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Buck's Gin Bottling - Chart Analysis

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Yes Gcubed my friend. Me as a silver holder should have seen industrial metal prices in the 2009 to 2011 rebound did not even come close to their 2008 highs and were heading down to test previous lows. Silver got hyped in the 2011 high but had to follow in the end the downdraft other industrial metals were caught up in. Now industrial metals hopefully will continue to rebound from their June 2013 lows.
My friend 'Dial, I think that the economy must first cease sucking for that to happen. JMHO. :cry_smile:
 

andial

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My friend 'Dial, I think that the economy must first cease sucking for that to happen. JMHO. :cry_smile:
Dissagree, first the Chinese stock market has to cease sucking. SB could you do one more overlay on top of that excellent one with cmc x nue and stld but also add in fxi?
 

Silver Buck

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Silver vs NUE, CMC, STLD, X, FXI

Dissagree, first the Chinese stock market has to cease sucking. SB could you do one more overlay on top of that excellent one with cmc x nue and stld but also add in fxi?
Sure thing.

 

andial

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Do you see how the steel stocks are chugging along since June, silver tried to get at also but has failed and FXI gave it a shot but has dived in the last few week SB? Can you post a chart beginning 2013 to present with those same stocks + silver? Sorry to be a pain in the arse like you know who.
 

Silver Buck

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Do you see how the steel stocks are chugging along since June, silver tried to get at also but has failed and FXI gave it a shot but has dived in the last few week SB? Can you post a chart beginning 2013 to present with those same stocks + silver? Sorry to be a pain in the arse like you know who.
No problem. The practice is helping me out.



My Bin Gottling and unprofessional hacking take on the movement of the PoS vs Steel Stocks.

Steel stocks chugging along reinforces my stance that Silver is now truly nothing more than a byproduct that is drug up from the ground due to industrial metal mining. As industrial metal mining increases, so does the amount of Silver ore that is brought up. The mines can't simply just let the stuff pile up. Throwing a tarp over it doesn't make it go away either. So, the stuff has to be sold off for whatever they can get for it (Silver Wheaton had some pretty good foresight in this matter). With the increased supply of Silver ore and a stable/flat Industrial demand for Silver (Eagles don't count as Industrial) the price of Silver must go down.

Perhaps I'll go into greater depth this Sunday on my Gin Bottle's take on supply and demand of Silver. I've done this type of study a few times and it would be great to consolidate and archive the junk here. I just need to remember where the Gin Bottle left the stuff.
 

savvydon

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Wow that last chart really makes dial's point as to how much silver has sucked compared to steel since June.
 

andial

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Great chart Bucko! Just what i have been looking at the last six months there. You see how they all started off from the gate in late June (Zeds low gold call) but silver and fxi have faded.
 

andial

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Wow that last chart really makes dial's point as to how much silver has sucked compared to steel since June.
That's what i've been getting at savvydon.
 

andial

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But is there any reason why the two metals SHOULD correlate?
Well let's start with SB's chart in post #244.
Starting in 2003 they all take off continuing to rise until 2008 so there is correlation. Then they all crash until early 2009, correlation. Then they all rebound with silver leading the way only thing is the steel stocks stall out and do not confirm the silver rally is real, non correlation. Now that steel stocks are picking up again my theory is yes that should bring silver with it, correlation found..
 

Silver Buck

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Great chart Bucko! Just what i have been looking at the last six months there. You see how they all started off from the gate in late June (Zeds low gold call) but silver and fxi have faded.
Glad I could help.

While I still really like to use CommodityCharts.com (since it gives me a standard size chart for easy Gin Bottling), I'm really starting to appreciate TraderView.com's charts and their flexibility. I will still continue to do my trend lines using an image editing software due to its flexibility.

And all of that is free.

I'm getting pretty close to selecting a screen video capture software so I can show folks exactly what I use and how I go about it. I'm thinking videos of 3-5 minutes should do just fine. I'll probably start a YouTube channel for video hosting. I'm open for suggestions though as far as videos and a video hosting site. Why I'm strongly leaning toward YouTube is because they load up here so well.
 

savvydon

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Glad I could help.

While I still really like to use CommodityCharts.com (since it gives me a standard size chart for easy Gin Bottling), I'm really starting to appreciate TraderView.com's charts and their flexibility. I will still continue to do my trend lines using an image editing software due to its flexibility.

And all of that is free.

