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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)

Zed

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Like I said..

Lets see how that works for them this time
Sure... I expect big pressure, but not until late November, until then, it ***should*** be OK. There is the possibility that November is a big enough straw to break the camels back but OI isn't massive there. This month is nothing.
 

Strawboss

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I wonder how many of those new "approved vendors" will be using tungsten cores...

We ALL know that gold is gonna go up. That isnt even remotely the question. We all see the demand...the supply issues...the fundamental drivers that propel gold higher...

What is at issue is the timing...and whether or not we will see a "normal correction" as has always happened in the past...or whether this time is different...and gold acts in a way out of character from past behavior.

Lots of very knowledgeable and well meaning people on various sides of this particular point. Some think we are gonna blast off imminently. Some think its gonna take a bit of time to bleed off the exuberance. Some think the bullion banks have more tricks up their sleeves. Some think .gov of the Fed is suppressing prices and will continue to do so...

Funny thing is - all the arguments both pro and con have good rational arguments to support their position. After you analyze all of them - you need a drink (or a few)...

So...I rely on the technical charts to provide me guidance...and the charts for gold say that on a monthly and weekly basis - its overbought and substantially extended and needs time to digest the move we have seen since the March lows. It has been trying to correct for over a month - and it has to some extent. Not like we are accustomed to seeing in years past - where price gets hammered and the rebounds are minimal. Now when they slam price - there is a strong challenge and price rebounds. That is strong evidence that there is very strong buying support.

in the major miners and the royalty companies - stock is being accumulated even though price is falling modestly as people sell...

I am 2/3 invested in LEAP options on miners and am looking to deploy my final 1/3 position if we get the decline I am expecting...to the lower $1800s area...perhaps by late September...although it might take more time than that to bleed off the exuberance on the weekly/monthly charts...

Alternatively - the next quarters earnings reports are gonna be out by around mid-November...and those are gonna be spectacular for the miners...so I fully expect accumulation in the shares to continue apace - and actually build up steam. This makes me think the miners will bottom before gold - and actually lead gold higher...

So - if someone was to suggest that the miners might bottom this month - but that gold would bottom in late October or early November...I wouldnt have much of an issue with that prognosis.

Make no mistake - pension funds are gonna focus in on the PM space because of the earnings growth...its undeniable and unavoidable. And collectively - pension funds are big enough to shoot the PM sector to the moon...

And then there is the institutional money, the sovereign wealth funds, managed money and the high net worth individuals....

So - there is plenty of rocket fuel yet to be ignited...

But its coming...
 

Zed

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axstone

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Corrections at different stages.
Gold has taken out its old high and has come back to retest the break out


corrections.png
 

savvydon

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I see a lot of signs and talking points pointing in the direction of a 6-8 week rest/correction in the PMs. Of course that could indicate that that will not happen. Still, if it plays out this way, as many are arguing, this brings us roughly to election day in the US. Lots of potential political fireworks on top of the technicals and fundamentals in the PM sector. I think it is possible that this is setting up to be enough a correction/pause/shake out so that the weak, non believer trend followers will leave the sector. That will leave the smart money and us tin foil hats left to be strapped in for the blast off that we all know is coming... 2c
 

Lancers32

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I don't know where the metals will bottom or if they haven't already. Nobody does and if they tell you that they are lying. Might be the case though that we have seen or are very close to the bottom in the major mining stocks. They didn't really do all that much on the upside on that last little blow off to the highs so there might not be all that much of a correction

Seems like the consensus is $1800 Gold Silver $22 downside or thereabouts. I think we either have bottomed or are going to test $1670 Gold but the consensus is rarely correct.
 

Zed

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The miner's being firmer here would be a very good sign.
 

axstone

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I liked Fridays action in the shares, lots of false breakouts and break downs, but Friday on the 4 hour chart shows a lot more strength in the GDX than the daily FWIW
gdx.PNG
 

axstone

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JUST SCRATCHING SOME THOUGHTS DOWN
I find it a tough sell that GOLD is worth less in any FIAT going forward on a month over month basis
this gives me a Trend obedient GOLD price in CDN year end touches 3,000 CDN FIAT DOLLARS
approximately 2,300 USD.. MIN

GOLD CDN.PNG
 

axstone

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How insane, the DJIA was up almost 10% in the past year even with Covid at the start of September.
Screenshot_20200921-230232_WhatsApp.jpg
 

Zed

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Zed

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How insane, the DJIA was up almost 10% in the past year even with Covid at the start of September.
View attachment 181444
While true the S&P and Nasdaq have had a very narrow advance, it has all been in 5 to 10 companies and the rest are sucking wind. I've not checked the DJI but you may find it is the same.
 

Zed

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Hey!

Somebody stole the beach ball!

I noticed that Mr Oliver thinks Biden has this election won!

Well thats gold bullish.
 

axstone

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Mr Oliver said commodities will spring like a beachball out of water
who am I to argue :D


beach_ball.jpg


bloomberg industrial.PNG
 
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Strawboss

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Zed

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I remember back in like 2006 where you made the same prediction and it was proven right...a pretty sizeable rally followed...
It would appear to be close.
 

Zed

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Metals, including paper prices will rise around Nov 2020.
I said this 4 months ago.
We will soon see if I was correct.
The gold chart looks like election day is about the turn.
 

Zed

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Two points isn't, from a technical perspective, a trend. Three is... maybe these are the lines that count.

Untitled.jpg
 

Goldhedge

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I wanna know when...
 

Zed

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It's not a bad start the real tell will be if we can build on it through the comex session. Then if we hold the break into the end of the week we're looking good.
 

Zed

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That is what would get my attention.
IMO it should begin to happen once we have broken the old high in convincing fashion.