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Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

savvydon

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Been sitting here at the shop, not feeling it to work on projects.

So, with a prompt from another thread mentioning $15 Silver in '14:

"...silver prices will continue to be driven primarily by the trend in gold prices. On top of this, weak European solar-panel sales will constrain growth in industrial demand for silver, suggesting that silver prices will average around $25.5/oz in 2013, followed by $20.75/oz in 2014. Should investors choose to exit silver ETPs, we could see prices drop more quickly to lows of as little as $20/oz in 2013 and $15/oz in 2014." (source of original story) Author: Geoff Candy Posted: Tuesday , 04 Jun 2013

I decided to some more scribbling (sorry 'Dial, I'll get to that China interest thing soonish...) using a chart from another site since my current one won't go back to '04, and it doesn't hurt to expand one's toolbox.

:thumbs_up:
I'm going to stick with my current charting source for most things Gin Bottling (I like the look and the feel). However, I'll be checking out other sources of inspiration.

Speaking of inspiration, where's that Gin Bottle?

Happy Charting.
Dig the layout of the new chart, if not the place where it points to. Lots of information, accurately and neatly laid out. Many thanks for your ongoing efforts. :thumbs_up:
 

Silver Buck

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Very interesting line that orange one be. Happy New Year!



:cool1:
Indeed, quite interesting. I tend to ignore anything before The Great Correction, but since others lend credence to prices pre-TGC, I feel compelled to at least take a gander, and the Silver Goose looks like it may not be quite done cooking.

We shall see in the coming years.
 
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Indeed, quite interesting. I tend to ignore anything before The Great Correction, but since others lend credence to prices pre-TGC, I feel compelled to at least take a gander, and the Silver Goose looks like it may not be quite done cooking.

We shall see in the coming years.
On the bright side, I'd think that line would show rather firm support. ;)
 

Silver Buck

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On the bright side, I'd think that line would show rather firm support. ;)
It sounds like you are looking for a special type of bra....

Me, on the other hand, is looking for a type of athletic supporter, one that will see us through the coming nut-sack kicking...

...

If only I sold everything at $34.xx...
 

lightcycler

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If we break about $20.30 now I'm all in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2014 will be a beautiful year for my favorite PM I will mortgage the house!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Ahillock

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It is a good idea to drain the IRA anyways before Obama/Dems take it. But I digress
 

Silver Buck

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Happy New Year GIMers! Hope everyone made it safe and sound(ish). Myself, I went to bed early (well, fell asleep in the easy chair).

Now, onto a new year of charting.

Seems that Silver wanted to give us a bit of a shock with that nasty drop yester-morn. She did have a nice rebound though, which with that kind of drop out of band gives me an opportunity to look for a change in trend. It seems to me that I can build a nice new rake (orange lines) basically bouncing off of that green downtrend line (crazy how that drop bounced off of it).



Remember folks, this to me is just as much of an art form as it is rocket science; I'm not really good at either but I do enjoy dabbling. However, watching these charts and trends over time does give me (at times) a sense of fractals in art, math, and life science.

I have been checking out some screen video capture software (my current system is too old to use QT as such) and am currently trying out iShowU. It would make it easier to show how I look at things and what process I go through to choose which lines and scribbles to toss onto the chart. I really like using Seashore for charting; it gives me the flexibility that regular charting tools on charting sites do not (such as using layers to fade in and out trend lines, adding a chart onto a new layer, hiding those super-secret layers that are not for the general public). Personally, I prefer using text for explanations, but there are times that words simply get in the way of a good illustration.

Well, that is about enough rambling from me to start off the new year. Hope '14 is a joyful and prosperous one for you all.

Happy Charting.
 

andial

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a nice new rake (orange lines) basically bouncing off of that green downtrend line
Lets see how well this rake is made, looks promising.
 

Silver Buck

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Good morning GIMmers,

It's the first real day of the New Year, but I'm not expecting much of note and/or substance. Next week is the first full week and I'm figuring (in my own hack-a-chart way) that we'll get a better idea of which direction in the near term that Silver is going to go.

