1050 Line in the Sand

[FunnyMoney]

I believe $1050 is the line in the sand for gold, whatever that equates to in the Chinese currency at current exchange rates, well that's the line in the sand and I don't think we will see the price any lower than this or about where they were yesterday.

Essentially, we were there yesterday....

A very aggressive prediction, thanks for sharing.

I believe there is a line in the sand for gold at $1050. So essentially we are there right now.
For silver I only focus on the physical price as what can happen with the ETFs and Comex can be different. I don't believe you will be able to ever again purchase physical silver under $11 and I would be surprised if we go lower than 13.13.

Maybe we should start a poll and ask members for the bottom price in this cycle. Those polls used to be spot on at GIM1.

I don't believe it's a coincidence that China was officially accepted yesterday into the SDR (gang of 4 is now gang of 5). Also note that we saw a significant push down to right about $1050 when the Hong Kong market opened after the weekend close and then from there the POG has been incrementally rising.

 

[REO 54]

My gut says lower before an upward move really happens. There is so much dysfunctional economics out there,it's hard to believe that gold is priced where it its at, but what I have learned over the past 5 years since I took the "red pill" is don't underestimate the proverbial PTB.

It's a cartoon world out there for those of us who belive in common sense.

They seem to be behind much of this dysfunction by design. What I'm trying to watch out for is the unintended consequences of their actions and be prepared accordingly.

I know nothing. I am a mushroom.

 

[Goldhedge]

I'd say 'higher', if there was no manipulation via the COMEX, but we all know that 300:1 (paper:gold) odds is reality, so it's a pipe dream.

 

[FunnyMoney]

Gold back to 1050 , it this the double bottom? Or do we push through to 1030? Physical premiums have remained about the same, they don't seem to have moved any lower which, along with a slightly stronger Yuan, are about the only good signs as oil, silver and the PGMs are also down right now.

Update, same day, but now the opening of the Chinese market (morning in China):
Take a look...

I'm still fine at 13.13 so I'm still more worried about gold, 1050 again ,

Right now, we are back to that 1050 again as the Chinese people wake up to bargain prices not seen in 6 years (except for early in the morning of their start to this week's work week. So this is going to be very interesting to see what the Chinese do as their day begins.

If prices move up from here as the Chinese go about their day, then that will be a very bullish sign for gold. It will be their people waking up to another chance at a bargain price, not enough to scare those that bought in their morning 3 days ago, but low enough to bring additional buyers in for a second chance at all time lows.

Those who bought that morning in China 3 days ago are now down just a few pennies. This is going to be very interesting. I believe China is in full control of the gold market now. They are importing well over 1000 tons per year. They are the number one miner in the world and all of that production is required to be sold to their central bank. They have all the big paper market connections in place since years ago. Are they going to kick off the biggest bull market in metals history? I think so. JMHO, DYODD.

 

[TAEZZAR]

Gold back to 1050 , it this the double bottom? Or do we push through to 1030? Physical premiums have remained about the same, they don't seem to have moved any lower which, along with a slightly stronger Yuan, are about the only good signs as oil, silver and the PGMs are also down right now.

I'm thinking they can only take it so low, until a buying frenzy takes over.
We have to be damned close, I hope.

 

[Montecristo]

Under $1000 within 3 months.

But, what do I know. Read my prediction that I posted as my signature way back when. I leave it there to remind myself that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

 

[TAEZZAR]

Under $1000 within 3 months.

But, what do I know. Read my prediction that I posted as my signature way back when. I leave it there to remind myself that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Join the club !

 

[gringott]

Hate to say it from a stacker perspective, but I do believe they can take it below $1K, if I were to speculate, I would guess $920 for a bottom. As a buyer, I would be rejoicing.

But I also don't know anything and the magic 8 ball isn't talking. No dreams either.

Started buying silver again, the prices have been just too good to pass up.

 

[CrimsonGuardJay]

Up almost $19, good stuff.

 

[TAEZZAR]

Up 25.90, FunnyMoney may have called it.

 

[REO 54]

Up 25.90, FunnyMoney may have called it.

