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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)

bemac

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You know, I love it when the "fair weather sailors" show up... LOL.

That is just not possible on any planet!

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction regardless of the force driving that action. Every dollar that didn't "go for gold" went elsewhere so any reversal of fortune, for whatever reason, will have an equal and opposite impact on other asset classes.
No, because there's essentially an ever-expanding amount of dollars, and demand for them, entering the economy.

BUT, as stated in my previous post, there would be an astronomical economic difference between $20K btc versus $10k gold.
 

Zed

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No, because there's essentially an ever-expanding amount of dollars, and demand for them, entering the economy.

BUT, as stated in my previous post, there would be an astronomical economic difference between $20K btc versus $10k gold.
... but the additional supply is a marginal element in comparison to the existing amount sloshing around the system AND a new asset (ie. a bond) is created every time new US dollars are added to the system.
 

Zed

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Well, keep in kind, there are only about 17.8 million bitcoins in existence at the moment, and at $20K a pop, we're talking about a total of $356 billion. If all above ground gold went to $10k toz, we're talking about $61 trillion worth of gold (about 170 times bigger than $20k btc).
It has all gotta come out some hole or other! New money supply will not achieve anywhere near that sort of price pressure. + add to that that any credit crunch will be reducing the nominal money supply and at a faster rate than new supply can supplant. This will result in movement in other asset classes, it cannot happen in a vacuum.
 

bemac

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... but the additional supply is a marginal element in comparison to the existing amount sloshing around the system AND a new asset (ie. a bond) is created every time new US dollars are added to the system.
You know, I read way too much into what you originally posted. You are correct in what you said.
 

Zed

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You know, I read way too much into what you originally posted. You are correct in what you said.
Thanks.

For the life of me, I just can't see an isolated gold spike happening ever... or any other asset class for that matter.
 

Strawboss

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Thanks.

For the life of me, I just can't see an isolated gold spike happening ever... or any other asset class for that matter.
I "think" I agree with you on this...logic, facts, etc...all support what you are saying...

Here is the "potential" fly in the ointment...

Lets say that some Sunday night the Fed says they will be a buyer of gold at $10K, or $20K or whatever...

In practical terms...they wouldnt have to buy much gold at that price...perhaps a modest amount to show the market they are serious. But the practical outcome is that everyone...and I mean everyone...would reprice their gold to the new number...

And that would reset the gold price at the higher number...of course creating winners and losers in the process...but without having to suck money out of some other asset class to effectuate that repricing of gold...

So - in my scenario...if it were to ever happen...the only wrench in the machine I can think of are those poor souls that are on the short end of any outstanding gold contracts on the Friday prior...which of course the Fed could give the banks ample time to close out their short positions to protect themselves...

Perhaps its a pipe dream of mine? Possibly...but the more I play this scenario in my mind...the more I ask myself...why couldnt they?

A reset gold price solves so many problems it seems inevitable that it will happen at some point...
 

Zed

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Lets say that some Sunday night the Fed says they will be a buyer of gold at $10K, or $20K or whatever...
Just never gonna happen... they will burn the currency first. Nothing about that plays to their position, it plays to Chinas... so never gonna happen. Goldbugs wet dream.

Gold will rise, yes... but reset... I doubt it, and if it does you will not like the world very much no matter how much gold you have.
 

axstone

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Its now!

I suspect we will see Gold go parabolic even on a logarithmic scale

gold log.JPG
 
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Zed: "I think we may be running low on suckers. "

GIM might want to put that quote on a t-shirt.

Ahhhh ....................the convo here, it's just like the "old" days of 400-600 gold. Just like after 9/11, it feels like this market is worth paying attention to again, based on macro and geopolitics. Love to all, even Zed but to Ax the max.
 

Strawboss

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Zed: "I think we may be running low on suckers. "

GIM might want to put that quote on a t-shirt.

Ahhhh ....................the convo here, it's just like the "old" days of 400-600 gold. Just like after 9/11, it feels like this market is worth paying attention to again, based on macro and geopolitics. Love to all, even Zed but to Ax the max.
Every bull market needs its cheerleaders. Ax is as good as any of them. He follows different "grizzled veterans"...Sinclair chief among them...and I really dont have anything bad to say about Sinclair. He has taught me a tremendous amount over the years. And he did it for free...

