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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)

oldgaranddad

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I doubt it.. How old are you ?? lol
Math and momentum are building
I just turned 55.

I've heard the math and momentum mantra before especially before the run up to 1700+. I'm still under water on some those buys.
 

axstone

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Like Rickard's said:

We’re off the bottom, but people are always most discouraged at the bottom, right?
Well, that's the time you should buy. It's just human nature. I'm not faulting anyone.
I'm not criticizing anyone, it's just human nature to say, "Oh man, I'm so beaten down.
I'm so sick of this. I'm so tired of this." Well, that's usually the time to buy and guess what, it is.

However Roy will be correct:



roy is right.JPG


1400 is Key

rally you never sell.JPG
 

JayDubya

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I know nobody can answer this, but what exactly does our world look like when that $700B of crypto wealth decides to seek shelter in precious metal? AND what does it look like shortly thereafter, say 6mos, 12 mos, 24 mos?
 

axstone

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I remember having a discussion with a friend when gold was trying to get over the 640 area, I was saying I was expecting gold to trade over 1,000 U.S
He said absolutely not, there would be tanks in he streets. 1,900 No tanks
 

axstone

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Japan is not on the chart?
Japanese demand for gold jewellery and investment gold bars and coins totalled 32.8 tonnes in 2015, comprising 16.2 tonnes of investment gold bar and coin demand, and 16.6 tonnes of gold jewellery demandhttp://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends">[49].

One unique bar product in Japan is the “Senryo-bako” (wooden container), where gold bars are sold in a traditionally inspired wooden box. Some example of modern-day Senryo-bakos can accommodate 10 kilobars.
 

axstone

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Louky,
I speak with a few of the Big Banks downtown Toronto, they say investment bar demand is big
FWIW
RBC.jpg
 

axstone

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Ray Dalio: Central banks will get so desperate they will give money away
Monetary Policy 1 lower interest rates
Monetary Policy 2 Quantitative easing
Monetary Policy 3 : Put FIAT money in the hand of spenders (we are not on a gold standard)
@4:27
 
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good watch, but at the 21.35 mark, he says he does not expect another 2008, he said that was mainly due to debt...well we got a nat debt that is more than doubled, mortgage and personal debt is the same as in 2008, so that has not gone down whatsoever, medicare payments have nearly doubled and ss went up 50%. He is right, it will not look like 2008, the next crash will make 2008 look like a hiccup.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
 
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forgot to mention the derivatives...I don't even know what to make of this...111T in unfunded liabilities...LOL. Plus, one reason we are still in a holding pattern is due to interest rates, we pay less today on 20t in debt than we did on 2 T debt in the 80's because of the low interest rates...look out, hang in there, a shitstorm is coming
Ray Dalio: Central banks will get so desperate they will give money away
Monetary Policy 1 lower interest rates
Monetary Policy 2 Quantitative easing
Monetary Policy 3 : Put FIAT money in the hand of spenders (we are not on a gold standard)
@4:27
good watch, but at the 21.35 mark, he says he does not expect another 2008, he said that was mainly due to debt...well we got a nat debt that is more than doubled, mortgage and personal debt is the same as in 2008, so that has not gone down whatsoever, medicare payments have nearly doubled and ss went up 50%. He is right, it will not look like 2008, the next crash will make 2008 look like a hiccup.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html
 

axstone

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forgot to mention the derivatives...I don't even know what to make of this...111T in unfunded liabilities...LOL. Plus, one reason we are still in a holding pattern is due to interest rates, we pay less today on 20t in debt than we did on 2 T debt in the 80's because of the low interest rates...look out, hang in there, a shitstorm is coming
HMM Karl, I am starting to think you are correct.. Monetary # 3 will not put enough money into the hands of people fast enough. I think you are right now. Helicopter money isn't fast enough
 

axstone

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Channel - I expect the channel to change in slope as the bull market advances over time

gold channel.JPG
 
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Strawboss

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Hey Ax - how the hell are ya? Hopefully well.

The magic number is $1380. That is when we know that a new bull market in the PMs has arrived.

We are close - but, we may still see a huge slam down before we see that price print...

$1380.
 

axstone

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Hey Ax - how the hell are ya? Hopefully well.

The magic number is $1380. That is when we know that a new bull market in the PMs has arrived.

We are close - but, we may still see a huge slam down before we see that price print...

$1380.
 

axstone

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Hey Strawboss. Good to see you. The daily action looks different . Just look at the silver 30 min chart today. They may be running out of ammo here
 

savvydon

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RSI is coming back down to earth... I reckon a bit of correction here will be healthy for POG.
 

axstone

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I noticed over 1320 the gold stocks were not buying into this rally
 

southfork

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And then the rains came and washed away all the crops, dam metals fall off a cliff and walk up a mountain
 

FunnyMoney

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So where the hell is the real bottom
The seriously real bottom is enough below the cost to produce it to get some mines to close. It is treated as a commodity. China has been preparing for the eventual reversal of that illusion by accumulating. When the illusion of fiat money begins to fall completely apart the bottom is going to be several , maybe many times higher than the production cost.

Investors are planning for that already so I believe traders start buying around 1300. 1250 must be considered very strong support. I'm not expecting we go all the way back to 1237 as I called last time. 1270 is a number to look at. Let's see how the stock markets shake out next week and what the dollar does. Those can disrupt the price targets a lot.
 
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savvydon

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So where the hell is the real bottom
No clue. But I can tell you that the beatdowns these days feel more desperate and less effective than, say, the savaging from 2013 to 2015. Back then there seemed to be a lot of fear that the bottom could be virtually anywhere. These days I would say that the only chance we have of seeing the 2015 low is if there is an across the board collapse like in 2008-2009. Otherwise these successively higher lows are looking more like buying opps to me. 2c
 

axstone

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Here is the fight
1400 is bad news for the U.S dollar, one way to get a boost in the dollar is to pull the plug on equities to get a bounce

Who knows anymore, its all a fantasy,

Good luck to them.

pulling the plug.png