Nope. Not yet....

 

[Merlin]

Look, I was buying gold at $410 an ounce back in 2004, so who knows how much lower the price could go. But I'm not losing money yet :)

 

[the_shootist]

Look, I was buying gold at $410 an ounce back in 2004, so who knows how much lower the price could go. But I'm not losing money yet :)

One thing that $410 an ounce gold and 2004 have in common....you won't see either one again

 

[FunnyMoney]

12-9-0

12 members have called "early this month" as the bottom for gold (~1050).
9 members believe we see more USD POG push down, of 3-4 percent or more from current levels.
0 members believe that the POG will sit around this level for many years to come.

2 members (Montecristo, gringott) have also made a specific prognosis post for how the POG resolves from these levels over the MT/LT: both members expecting we go under $1000 (but also may be expecting good moves up following).


Current Status of POG:
Current level for gold is about $1075, but is a recent relative small amount higher than that if measured in Yuan (the Chinese currency has been weak against the dollar so far this week and last).


We have now retraced nicely from a recent optimistic spike up off the 1050. Let's see if we can get more members to predict...

 

[FunnyMoney]

Late night update:

Price down some more, we're at about $1069 and the Yuan is also down but somewhat less. This is playing right into the hands of the Chinese still. I listened to a radio interview of Stephen Leeb (I'm not able to provide link on that one because of copyright issues but it was found at Eric King's website) where Leeb talks about how the Chinese love to gamble and just wait until they start gambling on gold. He didn't say this, but my feeling is that under that scenario, it will be like China is the house (including the Chinese people that are gambling on the POG too) and the rest of the world is going to be the drunken tourists.

If that's the case, then the current setup fits in perfectly: On this last pullback we're watching, gold priced in Yuan is now back to a pretty good deal, although it is still comfortably higher than the last 2 bargain lows we saw, just prior to the Asian market open of the POG. This setup keeps those 2 groups in confirmation that they got a good deal; and for new incoming buyers and those gamblers who were smart enough to take profits at the recent highs several days back - well they're now encouraged to get in now or back in.

If I was China, and if I was controlling the POG, this is setting up just the way I would want it to, for keeping the "house" making the most money and for making the "house shills" able to see and take in the easy bets.

 

[REO 54]

Honestly FM , I don't care what the price does anymore. I gather what I can and go from there.

 

[honu5050]

gold prices being down have not affected the general market everything still cheap and high priced in my opinion what's going on with the low price can be correlated to causing more chaos within the general public the low income people more so than buyers of precious metalsblack gold oil is also down yet I see no effect in the price of hamburger eggs cetera there's a plan be sure of that hope you bought in early imagine all those that bought in at 2000 Plus per oz ! mini I presume cannot sit on it so they're taking a loss selling with these computers it's so easy to predict outcomes and incomes in sectors or grids etc so you can target your mark.

 

[CrimsonGuardJay]

gold prices being down have not affected the general market everything still cheap and high priced in my opinion what's going on with the low price can be correlated to causing more chaos within the general public the low income people more so than buyers of precious metalsblack gold oil is also down yet I see no effect in the price of hamburger eggs cetera there's a plan be sure of that hope you bought in early imagine all those that bought in at 2000 Plus per oz ! mini I presume cannot sit on it so they're taking a loss selling with these computers it's so easy to predict outcomes and incomes in sectors or grids etc so you can target your mark.

Many people did buy a lot in the 1800+ range, the majority of what I've done is between 1100-1250.

 

[Biot]

This concerns me right now. If I'm planning to buy physical bullion, is it too risky to wait into 2106 on the recent news of sub $1000 an ounce?

Does anyone see any chance of an overnight, permanent hike in gold prices right after the new year that catches everyone off guard?

 

[FunnyMoney]

This concerns me right now. If I'm planning to buy physical bullion, is it too risky to wait into 2106 on the recent news of sub $1000 an ounce?

Does anyone see any chance of an overnight, permanent hike in gold prices right after the new year that catches everyone off guard?

