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“Bad Time to Buy a Home” & “Good Time to Sell a Home

Voodoo

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Whites with any common sense at all are fleeing the cities. Blackrock, the chinese, and hedge funds are buying up all the supply so they can further turn the American people into serfs / slaves who have to rent from them and are unable to build independent wealth.

Those "assets" that the big guys are buying can easily turn into liabilities. And they could lose big time.
 

hoarder

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Those "assets" that the big guys are buying can easily turn into liabilities. And they could lose big time.
When money is issued out of thin air, those doing the issuing are risking nothing.
 

BigJim#1-8

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Friends put their house, 5 acres, 1600 sq ft, nothing special. Nice view, very steep property.
Sold in 1 day for $275.000.00 sight unseen.
 

Ensoniq

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This process reminds of the game from childhood “the straw that broke the camel’s back”

Everything is fine, until it isn’t

 

hernancortes

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2008 value: About 35k

Eagledale? Once upon a time used to be decent.
 

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We bought at the bottom in 2012 and held two properties for a year until our previous homes price recovered a bit. We bought this foreclosure just over 100k and got a heck of a deal. With our upgrades the realtor said she could sell it for 500k no issue. We are thinking of moving. There's no need for so much house when the boy leaves in a few years. Hopefully we get a decent price when we're ready.

Our issue would be where do we go that isn't just as crazy expensive until retirement. I'm thinking we will buy a rental but even a run down duplex is expensive around here.
 

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Our issue would be where do we go that isn't just as crazy expensive until retirement.
Same dilemma everyone seems to have, You could buy rentals in Baltimore, Detroit or Atlanta. With everyone moving out they must be cheap.
:belly laugh:
 

Casey Jones

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When the balloon bursts the numbers will change very quickly, the dollars will drain like water circling the drain of a kitchen sink
I'm wondering about that.

The move of oligarchs into the residential real-estate market, via REITs and investment pooling vehicles like BlackRock...it's a game changer.

I don't have a read for how that's going to affect prices in an Everything collapse. Whether the dollar will retain enough value that the cronies getting the New Money can keep on buying up neighborhoods.
 

davycoppitt

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Neighbor up at the lake is putting there place on the market. Nothing special and they are starting at 515k. I swear less than two years ago it would have been under 300k.
Just an update. This cabin sold for over asking the first week with 8 offers. Again nice place but nothing special.
 

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House my son bought for 277k last August is "valued" @ 296k on Zillow. (Not planning on selling... Took a long time to find what he wanted - actually a full year after I gave him $100k for a down-payment... (which I did for his sister too... and she took a year too, but in Sweden...)
btw I'm available for adoption ...
 

Juristic Person

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This^^
Why sell if you cant upgrade? Cash out and wait for the bust, renting a cheap place and living among the riffraff? Pay huge premiums on gold and silver to dodge inflation, hoping the riffraff doesnt find where you hid it?

Scary situation to be renting right now. Rental costs have DOUBLED in my area over the last 5 years.
 

hoarder

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Most of us here are probably not momentum investors, I certainly have never been. Contrary to my habits, I did put a cabin under contract in late May which has not yet closed due to title company delays. In those 10 weeks, I noticed that Montana MLS inventories have increased about 15%, which to me suggests that the momentum is fizzling out. I don't think I want to hold it very long.
If there is a "brutal correction" in the near term, it would be the shortest real estate cycle I have ever seen. There is just no telling what the banking elite have up their sleeves.
 

Ensoniq

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The Dems are repealing the SALT tax as part of the latest spending boondoggle

If mortgage interest is again deductible beyond that puny limit, it will increase buy side demand for sure (affordability)
 

davycoppitt

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Accepted an offer on our house today. Only had two offers and sold to the neighbors daughter. Got 465k. At the beginning of the Summer I bet it would have been closer to 500k. Paid $317 2.5 years ago and put about 15k into it.

All settled in the triplex and going well. Should be able to ride out any storm here. We took the bottom two units and kept a nice old lady up top to help pay the bills.
 

dacrunch

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Therecare no cheap rents.

In a New England town where I have my rental units, a family member visiting the area asked me if he could sleep in his rental car in my parking lot, since the cheapest available motel rooms were $250/night due to all the city-dwellers flocking there... That was a few days ago...

If I lived nearby, I'd probably turn all my rentals into AirBnBs... and rake in 5-8x more than long-term tenants...
 

Casey Jones

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Most of us here are probably not momentum investors, I certainly have never been. Contrary to my habits, I did put a cabin under contract in late May which has not yet closed due to title company delays. In those 10 weeks, I noticed that Montana MLS inventories have increased about 15%, which to me suggests that the momentum is fizzling out. I don't think I want to hold it very long.
If there is a "brutal correction" in the near term, it would be the shortest real estate cycle I have ever seen. There is just no telling what the banking elite have up their sleeves.
ZeroHedge had a piece this afternoon of a Canadian couple who got sent home to work...they were in Toronto and wanted out. Bought a house two hours away, and thought that's how they'd live.

They've both been called back to work in the corporate cubicles, surprise, surprise. And now they need to sell what they just bought.

