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Historic Shipyard Turns From Ships To Technology

February 2, 2018 by Bloomberg



USS Utah – First Docking in Dry Dock Number 4, Brooklyn Navy Yard

by David M. Levitt (Bloomberg) — America may never recover its glory as a manufacturing powerhouse, but the Brooklyn Navy Yard is doing what it can, transforming itself from a 20th-century ship builder to a 21st-century high-tech hub.

Now it’s about to unveil a $2.5 billion building plan that would more than quadruple its current workforce.

The navy yard’s ongoing expansion — which includes the reconstruction of Admiral’s Row, where naval officers once lived, and the creation of a waterfront office building that the co-working startup WeWork Cos. helped design — should raise the job count to about 20,000, from the current 7,000, according to the Brooklyn Navy Yard Development Corp.

The new building plan is for 5.1 million more square feet (474,000 square meters). A little more than half of it will be in a single, vast complex with about the total square footage of the Empire State Building, bringing the yard’s total workforce to about 30,000.

The expansion would allow for startups to design and test products while giving them space to grow when they go to full production. The city has had trouble holding on to creative manufacturers once they become successful, said David Ehrenberg, president and chief executive officer of the development corporation, a not-for-profit that manages and develops the property on behalf of the yard’s owner, New York City.

It’s a far cry from the yard’s shipbuilding peak during World War II, when about 70,000 people worked at the site — and a long way from the blue-collar culture of the borough’s wartime years. Nearby Williamsburg and Dumbo have become magnets for affluent millennials in tech and media.

The navy yard has sought a balance of creative types and traditional working-class Americans at the site where the U.S.S. Arizona was launched. A representative employer there is Steiner Studios, a Hollywood-style film lot where about 60 percent of the jobs are for carpenters, woodworkers and other people who work with their hands. And the yard has thrived.

“When we started here, it was a bombed-out mess,” Douglas Steiner, chairman, said of the studio’s birth in 2004, when the surrounding neighborhoods were just starting to be gentrified. Steiner is celebrating Academy Award nominations for “The Post” and “The Greatest Showman,” parts of which were shot at the studio, along with TV shows such as “The Deuce” and “Girls.”

“Now everybody wants to be here,” he said.

But can everybody get a job here? Since 2016, about 2.75 million square feet of office space has been built in Brooklyn, with an additional 2.4 million square feet under construction, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The navy yard is a different animal, but 5.1 million square feet is a lot of manufacturing space to create in a service economy. The current yard has about 4.8 million square feet.

Clare Newman, chief of staff and executive vice president of the development corporation, pointed to the yard’s track record.

“We’ve reached a point where we have really finished rehabbing all of the existing buildings at the yard, and we’ve been over 99 percent leased for the past decade,” Newman said. “So there’s clearly demand out there, and we want to make sure we’re continuing to add space to support these manufacturing businesses and, most importantly, to support the kinds of jobs they create.”

Rather than bring in private developers — as was done with the waterfront office project known as Dock 72 being built by Rudin Management Co. and Boston Properties Inc. — the plan is to self-fund the development from the revenue the corporation raises from tenants. It will also seek government and philanthropic subsidies and tax credits, based on “quality projects that will create good social policy outcomes,” Ehrenberg said.

The plan focuses on three sites encompassing 24.5 acres (10 hectares) of the 300-acre complex. The one likeliest to come first is a 2.7 million-square-foot complex to be built around what is now a barge basin with oyster traps, Ehrenberg said. It would be about three parts manufacturing space to one part creative offices, designed to appeal to the sort of tech companies that have flocked to Brooklyn. The area is now mostly truck and car parking.

A second site, with about the same mix of manufacturing and creative space, is at present mostly a tow pound used by the New York Police Department. A third is home to what Ehrenberg called the yard’s last federal occupant, a Bureau of Prisons supply depot.

There have been other changes since the Navy Yard launched the Arizona, when Brooklyn had taken in waves of poor immigrants. More recently, the yard’s development corporation has turned to the federal EB-5 program. The program ties permission to enter the country to a requirement that immigrants provide at least $500,000 for projects that create jobs in the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: David M. Levitt in New York at [email protected] To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Taub at [email protected], Peter Jeffrey ©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

Filed Under: Navy Tagged With: History, new york city, nyc

http://gcaptain.com/historic-shipyard-turns-ships-technology/
 

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Dow plunges 660 points in biggest drop since 2011 amid fears that the Federal Reserve may be forced to act more aggressively to cool down the economy
  • The stock market had its sharpest drop since 2011 on Friday over fears about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates
  • The Fed may have to raise interest rates to cool down the economy, which has heated up faster than investors expected
  • The last time this happened was in 2011 when the US' debt was downgraded
  • Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 660 points by 3pm


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5346349/Dow-plunges-630-points-biggest-drop-2011.html#ixzz55zmz5jzt
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
 

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Stock Market Plunges 666 Points, Bitcoin Dives & Gold Dips
SalivateMetal


Published on Feb 2, 2018
 

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DOW Falls 650, Crypto Loses $100 Billion: GOLD IS YOUR REDOUBT
Junius Maltby


Published on Feb 2, 2018
Gold is your redoubt in a chaotic world of calamity. Crypto lost 20% of its market cap - $100 Billion in 24 hours, BTC fell below $9000, Stocks fell today and are down for the week with Gold looking stronger for 2018.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 2 2 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Feb 2, 2018
Ira Epstein reviews the days trading in the agriculture markets. For more information and access to Ira's free offers for commodity traders, visit https://www.iraepstein.com.
 

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SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap...........

Silver Market, "Never Seen Anything Like It In 40 Years" | Bill Murphy
SilverDoctors


Published on Feb 2, 2018
https://sdbullion.com
http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

Gold and silver got smashed down today. In his whole career, former commodities trader Bill Murphy has never seen any market trade like silver is trading right now.

The only way to have honest price discovery in the silver market is for physical demand to overwhelm the manipulation, Murphy says.

Silver manipulation, along with gold manipulation, when exposed will be "the biggest financial scandal in U.S. history."

The U.S. added 200,000 jobs in January, but the markets show fear of higher interest rates to come. The Dow fell more than 650 points today, ending the week down 1000 points.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 2 2 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Feb 2, 2018
Ira Epstein reviews the days trading in the Financial markets. For more information and access to Ira's free offers for futures traders, visit https://www.iraepstein.com.
 

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TVR [#454] 02-02-2018 END OF WEEK REPORT: BTC GOLD SILVER BONDS NASDAQ MINERS
ALGO CAPITALIST


Published on Feb 2, 2018
Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
 

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Friday Market Watch With Junius Maltby: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Dow Jones!
SalivateMetal


Streamed live 16 hours ago
 

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Think & Understand Truth | Th Tao of SKWealthAcademy Podcast Episode_006
skwealthacademy


Published on Feb 3, 2018
Show Notes:

Today, we cover a wide variety of topics from choices of integrity v. fame and fortune in the entertainment and banking industry, issues of human slavery and human trafficking, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, media framing of Colin Kaepernick's social agenda, disposable fashion and even parenting.

If you enjoyed this podcast episode, please consider donating to our patreon account at http://www.patreon.com/skwealthacademy

Actress Jang Ja-yeon's Suicide Note Exposes 31 South Korean Entertainment Executives of Sexual Abuse & Harrassment
https://www.theguardian.com/world/200...

Asia's Shrimping Industry Uses Human Slaves
https://www.theguardian.com/global-de...

Harvey Weinstein One of Many Sexual Harassers in Hollywood
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...

The True Cost of Disposable Fashion
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/29/the-t...

Colin Kapearnick's $1M Challenge
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...

Subscribe to the Tao of SKWealthAcademy Podcast at http://thetaoofskwealthacademypodcast...

Follow us on Snapchat, and Twitter: skwealthacademy Follow us on IG: john_skwealthacademy
Free downloads of the Tao of SKWealthAcademy Podcast episodes on iTunes at https://itunes.apple.com/podcast/the-...

Coming Soon...skwealthacademy.com
 

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Gold, Silver Hammered - Something Big is Happening in Bonds
Silver Fortune


Published on Feb 2, 2018
A big move down for stocks, bonds, and metals this week. An analysis of why, and some big picture concepts to keep in mind.
 

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Baltic Index Falls 10% This Week; Capesize Index Down 17%

February 2, 2018 by Reuters



Photo credit: Shutterstock/tcly


Feb 2 (Reuters) – The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, ended the week over 10 percent lower on Friday, as rates fell across all vessel segments, pushing the index to near 6-month lows.

