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1050 Line in the Sand

What Will Gold Do For Dec. 2015 and Beyond?


  • Total voters
    34
  • Poll closed .

Scorpio

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#41
Got to be honest with ya,

If you are starting out, and have excess fiat, this is as good a place as any,
No one calls tops or bottoms, yet they will claim otherwise of course.
So you don't try to put all of x into it all at once thereby pretending to catch the bottom, when tomorrow that may not be.
Better to just have a plan and continue to do what you have to do.

There is nothing like it, as it has many different uses than the greater fools game,
 

FunnyMoney

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#42
Gold has taken intraday dips slightly below 1050 on 3 occasions:
  1. The final weekend in Nov. when this thread started.
  2. 3 days later.
  3. On Dec. 17th

Gold has risen to short term highs, in the 1080 area, 3 times since this thread started, the most recent time yesterday (since yesterday we've seen only a slight pullback):
  1. Dec. 7th
  2. Dec. 21st
  3. Jan 4th

Technically, the conditions are set up very well:
- The low between the last 2 highs did not make it into the 1050 or below area and stalled out just barely under 1060.
- Each bounce up off the 1050 area has been volatile and strong.
- AM/PM closes in Dec/Jan have so far been closer on average to 1080 than to 1050.
- Looking at the Yuan gold chart (gold in many other currencies also) shows the recent patterns as a series of higher lows and higher highs, this due to a strengthening USD against most other currencies recently.

The short term chart of gold looks firm and so does the 1050 area, despite dollar strength continuing for the USD.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#43
As I expected (and posted many times), gold got to the 1110 area and has begun the expected pull back. In those posts I mentioned also a subsequent pull back, which I expected to go no lower than 1073. These next few weeks should resolve this part of my prediction.

I do not believe they are able to manipulate gold as much as they used to anymore, and are in a less overt management role of it, this because of the physical demand and the new Asian exchanges ramping up as we speak. The stock market could throw off my predictions as I did not expect a global stock market melt down prior to the elections but things are much worse here much earlier in the year than I had expected.
 
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the_shootist

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#44
As I expected (and posted many times), gold got to the 1110 area and has begun the expected pull back. In those posts I mentioned also a subsequent pull back, which I expected to go no lower than 1073. These next few weeks should resolve this part of my prediction.

I do not believe they are able to manipulate gold as much as they used to anymore, and are in a less overt management role of it, this because of the physical demand and the new Asian exchanges ramping up as we speak. The stock market could throw off my predictions as I did not expect a global stock market melt down prior to the elections but things are much worse here much earlier in the year than I had expected.

Note: There are 5 typos I see in the above post from last week, when I used three digit numbers (ie: 160) I somehow was typing too fast and left out the additional zeros (ie: 160 should really be 1060, 180 should really be 1080...).
Here's my very uneducated take on it. If TPTB ever lose control of the stock market and a severe correction takes place there will be lots of money going into gold and silver as a shelter. Now that's a very rudimentary 'prediction' as most people would agree that's a highly likely scenario however; some here may have a different opinion and I would appreciate if you would share it as a learning opportunity for us novices.
 

FunnyMoney

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#45
When the market melt down of 2008 arrived, gold and silver also went down. On the silver paper contracts, the price went as low as about 10. Although physical silver buys at anywhere under 13 were considered good. The price of silver spot had already seen 20 so this was quite a melt down for silver, along with the stock market. But gold had already overcome a blow off top in 2006 and retraced only to a price firmly above that 2006 top. This was significant as gold moved from under 300 to a distant 500 with little or no attention and then still proceeded to go right to the 2006 top of 720 and it was a clear blow off top. It took only about 18 months though and gold ran back all the way toward 4 digits. 720 was lost to the past.

Gold's other blow off top in 2006 was not as bad as the one we just recently saw in 2011, but one that likely shouldn't have occurred either. I'm of the belief that the market in metals is at times manipulated on the upside as well. The recovery of gold and silver started prior to the 2008 market melt down and the market melt down was simply a hiccup along the way on gold's run to the extreme 2011 blow off tops. The other blow off, at 720, led to gold bouncing against 1000 three times (two of those prior to the 2008 market collapse) and then finally India's largest global purchase ever at what was then 1050 in USD but significantly higher than where we are today in the Rupee.

Following the correction from that other blow of top, in 2006, the lowest we would get back to was still into the 560-580 range (if you want to look at an interesting chart, it would be the 2006 chart). Gold remained within only about 20% pullbacks during the bull market 2001 to 2011 but has already seen a 44% correction since the 2011 blow off top. Since 2011, it has been a stunning correction with both foreign currency and commodity swings joining in on the fun. TPTB made a killing. 1050 has been like a reverse magnet since 2013, nearly 3 years ago. Looking at the 2001 liftoff chart there is a double bottom with lows at about 2 months apart.

My expectation is gold remains in the 1080-1110 range for a couple of weeks more. From there, it will depend on many factors. Do we see a final test of 1050? If we do and if that price can hold then a strong move from there would indicate technical strength. Or do currency market spreads keep us above 1073? If so, this would establish an increasing stair step pattern. I'm not waiting at these prices, the risk of a 50 percent increase to the upside seems much greater to me than a 20% drop from here. It is not totally clear sailing yet, 1050 is still visible in the sand only a short distance away, but all blow off tops deserve a recovery thread. Don't bother looking for the one from 2006, you won't find it.
 

the_shootist

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#47
When the market melt down of 2008 arrived, gold and silver also went down. On the silver paper contracts, the price went as low as about 10. Although physical silver buys at anywhere under 13 were considered good. The price of silver spot had already seen 20 so this was quite a melt down for silver, along with the stock market. But gold had already overcome a blow off top in 2006 and retraced only to a price firmly above that 2006 top. This was significant as gold moved from under 300 to a distant 500 with little or no attention and then still proceeded to go right to the 2006 top of 720 and it was a clear blow off top. It took only about 18 months though and gold ran back all the way toward 4 digits. 720 was lost to the past.