And they cannot.

I expect the same is happening here. I don't know where you're at; I expect not far from me. Missoula County was going Zoom-Boom crazy; but perhaps with sudden orders back, many of these Cal-tag invaders will drive back from whence they came.

And perhaps prices will come down a bit, or at least stabilize while inflation catches up.

Alas, I don't think rents will drop anytime soon. Now that, who-has-to-pay has become a political game, the responsible tenants will be carrying the owners for the deadbeats. Not unlike emergency-room costs...someone with insurance or money, has to pay for his treatment, and the hundred indigents who came in that day, plus the Medicaid patients whose program only pays a fraction of the costs.

This is what happens when an economy is organized, not around fundamentals and basic needs of the actors, but out of the caprices of the powerful and the regulators.
 

Ensoniq

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That was Northern Californian in the 90s (Milpitas area)

Too expensive to live anywhere near the town. Smart PhD’s had motor homes parked everywhere. Drove them to the desert every weekend to see family, lived and worked out of the camper during the week
 

Casey Jones

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That was Northern Californian in the 90s (Milpitas area)

Too expensive to live anywhere near the town. Smart PhD’s had motor homes parked everywhere. Drove them to the desert every weekend to see family, lived and worked out of the camper during the week
I vaguely remember that.

I was in the Navy, on an aircraft carrier at Alameda NAS. Between deployments (this was before the never-ending deployment that we've seen for twenty years) married enlisted could and did live in town with family. Base housing was limited. They'd get a Housing Allowance (with a supplement, the Bay Area was the most-expensive for Navy personnel in the continental US) and "commuted rations" (food allowance).

So was shore housing, limited. We had guys living in Milpitas and further, in all directions. Often they would stay onboard during the week - and since two weekends out of four, they'd have "duty" (remain on the ship for the twenty-four hours, for any emergency including sudden orders to sail) and could not leave...they were paying this money for houses or rent, and couldn't even go home!
 

dacrunch

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Alas, I don't think rents will drop anytime soon. Now that, who-has-to-pay has become a political game, the responsible tenants will be carrying the owners for the deadbeats.

Might be time to consider going back to renting out through Section 8 - where the TAXPAYERS pay the deadbeats' rent (but trash the place and the neighborhood...)
 

hoarder

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I expect the same is happening here. I don't know where you're at; I expect not far from me. Missoula County was going Zoom-Boom crazy; but perhaps with sudden orders back, many of these Cal-tag invaders will drive back from whence they came.
Orders back could certainly be an issue. How much it affects the local real estate market remains to be seen. Methinks not very much. A large percentage of those working at home are self employed.
Big corps have been paying employees a considerable premium for working in expensive shitholes like LA. They must be thinking there is an opportunity to stop paying that premium, now that some of those employees have a lower cost of living.
 

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Orders back could certainly be an issue. How much it affects the local real estate market remains to be seen. Methinks not very much. A large percentage of those working at home are self employed.
Big corps have been paying employees a considerable premium for working in expensive shitholes like LA. They must be thinking there is an opportunity to stop paying that premium, now that some of those employees have a lower cost of living.

read an article where some of the techs were changing their spend on employees, changing it to match up their interpretation of cost of living dependent on where the person is domiciled

meaning, a mess of them were getting pay cuts if they were not near mother ship
 

Fiat Metaler

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You have a couple of trends working in different directions temporarily.

-People are starting to be called back. Some of the San Francisco techs are lowering your pay if you relocated outside of San Francisco.
-state and local taxes - to reverse this would be a tax cut for the rich, but if it happens it makes it cheaper to live in large metro areas. Not cheaper than the exurbs, but the Trump cap on this deduction was essentially a tax increase for those with high state and local taxes. So this would eliminte one of the incentives for moving out of the city.
-interest rates - rates fell from 3.75% at the start of 2020 to 2.75% at the end. Since January of 2021, they bumped up to 3.25% and then fell back to 2.80% recently. This is a huge determinant of one's monthly payment, so rates no longer falling and then rising would explain why home price appreciation stalled.

click for chart of mortgage rates: https://ycharts.com/indicators/30_year_mortgage_rate

Still, I think the medium and longer term trend of higher home prices remains in place:
-Technology still allows people to work many jobs remotely, and employees and employers have gotten used to this
-there is huge pent up demand. Very few homes have moved for the last 18 months,
-Most or all of the reasons to get out of the city center still make sense
-Existing housing in the suburbs and exurbs is priced attractively relative to the cost of construction - prices have a lot of room to catch up, perhaps 50% or more.
 

Juristic Person

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In a New England town where I have my rental units, a family member visiting the area asked me if he could sleep in his rental car in my parking lot, since the cheapest available motel rooms were $250/night due to all the city-dwellers flocking there... That was a few days ago...

If I lived nearby, I'd probably turn all my rentals into AirBnBs... and rake in 5-8x more than long-term tenants...

You should really consider doing that. Financial freedom.
 

Ensoniq

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You should really consider doing that. Financial freedom.