* The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax, supramax and handysize shipping vessels, fell 19 points, or 1.71 percent, at 1,095 points, touching its lowest level since Aug. 10 last year.

* The capesize index shed 58 points, or 3.8 percent, at 1,470 points. It fell about 17 percent for the week.

* Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes such as iron ore and coal, were down $424 to $11,367.

* The panamax index fell 19 points, or 1.38 percent, at 1,359 points.

* Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $150 to $10,896.

* Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was down 5 points to 872 points and the handysize index also fell 5 points to 547 points.

* Changes to the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index has created the possibility of it becoming a tradable instrument for the first time, industry officials said on Thursday. (Reporting by Karen Rodrigues in Bengaluru)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

Filed Under: News Tagged With: baltic dry index

http://gcaptain.com/baltic-index-falls-10-week-capesize-index-17/
 

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Container Lines Score Profits of $7 Billion in 2017 and Eye Even Happier New Year

February 2, 2018 by The Loadstar


Photo: By tcly / Shutterstock

By Mike Wackett (The Loadstar) – Container lines are estimated to have made an accumulated profit of $7bn last year and, according to Drewry, should achieve a similar result this year – or better.

In its latest Container Market Outlook & Freight Rate Trend, Drewry says it expects continued volume growth in every region and has upped its forecast for 2018 from an annualised growth of 3.6% to 4.3%.

It noted this would represent a further nine million containers requiring shipment, which has somewhat alleviated concerns about industry overcapacity from the introduction of a significant number of ultra-large newbuild ships.

Philip Damas, director of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said “supply pressures are not as hazardous as it would appear”, given the ability of the liners to “suppress the impact by deferring deliveries” and off-hiring chartered tonnage when needed.

There would seem to be a ready market for off-hired ships. One broker told The Loadstar this week he had charterers in some sectors “becoming desperate” for tonnage.

According to the latest idle tonnage report from Alphaliner, the number of containerships in lay-up has fallen to a new low of 82, equating to 301,116 teu, or just 1.6% of the global fleet. It added that the active fleet had now reached 20.98m teu – 10.8% higher than a year ago.

Assuming demand does not soften too much after the forthcoming Chinese new year and that fuel costs do not spiral further, carriers will be in a positive frame of mind as they publish their 2017 results in the coming weeks.

And carriers can look to fixing most Asia to Europe contracts at a level on par with or slightly better than last year, which itself was a significant improvement on 2016.

There is still time to run before the transpacific contract season, but the initial indications on that route are positive also.

Meanwhile, container spot rates, the bellwether for contract rates, were firm last week on the back of continued high load factors. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) saw its Asia to North Europe component edge up slightly to $912 per teu, while spot rates to Mediterranean ports ticked up by 3.2% to $797 per teu.

Most Asia-Europe forwarders The Loadstar has spoken to in the past few weeks have been obliged to agree to price increases from 1 February on their so-called VIP short-term rates, which generally offer guaranteed shipment.

Elsewhere, the SCFI recorded rates from Asia to the US west coast ahead by 6.5% on the week, to $1,552 per 40ft, and for the US east coast, there was an increase of 3% to $2,843 per 40ft.

The Loadstar is fast becoming known at the highest levels of logistics and supply chain management as one of the best sources of influential analysis and commentary.

Check them out at TheLoadstar.co.uk, or find them on Facebook and Twitter.

Filed Under: News Tagged With: container shipping

http://gcaptain.com/container-lines...illion-in-2017-and-eye-even-happier-new-year/
 

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Craig Hemke - Gold & Silver Rebound on Sinking Dollar
Greg Hunter


Published on Feb 3, 2018
Financial writer and precious metals expert Craig Hemke thinks commodities are undervalued and cheap relative to stocks, which just had the biggest one day sell-off in years. Hemke contends, “$15 trillion worth of QE has been applied, $15 trillion worth of currency created in the last 8 years. . . . So, there are trillions and trillions of dollars that are sloshing around the planet, and when they all head in one direction, you get things like Bitcoin. If all of this money starts to head into commodities due to a falling dollar and recognition of inflation, commodities are going up, as is crude, as is silver & gold. I think it would be wise of people to position themselves ahead of it. . . . The commodities sector will rebound on the sinking dollar.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com.

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All links can be found on USAWatchdog.com: https://usawatchdog.com/fed-wants-low...
 

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Oil Tanker Missing Since Friday in Gulf of Guinea – Ship Manager

February 4, 2018 by Mike Schuler


MT Marine Express. Jurij S.

An oil products tanker with 22 Indian crew members has been missing since Friday in the Gulf of Guinea, the manager of the vessel has confirmed, sparking fears that the vessel has been hijacked.

Hong Kong-based Anglo-Eastern confirmed in a tweet that they have lost contact with their managed MT Marine Express while in Cotonou, Benin. Last contact was made with the vessel February 1 at 03:30 UTC.

We regret that contact has been lost with the AE-managed MT Marine Express while at Cotonou, Benin. Last contact was at 03:30 UTC, Feb 1. Authorities have been alerted and are responding. Our top priority is the safety of the crew, whose families have been contacted. Updates TBA.

— Anglo-Eastern (@angloeasterngrp) February 2, 2018

The 180-meter MT Marine Express is registered in Panama. The vessel was built in 2009.

AIS tracking data shows the vessel was last at an anchorage off Cotonou, Benin on Friday.

Filed Under: Maritime News Tagged With: west africa piracy

http://gcaptain.com/oil-tanker-missing-since-friday-in-gulf-of-guinea-ship-manager/
 

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farm talk feb. 4
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Feb 4, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and all that goes with it.
 

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Global Market Rout Resumes: Asian Bloodbath Spills Over Into Europe, US Sharply Lower

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/05/2018 - 07:04


Global markets were routed for the second day in a row on Monday, with Asian and European indexes opening lower and bond yields rising as resurgent U.S. inflation raised the possibility central banks would tighten policy more aggressively than had been expected.

Asian stocks suffered broad losses, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan plunging as much as 2%, its largest daily drop since late 2016, while S&P futures extended Friday’s decline; the Nikkei dropped 2.6% while Hang Seng plunged as much as 2.7% before rebounding. The selling fed through into Europe, however without heavy continuing momentum.




Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures are above initial lows printed straight from Globex electronic re-open, helped in part by reports that China's regulator would act to "mitigate" the equity selloff, which helped Chinese indices to rally into close, and close green.



Friday’s payrolls report showed wages growing at their fastest pace in more than eight years, fuelling expectations for both inflation and interest rates would rise more than previously forecast. That sparked a global sell-off that continued on Monday. Futures markets priced in the risk of three, or even more, rate rises by the Federal Reserve this year.

“This added fuel to a bond market sell-off, pushing US 10 year Treasury bond yields closer to the magic 3 percent level, which will only increase borrowing costs for corporates following years of cheap financing, thus ushering equities further from recent highs,” said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets.

As a result, all eyes remain on the 10Y US Treasury for indication if last week's rout would continue, and while treasuries remain under pressure, with the yield briefly touching 2.885%, the selloff appears to have since moderated. Elsewhere, Aussie bonds were sharply lower aided by soft 15-year auction, while the 10Y JGB was trading comfortably below the BOJ's 0.11% redline, at 0.084%. German 10-year yields rose to 0.774%, their highest since September 2015. German 30-year yields rose to two-year highs at 1.429%.




The Bloomberg Dollar Index was little changed, modestly lower from the Friday close; yen marginally firmer. The Norwegian crown, a key commodity currency, was one of the biggest losers in Europe on Monday, down 0.3 percent against the U.S. dollar. In emerging markets, the South African rand fell 0.7 percent and the Chinese yuan and Polish zloty 0.2 percent.



The yen gained against all its major peers as shares slumped across Asia following a rout in U.S. equities and Treasuries on Friday. Japan’s currency gained for the first time in four days against the dollar as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average headed for its biggest slide since November 2016.

"“Higher U.S. yields are weighing on risk assets, exerting upward pressure on the yen from risk aversion,” said Minori Uchida, Tokyo head of global market research at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

“Nikkei’s big drop is behind the yen’s strength today,” says Masakazu Satou, currency adviser in Tokyo at Gaitame Online, retail FX brokerage. “While U.S. stocks are likely undergoing a temporary adjustment, today’s performance is important. If U.S. stocks fall further significantly, they will likely enter a full-blown correction phase.”

