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Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

Silver Buck

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Good Afternoon GIMmers,

Goldhedge caught me off-guard with his prompt. I do like a fresh project. However, I do not know how well (if at all) Gin Bottling would carry over from Commodities Futures to an Index like the HUI. Gin Bottling is based on the cyclical nature of Commodities Futures where it anticipates the ebb and flow of contracts and seasonal sentiment. So, will Gin Bottling be able to hold its Gin when tossed into the Bug Basket?

I'll have to check this out when I have a bit more time.

For now, I did some quick Gin Hack Analysis to have something to toss onto the GIM Dartboard:

Monthly HUI looks to be able to carry some Gin up the hill for a bit. It's recently coming off of a retest of that low set back in the Great Reset of '08:



Weekly HUI seems to have possibly peaked. Will have to keep an eye on the price on that Orange Rail:



Daily HUI seems to be showing signs of needing a breather:



It seems to me that the HUI wants to make a run up, but perhaps right now isn't the bestest of times. However, looking back I do see that we've had higher lows, so...



I've been thinking about seeing how Gin Bottling holds up to things other than Commodity Futures.

We shall see how the Gin Bottle thinks about getting out of its comfort zone.

Happy Charting
 

Silver Buck

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The Gin Bottle Has Been Drinking...

Good Morning GIMers,

It seems that the Gin Bottle has been drinking that Open Interest Kool-aid, and I was wondering if I was being paranoid. Well, it seems that perhaps there is something going on, but if the Gin Bottle knows, it is too drunk to make any sense.

Before we get to what the Gin Bottle is going on about, let's first take a look at some rebuilt channels (hindsight and all, and confirmation biasing going on here...)

The Daily:



The Gin Bottle is still testing out some timing lines based on projected RSI cycles (whether certain levels are reached or not is unimportant, just the projected 'sentimental' timing...). Just keep in mind that these types of charts that the Gin Bottle does are works of art that are arts in the works and should not be taken seriously.

They're just pretty scribbles on a piece of construction paper.

Now for the Weekly and a look at its OI (almost sounds dirty...):



It's as though investors/speculators/whatevers are losing interest in the Shiny. But I don't have a firm grasp of what goes on behind the scenes with OI (but I am trying to learn and do my own research, a bit of help would be appreciated...). Howwever, the Weekly OI has had me going "Hmmm..." for some time now while I sip on some Gin. Lately though, I've been content to sit back and wait for the Monthly to see what it has to bring. It hasn't shown any signs of dropping, but then it is a Monthly. Since OI/CoT reports come out on Tuesday, I figured today would be the Day of Reckoning as far as the Monthly OI goes.

I was gobsmacked (and the Gin Bottle did nothing but snicker...):

Monthly OI:



Someone needs to do some 'splainin', because either I'm missing something, or something serious is going on.

I anxiously and eagerly await someone's take on this.

Happy Charting
 

Silver Buck

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Late Gin Bottling Is Late

Good Afternoon GIMmers,

Been busy of late and haven't been able to properly keep up on the Gin Bottling. It seems that I should have let the chart develop before drawing a new channel, but I can't help but try to get ahead of the game. The Gin Bottle still is trying to instill patience into me, but dammit, I don't know if I can wait for patience to arrive.

Here's a quick shot of today's Daily, and the 2 points I should be using for a new channel (instead of that green one):



This is what the Gin Bottle says the channel should have been (had I been patient...):



See how much better that looks? I know... the Gin Bottle says it's nothing more than trying to cook the Chartistry, but hey, when piloting a boat, one has to make course changes as needed.

Right?

And again, I need to quit obsessing with Open Interest, but like the Moth is drawn to the Bug Light...



I just hope we don't get zapped.

Happy Charting
 

D-FENZ

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I don't mean to step on your thread but this seems like the appropriate place to ask...

What do you make of the price action in palladium today? To me it looks like a bullish breakout from about 3 classic chart patterns. Any thoughts?
 

Silver Buck

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I don't mean to step on your thread but this seems like the appropriate place to ask...

What do you make of the price action in palladium today? To me it looks like a bullish breakout from about 3 classic chart patterns. Any thoughts?
I do welcome questions and input! The lack of such makes for a boring thread.

Sorry this is a bit late in coming, and it is a bit rushed.

Palladium Daily:



It is rare that we'll get a bounce off of 60 RSI after coming down from nearly reaching 80. This leads me to believe that it is indeed an emotional reaction. However, with nothing else to support the Gin Bottle, take all of this with a squeeze of Lime.

