I'm going to take a stab at dubya's question by stating that when gold starts up silver will at first lag as it is the more easily suppressed/manipulated of the two markets. During this time we should see a gsr in the 80-90 range. As gold picks up bullish sentiment and the powers that be see that resistance is futile the price of silver will be allowed to surface. At some point silver will gain momentum and we will see the gsr dive. How far along in the process that will occur is anybody's guess but looking at Ax's four year chart above one can see that by the time gold hits 1400 it will be clear that the bear has gone into hibernation and we should see the gsr already making it's way back down from the cycle high. 2c
Cdn dollar may be moving back to par . silver will look like its standing still for a while in CDN dollars
these latest moves in gold in US. hasn't budge Gold in CDN. therefore gold is not yet in a full blown bull market against all currencies..
its more of a staggard move.. Gold will move in both currencies is my guess some day..
I don't like to follow the 5 -wave or more technical cycle model. Those seem to include too much noise and are often re-worked after the fact.
I follow the "3-wave bull market" cycle model. In this model you have cycle one where the asset class is unloved and ignored, this is called the stealth period. We went through that already as I believe that wrapped up when we went over 1000 on the 3rd try and India bought the biggest single purchase ever at 1050.
The next period in the 3-wave model is the "wall of worry" phase. Which is where I believe we are still at today. This is where institutions, traders and big money gets involved. This is typically the longest of the 3 periods and is full of gut wrenching moves which worry investors and traders to the point of madness at times. I believe we exit this phase when inflation gets out of control globally, so we're probably many years from the final phase.
The final period in the 3-wave model is the "mania" phase. This phase sometimes only lasts a year or two for most asset classes but one never knows the exact point where a mania will complete. Gold may not start this mania phase until USD core inflation gets to double digits. Gold could already be at 5000 before this phase begins and could run to an amazing number depending upon how the inflation and destruction of currencies really plays out. If people in Asia begin to camp out for days to purchase physical metal of if some big gold ETFs call force major and are no longer able to keep up with the physical price then that would probably mean we're in the mania phase or at least very near to it.
I don't expect a bull run in an asset class which is actually true money while the world stupidly believes in monopoly money to be short lived or to end without a really big mania occurring.
"The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it's profits or so dependant on it's favors, that there will be no opposition from that class." -- Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws."-- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
"Most Americans have no real understanding of the operation of the international money lenders. The accounts of the Federal Reserve System have never been audited. It operates outside the control of Congress and manipulates the credit of the United States." -- Sen. Barry Goldwater (Rep. AZ)
"Whoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce." -- James A. Garfield, President of the United States
"Banks lend by creating credit. (ledger-entry credit, monetized debt) They create the means of payment out of nothing." -- Ralph M. Hawtrey, Secretary of the British Treasury
"To expose a 15 Trillion dollar ripoff of the American people by the stockholders of the 1000 largest corporations over the last 100 years will be a tall order of business." -- Buckminster Fuller
"Every Congressman, every Senator knows precisely what causes inflation...but can't, [won't] support the drastic reforms to stop it [repeal of the Federal Reserve Act] because it could cost him his job." -- Robert A. Heinlein, Expanded Universe
"It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -- Henry Ford
"The regional Federal Reserve banks are not government agencies. ...but are independent, privately owned and locally controlled corporations." -- Lewis vs. United States, 680 F. 2d 1239 9th Circuit 1982
"We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it." -- Congressman Louis T. McFadden in 1932 (Rep. Pa)
"The Federal Reserve banks are one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever seen. There is not a man within the sound of my voice who does not know that this nation is run by the International bankers." -- Congressman Louis T. McFadden (Rep. Pa)
"Some [Most] people think the Federal Reserve Banks are the United States government's institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers." -- Congressional Record 12595-12603 -- Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency (12 years) June 10, 1932
"[Every circulating FRN] represents a one dollar debt to the Federal Reserve system." -- Money Facts, House Banking and Currency Committee
"...the increase in the assets of the Federal Reserve banks from 143 million dollars in 1913 to 45 billion dollars in 1949 went directly to the private stockholders of the [federal reserve] banks." -- Eustace Mullins
"As soon as Mr. Roosevelt took office, the Federal Reserve began to buy government securities at the rate of ten million dollars a week for 10 weeks, and created one hundred million dollars in new [checkbook] currency, which alleviated the critical famine of money and credit, and the factories started hiring people again." -- Eustace Mullins
"By this means government may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft." -- British Lord John Maynard Keynes (the father of 'Keynesian Economics' which our nation now endures) in his book "THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" (1920).