Gold's other blow off top in 2006 was not as bad as the one we just recently saw in 2011, but one that likely shouldn't have occurred either. I'm of the belief that the market in metals is at times manipulated on the upside as well. The recovery of gold and silver started prior to the 2008 market melt down and the market melt down was simply a hiccup along the way on gold's run to the extreme 2011 blow off tops. The other blow off, at 720, led to gold bouncing against 1000 three times (two of those prior to the 2008 market collapse) and then finally India's largest global purchase ever at what was then 1050 in USD but significantly higher than where we are today in the Rupee.

Following the correction from that other blow of top, in 2006, the lowest we would get back to was still into the 560-580 range (if you want to look at an interesting chart, it would be the 2006 chart). Gold remained within only about 20% pullbacks during the bull market 2001 to 2011 but has already seen a 44% correction since the 2011 blow off top. Since 2011, it has been a stunning correction with both foreign currency and commodity swings joining in on the fun. TPTB made a killing. 1050 has been like a reverse magnet since 2013, nearly 3 years ago. Looking at the 2001 liftoff chart there is a double bottom with lows at about 2 months apart.

My expectation is gold remains in the 1080-1110 range for a couple of weeks more. From there, it will depend on many factors. Do we see a final test of 1050? If we do and if that price can hold then a strong move from there would indicate technical strength. Or do currency market spreads keep us above 1073? If so, this would establish an increasing stair step pattern. I'm not waiting at these prices, the risk of a 50 percent increase to the upside seems much greater to me than a 20% drop from here. It is not totally clear sailing yet, 1050 is still visible in the sand only a short distance away, but all blow off tops deserve a recovery thread. Don't bother looking for the one from 2006, you won't find it.
You're nailing it so far!!!!
 

nickndfl

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#48
The $1020-50 level looks like it bottomed out. Now we could be on the way to $1500 quickly.
 

CrimsonGuardJay

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#49
The $1020-50 level looks like it bottomed out. Now we could be on the way to $1500 quickly.
I'm a bit younger than most, only in this since 2013, but I've seen it go from 1180-1400+ and right back down several times.

Who knows.
 

FunnyMoney

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#50
I never saw 1020, I did see a spike down to around 1045 for a few hours on those 2 days that started this thread going (see posts #1 and #4 on page one). In terms of what's happened since, things have played out stronger than I expected. I did not expect a blow through past 1150 to occur prior to mid Feb. but it has come early. The dollar has experienced some sudden weakness of late which has been a big factor in gold and silver's strength.

Once again, allow me to reiterate, if you are waiting for sub-1000 prices for gold, my humble opinion is you will not see prices below 1050 and a retest of 1050 or even 1080 may no longer be in the cards now. This thread may have called the bottom for this cycle, only time will tell.
 

Aurumag

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#51
Is it too late to vote?

Maybe next time you can have your sub-$1000 FRN Au, but today it is back over $1200 and Ag is closing in on $16.

I bought Au at $200 and Ag at $5, but I also bought Au at $1600 and Ag at $25.
 

FunnyMoney

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#52
Fundamentals don't apply... until they do.

Watch out, the truth can be vengeful. The London market opened to bad news in Asia and a falling oil price. Having absorbed about a month of turmoil in the paper markets and relentless demand for safe haven assets, the London exchange was finally ready to throw in the towel. "Enough is enough and it's time to go the other way" was the attitude as day broke over the New York exchanges with the price of gold already up by over $30 dollars in London trading, that on top of a $15 dollar move up overnight in the Asian markets. Momentum traders recognizing a run, piled in and gold proceeded to move another $20 dollars to the upside prior to noon in New York, but gave back most of that final push to rest at 1250 by the close. And it's not even Friday yet.

The price of gold is up by over $60 dollars in a 24 hour period and is now up over $200 from the lows triggered when this thread was created, declaring the multi-year bear cycle complete at the long ago well known 4-digit price of $1050. The pressure to store wealth in a tangible, unencumbered monetary safe haven has been revived. More than 4 years have been needed to restore sanity to the gold and silver markets which were last pushed to cycle highs when the raw commodity market topped out in 2011. Gold priced in US dollars did not see a bottom until late 2015 but gold priced in most other currencies began to recover nearly a year earlier and based in Indian Rupees, gold saw it lowest price way back in 2013. It seems some areas of the world recover their sanity prior to others.

Silver, being manipulated beyond all possible imagination, was pushed way farther along the trail of fears when it briefly ran to $50 dollars per ounce during the commodity top out in 2011. Then, as is the case with insanity, silver was pushed back down a trail of tears, teasing investors at $27 over the course of many months, even years... and then crushing them all the way to $13 per ounce. Manipulation is a bitch, as also some prominent mining companies found out in London recently, when their monthly raw silver production was sold at a spot price which was quickly set, seemingly arbitrarily, a dollar below where it really should have been. Even though, "where it should have been" would be really closer to $18 or $20 - as any buyer actually wanting to buy a brand name silver coin will tell you.