Zed is top shelf too...as is louky and others as well. I like Zed's realism. I see him as a good counterbalance to Ax's exuberance. For example - if you look at Ax's chart above with the gold going parabolic by 2025...you will notice that where he positioned it is a bit too far to the right. That would be closer to 2035 or so in actuality on that chart. A small detail - but the curve of his drawn graph would look remarkably different if it was corrected. Not that its a big deal - I understand the point Ax is making...now whether it will materialize or not...who knows...

Above all else - I like louky's style the best. Simple. Direct. No BS. No frills. Here are the numbers...no charts needed.

How freaking simple can it get? And the guy just produces. Price keeps doing shit almost precisely (yeah louky - those cents matter) off his numbers...which he has been babbling about for years...

Pretty freaking cool...
 
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axstone

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Hey Straw
Good comments, its true i am just trying to estimate and draw to have a visual of what a 5th or this next impulse wave will look like, trying to ballpark it really, we all know the last wave gets nutty
 

Strawboss

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Hey Straw
Good comments, its true i am just trying to estimate and draw to have a visual of what a 5th or this next impulse wave will look like, trying to ballpark it really, we all know the last wave gets nutty
Is Armstrong still at 5000 in his gold price projection as the max upside? I havent really followed him lately and am curious if its still that or he has adjusted it.
 

Zed

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... but grasshopper, that is a quote from a historic figure. Although he maybe historically correct in itself it is neither reason or evidence.

Dont call me grasshpper

and for your reason and evidence.....

View attachment 134390
 

Zed

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and as far as Crypto, dont even bother
THIS SITE IS GOLD IS MONEY
GOLD IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE MONEY
crypto will only be a medium of exchange
A medium of exchange must by definition store value and then by default it becomes money. Really you are discussing the relative quality and merit of crypto as money. That is a case by case thing, we have private gold backed crypto and we look like getting government issued gold back crypto at some point. It is hard to argue that in a networked world we wouldn't be better off cutting out the financial middle men and using a digital currency of some sort. I think we will go in a new direction here and I think, at least for a while, gold will play a confidence inspiring role. Much like it did in establishing the USD as the global reserve currency.

JMO etc...
 

Zed

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Is Armstrong still at 5000 in his gold price projection as the max upside? I havent really followed him lately and am curious if its still that or he has adjusted it.
My work from years ago estimated $5400 top on this move. Is it the last move up? ... I dunno, we will have to wait and see. I recently looked @ the multiples from the low to the 1920 high and used the same multiple from the low of this correction. That came out in the 8K range, also a popular target from a decade ago.

Frankly 50K screams total loss of control and I think we'd see drastic action taken before that point... but who knows for sure?
 

Zed

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Zed

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Hey Straw
Good comments, its true i am just trying to estimate and draw to have a visual of what a 5th or this next impulse wave will look like, trying to ballpark it really, we all know the last wave gets nutty
The 5th wave implies the last wave up... maybe, I guess and maybe it is made up of 5 waves itself. Fractals within fractals, IMO it makes Elliot difficult to use real time. It is a black art... JMO.
 

Zed

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Gold is just not slowing down.
It is not impossible that we have a runaway market on our hands. That is just never the prudent assumption. Hey what do I care, I'm making $$$!
 

Zed

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Looks like it made it to keeps.
Yes, we have to close out the day up here and hold that. 1433 was my high line (see chart in Looney Fringe), if we close the day over that then I have to reconsider.
 

Zed

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A note on sentiment.

Some of you guys might remember the days when I, and some others, would suggest that a price retracement or correction was due and we would be attacked by a whole tribe of rabid bulls. We'd get accused of all sorts of nonsense and have all manner of 'fundamental' 'facts' thrown at us.

All it took to bring this on was suggesting as little as a $20 correction.

Fast forward to today. I, and others, have been suggesting a $50 to $80 correction, from the recent peak, back to the mid 13s and not one attack! More than that I see general agreement that this is a possibility that should be allowed for.

This is a critical evolution in the psychology of this market, the smaller players have matured some what and the weaker hands are long gone. IRONICALLY this lowers the odds that the correction will be as deep as it might otherwise be.

