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12 Wettest Months In 125 Years

Alton

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Don't like the news but do like the pic!

The US just witnessed its 12 wettest months in 125 years, and the floods keep coming



Ian Livingston
Washington Post
Mon, 10 Jun 2019 16:30 UTC






© David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP
People gather in downtown Alton, Ill. on Saturday as the Mississippi River there reached a level of 39 feet. The red line under the American flag painted on the grain silos represents the high-water mark of 42.72 feet, recorded in 1993.
Flooding swamped parts of the Southeast over the weekend, with as much as a foot of rain falling in western North Carolina. At the same time, the Mississippi River continued its long-lasting assault on communities along its banks. Near St. Louis, the crest over the weekend was the second-highest on record.

Just the latest high-water news, during what has seemed like a never-ending parade of storms.

During May, a stormy pattern, headlined by widespread flooding in the nation's heartland and a two-week swarm of tornadoes, boosted the nationally averaged precipitation to the second-highest level on record for the month. The 4.41 inches recorded was 1.5 inches above normal, trailing only May 2015′s 4.44 inches, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The substantial May total helped pushed the most recent 12-month output for the Lower 48 states to the highest level in 125 years of record-keeping (since 1895): 37.68 inches. It easily topped the previous record 12-month total of 36.20 inches set just last month.

North Carolina

Over the weekend in North Carolina and parts of the adjacent region, early-season extreme heat and a rapidly developing drought was replaced by intense rainfall. The signals for flooding were seen days in advance, yet the ferocity of the rainfall was still hard to fathom.

Saturday evening, the Weather Prediction Center warned of "high risk" as rainfall coalesced over western North Carolina.

A large area saw totals as high as 10 to 12 inches, with a few spots exceeding that. Peak totals of 13.64 inches near Brookford and 13.57 inches east of Boone were reported by AccuWeather.

Extreme rainfall over a short period led to many waterways overflowing their banks, washing out roads and entering homes or businesses. The worst was focused in the mountains and foothills. Mountain Island Lake, northwest of Charlotte, saw rapid rises, which led to flooded homes. The peak water level there was the second highest on record. Near Lincolnton, also northwest of Charlotte, three people died when a car accident left them submerged in floodwater.


The Mighty Mississippi

Five hundred miles to the northwest, a slower-motion flood reached its latest apex in and around the St. Louis area over the weekend.

In what has become the longest cycle of Mississippi River flooding since 1927, Saturday's crest of 46.02 feet at St. Louis was the second-highest on record for that location, behind only the 49.58 foot mark set during the Great Flood of 1993.

The Weather Service office in St. Louis notes that this is the sixth major crest of the Mississippi at St. Louis since 2013, all top-10 marks at a location where records date to the 1700s.


Although the Mississippi has been subject to more and more flood-control measures, various levee and dam failures and over-toppings have caused water to inundate a number of towns and cities in recent months.

Alton, Ill., to the north of St. Louis, was the latest victim when a flood wall failed last week.

A year of floods

Following a wet 2018, the floods of 2019 burst onto the scene in the central United States in mid-March, when snowmelt and heavy rain inundated parts of Nebraska and Iowa. Since then, flash flooding and river flooding have engulfed large portions of the Plains and Midwest as well as the Corn Belt.

But the deluges have fanned out from this region at times, including to Houston last week, and now the Southeast.

Until the rains arrived this weekend, parts of the Southeast were facing the sudden onset of drought thanks to a persistent dome of sinking air that produced both extreme heat and excessively dry conditions in late May.

Aside from that, the Lower 48 has mostly seen record-low drought coverage this spring, tied to the record 12-month rainfall. The 37.68 inches averaged over the country since last June is a whopping 7.73 inches above average.

The magnitude of the rainfall is probably related to the presence of El Niño, the episodic warming of waters over the tropical Pacific Ocean which tends to increase storminess in the southern United States. Yet this last 12-month rainfall average bests prior records coming out of the strong El Niño winters (1972-73 and 1982-83) by more than two inches.

While it is likely that the weak El Niño is intensifying rainfall over the Lower 48, increases in heavy rain events are also among the most anticipated and well-documented impacts from climate change.

