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Worsening Oroville Dam Crisis: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

Discussion in 'Coffee Shack (Daily News/Economy)' started by Goldhedge, Feb 16, 2017.



  1. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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    Worsening Oroville Dam Crisis: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

    [​IMG]

    Later tonight, the first of 3 major storms will hit the Oroville area. Will the Oroville Dam hold? We collectively pray that it does.

    During the present crisis and largely due to the fact that Paul Preston and I were among the first to report on this, we have both attracted people, in an offiical capacity who want the truth to be told, even if they must keep their name secret in the procdess. Subsequently, I have managed to establish a number of off-the-record and on-the-record contacts in this process.

    In this article, I am going to present three scenarios that are highly representative of the three major viewpoints of this crisis, which I am labeling the good, the bad and the ugly.

    http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2...roville-dam-crisis-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly/
     
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  2. Professur

    Professur Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Bad reporting. The concrete dam isn't endangered. It's erosion of the earthen emergency spillway that's the real concern.
     
  3. ttazzman

    ttazzman Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter

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    there is a main concrete spillway that developed a hole in it and is seriously undermined that (was) working its way up the spillway ........in addition to the earthen emergency spillway which had a concrete top the flow over it was undermineing the concrete topper which would also be catestrophic...so its a multi-faceted issue involving concrete and earthen dam works.....the picture in the OPs post does not represent the problem at all
     
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  4. Thecrensh

    Thecrensh Gold Member Gold Chaser

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    I'm not even sure that pic is of the oroville dam (which is earthen, I believe). My company has been watching the rain forecast - as of this morning, another 4-5 inches of rain is expected in the watershed over the weekend. Not a good sign.

    What is really going to cause problem is the 3-5 inches of rain in about 12 hours that is projected to fall on the LA basin in Southern California. THAT is going to cause a lot of issues as well.
     
  5. historyrepete

    historyrepete Silver Member Silver Miner

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    In California ya got problems with rain. In California ya got problems with no rain. I think you got problems in California that secession won't fix
     
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  6. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Goldhedge

    Goldhedge Moderator Site Mgr Site Supporter

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  8. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    1) The hole in the main spillway is currently stable. The spillway hole is a half mile away from the main spillway outlet control structure. Erosion at the spillway hole has not been undermining, or eroding the main spillway toward the outlet control structure any further.

    2) They are preventing further erosion that could undermine the the so called emergency spillway and cause failure, if water flows over again, by laying rock and cementing it in place.




    3) A few good videos showing and explaining the situation even further








    4) The dam itself is not failing. The dam construction is a zoned earth fill dam, that has a base that spans a distance of at least a half mile. http://osp.mans.edu.eg/tahany/DAMS1.28.gif[​IMG]

    5) Here is the current water level http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO the goal is to keep it around the 850 foot level, and here is a webcam to visually see the water level https://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=29411
     
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  9. nickndfl

    nickndfl Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    They should freeze it like Fukushima.
     
  10. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Wake me up when the commie floaters start drifting past the cameras. I hate Komiefornia cesspool city communists with a passion.
     
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  11. searcher

    searcher Mother Lode Found Site Supporter ++ Mother Lode

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    On the edge of disaster: Full extent of the damage to the Oroville dam is revealed as officials stop the flow on the spillway showing that it is almost completely destroyed
    • Authorities stopped flow to the spillway after Oroville Lake water levels dropped, starting clean-up process
    • It revealed gaping hole and entire edge missing from the spillway, which takes water down from top of dam
    • Huge piles of grey rubble lie at the bottom of the spillway, which barges and excavators are now removing
    • Comes after nearly 200,000 people were evacuated from homes when the waterway broke earlier this month


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4263640/California-dams-outflow-stopped-clear-debris.html#ixzz4ZzbqEb3q
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
     
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  12. ErrosionOfAccord

    ErrosionOfAccord #1 Global Warmer Gold Chaser Site Supporter ++

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    To get proper material compaction and adhesion they will still need to dig a lot of dirt out of the area where the spillway came apart. We may not hear about it in our lifetimes but my guess is that the dam is mortally wounded.
     
  13. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    At least they now know where bedrock is located LOL.

    In the early 1980s, I remember when there were fears the Glen Canyon Dam would also fail due to erosion in the spillway tunnels. They determined that cavitation caused massive holes in the spillway.
    During repairs, they added air slots to create a cushion of air bubbles which absorb the shock of collapsing vapor cavities thus preventing damage to the spillway concrete.

    Could the Oroville Spillway failure also be due to cavitation even on open flat spillways?

