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Bill Holter & Jim Sinclair – Gold $87,000 per ounce at Least

the_shootist

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#2
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I'm almost embarrassed for anyone who posts another one of these Youtube 'gold going to $xx,xxx an ounce' gems! Seriously....how much of the same drivel over and over is enough? I'm not looking forward to if and when 6 digit per ounce gold becomes a reality. There will be a lot of other shit to deal with under those conditions.

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Joseph

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#3
I'm almost embarrassed for anyone who posts another one of these Youtube gold going to $xx,xxx an ounce gems! Seriously....how much of the same drivel over and over is enough? I'm not looking forward to if and when 6 digit per ounce gold becomes a reality. There will be a lot of other shit to deal with under those conditions.

Sinclair has been pimping $50000 gold for years

"$50,000 Gold in 2020" -- Jim Sinclair's Senior Moment
Gary North - March 20, 2014

Reality Check

Jim Sinclair now predicts that gold will be at $50,000 sometime in 2020. This is all over the Web.

With gold at about $1330 an ounce these days, the price would have to multiply by a factor of 38 to reach $50,000.

Let me the be the first to say that this is not going to happen. I say this as a gold bug out of the early 1960's.

There are far better sources of both profits and income for investors than gold at $50,000 an ounce. Nobody is going to pay you or anyone else $50,000 for your Krugerrand.

If you can take four one-ounce gold coins, sell them for $200,000, pay your income taxes, and buy a debt-free investment house for $150,000 that will generate 10% per annum, why would you hold onto the coins? You would not hold onto the coins if you had 100 of them, or 300 of them. You would sell most of them. The population of the United States is going to go to 400 million people by 2050. These people will have to live somewhere. Why would you hold gold coins, when you could buy a debt free house just by selling four coins? Sit back and collect your rental income for the rest your life, and watch the value of your houses go up.

With housing, you get capital gains tax benefits. With gold bullion, you don't. You will pay twice the tax rate.


He says that hyperinflation is going to hit the United States before 2021. Not mere inflation. Hyperinflation. Yes, you have heard that before. You heard it in January 1980, when gold was at $840 for one day. Will people be paying 38 times what today's homes cost? Is the median price going to be $200,000 times 38? Do you really think the typical house will cost $7.6 million? If so, buy investment houses, not gold coins. You can buy homes with owner-financed debt. You can leverage your investment by at least ten to one. The renters will pay off the mortgages. Meanwhile, you can depreciate the homes. You can write off the mortgage interest payments as business expenses.

If hyperinflation is going to raise prices by 38 to one, get some leverage. Gold coins will not give you any leverage.

Mr. Sinclair needs to lie down, put a cool washcloth on his forehead, and take a nap. Senior moments happen to us as we get past age 70. We get over them. Usually.

Here is his position.



Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair says financial calamity is just around the corner for America. Sinclair contends, "We are facing the annihilation of currency. We are facing the shift of America as the leading and most influential nation of the world to some form of banana republic. . . . If it wasn't for food stamps, we would be facing long lines of people waiting for free food." For gold, everything hinges on the U.S. dollar, and Sinclair says, "I think the dollar gets hammered. I believe we are headed for hyperinflation." One of the many black swans, according to Sinclair, is the possible abandonment of the U.S. dollar by Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia stopped selling oil only in U.S. dollars, what would that do to the buying power of the buck? Sinclair says gasoline would be "$10 a gallon very soon, without a doubt."​
Sinclair predicts retirement funds and bank deposits are going to be taken by the government. How much of your money could you lose? Sinclair says, "In Cyprus, it was a total of 83%. . . . Cypress is the blueprint, and it's what we are going to experience here in the United States." Jim Sinclair, who has just accepted the position as Chairman of the Advisory Board for the establishment of the Singapore Gold Exchange, says, "The exchange will trade physical gold only and not future gold. . . . You have to make delivery." Meaning, there will be no naked short selling or manipulation of this new market. Sinclair says, "This will emancipate gold from the paper price." How high will gold go? Sinclair predicts, by 2016, "Gold will be $3,200 to $3,500 an ounce." By 2020, Sinclair predicts, "Emancipated gold will be $50,000 per ounce."​


http://usawatchdog.com/jim-sinclair-50000-gold-us-dollar-collapse-hyperinflation-and-more/
In April 2008, he predicted gold at $1650. That was a good call. Gold hit $1650 twice: going up and going down.