Let's see if the monthly shows us anything:

Palladium Monthly



The fact that Palladium is approaching an all-time high of around $850 causes me to wonder if all of this is more of a reaction to the Russia/Ukraine/Crimea incident since Russia is a major supplier of Palladium and folks are worried that supplies will be interrupted. The fact that Russia is a pretty big place supply may not be affected at all. However, fear does drive prices, so I'd be extra cautious right now.

Hope this helps out.

Good Evening GIMmers,

While I was digging for the Palladium charts, I accidentally did up a Platinum one, so:



Here's a bit of Silver Late Night Gin:



Happy Charting.
 

Goldhedge

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Welcome back Buck! Glad you're still around and posting!
 

Silver Buck

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Would be happy to see you fall back off the wagon.:D
I may have some Wheaton Metals to talk about in the morning. It won't be a chart, but it will be some number crunching.

In the mean time, I'm getting adjusted to using a Winders device since my current budget can't afford to replace my worn out MacBook, and I'm uncertain if it is worth sinking any money into it. I can't complain about the price of this old Winders machine. Simply did yard work for an old man who didn't have the time nor the health to keep up with his property. I'd do it for beer and bourbon (his drink of choice), but he insists on paying me something.
 

Silver Buck

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Wheaton will have to wait. I came across some Palladium discussion and had to do a bit of quick research, especially since I've had an strong interest in Palladium both scientifically and as an investment/holding (and been selling it off over the past 6 months, even sold my Soviet Ballerina).

Here's an edited cross-post from the relevant thread:

===============================================================================

A couple of nuggets to gnaw on concerning Palladium:

Norlisk Nickel is the top producer of Palladium in the world (accounting for 41% of the world's supply):

Source: https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-biggest-palladium-producers-2339734

"OK SB, so what! What's the big deal!"

The owners are throwing a shit-fit.

"Co-owners of Russia's Nornickel back in fight for control"

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ickel-back-in-fight-for-control-idUSKCN1G00LP

Excerpts:

"MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) - A power struggle over Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) (GMKN.MM) resurfaced on Friday as billionaire Vladimir Potanin offered to buy Roman Abramovich’s stake in the mining group, and a third businessman - Oleg Deripaska - tried to block the deal."

How long has this been going on?

"Deripaska and Potanin, who is Nornickel’s largest shareholder, have periodically been at loggerheads since Deripaska’s aluminum group Rusal (more on Rusal later) (0486.HK) bought a stake in Nornickel just before the 2008 global crash. Rusal currently owns 27.8 percent of Nornickel.

Chelsea soccer club owner Abramovich stepped up as a “white knight” minority shareholder, to act as a buffer between Potanin and Deripaska in 2012.

The peace deal involved a five-year lock-up period, during which they could not sell most of their Nornickel stakes. This ended in late 2017.

Deripaska and Potanin, who is Nornickel’s largest shareholder, have periodically been at loggerheads since Deripaska’s aluminum group Rusal (0486.HK) bought a stake in Nornickel just before the 2008 global crash. Rusal currently owns 27.8 percent of Nornickel."

Things ramped up in 2012:

"Chelsea soccer club owner Abramovich stepped up as a “white knight” minority shareholder, to act as a buffer between Potanin and Deripaska in 2012.

The peace deal involved a five-year lock-up period, during which they could not sell most of their Nornickel stakes. This ended in late 2017."

So, while I do not believe that this is the sole reason for the rise in Palladium (the increasing use in superconductors may be a significant demand factor), it stands to reason that the market would be influenced by such ownership instability with the world's largest producer of Palladium (especially at 41% of the world's supply).

How much longer is this going to go on? Perhaps not much, considering:

"Potanin made an offer to purchase a stake in Nornickel from Abramovich and his partners, Potanin’s asset manager Interros Holding told Reuters on Friday.

...

Rusal is now seeking an injunction in a London court to block the possible deal, Interros said. Interros also said it believed Rusal’s claim against the possible deal was unjustified.

Stephen Phillips, the judge hearing the case in the London court, said on Friday he would allow parties involved to delay the injunction hearing until the week of March 5. The parties in the case also asked the court for a trial before June."

So, it seems that the pissing contest over who controls the world's biggest Palladium producer is about to come to some sort of end, very soonish. Then again, we are talking about courts, and lawyers, who make money keeping things in litigation.

================================================================================

So, it seems that the world is holding its Palladium breath until these owners figure out how to resolve this like adults, or a judge tells the children what to do wit their toys.

In the mean time, this may be a great selling opportunity, with a possible buy-back later this year.

Now, I must be off to join some friends in eating chili, drinking beer, sipping bourbon, and watching cars turn left at 200 mph.

Wheaton Precious Metals will just have to wait.
 

Silver Buck

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SB! You could have done a better job! You know better than doing this while sober!

Forgive the duplications in the body. I just hope the material carries well enough.
 

