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Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

Silver Buck

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#81
Yeah I guess my rake would be more like it. So it looks like we are going to 18 something.
As long as the price stays within the channel, yeah... Let's see if we reach an RSI of 20.

Now for a quick breakfast shot of Bailey's in my morning coffee.



I'll try to get some drinks of Weekly and Monthly this weekend and see if I can make something of this charting stuff. Even if I'm way off of the mark, I do enjoy doing this kind of stuff.

It's much better than watching TeeVee or anything to do with the MSM.
 
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andial

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#83
Grabbed my morning sip of Bailey's and coffee, and I see the price is trying to peek out of channel.
I guess we can hope, the pessimist in me says we fail.
 

Silver Buck

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#84
I guess we can hope, the pessimist in me says we fail.
The optimist in me says it will continue to fall for a bit thereby giving me more of a chance to buy back in at sub $19. The Gin Bottle really doesn't care as long as the glass is never empty.
 

smooth

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#85

andial

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#86
Please tell us you went short brother andial.... please
No haven't gone short, last time i did that i lost 800 bucks in two days.
 

andial

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#88
Is why you went all Darth on us for a couple weeks???...800bucks? :D
No , I think the reason I went Darth was because I knew Silver was going to go down hard but I could not sell it because my brain froze. In other words my in-action caused a Darth reaction. You should have put me on ignore.
 

stonedywankanobe

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#89
No , I think the reason I went Darth was because I knew Silver was going to go down hard but I could not sell it because my brain froze. In other words my in-action caused a Darth reaction. You should have put me on ignore.
So what your sayin is....nevermind.:p I couldn't ignore it. I could not believe some of tha stuff... I think your brain freeze put me in a state of shock.:D
And G wasn't even around when you needed him most...that was the kicker right there.:rolleyes:
 

smooth

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#90
So what your sayin is....nevermind.:p I couldn't ignore it. I could not believe some of tha stuff... I think your brain freeze put me in a state of shock.:D
And G wasn't even around when you needed him most...that was the kicker right there.:rolleyes:
andial needs G about as much as a fly needs a spider... JMO






HUH HUM... no offense G, I like spiders..
 

Zed

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#91
Sell when you think you are a genius and life is good... buy when you are completely depressed and the thought of it makes you wonder if you aren't ready for adult diapers.

If it doesn't hurt it is probably a bad trade :cheerful:

Whip me baby...

Cover-Whipped-Cream-and-Other-Delights.jpg
 

andial

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#92
So what your sayin is....nevermind.:p I couldn't ignore it. I could not believe some of tha stuff... I think your brain freeze put me in a state of shock.:D
And G wasn't even around when you needed him most...that was the kicker right there.:rolleyes:
I'll say one thing about our friend Gcubed, he'll never deny you a bowl of soup.
 

Silver Buck

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#96
Silver, she is being such a tease!

We're having a bit of whiskey this morning with our coffee and breakfast.



She's been dogging it long enough, but...

DYODD and GLTA.

Those in the US have a happy and safe holiday. The rest of the world stay safe and keep your eyes and ears open.

And DON'T DRINK THE KOOL-AID!
 

Silver Buck

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Here's a straight shot of what I've been serving:



Now for a more exotic cocktail:



Not saying, just watching and pondering...

I need to find out how to do a screenvideo on my MacBook. It would be much easier for me to show how I build up these charts via video.
 

andial

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Oh my, $18.50 it is then i guess.

I hate this friggin metal!
 

savvydon

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I need to find out how to do a screenvideo on my MacBook. It would be much easier for me to show how I build up these charts via video.
I would be interested in seeing how you establish your initial points for channels. :thumbs_up:
 

Tinbox

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Here's a bit of Dragon's Mom (Gin, 7-Up, OJ, bit of Lime) to have with your evening meal. Nothing really new to see, just the chart filling up nicely.

What's your conclusion/prediction based on the chart? Is it predicting that silver should bottom around 20 rsi?
 

Silver Buck

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Yep, if 40 doesn't hold, the Commodity Masses bail on the commodity due to it not offering a short term return. There's better, and easier, fish to fry. 20 is when patience seems to wear thin and folks just have to pull the trigger.

However, speculators are always (in my opinion) looking for a quick flip and looking for over-bought and over-sold positions (one of the many things I've learned here over the last few years). This is where I not only use the Bollinger Bands, but also the RSI to determine 'Speculator Sentiment'. Because 'by golly - gotta make a buck today on something!'.

You see, it isn't what I believe, nor what the snake oil doctors want you to believe (they are selling subs and nothing more), it's what the specs believe, and they believe in TA.

