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AXSTONE'S FINAL WAVE (5)

axstone

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#81
This is my bull case scenario. Breaking the trendline here is what I expect as a bear trap (taking out stops)
No I don't expect so unless we have a black swan event

gold sep 11.jpg
 

axstone

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#85
Charles Nenner: War, 2014 Dollar Collapse, Gold Could Go Parabolic and More

 
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Silver Buck

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#86
I figured your concern would be how far will gold carry silver on this trip
Not even. I'm very bearish on Silver regardless of what Gold does. I see no fundamental reason for Silver to do anything but track sideways (at best) for quite some time to come (years, perhaps a decade at the least).
 

savvydon

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#87
We need a move to 1400 by first quarter next year to confirm wave 5
My one concern about your wave labeling is how disproportionately long, from a time standpoint, wave four is compared to wave two. An alternative count could be:

screenshot_106.jpg

which would have us waiting for this current wave two correction of the wave one bull market run up from 1999-2011 to finish prior to the coming bull market wave three.

2c
 
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#88
Not even. I'm very bearish on Silver regardless of what Gold does. I see no fundamental reason for Silver to do anything but track sideways (at best) for quite some time to come (years, perhaps a decade at the least).
The G/S ratio has really remained flat around 65-1 for a while. Might go to 100-1 before this is over. The failure of Silver to make new all time highs in 2011 while Gold did in spades does not bode well for the Silver Dream. Keep buying all the way down. LOL.
 

JayDubya

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#89
From Silver Buck:
"Not even. I'm very bearish on Silver regardless of what Gold does. I see no fundamental reason for Silver to do anything but track sideways (at best) for quite some time to come (years, perhaps a decade at the least."

Silver Buck, I'm at work and for some reason cannot reply with quote using this computer. Anyway, I stand corrected. For some reason, I thought you were heavy into silver instead of gold.

My apologies if I offended.
 

Silver Buck

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#90
For some reason, I thought you were heavy into silver instead of gold.

My apologies if I offended.
No offense taken.

I used to be bullish on Silver, but it lost its shine after the great sell-off. And after much study of Silver these past 4 years I'm bearish on Silver near term. If someone is looking to diversify their holdings and preserve some physical wealth, sure, Silver is affordable. But if anyone is looking for a quick profit, this isn't the slag they want.
 

axstone

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#91
My one concern about your wave labeling is how disproportionately long, from a time standpoint, wave four is compared to wave two. An alternative count could be:



which would have us waiting for this current wave two correction of the wave one bull market run up from 1999-2011 to finish prior to the coming bull market wave three.

2c
The problem I see with yours is you have wave 1 in blue but a lower low on 2 which makes no sense to me

wave correctiion.jpg
 

axstone

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#92
No offense taken.

I used to be bullish on Silver, but it lost its shine after the great sell-off. And after much study of Silver these past 4 years I'm bearish on Silver near term. If someone is looking to diversify their holdings and preserve some physical wealth, sure, Silver is affordable. But if anyone is looking for a quick profit, this isn't the slag they want.
I think it depends on the dollar breaking late this year , as the dollar breaks below 75 on the USDX , I would expect gold would quickly move to new highs
As gold rises I believe the ratio will move lower not higher, at the 2500 gold level I think GSR would move to 40:1 that would be 62.50 Silver (Just my thoughts if Charles Nenner's wave analysis is correct)
clip0014.jpg
 
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#95
True story Ax, A few years ago I happened to meet Nadler in a bar during PDAC. We talked gently for a few hours. Without making my opinions known or disclosing any position, he quietly advised me, personally, to sell half my position (which was around 1850) then play with currencies and wait for 1200. The colleagues he was traveling with thought his advice was nuts. Of course I did not listen but it makes me wonder...
 

axstone

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#96
Magnum.. I believe it 1800 was showing major technical over sold reading and he is a very technical guy,, I sold a few shares because i was disapointed they werent following but no gold
 

axstone

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#97
Magnum.. I believe it 1800 was showing major technical over sold reading and he is a very technical guy,, I sold a few shares because i was disapointed they werent following but no gold
 

savvydon

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The problem I see with yours is you have wave 1 in blue but a lower low on 2 which makes no sense to me

View attachment 65312
My fault for using a chart that is inflation adjusted for the price of gold. This causes some visual distortion which appears to nullify the wave count. The close in July '99 was $255, while the close in July '01 was $257. Therefore wave 2 nearly retraced all of wave 1 but did not breach it. Doing so would have broken one of the basic Elliot Wave rules.

The reason the wave count cannot be as you have drawn it is because wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave of 1, 3, and 5.

I think a breach of last summer's low would strengthen the argument for this wave count considerably.
 

axstone

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I believe the next wave up whenever it comes will be the final wave 5
I also think at some point during wave 5 you will have a gap up on an over night currency revaluation.

 
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After nearly 10 years of this constant shilling by these gold promoters how can you believe a thing they say? This guy has been crying about the under performance of the miners for nearly a decade. What you see is what you get.
 
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I believe the next wave up whenever it comes will be the final wave 5
I also think at some point during wave 5 you will have a gap up on an over night currency revaluation.

Do you really think you can predict anything with Elliot Wave? Tell me what wave the Dow 30 is in? Now 32 years up and counting. Do you number the low from 1932 or 1974 or 1982? Gold entering 5th wave? What happened to the 3rd? Robert Prechter who has been getting trashed for years mentioned in his book on the Wave Theory that Gold could make a new high (over $850) and still be in a bear market. Hint. Inflation adjusted.

Prechter won the US Trading Championships two years running 84 and 85.
 
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axstone

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Jim Sinclair speaking at the NY gold show 2014 part 1

Jim Sinclair speaking at the NY gold show 2014 part 2
 
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If it Ag breaks 17, then it's all over. It would mean that there has been a >60% fall in price from its peak back in 2010. Think of what took place when RE retrenched by 60%, when other commodities failed by over 1/2 their peak price. We've been subjected to the same bullshit for over a decade now, the price of any commodity has nothing to do with demand/supply, nor any other rumination of economics or finance.

What we've seen is the best example of the fact that none of your charts, learning, rational thinking, is of any good, when confronted with an organized power far greater than the scattered power of those unorganized. The real lesson is that of deep politics and even deeper economic interests. That is what you should understand, not chart reading.....
 

axstone

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Chart Reading is a lesson in History
If you can print dollars and have them become more valuable over time, why worry about GDP or deficits.
 

Strawboss

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Good to see you Ax...been a long time...

So you think we are getting ready for wave 5? Is 4000 still your price objective?
 

axstone

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Hey strawboss,
I do believe 4,000 Canadian dollars is very close to the top for the Gold Price, its based on various studies and targets on the US dollar final price and doing math on the exchange
 

Thecrensh

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And the timing is the $1,000,000 question. ; )

Hey strawboss,
I do believe 4,000 Canadian dollars is very close to the top for the Gold Price, its based on various studies and targets on the US dollar final price and doing math on the exchange
 

axstone

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Yesterday's relatively strong move in gold looks like it will show a divergence
with the Dollar making new highs, as,gold remained above previous lows around the 1206.80 area


dollar sep 26.jpg

gold sep26.jpg

bull trap on Dollar.jpg
 
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Strawboss

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Considering what is going on in Europe with Ukraine, Russia, etc... and the capital that is flowing into the US (strengthening the dollar) - I just dont see a scenario where gold is going to rise as your chart suggests...(assuming a fairly strong correlation between the 2)...