May was characterized by warm extremes in the Southeast and simultaneously cold extremes in the north-central region. Such a contrasting pattern, which may become more common in a warming world, breeds storminess.

In the short term, there's some good news for the flood-weary. A less active pattern is expected for the next week or so in the central United States. After that, a stormy pattern may try to resume by the latter part of June.
 

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Bonus article from 2 weeks ago... only because it's been raining all morning and on into the afternoon....

A Global Food Disaster is in The Making



F. William Engdahl
New Eastern Outlook
Fri, 31 May 2019 00:00 UTC






No, this is not at all an endorsement of the apocalyptic scenarios of AOC or that famous young Swedish climate expert, Greta. It is, however, a look at unusual weather disasters in several key growing regions from the USA to Australia, the Philippines and beyond that could dramatically affect food availability and prices in the coming year. That in turn could have major political implications depending on how the rest of the growing season develops.

USA Midwest Waterlogged

According to the latest May 20 report of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the US Department of Agriculture, corn and soybean crops are well behind the planting growth levels normal this time of the planting season. They report that only 49% of all planned corn acreage in the US has been planted compared with 78% at this time a year ago. Of that only 19% has yet emerged from the ground compared to 47% in May 2018. In terms of soybeans, barely 19% of crops have yet been planted compared with 53% a year before. Rice acreage planted is down to 73% compared to 92% a year ago in the six US rice-growing states. Of course, should weather dramatically improve the final harvest numbers could improve. It is simply too early to predict.

The USA is by a wide margin the world largest soybean producer with 34 percent of the world's soybean production and 42% of world exports prior to the China trade battles. The US is also the world largest corn or maize producer, almost double China, the number two. A serious harvest failure in these two crops could significantly affect world food prices, leaving aside the unfortunate fact that almost all US soybeans and corn are GMO crops. They are mainly used in animal feed.

A major factor in the disruption of the US Midwest growing season is the fact that the past 12 months have seen the greatest precipitation levels since the US Government began keeping statistics in 1895, according to the US NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Record snowfall followed by abnormally heavy rains are the reason.

Noteworthy is the fact that a strong Pacific El Niño was in play during 2015-16 and a new El Niño has been confirmed this past winter, somewhat earlier than normal. Precisely how that affected the current weather is not yet clear. El Niño is the periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

Connected with solar activity, not manmade factors, it can shift global weather patterns over a period of months, bringing the possibility of more warm, cold, wet or dry weather in parts of the world. They occur in cycles every several years, usually every two to seven years, and it is notable that there is a confirmed, if relatively weak El Nino which is expected to reach peak this month of May. The NOAA in April estimated that the current El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere for spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance).

Australia and Philippines Severe Drought

While the Midwest USA farm-belt is waterlogged, other regions of the globe suffer drought, most notably, Australia, a major grain producer. For the first time since 2007 Australia is being forced to import wheat, mainly from Canada. Last year drought caused a 20% crop harvest reduction. The Government has issued a bulk import permit to deal with the situation. Current wheat harvest estimates are for only 16 million metric tons, half of what it was two seasons ago. Australia is in recent years the number five world wheat export nation.

Adding to the shortfall of grains, The Philippines is experiencing a major drought since February 2018, which is devastating the current rice crop. Although the country is not one of the world top rice producers - India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan comprise a total of some 70% all rice export - it has significant political impact on the troubled country.

Another country being hit by severe drought is North Korea. There rainfall so far this year is lowest since 1982. State media reports that a "severe drought has been lingering in all parts" of the country. The average precipitation since January is only 42.3% of the average annual precipitation of 5 inches. This comes as the country experiences significant food shortages. While data is likely politicized, effect of international sanctions do not help.

While these significant shortfalls are still not grounds for declaring global emergency, notably they take place at the same time the Peoples' Republic of China is in the midst of the worst infestation of deadly African Swine Fever across the entire China pig population. USDA estimates that as many as 200 million pigs must be slaughtered this year if the contagion is to be at all contained. China is the world's largest pig producer by far with some 700 million. As if this were not bad enough, the country is being hit by a plague of Fall Armyworms which could devastate crops such as corn or soybeans across China.