Those mining companies weren't very happy given all the turmoil in paper assets recently. When they were told that they had sold silver in the $13's, all of it into rapidly growing strength circling around $14.70, an "unloved" feeling emerged. Following that falling out, the London exchange soon discovered that manipulation of an asset actually works even better for those with actual control over some of the asset, when those miners, having some real control over real silver, asserted some of that control and floated the idea of withholding some future deliveries. Well, it seems waiting a few hours can make a difference as that was all that was needed, Asia was already more than ripe for a stampede. Lines quickly formed and continued to grow at physical silver and gold shops - sellers were not among those in line.

Asian and Western traders and investors both have lost track of what constitutes gambling and what constitutes investing. Fundamentals don't count anymore they tell us. Gold is pulling back slightly right now as the Asian markets go into their morning openings, following this most recent run. Just because traders and investors have forgotten a few things doesn't mean those things don't exist. Yesterday's move, by tomorrow might seem like it never happened. The media in the West didn't even notice it anyway.

Smart investors however, have been keeping track. Gold and silver investors have, throughout all of history, tended to remind people of those things forgotten. Protected from the destruction of paper money and paper promises and waiting for wealth to move into it's only historically safe, natural form, gold and silver will soon show investors and traders that denial doesn't linger on forever and ignoring something doesn't always make it go away. Let's see now: zillions and zillions of paper dollars and even more than that in paper promises or the weight and shine of gold and the high pitch ping of silver? Fundamentally speaking, some may be making a big mistake.

Fundamentals don't matter, that is until they do.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#53
We are firmly back at the $300 Yuan level in gold grams for delivery.

Strong buying over the Chinese New Year, says ChinaDaily (see link for article), sent prices to a high of $320 per gram in the Chinese currency.

Maybe after a week of heavy shopping most of the buyers are taking a break, gold coin ounces are down over $50 USD from those highs now. Basically, we saw 4% up and then back down possibly as a reaction from the New Year's buying spree. I don't think the whole event can be attributed to just the London market. Also, you should be aware that one of the big Chinese banks now has a seat at the London fix.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#54
Metals do not trade according to fundamentals, so there is no real theoretic limit...

.... Everything in between is bullshit.
So yea, right, I'll get back to you about that. But one thing though, about the rant, you know the one where the MSM tells you what to do and you do it. Cast your vote according to their plan, follow their instructions, forget fundamentals. Anyway, I figured I would move over here, nobody is worried about the next in line to run our nation. It was just another globalist thread anyway. They believe that the 40% Barrier isn't an issue. 5000 posts and a lot of globalist threads lost to the forums of long since days ago. There were several. No big deal.

So the metals don't trade according to fundamentals you say, and there's no real limit? Does that mean I can go into a long rant about it? I'll save you the boredom, they don't matter until they do.

Things look incremental here, I don't expect a big move either way, although we saw a pretty descent spike down in preparation for the Fed speak and then about the exact same retrace after the Fed speak. What can you do? Not that hard actually, accumulate real money, buy even more on the dips and sit back and wait. Metals don't ever go completely out of style. Well, except for that time between 1980 and the year 2000. I think everyone paying attention has woken up since then. Or maybe not, there was that time just recently, 4 years or so was it? Does that mean the gold trade is over? No way, have you seen how they continue to print money, don't trust paper money over gold. Dollar has gone weak now. But things move back and forth and it is going to be a long slow trek. I don't expect another 100 point move right away. But down the road, in just another few years, they could become even frequent events. At some point, fundamentals will matter. They mattered a lot actually just recently, at 1050.
 

FunnyMoney

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#55
So I'm trying to end this rant and call a move for gold for the next few months. The gold market is extremely tough, there is no market like it. I usually only post moves when I'm certain. 1050 is the only one here, but there were at least 2 dozen at GIM1 and all the other forums before that where I was banned for defending TPTP against the Jews, and the blacks (and others, immigrants, reds, yellows, whoever...), or do I have that backwards? Banned way more than once. Anyway, calling S&P 666 about 3 months prior to the event was actually easier than when I called the bottom in gold and commodity stocks in Nov 2008 right at the bottom. Actually it was a double bottom on the 3rd option expirations both Oct and Nov.

This 1050 call was more difficult than both of those and I must say it was on par with the double call I made in Oil. Predicting the top of oil at 147, I actually said it would go between 145 and 150 and that was when it first hit 100 was about the same difficulty as this one. Where did all those predictions go? Scorpio has said above that nobody calls tops and bottoms. I think what he means is that nobody does with 100% accuracy but my take is if you can stay above 90% then you've won. What I really want to know is if he knows where all those prediction threads of mine between 2006 and the early part of 2010 (I think that's when it was) went to? Nobody has any clue at all I'm sure. Same thing with my threads at Kitco. They were all deleted. There were other forums as well. Yes, again, all deleted. There were near 2 dozen prediction threads lost in total I figure. There's been some very difficult calls and some easy ones, I'm happy with my 90% despite the naysayers. I actually still believe GIM1 was shut down because of the prediction abilities going on over there more so than the rapidly expanding freedom viewpoints. Although both things were snowballing and either could have easily caught the attention of TPTB.

So the move in gold... not totally certain right now... I'm really thinking it's going to be 9 months or so of a trading range. That is actually my best guess right now. Not 1400 as I was "hoping" for and not back to 1100 area either. A lot depends on the currency movements. I've been watching gold priced in RMB and the Indian currency for the last 7 years. I don't like to rely exclusively on technical analysis in USD when it comes to gold.