Maybe give the guy a letter confirming he’s a hired security guard ($1/year) so the cops can’t hassle him for vagrancy for sleeping in his car in a community
 

davycoppitt

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Just observation but looks like housing market slowing down in MN. May just be the season. People who bought our house still have no offers on theirs. Been on the market for 2 months now. Also starting to see price cuts.
 

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Just observation but looks like housing market slowing down in MN. May just be the season. People who bought our house still have no offers on theirs. Been on the market for 2 months now. Also starting to see price cuts.
Not here. The total number of MLS listings in Montana has been decreasing the last 2 months. Sales of lots and small acreage is crazy. Selling for 3 or 4 times what they were 3 years ago and there is no one available to build homes on them, not even a mobile home/manufactured home manufacturer within hundreds of miles of these lots.
 

Casey Jones

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Not here. The total number of MLS listings in Montana has been decreasing the last 2 months. Sales of lots and small acreage is crazy. Selling for 3 or 4 times what they were 3 years ago and there is no one available to build homes on them, not even a mobile home/manufactured home manufacturer within hundreds of miles of these lots.
Everyone wants to come into free, open Montana

...and turn it into the same sort of hellhole they just left.

Same thing they did in Texas and Colorado.
 

Ensoniq

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Neighbor bought a house for 775k 2 years ago

Sold in 1 week for 1,29 mm

Almost as bad as SanDiego in the mid 90s. People would line up on Saturday at the sales office hoping to buy one of the 5 new homes released for sale, that hadn’t been built yet.

I feel for the kids just starting out. That’s a lifetime weight around your neck if you do take the plunge
 
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Casey Jones

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I feel for the kids just starting out.
For hundreds of reasons, and not just shelter costs.

As far as home buying...I came to a conclusion. Schitte gonna be gettin real, REAL fast. I can swoop in and pick up bargains...with my stacks, after banks base loans on Social Credit scores, and we have a better idea where Rule of Law will survive.
 

TAEZZAR

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Neighbor bought a house for 775k 2 years ago

Sold is 1 week for 1,29 mm

Almost as bad as SanDiego in the mid 90s. People would line up on Saturday at the sales office hoping to buy one of the 5 new homes released for sale, that hadn’t been built yet.

I feel for the kids just starting out. That’s a lifetime weight around your neck if you do take the plunge
We ran into that a year ago in Coos Bay. Just another reason to rebuild on site.
We also saw that in the mid 90s in Huntington Beach, sold in 2000 for 450K & by 2010 in was over a million & today it is 1.5 million.
Something is really wrong !!!
 

Voodoo

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Not here. The total number of MLS listings in Montana has been decreasing the last 2 months. Sales of lots and small acreage is crazy. Selling for 3 or 4 times what they were 3 years ago and there is no one available to build homes on them, not even a mobile home/manufactured home manufacturer within hundreds of miles of these lots.

The large areas tend to lead the markets. All housing slows down some after the school year starts and people start thinking about winter. I think inventory levels are definitely starting to build again.

I will say that after just covering 700 miles of I80 in the Midwest, I saw a LOT of California license plates. From small Toyota's to large RV's.
 

Voodoo

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For hundreds of reasons, and not just shelter costs.

As far as home buying...I came to a conclusion. Schitte gonna be gettin real, REAL fast. I can swoop in and pick up bargains...with my stacks, after banks base loans on Social Credit scores, and we have a better idea where Rule of Law will survive.

When I started investing and stacking silver I said my sell price and I think it overshoots. I anticipated being able to buy a house with a 100 oz bar. And I think we not only see silver prices reset but house prices may decline Huuugge if we see a significant decline in population.
 

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The large areas tend to lead the markets. All housing slows down some after the school year starts and people start thinking about winter. I think inventory levels are definitely starting to build again.

I will say that after just covering 700 miles of I80 in the Midwest, I saw a LOT of California license plates. From small Toyota's to large RV's.
I think the driving force right now is White flight from BLM/Antifa, the large populated areas are what many buyers are running from.


When I started investing and stacking silver I said my sell price and I think it overshoots. I anticipated being able to buy a house with a 100 oz bar. And I think we not only see silver prices reset but house prices may decline Huuugge if we see a significant decline in population.
When baby boomers die off, there will be a significant decline in population, among other things.
 

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Probably not the smartest financial move, but I need a plan B. Gavin Newsom requiring kids be vaccinated was our line in the sand.

I am taking equity out of my California home and going to make an all cash offer on a 3/2 log cabin in Arkansas with 5 acres for 220. Nice secluded spot in the woods. Cant wait to shoot on my own damn property. Wish me luck! Going to be a dual resident for awhile and will work remotely most of the year. Interesting times ahead.
 

hoarder

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Probably not the smartest financial move, but I need a plan B. Gavin Newsom requiring kids be vaccinated was our line in the sand.

I am taking equity out of my California home and going to make an all cash offer on a 3/2 log cabin in Arkansas with 5 acres for 220. Nice secluded spot in the woods. Cant wait to shoot on my own damn property. Wish me luck! Going to be a dual resident for awhile and will work remotely most of the year. Interesting times ahead.
Just about any 3/2 log cabin on 5 acres in Western Montana would be over a half million.