This all does not take into account the various warzones around the world from Yemen to Syria to the Congo where agriculture production has been devastated as a casualty of war.

Russia as New Grain Power?

These current crop difficulties or possible major harvest shortfalls could be a major advantage to Russia, the country which, since imposition of US and EU sanctions in 2014, has emerged in the past three years to become the world's largest wheat exporter, far surpassing both Canada and the United States. This current 2019/2020 harvest year, Russia is estimated to export a record 49.4 million tons of wheat, some 10% above a year ago. Last year Russia accounted for 21% of total world wheat exports compared with around 14% for the USA and about the same for Canada.

Western sanctions on Russia have had the interesting effect of forcing the government to take measures to become self-sufficient in food production. The Government banned GMO plantings or imports in 2016, and enjoys some of the most productive black earth soils on the planet. At least in the short term, Russia stands well suited to step in to address the various harvest shortfalls in the world grain markets.

While it is unlikely that it will be asked to sell grain to the US, were that to happen, it would be a major historic irony. During the Soviet harvest failures of the early 1970's it was Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who orchestrated, with the complicity of Cargill and the grain cartel, sale of tons of grain to the USSR at enormously inflated prices in what came to be called the Great Grain Robbery, sending grain prices in the Chicago commodity exchanges to 125 year highs. Combined with the 1973-74 OPEC 400% oil price shock, one in which the sneaky diplomacy of the same Kissinger played a central role, food and oil were responsible for the great inflation of the 1970's, not the wage demands of American or European workers as we were told.
About The Author

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook."
 

viking

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#4
"increases in heavy rain events are also among the most anticipated and well-documented impacts from climate change."

Of course...
 

Silver

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#5
Our monsoon season started early this year and what is different is that it hails every time it rains, sometimes it's big hail. To hell with that!
 

Bigjon

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#6
Funny no mention of HAARP...……… just sayin

I see them spraying the painted on clouds almost every day. Like we need more clouds?
 

smooth

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"increases in heavy rain events are also among the most anticipated and well-documented impacts from climate change."

Of course...
And so are droughts, cold snaps, heat waves, tornadoes, hurricanes and sunsets....
 

gnome

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#10
So was it climate change that caused the prior record rain 125 years ago?
.
.
I had the same reaction, until I read more carefully... it's the wettest 12 months ever recorded. 125 years ago was not a record rainfall year, it's when national rainfall records began.
 

Alton

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Mainstream meteorology remains stuck on stupid. There are mamy, many more types of energy emanated from the sun than mere heat and visible light. Weather on earth is powered by much more than than winds, cold fronts and warm fronts. Trends are predicated on more than just 2 consecutive years of seasonal differences than the previous 2 consecutive years. Mainstream meteorology simply will not acknowledge the major role that electric energy produced and transmitted by and from the sun is THE driving factor of earth's weather and seismicity. Because of this they do not see that weather trends and and cycles follow the solar cycles. Amazingly, The Old Farmers Almanac is far more advanced here than modern meteorology and is often found to be more accurate in predicting changes in weather than national or local forecasters. NOAA in the US and the MET office in the UK suffer from political influence (agendas) in subservience to those who sign their paychecks. They, of course, are "all in" on anthropogenic global warming. The new term is now "Climate Change" which means NOTHING. It is indeed a nebulous term selected precisely because they can make it seem to mean absolutely anything they want it to mean. How convenient for the purveyors of lies and agendas...