At GIM1 and before that at Kitco I would post the battle line areas for trading purposes. Here, where we are today, it really looks like 1250 is what will be crossed over the most. But when entering a trading range there's often a shift down that unfolds. When gold ran to 720 and then pulled back hard, it finally established a range where anything under 620 was a good buy and anything over 640 you could sell. That lasted for over a year if I remember correctly. The launch off of that area eventually took us to 1000 for the first time and was predicted by the forum at the moment it first started, it was an easy prediction for the forum because there was a lot of strength early in the move, most of the members posted rockets and few members believe it was a false breakout. The move was just as strong as what we have seen here getting to 1250. I was at Kitco at that time still.

Let's see what happens, a shifted down trading range when gold is priced in USD could easily take place along with a slightly increasing range on the RMB chart. We need another month or so to know for sure about this trading range, but a trading range is actually a good thing right now, we should be able to detect who is buying and what fundamental factors the market is most concerned about. Those should provide clues for upcoming moves. Long term it could easily be a 7 to 10 year run and trading in and out is actually a good strategy with select funds because as Scorpio said, calling the top and selling everything when you get there is not something you can rely on. Making money along the way, if you are able to, can provide extra gold. Never be completely out of real money though, if you do trade, I believe that would be a mistake.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#56
When you trade the gold market, what you are actually doing is trading against all other assets. You are taking real money and if you take some off the table at cycle highs then you have gone into the real risk market (less gold and something else instead). Then as those risk assets like fiat currency or whatever experience strength against gold for a period you prepare to get back in a buy gold (or essentially, sell those risk assets and go back to gold). You can think of it this way and still base most decisions off the price of gold itself. The gold price will tell you when to get back in along with the climate of the markets, all markets because gold is real money and thus all markets, fundamentally, are priced against gold.

You have turned yourself into a trader in truth, you think of the markets in terms of gold grams or gold ounces, all markets in terms of real money. They said gold was a risk asset, but you know the truth about risk, you never believed them regarding anything else they said and you don't believe them about gold. Gold, the metal, they call it a "risk" asset and still most believe them. Of course somebody on this forum might say its the military or the gun that matters fundamentally, gold is really like all the other things. But I would say that if it fundamentally comes to that day, then we're really doomed anyway. Gold has been real money for 5000 years. Their tricks since 1913 are just a blip in that history, don't fall for their tricks.

Before this wall of worry and then finally a mania cycle is over we are going to see gold go to very big numbers. A blow off top bigger than what we saw in the years of Carter 1980 is in the works and it's going to be at prices which will surprise over 99% of investors. The longer this goes on this way the higher gold is going to eventually go. If they can actually double all the debts one more time then gold 5 figures is a no brainer call. I said 4 digits was a no brainer well under 400 gold and it was hard to get a single viewer to reply. Here it is like crickets also, this is actually a really good sign.

I posted a prediction thread for the end of 2016 and most all the posts came in very low, another really good sign. The believers have lost hope or they've lost interest and are sitting on their preps. Wake up call 2017, we need a 'countdown' thread.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#57
Crickets still? I'll take that to be because of a very trading-adverse forum we have or a sign of being very early in this new cycle still. Or a little of both.

Scorpio has his own thread, but I'm going , well let's check in ....

I hear ya andial, just would like to see it resume its position of 'poor mans gold', rather than being treated like the town Ho
We are very early in the cycle for silver and the global economy is in the tank. Market perception is that gold is a safe haven and silver is tarnished.

They ran silver to 50 and this created huge technical damage. Manipulation and perception are 2 factors which must not be ignored. The huge damage done to silver is going to take a while to repair itself.

I have only known 2 traders in my entire life who were able to successfully trade silver, although there are a few claims to fame in alternative media circles, I have not double checked their records. I see silver as a very long term hold (physical form only). It will finally move back to 20 this year or next is my thinking. What to do with it then, I'll try to figure out then - not exactly the best way to plan - that's why I only trade in gold and keep silver as a LT safety net investment.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#58
Guess it's time to provide my LT, MT and ST outlooks... Here we go...

Investments (70-90 percent of net worth):
LT -
Physical gold .
Physical silver.
Select dividend paying stocks with the paper certificates in your possession, not a large part of your portfolio unless you are very young.
Real Estate - RE can be an investment and/or a business, it can work out quite well mostly because it can be a debt leveraged investment and in terms of debt, well , the way they print paper money and with interest rates at Biblical lows, what's not to like? Understand all the aspects about RE before you play, buy a book, ask your parents, or something. You should understand all the topics: cash flow, rental concerns, 'location', loan types, maintenance, and many more...
Other things... DYODD

Trading (0 to 20 percent of net worth):
LT - Long gold, long very select mining and commodity stocks. I just got into the stock plays when this thread started, and increased gold positions at 1050. Time frame is to sell at the final blow off top.
MT - Oil range bound between 30 and 40 (risk here should be examined daily, if selling calls have out-of-money protection calls in place). I believe we saw the lows in oil already, I don't believe we breach 27 again. If selling puts then be prepared to buy, I'm not protecting those on the downside - Oil can't go to zero and we've seen the lows IMO.
ST - Gold in a trading range, buy below 1240 , sell above 1260 ( a good trader doesn't do this on auto pilot, every move up and every move down are unique, those numbers are simply general guides - a successful trader must maximize potential and minimize risk in every trade!