Silver Buck

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Been busy, but here's a quick link to resent... wheeling and dealings:

UPDATE 2-Russia's Prokhorov sells 6 pct stake in Rusal to Vekselberg

Remember Rusal?

Quick excerpts:

"Prokhorov’s purchase of a stake in Rusal triggered a long-running battle for control of mining giant Norilsk Nickel 10 years ago."

"Rusal has a market value of almost $11 billion, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon."

https://www.reuters.com/article/rus...ct-stake-in-rusal-to-vekselberg-idUSL8N1Q94I4

Personally, I don't know exactly what to make of all of this (my own business has been keeping me very busy of late). But as a hack chartist, I was taught to let the fundamentals lead you, not the charts.

Perhaps I'll distill a Pd chart in the near future.

And I haven't forgotten about Wheaton!
 

Silver Buck

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Ugh... so much to cover, but life gets in the way. At least peeps want to give me moniez...

Quickly:

There are only two primary Palladium mines (as of '12, but I don't see that as having changed):

Stillwater
North American Palladium


Let's chat about Stillwater.

They got bought up by Sibyane less than a year ago:

Stillwater Mining Company Announces Completion of Acquisition by Sibanye

https://globenewswire.com/news-rele...ces-Completion-of-Acquisition-by-Sibanye.html

"SB, so what? Peeps get bought up ALL the time!"

Let's chat about Sibanye:

Sibanye-Stillwater withholds final dividend as it plunges into loss

Source: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/c...holds-final-dividend-as-it-plunges-into-loss/

"Sibanye-Stillwater withheld its final dividend for the first time as it posted a deep plunge into an annual loss and ballooning debt, and instead opted to issue shares to its investors as it bedded down a number of costly acquisitions."

So, Palladium has been a fickle bitch for quite some time, and add to her hormonal swings the fact that she's believes that she is seemingly an under-appreciated bitch that gets all emo because she isn't getting the love that she 'feels' she deserves, well...

She's not ALL that and a kilo doorstop of Silver like she believes she is.

She's a secondary/byproduct slut, where a Nornickle whores her out as a byproduct and is still the world's leading producer (41%) of the slag.

So, Palladium's biggest pimp is in court over a court battle, and Stillwater got bought up by Sibanye and his its own...

Oh wait, I didn't cover that yet...

Two dead after Sibanye-Stillwater's South African mine collapse

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ers-south-african-mine-collapse-idUSKBN1FR1M6

"Two workers were killed after a section of Sibanye-Stillwater’s Kloof gold mine in South Africa collapsed on Wednesday, the company said, a week after more that 1,000 workers were stuck underground at another of its mines in the country."

Deal Wizard of South African Gold Mining Is Scaring Investors

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...outh-african-gold-mining-is-scaring-investors

"The South African miner’s stock plunged by a record 16 percent Thursday (Feb 22nd, '18) after the company warned it may consider selling assets, metals streams and -- only as a last resort -- new shares, if the recent strength in the rand persists.

Sibanye is under pressure to reduce debt after a rapid-fire series of deals that transformed the company from a staid and steady gold producer to a diversified precious-metals miner with both southern African and U.S. assets. The company’s net debt is 2.6 times underlying earnings and almost as high as its current market value."

So... what we have is one of the two primary Palladium mines being in financial turmoil, and the biggest supplier of the world's Palladium being all emo, and its a wonder that the bipolar metal market isn't swinging more to-and-fro than the Jolly Roger on the high seas in the North Atlantic.

...

Or perhaps it is... with a plunge set to put the Demon Drop into the realm of a Clown Bouncy House and set Palladium as the standard for Deep Sea Divers where one either collapses under the weight of the sea, or implodes due to the bends when one comes up too fast.

Silver was a Bucking Bronco, but now that the world understands that that Silver Bitch has been tamed (due to her being nothing but a byproduct slag) she's settled down in a quiet pasture.

Now, the Palladium Pony has been off and running hard for the Run for the Roses, and those who cash in early may be cashing in well with their early claims. The thing is, will that Young Stallion be put away wet, and then let out to pasture before being lead off to the glue factory (once the kids decide just what they are going to do with their Palladium toys).

tl/dr: Palladium is nothing more than a secondary metal that is pulled out of the ground because when one mines for other metals (in this case nickel) that you pull out ALL of the metals (see Silver Wheaton.... err... Wheaton Precious Metals).

Wish I had more to dig, and more to share, but I've been busy whoring out my mind with what it knows (which gives me a near infinite return) than what I would really love to do (slut my mind out for what it desires).

Wheaton soon my friends. In the mean time, be a voyeur and watch what that slut Palladium does.

...

I miss my chartistry...