• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
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Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

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REALIST NEWS - what happens when the BIG Crypto players come back from vacation 1st week January?
jsnip4


Published on Dec 28, 2017
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: December-28-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Direction of the US dollar will be the key. US dollar Index is on the verge of a technical breakdown. Gold, copper and silver are on the verge of a technical breakout. People are going to flock back to gold and silver investing once they fall off the cliff of crypto currency trading. Do not write off gold and silver.
 

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Ira Epstein's Morning Flash Update 12 28 2017
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 28, 2017
 

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Gold, Silver & Ripple XRP 2018
Junius Maltby


Published on Dec 28, 2017
Gold and Silver continue to perform! Oil up - USD down. Metals are looking at a strong entry into 2018 with serious momentum. USD has some headwinds and pressure with more rate hikes etc. XRP Ripple is the only Crypto I believe in at this point, with a small footing in ADA Cardano. BTC is slow and expensive. I believe XRP will see $5 in 2018.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 12 28 2017
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 28, 2017
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 12 28 2017
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 28, 2017
 

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Jim Rickards (next speaker) Jim Willie - Oil Prices, Petro Yuan And Petro Dollar
old radio


Published on Dec 28, 2017
Jim Rickards is a lawyer, investment banker and economist with over thirty years’ experience in capital markets. He is currently Chief Global Strategist at Meraglim. He advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance, and served as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. A frequent guest on financial news programs, Rickards is also the author of The New York Times bestselling novels Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and The Death of Money, as well as The New Case for Gold (2016) and The Road To Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis (2016).

Jim Willie is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics, and his career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Jim operates a free website called Golden Jackass.
 

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Trump Administration Rolls Back Offshore Safety Rules Put In Place After Deepwater Horizon

December 29, 2017 by Bloomberg


The Deepwater Enterprise conducts operations to mitigate the effects of the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill, May 23, 2010. U.S. Coast Guard Photo

The Production Safety Systems Rule, which the Trump administration is planning to roll back, addresses safety and pollution prevention equipment, subsea safety devices and safety device testing for the production of oil and gas resources on the U.S. outer continental shelf (OCS).


By Catherine Traywick (Bloomberg) — The Trump administration is rolling back offshore drilling rules put in place after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster killed 11 workers and spewed millions of barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

President Donald Trump in April ordered Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke to review a raft of Obama-era safety rules that sought to curb accidents and pollution by oil and gas drillers operating in U.S. waters. The agency on Thursday proposed several changes to those regulations, including scrapping a requirement that operators certify through a third party that their safety devices are functioning properly.

The changes will save companies at least $288 million over 10 years, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

Related Story: U.S. Issues Tough New Safety Rules for Offshore Drilling (2016)

“By reducing the regulatory burden on industry, we are encouraging increased domestic oil and gas production while maintaining a high bar for safety and environmental sustainability,” agency Director Scott A. Angelle said in a statement.

President Obama put the safety rules in place late last year, after six years of analysis following the 2010 BP Plc oil spill, in which a well blew out in the Gulf of Mexico. The proposed changes include revisions to safety system design requirements and equipment failure reporting requirements.

Environmentalists blasted the move, saying it put oceans and wildlife at risk.

“By tossing aside the lessons from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Trump is putting our coasts and wildlife at risk of more deadly oil spills,” Miyoko Sakashita, director of the oceans program at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement. “Reversing offshore safety rules isn’t just deregulation, it’s willful ignorance.”

© 2017 Bloomberg L.P.

Filed Under: News Tagged With: bsee, deepwater horizon

http://gcaptain.com/trump-administr...ore-safety-rules-put-place-deepwater-horizon/
 

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Gold Breaks $1300 & Silver $17 LIVE
Junius Maltby


Streamed live 4 hours ago
IT CUTS OUT AND COMES RIGHT BACK!! Live look at precious metals rally with Silver smashing $17 and Gold breaking through $1300. Join the Junius Maltby channel for a morning LIVE with EU friends in the house!
 

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A Gold & Oil Backed Cryptocurrency
Silver Fortune


Published on Dec 29, 2017
Would you invest in the crypto? I didn't think so.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 12 29 2017
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 29, 2017
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 12 29 2017
Ira Epstein


Published on Dec 29, 2017
 

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farm talk sunday the 31st
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Dec 31, 2017
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
 

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2018 Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin & Liberty | David Morgan
SilverDoctors


Published on Dec 31, 2017
https://sdbullion.com
http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

Top silver expert David Morgan tells Silver Doctors his 2018 forecast for the silver and gold markets.

Looking back at 2017, Morgan says he’s most surprised by the interest in the cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin rose about 1,300 percent. Gold and silver’s gains of 14 percent and four percent pale in comparison.

2018 will be a better year for the metals, Morgan says, led by gold. He sees cryptocurrency space similar to the dot com bubble.
 

