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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)
- Thread starter axstone
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Now that is a more realistic target for this leg up. IF we ever go to 50/80K that comes later IMO.
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As always time will tell...
Thats what makes a market - different views/conclusions, etc...
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I don't know much about charts or technical analysis. Can you please explain what a saucer bottom means?
Thanks in advance!
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It is a pattern that should (except for gold 
) show very strong support, like a double or triple bottom
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/saucer.asp
) show very strong support, like a double or triple bottomhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/saucer.asp
Yeah, but.... if the naked shorts defend in earnest prior to the huge delivery month of December, as you expect they will, we have the prospect of up to two soft months. Not a given but a strong possibility. Given that we could see a long lower tail down into the 1800's possibly lower 1800's. Hopefully and logically it should be short and sharp but expect a good gut check soon!
This might raise its ugly head.
Old school friend of mine works for a well known electronics manufacturer here on Long Island, NY, that does lots of sub contracts for military suppliers is having issues with finding silver for production. He jokes about going to coin shows (as if there are any) to buy silver eagles just to keep the production lines going. That would be several monster boxes a day.
Then again, he had at least three scotches in him when this was said.
Until December that has zero relevance on the Comex. OI is big for December and you can expect them to defend their positions, they do it most every time, for the last five years the next two months have tended to be down to soft for the same reason ONLY there are more $on the table now. I don't think we can expect physical delivery pressure to move them until late November.
... they may just turn and run, one big player might break ranks etc. It would be a change in behavior though... so betting on it would not be prudent.
Sure... I expect big pressure, but not until late November, until then, it ***should*** be OK. There is the possibility that November is a big enough straw to break the camels back but OI isn't massive there. This month is nothing.
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I wonder how many of those new "approved vendors" will be using tungsten cores...
We ALL know that gold is gonna go up. That isnt even remotely the question. We all see the demand...the supply issues...the fundamental drivers that propel gold higher...
What is at issue is the timing...and whether or not we will see a "normal correction" as has always happened in the past...or whether this time is different...and gold acts in a way out of character from past behavior.
Lots of very knowledgeable and well meaning people on various sides of this particular point. Some think we are gonna blast off imminently. Some think its gonna take a bit of time to bleed off the exuberance. Some think the bullion banks have more tricks up their sleeves. Some think .gov of the Fed is suppressing prices and will continue to do so...
Funny thing is - all the arguments both pro and con have good rational arguments to support their position. After you analyze all of them - you need a drink (or a few)...
So...I rely on the technical charts to provide me guidance...and the charts for gold say that on a monthly and weekly basis - its overbought and substantially extended and needs time to digest the move we have seen since the March lows. It has been trying to correct for over a month - and it has to some extent. Not like we are accustomed to seeing in years past - where price gets hammered and the rebounds are minimal. Now when they slam price - there is a strong challenge and price rebounds. That is strong evidence that there is very strong buying support.
in the major miners and the royalty companies - stock is being accumulated even though price is falling modestly as people sell...
I am 2/3 invested in LEAP options on miners and am looking to deploy my final 1/3 position if we get the decline I am expecting...to the lower $1800s area...perhaps by late September...although it might take more time than that to bleed off the exuberance on the weekly/monthly charts...
Alternatively - the next quarters earnings reports are gonna be out by around mid-November...and those are gonna be spectacular for the miners...so I fully expect accumulation in the shares to continue apace - and actually build up steam. This makes me think the miners will bottom before gold - and actually lead gold higher...
So - if someone was to suggest that the miners might bottom this month - but that gold would bottom in late October or early November...I wouldnt have much of an issue with that prognosis.
Make no mistake - pension funds are gonna focus in on the PM space because of the earnings growth...its undeniable and unavoidable. And collectively - pension funds are big enough to shoot the PM sector to the moon...
And then there is the institutional money, the sovereign wealth funds, managed money and the high net worth individuals....
So - there is plenty of rocket fuel yet to be ignited...
But its coming...
We ALL know that gold is gonna go up. That isnt even remotely the question. We all see the demand...the supply issues...the fundamental drivers that propel gold higher...
What is at issue is the timing...and whether or not we will see a "normal correction" as has always happened in the past...or whether this time is different...and gold acts in a way out of character from past behavior.
Lots of very knowledgeable and well meaning people on various sides of this particular point. Some think we are gonna blast off imminently. Some think its gonna take a bit of time to bleed off the exuberance. Some think the bullion banks have more tricks up their sleeves. Some think .gov of the Fed is suppressing prices and will continue to do so...
Funny thing is - all the arguments both pro and con have good rational arguments to support their position. After you analyze all of them - you need a drink (or a few)...
So...I rely on the technical charts to provide me guidance...and the charts for gold say that on a monthly and weekly basis - its overbought and substantially extended and needs time to digest the move we have seen since the March lows. It has been trying to correct for over a month - and it has to some extent. Not like we are accustomed to seeing in years past - where price gets hammered and the rebounds are minimal. Now when they slam price - there is a strong challenge and price rebounds. That is strong evidence that there is very strong buying support.
in the major miners and the royalty companies - stock is being accumulated even though price is falling modestly as people sell...
I am 2/3 invested in LEAP options on miners and am looking to deploy my final 1/3 position if we get the decline I am expecting...to the lower $1800s area...perhaps by late September...although it might take more time than that to bleed off the exuberance on the weekly/monthly charts...
Alternatively - the next quarters earnings reports are gonna be out by around mid-November...and those are gonna be spectacular for the miners...so I fully expect accumulation in the shares to continue apace - and actually build up steam. This makes me think the miners will bottom before gold - and actually lead gold higher...
So - if someone was to suggest that the miners might bottom this month - but that gold would bottom in late October or early November...I wouldnt have much of an issue with that prognosis.
Make no mistake - pension funds are gonna focus in on the PM space because of the earnings growth...its undeniable and unavoidable. And collectively - pension funds are big enough to shoot the PM sector to the moon...
And then there is the institutional money, the sovereign wealth funds, managed money and the high net worth individuals....
So - there is plenty of rocket fuel yet to be ignited...
But its coming...
Now wouldn't that be a fun news story!