Emergency Fund (typically about 10% of the average upper middle class worker's net worth):
On your own, I have half in Gold and half in USD (yuck) and a small amount in some foreign currencies (yuck again).

These are my only allocations and I could write an entire book on each area but won't - read at least 100 economics and investing books prior to plunging in. If you are young , then you are likely to become very rich within the next 10 years, it will help if this thread and this forum survive (that would be a first, for me at least) but work on your education and your career and your hobbies at least as much as you work on managing your money. Education and careers have great LT potential and unless you go into debt have very low or near zero risk. Trading can cut both ways, a paycheck never costs you more than your time.

Nobody will manage your money better than you do. I will list the top ten general mantras in a later post, stay tuned. And always DYODD.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#59
I'm not expecting a "black swan" event until we know who is actually running for POTUS in the general. Risks of a major crisis increase the closer we get to the election and in early 2017.
 

FunnyMoney

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#60
Stock market thoughts:

We are heading back toward all time highs. I like to follow Bill Fleckenstein, he is very rational and understands history very well. He believes we are due for a huge crash to come. But we have played around toward these highs for about a year already, usually the market doesn't give you so many chances to sell near the top which would mean we're likely to continue to go higher (Martin Armstrong believe this too). A lot of stocks have separated from the main indexes which is a major concern (Louise Yamada has extensive work on this and believes we're back to a bear market now). Technical analysts are often behind the curve and often switching their calls after the fact. I ignore nobody but take everything with at least 2 grains of salt, or more.

Many have said that we were in a buy the dips mode for years, but that has now switched to sell the highs. I tend to agree with that, but money printing can paper over markets more than you would believe. They say the Fed is not in control and if there's a serious sell off, they'll probably let it play out, but until then, they are actually in control.
 

FunnyMoney

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#61
Back to trading. It's not for the faint of heart. Statistics reveal that two-thirds of all investors (not traders, but just investors looking to have savings for retirement), 2/3 of them do NOT keep up with inflation. So after taxes those two-thirds are losing money. This is the nature of our corrupt unfair financial and economic systems. Things are very difficult for savers.

But for those who believe trading will then protect them from the above, be aware of another stat: 7 out of 9 professional traders (we are talking about those people who studied it and want to do it for a living), these so-called pros, 7 out of 9 have to switch careers because they can't succeed at it. Most of them end up making money working for somebody else doing research or they become online analysts. The 2 that make it are rare finds and spend a lot of time on vacation. For more reasons than just one.
 
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CrimsonGuardJay

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#62
Back to trading. It's not for the faint of heart. Statistics reveal that two-thirds of all investors (not traders, but just investors looking to have savings for retirement), 2/3 of them do NOT keep up with inflation. So after taxes those two-thirds are losing money. This is the nature of our corrupt unfair financial and economic systems. Things are very difficult for savers.

But for those who believe trading will then protect them from the above, be aware of another stat: 7 out of 9 professional traders (we are talking about those people who studied it and want to do it for a living), these so-called pros, 7 out of 9 have to switch careers because they can't succeed at it. Most of them end up making money working for somebody else doing research or they become online analysts. The 2 that make it are rare finds and spend a lot of time on vacation.
On that subject, I wanted to become a day trader this year. All the gurus who do it will do is basically wrote newsletters about their life which is a constant vacation and sell you a program that will get you as good as they are.
 

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#63
On that subject, I wanted to become a day trader this year. All the gurus who do it will do is basically wrote newsletters about their life which is a constant vacation and sell you a program that will get you as good as they are.
The programs never get you as good as they are unless they're not very good, which is why they went into the business of news letter selling anyway.

Some of the best traders will finally write a book, but none of them need to sell news letters. Sometimes, as they age, they will "sell out to the system" so to speak, usually doing it to bring in wealth for extended families. Most of the best never do that, we're too much into ourselves (we understand that time is money and would rather just have more free time) and we believe everyone has to make it on their own otherwise it won't mean anything and might even be detrimental to their health. Kind of like those lottery winners that end up losing it all or sent to jail. Not that this is always real, but that is a huge perception among a lot of people that have to work hard for a living and trading is working hard for a living. Seriously hard work!

Oh and good luck on your journey, have you read books (mentioned somewhere in a post above), how long have you been dabbling with "skin in the game?" - I'll post my top ten soon, but skin in the game is one of those as you need it while you're learning to be able to control your emotions.

That can take a long time, it's usually measured in years. I went the really slow road and had a high level full time career also (which took obviously most of my time, but also gave me my seed money) I played in the markets from the age of 20 to about 35 and lost more money than I made during those years, slowly incrementing my "skin in the game" amounts and reading everything everywhere. I did not reach full confidence in my abilities and did not start making any serious money until about 40 (oh the days...). While it is easier now, I would still rather be 40 again, obviously not because of the trading. LOL
 
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FunnyMoney

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#64
A lot of traders work really hard and still only just get by. This is another reason for the newsletter services, for their supplemental income. Some though are actually worth paying attention to. If someone is that 2 out of 9 that actually can succeed (pointed out already in a post above), even by just enough to earn a living, then that is considered pretty good. I don't blatantly follow the advice of any of these but I read what they're preaching constantly, for about 30 that I follow. I might use things they say to help me but I try to design my own trades.