In China, the PBOC weakened the daily CNY fixing and drained a net 40b yuan of liquidity after the 8th consecutive day of no open market reverse-repo operations; Shanghai Composite pares early losses after Caixin services PMI beats estimates and following reports of possible regulatory intervention to prop up stocks. Dalian iron 1.2% stronger.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index fell 0.9%, its sixth consecutive day of losses totaling 4.1%, the biggest decline since Brexit and the longest rout since November; more importantly, the Stoxx 600 dipped below its 200-DMA for first time since early December and is now at two-month lows. As a reminder, European stocks suffered their biggest weekly selloff since November 2016 last week amid rising bond yields. The Stoxx 600 is now down 1.3% in 2018.

All major indexes in Europe fell: the UK's FTSE 100 dropped 1 percent, France's CAC 40 0.8 percent and Germany's DAX 0.6 percent. In terms of sector specifics, losses have been relatively broad-based thus far with all ten sectors in the red. Airline names have been suffering this morning with RyanAir (-3%) softer in the wake of a disappointing earnings update, subsequently dragging easyJet (-2.3%) lower. Deutsche Lufthansa (-1.6%) were seen lower at the open amid reports that German coalition negotiators could drop proposal to abolish air transport tax. Elsewhere, markets will be looking out for any follow up to Friday’s reports that US regulators are seeking major fines for Fiat Chrysler as part of its motor settlement.

As we reported on Friday night, the Federal Reserve sanctioned Wells Frago after the fake accounts scandal. Wells Fargo said it could reduce profits by as much as USD 400mln this year, and the stock was down over 9% in the premarket.

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, investors are watching closely for clues on the direction of the rout that started in U.S. Treasuries and spread across global markets last week, with some pointing to synchronized economic growth as a reason to remain optimistic. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi could help stem further losses when he delivers an annual report to the European Parliament on Monday.

In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures pared earlier losses after hitting a one-month low in early European trade. Friday’s rig count saw oil drillers add rigs for the second consecutive week, a sign that US oil production could soon exceed 10mln bpd. The Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh stated that OPEC’s step to push up oil prices is short-lived and that any country that builds oil output capacity will ultimately win, while he also suggested to wait until the June meeting for a decision regarding an extension of cuts. In metals markets, spot gold trades higher, benefiting from its safe-haven status, albeit gains are relatively modest thus far with reports suggesting that Indian gold imports fell to a 17-month low in Jan. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen lower in quiet trading conditions while nickel prices in London have recovered from recent losses.

In other news, UK PM May will face a coup that would install Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michael Gove if she persists with plans to keep Britain in a customs union with the European Union, Tory MPs warned according to the Sunday Times. Downing Street has since ruled out joining a customs union with the EU, while EU and UK said to seek quick Brexit agreement on defence and security.

The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates twice this year after a surprisingly strong showing from the economy at the end of last year and a brightening outlook in 2018, leading economists say.

Germany's CDU, CSU, and SPD want to present a coalition agreement by Tuesday.

Reports stated that Italian election polls could be downplaying possibility that centre-right coalition backed by Berlusconi could be closer to a majority victory at election next month.

Outgoing Fed Chair Yellen stated that asset valuations are generally elevated but added that she doesn’t want to call it a bubble.

Economic data include Markit PMIs. Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sysco, Skyworks are among companies reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
  • European equities join the global sell-off as markets reassess their Fed outlook for 2018
  • UK PM May rules out staying in the Customs Union post-Brexit amid reports that she faces a coup from pro-
  • Brexit MPs
  • Looking ahead, highlights today include: US Markit Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing and ECB’s Draghi
  • speaks
Top Overnight News from BBG:
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel and party leaders of SPD, CSU want to present a final grand coalition agreement on Tuesday, Rheinische Post reports, citing an internal SPD planning paper
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out staying in the EU’s customs union after Brexit, a government official said, adding it isn’t government policy to stay in "a" customs union either
  • Tory MPs earlier said May would face a coup to install three pro-Brexit leaders if she continues with plans to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU
  • Investors have ramped up bets that the follow- up to BOE’s November’s tightening -- the first in a decade -- will come as soon as May
  • Maintaining QE and 2% inflation target are still important, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says in Japan’s parliament on Monday; PM Abe says that while Japan hasn’t escaped from deflation yet, momentum toward 2% inflation is still maintained
  • China composite PMI rose to 53.7 in January, up from 53 in December and to the highest reading since January 2011
  • ellen: Wages are beginning to rise at a faster pace; asset values are high but would not say they are too high; a drop in asset values would not unduly damage core financial system
  • Fed’s Williams: no need to change path of gradual hikes; not too bothered by inflation overshooting target for a time
  • European Jan. Service PMIs: Spain 56.9 vs 55.0 est; Italy 57.7 vs 55.9 est; France 59.2 vs 59.3 est; Germany 57.3 vs 57.0 est; Eurozone 58.0 vs 57.6 est; Markit note first concurrent rise in selling prices across survey nations since July 2008
  • U.K. Jan. Services PMI: 53.0 vs 54.1 est; slowest upturn in services output for 16 months
  • German Coalition: parties want to present final grand coalition agreement on Tuesday: Rheinische Post
  • China regulator (CSRC) is urging domestic brokerages to ask investors to add to their collateral when share prices drop instead of closing out the positions according to people familiar
Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% at 2,752.90
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 384.54
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.4% to 179.82
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 1.3% to 590.34
  • Nikkei down 2.6% to 22,682.08
  • Topix down 2.2% to 1,823.74
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 32,245.22
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,487.50
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 34,692.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 6,026.23
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,491.75
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 0.738%
  • Euro up 0.09% to $1.2474
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $68.16/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 8.4 bps to 1.781%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.9 bps to 1.433%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $68.25/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,335.43
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.06
A bloodbath was seen across equity markets in Asia trade as most major bourses suffered deep losses after Friday’s slump on Wall St, where stocks failed to benefit from the better than expected NFP jobs data and sold-off on the bond market weakness as markets reprice expectations for the Fed’s tightening cycle. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.6%) opened with firm losses amid a continued rout in US equity futures, while mining and oil-related sectors were the worst performers following weakness in the commodities complex. Hang Seng (-1.1%) conformed to the downbeat tone with notable pressure in the energy giants, while Macau gambling stocks also racked up losses on competition concerns after reports that China is drafting a proposal to permit gambling on Hainan Island. Conversely, Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) pared opening losses and outperformed the region after encouraging Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI data releases, in which the former posted its highest since May 2012. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat and held on to Friday’s BoJ-induced gains, with only brief support seen amid a wide-spread risk-averse tone.

Top Asian News
  • Chinese Funds Buy Record $1.6 Billion of Hong Kong Stocks Today
  • China Is Said to Ask Brokerages to Help Avert Stock Declines
  • Indonesia’s Economy Grows Faster Than Estimated in 4th Quarter
  • Samsung’s Jay Y. Lee Set Free in Unexpected Seoul Court Reversal
  • Value Stocks Are Still Unloved Everywhere Except for China
  • China Regulator Is Said to Allow Rollover of Share Pledged Loans
European equities have very much kicked the week off on the back-foot as Friday’s sell off in US equities has spread into Asia-Pac and European trade (Eurostoxx 50 -0.7%) as markets re-price expectations of the Fed’s tightening cycle. In terms of sector specifics, losses have been relatively broad-based thus far with all ten sectors in the red. Airline names have been suffering this morning with RyanAir (-3%) softer in the wake of a disappointing earnings update, subsequently dragging easyJet (-2.3%) lower. Deutsche Lufthansa (-1.6%) were seen lower at the open amid reports that German coalition negotiators could drop proposal to abolish air transport tax. Elsewhere, markets will be looking out for any follow up to Friday’s reports that US regulators are seeking major fines for Fiat Chrysler as part of its motor settlement. Wells Fargo (WFC) – The Federal Reserve has sanctioned the bank after the fake accounts scandal. Wells Fargo said it could reduce profits by as much as USD 400mln this year. Broadcom (AVGO)/Qualcomm (QCOM) – Broadcom is set to raise its bid for Qualcomm to about USD 145bln or USD 80/share, according to sources.