Yes Virginia, there is climate change...ALL the time. It is NOT anthropogenic. Instead, climate is driven by the sun, the galaxy and the whole of the cosmos. The earth is but a small component in a solar circuit which is a sub-circuit of the Milky Way Galaxy which is a sub-circuit of the universe. Earth's role in this circuitry is as a small value capacitor. Here size does not matter. What matters is our capacitance which is in quite good order. You will also notice that the activities of humans do not disturb earth's role as a capacitor. The earth continues to charge (aurora borealas/aurora australus) and discharge (lightning/sprites/etc.) Even when people are in the path of these discharges (a more frequent occurrence due to increase in populations) that the discharge continues on. Some people live through these events, others don't. All of our industrial activities, polluting, mining and otherwise altering the surface of the earth and it's atmosphere does NOTHING to alter the charging and discharging of the earth. The earth remains a well functioning capacitor in the cosmic circuitry. No man, no collective of men, no amount of money, no level of political power, no science, no technology can alter or otherwise change the capacitive function of this earth. It is a fundamental reality of life on this earth and it is humans that must adjust themselves to this reality and condition themselves and their expectations to this reality. Any scheme to do otherwise is not only a lie and deception but a snare to trap subject humans and human energies to an utterly futile cause. In a word, slavery. Only EVIL does this to humans.
 

gnome

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Mainstream meteorology remains stuck on stupid. There are mamy, many more types of energy emanated from the sun than mere heat and visible light. Weather on earth is powered by much more than than winds, cold fronts and warm fronts. Trends are predicated on more than just 2 consecutive years of seasonal differences than the previous 2 consecutive years. Mainstream meteorology simply will not acknowledge the major role that electric energy produced and transmitted by and from the sun is THE driving factor of earth's weather and seismicity. Because of this they do not see that weather trends and and cycles follow the solar cycles. Amazingly, The Old Farmers Almanac is far more advanced here than modern meteorology and is often found to be more accurate in predicting changes in weather than national or local forecasters. NOAA in the US and the MET office in the UK suffer from political influence (agendas) in subservience to those who sign their paychecks. They, of course, are "all in" on anthropogenic global warming. The new term is now "Climate Change" which means NOTHING. It is indeed a nebulous term selected precisely because they can make it seem to mean absolutely anything they want it to mean. How convenient for the purveyors of lies and agendas...

Yes Virginia, there is climate change...ALL the time. It is NOT anthropogenic. Instead, climate is driven by the sun, the galaxy and the whole of the cosmos. The earth is but a small component in a solar circuit which is a sub-circuit of the Milky Way Galaxy which is a sub-circuit of the universe. Earth's role in this circuitry is as a small value capacitor. Here size does not matter. What matters is our capacitance which is in quite good order. You will also notice that the activities of humans do not disturb earth's role as a capacitor. The earth continues to charge (aurora borealas/aurora australus) and discharge (lightning/sprites/etc.) Even when people are in the path of these discharges (a more frequent occurrence due to increase in populations) that the discharge continues on. Some people live through these events, others don't. All of our industrial activities, polluting, mining and otherwise altering the surface of the earth and it's atmosphere does NOTHING to alter the charging and discharging of the earth. The earth remains a well functioning capacitor in the cosmic circuitry. No man, no collective of men, no amount of money, no level of political power, no science, no technology can alter or otherwise change the capacitive function of this earth. It is a fundamental reality of life on this earth and it is humans that must adjust themselves to this reality and condition themselves and their expectations to this reality. Any scheme to do otherwise is not only a lie and deception but a snare to trap subject humans and human energies to an utterly futile cause. In a word, slavery. Only EVIL does this to humans.
Solar output has been decreasing since the 1960's.
The solar cycles don't even correlate with accelerating warming, never mind cause it.
 

Scorpio

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#14
Sun's Activity Increased in Past Century, Study Confirms

By Jeanna Bryner September 26, 2006 Science & Astronomy


The energy output from the Sun has increased significantly during the 20th century, according to a new study.
Many studies have attempted to determine whether there is an upward trend in the average magnitude of sunspots and solar flares over time, but few firm conclusions have been reached.
Now, an international team of researchers led by Ilya Usoskin of the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory at the University of Oulu, Finland, may have the answer. They examined meteorites that had fallen to Earth over the past 240 years. By analyzing the amount of titanium 44, a radioactive isotope, the team found a significant increase in the Sun's radioactive output during the 20th century.
Over the past few decades, however, they found the solar activity has stabilized at this higher-than-historic level.

more here:
https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-increased-century-study-confirms.html
 