Silver seems like a screaming LT buy here. Of course it was better when it was just under 14. It never made it to my 13.13 prediction and I'm still worried that it will. I was unable to call the top at 50. With new money, I still allocate to silver and my strategy with gold and silver in my Investments portion is to dollar cost average in but pull forward purchases on drastic dips. This prevents me from buying near cycle highs. If there's a big drop in the price I will buy a little, if a secondary drop comes then I will buy more, and then if a final severe spike down arrives closely following the others then I will pull forward up to 2 years worth of expected purchases and buy at that low. Before the big run, I had pulled forward on the dips in the teens and did not buy into the run. This kept my cost basis on silver far under where we are today at 16. I am not a momentum trader by nature but what is called an opportunity trader. I know how to trade all the methods and will pick what I see works. Momentum trading is a very important and one of the most lucrative strategies but it also comes with seriously high risk. The momentum traders that jumped in when we finally cleared 22 and were able to ride that to 50 and sell near the top were absolutely amazing. David Morgan was one of those and is someone I pay attention to, among others, for ongoing precious metals analysis.
 
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CrimsonGuardJay

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#65
A lot of traders work really hard and still only just get by. This is another reason for the newsletter services, for their supplemental income. Some though are actually worth paying attention to. If someone is that 2 out of 9 that actually can succeed (pointed out already in a post above), even by just enough to earn a living, then that is considered pretty good. I don't blatantly follow the advice of any of these but I read what they're preaching constantly, for about 30 that I follow. I might use things they say to help me but I try to design my own trades.

Silver seems like a screaming LT buy here. Of course it was better when it was just under 14. It never made it to my 13.13 prediction and I'm still worried that it will. I was unable to call the top at 50 and I didn't start unwinding positions until after about 5 up and down moves in the thirties and forties. I got back in too early at 27 and lost money in my trading account because of it and pulled out when we broke support. After that I dropped it from my trading plans and left it only in my Investments section. With new money, I still allocate to silver and my strategy with gold and silver in my Investments portion is to dollar cost average in but pull forward purchases on drastic dips. This prevents me from buying near cycle highs. If there's a big drop in the price I will buy a little, if a secondary drop comes then I will buy more, and then if a final severe spike down arrives closely following the others then I will pull forward up to 2 years worth of expected purchases and buy at that low. Before the big run, I had pulled forward on the dips in the teens and did not buy into the run. This kept my cost basis on silver under where we are today at 16. I have not traded the silver market since those sell orders about 3 years ago. I am not a momentum trader by nature but what is called an opportunity trader. I know how to trade all the methods and will pick what I see works. Momentum trading is a very important and one of the most lucrative strategies but it also comes with seriously high risk. The momentum traders that jumped in when we finally cleared 22 and were able to ride that to 50 and sell near the top were absolutely amazing. David Morgan was one of those and is someone I pay attention to, among others, for ongoing precious metals analysis.

As far as skin in the game (yes, I know that one despite being only 33) I would say I jumped in around 2010 and bought a lot of my own stocks, and they've done "ok," then I have a larger amount that I've bought some and received some from older relatives like my mom and grandma, these are all dividend-paying blue-chips, and those have done better.

There's no way I'd get involved in day trading. I earn excellent passive income in my profession and if I did get involved, I'm fairly certain I'd lose badly given the stats. I'd be best to just sit behind a desk with my cell phone.
 

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#66
Most do lose, but everyone should try to manage their own money if they can. this is another one that will be in my upcoming top ten list. Investments are actually the same as trading but with longer time frames and much less risk. Like anything, if you put in the hours and keep working hard at it you will get better and better as time goes on. Day trading has moved into the realm of computers, very few traders now specialize in just day trading without the use of expensive systems. I don't know anyone who just does day trading for a living. We had a member at GIM1 who did though, they lived in NYC and posted frequently, I did not know them personally and only believe them from all their posts which were actually making money. The member had a core group of other members that constantly followed him on his threads. I actually talked to the guy once on the phone in 2008 when things were blowing up. He only traded 3 or 4 stocks at any time and he was always completely out of the market before the close of the day. He didn't want to be invested when the market was closed because of what might happen in overnight global activity. This is why a trade designed to go for a period of days has to actively manage risk. For example, you don't want to be short oil and unprotected because overnight WWIII might start up overseas and cause oil to double in a heartbeat.
 

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#67
I have three predictions that I have 100% confidence will be totally accurate.

1. We'll know more about where the price of gold will be tomorrow than we know today.
2. We'll know more about where the price of gold is tomorrow than we'll know the day after.
3. None of what we know today is guaranteed to remain the same tomorrow

Watch out for my new book being released that details all my can't miss predictions on metal prices


(We know return you to your regularly scheduled program)
 

REO 54

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#69
Hope 1050 comes back this summer......
 

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#70
...
Watch out for my new book being released that details all my can't miss predictions on metal prices...
I'd love to read it. But for right now, let's see if we can provide some tangible resources that don't require a weekend read or a thousand dollar seminar...

Maybe some were actually inclined to plunk down a thousand or nine thousand or 35,000 dollars to learn how to become "rich" although I doubt there's too many of those here. But just in case, if you were tempted, allow me to give you a bit of advice: Read the following post, and ask your "Real Estate" and other investment related questions in a thread or somewhere on an Internet "freedom forum" you like to follow. You might find a lot better information and save yourself a lot of money in the process. Just my humble opinion. Don't blame the messenger for the message. DYODD...
 

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#71
My "Top Ten Mantras for Investing/Trading" is something I had been meaning to write down for a long time. All the following items can be found in almost any good investment or trading book. Please chime in with opposite or agreement opinions....
 
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FunnyMoney

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#72
1. Buy low, sell high.

