2019 American Legion Commemorative Coins

Starter · Jan 26, 2019

2019 American Legion Commemorative Coins

Available on 3/14:

https://catalog.usmint.gov/the-amer...d-5-gold-coin-19CK.html?cgid=product-schedule

https://catalog.usmint.gov/the-amer...silver-dollar-19CM.html?cgid=product-schedule

https://catalog.usmint.gov/the-amer...d-half-dollar-19CP.html?cgid=product-schedule

My first take on this commemorative theme:

The first thing that comes to mind is that 2019 offers two different commemorative themes that both offer gold, silver, and clad coins. Moreover, the other theme Apollo is bound to take the lion's share of US Mint sales, due to its immense popularity. Like we saw in 2016, both Mark Twain and National Park mintage numbers were quite low, despite both themes being very popular, as collectors had to allocate their dry powder across the various offerings in both commemorative themes.

The 2017 Boys Town scored record low numbers in all categories thanks to the very low popularity of the theme. The Breast Cancer theme of 2018 was somewhat popular, but this was reflected only in the proof coin sales, while unc coin sales were comparable to Boys Town.

My feeling is that this year's American Legion theme is no more popular than Breast Cancer. The main difference is that Legion and Apollo both occur in 2019, and the lion's share of sales that will inevitably be claimed by Apollo will leave mere crumbs for American Legion sales. And coming later during the year will also help keep final sales down for American Legion.

Not as popular as National Park by far, but popular enough to have recognition for collectors.

Starter · Jan 26, 2019

Here are the designs:

https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-m...-coins/american-legion-100th-anniversary-gold

https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-m...oins/american-legion-100th-anniversary-silver

https://www.usmint.gov/coins/coin-m...-coins/american-legion-100th-anniversary-clad

newmisty · Jan 26, 2019

Starter said:

Thanks starter, the suspense was killin me.

The $5 isn't too bad looking. The others look all of the other failed commems to me.

Buck · Jan 26, 2019

newmisty said:

Beauty is in the eye of the wallet holder
These 'failed commems' as you call them will be worth a small fortune in a few years, the small mintages alone qualify them as Key Issues in this series and there are lots of collectors of these coins

It'll take a while for the secondary market to reflect this valuation, it always does, and these 'failed' issues will not be any different than say a 1996D Paralympic Unc Silver Dollar now floating around $250

You can call them anything you like, I'll call them profitable as I'm still picking the new one's up for, 35-125 per certified coin, (depends on the grade).

Great Time to be a collector

Starter · Feb 3, 2019

Buck said:

I agree.

Although the relative lack of interest indicated by low sales from the Mint puts temporary downward pressure on secondary market prices--for example, with the 2017 Boys Town clad and silver coins--the coins will gradually move out of the hands of owners with weak hands and into those of true collectors. The very low mintage numbers mean that the supply of coins under those owners will eventually be depleted, and fundamental market forces will push prices upward.

The commemorative style of coins established over the last 35 years has a long history with many winners established over that time, mostly from low mintage.

Starter · Feb 17, 2019

newmisty said:

The $5 gold unc has some background traits that should help its prices in the secondary market:

1) A good design with a relatively patriotic theme.

2) Concurrent mintage with a $5 gold unc coin from a different commemorative theme of the same year (Apollo).

3) Concurrent mintage with a $5 gold unc coin from a different, but much more popular, commemorative theme of the same year (Apollo).

4) Concurrent mintage with a $5 gold proof coin from the 3-coin set of the same commemorative theme.

The American Legion theme looks a lot like the Lyons Club theme of 2017. The 2017 Lions Club $1 silver unc ended the year with a mintage of 17,250, or several thousand coins higher than the 2017 Boys Town $1 silver unc, which ended at 12,313.

The key factor for this coin will be the mintage. If it can end the year with a mintage below 5,000, I think it will be a winner. I will need to see the first 2 or 3 sales reports of this coin to decide whether I should buy more than one, just one, or none.

Starter · Mar 17, 2019

First day sales numbers have been published by Coin News:

http://www.coinnews.net/2019/03/15/...morative-coin-sales-reach-39671-in-first-day/

Here are some key figures:

American Legion

Total Sales
$3,629,464.25

Uncirculated $5 Gold
972

Uncirculated $1 Silver
4,678

Uncirculated 50c Clad
5,454

http://www.coinnews.net/2018/03/16/2018-breast-cancer-awareness-coin-sales-reach-37778-in-first-day/

Here are the corresponding Breast Cancer figures from last year:

Total Sales
$3,975,071.70

Uncirculated $5 Gold
2,116

Uncirculated $1 Silver
5,478

Uncirculated 50c Clad
5,094

The total first day sales are very close to last year's, but nearly half of those sales are from the 3-coin proof set (which was not part of last year's Breast Cancer coins). So uncirculated numbers are lower as a result, with the exception of the 50c clad.