Sure, if you are from the camp of 'Buy-buy-buy! Until I die-die-die!' camp, then none of this means a damn thing to the reader.

I'm not of that camp (but did come into Silver at $17.50 for the 'long haul').

The 'trend is your friend', and once I accepted that, I began studying various 'trendancies' (that's a Buck term, copyrighted, annotated, registered, and trademarked) to determine when a good buying or selling op was upon me.

"But Buck, we gotta know... is tomorrow the bottoms?"

According to my gin-addled chart (and yes, I am partaking of my beverage of choice, Dragon's Mom (yes, an inside story)) tomorrow would be a great time to buy (and I may drag in the one-hour window in which to buy - London drop, NY bounce), but...

"is this the bottoms?"

Question: How many others out there are 'pumping the bottom' in order to get others to buy in 'right now' to move the price up?

....

I am not hearing enough wailing 'woe is me - the end is near' and gnashing of teeth, and I'm not seeing enough blood in the streets. But then again, I have shunned all mass media and most alternative medias (too much spin with an agenda) and stick strictly with which way the leaf wind blows to dictate when I see a couple of trend points in which to build my charts from.

...

My gin-addled senses still detect too much of a 'wait and see' thing for the rest of the year.

However, once commodities have been liquidated to pay off financial obligations and for specs to preposition....

Meh - it's the Gin Bottle talking...

Don't mind the man behind the Bottle.
 

Silver Buck

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I happened upon an opportunity to do a 'Quick Gin' of Gold, just to see...



Some 'splainin' as to what I saw:



Now, I don't have to be the one calling the bottom to be right. Give me enough 'dumpers' whose words are considered 'golden' and the bottom can be called right here, right now, at $1215ish (USD).
 

Eat Beef

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All your lines are on the wrong side.

Let me explain. When the trend is down (as it is now, per the chart you're using, IE; timeframe and scale), SELLERS are in control. Therefore the trendline is on the TOP side of the candles/bars. It acts as a guide for technicians who are SELLERS to add to or initiate SHORT positions.

The lines on the BOTTOM (under the price) are only derivitives of the downtrend lines, and should only be used as a loose/weak guideline for SELLERS to exit shorts.

IOW, if you're picking a bottom via a trendline, you should be using a rising line, not a falling one.

Trendlines themselves are derivatives, using the wrong side is a derivative of a derivative.

Don't forget, the guys you're calling "specs" are playing with real money. They don't buy/sell because of an imaginary line on a chart, they buy/sell because the risk to reward of BETTING REAL MONEY is in their favor, which is a heck of a lot more complex than a straight line snapped from two points on a chart.




Once again, trying to be constructive, it's not my fault I hang out to much with cubed so I'm a grumpy notasoldashimbutwhois fart.:biggrin:
 

Silver Buck

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All your lines are on the wrong side.

Let me explain. When the trend is down (as it is now, per the chart you're using, IE; timeframe and scale), SELLERS are in control. Therefore the trendline is on the TOP side of the candles/bars. It acts as a guide for technicians who are SELLERS to add to or initiate SHORT positions.

The lines on the BOTTOM (under the price) are only derivitives of the downtrend lines, and should only be used as a loose/weak guideline for SELLERS to exit shorts.

IOW, if you're picking a bottom via a trendline, you should be using a rising line, not a falling one.

Trendlines themselves are derivatives, using the wrong side is a derivative of a derivative.

Don't forget, the guys you're calling "specs" are playing with real money. They don't buy/sell because of an imaginary line on a chart, they buy/sell because the risk to reward of BETTING REAL MONEY is in their favor, which is a heck of a lot more complex than a straight line snapped from two points on a chart.




Once again, trying to be constructive, it's not my fault I hang out to much with cubed so I'm a grumpy notasoldashimbutwhois fart.:biggrin:
You are being very constructive without being condescending, I need this.

I've been tossing out my charting into the winds to see which way it blows, hoping to find some sort of tail to help me balance and control my kite.

I'm not looking for any confirmation. I'm looking for a counterpoise.

I'm looking for the time to re-enter after selling off 75% of my 'play Silver' at $34.50ish (it's documented on this site).

Please, keep the input coming, and I'll do what I can to illustrate what I see (no matter how off the mark it may be).

I have a very thick skin, and nothing much to prove (I'd say nothing, but then I'd be lying...), just the need to hone my rough skills. And the only way I can do this is by hanging out my laundry for all to see.

