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A picture of a short squeeze in progress...
- Thread starter ^updated^
- Start date
I agree with your forecast and I'm thinking it's much ado about nothing.
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Like when Clinton bought cattle futures. The firm bought both sides, the side that "won" was Hillary's buy, the "losing" side was "somebody else's bet". After the fact.
An early form of "gofundme" and "speech making fees" and "book advance".
An early form of "gofundme" and "speech making fees" and "book advance".
Go long on Mutuals
If you want to gamble the waitresses are prettier in Vegas
If you want to gamble the waitresses are prettier in Vegas
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i thought those make-believe shares were titled a few years back, they sell like hot-cakes;
Derivatives
like fools gold, people are tricked all the time
it tricked the SEC who actually thought they were 'real shares'
It's also been noted places that many people were getting "Free" Gamestop stock last year when it was around $5. I had lots of suspicions that they never owned any of the stocks they "gave away". This would also explain how there are extra shares available and why RH needed to raise so much cash.
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Take a look at the premiums. Friday ASE $32, today $45.
Shorting is one thing, neekid shorting is cr
Premiums tell the story, and the story is the spot price is pure fiction.
.
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Premiums tell the story, and the story is the spot price is pure fiction.
.
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Whoopdeedoo.
Love the dips cause we are buying more on the dips.
The paper spot price will soon be meaningless as the real price at the dealers is the only one that counts.
One ounce silver eagles are $45 at the silver store. The CRIMEX price will soon go to zero, as the CRIMEX becomes defunct.
Whoopdeedoo.
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I'm reading rumors the phyzz move is real, just WSB removed all the threads thinking it was the hedgies trying to divert funds from GME.
It makes sense to me. I don't believe though that the shorts were reduced on GME, only group that benefits is the hedgies. I call BS on that.
It makes sense to me. I don't believe though that the shorts were reduced on GME, only group that benefits is the hedgies. I call BS on that.
Lot of the buying was from other hedge funds.
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Yeah, they're hammering the spot price. But just try and find a physical ASE to buy. The dealers haven't any and the ones on ebay are ~$50. And climbing.
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Buying of?
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But GME is down 100 so someone was selling. Was bid up to $385 which I'm not sure the hedgies would??
Not really "selling": Counterfeit shares, semi-legally created via "naked shorting"
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Which begs the question, who validates shares? Are there serial numbers for each share? How do you identify counterfeit stock, and once it is identified how is it remedied?
The DTCC holds and really owns all the shares that are held in "street"name. At least that is my understanding. And they are the ones responsible for doing all of the settlements.
True. I used to work for a mutual fund company, and DTCC is the hub of it all. But they're a dinosaur and they are out of control. Lots of things are out of balance.
DTCC needs to get into the 21st century, and put all the shares of all the securities on a blockchain. Everything will always be in balance and trades will settle in 3 hours instead of 3 days (or longer).
Yes,of course, a blockchain. But there are much simpler things they could do in the meantime, and they are not doing them.
This issue only comes up, rarely, when a company is sold.
Sometimes they cannot sort out who owns what--or so I heard.
Also, companies, sometimes have elections.
I have heard that is is common that more than 100% of the shares are voted.
They aren't doing anything because all of the loopholes / problems are where their friends cheat like hell and steal Billions. Why would they do anything?
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I am no expert, but I will try to answer/guess
who validates shares?
->The brokerage company
Are there serial numbers for each share?
->Not by the time the retail dealer "sells" it. Not as far as I know.
How do you identify counterfeit stock?
->I don't know. What does that even mean? If a retail broker sells 400% of the stock it has of company "x" which of the shares are counterfeit? They are just electrons on a computer screen.
Anyway, in theory none of them are truly counterfeit. They just have to "remember" to cover their shorts...theoretically.
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A different view today from the investment porn circus
GameStop Plunged 30% Today, Is the Short Squeeze Over?
Mish
20 minutes ago
GameStop fell from $316 to $212. What's ahead?
Squeeze Likely Over
My guess is the squeeze is over. Hedge funds have covered their shorts. And we have a three surge stage that frequently marks tops in short squeezes.
The remaining shorts are small players who rode it out, hedge funds who recently got short timing the play much better, or the market makers who are now the ones net short in size.
If my thesis is correct, GameStop will go back where it came from. The market makers will pull bids as they did today.
Option Buying
Put speculation is now on the rise. Until now it was call speculation. The call sellers hedged by buying shares driving up the price.
That dynamic has changed. PUT sellers short stock as PUTs get into the money.
Options bets fuel both rises and declines, especially in illiquid stocks.
How to Play?
I am not touching this. For starters I could be wrong about the squeeze being over. I doubt it but I could be.
One could try options, but the premiums are nuts.
GameStop Option Prices
Those are near-term, near the money Option Prices From the CBOE.
Each option represents 100 shares but prices are per share. Thus prices are 1/100th of the money to buy or sell an option.
For a strike 215 PUT option that expires on February 12, in 9 trading days you will pony up $7,485 dollars or $78.85 per share.
To make any money, shares will have to decline enough for you to recover your price paid, and it has to happen by February 12.
The break even price is $215.00-$78.85 = $136.15 and it's at $225 now.
Who Wins?
You may win if you are correct about getting a big enough plunge in the next 9 days.
But the market maker who sells you the PUTs will make money no matter what happens.
He will hedge by shorting if the price declines and just watch you lose all your money if the price rises.