Top European News
  • May Under Fire as Brexit Reality Sparks Conservative Civil War
  • Prudential Financial Agrees $1.8b Reinsurence Deal With Lloyds
  • Bund Futures Are Underpinned as Small Dovish Repricing Supports
  • German CDU, CSU, SPD Want to Present Coalition Deal Tuesday: RP
  • Bayer, Monsanto Submit Concessions in EU Deal Review
In FX, the Dollar index has consolidated post-NFP recovery gains above the 89.000 level, despite losing some ground against the traditional safe-haven currencies amidst the ongoing pull-back in global equities (in part triggered by higher bond yields and Fed tightening perceptions in wake of Friday’s US jobs report). Eur/Usd is back down around 1.2450 vs last week’s 1.2500+ peaks, as specs increased long positions yet again (to fresh record highs), while Cable is pivoting around 1.4100 amidst more UK/Brexit-related claims and denials (latest concerning a plot against PM May on EU customs union issues). Usd/Cad has rebounded above 1.2400 with the Loonie undermined by reports that Canada could walk away from NAFTA, while Aud/Usd and Nzd/Usd are both sitting just above recent lows and round numbers (0.7900 and 0.7300) awaiting this week’s RBA and RBNZ policy meetings). Conversely, Usd/Jpy has retreated from Friday’s US labour data inspired highs and back below 110.00, with resistance seen ahead of the 110.37 Fib (38.2%) and 110.50 offers, but 109.79 and 109.83 MAs (ascending 55 hourly and descending 100 weekly respectively) providing support. Usd/Chf is hovering just under 0.9300 within a tight range up to around 0.9325.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have pared earlier losses after hitting a one-month low in early European trade. Friday’s rig count saw oil drillers add rigs for the second consecutive week, a sign that US oil production could soon exceed 10mln bpd. The Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh stated that OPEC’s step to push up oil prices is short-lived and that any country that builds oil output capacity will ultimately win, while he also suggested to wait until the June meeting for a decision regarding an extension of cuts. In metals markets, spot gold trades higher, benefiting from its safe-haven status, albeit gains are relatively modest thus far with reports suggesting that Indian gold imports fell to a 17-month low in Jan. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures were seen lower in quiet trading conditions while nickel prices in London have recovered from recent losses.

On today's calendar, we will see the remaining January services and composite PMIs released in Europe and the US. Also due in the US is the January ISM non-manufacturing while in Europe the February Sentix investor confidence reading and December retail sales data for the Euro area will be due. Of most interest however will likely be ECB President Draghi's comments in front of the European Parliament.

US Event Calendar
  • Feb. 5-Feb. 9: MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.23%; Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.88%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 53.3, prior 53.3; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 53.8
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 56.7, prior 55.9

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ve had plenty of time to contemplate last week’s price action as my late flight home last night from Geneva was cancelled after several hours hanging about. We were left stranded after midnight looking for a hotel. Given I do an annual mapping the world’s prices document that shows Switzerland has the most expensive hotels in the world this was a little suboptimal. It’s slightly ruined a great weekend skiing. Fantastic conditions but very cold.

So good morning from the Holiday Inn Express Geneva Airport where I’m about to see how good the all inclusive breakfast is. Anyway, bond markets. If you thought last week was a shock in fixed income, just imagine what would happen if we actually saw CPI numbers consistently beat expectations on either/both sides of the Atlantic. Global bond markets are still set up for a long period of low inflation ahead, in our view. In our global 2018 outlook tour, the biggest push back to our view was that most didn’t believe inflation would misbehave as much on the upside in 2018 as we did, so I don’t think markets will be well prepared if it does.

One higher average US hourly earnings print (2.9% yoy vs 2.6% expected) doesn’t make a trend but as we’ve been saying for several months now, in our view, everything is set up for higher US inflation this year (eg labour market tightness, late cycle tax cut boost, traditional lag between growth and inflation etc.). If it doesn’t happen this year with all the forces present you’d have to tear up all your textbooks really.

In terms of what impact higher inflation would have. You only have to see last week’s price actions for some clues. 10yr Treasuries moved 19bps higher (+5.1bps Friday), the S&P 500 -3.85% (-2.12% Friday) and the VIX (from 11.08 to 17.31 on the week, 3.8 points higher Friday). In the process, 10yr Treasuries hit their highest yield since January 2014, the S&P500 had its worst day since September 2016 and the VIX climbed to its highest level since the week of the Trump election victory 15 months ago. So for equity vol we’ve already bypassed the whole of the 2017 levels now in early 2018.

This move to higher inflation and higher yields probably won’t be a straight line but the risks are building that 2018 could have moments of big adjustments and spikes in vol. A reminder that our credit forecasts for 2018 are for IG to widen 25bps and HY c.100bps due to higher inflation and yields.

On this, our colleagues in rates and economics have raised their end-2019 Fed Terminal rates to 2.75% (from 2.45%) and year-end 2018 10yr US yield forecast to 3.25% (from 2.95% prior).

The post payroll week is typical pretty light on data so perhaps the shutdown risks towards the end of the week (Thursday 8th Feb.) will come into view. The number two US Senate Democrat Mr Durbin does not believe a deal to protect the c700k of undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children can be reached by this Thursday, but at the same time “don’t see a government shutdown coming”, in part as he expects Senator McConnell to bring the DACA issue “….to a full debate in the Senate” later on. Elsewhere, Bloomberg has noted Republicans are looking at extending the government funding till 23 March. This is broadly consistent with our US economist’s view where they expect another 3-4 week continuing resolution as the most likely outcome. They note the risk of a shutdown this week is not negligible, in part as it would begin to bring the debt ceiling into the mix as the Congressional Budget Office has recently estimated that the Treasury will run out of cash in the first half of March. Though our economists think the probability of a debt ceiling breach is extremely remote, the mid-March deadline adds pressure to already complicated funding negotiations.

Staying with politics, in Germany, Ms Merkel’s bloc and the SPD will resume talks this morning to potentially form the next coalition government. Talks over the weekend were “very constructive” and achieved agreement on many topics, but some topics are still far apart which both parties want to discuss “thoroughly and with focus” on Monday morning. Elsewhere, the Handelsblatt reported that the EU commission may scrap structural fund payments to relatively wealthier countries such as Germany, France, Netherlands and Sweden. The change could save about €100bn over the next seven years.

This morning in Asia, markets are extending the selloff. The Nikkei (-2.13%), Hang Seng (-1.36%), Kospi (-1.19%) and China’s CSI 300 (-0.49%) are all down and UST 10y yields are up c2bp as we type. Datawise, both China’s January Caixin and Japan’s Nikkei composite PMI were modestly above last month’s readings, at 53.7 (vs. 53) and 52.8 (52.2) respectively. After the bell on Friday, Wells Fargo was down c6% after the Fed banned the bank from increasing its total assets beyond their size at the end of 2017 (US$1.95trn) until it cleans up its consumer and compliance issues. Elsewhere, the WSJ reported the CEO of JP Morgan has called some of the bank’s clients to assuage concerns and emphasis the bank’s plans to start a new healthcare company was only for its own staff.

Now recapping other markets performance from Friday. Key US bourses dropped 2%-2.5%, with all sectors in the S&P in the red, weighted down by softer results from energy companies and increased concerns from rising yields. Notably, the S&P was up 5.6% in January and +19.4% in CY17 so this is a small dent for now. In Europe, the FTSE (-0.63%), Stoxx 600 (-1.38%) and DAX (-1.68%) were all down, with the latter down the most since June 17 and erasing all YTD gains for this year.

In government bonds, both Bunds and Gilt 10y yields rose c4.7bp while peripherals rose 6-8bp. The US 5y breakeven rose to 2.04% (the highest since March last year) and the 2-10s curve steepened 7bps to 69.9bps (the highest since November). In currencies, the US dollar index rose for the first time in four days (+0.59%) while the Euro and Sterling fell 0.38% and 1.02% respectively.

In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.53% on Friday and is down further this morning. Elsewhere, Gold weakened 1.14% and Silver dropped 3.75% while other base metals were little changed (Copper -0.43%; Zinc flat; Aluminium +0.17%). Following on the strength of the USD, DB’s Alan Ruskin has looked back at history and noted that in an environment where 10y yields go up and equities go down, the USD tends to go up sharply versus the AUD and up substantially versus the JPY, but mixed to near flat versus the EUR. To summarize, past history does tend to support the thesis that when it feels like there is nowhere to hide between poor simultaneous trading conditions in the equity and fixed income markets, the USD and more recently the EUR have been the currencies to shelter in. Refer to his note for more details.