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FATAL BLOW TO THE PETRO-DOLLAR COMING INTO VIEW IN 2018 | Jim Willie
FinanceAndLiberty.com


Published on Dec 31, 2017
The U.S. Dollar is not ruling the seas of global commerce anymore. In 2018, non-Dollar platforms will continue the Dollar’s decline, Dr. Jim Willie tells Silver Doctors.

The Dollar has been the world reserve currency for decades, but the increase of non-Dollar trade is threatening the Dollar’s dominance.

FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
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DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this video are not necessarily of "Finance and Liberty" or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.
 

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Gerald Celente -NEW- BIG PREDICTIONS FOR 2018 (Gold, Cryptocurrency, Dollar, Oil)
old radio


Published on Dec 31, 2017
EP -1 Denis Gartman

Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist and founder of The Trends Research Institute. He is the author of the national bestseller Trends 2000: How to Prepare for and Profit from the Changes of the 21st Century and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter. Gerald Celente is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “think for yourself,” observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends for what they are – not for the way he wants them to be. Gerald Celente has earned his reputation as “The most trusted name in trends” by accurately forecasting hundreds of social, business, consumer, environmental, economic, political, entertainment, and technology trends.
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 01/01
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/01/links-1118.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 01/01
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TBP - 10 New Year’s Day Reads 01/01
http://ritholtz.com/2018/01/new-years-day-reads-2/

CWS - Morning News: January 1, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/01/morning-news-january-1-2018.html

MtM - The Past is Not Passed: 2017 Spills into 2018 01/01
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/01/the-past-is-not-passed-2017-spills-into.html

SA - Weighing The Week Ahead: What Could Derail Financial Markets In 2018? 01/01
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134663-weighing-week-ahead-derail-financial-markets-2018
 

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J. D. Alt: The New Poverty
Posted on December 30, 2017 by Yves Smith

By J. D. Alt, author of
The Architect Who Couldn’t Sing, available at Amazon.com or iBooks. Originally published at New Economic Perspectives.


We define poverty, I suppose, as that living condition which is unable to acquire enough dollars to purchase some, or most, of the basic necessities of life. It also seems to be an accepted notion that a certain amount of “poverty” is a necessary condition of our modern market economy—that a certain segment of the population will always be “unemployable” by the profit-oriented business community, either because they lack skills or because the business community simply does not need their services in order to generate its profits. Nobody really knows what to do with these “unneeded” people. We talk about “retraining” them—but there is no guarantee the profit-seeking business community will need them even with their newly acquired skills. In the meantime, these “unneeded” people don’t know what do with themselves either. This is, perhaps, the biggest problem of all—though I will not, in this short essay, go into the details of that (except to say that it is contributing to a tragedy that is now disrupting the lives of too many of us). The point is this: It is time to begin imagining specific, concrete solutions to what is becoming a fundamental dilemma of our time.

Imagine, for example, that every American citizen over the age of 16 can choose to earn a living-wage in exchange for providing a useful service to their local or regional community. Imagine that every local community has a free health and pharmacy clinic (in conjunction with a free methadone and counseling center)—where some of the employees are the living-wage earners. Imagine further that every local community has a housing co-op system (built in part by some of the living-wage earners) that makes available—to every family that needs it—a basic dwelling unit that is warm, dry, well-ventilated, and which provides for cooking, bathing, sleeping, and family gathering. Imagine that every local community has at least one community garden and rookery (managed by some of the living-wage earners) which grows, harvests, and processes vegetables, fruits, eggs, cheese—and perhaps fish—for local consumption. Imagine that every local community has at least one pre-school day-care (manned at least in part by some of the living-wage earners) which provides, free of charge, a safe, early child-hood learning environment between the hours of 6 A.M. and 6 P.M. Imagine that every local community has a system of retirement co-housing villages (built and staffed, in part, by the living-wage earners).

Imagine, in other words, replacing what we now define as “poverty” with another kind of living condition—we might call it “community subsistence.” No one, of course, is required to participate in any of its services. Everyone has the option of providing their skills and talents, instead, to the profit-oriented markets—to earn income far exceeding a living-wage, to collect profits from entrepreneurial ventures and financial stratagems, to build and own grand houses filled with exquisite furnishings and art, to eat imported foods prepared by celebrity chefs, to seek medical care from the most renowned clinics, to spend retirement jetting between a New York City penthouse and a Bahamian mega-yacht. Everyone has the option, in other words, to pursue a living condition defined by some level of wealth and opulence, but no-one need fall below the living condition of “community subsistence.” The market economy, in other words, is not replaced with “communism” or “socialism” (a seriously bad idea no one here is advocating) but operates on a level that floats above them.