Hystckndle

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Mainstream meteorology remains stuck on stupid. There are mamy, many more types of energy emanated from the sun than mere heat and visible light. Weather on earth is powered by much more than than winds, cold fronts and warm fronts. Trends are predicated on more than just 2 consecutive years of seasonal differences than the previous 2 consecutive years. Mainstream meteorology simply will not acknowledge the major role that electric energy produced and transmitted by and from the sun is THE driving factor of earth's weather and seismicity. Because of this they do not see that weather trends and and cycles follow the solar cycles. Amazingly, The Old Farmers Almanac is far more advanced here than modern meteorology and is often found to be more accurate in predicting changes in weather than national or local forecasters. NOAA in the US and the MET office in the UK suffer from political influence (agendas) in subservience to those who sign their paychecks. They, of course, are "all in" on anthropogenic global warming. The new term is now "Climate Change" which means NOTHING. It is indeed a nebulous term selected precisely because they can make it seem to mean absolutely anything they want it to mean. How convenient for the purveyors of lies and agendas...

Yes Virginia, there is climate change...ALL the time. It is NOT anthropogenic. Instead, climate is driven by the sun, the galaxy and the whole of the cosmos. The earth is but a small component in a solar circuit which is a sub-circuit of the Milky Way Galaxy which is a sub-circuit of the universe. Earth's role in this circuitry is as a small value capacitor. Here size does not matter. What matters is our capacitance which is in quite good order. You will also notice that the activities of humans do not disturb earth's role as a capacitor. The earth continues to charge (aurora borealas/aurora australus) and discharge (lightning/sprites/etc.) Even when people are in the path of these discharges (a more frequent occurrence due to increase in populations) that the discharge continues on. Some people live through these events, others don't. All of our industrial activities, polluting, mining and otherwise altering the surface of the earth and it's atmosphere does NOTHING to alter the charging and discharging of the earth. The earth remains a well functioning capacitor in the cosmic circuitry. No man, no collective of men, no amount of money, no level of political power, no science, no technology can alter or otherwise change the capacitive function of this earth. It is a fundamental reality of life on this earth and it is humans that must adjust themselves to this reality and condition themselves and their expectations to this reality. Any scheme to do otherwise is not only a lie and deception but a snare to trap subject humans and human energies to an utterly futile cause. In a word, slavery. Only EVIL does this to humans.
Guys like you,
Posts like this,
Keep this place going and make it for me.
Good read that is.
Just saying.
 

Rusty Shackelford

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#16
I had the same reaction, until I read more carefully... it's the wettest 12 months ever recorded. 125 years ago was not a record rainfall year, it's when national rainfall records began.
Considering we are 4 billions years old I am not gonna get to alarmed only looking at 125 years of data. Typical Indiana weather....if you dont like it just wait 30 minutes and it will change
 

Rusty Shackelford

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Solar output has been decreasing since the 1960's.
The solar cycles don't even correlate with accelerating warming, never mind cause it.
It is June 16th and I have yet to turn the AC on...I almost always have it on in early May.
 

DodgebyDave

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#18
The AC is never off!

Nobody is panicking on Marco Island......

Down this a way we get a storm in the morning and one in the afternoon.

Also. It never gets cold or snow.
 
Last edited:

Alton

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Solar output has been decreasing since the 1960's.
The solar cycles don't even correlate with accelerating warming, never mind cause it.
That's actually part of the solar cycle. Look at the many "minimums" earth has endured down through the ages. You can even find Maunder's book to download free online. It's an interesting read and show what observation can provide.
 

Alton

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Considering we are 4 billions years old I am not gonna get to alarmed only looking at 125 years of data. Typical Indiana weather....if you dont like it just wait 30 minutes and it will change
Up here in northern Hoosierville we have not had 3 consecutive days without rain yet this year. We also keep getting hit with these blasts out of Canuckistan that make it feel much more like Autumn than a typical spring. That last one was like a slow moving land hurricane but it came up from the southeast and on the back side of it, it kept pulling down cold air across a still cold Lake Michigan. I had to get out a jacket to go outside and do anything. Today the rain continues albeit with a bit more warmth and associated mugginess.