My 2c worth for the day!

WOOHOOOOOOO, +1400 close on the month.... now we can see where the floor is in the 13's.
 

Ebie

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I suspect that we may get wilder "swings" but, a general trend upward. That is sort of the flag pattern theory--I think.
 

savvydon

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A note on sentiment.

Some of you guys might remember the days when I, and some others, would suggest that a price retracement or correction was due and we would be attacked by a whole tribe of rabid bulls. We'd get accused of all sorts of nonsense and have all manner of 'fundamental' 'facts' thrown at us.

All it took to bring this on was suggesting as little as a $20 correction.

Fast forward to today. I, and others, have been suggesting a $50 to $80 correction, from the recent peak, back to the mid 13s and not one attack! More than that I see general agreement that this is a possibility that should be allowed for.

This is a critical evolution in the psychology of this market, the smaller players have matured some what and the weaker hands are long gone. IRONICALLY this lowers the odds that the correction will be as deep as it might otherwise be.

My 2c worth for the day!

WOOHOOOOOOO, +1400 close on the month.... now we can see where the floor is in the 13's.
Not only do I accept pullbacks are a market reality these days, I try to bank on it a bit. Toe in the water short term GDX put options are not only an acknowledgment that we are going to mud wrestle our way through this, they are an attempt to derive a little profit while it is happening.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in on the PM bull at this point. Still, it is healthy to recognize that life, and markets, are not one way streets.
 

Strawboss

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Not only do I accept pullbacks are a market reality these days, I try to bank on it a bit. Toe in the water short term GDX put options are not only an acknowledgment that we are going to mud wrestle our way through this, they are an attempt to derive a little profit while it is happening.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in on the PM bull at this point. Still, it is healthy to recognize that life, and markets, are not one way streets.
Spoken like a true grizzled veteran of the gold wars...
 

Zed

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Not only do I accept pullbacks are a market reality these days, I try to bank on it a bit.
Exactly my message of 10+ years ago! It was heresy around these parts.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all in on the PM bull at this point. Still, it is healthy to recognize that life, and markets, are not one way streets.
You sound like I did! You'd have been shot for that!!!!!
 

savvydon

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Exactly my message of 10+ years ago! It was heresy around these parts.



You sound like I did! You'd have been shot for that!!!!!
Wow. I was pretty green around the gills back then. When I first got on here I didn't have a full grasp of how the mechanical parts fit together (still don't, but maybe I've gone from caveman to the middle ages, anyway...). I never really did understand what all the factions and fighting were about. It is good to have different points of view, but if all you have is cheerleaders there is no one around to play the game. You might have plenty of eye candy, but the whole affair would get pretty dull pretty quick, I would think.
 

Strawboss

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There are only a relative few of us oldtimers still around after all these years...

How fucked up is it that "we" are the authortative source on all things gold/silver?

"We".

Have you taken a look at this motley crew?

Navy Seal training aint got shit on what we all have been through with this...
 

Zed

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How fucked up is it that "we" are the authortative source on all things gold/silver?
Pro traders are as almost as motley as us... they just have bigger accounts. The emperor really has no clothes.

JMO.
 

Strawboss

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Pro traders are as almost as motley as us... they just have bigger accounts. The emperor really has no clothes.

JMO.
I would wager that we could do a better job at a big firm than their current "traders"...assuming we were given the same information as they have access to...our knowledge and experience is invaluable.

But...none of us do that. Because we have morals. And values that we cherish. We choose to live as independent men who willingly choose to NOT make their living off the broken backs of other people.
 

Zed

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I would wager that we could do a better job at a big firm than their current "traders"...assuming we were given the same information as they have access to...our knowledge and experience is invaluable.

But...none of us do that. Because we have morals. And values that we cherish. We choose to live as independent men who willingly choose to NOT make their living off the broken backs of other people.
Oh yes, given the right tools and the removal of any morality I could become a true pirate, mebe even viking!

 

Strawboss

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Where in the hell do you come up with this shit so fast?
 

Goldhedge

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axstone

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Jim says 3500 and 50,000 by 2025
plot the dots and then connect them with movements.. only a few possible scenarios other than an overnight reset which he did suggest
2025.JPG