Or, perhaps, the market economy does not “float” above the “community subsistence,” but grows from it like a plant grows from the soil. This would be a more accurate—and useful—framing for the simple reason that all of the living-wage earners living in the condition of “community subsistence” (perhaps a significant portion of the national population?) would also be consumers of many of the products and services provided by the profit-oriented economy. They would buy shoes and clothes, hamburgers and i-tunes. They would be, in other words, an important segment of the market economy’s market. When you think about it, such a relationship—between a “community subsistence” population of living-wage earners and a profit-oriented market economy—such a relationship may well prove to be the only way to maintain a functioning economy as we move forward into the paradox of the age of robotics and artificial intelligence: The population of “unneeded” and “unemployed” people grows ever larger while AI robots insist on their annoying habit of never wanting to go shopping.

The good news is that this relationship, and the “solution” it provides, is easily attainable in our brave new age of modern fiat-money—if we would simply grasp the reality of how it works. Let’s hope 2018 is the year our political system begins to figure that out.

This entry was posted in Free markets and their discontents, Guest Post, Income disparity, Macroeconomic policy, Politics, Social policy on December 30, 2017 by Yves Smith.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/12/j-d-alt-new-poverty.html
 

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Want to Know What’s BETTER THAN BITCOIN or GOLD? | Bix Weir
Reluctant Preppers


Published on Jan 1, 2018

What are the real driving forces behind Bitcoin’s volatile price? Why haven’t gold & silver participated so far in this dramatic action? What are we most likely to see in 2018 for crypto-currencies vs. gold & silver? Will the central banks and governments be able to shut cryptos down? How can ordinary people position themselves to survive and thrive in the transition from our risky debt-bubble to the next generation system?

Bix Weir, founder of RoadToRoota.com, returns to Reluctant Preppers to reveal his prediction on whether gold vs. silver will perform dramatically better in the coming system, and why he expects ONE SPECIFC CRYPTO to outperform going forward..(Hint: It’s not BitCoin!) Don’t miss this thought-provoking journey into what’s most likely to come next!

==================================
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REALIST NEWS - Australian Banks Reportedly Freeze Accounts Of Bitcoin Users
jsnip4


Published on Jan 1, 2018
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...
Join Coinbase to get into the Crypto game: https://www.coinbase.com/join/529f2c1...
Trade Cryptos LIKE A BOSS: http://www.cryptosclass.com

Where do I buy Silver from?
https://sdbullion.com/jsnip4

http://www.jmbullion.com/?utm_source=...

http://www.realistnews.net

DISCLAIMER: WHILE I SPEAK ABOUT CRYPTOCURRENCIES, TOKENS, PRECIOUS METALS, AND OTHER "MARKETS". I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER AND I DO NOT CHARGE ANYONE FOR THESE YOUTUBE VIDEOS I PRODUCE EVERY DAY. THESE TYPES OF VIDEOS ARE BASED UPON MY OPINION ONLY. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN TRADING AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES.
 

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US Bank Threatens To Close Account Over Coinbase Transactions
PastorDowell


Published on Jan 1, 2018
 

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Danielle DiMartino Booth – 2018 - Inflation and Deflation Simultaneously
Greg Hunter


Published on Jan 1, 2018
Former Fed insider Danielle Booth says, along with a “bond market debacle,” the world will see inflation right along with it. Booth explains, “Look at lumber prices, look at the cost of packaging, plastics, raw materials, the producer price index . . . is at a six year high right now. It’s called the mother of all margin squeezes. Companies are suffering. We have inflation. We have very real inflation, and it is hitting corporate America between the eyes. We have seen inflation happening, and we continue to see it happening . . . Rental inflation is off the scale. . . . Inflation is up for 2018, and it has been up. We can have deflation and inflation at the same time. If all of this debt that has built up, especially for households, if they are allocating more of their income to servicing debt, then they have fewer dollars to spend on other things. So, you are going to have deflation and inflation at the same time.”

What does the regular guy on the street do? Booth says, “Figure out a way to have exposure to precious metals. Put your bubble vision on mute. You do not have to be invested in the market. That is a fallacy. Take what you have and pay down your debts.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth.

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Welcome 2018: Asian Markets Hit All Time Highs, Europe Slides As Euro Surges


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/02/2018 - 07:05


U.S. equity futures are higher in the first trading session of 2018 offsetting Friday's last hour sharp drop, as Asian stocks roar to new all time highs, while a surging euro which has rallied near to a 3 year high thanks to the sliding dollar, which in turn dropped to a 3 month low, pressured European stocks across the board. WTI crude oil prices retreated from a 2-1/2 year high despite initial upside as a result of the Iran violence. Treasuries fell, while gold extended a three-week rally.





Sentiment was also helped by news that North Korea had offered an olive branch to South Korea, with Kim Jong Un saying he was “open to dialogue” with Seoul.

