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“Bad Time to Buy a Home” & “Good Time to Sell a Home

Silvergun

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Just about any 3/2 log cabin on 5 acres in Western Montana would be over a half million.
Ya...I dont doubt that. Everyone out here in my tiny world seems to be focused on Idaho and the prices are ridiculous now. My good friend is LEO and they just bought a new construction 3/2 in a subdivision for 400k. They want to sell it already and pick up another house in a subdivision with ALMOST an acre with an RV garage and all this fancy junk for 850k...I told him he's nuts. Thats ridiculous CA prices now...

No one is talking about Arkansas that's why its high on my list.
 

hoarder

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Ya...I dont doubt that. Everyone out here in my tiny world seems to be focused on Idaho and the prices are ridiculous now. My good friend is LEO and they just bought a new construction 3/2 in a subdivision for 400k. They want to sell it already and pick up another house in a subdivision with ALMOST an acre with an RV garage and all this fancy junk for 850k...I told him he's nuts. Thats ridiculous CA prices now...

No one is talking about Arkansas that's why its high on my list.
I like that region. I used to own an off grid hunting cabin on 75 acres near Piedmont, Missouri. Missouri has slightly better demographics and lower taxes than Arkansas. Beautiful country both.
 

Fiat Metaler

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In suburban Atlanta, homes are going for 4-5% over asking price the first weekend they are listed.
 

hoarder

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In suburban Atlanta, homes are going for 4-5% over asking price the first weekend they are listed.
That's contrary to the pattern. Large multicultural urban areas are generally where people are moving out of to drive up prices elsewhere. Who is buying them?
 

Lancers32

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In suburban Atlanta, homes are going for 4-5% over asking price the first weekend they are listed.

Same thing in my area. Tech jobs increasing down here. Not planning on selling but you have to believe these people buying at these levels are gonna get crushed at some point.
 

dacrunch

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Same thing in my area. Tech jobs increasing down here. Not planning on selling but you have to believe these people buying at these levels are gonna get crushed at some point.
Especially if the "jab depopulation program" reduces "home-buyers" by a large percentage.
Crashing prices - huge oversupply...
 

Stop Making Cents

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Same thing in my area. Tech jobs increasing down here. Not planning on selling but you have to believe these people buying at these levels are gonna get crushed at some point.
No worries. That's what the Pedo Joe budget reconciliation is for. Unlimited money for Afghan "refugees", and plenty of free housing for them in YOUR suburb, subsidized with YOUR money. Hispanics are starting to turn Republican, so they must be looking for new 3rd worlders to flood us with. Muslims are just what the satanists ordered.
 

hoarder

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No worries. That's what the Pedo Joe budget reconciliation is for. Unlimited money for Afghan "refugees", and plenty of free housing for them in YOUR suburb, subsidized with YOUR money. Hispanics are starting to turn Republican, so they must be looking for new 3rd worlders to flood us with. Muslims are just what the satanists ordered.
One thing to note about Muslims...in their own countries they are all staunchly anti-Communist. It generally changes when they come here. The songs of wealth redistribution ring sweetly in their ears.
 

Fiat Metaler

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Same thing in my area. Tech jobs increasing down here. Not planning on selling but you have to believe these people buying at these levels are gonna get crushed at some point.

I think prices have a long way to run. In a lot of cities, there is little land for new homes, and the cost of constructing new is well above even the inflated prices people are paying for second-hand homes. Also, since COVID people are splurging on homes. People are upgrading, renovating, expanding.

Homes close to downtown - different forces may be at work there.

Homes out in the country - I think demand will be strong. Also, with labor and supply shortages, an existing home compares favorably to build it from scratch.
 

Fiat Metaler

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I'm seeing something interesting in my area - not sure if it applies elsewhere - houses are being priced on age, as if they were depreciating assets.

My house is about 20 years old, and its market value is about 20% higher than houses that are 30 years old. Next subdivision over is 10 years old, prices there are 20% higher. There are a few houses here and there that are 5 years old or less, those are another 20% higher.
 