If it is true what I mentioned above about Leeb's take on gambling ambitions in China, then I would expect a series of technical stair step moves and nothing really big until much later down the road. That would be the house play and that would make the gamblers (traders) with an upside bias easy money for a significant period. Think about the way we moved off the bottom from around the 300 range in 2001, to above the 550 area in 2006, that would be what I would study for picking bottoms if you want to average in over the next few months or even a 12-24 months or so time frame if that thesis does stand. This would give you the ability to go in big time, if a big push down below $1000 is obtainable by TPTB and nothing is off the table when your talking a controlled world of finance.

Still, there's a lot of black swans possible, and my opinion, JMHO, is the big India buy many years back on the 3rd run over 1000, will remain an historic event for them.

 

[Biot]

then I would expect a series of technical stair step moves and nothing really big until much later down the road.

So this means that China is betting on a rise in gold, but we are in no hurry to buy at this current price because it will last for months? (I'm thinking up to the US election) So that means there is no risk in waiting for the hypothetical sub 1000 price for the next few months?

Think about the way we moved off the bottom from around the 300 range in 2001, to above the 550 area in 2006, that would be what I would study for picking bottoms if you want to average in over the next few months

Are you saying that we are going to follow similar trends of increase?

I'm literally thinking of something like the Great Depression, I'd wake up seeing gold at $2000 permanently and going up.

 

[FunnyMoney]

Um, well , Biot, been doing this 'analysis' thing , if you can call it that, for about 7000 posts and dozens of years. We kind of assume a lot of things here at the "freedom forums". Maybe you remember the polls from the GIM1 days? They were quite often correct, actually more than just "quite often" if I remember correctly more like "always."

Here at GIM2, inputs are only a fraction of what they were there, so you've got a lot more work cut out for you. I was quite good at my predictions at GIM1 with a number of markets. With gold bottoms about as perfect as can be, but I was terrible with the tops.

Anyway, a lot of smart retirees have long since put most of their savings into tangible and portable assets since the first big crash, you know, the dot-com days. So that's us, but 2 posts requires a few disclaimers: a SHTF moment can come any second; examine your own situation and the markets from all angles; put together a comprehensive plan; and DYODD!

Good luck and welcome to GIM2!



Poll Update:
2 more voters have come in predicting we see prices breaching the 1050 and no new voters sticking their neck out by calling the "turn already in" ... so 12-11-0 is the new count.

BTW: These type polls would have seen 50+ voters by this time easy, back in the GIM1 days. So DYODD strongly advised.

 

[Biot]

Maybe you remember the polls from the GIM1 days?

No, I wasn't there.

a SHTF moment can come any second

That's the crux of my question, is that much more likely at present than any time in the past 10 years? You get bombarded by newspieces predicting $1000 gold in 2016, in general do you trust that those 'experts' from a multitude of countries are giving their real opinions or all in it to get people with gold to sell this month? (or in my case people looking to buy not to before it spikes overnight) Again, whether they are correct is not the question, I just like to actually believe that they are saying what's on their minds.

Good luck and welcome to GIM2!

Thanks!

 

[FunnyMoney]

..., whether they are correct is not the question, I just like to actually believe that they are saying what's on their minds...

With the 21 voters here, for most of them, you can trust that they don't have an agenda. But for the MSM and a large part of alternative media, there seems to be enough BS and deception to fill the grand canyon.

Most of us believe gold and silver are money, thus the name "gold is money" - or maybe you've yet to ask yourself the basic questions: at what point do you get yourself outside the paper Ponzi scheme, when do you stop drinking the kool-aid, when do you think the world will come to realize the kings have no clothes, do you sleep better owning ounces or owning pesos/dollars/rubles or something else?

Start with the basics, work up from there, develop a plan - we've got our opinions and you can read them here at this forum and in this thread - all 21 of us... LOL.

Good Luck to you, again!

 

[Biot]

But for the MSM and a large part of alternative media, there seems to be enough BS and deception to fill the grand canyon.

