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Anyone care to share their advantage gambling systems?

BeefJerky

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What if they shuffle?

Don’t they only go a certain amount of rounds and then everything gets shuffled? The more decks there are the harder it is to count effectively?
That's part of a counter's job. Finding games with good deck penetration. There are all kinds of countermeasures and game protection employed by casinos. It is the advantage player's job to identify and play the weak games. Card counting is really not worth it in today's environment. Especially since much larger edges can be had. Hole carding is where most counters gravitate to.
 

chris_is_here

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Poker seems to be the best game in town if you can get decent at it. I know people that do well sports betting too but you really have to follow sports. Back in the mid to late 90's I did well on college BB. It was a lot of work paying attention to everything going on and keeping track of it all.
I enjoy craps. 1st time I ever played I rolled for 1 1/2 hrs. Had no idea what I was doing really or would have made a lot more. Some guys were up 14k when I finished my roll. I was up 1/10th that amount. LOL.

Play solid poker and you can do well. There is variance in th game though. You can go up big and then back down. Lots of bad beats and you think the game is rigged but I have seen some crazy shit. One day at Foxwoods I was playing 100 sit and goes. Get into one and 1st hand I get aces. I raise, guy next to me reraises and we get it all in. he has kings. Hits a king. Next one 20 minutes later, literally the exact same thing. 1st hand and same exact run out. he wins with trip kings. The odds of that happening 2 games in a row has got to be astronomical but it happened. LOL. When you run good though it's a great feeling. :).
Tournnaments require some luck to make it all the way through. Cash games seem to be more profitable if you can spot the fish early on. If you cant spot the fish, find a new table because the fish may be you. :)
I've been there a few times, seen a few sights that cured me of ever wanting to get in too deep on gambling.

I was at the roullete wheel just screwing around and having fun. Next to me is this guy, obviously a working man, but he's getting in deep. He's getting creamed and upping his bets on each spin, while griping to the attendant that the wheel keeps "floating" over his number. Now, that's typical degenerate gambler mentality, and this guy was every bit that - sweaty, bug-eyed and desperate, but damned if I didn't notice that the wheel did seem to be popping right over his number, it happened several times. Now, he starts getting enraged and a crowd starts forming. I expected a couple of bruisers to come over and give this guy VIP treatment, but they let him keep going. Finally, he ups his bet one last time and his number comes up, he manages to break even and leaves in a hurry, after gratefully tipping the attendant he had been griping at moments earlier. He survived that day, but I have no doubt where he eventually landed. I swore I would never be that guy.

Casinos are scary places to me. You can't handicap video poker and you can lose your life savings in a matter of hours. And, forget card counting, the shoe is enormous and re-shuffling is done often enough to render counting meaningless. I always wonder what happens in those rare instances where a bindlestiff with no knowledge just walks in and cleans up - do the casinos ban the guy just for great luck?
 

Someone_else

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do the casinos ban the guy just for great luck?
Why would they do that? I think they would put his face on a huge poster and put it in the hallway with the other big winners. Then give him a VIP suite and comps at the nice restaurant. Maybe he'll brag loudly about his winning. Maybe he'll bring back some of that money next time.
 

ZZZZZ

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Why would they do that? I think they would put his face on a huge poster and put it in the hallway with the other big winners. Then give him a VIP suite and comps at the nice restaurant. Maybe he'll brag loudly about his winning. Maybe he'll bring back some of that money next time.

The casinos do this with all the slot machine big jackpot winners.
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goldielox1

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Good summary.

I'll just add that only 18 of the deviations from Basic Strategy are worth the time to memorize. The advantage from the other variations are infinitesimal and just clog up your brain.

The so-called Illustrious 18 are the only variations worthwhile learning. And of those, 3 of the 18 plays are 60% of the gain of the 18. These 3 are easy: when to take insurance, and when to hit 15 or 16 vs 10.

Be careful when splitting 10s. That's a red flag to the house that you are either a highly skilled card counter, or a drunken fool.

===

Illustrious 18. Term coined by Donald Schlesinger to refer to the play variations that provide players the most gain from varying from basic strategy. These plays are:​

THE ILLUSTRIOUS 18​

  • Insurance
  • 16 vs 10
  • 15 vs 10
  • 10,10 vs 5
  • 10,10 vs 6
  • 10 vs 10
  • 12 vs 3
  • 12 vs 2
  • 11 vs Ace
  • 9 vs 2
  • 10 vs Ace
  • 9 vs 7
  • 16 vs 9
  • 13 vs 2
  • 12 vs 4
  • 12 vs 5
  • 12 vs 6
  • 13 vs 3

