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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)

ACE

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#41
Hi axe, zed & aussie - good to see some old faces back here...

One thing I think we can be certain of... we will never see spot gold price around $1325 - $1330 ever again - the bottom is in!




Ace
 

Zed

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#42
Hi axe, zed & aussie - good to see some old faces back here...

One thing I think we can be certain of... we will never see spot gold price around $1325 - $1330 ever again - the bottom is in!




Ace
Hi Ace!

Sorry, I am not feeling that certain yet! I still have a few issues with the setup, I think we are close but not done. 2c

You may be right, but I am not buying it just yet!

Either way it will not mean much in a month or three :cheerful:
 

Zed

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#46
Ax, is your final wave (5) part of major wave 3 or 5?
I would guess 3 based on where I think we are but the word FINAL suggests 5.
 

Strawboss

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#47
Yeah, I have been confused myself. I used to think that we were just beginning wave 3 of MAJOR THREE, but, the correction of the past 2 years seems like a wave 4 correction.

I am no expert on Elliott Waves though. Would be interested in hearing what others more knowledgeable about them think.
 

krugger3

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#48
I don't put much faith in EW or most of the Tech indicators. This market is being completely controlled IMO. The metals will move when it is most advantageous to the Bankers, with the Gov and Fed full support. Gentlemen we are living in a corrupt monetary system. I do watch the COT #'s as I think they are a forward indicator of thinks to come , but the timing is tough to gauge.

On a side note: Nice to see the Ax man and Zed on board. Someone has to keep the G man under control. :cheerful: Zed I hope all is well, you truly are an asset to the forum.
 
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#49
I don't put much faith in EW or most of the Tech indicators. This market is being completely controlled IMO. The metals will move when it is most advantageous to the Bankers, with the Gov and Fed full support. Gentlemen we are living in a corrupt monetary system. I do watch the COT #'s as I think they are a forward indicator of thinks to come , but the timing is tough to gauge.

On a side note: Nice to see the Ax man and Zed on board. Someone has to keep the G man under control. :cheerful: Zed I hope all is well, you truly are an asset to the forum.
Control?
Bwahahahaha!!!

Ya wanna count waves? Go to the beach. :cheerful:
 

krugger3

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#50
I lost the ability to count. I use to count stacks of 100, but now, I only have 3 to count :afraid:. TDM :D
 

savvydon

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#51
I know just enough about EW wave theory to bring trouble upon myself, but I believe the theory is that it reflects mass human psychology. Therefore, even in a manipulated market it should apply. The people who manipulate do not do so in a vacuum. They are only able to do so within the framework of the mass psychology of greed and fear. The manipulators are nothing without the manipulated.

Having said all that mumbo jumbo my (very limited) experience thus far has led me to the conclusion that one can 'see' into the wave count what one wants to see, not unlike picking out imaginary shapes from passing clouds. At the end of the day, (especially after baking out in the sun for a while) it is not clear to me how much it differs from counting waves at the beach... pass me the suntan lotion :p
 

Zed

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#52
Hi Krugger!

I don't put much faith in EW or most of the Tech indicators.
People who understand it correctly and practice well are few and far between, it works quite well in the right hands. I know one guy in Oz that is what I call good. So yeah, for the most part EW work found on the web should rightly be treated with the utmost caution. ---> JMO.

That said the wider the time frame the easier it is to get right.


This market is being completely controlled IMO.
I don't think that the ability to control is actually as great as many people think. It is my belief that the market is pushed around short term at opportune moments, as are most markets. Gold and silver a thin markets so the effects can be greater. Ultimately I think that the price will and does get to where it needs to be but in the short term they cause the occasional "fire sale" every so often, if you are a fundamental bull what is not to like about that?

Frankly it is more productive to embrace the opportunity than to let what you can't change beat you up mentally.

The bull market will win out, in the end.

Cheers
Z
 

axstone

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#53
I know just enough about EW wave theory to bring trouble upon myself, but I believe the theory is that it reflects mass human psychology. Therefore, even in a manipulated market it should apply. The people who manipulate do not do so in a vacuum. They are only able to do so within the framework of the mass psychology of greed and fear. The manipulators are nothing without the manipulated.