Most of us believe gold and silver are money, thus the name "gold is money" - or maybe you've yet to ask yourself the basic questions: at what point do you get yourself outside the paper Ponzi scheme, when do you stop drinking the kool-aid, when do you think the world will come to realize the kings have no clothes, do you sleep better owning ounces or owning pesos/dollars/rubles or something else?

http://www.businesstoday.in/opinion...may-hit-1000-by-january-end/story/226929.html

It says a Dutch, Australian and Goldman Sachs all expect gold to go lower in 2016. Even with gold as money you would want to convert at the best time right?

Good Luck to you, again!

Thanks again!

 

[FunnyMoney]

http://www.businesstoday.in/opinion...may-hit-1000-by-january-end/story/226929.html

It says a Dutch, Australian and Goldman Sachs all expect gold to go lower in 2016. Even with gold as money you would want to convert at the best time right?


Thanks again!

I read the article before actually and I know the predictions coming from the MSM sources. But there are also other sources, including some in the MSM, that are calling 2016 as the turn for gold. I think the risks of gold going down another 20% are less than the risks of gold going up by 50%. Look at the buyers and look at the paper money. Buyers are coming in from many areas and are typically LT buyers. There's certainly no shortage of paper floating around out there.

What's the risk that buyers become sellers? It's quite small actually and statistically an extremely rare event. But what's the risk that large groups of wealthy people start getting worried about protecting their wealth and begin to turn in force toward gold? That risk is actually quite a big one IMHO, especially if the market starts to roll over or if faith in central bank paper money comes into question.

Also, look at the amount of paper debt in the world, the numbers are off the charts. But gold in your hand is the exact opposite of debt and has no counter party risk like all other assets. Everyone wants to get in at the exact bottom but going all in on a single purchase at the exact bottom is a pretty difficult strategy to actually pull off. It might already be impossible to pull off now that we've come off of 1050, if I'm right and if that was indeed the bottom of this cycle.

We've been waiting 4 years for this flush out to complete. If I'm right, and a new bull cycle run is in the works, then we could be looking at a very strong move coming soon. I am expecting ~1110 by year end or early January for confirmation of my thesis. If we get that, then for continued confirmation I would expect any subsequent pull back in January or early Feb. to go no lower than ~1073. However, if those numbers don't pan out, it will only make me less confident in my prediction, but it won't make me go the other way on the trade, unless something makes me see the world totally differently. So unless something completely out of the blue happens to make me feel better about paper money prospects, which I'm really not expecting, then if those numbers don't play out as soon, or in the way I think, I will simply chalk it up to gold's notorious volatility and will continue to stick with my 1050 call right up until I actually see it close below there.

Had I not felt strongly about 1050 as the bottom, I would have never started this poll.

 

[Biot]

I thought the rate hike was supposed to further suppress gold?

 

[Tiger44]

I'd be more concerned with the oil price. Would you rather have $12/barrel oil or $140/barrel oil? Most people are more concerned with what effects their wallets (happy at $1.20 gas and screaming at $4.00+ gas) and couldn't care less whether gold was $250 or $1,800.

 

[southfork]

900s gold and 12sh silver by months end, feds raising rates, economy is dead man walking, even service jobs are now dying, ppt will have to trash metals to take the eyes of the other markets.

 

[platinumdude]

900s gold and 12sh silver by months end, feds raising rates, economy is dead man walking, even service jobs are now dying, ppt will have to trash metals to take the eyes of the other markets.

Then what? Lower during 2016?

 

[FunnyMoney]

ok, just for the record, on 12/17 we hit 1050 again (1049 for a few minutes I believe), although the NY close was about 1054 and then the Asian markets were up afterward.

I think they call this bouncing along the bottom. Or well, that would be what it's called if the 1050 does hold.

 

[Biot]

Then what? Lower during 2016?

I'm also curious. What is the rationale behind the assertion that once gold breaks $1000 it will plunge even more significantly?

 

[southfork]

I'd say 'higher', if there was no manipulation via the COMEX, but we all know that 300:1 (paper:gold) odds is reality, so it's a pipe dream.

Crimex is about out of physical gold, there must be a mother of all wack jobs to the 900s to try to shake longs. Don't forget they can see all the stop loss orders.

