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Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

Silver Buck

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Mornin' folks. Seems Silver wants to follow that down channel. Now the question is: How far down will she go?

I'll be spending some Quality Time with the Gin Bottle tonight and perhaps something will be figured out.



Happy Stacking
 

Silver Buck

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Just a bit of a drink for dinner, and the Gin Bottle is offering up a new line of...

Well, it's hard to say what the Bin Gottle offers at times.

Anyway, just watching to see if we are going to bounce off of that new trend line and perhaps ride it for a bit, or continue to plunge on down to the nethers of Andial's rake.



I know Options expire next week, and it is the holiday season, so who knows which way the PoS will blow.

Now, where's my Gin Bottle?
 

andial

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Hey Buck is it ok if i grab a little sleep on that couch over there?
 

andial

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Thanks! I won't snore.:Zzzz:
 

smooth

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The ticker shows gold and silver are in the green. Can I get a To The Moon?
 

Silver Buck

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Well, the scribblings were done pre-coffee, so take them for what they're worth. I added a couple of sideways trend lines, don't know if they'll fill or not, but with RSI looking to hold 40ish.



Happy Stacking, and keep the howling down.

Andial is still asleep there in the corner holding his rake tight.
 

Silver Buck

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Well, seems like I slept in a bit. Must be that winter hibernation instinct kicking in.

With the close of Silver for the week, I added another line to the chart just to see if the price will stay within a tight channel within the larger sideways channel.

Next week, I would put very little into what the Gin Bottle scribbles. It is the beginning of the festive season (also called 'Bowl Season). So pay no attention to the Buck behind the Gin Chart Curtains.



Happy Stacking
 

Silver Buck

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Sunday Sentimental Sharing

I want to share a post I did in another thread a few days ago about my sentiment about Silver. But first, a bit of sentimental background.

I've always had an interest in commodities, metals in general, Silver and Gold specifically. I always wished that I had the wherewithal to dive into metals 'back then', but never found the means to take the plunge. Finally, I decided to take the plunge (more to physically preserve a digital asset than anything else - it's a bit harder to take what's at the bottom of a lake vs something held digitally) at $17.50. The price had nothing to do with my entry point, just that I finally had the wherewithal to take the plunge.

Then I began doing study, and I can thank my LCS (a true brick and mortar long term establishment) with driving my research to the internet. How? I began asking questions about their opinions and what resources are available (having noticed the magazine rack that is now absent). The common answer? "To the internet!".

Why would a B&M retail place encourage walk in customers to go to the internet? I don't know, but anyway, that's how I found you miscreants.

Google brought me here.

One of the best things that could have happened to my metals world.

Anyway, during the Great Silver Run-up toward $50 (just a stop along the way to-the-moon) a user by the name of Jan Roos had bought all of the Snake Oil and drank all of the Kool-Aid and wanted someone to write up a pamphlet/flier/e-page/whatever to help him pump his Silver to the masses (looking to make as many quick flips with the stuff since it was moon-bound). I had expressed an interest and was 'this close' to writing the page for him (we had a brief conversation via PM about this), but before I was going to put my name behind such a work, I needed to do far more research than what I had been doing. Sure, all I had to do was pound out some good sounding words, phrases, clauses, and what-not and turn a quick profit for basically spouting the Moon-shot Party Line.

But I am not one to sell my integrity for any price.

So, I politely declined the gracious offer and began delving deeper with greater earnest than before. Why (since I wasn't writing the paper)? Because I've sensed shallow euphoria before and wanted to find a stable fulcrum in which to balance my decisions on not just the Silver market, but any market that I would choose to get into.

Also, being a bit bored while drinking Gin, studying up on markets in general and TA in particular gave my mind something to do.

One of the greatest bit of Snake Oil being sold during The Great Run-up was that everyone needed to get as much physical Silver as they possibly could because it was rarer than Gold and we were running out any day - get it while you can. I'm not one to believe everything that is told to me (ever since that bit about Santy Claws was found out to be a fraud) so I decided that I had to do some research about exactly where Silver comes from and how much is readily available and exactly what all it is used for.

First and foremost, it is an Industrial Metal. This means that it is being used up (which lends credence that we are running out). However, how much is permanently lost? How much can be recovered by recycling? And most importantly, are we truly using up more than we are pulling out of the ground?

How much is being pulled up out of the ground?

How much is there to be pulled up out of the ground?

Where was the supply coming from to meet the demand?

I don't have my well thought out and researched replies to these questions, but I do have a copy of my recent post concerning just where this supply comes from, and the answer is quite simple:

It is brought up out of the ground as surplus to other mining, a by-product of other metals.