According to Schlesinger, the insurance play alone is worth over 30% of all the gain. The BIG 3, insurance, 16 vs 10 and 15 vs 10, account for nearly 60%. The top 12 plays account for more than 90%. The above study is applicable for a typical 4-deck shoe game using the Hi-Lo system. A different counting system may add or remove a few plays to or from this list. Most professional players will know a lot more variations than those recommended here​

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I was doing a simple 10s count ratio back when I was in my early 20s. I had the counting down within a couple days of practice and memorizing basic charts with just strategy changes based on advantage situations only (when you were betting big). I typically won (net+ for the trips). The 10's strategy is perfect for the insurance bet. Deck starts at 2.3:1 Anything under 2:1 you buy the insurance. Most fools look at the insurance bet in conjunction with what their hand is. "Oh I got a good hand, I'm going to buy insurance". The insurance should be treated as an entirely separate bet uncorrelated with any of your or the dealer's hands.

I had no problem doing the 10's count on a 6 deck. As pointed out the issue is the cards are extremely unlikely to move in your favor. You could go through 5-10 shuffles before you got a situation where you had an advantage.

Regarding the poster that claimed one could gain a 2% edge overall for the entirety of ones bets, is using old data. The casinos have added more and more disadvantages to the player over time. For instance, most of the casinos won't allow one to split aces more than once. Only get one card on a split. Dealer hits soft 17 (used to stand on all 17s). Played can only double down on a few hands (restrictions on soft doubling) And a few more I've noticed. If you do a double deck, typically the restrictions are more than on a 6 deck.

I do know a surefire way to get an advantage. Hover around a 6 deck table without playing, counting. and then jump in when there's a significant advantage. Play a few "lucky hands" and then bail. Casinos IMO were less likely to care about jumping in mid deck on a 6 deck. If you do on a double deck, count on the dealer shuffling up today. Why? This was how the gambling teams would operate back in the day. Have the small fish at each table betting mins and counting, signal the big fish when a table got an advantage. The big fish would just bet big every time knowing he had an advantage based on the tip. He'd leave when the tipster told him the advantage was gone.

The individual player is supposed to adjust bet size based on advantage. Really, if one is just betting the same value hand every time and only altering decisions without changing bet size, the advantage is still negative. e.g. Even using a computer with full memory of all cards played and perfect strategy, I would be surprised if the computer could win in a monte carlo simulation (say >10,000 hands all with the same size bet). Ideally one would bet the minimum for all hands until he got a slight advantage then bet the max on all advantage hands. In reality that would raise suspicion. And also I noticed a lot of table have drastically closed the spread on min-max bets. ($10-$200). I used to see $5-$500 back in the day.

Honestly even when I was winning, it really lost its fun as you were looking at everything like a machine. Not socializing. Just doing math and such. It felt too much like work. And yea I was doing small stakes and I would have made more money just working a $20/hr job. I suppose with large enough bets one might make it worth his while, but it becomes too much like grinding away at work IMO.
 

BeefJerky

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FYI, I claimed 1.5-2% edge. Was very clear. What you are describing as hovering is called back counting. It is very hard to get away with for any period of time.

Also, if you were using a 10 count in a multi-deck game you had no edge. The 10 count system was Thorp's primitive first proven system to beat a single deck game.

This is why I hate seeing anything gambling related discussed outside of an academic setting. People wander off into misinterpretations, voodoo, confirmation bias due to variance, and all kinds of nonsense.
 
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ZZZZZ

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I do know a surefire way to get an advantage. Hover around a 6 deck table without playing, counting. and then jump in when there's a significant advantage.
Many casinos are wise to this, especially at higher limit tables. They do not allow new players to jump in in the middle of a shoe, you've got to wait until the next shuffle. Or if they let you in, you can only bet the table minimum until the next shuffle.
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LarsonLarsen

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I don't think theres a lot I can add that hasn't been stated already, but as for the initial query..it depends what you mean by "gambling".(Depends on what your definition of 'is' is)

There is a massive difference between playing poker and playing slot machines. A massive difference in sports betting and being a slot jockey.

I've played a lot of online poker. A *lot*. Before the sites in the US got shut down in 2011 it was my primary source of income for multiple years. I did this by playing pure volume. I was a sit n' go player. 12+ tables at a time. Grinding and grinding. It was a lousy life honestly. Ate poorly, slept poorly. No real schedule because you never know when you run deep in an MTT. Missed a lot of hanging out with friends and such because I had to stay home and grind to keep my Iron Man status on full tilt or my nova elite status on Pokerstars. I don't regret it but definitely one of those "if I knew then what I know now" kind of things. I would have invested a lot more of the bankroll in other things.

Now the argument can easily be made that theres just a massive difference in live poker and online poker. Online poker is, at its core, a slot machine. Its a random number generator. But you still have humans making decisions and you can influence those decisions so that argument doesn't hold a lot of water.