    See the following analysis at http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3524221/posts?page=1708 (see posts 1735 through 1750) it does seem likely that cavitation may also be a factor.
    [​IMG]
    Where X is the damaged area due to cavitation after the spillway curve

    “Snippet”

    Everyone knows what happens when you drive too fast over a small rise, everyone knows what happens at the top of a hill on a roller coaster - you momentarily come out of your seat. This is what is happening to the water in the spillway. The water is, to whatever degree, flying away from the spillway at the first inflection point and colliding with the spillway at the second inflection point.

    The force is tremendous.

    According to a Los Angles Times article "the spillway began breaking apart when its gates were opened Feb. 7, allowing 55,000 cubic feet of water per second to roar down the slope." At 70 degrees one cubic foot of water weights a little over 62 pounds. Colder water weighs more, but let's go with 62 pounds. 62 x 55,000 = 3,410,000 pounds of water per second.

    According to this November 1974 California State Water Project Bulletin the width of the spillway is 178' 8". I'll leave it to engineers to determine how many pounds per square inch of spillway 3.4 million pounds of water per second can pound. To me it seems common sense, the convex curve of the spillway is the problem.​
     
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  14. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    Just took a look at the latest happenings at the Oroville dam because I find it interesting. I tried to embed the pictures but failed.



    As of March-14 approx. 1,075,000 (out of 1.5 million total I think) cubic yards of debris has been removed from the diversion pool.



    All available power plant turbines (5 of 6) are now operational. Water has been flowing through the power plant at >12800cfs since March-9

    At 2pm March-15 the current reservoir elevation is 862.61 ft. Water level is now >24 ft. above the lowest level reached (837.98 on Feb-27) before shutting down the main flood control spillway for repairs. http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?ORO

    From what I gather; the spillway will be re-opened once the 865ft level is reached, and the spillway flow rate will necessarily be at 40,000cfs to limit undermining what remains of the spillway.


    Photos of the prevention measures taken on the spillway include spraying shotcrete on the face under the spillway concrete.



    Photos of continuing emergency spillway repairs.


    Note that there are nearly 500 pictures at https://pixel-ca-dwr.photoshelter.c...g/G00003YCcmDTx48Y/Oroville-Spillway-Incident
     
  15. ttazzman

    ttazzman Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter

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    someone made a killing on redi-mix concrete.......hopefully they had enough brains to set up a dump area for the debris so it could be either screened or run though a portable crusher to reuse for fill or cement agregate for repairs
     
  16. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    The spillway was reopened on Friday 17 at noon and it looks like everything is okay so far.



    The water level is dropping at around 4ft per day thus the spillway will be open for 6 days or so to reach the 835ft level in the reservoir.
     
  17. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    Oroville Update 7 June More Blasting, First Pour
     
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  18. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    Cha-ching, cha-ching, cha-ching...the Kommiefornia taxpayers are getting a real butt raping
     
  19. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    Yes, the costs keep mounting as costs usually do during emergencies and urgent situations. Crises don't come cheap.

    The winning bid for repairs was 275 million over the next two years (which did exceed DWR’s own estimate by 55 million). The total cost will be around 400 million.

    Per your comment and your profession as an Architect, it sounds like you have a good understanding of what repairs and upgrades need to be done, along with knowledge of credible construction costs.

    What in your expert opinion should the winning bid have been instead?
     
  20. ttazzman

    ttazzman Midas Member Midas Member Site Supporter

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    (grin) as a retired commercial/industrial contractor and PE....i await with baited breath for a architectural answer to this one :)

    i would say that i would have no friggin clue given the information presented ...but i guarantte the work could be performed much cheaper if they would just fire the architect (ha ha ...lol) ....and at least 20% less if they worked under a private style contract in lieu of a State/Federal contract...which includes things like background checks for employees...prevailing wages...possibly LEED...etc

    (just givin you chit Shootist.....im sure the damn dam failed due to a idiot engineer LOL)
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2017
  21. the_shootist

    the_shootist The war is here on our doorstep! Midas Member Site Supporter ++

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    They should have built it right the first time and sufficiently funded the maintenance of it after that. Governments however don't think like that. You can't put a price on stupid, greedy and incompetent.

    That's what I think sir!
     
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  22. Crockett

    Crockett Seeker

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    Phase 1 of spillway was completed Nov. 1st

    This compilation of drone footage from May 20, 2017 through November 1, 2017 highlights the incredible transformation of Lake Oroville’s gated flood control (main) spillway throughout the recovery effort. Kiewit Infrastructure has been the lead contractor completing this massive construction effort to repair and reconstruct the main spillway by Nov. 1, 2017 to handle flows of 100,000 cubic-feet per second this winter.
     

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