4 words and 4 things from it...
Keep it simple, don't get confused by the noise, weigh each factor correctly and always treat the importance of price as your number 1 factor! (more about this on post #81).


2. Manage Risk.
Only 2 this time, but they're actually each part of 1...
If your not in the game you will never hit the home run. If you keep playing you will eventually.
Don't become insolvent even ever so slowly and don't get slaughtered all of a sudden, as the famous quotes go:
The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent (more on post#79).
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. (more on post #80).


3. Perception is stronger than reality. -

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, again. But another: Everything finally reverts to the mean. More on these 2 post down.


4.

Nobody manages your money better than you can. -

Let's start with an example: your investment account is really just another trading account, but one with longer terms usually and much less risk always. If you have XYZ stock in your investment account and after watching it for years, it finally gets to big highs then you have to ask yourself is it really going to go to even bigger highs if I keep it another year or 2? What about ten years? Maybe I won't even live another ten years, maybe now is the time to take a profit and find something at even cheaper valuations. All the hard work, you have to do it again and again, and again. Often when you do you find there's better low risk and high potential investments than what was your favorite long term hold for so long. Again, planning is involved (more on that below) as well as lots and lots of hard work. You have to manage the details, an outsider will never know you as well as you do and will never be as concerned about you as you are. If you rely on someone else to handle your money don't be surprised when they don't do the job you expected.


5. Technical analysis and number theories are self-fulfilling prophecies. -

My belief is cycle theory creates a reality all by itself. Since most traders and investors utilize the technicals in their analysis, whatever the perceived technicals are will become a factor involved in price movement. Be aware that when things go differently than what general consensus believed should occur based on technical analysis, it may simply be because the wrong set of technicals were being used and there's others that do point out what is actually taking place. Or it could be because other factors, like the fundamentals or market emotions are simply too strong and have overcome the technical consensus. In addition, today's marketplace is a global one, anything traded globally should be examined in local currency charts for all the currencies that could be impacting a particular asset you want to trade. Make sure to find out how others "see" the asset and what tools they use during their trades and investments in that asset.


6. Perception does drive the market but Fundamentals do matter.

When the fundamentals do matter, they *really* do! Perception is both a factor and something that the market essentially runs on. Only manipulation can battle perception because the mania of the market real is in control. There are too many strong inputs in most liquid markets and these create what is called market perception. The technical charts are a self fulfilling factor, I include them inside factors in general. I mentioned price to be the most important and in a tie for second position I place technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Within fundamental analysis other factors break down from there. With technical analysis one spread out thin and uses timeframes and different charting techniques and secondary indicator graphs.. One thing I like to remember with the technical is that when a fundamental style factor overrides a technical factor a lot of the more regularly used technical charts won't spot this.


7. Don't gamble, have a plan.

I create a written plan prior to every trade. Obviously there's not enough time to do that for day trading, but with most trading strategies there's time to plan out the most likely scenarios and to include the most important points you may need to look at during the trade or ongoing during the investment. The plan needs to be reviewed often and sometimes even adjusted. But be careful when adjusting and make certain that you're not changing things based on recent market noise or your own unfounded market emotions. I could go on for pages about what makes a good plan and all the strategies which should or should not be used in this type of trade or that type of investment, but suffice to say planning is critical. Most trades that don't live up to expectations or create excessive damage have poor planning as the reason.


8. Follow the money. -

I believe there's one more factor to investing and trading beyond the technical and fundamental type analysis which is big money. Big money will push the market around and in today's totally corrupt, absolutely unfair markets, manipulation itself is the biggest factor. Incorporate ideas about what the media, the courts, big money, owners, banks, central banks and even gov'ts might do (and are currently doing) into your investing and trading plans. I was going to title this "Follow the money and other big influences" but litigation and exceedingly bad (or good) news coming out of left field is just another "big money" influence, although they are less frequent and many assets are somewhat insulated from them. Manipulation (legal, ethical or not) are rouge but constantly involved elements, the ability to plan for, mitigate and even utilize big money influences is every bit as important as is using the technical charts and latest fundamentals.


9. When in doubt, drop out. -

Another trading day will always come, wait for the 100% certainty threshold, if you're wrong then make it the most surprising thing you've had happen to you in decades. You need to be 100% certain in your own mind and every possible factor you see as significant needs to be pointing with you for you to be able to stick to your plan and most importantly, to give you the best chance of winning in a market that makes losers out of the vast majority of participants. If you're not entirely certain, then move along, there must be a better trade somewhere else.


10. Trading and Investing is work. -

Read and study as much as you can and before taking a position in an asset make sure you really understand that asset from many different, hopefully *all* angles. Obviously, nobody can read everything, there's simply not enough time. But try and select resources which don't follow in line with your own opinions at least as much as you do the others, the unbiased and the like-minded resources. Ignore nobody but take everything with a grain of salt. I like to follow the naysayers and the established media outlets simply because I know other market participants are following them and understanding what others may do can be very important in determining a good trading strategy. Give every newbie and every *stupid* opinion an extensive amount of thought, while first impressions and emotions are rarely correct, they do impact the market. I mentioned above (twice) to "keep it simple" but that doesn't apply to how much work you'll need to do to become a continuously successful investor/trader.



There are more mantras that traders must know, but in general terms, I believe they would all fit into one of the above buckets. While there is also some crossover in the above buckets, this breakdown has really served me well to keep focused.