Having said all that mumbo jumbo my (very limited) experience thus far has led me to the conclusion that one can 'see' into the wave count what one wants to see, not unlike picking out imaginary shapes from passing clouds. At the end of the day, (especially after baking out in the sun for a while) it is not clear to me how much it differs from counting waves at the beach... pass me the suntan lotion :p
I agree. EW used on long term trends includes manipulation. I believe this is the final wave which will end restoring some form of gold backing currency to retain some degree of confidence back to the real definition of money. Ie store of wealth AND medium of exchange. I am thinking 3 - 5 years for maximum price discovery
 

axstone

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#54
Zed. I agree manipulating markets generally only changes time objective for accurate price discovery. However. Damage and mal investment can be done. Manipulation of short term interest rates is a perfect example. It has forced the general public to become speculators and by economic law that is a train wreck waiting to happen
 

Zed

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#55
Zed. I agree manipulating markets generally only changes time objective for accurate price discovery. However. Damage and mal investment can be done. Manipulation of short term interest rates is a perfect example. It has forced the general public to become speculators and by economic law that is a train wreck waiting to happen
Yes well, as we physically get closer to the heart of the central banking system, in terms of market, the less with have a free market of economically motivated participants and the more we have a market of politically motivated participants. That absolutely mis-allocates capital, although I am sure they see it as directing capital. Politicians and control freaks cannot seem to accept that the ecosystem that is a free market economy will deliver the best outcome despite the apparent chaos, despite the fact that they can't see what the outcome will be.

...that said, we do have a tendency to vote for people that promise to protect us from lifes harsh realties. Maybe if we fix the issue on a mirco level and face up to what needs doing in our own lives, maybe then we build a culture that will sustain responsibility on a macro level. At the end of the day this system is reflective of "us", our understanding, commitment and involvement. That can only be changed one person at a time.

2c

:cheerful:
 
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savvydon

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#56
Yes well, as we physically get closer to the heart of the central banking system, in terms of market, the less with have a free market of economically motivated participants and the more we have a market of politically motivated participants. That absolutely mis-allocates capital, although I am sure they see it as directing capital. Politicians and control freaks cannot seem to accept that the ecosystem that is a free market economy will deliver the best outcome despite the apparent chaos, despite the fact that they can see what the outcome will be.

...that said, we do have a tendency to vote for people that promise to protect us from lifes harsh realties. Maybe if we fix the issue on a mirco level and face up to what needs doing in our own lives, maybe then we build a culture that will sustain responsibility on a macro level. At the end of the day this system is reflective of "us", our understanding, commitment and involvement. That can only be change one person at a time.

2c

:cheerful:
 
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Eat Beef

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#57
Savvy, if ever a post deserved a "no thanks"...:biggrin:
 

Zed

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#59
A certain irony in that one! eh? :cheerful:

OK.... I have taken my inner idealist out back and shot him!

Now back to trading skulldugery and piracy!

Bills need payin!

:bear_laugh:
 
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d-lod

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#62
Re: Hey Ax!

Ah Yes! Those were the good ol' days. The Ax made fun of me for saying I'd load back up on gold at $750. He thought $1000 would hold forever.

Bwahahaha!!!!


It actually fell back below $750. ;)
This time he has grown a bit now his up arrows have little downward dents.
 

00nightstorm

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#64
Oh brother, the axstone french curves are back. Somebody pull up some of the old ones from 2006 so we can compare!
 

Ebie

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#65
Only a few long opportunities, watching downtrend line closely now
we are close to marginal cost of production.
[]
The cost of "production" of Germany's 300 tons from vault to market was very low.
 

Zed

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#66
Only a few long opportunities, watching downtrend line closely now
we are close to marginal cost of production.
View attachment 51271
That chart doesn't make sense! Have you any idea how much you can make on a $5 to $20 move using futures? That chart is full of opportunity from both sides.

2c

Z
 

axstone

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#67
That chart doesn't make sense! Have you any idea how much you can make on a $5 to $20 move using futures? That chart is full of opportunity from both sides.

2c

Z
all depends on your trading time frame and use of leverage. its ll relative.

the trend is clearly down was the point of the chart. I believe that will change when the downtrend line is broken
 

Zed

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#69
all depends on your trading time frame and use of leverage. its ll relative.

the trend is clearly down was the point of the chart. I believe that will change when the downtrend line is broken
Yes it is all relative but your comments are absolute.... see my point?
 

Weatherman

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#70

axstone

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#71
Zed, You are clearly a hot shot futures trader,

my point with the chart is anyone who had a dollar cost average method or bought gold on weakness with the intention to hold for higher prices in the last year have a losing position. there is no long momentum, very little to cheer about on a daily chart basis.

See my point??
 

Zed

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#73
Zed, You are clearly a hot shot futures trader,
I am?

my point with the chart is anyone who had a dollar cost average method or bought gold on weakness with the intention to hold for higher prices in the last year have a losing position. there is no long momentum, very little to cheer about on a daily chart basis.
Then perhaps you should have said that.

Now... yes.



... but this has not been without opportunity, even if you don't use futures.