Let that sink in for a moment.

...

"How much?" you ask?

Estimates run from 60%-80%.

Here's my cross-post (all maroon colored text are links - except for this one):

=========/

"Let's look at a few things:

Global Silver-Mining Trends

"It is believed that about one-third of all silver mined in the history of the world has come from Mexico. But even with such rich history, this country’s silver mineralization is nowhere near depleted. The miners continue to make big discoveries. And these discoveries have great economics as seen by 50%+ production growth over the last decade."

...

"China’s journey to #2 is the result of massive production growth, mainly via byproduct production from primary base-metals mines. Over the last 11 years its silver production has doubled..." (all emphases are mine)"

...

"Peru’s production is up 34% since 2001. And though its output has trended down a bit over the last few years, the mining companies have had great success renewing their reserves and making new discoveries. With the world’s largest reserve base (120k mt), by far, Peru is highly likely to revisit its 2009 all-time production high in the near future."

...

"Attributing to Russia’s nearly 300% bump in production is the restart of the massive Dukat mine and an increase in byproduct output from its large gold mines."

...

"Poland is another country where the bulk of its silver comes to market as a byproduct of primary base-metals mines. And nearly the entirety of its output comes from three massive copper mines..."

...

"A big chunk of Chile’s silver is a byproduct of its large copper and gold mines..."

...

"...the majority of the US’s silver these days is a byproduct of copper and gold mining..."

...

"...the vast majority of Kazakhstan’s silver output comes from byproduct base-metals production from a single large company..."

...

"Unfortunately many of the same things that plagued the US also hit Canada hard. And with primary silver mines now all but extinct..."

Conclusion to this article:

"One major takeaway we can gather from this information is that total output and/or growth rates don’t necessarily translate to opportunity for the miners. Some of these countries are host to geopolitical situations that all but block foreign investment. And some are producing silver solely as a byproduct, ultimately lacking geologically favorable primary silver deposits. These situations are not conducive to mining companies looking to directly leverage silver."

Let's check out some other sources:

SILVER (Data in metric tons of silver content unless otherwise noted)

"Domestic Production and Use: In 2011, the United States produced approximately 1,160 tons of silver with an
estimated value of $1.27 billion. Silver was produced as a byproduct from 35 domestic base- and precious-metal
mines
..."

...

"World Resources: Silver was obtained as a byproduct from lead-zinc mines, copper mines, and gold mines, in
descending order of production. The polymetallic ore deposits from which silver is recovered account for more than
two-thirds of U.S. and world resources of silver
....

Most recent silver discoveries have been associated with gold occurrences; however, copper and lead-zinc occurrences that contain byproduct silver will continue to account for a
significant share of future reserves and resources."

Silver as a By-Product No Joke for SLW

"...70% of silver production is as a by-product of other types of mining."

Tightening Production by Ted Butler

"Almost 70% of silver production derives as a byproduct from the mining of other metals."

The True Value of Silver

"Most of the silver produced on this planet is a by product of a primary mining operation.

...

With the price of silver being so low and the cost of mining so high, it is uneconomical to work a silver mine hence 80 percent of the silver extracted is a by product of other mining activities."

Silver - Ag

"...silver is mostly obtained as a byproduct in the refining of other metals.
World production of newly mined silver is around 17.000 tonnes per year, of which only about a quarter comes from silver mines. The rest is a byproduct of refining other metals."

Why Silver Is Grossly Undervalued and the Myth of the 'Primary Silver Mine'

"Any investor even modestly familiar with the red-hot silver sector will know that the majority of silver currently mined each year is produced as a byproduct of other mines (roughly 2/3 of all silver production)."

Visions Commodity - Silver

"There are more than 30 countries on 5 continents having silver mines, but the pure silver producers are few. 70% in mine production of silver is by-product of zinc, lead, copper, or gold."

Silver Wheaton

"Precious metals streaming allows Silver Wheaton to purchase, in exchange for an upfront payment, the by-product silver or gold production of a mine that it does not own or operate. The operating costs that Silver Wheaton pays for future production are pre-determined in the agreements, typically between US$4 to US$6 per ounce of silver and US$400 per ounce of gold produced, with a small inflationary adjustment in most contracts. This amount offsets our partners’ typical cost to produce an ounce of silver or gold."



Gin Bottle Conclusion:

Silver is brought up as slag and will be sold off for whatever can be gotten for it, simply to make room. Silver Wheaton has contracted with many mines (some for the life of the mine) to dispose of the junk.