Here's a quick serving of Bailey's for today:



We have had some interesting price action, but again, it's the tail end of the holidays and the start of the New Year, so I'm not getting my rake and shovel out just yet. Let's see what next week brings.

Happy Charting

PS - what doing this type of charting has done is given me a bit of patience and appreciation of price movement and market sentiment.

Happy Stacking
 

savvydon

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Tip o the hat and bottle to ya, Mr Buck, for your hard work and public exploration. Looking for a little house cleaning here in 2014...:cheerful:
 

Silver Buck

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Tip o the hat and bottle to ya, Mr Buck, for your hard work and public exploration. Looking for a little house cleaning here in 2014...:cheerful:
To you and yours, and thanks goes to you and everyone else who stops by (even if they are just lurking).
 

Silver Buck

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Dig the layout of the new chart, if not the place where it points to. Lots of information, accurately and neatly laid out. Many thanks for your ongoing efforts. :thumbs_up:
I do like most of the features that this charting source gives me, but (for now) I'm going to have to leave out Volume since it does get in the way of my Gin Bottling.

Here's something I tossed together to see how quickly I can put this together on a daily basis. Once I get a system down, I may be able to do up a Gin Bottle as quickly as ever.

 

savvydon

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I do like most of the features that this charting source gives me, but (for now) I'm going to have to leave out Volume since it does get in the way of my Gin Bottling.

Here's something I tossed together to see how quickly I can put this together on a daily basis. Once I get a system down, I may be able to do up a Gin Bottle as quickly as ever.

Likin' the long look left. :thumbs_up:
 
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Mr. Buck Sir, May I suggest that you add a full Sto to your charts? Hell, I guess I suggested it! Just a thought. :fisheye:
 

Silver Buck

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Dat be da one. ;)

:thumbs_up:
Here's another quickie from my 'go-to' source (just to compare the one to the other).



Do you have any upper/lower band levels you prefer charted out?

And I do realize that this chart doesn't have Full STO (option does not seem to be available).
 
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savvydon

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Mt understanding is that the full Sto is a fully customizable version of the slow Sto. However, if you are used to using full Sto with the standard 14 and 3 day parameters then it is essentially identical to slow Sto.
 

Silver Buck

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Last trading day of the holiday season. Thoughts of this week's action in the chart.



I often find myself over-coaching my charts. I should probably just let things ride out a bit before looking for reasons to make trend changes. I'm having some intuitive doubts about that Orange Channel I drew early (but it does make for good practice and interesting viewing).

Here's another chart from the other site I've been working with (without any Gin Bottling).



Concerning STO: I'll be doing some studying at StockCharts - Stochastic Oscillator (link) this weekend.

Excerpt:

"Introduction

Developed by George C. Lane in the late 1950s, the Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. According to an interview with Lane, the Stochastic Oscillator "doesn't follow price, it doesn't follow volume or anything like that. It follows the speed or the momentum of price. As a rule, the momentum changes direction before price." As such, bullish and bearish divergences in the Stochastic Oscillator can be used to foreshadow reversals. This was the first, and most important, signal that Lane identified. Lane also used this oscillator to identify bull and bear set-ups to anticipate a future reversal. Because the Stochastic Oscillator is range bound, is also useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels."

That's enough Bin Gottling for this morning.

Happy Charting
 

andial

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I'm looking at the top Bollinger band hoping silver hits it and forces it up, that's all i know SB.
 

Silver Buck

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Completely different type of chart today.

I had someone bring up the topic of 'The Typical Year-end Beatdown' and decided to do a bit of research just to see how often the PoS was 'beat down' during the month of December.



Dec Down - 18
Dec Up - 28
Dec Even - 1

This makes sense since the price of Silver is up around 1200% or so over the last 4+ decades.

January number came about about the same:

Down - 16
Up - 29
Even - 1

My advice when it comes to listening to the Internet: Do NOT buy into the hype (especially if the source of the hype is trying to sell you a subscription) and do a bit of your own research to verify the claims.

Happy Charting
 
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Irons

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Do NOT buy into the hype (especially if the source of the hype is trying to sell you a subscription)
I have found being able to spot and avoid hype in any form has made my life much more calm and simple.