Strawberries are late and puny this year. Appears the peach crop is mighty weak too. Apples aren't looking so good. Asparagus was late but still good even though a smaller and more expensive crop than usual. The only bonus was that asparagus season seemed to be extended by about 2 weeks. Corn will be a wash this year. I'm kind of concerned about cantaloup. I still think Indiana has the best fresh cantaloup in the country. Might be a bad year for hay too even though it's a grass crop...too wet for farmers to get into their fields to plant!.

Friend of mine up in Michigan toward Port Huron raises horses, chickens and dogs and he and the Mrs. are considering dropping the horses partly due to their age but also because they are looking at the probable rising cost of hay. The dogs can't get out and run because the rain hasn't enough time to drain fully from the field and this years ticks seem to be getting out of control because he can't get out to mow the field!

Going to be interesting come autumn.
 

Uglytruth

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#22
So much rain the bees can't gather as much nectar or pollen as it's been washed off.
 

hammerhead

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So much rain the bees can't gather as much nectar or pollen as it's been washed off.
They have been slow coming around here. Finally started to see a few buzzing around the flowers. Got a good drenching today with the rest of the week supposed to be wet with the exception of tomorrow.
 

smooth

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Mainstream meteorology remains stuck on stupid. There are mamy, many more types of energy emanated from the sun than mere heat and visible light. Weather on earth is powered by much more than than winds, cold fronts and warm fronts. Trends are predicated on more than just 2 consecutive years of seasonal differences than the previous 2 consecutive years. Mainstream meteorology simply will not acknowledge the major role that electric energy produced and transmitted by and from the sun is THE driving factor of earth's weather and seismicity. Because of this they do not see that weather trends and and cycles follow the solar cycles. Amazingly, The Old Farmers Almanac is far more advanced here than modern meteorology and is often found to be more accurate in predicting changes in weather than national or local forecasters. NOAA in the US and the MET office in the UK suffer from political influence (agendas) in subservience to those who sign their paychecks. They, of course, are "all in" on anthropogenic global warming. The new term is now "Climate Change" which means NOTHING. It is indeed a nebulous term selected precisely because they can make it seem to mean absolutely anything they want it to mean. How convenient for the purveyors of lies and agendas...

Yes Virginia, there is climate change...ALL the time. It is NOT anthropogenic. Instead, climate is driven by the sun, the galaxy and the whole of the cosmos. The earth is but a small component in a solar circuit which is a sub-circuit of the Milky Way Galaxy which is a sub-circuit of the universe. Earth's role in this circuitry is as a small value capacitor. Here size does not matter. What matters is our capacitance which is in quite good order. You will also notice that the activities of humans do not disturb earth's role as a capacitor. The earth continues to charge (aurora borealas/aurora australus) and discharge (lightning/sprites/etc.) Even when people are in the path of these discharges (a more frequent occurrence due to increase in populations) that the discharge continues on. Some people live through these events, others don't. All of our industrial activities, polluting, mining and otherwise altering the surface of the earth and it's atmosphere does NOTHING to alter the charging and discharging of the earth. The earth remains a well functioning capacitor in the cosmic circuitry. No man, no collective of men, no amount of money, no level of political power, no science, no technology can alter or otherwise change the capacitive function of this earth. It is a fundamental reality of life on this earth and it is humans that must adjust themselves to this reality and condition themselves and their expectations to this reality. Any scheme to do otherwise is not only a lie and deception but a snare to trap subject humans and human energies to an utterly futile cause. In a word, slavery. Only EVIL does this to humans.
That's what I meant to say....
 

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#28
Considering we are 4 billions years old I am not gonna get to alarmed only looking at 125 years of data. Typical Indiana weather....if you dont like it just wait 30 minutes and it will change
This 1000%. The Earth is OLD...to state that our 125 years of "data" is the quintessential record of our Climate is disingenuous at the least. It's like getting your annual weather information from a Mayfly that only lives a few hours. There are daily cycles, monthly cycles, annual cycles, decadal cycles and longer much longer cycles that we have not actually experienced in all likelihood.