There is far more Silver available than what most people have been led to believe by the pumpers (which also may be dumpers)."


============/

So, there you have it, it a rather large nutshell. Silver is some junk pulled up out of the ground due to other mining, and mines are glad to get rid of it for whatever they can get for it.

What does this mean for the future price of Silver, is it going to go up, down, sideways, topsy-turvy rollercoaster ride?

The Gin Bottle isn't saying, just that it will do all of those at times in the future.

In the mean time, I'm using Silver as a way to practice some TA and to have fun doing some charting. In about a couple of years, I'll actually put it to practice (once the Bottle says "It's time").

In the mean time, I'll continue to drop some scribbles on a chart and call it TA while enjoying a Gin or two (usually using that special recipe I call Dragon's Mom - inside joke).

And what would a morning post be without a bit of Gin Bottle goodness?

Hmmm... which chart to bring out...

I know, I was sitting at the bar the other morning having breakfast, and this very 'cheerful' guy was curious as to what I was doing with my laptop (I like having breakfast at a bar on the way to the shop - the atmosphere suits me, the service is great, and the breakfast about the best to be found) and he was trying to give me 'insider information' about Soy Beans being the next big play due to ethanol plants switching from Corn to Soy Beans, so I did a quick Gin Bottle chart on Monthly Soy Beans:



There's your chart of the morning.

Well, I didn't mean this post to be one of senseless rambling, but once I got started, I couldn't help myself.

I hope this has at least been a bit entertaining and perhaps has shed a bit of light on the Silver supply.

Happy Stacking.
 

andial

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Great post SB.


With the price of silver being so low and the cost of mining so high, it is uneconomical to work a silver mine hence 80 percent of the silver extracted is a by product of other mining activities."
Still thinking about this statement.
 

Silver Buck

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Well, a quick shot before going off to work.

While this is the last full week of the year, it really isn't a full week, so not really expecting much in the way of action.

...

Well, Silver action that is...

 

Silver Buck

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Good morning once again (or at least I hope it is a good one - if note... Meh...). Nothing really new to see today, just some more of that sideways action going on.

 

Silver Buck

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Nothing much to add today, and a quiet day is very quiet indeed.



I'm thinking about adding another indicator next year and am open to suggestions. I'm also open to other areas of study. While this Gin Bottling has been fun (and I fully intend on doing this for quite some time to come), I'm finding myself in need of more research material. There sure is plenty enough available on the internutz, but I would like to pick up a topic or two that any of you 3 or 4 that stop by on a regular basis that interests you.

I know Andial, Leafing 101 is on my list, but I won't be able to put that into practice for some time. What to study in the mean time?
 

andial

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I would like to see a chart on Chinese interest rates as it is becoming more obvious that Gold doesn't give a dam what is happening in the U.S. but is more interested in what is happening in China money rate wise.
 

Silver Buck

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Morning folks. Silver is giving us more of the same, little action while the world is involved in other things while the year winds down.

I've added a down channel and hidden those lighter green down-trend lines. Have no idea which way Silver is going to go, and the Gin Bottle isn't outright saying (something about getting to the bottom of things first).



Andial, I've started a bit of research on that China Interest Rate vs Gold Action. Not much available.

I did find this chart. Is this what you are looking for?



There are many other charts on that site covering interest rates vs gold price.

Source: http://greshams-law.com/2011/10/09/...te-chart-now-with-local-currency-gold-prices/

"Gresham's Law

Historical Commentary on Markets and Political Economy

Global Real Interest Rate Charts Updated for October 2011 (with local currency gold prices)

Real interest rates in the West remain in deep negative territory whereas many countries in the so-called ‘Developing world’ have real interest rates that seem to be headed higher. See below for our monthly global interest rate charts (now with local currency gold prices plotted alongside).

[Note: By 'real' interest rates, we mean the short-term inter-bank rate minus the year-on-year growth in the consumer price index.]"


Hope this helps.
 

Silver Buck

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...................................
View attachment 52648
Indeed, we do have our own preferred porn :cool:

For New Year's Eve I'm going to print out all of my charts and toss them across the bed and roll around on them.
 

Irons

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Indeed, we do have our own preferred porn :cool:

For New Year's Eve I'm going to print out all of my charts and toss them across the bed and roll around on them.
I tend to think in grids not charts.
 

andial

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Reason why Gold took a dump in June and December.

china.jpg
 

andial

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725196-System__Resources__Big_Image-824035.png

Feckin pisses me off that i was watching western rates like they mean something:mad: to the price of Gold.
 