Away from markets and onto central bankers commentaries. Before we do this, it’s worth noting that Mr Powell will be sworn in at the Fed today. We hope he’s fresh from his 65th birthday celebrations from yesterday. On Friday, the Fed’s Kaplan’s hawkish comments partly accelerated the selloff in bonds after he noted “I think the base case for 2018 should be three (rate hikes) - it could be more than that, we’ll have to see”. Conversely, the Fed’s Williams has maintained his moderately dovish views. He noted that recent price data have been encouraging and that “we’ll continue to see inflation pick up this year and next”, but “given the economy is performing almost exactly as expected, you can expect policy makers to do the same”. Overall, he does not “...see an economy that’s fundamentally shifted gear” and that either three or four rate hikes are “both possibilities (that) are reasonable to think about, at this point, as options”.

Later on Sunday, former Fed Chair Mrs Yellen noted valuation in US equities were “high...but I don’t want to say too high”. Similarly, commercial real estate prices are now “quite high relative to rents”, but “it’s very hard to tell” whether it’s a bubble or not, although it is a source of some concern that asset valuations are so high. Overall she believes that if there were a decline in asset valuations, “it would not damage unduly the core of our financial system”, in part as the financial system is now “much better capitalised”.

In the UK, the BOE’s Deputy Governor Woods warned against loosening regulations post Brexit. He noted the Prudential regulation authority will “maintain standards of resilient in the financial sector at least as high as those we have today” and that “the idea that we would want to be sub-EU standard doesn’t bear scrutiny”.

We wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the January change in nonfarm payrolls was above market at 200k (vs. 180k expected), with the average payroll gains over the pastt hree months outpacing the last six months (192k vs. 180k). The average hourly earnings growth also beat at 2.9% yoy (vs. 2.6% expected) – marking the highest annual pace since May 2009. The unemployment rate was in line and steady for the fourth consecutive month at 4.1%. Elsewhere, December factory orders was above expectations at 1.7% mom (vs. 1.5%) while the final reading of the January Uni. of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised slightly higher at 95.7 (vs. 95 expected).

The Eurozone’s December PPI was in line at 0.2% mom while prior revisions lowered the annual growth to 2.2% yoy (vs. 2.3% expected). Italy’s January CPI fell less than expected at -1.6% mom (vs. -1.7%) and 1.1% yoy (vs. 0.8%).

The start of the week will see the remaining January services and composite PMIs released in Europe and the US. Also due in the US is the January ISM non-manufacturing while in Europe the February Sentix investor confidence reading and December retail sales data for the Euro area will be due. Of most interest however will likely be ECB President Draghi's comments in front of the European Parliament.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...bloodbath-spills-over-europe-us-sharply-lower
 

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Frontrunning: February 5

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/05/2018 - 08:25


  • U.S. Stocks Set for Sharp Drop at Open (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin Drops 10% as Cryptocurrencies Sink (BBG)
  • A decade after recession, a jump in U.S. states with wage gains (Reuters)
  • Democrats See Campaign Issue in House GOP Memo Alleging Bias (BBG)
  • Trump accuses House intel panel's top Democrat of leaking information (Reuters)
  • How Spiking Bond Yields Could Topple a Stock Market Rally (BBG)
  • Tech Giants Are in No Rush to Spend Overseas Cash (WSJ)
  • Here’s the Trump Tax Loophole Your Accountant Can Blow Wide Open (BBG)
  • Senators Aim to End Budget Impasse With ‘Dreamers’ Bill (WSJ)
  • Warring Conservatives Force May Into New Red Line on Brexit (BBG)
  • Merkel, SPD Push Ahead in Government Talks After Missed Deadline (BBG)
  • House to Consider Releasing Democrats’ Surveillance Memo (WSJ)
  • Broadcom sweetens Qualcomm bid, calling it the final offer (Reuters)
  • The Latest Victim of China’s Great Firewall: Cryptocurrency Websites (WSJ)
  • Dear Jay: High-Powered Advice for the Incoming Fed Chairman (BBG)
  • Japan’s Famed Manufacturing Model Is Facing a Crisis (WSJ)
  • Samsung Heir Lee Freed After Court Suspends Jail Term (BBG)
  • Euro-Area Companies Boost Jobs as Output Nears 12-Year High (BBG)
  • Banks Double Down on Branch Cutbacks (WSJ)
  • Microsoft Says It’s True: Cat Videos Distract Workers (BBG)
  • U.S. consumer protection official puts Equifax probe on ice (Reuters)
  • Erdogan and pope discuss Jerusalem as scuffles break out near Vatican (Reuters)
  • Jury to hear opening statements in Waymo-Uber trial over autonomous car secrets (Reuters)
Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

- Broadcom Ltd plans to raise its offer for Qualcomm Inc to around $120 billion, a person familiar with the matter said, a move aimed at increasing pressure on the takeover target in what would be the largest-ever technology deal. on.wsj.com/2nErz4s

- Apple Inc's streaming-music service, introduced in June 2015, has been adding subscribers in the U.S. more rapidly than its older Swedish rival Spotify—a monthly growth rate of 5 percent versus 2 percent—according to people in the record business familiar with figures reported by the two services. on.wsj.com/2nDM3ub

- British wireless giant Vodafone Group Plc said it is in talks to acquire European assets from Liberty Global Plc , John Malone's international cable company. on.wsj.com/2nz6U20

- Center-right candidate Nicos Anastasiades was comfortably re-elected president of Cyprus in a runoff election on Sunday, beating rival Stavros Malas, an independent backed by Communist party AKEL. on.wsj.com/2nEbegc

- The Federal Reserve's unprecedented move to handcuff growth at Wells Fargo & Co sent a message that boards of directors, not just management, will be held accountable when big banks fail to manage risks. on.wsj.com/2nCkEc1


FT

The UK’s top banking supervisor has warned against a “bonfire of the regulations” after Brexit, despite Eurosceptics calling for a more competitive regime when Britain leaves the EU.

China’s ecommerce giant JD.com Inc plans to challenge Amazon.com Inc in Europe as early as 2019, aiming to be ubiquitous across the continent within “a few years”, says the company’s chief.

The chief executive of International Airlines Group , which owns British Airways, Heathrow’s biggest single customer, has stepped up its stinging attack on high cost of expansion at the airport, calling for the break-up of Heathrow’s monopoly as a way to cut costs.

NYT

- DC Entertainment, the home of Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman and a legion of other heroes, is planning two new graphic novel imprints aimed at younger readers. DC Zoom will feature stories for middle school readers, and DC Ink will focus on young adults. (nyti.ms/2nIiZRz)

- A group of Silicon Valley technologists who were early employees at Facebook Inc and Alphabet Inc's Google are creating a union of concerned experts called the Center for Humane Technology to educate students, parents and teachers about the dangers of technology, including the depression that can come from heavy use of social media. (nyti.ms/2E24D9R)

- Amtrak suffered its third high-profile crash in less than seven weeks early Sunday when a passenger train traveling on the wrong track slammed into a stationary freight train in South Carolina, killing two people and intensifying worries about the safety and reliability of passenger rail service in the United States. (nyti.ms/2nIWXyh)


Britain

The Times

Facebook Inc is close to signing a deal for a new British headquarters at the King's Cross redevelopment in London. The company is finalising outline terms with King’s Cross Central, which is majority-owned by the Australian Super pension fund. bit.ly/2E0cHYu

One of Capita Plc's shareholders, Royal London Asset Management, said it had been privately raising concerns about Capita's weak governance for a number of years and had repeatedly voted against pay deals. bit.ly/2E0e1uq


The Guardian

The collapse of Carillion Plc is expected to trigger a rise in the number of construction companies going bust as subcontractors in its supply chain miss out on payment, a leading accountancy firm has warned. bit.ly/2E1aps8

Pinewood, the film studio behind the James Bond and Star Wars franchises, has expressed interest in building a new site in east London, as the British film industry struggles to accommodate demand for TV and blockbuster shoots. bit.ly/2E2lbOW

The Telegraph

One of Britain's top think tanks has upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK economy, in a move that threatens to deal another blow to widespread predictions that Brexit would deliver a serious shock to Britain. bit.ly/2E2lTf4

Lloyds Banking Group Plc has become the first to announce a ban on customers using credit cards to buy Bitcoin amid fears they could run up huge losses. bit.ly/2E2VvBT

Sky News

Trinity Mirror Plc and Northern & Shell will clinch a 127 million pound deal to sell the Daily Express to the publisher of the Daily Mirror. bit.ly/2DY32l8

The Independent

The Civil Aviation Authority has announced a consultation into airlines' seating policies, following a survey in which 18 per cent of passengers said they had been separated from their travelling companions when they chose not to pay to sit together. ind.pn/2E2mgX0

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/frontrunning-february-5
 

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Key Events In The Coming Week: New Fed Chair, BOE, RBA And Brexit

by Tyler Durden
Mon, 02/05/2018 - 08:53


In the traditional post-payrolls data lull, traders will pay attention to central bank meetings out of the UK, Australia and New Zealand, the US non-mfg ISM and the swearing in of new Fed chair Jay Powell both on Monday, as well as ongoing Brexit negotiations.