That ability annoy's the hell out of others though. Good! :cheerful:

Everything is hyped from cell phones to bitcoins nowdays, anything worth having is still available when the hype dies down.
 
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Silver Buck

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I have found being able to spot and avoid hype in any form has made my life much more calm and simple.

That ability annoy's the hell out of others though. Good! :cheerful:

Everything is hyped from cell phones to bitcoins nowdays, anything worth having is still available when the hype dies down.
I fixed the 'hype' statement.

That's what I get for posting without either Coffee or Gin.
 

Silver Buck

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Short and sweet today folks (and nothing much new anyways to talk about). I was going to do some more Indicator research and share the matters here, but Mother Nature decided to bring down her friend from the North and visit for a bit, leaving quite the mess. I like to keep up with the snow as it comes down (easier to move), but yesterday was more urgent than normal with temps projected to plunge to -13 (and yes, that would be Fahrenheit). I finished up my last pass this morning at 7 am when it was a balmy 18.

It's already down to 9...

Anyway, here's some Gin, 7-Up, OJ, and a bit of Lime to start your week off:



Happy Stacking
 

Silver Buck

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After a couple of days of some of the most brutal winter events I've been through (matches Winter of '83, but not Blizzard of '78) I'm ready to go to work, but not until this afternoon when the temp gets out of negative double digits (and we're talking ºF for you non-Imperials). I so wanted a beast of a snow thrower, but my basic blower (we typically don't get quite that much snow around here) was able to do a fine job and between the two of use we were able to keep up with the mess quite nicely before the temp plummeted and the wind picked up.

Anyway, enough of me and more of the Gin Bottle.

I've been pondering if that Orange Channel is for real or not, so I went and looked to see if the trend lines would come close to matching up (Hawkeye taught us to look left and not just right). Sure enough, I was able to see a match, one that was just before the recent correction (and the Gin Bottle is not projecting another correction, just looking to verify 'sentiment'...).



As far as the un-Gin Bottled chart goes, the site isn't loading up the data, so we'll have to make do with our standard fare of Gin this morning. If the site serves up the data later, I'll serve us a chart later.

Happy Charting
 

Silver Buck

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Good Morning GIMmers (and assorted Lurkers),

Hopefully things will be back to normal(ish) now that Arctic Canada is done visiting. It was a nice change of pace and scenery, but we don't want your welcome wore out.

Anyway, according to my chart hackings, we are about due for a course change. Which way? Pick a channel (there are three to choose from at the moment).



So, which way will the Spot Winds blow? Sideways? Upward? Downward? It does seem to be trending up, but...

Is there anything else we can look to for guidance?

How about the Weekly?



Sorry Brother Dial, but it still looks down to me.

Now that I figured out what my error was (it pays to correctly type in each character of a commodity symbol...), I can provide that more detailed chart:



So, there you have it. Do with it as you best see fit.

Happy Charting
 

andial

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Silver Buck

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andial

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Thanks SB, Could you do it with US Steel? (X)
 

andial

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Yes x is the laggard here (union shop). This stock has to continue to go up before PM's rally. JMHO

All these steel stocks did not surpass there 2008 highs and started breaking down in early 2011, us PM investors should have taken notice back then.
CMC NUE STLD and AA have to lead. JMHO
 
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Yes x is the laggard here (union shop). This stock has to continue to go up before PM's rally. JMHO

All these steel stocks did not surpass there 2008 highs and started breaking down in early 2011, us PM investors should have taken notice back then.
CMC NUE STLD and AA have to lead. JMHO
That give credence to the 'industrial' metal argument, no?
 

andial

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That give credence to the 'industrial' metal argument, no?
Yes Gcubed my friend. Me as a silver holder should have seen industrial metal prices in the 2009 to 2011 rebound did not even come close to their 2008 highs and were heading down to test previous lows. Silver got hyped in the 2011 high but had to follow in the end the downdraft other industrial metals were caught up in. Now industrial metals hopefully will continue to rebound from their June 2013 lows.