European stocks inched lower on the first trading day of the new year, extending a losing streak that trimmed 2017 gains last week, while the euro rises to $1.2035, a level not seen since September. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 0.5% while the euro gained as much as 0.5% to $1.208, flirting with September peak. As a result, the exporter-heavy DAX was the most hit among European benchmarks, down 1% and losing ground for fifth session. Europe's auto sector index down 2%, hit by strengthening euro as well as by bleak outlook from Hyundai, and a drop in French new car registrations: Lufthansa, BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler were among the biggest decliners.

European bonds likewise started off the year on the wrong foot, with yields rising following strong inflationary signals from today's EU manufacturing PMIs and the latest German CPI. Of note, Germany's 10y yields on course to 0.50%.



Also of note: with the start of 2018, ECB QE resumes at a slower pace of €30 billion per month for nine months. The reduced purchases in 2018 means that net supply of EGBs will be almost flat, strongly contrasting with deeply negative net supply in previous years, driving 10y bund yield to 0.85%, according to Socgen.

Overnight, the ECB's Mersch has warned against too slow an exit from expansionary monetary policy, stating that current policy risks undermining the Euro Area's 'culture of saving'. Meanwhile, ECB's Coeure said that he sees “a reasonable chance” the ECB's PSPP will not be extended again when it expires in September.

A breakdown of today's Eurozone PMIs, which printed at the highest level on record:
  • Eurozone Markit Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 60.6 vs. Exp. 60.6 (Prev. 60.6)
  • German Markit/BME Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 63.3 vs. Exp. 63.3 (Prev. 63.3)
  • French Markit Manufacturing Final PMI (Dec) 58.8 vs. Exp. 59.3 (Prev. 59.3)
  • Italian Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 57.4 vs. Exp. 58.6 (Prev. 58.3)
  • Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 55.8 vs. Exp. 56.4 (Prev. 56.1)
"Forward-looking indicators bode well for the new year," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit which compiled the manufacturing data, pointing to a near record pace of new orders and job creation.

Earlier, Asian stocks showed no concerns as they blasted off to new all time highs to greet the new year, supported by strong Chinese data. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released overnight, came in at 51.5, beating estimates of 50.6. This helped the Chinese bourses outperform with the Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) outperforming other indices. South Korean markets edged slightly higher (+0.4%), despite the recent geopolitical developments in the North with Kim Jong Un claiming he has a “nuclear button” on his desk. Korean automakers underperformed as both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.

Chinese stocks greeted the new trading year with solid gains after Caixin factory index beats all estimates and a report suggests nationwide property tax may not start before 2020 according to Bloomberg reports. H-shares rallied as much as 2.8% while Hang Seng rose 1.7%.

In macro, as noted overnight the dollar weakened against all G10 peers, extending last year’s underperformance even as cryptocurrencies surged.



The U.S. currency fell further as London trading resumed after the new year holiday, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a fifth day, reaching its lowest level since Sept. 26, while the broader DXY index touched a four-month low against the euro, which was buoyed by strong manufacturing PMI data, which hit a new all time high despite a handful of notable countries seeing their PMIs peak. Trading was muted in Asia with Japanese markets closed until Jan. 4.

Tuesday’s dollar drop added to the dollar’s more than 12 percent slide against the euro last year, its worst performance since 2003. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the U.S. Dollar Index to slide further in 2018 as concerns about low inflation raise questions about the prospects for tighter Federal Reserve policy. “In our call of further dollar depreciation this year we are assuming a cautious approach by the FOMC given the considerable inflation undershoot last year leaves greater room for a more patient approach than many assume,” said Derek Halpenny, European head of global market research at MUFG. While the Japanese bank sees two Fed interest-rate increases this year, it predicts a 5% slide in the dollar index.

A major hurdle for the U.S. currency will be Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting when it raised interest rates. Two policymakers voted against the move amid doubts inflation would accelerate as hoped.

With the market now pricing in a 68 percent chance of a March hike and two hikes for 2018, there will be close inspection to assess just how shaky their confidence is for any pick-up in inflationary trends said Chris Weston, chief markets strategist at broker IG in Sydney.

“That said, the U.S. dollar is underloved and oversold and it won’t take much to promote a bout of profit-taking from the shorts.”

The dollar's slide meant strength for emerging markets, and sure enough South Korea’s won and Taiwan’s dollar led gains in Asia’s emerging-market currencies amid speculation exporters are selling U.S. dollars. The MSCI EM Asia Index rose the most since October and sovereign bonds climbed. Most Asian currencies opened the new year on a firmer footing amid talk of exporters selling U.S. dollars and after inflows into regional stocks. The yen was steady, the Aussie advanced with stronger iron ore prices and the kiwi strengthened for a 10th day. Thai and Philippine financial markets were shut for public holidays. The onshore yuan strengthens beyond 6.5 per dollar as PBOC drains a net 290b yuan of liquidity; Aussie outperforms G-10 peers, yen slightly softer.