Key Weekly Events courtesy of RanSquawk
  • Monday: Brexit Negotiations Round Begins
  • Tuesday: RBA Monetary Policy Decision, UK Services PMI (Jan)
  • Wednesday: New Zealand Labour Market Report (Q4)
  • Thursday: BoE Monetary Policy Decision & QIR, RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision, Chinese Trade Balance (Jan)
  • Friday: Canadian Labour Market Report (Jan), RBA Statement on Monetary Policy


As BofA notes, there are three central bank meetings on the calendar this week. The BoE meets on Thursday, with no change expected in terms of communication. The BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report is expected to sign up to the market curve with three more hikes in three years, upgraded from November's guidance of two in three.

Look out for the RBA rates meeting on Tuesday and quarterly statement on monetary policy on Friday. BofA economists expect the RBA to remain on hold with no major changes to forecasts. Given 4Q CPI data, the RBA can be patient before moving policy to more normal settings. The communications will be examined for any signal around the timing of rate hikes. Recent data suggests the RBA could be moving towards a more hawkish stance.

Lastly, the RBNZ holds a rates meeting and forecast update this week. Policy is expected to remain unchanged, with recent misses on inflation risks pulling down near-term forecasts. This is the last forecast update before Orr takes over the Governorship.

* * *

A breaking of key events by region:

North America

There are no tier one releases due from the US during the week. Across the border in Canada focus will fall on January’s labour market report due on Friday. Consensus looks for headline jobs growth to slow to 1K from December’s 78.6K, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.0% from the 5.7% seen in January. Alongside its latest monetary policy decision (where it hiked as expected) the Bank of Canada noted that “labour force participation and hours worked are showing promising signs. Recent data shows that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated. Wages have picked up but are rising by less than would be typical in the absence of labour market slack.” On the wage front RBC notes that “wage growth has picked up but remains a bit low relative to the unemployment rate at 2.9% Y/Y for permanent workers. In any case, the BoC’s recently introduced wage-common measure discounted the LFS wage growth figure in favour of less timely values from productivity, national accounts, and establishment employment data.”

Other releases of note: Monday: US Services & Composite PMIs (Jan, F), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) Tuesday: US Trade Balance (Dec), Canadian Trade Balance (Dec), US JOLTs Job Openings (Dec), Canadian Ivey PMI (Jan)

Europe

There are no tier one releases due from the region during the week.

Other releases of note: Monday: Eurozone Services & Composite PMIs (Jan, F), Eurozone Retail Sales (Dec) Wednesday: German Industrial Production (Dec)

UK

Early focus will fall on Brexit negotiations, with EU chief negotiator Barnier due to visit UK Brexit Minister Davis in London as the next round of talks get underway on Monday.

The first Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision of 2018 will conclude on Thursday, with consensus looking for the BoE to stand pat, with a 9-0 vote. The noted risk to consensus is that either/both hawks within the MPC (Saunders and McCafferty) cast a dissenting vote in favour of another hike. The decision will be accompanied by the latest Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). Since the BoE last convened, official statistics revealed that the UK economy expanded by 0.5% Q/Q in Q4 (against the BoE’s forecast of 0.4% in November). On the inflation front, CPI has peaked (for now), oil prices have risen by circa 13% and the GBP has moved higher on a trade weighted basis.

Citi suggests that “new BoE forecasts may reflect somewhat stronger growth and higher inflation rates, although the Bank will likely remain cautious due to Brexit uncertainty” (November’s QIR can be found here). Citi also posits that “the MPC’s supply assessment could lead to higher slack estimates, which would be dovish. But also lower potential growth. That would set a lower speed limit and thus be hawkish.” BoE rhetoric since the last meeting has towed the line, in that it is consistent with the view portrayed in November’s QIR. Governor Carney has noted that wages are picking up, but conceded that they are not growing spectacularly, he also reiterated that he expects investment in the UK to pick up in 2019. The Governor has also suggested that inflation pass through due to the exchange rate shock has further to go, and that he expects inflation to remain above 2% in the near future. Carney also stressed that any unwind of QE will be well telegraphed when the time comes.

Elsewhere BoE hawk Saunders noted that it is likely that interest rates will need to rise further over time, but any further tightening will be limited and gradual. Saunders also noted that Brexit could push BoE policy in either direction and reiterated that he expects the labour market to continue to tighten. Finally, BoE newcomer Tenreyro stated that, at the December meeting, she saw ‘ample time’ before the BoE would need to raise rates again.

Asia-Pacific

Early focus in China will fall on Monday’s Caixin Services PMI. As ever, there are no expectations; the prior release stood at 53.9, while the latest official survey came in at 55.0. In December, survey collators Caixin noted that “the expansion in new business picked up for the second consecutive month. Prices charged increased at a slightly slower rate in December, while input prices rose at the joint-fastest pace since February 2013.”

The other release of note in China will come on Thursday in the form of the trade balance, with consensus looking for USD 54.00bln from USD 54.69bln last time out.

In Australia focus will fall on Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision. Consensus looks for the RBA to stand pat, with only one of the 48 surveyed by Reuters looking for a 25bps hike. The recent Q4 inflation headline was slightly softer than expected, however, the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean metric held steady at 1.8% Y/Y, as it remained below the bottom end of the RBA’s 2-3% band.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will convene and issue its first monetary decision of 2018 on Thursday, with all of those surveyed expecting the central bank to stand pat. Most believe that interim Governor Grant Spencer will act as a placeholder, before Adrian Orr assumes the role in March. As a result, consensus looks for the Reserve Bank to maintain its balanced assessment and to emphasise that interest rates are likely to remain low for a considerable period of time.

* * *

Courtesy of Deutsche, here is a summary of key daily events in the coming week:

  • Monday: The start of the week will see the remaining January services and composite PMIs released in Europe and the US. Also due in the US is the January ISM non-manufacturing while in Europe the February Sentix investor confidence reading and December retail sales data for the Euro area will be due. Of most interest however will likely be ECB President Draghi's comments in front of the European Parliament.
  • Tuesday: A fairly quiet day all round with December factory orders data in Germany the only release of note in Europe, while in the US the December trade balance and JOLTS job openings data is scheduled to be released. Away from that it'll be worth keeping an eye on Fed Bullard's comments when he speaks in the afternoon on the US Economy and Monetary Policy, while the ECB's Weidmann speaks in the morning. General Motors and Walt Disney are due to report earnings.
  • Wednesday: The data calendar continues to remain fairly sparse with December industrial production in Germany, December trade data in France and December consumer credit data in the US the only releases of note. China should also release January foreign reserves data at some stage. However there is plenty of central bank speak due with the ECB's Nouy and Lautenschlaeger speaking in Frankfurt in the morning, while the Fed's Kaplan, Dudley, Evans and Williams are all due to speak throughout the day.
  • Thursday: The BoE should be the highlight on Thursday with the MPC meeting due around midday. The latest inflation report will be released alongside and Governor Carney will then follow with his press conference. Away from that the most signficant data due out is most likely to be the January trade numbers in China, while December trade data in Germany and the latest weekly initial jobless claims data in the US are also due. The Fed's Kashkari and Harker are also slated to speak in the afternoon at separate events, while the ECB's Mersch, Praet and Villeory will speak. AIGand CVS Health are due to report earnings.
  • Friday: We finish the week with more important data out of China with the January CPI and PPI prints due out in the early morning. In Europe we'll get December industrial production data out of the UK and France, with trade numbers also due in the former, while across the pond in the US the only data of note is December wholesale trade sales. The Fed's George is also due to speak in the early morning.