HYPERINFLATION

First and foremost, contrary to Mr. Sinclair's prediction, we are not facing annihilation of any major currency. There has not been an annihilation of any currency in any Western, industrial nation above the equator for two centuries, unless it has lost a major war. Germany's hyperinflation in 1921-23 was the result of Germany's loss in World War I. The same was true of Austria and Hungary. The reason why those forecasters who predict hyperinflation in the West appeal to this example is this: there are no other examples. They took place over 90 years ago. Nothing like this has taken place since.

If World War II did not produce hyperinflation in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, why will today's crony capitalist crises create it?

He is saying that something that has not happened since the French Revolution's assignats in 1794 is going to happen before 2121. I have heard this forecast for 50 years.

But is not just the annihilation of the U.S. dollar that he is talking about. He is saying there be annihilation of all major currencies. This is necessarily saying there will be an annihilation of Western civilization by the end of 2020: the destruction of the division of labor.

Every nation today inflates its currency to hold down its dollar-denominated price in relation to the U.S. dollar. This is a technique of mercantilism: subsidizing exports through currency depreciation. The United States is where the world wants to sell. To say that only the dollar will collapse is to say that modern international trade will collapse. The whole world will cease inflating. The whole world will not sell to the United States. The most productive large economy on earth will become an unproductive, isolated banana republic in 2020.

He offers a hypothesis: Saudis might stop selling oil for U.S. dollars? I ask: What will they choose as an alternative? The yen? The euro? Why will those currencies and economies be better than ours? They surely aren't today.

Today, there is an international division of labor based on fiat currencies. A shift to an all-gold international currency could only take place after a complete collapse of all fiat currencies, not just the U.S. dollar. Between now and 2021, there would have to be a cessation of trade as well as domestic division of labor. This would mean the complete collapse of civilization. It isn't going to happen in 2020.

World War II did not cause this, but crony capitalism will. This in fact has never happened in human history: simultaneous international hyperinflation. But it's inevitable today, we are told. It will happen within seven years. This is the inescapable implication of Mr. Sinclair's prediction. I don't take it seriously. Neither should you.

A senior moment is not fatal. I am sure Mr. Sinclair will shake this off.

There can be major recessions. We saw this in 2008-9. There can be substantial losses of capital for the top 20% of wealth owners, who own at least 80% of the wealth. But central bankers are not going to inflate their domestic currencies, simultaneously, until all currencies to zero value. It has never happened in history, and it is not in the self-interest of central bankers to let it happen now. They will see that it is better to allow the boom-bust cycle to go back and forth once more in between now and 2020. David Stockman calls these "serial bubbles." That pretty well describes the process. It has worked just fine for crony capitalists ever since 1947. This will not change anytime soon.

Mr. Sinclair says we are going to see $10 a gallon gasoline in 2016. I think he is wrong, but what if he is right? So what? That is about three times higher than it is today. If gold is less than three times higher in 2016, as he predicts -- maybe $3,500 -- than it is today, so what? That is a long, long way from $50,000 -- specifically, $46,500.

He says that Cyprus is a blueprint. It is? Really? For what nation? Maybe Malta. Cyprus is not a blueprint for anything larger than an island. It was a fluke from the beginning, and some rich Russians thought they were going to beat the eurozone system by investing their money there. Today there are fewer rich Russians. So what? The partial bank collapse in Cyprus had no repercussions anywhere else. The crisis in Greece had a few repercussions, but it's over for now. The European Central Bank did not inflate the currency to zero value.

Mr. Sinclair believes that when commodity futures investors start to demand delivery of gold, this will drive the price of gold up. I ask this: Has this happened to any commodity in the past? The answer is no. He knows this. He says that the Comex may start settling gold contracts in dollars. I think he is probably right. But that doesn't mean that gold is going to $50,000 as a result. People speculate in commodity futures in terms of U.S. dollars, in order to get more U.S. dollars, not to get gold. When they can get more dollars, they take the money and run. They did not intend to take delivery. They just want their leveraged returns, paid for by those on the other side of the contracts.

Commodity futures trading is a zero-sum game. There is someone long and someone short. The gains one will make will be paid for by the other. He sees a 38-to-one increases. Why gold alone? He did not say. Hyperinflation will have this effect on all commodities.

If you think his scenario makes no sense, that's because you are not suffering from a senior moment. But if you think it does makes sense, and you are under age 70, see your doctor. Or your psychiatrist.

THE SUPERCLASS AND GOLD

At the top end of the wealth of the world are about 6,000 people, according to David Rothkopf in his book, Superclass. They run the show. A show does not go on unless they approve it.

These people do not own gold. They do not want to own gold. They own capital assets. They own large banks. They surely own the politicians. Think of them as the COMEX for elections: a true zero-sum game for the voters. What these people say, is what the rest of us get. These people are not going to go out and sell many of their assets for gold. Anyway, nobody else could buy these assets. To sell assets, you have to have a buyer of the assets. To get currency, meaning digital money, to buy gold in physical form, you have to sell something for dollars. You have to sell it to another member of the superclass.