In rates, T-note futures drift sideways as cash Treasuries remain closed for Japanese holiday. Germany’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 0.45 percent, the highest in almost 10 weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 1.258 percent, the highest in more than a week.

The skid in the dollar, combined with strength in Chinese demand, has benefited commodities priced into the currency. Copper dipped back a little on Tuesday to $7,223.50 a tonne, but that follows a rise of 31 percent in 2017 to a four-year top. Aluminium amassed gains of 34 percent.

Gold was 0.37 percent firmer at $1,310 an ounce, after advancing by 13 percent in 2017 for its best performance in seven years.

Brent crude oil futures ended the year with a 17 percent rise, while U.S. crude climbed 12 percent on strong demand and declining global inventories. On Tuesday, Brent dipped a few cents at $66.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude firmed 3 cents to $60.47.

Market Snapshot
  • E-Mini futures on S&P 500 up less than 0.1%
  • E-Mini futures on Nasdaq 100 down less than 0.1%
  • S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Dec. 29
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 388.10
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 175.06
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1.1% to 575.36
  • VIX Index down 0.5% to 10.99
  • WTI crude futures down 0.2% to $60.30/bbl
  • Brent futures down 0.1% to $66.78/bbl
  • Bloomberg dollar spot index down 0.4%
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 91.94
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,310.84
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 0.452%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.2050
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.9 bps to 1.747%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 1.598%
  • Nikkei down 0.08% to 22,764.94
  • Topix down 0.08% to 1,817.56
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 30,515.31
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,348.33
  • Sensex down 0.01% to 33,808.10
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.06% to 6,061.28
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,479.65
Top Overnight News
  • President Donald Trump and many Democrats and Republicans in Congress all enter the new year spoiling for a fight. Unresolved issues set aside in 2017 to make way for a tax overhaul are poised to surface early in 2018, giving Trump the opportunity for the confrontation with Washington’s establishment that he’s promised since his election
  • President Donald Trump said Iran is failing and called for a change there, as security forces clashed with demonstrators rallying in a rare show of displeasure with the country’s leaders
  • Euro-area manufacturing output rose by a record in December, capping a solid year that saw industry benefit from an improving global economy
  • A senior Iranian official said he hopes protests that have roiled Iran over the past five days will die down in a few days. More than a dozen people have died in the unrest, which began with a rally against rising prices and the government’s handling of the economy before turning into a wider protest against the political establishment
  • Vice President Mike Pence, who postponed a Middle East trip after Arab leaders denounced the U.S. for recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, will come this month despite speculation that he had delayed it again, an aide said.
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s call for talks to ensure the success of the Winter Olympics in South Korea next month -- and improve overall inter- Korean relations -- represented a tactical shift for a regime that had previously shunned dialogue offers from Seoul
  • Gold is opening the new year on the front foot. Bullion advanced for an eighth straight day to head for the longest stretch of gains since mid-2011
  • China’s economy begins 2018 facing what its own leaders call three years of “critical battles.”
  • BP Plc, the British oil major that invests more in the U.S. than anywhere else, expects to take a charge of about $1.5 billion following recent tax changes in the country, despite the prospects of long-term gains from the legislation

  • GFG Alliance, the acquisitive group led by U.K. businessman Sanjeev Gupta, agreed to purchase an Australian coal mine from Glencore Plc to feed its steel operations in the country

  • New York Fed search committee is casting a wide net to find a replacement for outgoing president William Dudley
Asian stocks began the year in positive territory, supported by strong Chinese data. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI, released overnight, came in at 51.5, beating estimates of 50.6. This helped the Chinese bourses outperform with the Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.0%) outperforming other indices. South Korean markets edged slightly higher (+0.4%), despite the recent geopolitical developments in the North with Kim Jong Un claiming he has a “nuclear button” on his desk. Korean automakers underperformed as both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. The latest Chinese Mfg survey data was as follows:
  • China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.6 (Prev. 51.8)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.8)
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 55.0 vs. Prev. 54.8
Top Asian News
  • Solid Singapore Growth Lays Ground for Possible Tax, MAS Moves
  • China Top Developers Head Into 2018 on Back of Buoyant Sales
  • China Rail Stocks Rise as 2018 Spending Target Tops Expectations
European equities have kicked the year off on the backfoot despite a relatively upbeat Asia-Pac session which saw indices supported by better than expected Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI. In terms of sectors, European auto names notably underperform their peers with the European Auto Sector Index enduring its worst day since July of last year. This comes in the context of underperformance in autos during Asia-Pac trade after both Hyundai and Kia Motors warned of only modest sales growth this year. Furthermore, the firmer EUR could also be supressing some of the more currency-sensitive exporters in Europe. Elsewhere, material names underperform despite the encouraging Chinese data overnight, while airline names have seen support after a slew of upgrades at BofA. In fixed income markets, a couple of decent sell orders appear to have exacerbated losses in debt futures, with clips of 2k noted and blocked in Bunds and Gilts at various times on the way down to fresh Eurex and Liffe lows of 161.22 and 124.45 respectively. To recap, Bunds actually traded flat initially, but then sold off immediately, while Gilts somehow resumed Liffe a tick firmer at 125.17 before correcting lower with their Eurozone counterpart and USTs that have succumbed to further weakness amidst the overall decline in bonds and ratchet higher in yields. Various catalysts including upbeat manufacturing surveys, hawkish CB commentary and bearish chart impulses/signals, while looming supply has also impacted (corporate pipeline and sovereign syndications anticipated in 10 year tenors from several Eurozone peripheral member states). Bunds inching closer to the next downside support area around 161.18/yield edging nearer to 0.50%.