My take on the 50c clad unc sales being higher this year is that many speculators took notice of last year's Breast Cancer clad unc coin setting a record far below the previous low-mintage record by a few thousand coins (partly due to the price increase by the Mint from 2017 to 2018). They must have realized that the $5 price increase was justified, and I agree--especially if it means that the coins are minted with far higher quality.

First day silver unc sales came in a bit lower than last year's, and those for the gold unc came in much lower than last year's. This bolsters the idea that sales of the last year's gold unc and proof were made based on the curiosity factor of the pink color of the coins.

The main takeaway from these numbers is that the gold unc is starting to look interesting. Of course, we need 2 or 3 weeks of sales figures to have a clearer picture of the situation.

Foxwoods Man · Mar 18, 2019

These will be on sale for the next 8+ months so no rush to analyze early numbers. In my opinion, mintage limits are way too high to stimulate much interest. If you like the design or the topic then this is for you.

First day sales:

Starter · Mar 18, 2019

There is a $5 reward per coin ordered for those who are able to make their decisions within one month after the release date.

Starter · Mar 20, 2019

Here are the sales numbers for 3/17:

Commemoratives 19CJ 2019 AMERICAN LEGION GOLD PROOF 1239 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CK 2019 AMERICAN LEGION GOLD UNC 1199 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CL 2019 AMERICAN LEGION SILVER PROOF 13799 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CM 2019 AMERICAN LEGION SILVER UNC 6134 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CN 2019 AMERICAN LEGION CLAD PROOF 9146 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CP 2019 AMERICAN LEGION CLAD UNC 7039 03/17/2019
Commemoratives 19CR 2019 AMERICAN LEGION 3-COIN SET 4512 03/17/2019

This covers less than a week of sales.

Next week's numbers will hopefully give more clues.

Starter · Mar 26, 2019

American Legion sales numbers for 3/24:

With record low numbers from Boys Town and Breast Cancer, it will be hard for Legion to break some of those records.

Second week sales for Boys Town and Breast Cancer for reference:

Looking at these second week sales numbers, it does not seem likely that any of the Legion coins will become the new key in their series, facing stiff competition from Boys Town for the gold and silver coins, and from Breast Cancer for the clad coins.

The good news is that the numbers are close. For example, the Legion gold unc may not become the new key in its series, but it now has a good chance of becoming the solid #2 over Breast Cancer, without the negative characteristics of the 85% Au and rose color that weaken the Breast Cancer gold unc coin's market value.

And the Legion silver unc, along with the clad unc, may go into holiday season without having key mintage status, decreasing the chances that an end-of-year sales surge will take place. A favorable scenario may then be to nearly tie the key coin mintage. The designs of the coins will then be their redeeming strength in the market.

Starter · Apr 2, 2019

More sales numbers:

And again, previous year numbers for comparison:

The Legion clad unc seems to be closing the gap between itself and last year's key coin, with 534 coins difference compared to last week's difference of 816. I will hazard a guess and say that this is because sales dollars are being siphoned away to the Apollo program. If the same trend continues next week, I might decide to buy several of these coins.

The Legion gold unc is 316 coins above Boys Town this week, compared to last week's difference of 399, closing the gap by a smaller amount. Likewise, the Legion silver unc is 1163 coins above Boys Town this week, compared to last week's difference of 1247.

At this point, I am leaning toward the clad unc being a winner. Not only because of the prospect of low mintage, but also because of the good design. Unlike last year's coin, it does not share its design with the other coins in the group, and potential sales dollars are lost not due to weak demand, but lack of funds due to the presence of the Apollo coin offerings.

The gold unc has the wildcard factor of being able to finish the year with extremely low mintage (despite not key mintage, perhaps). Although the Breast Cancer coin now has weak prices on the market even with the 2nd-lowest mintage, I am quite sure it is because of the 85% gold content and unusual rose color--bad traits not shared by the Legion coin. Not to mention that Legion is likely to finish well below the mintage of Breast Cancer.

Besides these two picks, I am rather doubtful about the remaining coins in this group. Although the silver unc has a chance of finishing very low, the unc silver dollars of Boys Town and Breast Cancer are having trouble in the market breaking past doubling their issue price, despite being new keys in the series. I reckon that Legion will face a similar situation, even if it ends with comparable mintage.