Why will a few of them buy gold between now and 2020? They never have since 1914. Why would we expect them to change their minds? Sure, they might buy a little gold bullion. They could drive gold's price up, but not by 38 to one.

Even if they start buying, watch what happens in India. There will be sales of physical gold by Indians. There always is. They are gold experts, and they do not hold on to gold at the margin when they can get a lot of dollars for gold. They are speculators. They happen to hold physical gold, but they are still speculators. If the price goes up, physical gold will be made available from India. Count on it.

Mr. Sinclair is implicitly and necessarily saying that a significant segment of the old boy network that runs the world, the superclass, will reverse their opposition to gold sometime in the next six years. They are going to shift significant quantities of their wealth in the direction of gold, despite the fact that they control the whole world, including the world's political structures. How? By means of the present financial system, which is not based on gold, and has not been based on gold since August 1914. He expects this enormous change to take place at the very top, which means the Keynesian-educated elite, at least a third of whom have attended one of 20 elite universities in the West. All of a sudden, without warning, these people are going to abandon Keynesianism and its hatred of gold, and adopt some version of Austrian economics.

It isn't going to happen.

Meanwhile, if the price of gold soars, millions of little people, meaning Indians who buy gold for their daughters' dowries, will come into the market and sell physical gold, thereby depressing its price in dollars. So, the people at the top, who make the decisions, are not going to become gold bugs, and the people at the bottom, who really are gold bugs, will sell gold into Western markets, or into Chinese markets, if they think there is going to be money made by selling gold.

We will not have hyperinflation in the Western economies between now and 2020. The whole world holds U.S. dollars as the #1 reserve currency. This is how they subsidize exports: mercantilism. We are not going to go from around 2% CPI price inflation per annum in 2014 to hyperinflation in 2020. There is no way that this is going to happen. Mr. Sinclair presents no scenario that would let it happen. That is because there is no such scenario, short of nuclear war and a collapse of Western civilization. He did not mention nuclear war in his interview.

Excess reserves held by commercial banks at the Federal Reserve are sufficient to make certain that there is not going to be hyperinflation. That is why there has not been hyperinflation since 2008. The commercial banks are not going to lend this money into society if they think worldwide hyperinflation is coming. That would mean the destruction of civilization. But they are surely not going to buy gold. The Federal Reserve can stop that at any time.

The rich people at the top of the wealth pyramid are Keynesians. They are devotees at the temple of Keynes. They are not going to abandon this religion between now and 2020. Mr. Sinclair does not understand how powerful this religion is. Keynesianism has the markings of a religion. It has a confession: "Fiat money overcomes recessions." It has an agenda: salvation by economic growth. It has a doctrine of omniscience: monetary central planning. It has a priesthood: Ph.D-holding economists. It has evangelism: Congress, the universities, and the mainstream media.

Mr. Sinclair is not just talking about the shift in commodity investing. He is talking about, first, the religious transformation of the international superclass, and second, a collapse of Western civilization, which is what hyperinflation would produce.

Let me say it loud and clear: neither is going to happen between now and 2021.

After you view this, you can safely ignore it.



https://www.garynorth.com/public/12243.cfm



Sunday 27 March 2011 02:00
US preacher warns end of the world is nigh: 21 May, around 6pm, to be precise

(But he has been wrong before). Guy Adams reports from California

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-21-may-around-6pm-to-be-precise-2254139.html
 

the_shootist

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#5
I'm still a little weirded out that Palladium is worth more than Gold which is worth more than Platinum now.
Palladium is Fool's gold. Stay away from it!
 

TAEZZAR

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#7
"$50,000 Gold in 2020" -- Jim Sinclair's Senior Moment
Is anyone here good enough to figure the price of gold based on the 1913 price of $20.67 when our fed script was 100 pennies, compared to today's fed script of somewhere in the 1.5 to 2 pennies range ?
 

Cigarlover

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#11
Seems to me like Jim may be a little off here for some reason. First he says we are going to have a debt jubilee then says gold will rise to a level to pay off the debt.
 

Zed

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#12
I'm not saying that it is impossible, JUST that IMO we are totally fucked if it happens.... no banks, no system to speak of etc...
 

Zed

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#14
Not sure I did this right, $20.67 / .015 = $1378
Wouldn't you have to factor in the total amount of dollars v the total amount of gold? I wonder what it would take to back the USD with shiny stuff once again? Cash (aka M1) vs US Gold.
 