Eat Beef

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Longer term the correlation between chicom rates and gold doesn't hold up, neither does it account for silver peaking before gold.

chinarepo.jpg

londonfix.gif

Maybe someone smarter than me can overlay the two?
 
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Longer term the correlation between chicom rates and gold doesn't hold up, neither does it account for silver peaking before gold.

View attachment 52666

View attachment 52667

Maybe someone smarter than me can overlay the two?
When did the Chicoms enter the gold market in earnest? What reason other than the Chicoms could silvers 21st century blow off top be attributed to?

Check back with y'all later. I gotsta go pick up some olive oil.
 

andial

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[QUOTELonger term the correlation between chicom rates and gold doesn't hold up, ][/QUOTE]

Agree, maybe a newbie trend.
 

andial

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neither does it account for silver peaking before gold.
True don't know why that happened. Silver did peak in early 2011 just like the Chinese stock market though.
 

Eat Beef

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I still don't see it.

Gold peaked in 11 along with Chicom rates, then they basically fell in tandem, with gold setting a new bottom while CR hit a short term spike.

IOW, I see the spike bottom aligns with the spike top in June, and a similar situation currently, but that's all I see, no real correlation.

Explain what I'm missing?
 

Silver Buck

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Morning. Had to reboot the computer, and it compressed my chart forcing the Gin Bottle to rebuild the layers, so your serving of charting had to be delayed a bit.



Not much to tell right now.

Am doing a bit of research on the Chinese interest rates. There is this I found by Tyler Durden:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ord-high-china-warns-big-chance-bank-failures

Haven't had any time to dig into it, but it does look to be of interest (see what I did there).

Some charts from there:

20131119_china_0.jpg

20131119_china1_0.jpg

Hopefully more to come later.

Happy Charting.
 

andial

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I still don't see it.

Gold peaked in 11 along with Chicom rates, then they basically fell in tandem, with gold setting a new bottom while CR hit a short term spike.

IOW, I see the spike bottom aligns with the spike top in June, and a similar situation currently, but that's all I see, no real correlation.

Explain what I'm missing?
If you look at these three items SLV X (us steel) and FXI (china stock market) they all peaked in early 2011 and they all bottomed (so far ) in June of 2013 when MAYBE China had to start changing it's tight money policy. I'm still thinking about it but take a look at these three items, the chart is the same pretty much since the 2011 tops. Go to a five year chart on each.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/SLV...zZWMDZ2V0cXVvdGVzYnRuBHNsawNtdWx0aV9xdW90ZQ--
 

Silver Buck

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Just a quick update of a weekly scribbling that the GB did about 3 weeks ago. Sorry for the cheesy looking overlay, but like I said, the computer compressed all of my homework and put all of the layers into one on each chart I was working on.



I do have 'study up China Interest Rates some more' on my To-Do list. However, I need to clean some things up with the comp and see about how to more effectively save layers on my chart in case of another homework eating episode first.

Happy Charting.
 

andial

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New theory i have spinning in my head SB. Over the last few years while the fed has been loose the PBOC has had to be tight to keep things in check. The fed being loose has helped "soft" assets like stocks and bonds but has done nothing for hard assets. Now that the fed is in supposed tight mode that will allow the PBOC to be loose. This will help hard assets as a loose China policy will be positive for natural resources. JMHO
 

Silver Buck

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Morning folks, not much new to had charting wise, just a new uptrend slope (albeit shallower) for the RSI.



Happy Charting.
 

Silver Buck

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Been sitting here at the shop, not feeling it to work on projects.

So, with a prompt from another thread mentioning $15 Silver in '14:

"...silver prices will continue to be driven primarily by the trend in gold prices. On top of this, weak European solar-panel sales will constrain growth in industrial demand for silver, suggesting that silver prices will average around $25.5/oz in 2013, followed by $20.75/oz in 2014. Should investors choose to exit silver ETPs, we could see prices drop more quickly to lows of as little as $20/oz in 2013 and $15/oz in 2014." (source of original story) Author: Geoff Candy Posted: Tuesday , 04 Jun 2013

I decided to some more scribbling (sorry 'Dial, I'll get to that China interest thing soonish...) using a chart from another site since my current one won't go back to '04, and it doesn't hurt to expand one's toolbox.



I'm going to stick with my current charting source for most things Gin Bottling (I like the look and the feel). However, I'll be checking out other sources of inspiration.

Speaking of inspiration, where's that Gin Bottle?

Happy Charting.