Maximum Pain
Don't count out price manipulation in which the price on February 12 falls at the exact price that makes the most options (PUTs and CALLs) expire worthless. That is known as "Maximum Pain".
There are technical hedging reasons why Maximum Pain happens but manipulation also happens if the market makers can get away with it.
GME Home Runs
Nonetheless home runs can and do happen. But in this case the home runs are likely in the past.
People rode this up from $17 to $413 and you want to get in now on the long side?
Why?
Yet the short side is not without risk as two hedge funds nearly blew up over this. One lost half their money in a month. It's possible the squeeze is not over.
But if you believe like me that the squeeze is over but don't like huge option premiums, the buying deep in the money PUTs will effectively turn your option play into a short without the risk of getting squeezed out.
For example, a Feb 26 strike $800 PUT would set you back $602 but the cost would be $60,020. To gain on the trade GME would have to close below ($800-$602 = $198) vs the current price of $225.
The first advantage in the trade is you have a maximum defined loss of $60,020 vs an unlimited loss in shorting.
But the advantage of that trade is you only need a decline of $27 not $89 to break even. You would also have until February 26, not February 12 to be correct.
Care to put up $60,020 per option? I don't. Care to bet on a $90 plunge by February 12? I don't but some have.
I suspect option premiums are so high that near term, near the money CALL and PUT buyers both get wiped out.
Number 1 Rule
Above all, remember my #1 rule: You may win but the casino never loses.
Mish
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/gamestop-plunged-30-today-is-the-short-squeeze-over
GameStop Plunged 30% Today, Is the Short Squeeze Over?
Mish
20 minutes ago
GameStop fell from $316 to $212. What's ahead?
Squeeze Likely Over
My guess is the squeeze is over. Hedge funds have covered their shorts. And we have a three surge stage that frequently marks tops in short squeezes.
The remaining shorts are small players who rode it out, hedge funds who recently got short timing the play much better, or the market makers who are now the ones net short in size.
If my thesis is correct, GameStop will go back where it came from. The market makers will pull bids as they did today.
Option Buying
Put speculation is now on the rise. Until now it was call speculation. The call sellers hedged by buying shares driving up the price.
That dynamic has changed. PUT sellers short stock as PUTs get into the money.
Options bets fuel both rises and declines, especially in illiquid stocks.
How to Play?
I am not touching this. For starters I could be wrong about the squeeze being over. I doubt it but I could be.
One could try options, but the premiums are nuts.
GameStop Option Prices
Those are near-term, near the money Option Prices From the CBOE.
Each option represents 100 shares but prices are per share. Thus prices are 1/100th of the money to buy or sell an option.
For a strike 215 PUT option that expires on February 12, in 9 trading days you will pony up $7,485 dollars or $78.85 per share.
To make any money, shares will have to decline enough for you to recover your price paid, and it has to happen by February 12.
The break even price is $215.00-$78.85 = $136.15 and it's at $225 now.
Who Wins?
You may win if you are correct about getting a big enough plunge in the next 9 days.
But the market maker who sells you the PUTs will make money no matter what happens.
He will hedge by shorting if the price declines and just watch you lose all your money if the price rises.
Maximum Pain
Don't count out price manipulation in which the price on February 12 falls at the exact price that makes the most options (PUTs and CALLs) expire worthless. That is known as "Maximum Pain".
There are technical hedging reasons why Maximum Pain happens but manipulation also happens if the market makers can get away with it.
GME Home Runs
Nonetheless home runs can and do happen. But in this case the home runs are likely in the past.
People rode this up from $17 to $413 and you want to get in now on the long side?
Why?
Yet the short side is not without risk as two hedge funds nearly blew up over this. One lost half their money in a month. It's possible the squeeze is not over.
But if you believe like me that the squeeze is over but don't like huge option premiums, the buying deep in the money PUTs will effectively turn your option play into a short without the risk of getting squeezed out.
For example, a Feb 26 strike $800 PUT would set you back $602 but the cost would be $60,020. To gain on the trade GME would have to close below ($800-$602 = $198) vs the current price of $225.
The first advantage in the trade is you have a maximum defined loss of $60,020 vs an unlimited loss in shorting.
But the advantage of that trade is you only need a decline of $27 not $89 to break even. You would also have until February 26, not February 12 to be correct.
Care to put up $60,020 per option? I don't. Care to bet on a $90 plunge by February 12? I don't but some have.
I suspect option premiums are so high that near term, near the money CALL and PUT buyers both get wiped out.
Number 1 Rule
Above all, remember my #1 rule: You may win but the casino never loses.
Mish
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/gamestop-plunged-30-today-is-the-short-squeeze-over
This is good
Reaction To GameStop Short, Robinhood & Reddit Drama
Reaction To GameStop Short, Robinhood & Reddit Drama
Mark Cuban on WSB
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Coming back to reality, but the WSB retards are still holding.
anyone have a clue as to short positions?
anyone have a clue as to short positions?
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Shocking. <yawn>
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/
The stock market is a fraudulent enterprise. Run away.
Note how old that data is, Jan 15 was just 2-3 days into the big breakout. Now, all guesses at short interest today or yesterday are all guesses. It takes 8 freaking business days after the 15th or 31st to report the next short interest.
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They don't wish you to be able to operate on current information...while they counterfeit nearly everything constantly and use those counterfeits to rig allegedly free markets.