Starter · Apr 2, 2019

I would also like to add that buying the gold unc early because of the introductory discount is probably not a good idea, due to the relatively high price of the coin.

The clad unc, on the other hand, stands to gain much more in value from the introductory discount.

Starter · Apr 5, 2019

I just made my order for 5 clad unc coins and 1 clad proof coin.

Depending on next week's sales report, I may decide to make another similar order if I feel the clad coins show enough promise. My funds are more limited, just like most other collectors, due to having already spent some dry powder on the Apollo coins.

In my mind, Legion falls in a different category than Apollo, however. Apollo will help its coin values through its popularity, whereas Legion will rely on its low mintage to boost values--that is, assuming that the low sales continue throughout the year.

Low mintage proved to be a strong factor in the market for the Breast Cancer clad unc and proof coins, and I think the same trend will hold for the Legion coins. The price increase at the Mint for clad coins that began in 2018 discouraged casual buyers from adding them to orders just for fun, but this resulted in very low mintage which helped market values of 70-graded coins especially.

From my own experience with the Breast Cancer clad coins, the lower sales improved the quality of the coins as well--though this may be due to the timing of my purchases last year. For this reason, I am following the pattern of my orders from last year, but with fewer coins.

Starter · Apr 10, 2019

Here are the new sales numbers:

And those from previous years:

So the Legion clad unc now has sales of 571 higher than Breast Cancer for the corresponding week, which is a bigger difference than last week, indicating a relative pickup in sales. There is no clear trend up or down for this mintage number. However, the Legion clad unc has a clear margin of 2825 coins below Boys Town for the corresponding week. So looking at the big picture, the race is looking good for this coin.

The Legion gold unc is 395 above Boys Town mintage, which is higher than last week's difference. Again, there is no clear trend up or down, and the Legion gold unc has a clear margin of 1898 coins below Breast Cancer for the corresponding week.

Both the Breast Cancer clad unc and Boys Town gold unc set very high standards in terms of both low mintage and secondary market price. So it is unrealistic to expect a new key coin every year, including this year. If the mintage of the Legion coins can come close to these two other coins, I think we have a good chance of doing well.

It turns out that there is no introductory discount for the Legion gold coins, after all. But unlike the other coins, there is a chance that the price can move upward or downward with the price of gold. If we catch the price on the low side, we can end up with a discount in the end.

I will probably move forward with my second order of Legion clad coins as planned.

Starter · Apr 11, 2019

Actually, the Boys Town numbers were accidentally taken from the corresponding week in 2017 of last week's sales.

Here are the correct Boys Town numbers:

So the Legion clad unc has a margin of 3374 (not 2825) below Boys Town for the corresponding week, and the Legion gold unc is 289 (not 395) above Boys Town mintage for the corresponding week.

I should also upgrade my assessment of the Legion gold unc slightly, as it now seems to be gaining some ground on Boys Town in terms of low mintage. We should also remember that the Boys Town gold unc ended with its final mintage by being discontinued early. A scenario still exists where the Mint may decide to do the same thing this year, potentially taking away the crucial sales of the holiday season.

savvydon · Saturday at 12:50 AM

Starter said:

It's not just the holiday season. Many collectors, speculators, and dealers watch the pop numbers to try to decide whether or not year end purchases are justified. In a sense, everyone is watching everyone else to see what, and how much, is being purchased. The true believer, who goes in early, may be rewarded when the mint surprises the public with early withdrawal of a coin. It happens pretty frequently, but I know of no pattern that will identify when it is likely to happen. I have never seen any other outsider come up with a good predictive model either. The mint can be opaque and unfathomable.

Starter · Saturday at 8:50 AM

savvydon said:

Agree, and I am one of those true believers--but not nearly as much of a true believer as when I bought 6 National Park gold unc coins. I was very optimistic when prices shot into the $800 range, but I was not familiar enough with the grading submission process to capitalize on the high prices. I think once collectors realized that National Park would soon lose its key coin status to Boys Town, the prices took a dive. At least the coin is holding above its issue price now.

Now, my preferred approach is to make the most out of the introductory discount of the first month of sales and try to use the first few weeks of sales data to estimate the mintage. Basically, I forfeit the knowledge of the remaining sales numbers in exchange for a price discount. This discount will matter the most for the coins that have the lowest price tag, which are the clad half dollars and to a lesser extent, the silver dollars. Last year, the Mint countered this tactic by raising the clad half prices by $5 each, but it ended up working in favor of clad half collectors by significantly lowering the mintage and improving the quality of the coins. So, for now, I am a clad half collector, but I'm not going all in.

2019 American Legion Commemorative Coins

Starter

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newmisty

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Buck

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Foxwoods Man

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