Thanks,

Buck
 
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Silver Buck

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All your lines are on the wrong side.

Let me explain. When the trend is down (as it is now, per the chart you're using, IE; timeframe and scale), SELLERS are in control. Therefore the trendline is on the TOP side of the candles/bars. It acts as a guide for technicians who are SELLERS to add to or initiate SHORT positions.

The lines on the BOTTOM (under the price) are only derivitives of the downtrend lines, and should only be used as a loose/weak guideline for SELLERS to exit shorts.

IOW, if you're picking a bottom via a trendline, you should be using a rising line, not a falling one.

Trendlines themselves are derivatives, using the wrong side is a derivative of a derivative.

Don't forget, the guys you're calling "specs" are playing with real money. They don't buy/sell because of an imaginary line on a chart, they buy/sell because the risk to reward of BETTING REAL MONEY is in their favor, which is a heck of a lot more complex than a straight line snapped from two points on a chart.

Once again, trying to be constructive, it's not my fault I hang out to much with cubed so I'm a grumpy notasoldashimbutwhois fart.:biggrin:
Doing a bit of review, I do want to re-emphasize that I am looking to buy back in, and started this chart arc some time ago:



I did take into consideration the sentimental tops, and how the announcement of 'Moar QE!' skewed the charts (but not by much, and not much more than a day...).
 
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Silver Buck

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I was with you on the rest of your post but couldn't follow along on this point. Can you elaborate?
I did have a rising line...



It got busted, and then lost support:



As you can see, I was looking for an upward move, but failed to recognize the negative sentiment in the MACD/SMA.

Taking a look back some months, we can see where I was charting an upward trend, but we can clearly see how the downward trend busted right on through:



I am somewhat new at all of this (but have been 'at it' focusing on Metals for 3 years), but doesn't the RSI show a 'Double Top'?



Here's my latest charting:



The RSI may not get down to 20, but the over-sold sentiment (to me at least) is clear.

Now, what I was doing back in '10, was timing the London Dip with the NY Bounce to time my buys (yes, the charts are from '11, haven't found the old ones, yet... but the principle is still the same):



However, it seems I cannot bring up the same recent charts...

Odd...

Anyway, the Gin Bottle is empty, and I need to get a bit of sleep...

Let's see what the PoS brings us at the close tomorrow.

Cheers.
 

Silver Buck

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We're drinking our coffee straight today. Maybe I'll do a bit of Gin tonight, but for now...



We'll see if the Gin Bottle was correct that this is a near term bottom, or if it's merely talking out of its bottom.

I am keeping in mind that we do have Expiry approaching.

http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar

Will such dates have an influence?

*shrugs*
 
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Silver Buck

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Is this where Silver decides to quit lollygagging in channel and move up to greener pastures?



Or is she going to bed down for the rest of the year...

DYODD and GTLA

And remember, I'm just playing around with this stuff. Yes, I do use it for purchases and sales, but it is more of a hobby than anything. My business provides me with the necessary income to keep me housed and fed.

Now, where's that Gin Bottle.
 

Silver Buck

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Good morning folks. I have very little idea what the Gin Bottle is going on about, but it is insisting that things are going up from here. Perhaps it, like others, are tired of the steady downtrend and things are truly going to go up from here (just no idea how long, or how far at this point).

Yesterday morning, I looked at the recent uptrend and simply grabbed a couple of the most recent bottoms in which to draw uptrend lines (see two posts above). Keeping that angle I simply extended and copied that uptrend line and then compared it to recent uptrends bouncing off of that long bottom trend line. Why? The Gin Bottle isn't always forthcoming as to its reasons why, but it seems that it believes that humans, as a collective, tend to be a bit repetitive (not always exactly repeating itself, but doing something similar on a regular basis).

So, I spent a bit more time looking left and seeing if the up-trends tended to stay in similar channels, and it does appear that they do.



Now, can the Gin Bottle see a top down the road?

Hmmm...



Now, if things get to looking really good, perhaps, just perhaps...



And if things a bit wild and crazy...



Well, I don't know exactly what is going to happen (or even remotely). For all I know, the bottom may not be in, and the Gin Bottle isn't saying exactly what is going on in its mind. It keeps saying "Let's get to the bottom of this", but I think it's the Gin Bottle Bottom that it is talking about and not a Metal Bottom.

Then again, the Gin Bottle is empty at the moment, so perhaps we did hit the bottom.

Now, it's time for Bailey's in my coffee while I enjoy a delicious waffle (no, not slabbed and graded - well, perhaps I'll give it a Grade A).

GLTA and happy stacking.