Oh, and that doesn't count meteors, volcanos or other catastrophes that scientists/archeologists/climatologists don't like to mention when referring to "global warming".
 

Thecrensh

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#29
Remember the 300 year Biblical Drought in Commiefornia?...

Gone.

View attachment 133857 View attachment 133858
Exactly. The USGS used to call those red areas "decadal" drought areas...they were of the mindset that it would take over a decade for the impacted areas to recover. Here we are less than 2 years from a SW "megadrought" and boom...CA not in a drought.
 

gnome

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#30
That's actually part of the solar cycle. Look at the many "minimums" earth has endured down through the ages. You can even find Maunder's book to download free online. It's an interesting read and show what observation can provide.
Yes, that's one of the natural cycles that appears to drive climate change....

The thing is, if we were following the solar cycles, we would have been cooling for the last half-century. But we have been warming at an accelerating rate. Solar cycles are not driving present climate change. Natural variability has been completely overwhelmed by co2 forcing.

I think it was around 2014 when people here on GIM were declaring a new maunder minimum, because the sunspots had gone completely quiet. 5 years later...where is the new ice age? I'll wait.

It's an immutable property of co2, methane & water vapor that they trap infra-red heat.
This fact of elementary chemistry was quantified BEFORE THE CIVIL WAR.

 

gnome

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#31
Sun's Activity Increased in Past Century, Study Confirms

By Jeanna Bryner September 26, 2006 Science & Astronomy


The energy output from the Sun has increased significantly during the 20th century, according to a new study.
Many studies have attempted to determine whether there is an upward trend in the average magnitude of sunspots and solar flares over time, but few firm conclusions have been reached.
Now, an international team of researchers led by Ilya Usoskin of the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory at the University of Oulu, Finland, may have the answer. They examined meteorites that had fallen to Earth over the past 240 years. By analyzing the amount of titanium 44, a radioactive isotope, the team found a significant increase in the Sun's radioactive output during the 20th century.
Over the past few decades, however, they found the solar activity has stabilized at this higher-than-historic level.

more here:
https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-increased-century-study-confirms.html
Yes, the early part of the 20th century saw a significant uptick in solar output, peaking around 1950-1960... it's been decreasing for 60 years, while temperature rise has been accelerating that entire time. Temperature seemed to vaguely track solar cycles until about 1970, at which point there is a dramatic divergence.

 

gnome

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#32
This shows the divergence, but it is much more dramatic now because we are 10 years later about 1c above baseline, and 415ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

https---assets.climatecentral.org-images-made-2018NCA_TempCO2_UPDATED2_900_506_s_c1_c_c.jpg
 

Scorpio

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#33
gnome,

don't have a problem with the charts, as they or it can be quantifiable,
I presume most here agree, and some of us have talked of our experiences over time noticing the changes

If you remember back in the day, ozone depletion was the rule at the time. They declared we needed to change, as once the ozone was gone, it was gone, the earth would warm and on it went.

Well, it turns out, we made some changes, and like Lake Erie, nature is healing itself, wherein the ozone is projected to go to normal some years out.

Stating this, then a question becomes, does ozone depletion contribute to the warming, thereby rising co2?

etc, So when they are declaring the answers, do they really know?

I argue they do not.


Ozone Layer Protection

The stratospheric ozone layer is Earth’s “sunscreen” – protecting living things from too much ultraviolet radiation from the sun. The emission of ozone depleting substances has been damaging the ozone layer. But through domestic and international action, the ozone layer is healing and should fully recover by about 2065.

https://www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection
 

Rusty Shackelford

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#34
Gnome, you do know that you could change the CO2 axis to human population growth and get almost the exact same curve and best fit line, yet the alarmists say nothing outside of radical population control as a solution (although indirectly the majority of the same people are on the abortion at all cost train).

the graph is also startling because of the dramatic curve that is represent by only have the temp axis represent 1 degree of change over 137 years. what does the graph look like project the change from High to Low over 1000 years. What about the variation over 10,000, or 100,000 or even 1million years. That scary line flattens out right quick would be my guess and that wont get anyone excited to spend money on a cure.