Top European News
  • U.K. Manufacturing Growth Slows More Than Forecast in December
  • EU Can’t ‘Cherry Pick’ Post-Brexit Trade Deal, U.K.’s Davis Says
  • U.K.’s Biggest House-Price Jumps Came Outside London Last Year
  • Statoil Upgraded at RBC, Shell Top Pick Among ‘Super- Majors’
  • OPEC Deal Doesn’t Stop Russia From Record Oil Output in 2017
  • IAG, Norwegian Double-Upgraded at BofAML, Air-France Also Raised
In currencies, the Greenback has extended losses across the board, with the DXY now losing complete grip of the 92.000 handle and heading for 91.500 from around 91.750. No specific bearish news, but the overall trend of Dollar weakness persists into the New Year as markets brace for some potential fundamental drivers via FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and NFP (Friday). AUD and CAD are vying for top G10 performer vs the beleaguered USD with the AUD buoyed by better than expected Chinese PMI data overnight and up towards multi-month peaks around 0.7835. EUR and NZD both around 0.25% firmer vs the Greenback, with the Kiwi eyeing 0.7150 next, while EUR/USD has 1.2050 in its sight following hawkish/upbeat ECB rhetoric and ahead of the final Eurozone manufacturing PMI. GBP has been seen higher throughout the session with initial optimism amid reports of a potential UK cabinet reshuffle which saw EUR/GBP slip below 0.8900 before GBP strength was stuck in its tracks after UK manufacturing PMI (56.3 vs. Exp. 58.0) fell short of expectations.

In commodities, in the energy complex, both WTI and Brent crude futures have been supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East after Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it is taking charge of security in Tehran as nationwide protests entered their fifth day. This has subsequently offset and over-shadowed any potential bearish pressure from news that Libya have resumed oil flows to the Es Sider terminal and the reopening of the Forties pipeline. In metals markets, gold prices remain supported after breaching USD 1300/oz to the upside last week and alongside a broadly softer USD. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen higher overnight, although some analysts note fears over potential for upside given the prospects for cold weather to slow construction activity.

US Event Calendar
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55, prior 55
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy New Year to you all. I would say that it has been nice to recharge the batteries but the truth is that my batteries were quite full on December 22nd and are now requiring a bit of a jump start. Over the break we had to deal with the twins and Maisie all having horrible coughs, an Ambulance being called out for Eddie on NYE due to breathing problems (he's has viral bronchiolitis but was a bit better yesterday), several 2 year old tantrums, a power cut on Xmas Day just after everyone had finally got to sleep and we sat down to watch 'The Crown', the boiler breaking down on NYE leaving us currently with no heating, about 100,000 calories spread across us over the week and a few too many glasses of red. On the plus side we chose a kitchen for the new house and remarkably yesterday James slept through the night with Eddie (despite being ill) only waking a couple of times. So in spite of a tough Xmas, hopefully we've turned a corner!!

So 2018 will perhaps be the year of uninterrupted sleep! Back to last year, at the end of our note today we do our usual performance review for 2017, December and Q4 with all the charts and table in the PDF. There are a few things that stand out for me about 2017 from the review. 1) Of the regular 39 assets in our sample, a very impressive 38 finished with a positive total return in USD terms and 36 did so in local currency terms. 2) The S&P 500 (+21.8%) ended the year with a positive return in every month - the first time this has ever happened in the 90 years of monthly data we have and; 3) Bunds were the worst performer out of the 39 assets in local currency terms. This is interesting as there is a perception that Bunds are bullet proof given the lack of supply and extreme ECB QE. However the fact that most of the curve still has a negative yield and that 2017 ended with the German economy growing at an annualised rate of over 4% nominal means that even Bunds couldn't defy valuation gravity last year.

On that, today officially marks the point where ECB purchases halve in size from €60bn to €30bn per month. We think the PSPP program might be reduced by relatively more than the CSPP meaning that Government purchases actually drop by more than 50%. One of the biggest stories of 2018 will be how Government bond yields cope with the notable reduction of support from central banks. 2017 was still a peak year for the supply/demand technicals in Govvies. We think 2018 will mark the first year in around 7-8 where QE from the big-3 (Fed, ECB, BoJ) doesn't increase relative to net issuance of the same regions' bonds. So the technicals will deteriorate for the first time this decade all other things being equal.

To kick off the NY we thought we'd briefly recap what has happened since December 22nd with regards to data and any interesting market moves

Firstly on data. In Europe, Germany’s flash December CPI reading was above expectations at 1.6% yoy (vs. 1.4% expected), while the final readings of 3Q GDP for the UK (1.7% yoy vs. 1.5% expected) and France (2.3% yoy vs. 2.2% expected) were also above market. In the US, the December Dallas Fed manufacturing index (29.7 vs. 20 expected) and Chicago PMI (67.6 vs. 62 expected) both beat expectations, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was slightly below at 20 (vs. 21 expected).

Moving onto key market moves since 22 December. In government bonds, the mini-bond pre-Xmas sell off partly reversed, with the UST 10y yield down 7.6bp to 2.405% and Gilts down 5bp to 1.187%, but Bunds were broadly flat at 0.419%. Over in currencies, the EURUSD experienced a mini flash crash on Christmas day with the currency bouncing 0.84% intraday. It has since stabilised and has climbed c1.3% to above 1.20 and now near its early-September highs. Turning to equities, both the S&P and Stoxx 600 weakened 0.36% and 0.28% respectively. Within the Stoxx, the European banks index dropped 1.57%, likely weighed down by the uncertainties on how US tax reforms will impact foreign banks when it makes payments between its US and global subsidiaries. Gold powered ahead 2.53% to be back above $1300/oz. Finally, Bitcoin retreated c6% over the week and is down c28% from its recent highs on 18 December to be around $13,360 a piece now.

This morning in Asia, China’s December Caixin manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 51.5 (vs. 50.7 expected). Equity markets are broadly higher, with the Hang Seng (+1.82%) and China’s CSI 300 (+1.30%) both up strongly with gains led by tech, energy and property stocks. The Kospi is up 0.40% but the ASX 200 is down 0.06% as we type, while Japanese markets are closed until Thursday.

Away from markets and onto New Year speeches from politicians. In North Korea, Kim Jong Un appeared to be taking a conciliatory tone, noting that “it’s about time that the North and the South sit down and seriously discuss how to improve inter-Korean relations”. Over in Germany, Ms Merkel is keen to end the political stalemate to form the next coalition government, she noted that “the world won’t wait for us”. The talks between her party and the SPD are scheduled to start on 7 January.

Looking at the day ahead, we start the year with the final reading of the December manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Germany, France and US, as well as the flash readings for the UK and Italy.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...s-hit-all-time-highs-europe-slides-euro-jumps
 

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Frontrunning: January 2

by Tyler Durden
Tue, 01/02/2018 - 08:10

  • Trump’s Risky Strategy to Knock Out North Korean Missiles (BBG)
  • Iran's leader says enemies stirred unrest (Reuters)
  • Oil Steadies Above $60 as Protests Spread in Iran (BBG)
  • Deep freeze keeps grip on eastern United States; four die (Reuters)
  • Moderate Democrats Get a Boost as Doug Jones Joins the Senate (WSJ)
  • Pakistan summons U.S. ambassador after Trump's angry tweet (Reuters)
  • South Korea Wants to Talk Olympics (And Nuclear Weapons) With North (WSJ)
  • Criminal Underworld Is Dropping Bitcoin for Another Currency (BBG)
  • Trump and Congress Gear Up for Budget Fight With Shutdown at Stake Again (BBG)
  • 2018 Feels Ripe for ‘Big Unexpected Crisis,’ Eurasia Group Says (BBG)
  • Gold Is on Its Best Winning Streak Since 2011 (BBG)
  • YouTuber Logan Paul under fire after posting video showing apparent suicide victim (USA Today)
  • The world's biggest YouTube stars are seeing a massive slowdown (Business Insider)
  • BP Takes $1.5 Billion Charge Related to U.S. Tax Overhaul (WSJ)
  • Fed Outlook for Higher Rates Dims U.S. Auto Sales View for 2018 (BBG)
  • Steve Cohen Prepares Return With Help of Big Brother Oversight (BBG)
  • Dairies Are Awash in Organic Milk as Consumers Jump to Alternatives (WSJ)
  • No Idea What MiFID Stands For? Here’s What You Need to Know (BBG)
  • Amazon Will Buy Target This Year, Loup's Gene Munster Predicts (BBG)
  • The Biggest Threats to China’s Economy in 2018 (BBG)
  • How China Will Shake Up the Oil Futures Market (BBG)
  • ‘Big Data’ Worries Europe’s Antitrust Regulator (WSJ)
Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Playboy Enterprises Inc's controlling shareholder — private-equity firm Rizvi Traverse — is in talks to acquire the 35 percent stake Hugh Hefner left in trust to his heirs. The company says it is doubling down on efforts to make money from brand partnerships and licensing deals built around the Playboy name, ethos and bunny logo, with increasingly less focus on its editorial roots. on.wsj.com/2CqDRqV

- UC Browser, a mobile browser rarely used in the West has outflanked Google's Chrome in some of Asia's fastest-growing markets, giving owner Alibaba Group Holding Ltd an advantage in the race among technology giants to capture the next generation of internet users. on.wsj.com/2CqSJWg

- A handful of Canadian miners, including Vale SA and Sherritt International Corp, are ramping up operations to mine cobalt, betting on demand for a socially responsible source of the metal that is in high demand as a key component of electric cars. on.wsj.com/2CpzKv1

- "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" became the highest-grossing movie of 2017 this weekend having collected an estimated $533 million in the United States and Canada so far, giving Walt Disney Co another banner year at the box office that left rival studios fighting for leftovers. on.wsj.com/2A3pm5X

NYT

- In late summer, Verizon Communications came to Rupert Murdoch with a surprise acquisition offer. Verizon, wanted to buy pieces of Twenty-First Century Fox, Murdoch's television and film conglomerate. Representatives of the two companies secretly met at least once to discuss a merger. Murdoch, 86, shrugged off the talks as uninspiring, according to an associate. nyti.ms/2lALsbO

- A wave of optimism has swept over American business leaders, and it is beginning to translate into the sort of investment in new plants, equipment and factory upgrades that bolsters economic growth, spurs job creation - and may finally raise wages significantly. nyti.ms/2lAEjZ8

- Retail cannabis shops in California opened their doors on Monday for the first time, inaugurating what proponents say will become the world's largest market for legalized recreational marijuana. nyti.ms/2lAY3f3

- Gretchen Carlson, who was Miss America in 1989 and in recent years has become a prominent voice against workplace sexual harassment, will take over as chairwoman of the pageant's board of directors, the organization announced on Monday. nyti.ms/2lzFbNB

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
** In a joint interview, federal Health Minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor and her parliamentary secretary, former Toronto police chief Bill Blair, said the new regime for legal marijuana will vary by province as different rules are being put in place for distribution and retail. tgam.ca/2CqChoW

** The new leader of the Lower Mainland's mayors' transit council says he believes that the group will need to make some tough choices in the new year about which of the British Columbia region's three planned major projects should get priority. tgam.ca/2CtxzGL

** The Trudeau government should create a new watchdog to handle public complaints about the Canada Border Services Agency, a federally commissioned report says. The report, prepared for Public Safety Canada, also recommends the proposed body be able to look into trends and any systemic problems at the border services agency. tgam.ca/2CqCzfw

NATIONAL POST

** Aphria Inc, Aurora Cannabis Inc and Canopy Growth Corp, three of Canada’s largest licensed producers of medical marijuana, saw trading of their shares temporarily frozen just after noon on Friday. According to the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the reason for the halt was because the stocks had tripped circuit breakers put in place for sudden price swings.

** In its year-end filing to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Canada's environmental office said it expects total greenhouse gas emissions to fall to 583 megatonnes by 2030, a roughly one-third reduction compared to 2015 levels. bit.ly/2CrrxGJ

Britain

The Times

- Peer-to-peer lender Funding Circle is poised to hire advisers to prepare for over a 1 billion pound ($1.35 billion) float next year. bit.ly/2zTrBJ3

- Directors of the Palmer & Harvey (P&H) altered the terms of an interest-free loan for the company’s former boss so it would not have to be repaid if P&H went bust. Christopher Etherington received a 3.4 million pound loan from P&H to help fund a management buyout (MBO) in 2008. bit.ly/2zV4Sw9

The Guardian

- A shortage of charging points and strain on energy supplies are now the main stumbling blocks to the rise of driverless electric cars, according to the UK boss of insurer Axa. bit.ly/2zUtDsE

The Telegraph

- UK Prime Minister Theresa May is said to be considering moving Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, in a "renewal" reshuffle which could see her axe as many as five ministers. bit.ly/2zVdl2B

Sky News

- Charles‎ Randell, a former partner at the 'Magic Circle' law firm Slaughter & May, is in talks about succeeding John Griffith-Jones at the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). bit.ly/2zTsnpr

The Independent

- Labour would be much further ahead in the polls if Jeremy Corbyn could convince people who share his party’s values to back it at the ballot box, a YouGov poll has revealed. ind.pn/2zUn2OA

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-02/frontrunning-january-2