Casey Jones

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I'm seeing something interesting in my area - not sure if it applies elsewhere - houses are being priced on age, as if they were depreciating assets.

My house is about 20 years old, and its market value is about 20% higher than houses that are 30 years old. Next subdivision over is 10 years old, prices there are 20% higher. There are a few houses here and there that are 5 years old or less, those are another 20% higher.
They're being priced on supply and demand.

If the market wants to pay more for newer homes...that's demand. A silly metric, but that's the market speaking.

Why? Poor education on the product, is my guess. Most likely it's reams of first-time buyers who don't understand that a structure need not be a depreciating durable good, that with care it can last indefinitely.
 

dacrunch

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I'm seeing something interesting in my area - not sure if it applies elsewhere - houses are being priced on age, as if they were depreciating assets.

My house is about 20 years old, and its market value is about 20% higher than houses that are 30 years old. Next subdivision over is 10 years old, prices there are 20% higher. There are a few houses here and there that are 5 years old or less, those are another 20% higher.
More recent houses are usually 2x6 construction, with more energy efficient insulation & windows, "up-to-code" electric & plumbing & heating, and need less repairs/updates... One reason my son bought a 15 year-old house instead of a fixer-upper...

My daughter's house is 60 years old, and is getting a LOT of renovations... but the view and location are AAA...

My house was built in the 1940's - and I had to spend a year living in the basement completely renovating the "living space" above from A to Z... including a new roof...
 

hammerhead

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My oldest is out looking to buy. Would be paying less owning as compared to renting. The houses up for sale in her price range are closer to 100 years old and they are selling. Many on the market have had recent updates. She nor I have looked at houses in the mid to upper 200's. I'd like to think they are a better value.
 

hoarder

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More recent houses are usually 2x6 construction, with more energy efficient insulation & windows, "up-to-code" electric & plumbing & heating, and need less repairs/updates... One reason my son bought a 15 year-old house instead of a fixer-upper...

My daughter's house is 60 years old, and is getting a LOT of renovations... but the view and location are AAA...

My house was built in the 1940's - and I had to spend a year living in the basement completely renovating the "living space" above from A to Z... including a new roof...
True about insulation, but houses up to newer codes in the last 4 years are no better, and instead of plywood floors and wood joists and roof decking and wood joists they have chipboard that swells when it gets wet.
 

dacrunch

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True about insulation, but houses up to newer codes in the last 4 years are no better, and instead of plywood floors and wood joists and roof decking and wood joists they have chipboard that swells when it gets wet.
Well, my son's a builder/carpenter, so he was able to check the quality of the construction...
 

Voodoo

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I'm seeing something interesting in my area - not sure if it applies elsewhere - houses are being priced on age, as if they were depreciating assets.

My house is about 20 years old, and its market value is about 20% higher than houses that are 30 years old. Next subdivision over is 10 years old, prices there are 20% higher. There are a few houses here and there that are 5 years old or less, those are another 20% higher.

House ARE depreciating assets.

Sometimes obfuscated by underlying Land values.
 

Ensoniq

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House ARE depreciating assets.

Sometimes obfuscated by underlying Land values.

I know the tax definition and the generally accepted thinking is that a home is a depreciating asset. Maybe I’ve been lucky to experience negative depreciation for all these years. My current home, in fiat dollars us valued at >50% more than I paid for 5 years ago.

I’m not bucking the experts but if you consider that you have to live somewhere and there’s a cost of doing so, adding that back to equation has to get you above the break even point, a car loses half its value in 4 years

Rent is like setting your money on fire. Owning homes will make you wealthy in the long run = my opinion
 

Casey Jones

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Rent is like setting your money on fire. Owning homes will make you wealthy in the long run = my opinion
That's allowing for a society that respects and protects property and property rights.

There's a lot of small landlords right now, defaulting on their own mortgages. Because tenants were protected from rent payments for over a year; still may be. I haven't kept up with the fluid state of law-by-executive-order.

This will happen again. Property ownership is a fine thing, but it presupposes that government will allow it and protect your ownership. That's no longer assured.