I'm getting pretty close to selecting a screen video capture software so I can show folks exactly what I use and how I go about it. I'm thinking videos of 3-5 minutes should do just fine. I'll probably start a YouTube channel for video hosting. I'm open for suggestions though as far as videos and a video hosting site. Why I'm strongly leaning toward YouTube is because they load up here so well.
Sounds awesome! :beerglass:
 

savvydon

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Well let's start with SB's chart in post #244.
Starting in 2003 they all take off continuing to rise until 2008 so there is correlation. Then they all crash until early 2009, correlation. Then they all rebound with silver leading the way only thing is the steel stocks stall out and do not confirm the silver rally is real, non correlation. Now that steel stocks are picking up again my theory is yes that should bring silver with it, correlation found..
I see that prior to the 2008 crash they all correlated well, with silver lagging the steel stocks somewhat. Perhaps this is an acknowledgement that the steel stocks correlate more closely with economic boom. The 2011 run up of silver happened more or less in isolation of the steel stocks. Perhaps it represented an awakening among a portion of the public as to the role of PMs in a flawed economy. The subsequent moon shot was an 'overcorrection', and we have been experiencing the correction from that ever since. Perhaps now that that has occurred we will come back to a situation where steel and silver are in lock step on a steady upward march?

I guess I wonder if the correlation is do to manufacturing reasons, economic ones, or perhaps something else I haven't identified?
 

Silver Buck

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Jan 9, '14 Gin Bottling

Well, it does seem that the Orange channel actually has some substance, but for how long? I have no idea, but the Gin Bottle indicates that a change is due in a few days.

We shall see.

First, the typical serving of Gin:



Not much has changed, which strengthens the Gin Bottle's ego of thinking it just may be all that and a twist of Lime.

Next, the plain chart minus the Bollinger Bands and Volume, but Full Stochastic added.



The chart is not of March '14 contracts, but from the price of Silver over the course of decades. I've been leaving that tab open due to the ability to look back in time and look at price action and indicators easily. There is no sense in duplicating too much between the two charts. Some duplication is needed in order to get a sense of relativity - such as the RSI (my standard Indicator for a sense of Overbought/Oversold).

Down the road I plan on highlighting an 'Indicator of the Week' just for my own study and practice and general enlightenment. In the mean time, you all will will have put up with the Gin Bottle's general chart hacking and slashing.

Happy Charting
 

Silver Buck

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Nothing much new today, but the day is still young.



Still waiting for that turning point.

Here's a weekly chart:



See you all tomorrow.

Happy Charting
 

andial

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Well we got a pop out of the weak jobs number, let's see if it holds.
 

andial

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Interesting that both Silver and FXI are rallying today.
 

andial

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Silver just wanted to jump up off of that Orange rail.

Any idea why FXI is so happy?
Can't really say, just know that the Chinese stock market has had pretty good correlation with silver lately.
 

andial

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Those steel stocks are strong compared to the stock market in general today also.
 

savvydon

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Nice charts. You could certainly make an argument that a base appears to be being built with silver right now. The bollinger bands are starting to narrow on that second chart. Looking left it seems that the last couple of times in the past few years that that has happened there has been an upside break out. Generally the down side break outs seem to be during times of greater volatility. Certainly no guarantee of what is to come, just a little food for thought to go with the gin.
 

Silver Buck

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Thanks Savvy, but it seems I posted the wrong chart. This is the one I wanted to post:



That's what we get when I was in a hurry.

Glad that the one was of use and it does appear to be building a base. However, looking back at a chart I did up a bit ago...



That Orange line... it disturbs me.

I can only imagine what it is doing to Brother Andial.
 

Silver Buck

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Good Morning GIMers,

I don't know about you, but I'm enjoying a break in the weather (even though it gave me a bit of flooding Sat morn).

Nothing much new with Silver on the standard chart:



I noticed that 'Moon Phases' was available as an Indicator on the other chart. So, just for Moon Grins, I decided to give it a go:



Funny how the New Moon corresponds with a price above the 9 Day Moving Average and the Full Moon corresponds with the price below (with a couple of exceptions).

Who'd a thunk?

Happy Stacking
 

savvydon

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Funny how the New Moon corresponds with a price above the 9 Day Moving Average and the Full Moon corresponds with the price below (with a couple of exceptions).
Lovin' the moon cycle angle. :thumbs_up:

Sure looks like buying at full moon and selling at new moon could net you a few lunars. ;)
 

andial

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Tonight is a full moon, the 30th is the new moon. Someone ought to tell Gcubed about this, right?