 

[FunnyMoney]

The Asian precious metals exchanges are now getting significantly more volume than the Comex and London exchanges. China has finally been given a seat at the London fix and Yuan insertion into the IMF's SDR completes in the coming spring. In the spring of 2016 the Shanghai PM clearing exchange plans to be using Yuan and will be executing delivery on ALL requested long orders in real gold without delays or waiting periods.

China has followed through on all of their stated goals since the 2008 super crash. If you want to follow the metals markets, you better start looking east. 1050 still looks firm to me.

 

[Irons]

Presidential "election" coming up. If it looks like a republican is going to win all markets get sabotaged and oil goes way up.
If it looks like hitlery is going to win duckies and bunnies will shoot out of all of our asses. No change except a syrupy propaganda onslaught even worse than now.

If Trump somehow manages to not be accidented or suicided by the republican elite and it looks like he is going to win both republicans and democrats will work together to destroy the entire country so there is nothing left but martial law and ashes by January 2017.

Bottom line, nobody except a few of us weirdos care about Gold and silver. They will go down when the elite want to buy them and up when the elite want to unload them at a profit.
We're just along for the ride. We have zero control over anything. :smokin:

 

[FunnyMoney]

...Bottom line, nobody except a few of us weirdos care about Gold and silver. They will go down when the elite want to buy them and up when the elite want to unload them at a profit.
We're just along for the ride. We have zero control over anything.

I don't think it's that simple. China is letting the west and the ME destroy themselves while the buy things on the cheap. They are stockpiling all natural resources. They are the #1 miner of gold and the #3 miner of silver and have a 99% monopoly on the mining of rare metals. Add in these 2: they are net importers of gold and silver beyond the fact that all the mined metal remains within their borders; and their fiat currency is on track to be the #2 most desired currency in the world, coming mid next year.

I don't think gold is going to be controlled by anyone except possibly China and that is coming within the next 10 years easy, if not much sooner. Already China appears to be putting in a floor on Gold based in their own currency.

 

[DanG]

I expect $950 as a more likely support level. Not saying it's a bad investment and I'm still buying on down-spikes. But, with US interest rate increases and speculators continuing to move out of commodities into other assets - a $1050 low will be tested over next 12 months.

 

[tomexxtra]

You can't go by what I say.
I drew the originally line in the sand at the $1240 to $1250 mark.
That was in 2013, almost 3 years ago.
That's when Richard Russell was telling us about buying Gold,
we worried about the "Taliban",and the US Dept was 15 Trillion.
3 years later Sadly to say Richard passed away, we stopped
talking about the "Taliban', and we went 3 trillion over the
debt to 18 Trillion total.
This is what I do KNOW:
In 1908 a new Ford Model T cost about 40 ounces of Gold.
In 1964 a new Ford Mustang cost about 40 ounces of Gold.
In 2016 a new Ford Explorer cost about 40 ounces of Gold.
The Gold that you buy will Hold it's value.
WHY?
Because the most Gold ever mined in the World are held by the
Smartest people in the world: Central Bankers.
I want to be as smart as these bankers.
If it's dumb to hold gold, than I want to be as dumb as
these Bankers.
Also remember in 1980 gold shot up right when a Democratic
president was leaving office & a Republican went in.

 

[FunnyMoney]

The Gold that you buy will Hold it's value.
WHY?
Because the most Gold ever mined in the World are held by the
Smartest people in the world: Central Bankers.
I want to be as smart as these bankers.
If it's dumb to hold gold, than I want to be as dumb as
these Bankers.
...

Try to get a grip , tomexxtra, and try to be more careful who's name you put on the credits.

 

[chris_is_here]

Metals do not trade according to fundamentals, so there is no real theoretic limit to how they could fall. This is particularly true for silver, since much of it is still mined as a secondary byproduct of base metal mining. Hence, it has effectively little, if any, marginal cost.

Metal prices will always be speculative, driven by the three primary human emotions: greed, fear, and more greed.

All you can do is accumulate them for the day when they will be needed and hope you have enough when the time comes. Everything in between is bullshit.