As far as sports betting..I parlay favorites and cross my fingers. Though last night I was goofing off and threw $10 on the Giants to win when they were down by 2 in the 7th at +625. They came back to win and I kicked myself for not betting more.
 

goldielox1

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FYI, I claimed 1.5-2% edge. Was very clear. What you are describing as hovering is called back counting. It is very hard to get away with for any period of time.

Also, if you were using a 10 count in a multi-deck game you had no edge. The 10 count system was Thorp's primitive first proven system to beat a single deck game.

This is why I hate seeing anything gambling related discussed outside of an academic setting. People wander off into misinterpretations, voodoo, confirmation bias due to variance, and all kinds of nonsense.
As I said, they are much more lenient with 6 deck shoes and popping in mid-shuffle, due to the fact that it's like 10-15 minutes between shuffle, based on my experience actually playing in big name casinos. And I never claimed one could do it over and over again (especially at the same table). If I were to do this, I'd do it maybe twice at one casino in a couple different areas, and then move to another casino. Rinse and repeat. I don't gamble much anymore but I was giving an example of one of the few ways one could get an advantage most of the time he was playing.

That is wrong. Any advantage that can be obtained in a single deck can be obtained in n-deck. It just occurs less frequently as n increases. You may want to study basic statistics: specifically sample size and probabilities.
 

BeefJerky

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What I will do is just post a link to a writeup about the 10 count.


Blackjack has been solved and written about for decades. Arguing with people and their nonsense is a waste of time. Not as much of a waste of time as playing a 10 count on an a multi-deck game though... :-)

Anyone interested in blackjack should just join up on blackjacktheforum and purchase Norm's CVBJ software.

I will now leave this topic alone.
 
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EO 11110

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I've been there a few times, seen a few sights that cured me of ever wanting to get in too deep on gambling.

I was at the roullete wheel just screwing around and having fun. Next to me is this guy, obviously a working man, but he's getting in deep. He's getting creamed and upping his bets on each spin, while griping to the attendant that the wheel keeps "floating" over his number. Now, that's typical degenerate gambler mentality, and this guy was every bit that - sweaty, bug-eyed and desperate, but damned if I didn't notice that the wheel did seem to be popping right over his number, it happened several times. Now, he starts getting enraged and a crowd starts forming. I expected a couple of bruisers to come over and give this guy VIP treatment, but they let him keep going. Finally, he ups his bet one last time and his number comes up, he manages to break even and leaves in a hurry, after gratefully tipping the attendant he had been griping at moments earlier. He survived that day, but I have no doubt where he eventually landed. I swore I would never be that guy.

Casinos are scary places to me. You can't handicap video poker and you can lose your life savings in a matter of hours. And, forget card counting, the shoe is enormous and re-shuffling is done often enough to render counting meaningless. I always wonder what happens in those rare instances where a bindlestiff with no knowledge just walks in and cleans up - do the casinos ban the guy just for great luck?
they have an answer for that guy -- that's why there are max bets at the wheel. that crushes his system
 

EO 11110

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sports betting is interesting --- since the bettors set the spread. one can make some money leaning against the wind -- the m(asses) are morons

we had a contest at work years ago -- about 25 guys, 20 bucks per week. picking against the nfl spread, all games, every week.

i won 6 times out of 16 games leaning against the wind. didnt know sh-t about the games - just bet against the hype. my competitors were studying stats/injuries/experts....lol
 

goldielox1

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sports betting is interesting --- since the bettors set the spread. one can make some money leaning against the wind -- the m(asses) are morons

we had a contest at work years ago -- about 25 guys, 20 bucks per week. picking against the nfl spread, all games, every week.

i won 6 times out of 16 games leaning against the wind. didnt know sh-t about the games - just bet against the hype. my competitors were studying stats/injuries/experts....lol
Not my cup of tea but my understanding is the small games are the ones you can get a better advantage on. e.g. Hang out at the practice field of you local D1 football team, and see who's hobbling around that week. Bet accordingly.
 

goldielox1

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What I will do is just post a link to a writeup about the 10 count.


Blackjack has been solved and written about for decades. Arguing with people and their nonsense is a waste of time. Not as much of a waste of time as playing a 10 count on an a multi-deck game though... :-)

Anyone interested in blackjack should just join up on blackjacktheforum and purchase Norm's CVBJ software.

I will now leave this topic alone.
Funny when someone posts an article that doesn't support his own argument. I read the article. It says nothing about your claim that one can not get an advantage in a six deck using this system. Lazy citer.
 

rte

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I went yesterday and had a decent meal.
gambled a bit, was up some but had a slightly bigger goal set for the get out amount.
was within 15% before giving it back.

It happens, can't always have the cake and eat it too.