EricTheCat

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#16
Wouldn't you have to factor in the total amount of dollars v the total amount of gold? I wonder what it would take to back the USD with shiny stuff once again? Cash (aka M1) vs US Gold.
Good point. Then there's also population and supply/demand, perhaps some manipulation. So, I just went with the numbers given.

I am in agreement that if gold was at $87,000 there would probably be very big problems. I wonder what a bag of flour would cost in that scenario.
 

Zed

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#18
I be selling my gold teef...to pay off my mortgage.
In Wiemar Germany they reset all mortgages to a value expressed in oz's of gold at the date they where taken out. The little people are never allowed an easy out and the banking system will be protected.
 

Uglytruth

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#20
Gerald Celente said 2K gold 8-9 years ago...........
 

Cigarlover

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#21
Bill said the 87,000 number came from US gold holdings of 8300 tons and total debt of 21 trillion. That obviously doesn't take into account the 100 plus trillion in unfunded liabilities and state debt and pensions.
However, if everything goes tits up then the unfunded liabilities will just vanish. No pensions or welfare payments will get made. As others have already mentioned, this won't be a time for celebration.
 

Goldhedge

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#23
There is also the “missing” $21trillion Catherine Austin Fitts uncovered that isn’t accounted for.

Folks I know always exclaim “but there isn’t enough gold to cover all that...”

I reply that there is PRECISELY enough gold to cover it. What they don’t seem to grasp is the revaluation of fiat to gold that will take place. They are still thinking paper is money, when we know that gold is money and all else is debt.
 

Strawboss

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#24
Its all bullshit...all of it.

Everything...

We are sharing a round rock that spins around a star that is not extraordinary in any way. That star is in the suburbs of a galaxy that is not spectacular in any way - sharing space with about...hell - who knows how many other stars in the galaxy. Your guess is as good as mine.

And our galaxy? Yup - its not particularly special in any way either. In fact - there are supposedly more galaxies than there are grains of sand...or ounces of gold...or something....

And here we sit...discussing how precious and valuable that gold is. Meanwhile - the gold we have just sits there. It doesnt talk back...it doesnt need to be fed or anything...it just sits there. Quiet.

When you really...and I mean REALLY think about it...the only thing that gives gold "value" is the fact that there are people that think it is "valuable". And they come up with reasons and rationales and predictions of future price performance and blah, blah, blah...

The greater sucker theory I guess. The belief that at some future point - someone will be willing to buy it from us at a price that we think is good for us...

Am I right?

Its all based on beliefs. Belief in this...belief in that...speculation that X will happen by Y, etc...

Its all bullshit.

All of it.
 

Cigarlover

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#25
There is also the “missing” $21trillion Catherine Austin Fitts uncovered that isn’t accounted for.

Folks I know always exclaim “but there isn’t enough gold to cover all that...”

I reply that there is PRECISELY enough gold to cover it. What they don’t seem to grasp is the revaluation of fiat to gold that will take place. They are still thinking paper is money, when we know that gold is money and all else is debt.
Thats why I say we could have always stayed on the gold standard. Congress has the right to coin money and regulate the value thereof. They can say it has a value of 50k or 100k or 1 million.

Its all bullshit...all of it.

Everything...

We are sharing a round rock that spins around a star that is not extraordinary in any way. That star is in the suburbs of a galaxy that is not spectacular in any way - sharing space with about...hell - who knows how many other stars in the galaxy. Your guess is as good as mine.

And our galaxy? Yup - its not particularly special in any way either. In fact - there are supposedly more galaxies than there are grains of sand...or ounces of gold...or something....

And here we sit...discussing how precious and valuable that gold is. Meanwhile - the gold we have just sits there. It doesnt talk back...it doesnt need to be fed or anything...it just sits there. Quiet.

When you really...and I mean REALLY think about it...the only thing that gives gold "value" is the fact that there are people that think it is "valuable". And they come up with reasons and rationales and predictions of future price performance and blah, blah, blah...

The greater sucker theory I guess. The belief that at some future point - someone will be willing to buy it from us at a price that we think is good for us...

Am I right?

Its all based on beliefs. Belief in this...belief in that...speculation that X will happen by Y, etc...

Its all bullshit.

All of it.
you are correct. 100%.
 

Densus

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#26
Its all bullshit...all of it.

Everything...

We are sharing a round rock that spins around a star that is not extraordinary in any way. That star is in the suburbs of a galaxy that is not spectacular in any way - sharing space with about...hell - who knows how many other stars in the galaxy. Your guess is as good as mine.

And our galaxy? Yup - its not particularly special in any way either. In fact - there are supposedly more galaxies than there are grains of sand...or ounces of gold...or something....