JMO
 
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Thecrensh

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#35
This shows the divergence, but it is much more dramatic now because we are 10 years later about 1c above baseline, and 415ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

View attachment 133958

There's a reason all the "global warming" charts start around 1850-1880. Prior to that, the Earth was coming down from a warm period into the "little ice age". So what the agenda drivers are doing is showing an incomplete dataset in order to skew perceptions. If you put the global temps from say, 1000AD, you'll see several periods that were as warm as, or warmer than today.
 

Merlin

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#36
My roommate tells me that some local farmers have decided not to plant at all this year--just too damned muddy in the fields nearing the end of June. Growing season isn't very long around here. But that's happened before, hasn't it? I grew up in a small farming community, and remember it was always seemingly feast or famine out on the farms. On balance, though, not so bad; all the farmer's kids went to college.
 

Alton

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#38
remember gentlemen, when we spin up the turbines, ours are called conspiracies,

whereas theirs are always facts and it is time to break out the checkbooks.............

View attachment 133974
Mine MUST have a tinfoil lining... ummmm....to protect me from the...yeah...the sun...that's right.

In other news, Minnesota is cold in June...


All-time low temperature records tumble in Minnesota as jet stream draws brutal Arctic air southward



Cap Allon
Electroverse
Mon, 17 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC







During a solar minimum, the jet stream’s usual Zonal Flow (a west–east direction) reverts to more of a Meridional Flow (a north-south direction) which is exaggerated further during a Grand Solar Minimum and explains why regions become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy.

More all-time low temperatures records tumbled in Minnesota late last week, as the meridional jet stream flow (linked to low solar activity) continues to draw brutal Arctic air anomalously south.


The mercury sank low enough on Thursday, June 13 to prompt frost advisories for the Iron Range, Twin Ports, East Central MN and Douglas County - with both Hibbing and Hayward setting new all-time daily low temperature records:
  • The city of Hibbing set a new low of -2.2C (28F) on Thursday- beating the previous record of -1.1C (30F) set in 1969 (solar minimum of cycle 19).
  • While Hayward's new low of -0.6C (31F) smashed the old record of 1.7C (35F) from 2012.
In fact, Thursday was the third day in a row that Hibbing busted the daily low temperature record.

The Changing Jet Stream

During a solar minimum, the jet stream's usual Zonal Flow (a west-east direction) reverts to more of a Meridional Flow (a north-south direction) - this is exaggerated further during a Grand Solar Minimum, like the one we're entering now, and explains why regions become unseasonably hot or cold and others unusually dry or rainy, with the extremes lasting for an extended period of time.

Note the recent hysteria regarding the anomalous warmth lingering over Greenland.

Well, Greenland's cold temperatures haven't up and vanished, nor have they been heated by the magic CO2 affect, or escaped Earth's atmosphere and leaked into space; they've simply been diverted south by a wavy jet stream - and this is the main reason for the lower latitudes experiencing record low temperatures of late.

In fact, the United States just suffered it's coldest October to May in recorded history.

We've known these mechanisms for decades, as this article from 1975's Science Mag would indicate, but as they clash with the modern politicised AGW agenda, they've conveniently been forgotten:

Furthermore, looking at NASA's Maunder Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Map, it would appear some regions of the planet do actually warm during global cooling - the Arctic, Alaska and S Greenland being the main ones (although 'warm' to the Arctic, for example, is still well-below freezing, there's no additional melt):

Earth's climate is cyclic, never linear - driven mainly by the sun.

And history is repeating.

Global Average Temperatures are trending cooler, even as the far-upper-latitudes trend a little warmer.

Don't be fooled.

The cold times are returning, as the sun enters it's next Grand Solar Minimum cycle:
 

spinalcracker

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#39
My roommate tells me that some local farmers have decided not to plant at all this year--just too damned muddy in the fields nearing the end of June. Growing season isn't very long around here. But that's happened before, hasn't it? I grew up in a small farming community, and remember it was always seemingly feast or famine out on the farms. On balance, though, not so bad; all the farmer's kids went to college.

75B4BE5E-B2DE-4685-9E97-8AF266A6FE19.jpeg