For those new to the investing and trading world, you should develop a training plan. This includes real time investing/trading with small, but incrementally increasing, funds. "Skin in the game" is required so you can learn how to control your emotions. Learning how to control one's own emotions is important in life, it is critical for investors/traders. A "training plan" is something that is usually measured in years, not months.
 
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the_shootist

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#73
I'd love to read it. But for right now, let's see if we can provide some tangible resources that don't require a weekend read or a thousand dollar seminar...

Maybe some were actually inclined to plunk down a thousand or nine thousand or 35,000 dollars to learn how to become "rich" although I doubt there's too many of those here. But just in case, if you were tempted, allow me to give you a bit of advice: Read the following post, and ask your "Real Estate" and other investment related questions in a thread or somewhere on an Internet "freedom forum" you like to follow. You might find a lot better information and save yourself a lot of money in the process. Just my humble opinion. Don't blame the messenger for the message. DYODD...
I was being factious.
 

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#74
Hope 1050 comes back this summer......
posts #52 and 53 above might give you more information related to your summer call.

If you look at gold charts using some other currencies, you'll see that we've seen quite a pullback from the recent highs already.

Still, for hope, here's to hoping you haven't completely pulled out of real money while you wait for this summer. We're down to below 1240 right now in Asian markets. We may see a trading range develop over the ST, don't neglect safety of real money and risk of not having any. I see risk of a 50% move to upside as more likely than chance of a 20% move to the downside. My LT target is 5 figures.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#75
I see there's few takers. Members just sit on their hands as they watch the train leave the station? Crickets?

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Everything finally reverts to the mean."

Reality might come tomorrow or the next day after you retire or worse. Perception is always right here and right now regardless of whether it realistic. But reality and reversion to the mean is reversion toward truth and it does happen. It is a very strong fundamental factor.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#76
It's crickets over here again. I think some of the regular members have me on ignore after my long rants a few months back about the non-whites, the religions and all the scapegoating. Then recently, I know even more of the regulars put me on ignore when I went after Trump and with my support of Cruz, they couldn't take the political mud slinging I guess, LOL ...

...and yes, I stick by my thread about voting for anyone but another family line monarchist. You won't be predicting Queen Hillary is going to win, and if you do I know you won't mean it.


Well then... Not even the 'crickets' think I have any clue now. This is amazing, is this what a new bull market looks like?
 

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#77
I had a little distraction, sorry, it was just something over on a "muslim carpet bombing" thread. I got off of there pretty quick and yes, you guessed it, there were no takers. Of course none in support of my post but none against me either. Must be the ignore factor. Well I did get one reply, Son of G. asked me to clarify some out of context acronym usage. Kind of like a grammar thing, not really related to the topic at all. Totally my fault of course, as it usually is I want to admit. Anyway, that took things down an unrelated path. Unrelated and wrong board posting used to get me banned all the time over at Kitco forum when I used to write over there, in the early days when gold was still $400 and silver was $7. Canadians have this thing about staying on topic.

So yeah, they would ban me for 3 days at a time. That was the sentencing. This would be for not staying on point or mentioning something that was unrelated to the board you were posting to. You had to be real careful. They had different boards for silver and for gold, so if you mentioned gold on the silver board or if you mentioned silver in the gold area - boom! 3 day ban you got, and if you complained about when the 3 days were up they gave you an additional week.

I once tried to explain that they were related but they wanted to hear nothing of it. I think finally they saw light because much later they created a joint board for the two metals. I think they called it the "Gold/Silver Ratio" board. Sometimes the mods would move your posts around. If they thought it was better cached on a different thread they would just move it over there. You'd go looking for you posts and it would be really tough to find them. Sometimes members, when this would happen to them, and if they were newbies, would totally freak out, and of course - boom! 3 day ban. Freaking out wasn't allowed either.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#78
Oh, those 'clueless' threads.
OK, so nobody wants to talk gold what about as a second choice have Trump and Cruz get together to defeat Hillary, nobody's thought of that?

Otherwise it's looking to be Queen Clinton now that King Clinton has retired. Is there one of those action series called "Kings and Queens?" I hope not because if so I'm going to need to watch it.

Whoever it is, if it's Trump, Hillary or Bernie or Cruz, when Feb. 2017 comes around if they start cozying back up to the globalist this nation goes into the #1 worst scenario other than war, ... .or is more war.... whatever it is, war on a tactic.

So still, I did a poll thread over here and all the members but 3 or so said that there's no way a plane fits into that size of a hole and eyewitnesses at the scene said there was no plane wreckage whatsoever.
 
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FunnyMoney

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#79
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

There is a #1 absolute method. Bigger than the top 10 on post #72, more important. Which is "stay in the game" by managing risk. Staying in the game for if necessary years without ever losing more than a small % of income ability assures you of eventually hitting a home run, especially as you improve.
 

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#80
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

keep it simple, don't get confused by the emotion. Emotions, your own and those found in the marketplace, can easily turn a great trade into a losing one. Have a plan worked out in advance for what you plan on doing if this happens and if that happens and so on... While you must constantly check and re-check your plan, don't allow sudden market events to change that plan without really thinking it through.

Emotions cut in all directions, the ability to switch directions, to be flexible with market timing, and to work "averaging down" strategies among many others into your trading plans are important tools. Not every trade or investment strategy needs to incorporate such flexibility and complexity, but the pros and cons of their use should be contemplated. There's more on planning in another of my "Top Ten Mantras" below. But back to the crux of this mantra: Just because the rose is more beautiful than you ever imagined it would be once it blooms, don't allow that to change your mind about when and how it may subsequently wither.