"These 12 corporations together cover the whole country and monopolize and use for private gain every dollar of the public currency..." -- Mr. Crozier of Cincinnati, before Senate Banking and Currency Committee - 1913
"A great industrial nation is controlled by it's system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world-- no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men." -- President Woodrow Wilson
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." -- Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank
"The Federal Reserve Banks are not federal instrumentalities..." -- Lewis vs. United States 9th Circuit 1992
"The Federal Reserve banks, while not part of the government,..." -- United States budget for 1991 and 1992 part 7, page 10
"The Federal Reserve bank buys government bonds without one penny..." -- Congressman Wright Patman, Congressional Record, Sept 30, 1941
"The Federal Reserve system pays the U.S. Treasury 020.60 per thousand notes -- a little over 2 cents each-- without regard to the face value of the note. Federal Reserve Notes, incidentally, are the only type of currency now produced for circulation. They are printed exclusively by the Treasury's Bureau of Engraving and Printing, and the $20.60 per thousand price reflects the Bureau's full cost of production. Federal Reserve Notes are printed in 01, 02, 05, 10, 20, 50, and 100 dollar denominations only; notes of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10,000 denominations were last printed in 1945." -- Donald J. Winn, Assistant to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system
"Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities, intrinsically, a 'dollar' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries." -- Modern Money Mechanics Workbook, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1975
"This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President [Wilson} signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized....the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill." -- Charles A. Lindbergh, Sr. , 1913
"From now on, depressions will be scientifically created." -- Congressman Charles A. Lindbergh Sr. , 1913
"The financial system has been turned over to the Federal Reserve Board. That Board administers the finance system by authority of a purely profiteering group. The system is Private, conducted for the sole purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people's money" -- Charles A. Lindbergh Sr., 1923
"The [Federal Reserve Act] as it stands seems to me to open the way to a vast inflation of the currency... I do not like to think that any law can be passed that will make it possible to submerge the gold standard in a flood of irredeemable paper currency." -- Henry Cabot Lodge Sr., 1913
[Note – From 1913 until now inflation of the dollar has been 2950%. A 1913 dollar would now be worth $.034. When I became a wage earner in 1950 I could buy a full breakfast, eggs, sausage, hashbrowns, shortstack, juice, and coffee for $.39. This morning I paid $9.60 for the same, an inflation of 2460%]
"When you or I write a check there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the check, but when the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money." -- Putting it simply, Boston Federal Reserve Bank
"There is a distinction between a 'debt discharged' and a debt 'paid'. When discharged, the debt still exists though divested of it's charter as a legal obligation during the operation of the discharge, something of the original vitality of the debt continues to exist, which may be transfered, even though the transferee takes it subject to it's disability incident to the discharge." -- Stanek vs. White, 172 Minn.390, 215 N.W. 784
"I have never seen more Senators express discontent with their jobs....I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices in doing something terrible and unforgivable to our wonderful country. Deep down in our heart, we know that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected." -- John Danforth (R-Mo)
"Capital must protect itself in every way...Debts must be collected and loans and mortgages foreclosed as soon as possible. When through a process of law the common people have lost their homes, they will be more tractable and more easily governed by the strong arm of the law applied by the central power of leading financiers. People without homes will not quarrel with their leaders. This is well known among our principal men now engaged in forming an imperialism of capitalism to govern the world. By dividing the people we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions of no importance to us except as teachers of the common herd." -- Taken from the Civil Servants' Year Book, "The Organizer" January 1934.
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a monied aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power (of money) should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs." -- Thomas Jefferson, U.S. President.
"If Congress has the right [it doesn't] to issue paper money [currency], it was given to them to be used by...[the government] and not to be delegated to individuals or corporations." -- President Andrew Jackson, Vetoed Bank Bill of 1836
"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and it's issuance." -- James Madison
"Should government refrain from regulation (taxation), the worthlessness of the money becomes apparent and the FRAUD can no longer be concealed." -- British Lord John Maynard Keynes (the father of 'Keynesian Economics' which our nation now endures) in his book "THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE PEACE" (1920).
"But if in the pursuit of the means we should unfortunately stumble again on unfunded paper money or any similar species of fraud, we shall assuredly give a fatal stab to our national credit in its infancy. Paper money will invariably operate in the body of politics as spirit liquors on the human body. They prey on the vitals and ultimately destroy them. Paper money has had the effect in your state that it will ever have, to ruin commerce, oppress the honest, and open the door to every species of fraud and injustice." -- George Washington in a letter to Jabez Bowen, Rhode Island, Jan. 9, 1787
The economic Crash of '29 and the Great Depression were caused by the money vultures and foreign swindlers of the Federal Reserve withholding currency from circulation and raising interest rates after an inflationary easy money policy in the early 1920s. The Federal Reserve's fear of excessive speculation led it into a far too deflationary policy in the late 1920s, "destroying the village in order to save it."
The U.S. economy was already past the peak of the business cycle when the stock market crashed in October of 1929. The Federal Reserve did "overdo it" -- raising interest rates too much, bringing on the recession that they had hoped to avoid.
This contrived "emergency" by the money vultures and the political manipulations of FDR, et. al. since then has created innumerous abuses, usurpations, and abridgments of Constitutionally delegated Powers and Authority as clearly stated in Senate Report 93-549 (1973):
"A majority of the people of the United States have lived all of their lives under emergency rule. For 40 years, [-1817 years now in 116] freedoms and governmental procedures guaranteed by the Constitution have in varying degrees been abridged by laws brought into force by statutes of national emergency."