Finally, focusing just on the US, here is a chart summary of the key events this week from BofA:



And a detailed breakdown with consensus estimates from Goldman:

The key economic release next week is the ISM non-manufacturing survey on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be sworn into office Monday morning, and there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by other Fed officials this week.

Monday, February 5

  • 09:00 AM Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sworn in: Federal Reserve Board Governor Jerome Powell will be sworn in as Chairman of the Board of Governors at approximately 9 a.m. Monday in a private ceremony.
  • 09:45 AM Markit US Services PMI (consensus 53.3, last 53.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, January (GS 57.0, consensus 56.5, last 55.9): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index rose 1.1pt in January. Regional non-manufacturing surveys were mixed in January, with moderate gains in the Dallas and New York Fed surveys while the Philadelphia and Richmond surveys deteriorated but remained in positive territory. Overall, our non-manufacturing tracker edged up 0.2pt in January to 57.2.
  • 02:00 PM Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, 2018Q1: The Fed will release results and a memo from its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending practices. The 2017Q4 release showed little change in bank lending practices over the previous quarter, with a modest share of banks easing lending standards for commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans. Since the last survey, US bank loan growth slowed with commercial and industrial loans growing at their slowest year-over-year pace since 2011.
Tuesday, February 6

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, December (GS -$52.2bn, consensus -$52.0bn, last -$50.5bn): we expect the trade balance to widen by $1.7bn to -$52.2bn in December. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a widening trade deficit in goods, and we expect a rebound in services imports in December.
  • 08:50 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a presentation on monetary policy and the US economic outlook at a conference in Lexington, Kentucky. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, December (last 5,879k)

Wednesday, February 7

  • 08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will speak on a panel at an event titled “Banking Culture: Still Room for Improvement” in New York.
  • 03:00 PM Consumer credit, December (consensus +$19.7bn, last +$28.0bn)
  • 05:20 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give remarks at a luncheon in Honolulu. Audience Q&A is expected.

Thursday, February 8

  • 04:50 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a Q&A session in Frankfurt. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 3 (GS 230, consensus 232k, last 230k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 27 (consensus 1,933k, last 1,953k): We estimate initial jobless claims remained flat in the week ended February 3, as the trend appears to have declined as weekly readings remained low, even after the seasonally volatile start-of-year period. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – rose in the previous week, and claims in Missouri appear slightly elevated.
  • 09:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a Q&A discussion in Pierre, South Dakota. Audience Q&A is expected.
  • 09:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will speak on the economic outlook at an event in Wichita, Kansas. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, February 9

  • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, December final (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldma, Ransquawk

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/key-events-coming-week-new-fed-chair-boe-rba-and-brexit

 

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Asian Metals Market Update: February-5-2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
The big question is if has gold topped out for the short term. Traders are expecting a March interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve after nonfarm payrolls. My 2018 analysis is based on four interest rate hikes this year. I expect gold price to rise despite four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Only the pace of rise and pace of fall will not be as per trader expectation. Asian gold demand will be the key today. If there is lackluster Asian gold demand today, then gold can see more price correction.
 

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New LNG Terminals Get Smaller

February 5, 2018 by Reuters


A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker is tugged towards a thermal power station in Futtsu, east of Tokyo, Japan, November 13, 2017. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

by Julie Gordon (Reuters) – The liquefied natural gas market is growing every year, but the LNG terminals that ship and receive the fuel are shrinking.

The booming sector’s next-generation infrastructure is being designed for a emerging-market buyers that want smaller volumes on shorter, more flexible contracts.

LNG export terminals, where the gas is liquefied and put on vessels for shipping, have traditionally been massive, custom-built facilities that cost tens of billions of dollars. And so to justify the investment, they have typically required equally massive, long-term supply deals, often lasting a decade or more.

Numerous terminal projects on the horizon, by contrast, are new modular-style designs built to snap together like Legos, allowing for small to mid-scale liquefaction or regasification plants that can be expanded if and when demand grows.

The first next-generation liquefaction plant is under construction in the U.S. state of Georgia and is expected to begin operating mid-year.

These facilities, with far smaller liquefaction units – known as trains – are “more consistent with market conditions,” said John Baguley, chief operating officer of Australia-based LNG Ltd, which has proposed mid-scale LNG plants in the United States and Canada.

The new designs reflect a maturing market with a more diverse base of customers that will drive future growth.

In 2008, the average contract was for 18 years and more than 2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). By 2016, it had dropped to less than eight years and less than 1 Mtpa, with new buyers in emerging markets like China, India and Pakistan seeking flexibility due to market uncertainty.

These new buyers are fueling small utilities and industrial users such as fertilizer plants and factories, said Alfred Moujaes, Houston President for Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific Company. The firm is building small, modular plants for LNG buyers, who need to convert the liquefied fuel back to a gas form after shipping.

Typically, such markets will be small at first, but the hope is that demand will grow as additional customers convert to LNG, Moujaes said. The modular plants allow terminals to grow with the market.

Demand for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, has taken off in recent years as it is a cleaner fuel than oil or coal, and abundant supply has driven its price sharply lower.

Overall global consumption of LNG rose to 33.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2016, about 10 percent of total natural gas usage; it is expected to grow by 75 percent by 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The United States, with its abundant supply of pipeline gas and well-developed energy hubs such as the U.S. Gulf Coast, is emerging as a dominant global producer.

U.S. export capacity has shot up from less than 2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2015 to 18 Mtpa in 2017, and is projected to top 77 Mtpa by 2022, transforming the United States into the world’s No. 2 exporter behind Australia.

In 2005, just 15 countries imported LNG; now there are 39, with another eight expected to hit the market by 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

TINY TRAINS
The new style of North American liquefaction projects will be built in Asia before being shipped to the United States for assembly. At the heart of these new terminals are modular trains which produce just a fraction of the LNG of a traditional train.

LNG Ltd has proposed four 2-Mtpa trains at its Magnolia project in Louisiana, while Tellurian Inc is planning up to 20 1.38-Mtpa trains at its Driftwood project, also in Louisiana.

That compares to Cheniere Energy’s four 4.5-Mtpa trains now operating at its 18-Mtpa terminal in Sabine Pass.

With modular trains, companies hope to avoid the delays and cost overruns that have dogged custom mega-projects like Chevron Corp’s Wheatstone and Gorgon projects in Australia.

Another large terminal, Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG project in Louisiana with three 4.5-Mtpa trains, has been delayed to 2019 after originally targeting a launch this year.


While modular designs allow more flexibility, some experts question whether they will ultimately cost less to build and be as easy to expand as promised, noting the technology is unproven.

“The issue that everybody is wrestling with is, does that really save you money?” said Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at shipbroker Poten and Partners.

The first such facility in the U.S. will provide a test case. The $2 billion Elba Island project, being built in Georgia’s Chatham County by Kinder Morgan, will have 10 trains and export capacity of just 2.5 Mtpa.

The technology is attractive enough that Cheniere has proposed a cluster of seven 1.36-Mtpa trains for a project being constructed in Corpus Christi, Texas, in addition to other, much larger liquefaction units.

Michael Wortley, Cheniere’s CFO, said in an interview that the company still believes traditional large-train designs work well. But it wanted to explore smaller-train technology, he said, to make sure “we weren’t missing anything.”

Reporting by Julie Gordon; Editing by David Gaffen and Brian Thevenot

Filed Under: Ports Tagged With: lng terminal

http://gcaptain.com/new-lng-terminals-get-smaller/
 

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Livestock Carrier Escapes Brazil’s Live Animal Export Ban

February 5, 2018 by Reuters


by José Roberto Gomes (Reuters) – A Brazilian federal court late on Sunday lifted an injunction blocking the shipment of around 25,000 cattle from the port of Santos, allowing for the individual cargo to leave port but leaving in place a broader ban on shipments of live animals.

The initial injunction had been granted on behalf of an animal rights group known as Fórum Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Animal, which had argued that long-distance shipping practices amount to animal cruelty, according to the court ruling.

The shipment has now left port and is headed to Turkey, according to a spokesman for Minerva SA, the Brazilian meatpacker that sold the animals to a client in that country. The journey generally takes 16 days.

Shipment of live animals from Brazil remains forbidden after a lower court imposed an injunction on Friday.

Originally 27,000 head were supposed to be shipped on Feb. 1, but the injunction that prevented the ship’s departure also led to some of the animals not being loaded onto the Panamanian livestock vessel NADA.

Minerva said the lifting of the injunction only served to allow the NADA to leave Santos.