And here we sit...discussing how precious and valuable that gold is. Meanwhile - the gold we have just sits there. It doesnt talk back...it doesnt need to be fed or anything...it just sits there. Quiet.

When you really...and I mean REALLY think about it...the only thing that gives gold "value" is the fact that there are people that think it is "valuable". And they come up with reasons and rationales and predictions of future price performance and blah, blah, blah...

The greater sucker theory I guess. The belief that at some future point - someone will be willing to buy it from us at a price that we think is good for us...

Am I right?

Its all based on beliefs. Belief in this...belief in that...speculation that X will happen by Y, etc...

Its all bullshit.

All of it.
Pretty much
 

Goldhedge

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#27
When I look out the window at the bird feeder I think, 'Gee, if life were that easy. Dodge the occasional hawk, cat, predator. Eat, procreate, and die.

That's where the Garden of Eden and the apple from the tree of knowledge comes in to explain 'how' it is we have to work for life to exist in a fiat world. Eat, procreate, and die.

It IS all shit, but what are you gonna do? If you wanna go all commando there are plenty of wide open spaces in the world where fiat doesn't exist. I've come to the conclusion we're all to soft to attempt it. Too comfortable in our own skins and leather couches.

We'd probably die trying and if we succeed we'd be dead by 40. It's a tough row to hoe striking out like the Pilgrims did.
 

engineear

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#28
When the bullet hits the bone is when the shtf for the silent ones, when that happens I'm not sure to what end.
And, it's pronounced...bool-sheet! Bool-sheet I tell you!
If the lead doesn't fly soon and theirs a revaluation and metals rise, what happens to society? Crazy price increases? ?, gas to $5, milk to $5...? I'm open to opinions.
 

Cigarlover

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#29
When the bullet hits the bone is when the shtf for the silent ones, when that happens I'm not sure to what end.
And, it's pronounced...bool-sheet! Bool-sheet I tell you!
If the lead doesn't fly soon and theirs a revaluation and metals rise, what happens to society? Crazy price increases? ?, gas to $5, milk to $5...? I'm open to opinions.
If gold goes to 87k and silver to a 10 to 1 ratio that would put silver at 8700. Since 1964 you have been able to buy 3-4 gallons for a silver dollar. That would put gas over 2k a gallon.

up until last year there have only been 500 million or so silver eagles sold ever. Less than 2 per person in the US. What percentage of silver sold in the US has been in the form of eagles? 10%? So maybe 5 billion ounces in private hands in the US. That would be enough for 20 ones per person in the US. My guess is only about 10% of the population actually owns any silver though. That leaves 90% of the population thats screwed. Whatever savings they had are wiped out in round 1 of hyperinflation.
 

Strawboss

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#30
If gold goes to 87k and silver to a 10 to 1 ratio that would put silver at 8700. Since 1964 you have been able to buy 3-4 gallons for a silver dollar. That would put gas over 2k a gallon.

up until last year there have only been 500 million or so silver eagles sold ever. Less than 2 per person in the US. What percentage of silver sold in the US has been in the form of eagles? 10%? So maybe 5 billion ounces in private hands in the US. That would be enough for 20 ones per person in the US. My guess is only about 10% of the population actually owns any silver though. That leaves 90% of the population thats screwed. Whatever savings they had are wiped out in round 1 of hyperinflation.
Its more complicated than that of course because there are other forms of assets that perform well in a hyperinflation environment like stocks and real estate, etc...

But - since we are winging it on the percentages - I would venture a guess that the true number of people (as a percentage) that are able to "escape" the hyperinflation ravaging is probably closer to 3-5%...

Splitting hairs I know...
 

Zed

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#31
The people in India could buy the world. If they buy 500 or 600 tons EVERY YEAR, just imagine what they have available.
Thats a point, India could come surging out of the backwoods on the price of gold. Now wouldn't that just screw over the analysts!
 

Goldhedge

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#32
What Holter said is in Venezuela there is plenty of toilet paper.

There's no credit.

No credit means no delivery.

No delivery means no product on the shelves.

Everything moves on credit.
 

Zed

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#33
Its more complicated than that of course because there are other forms of assets that perform well in a hyperinflation environment like stocks and real estate, etc...
Real Estate has issues because of finance!
 

Strawboss

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#34
Real Estate has issues because of finance!
True...but in a hyperinflation - would you rather hold real estate...or a bond?
 

GOLDBRIX

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#37

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#38

Zed

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#39
True...but in a hyperinflation - would you rather hold real estate...or a bond?
Real Estate AFTER the credit flush, but it still lags over the long haul especially as rates rise.