The animals left behind were placed in quarantine, the Minerva spokesman said. The exact location of the animals in Brazil could not be determined.

The ship set sail on Sunday, according to Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo, which operates Latin America’s largest port at Santos.

Reporting by José Roberto Gomes and Ana Mano; Writing by Ana Mano; Editing by Bernadette Baum

Filed Under: News Tagged With: brazil, livestock, livestock carrier

http://gcaptain.com/livestock-carrier-escapes-brazils-live-animal-export-ban/
 

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Singapore’s Sembcorp Marine Adds $1.5 Billion in 3 Weeks on Orders Outlook

February 5, 2018 by Bloomberg


File photo. Sembcorp Marine yard at Tuas in Singapore.

By Abhishek Vishnoi (Bloomberg) — Sembcorp Marine Ltd. has gained almost S$2 billion ($1.5 billion) in just three weeks — making its parent Singapore’s best-performing stock in the past month — as investors and analysts became more optimistic on the prospect of a potential surge in new orders amid rising oil prices.

The company, which is majority-owned by Sembcorp Industries Ltd., has received at least three rating upgrades from research firms this year. UBS AG and Nomura Singapore Ltd. upgraded the stock’s recommendation to buy this year, and OCBC Investment Research raised its rating to a hold from sell. Target prices from all three firms are sitting well above the 12-month average of S$2.12 from 20 analysts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Credit Suisse Group AG’s Gerald Wong said in a Jan. 15 report that the company’s management was optimistic about new orders and debt reduction in recent investor meetings, while Nomura called the company’s strategy a ” turnaround story” in its Jan. 19 upgrade. This was followed by a bullish note by DBS on Jan. 22 and an upgrade by UBS on Jan. 23 for similar reasons.

Sembcorp Marine 2018 Order Estimates S$ billion UBS 4 DBS 3 Nomura 2
January also saw more institutional buyers than sellers with funds including Deutsche Bank AG and BlackRock Inc. boosting their stakes in the company, Bloomberg data show.

Sembcorp Marine surged 52 percent this year, the second-best performer on the FTSE ST All Share Index that tracks almost all stocks traded in the city-state’s main board.

What’s the next catalyst for Sembcorp Marine? Earnings. It’s expected to report full-year financial results on Feb. 21 and its 61 percent owner Sembcorp Industries will report the next day.

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P

Filed Under: Offshore News Tagged With: Sembcorp marine

http://gcaptain.com/singapores-sembcorp-marine-adds-1-5-billion-in-3-weeks-on-orders-outlook/
 

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Dow plunges 1,175 POINTS in massive second day sell-off wiping the year's gains off the map
  • Dow briefly plunged nearly 1,600 points, before recouping half that loss within minutes
  • Markets closed with Dow at 24,345, down 4.60 per cent
  • Stocks took their worst loss in six and a half years and ended a period of record-setting calm for stocks
  • Market’s slump began on Friday as investors worried that signs of higher inflation and interest rates could derail the market’s record-setting rally


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5355027/Dow-plunges-1-500-points.html#ixzz56JxfdK1A
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
 

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Many in Thai Fishing Industry Fail to See Conditions as Slavery – Research

February 5, 2018 by Reuters


Photo: By CL-Medien / Shutterstock

By Sebastien Malo NEW YORK, Feb 5 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Thai fishing boat owners who trap workers on board ships and withhold wages often do not realize that is modern slavery, so authorities must ramp up their policing efforts, advocates say.

Research shows many fishing operators are oblivious that the grim conditions on board their ships amount to forced labor, according to a recent report.

Many operators know smuggling people across borders and forcing them to work at sea for long periods of time is wrong but see withholding documents or forcing them to pay off debts as acceptable, said the report by Issara Institute, a Bangkok-based anti-trafficking organization.

Thailand’s multibillion-dollar seafood sector has been the target of scrutiny in recent years following investigations that found slavery, trafficking and violence on fishing boats and in onshore processing facilities.

“Vessel owners exploit fishermen yet view themselves as benevolent patrons,” said the report, released last month, based on interviews with 75 Thai captains and large fishing boat owners.

The findings show a need for stronger efforts to improve the working conditions and bring the fishing industry in line with anti-trafficking laws, advocates said.

“It’s all going to come down to enforcement,” Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

The military government in Thailand has rolled out industry reforms since the European Union in 2015 threatened to ban its fish imports, but little has changed, Human Rights Watch said in a report also released last month.

Shawn MacDonald, chief executive of Verite, a charity fighting labor injustices, said the Issara findings provide insight useful for crafting incentives against forced labor.

“It’s really important that we understand their perspective so we can pull the right levers,” he said.

The world’s third largest seafood exporter, Thailand’s fishing industry employs more than 300,000 people.

About 25 million people globally were estimated to be trapped in forced labor in 2016, according to the International Labour Organization and rights group Walk Free Foundation. (Reporting by Sebastien Malo @sebastienmalo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women’s rights, trafficking, property rights, climate change and resilience. Visit http://news.trust.org)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

Filed Under: Maritime News Tagged With: commercial fishing, illegal fishing

http://gcaptain.com/many-in-thai-fishing-industry-fail-to-see-conditions-as-slavery-research/
 

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Erck Rickmers Sells Shipping Businesses

February 5, 2018 by gCaptain


Photo: E.R. Schiffahrt

Hamburg-based shipping magnate Erck Rickmers has announced he is selling his ship management and ship brokerage businesses to Bremen-based Zeaborn Group.

Effective January 1, 2018, Zeaborn Group acquired all shares in E.R. Schiffahrt, shipbroker Harper Petersen, and Rickmers Shipmanagement, for an undisclosed sum.

The new entity will manages a fleet of 165 container ships, bulk carriers and multipurpose vessels, with 360 shoreside employees, 5,000 seafarers, and major hubs in Singapore and Manila.

“E.R. Schiffahrt and Harper Petersen are well managed and profitable businesses. The combined entity will have a critical size to operate successfully in the competitive global market place,” noted Rickmers. “Consolidation among German ship management companies has long been overdue, but is needed in light of future market requirements. Zeaborn is pursuing a dynamic growth strategy that offers its customers and employees promising prospects.”

In a statement, E.R. Schiffahrt, which Erck Rickmers founded in 1998, said all staff will transfer to Zeaborn Group. The new company will remain the headquartered in Hamburg.

Meanwhile, Nils Aden, currently Chief Executive Officer of E.R. Schiffahrt, will be responsible for the enlarged ship management activities. Simon Aust will continue to be Chief Executive Officer of Harper Petersen.

Selling its ship management and brokerage units does not mean that the Erck Rickmers Group is saying farewell to shipping.

With a total of 34 vessels under the E.R.-flag, fully owned or jointly financed with investors, the Group retains a significant involvement in the maritime industry. Recently, the Erck Rickmers Group established a new company developing shipping investments for institutional investors under the traditional name Blue Star Group.

The business interests of Erck Rickmers are managed by E.R. Capital Holding. The Group is led by Jochen Klösges as Chief Executive Officer and is highly diversified with asset allocation focused on real estate development and ownership, private equity and ship owning.

Filed Under: Maritime News Tagged With: rickmers maritime

http://gcaptain.com/erck-rickmers-sells-shipping-businesses/
 

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Biggest DOW Drop In History
Junius Maltby


Streamed live 10 hours ago
The largest single day drop in history. Let's talk about it.
 

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Dow Plunge Record 1600 points: Is This A Crash?
SalivateMetal


Published on Feb 5, 2018
Computer selling? Automated?
 

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REALIST NEWS - Stock Markets Took A Huge Hit & Boosted Cryptos? Deepstate Playing Games?
jsnip4


Published on Feb 6, 2018
Join Coinbase to get into the Crypto game: https://www.coinbase.com/join/529f2c1...
Trade Cryptos LIKE A BOSS: http://www.cryptosclass.com

Where do I buy Silver from?
https://sdbullion.com/jsnip4

http://www.jmbullion.com/?utm_source=...

http://www.realistnews.net

DISCLAIMER: WHILE I SPEAK ABOUT CRYPTOCURRENCIES, TOKENS, PRECIOUS METALS, AND OTHER "MARKETS". I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISER AND I DO NOT CHARGE ANYONE FOR THESE YOUTUBE VIDEOS I PRODUCE EVERY DAY. THESE TYPES OF VIDEOS ARE BASED UPON MY OPINION ONLY. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN TRADING AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES.