• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

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Political Turmoil as Kennedy Retires, Markets Unaffected | Louis Cammarosano
SilverDoctors


Published on Jul 6, 2018
https://sdbullion.com
http://www.silverdoctors.com/precious...

What is going on with gold and silver? Cammarosano says they seem not to be able to break above their 200-day-moving-averages.

Trump’s policies may cause an economic boom, Cammarosano predicts. Will gold and silver rise when the economy is on the rise? Yes, he says, jewelry demand could keep gold and silver demand strong.
 

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Bond Market Signalling Rough Times Ahead
Silver Fortune


Published on Jul 6, 2018
The Fed is so focused on the trade war, EMs, Europe, etc., to realize that they may problem in today's economy.

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. Silver Bar at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

Support Silver Fortune through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/silverfortune


Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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Where Baby Boomers, Generation X and Millennials make the most – and least – money in the U.S., state-by-state

  • Median pay varies by generation across the US when comparing Baby Boomers, Generation X and Millennials
  • Baby Boomers consistently make more than their younger counterparts in every state in the country
  • Alaska has the best pay in the country for Baby Boomers, while Arkansas paid them the least of any state
  • Massachusetts paid the most for Generation X and Millennials, while the Northeast paid the best overall
  • Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi and New Mexico all tied for the lowest median pay for Millennials
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-Generation-X-Millennials-make-money-U-S.html
 

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How Buffett Did It: Building Berkshire Hathaway
Business Casual


Published on Jul 6, 2018
The first 500 people to use this link will get a 2-month free trial of Skillshare: http://skl.sh/businesscasual7
Use it to watch my new class on how the stock market works: http://skl.sh/investing-101

Support me on Patreon to get early access to my future videos: https://www.patreon.com/business_casual

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47th video of the Behind the Business Series.

For most of you, Warren Buffett needs no introduction: his track record speaks for itself. What makes Buffett unique among the world's richest men is that he made his fortune not by innovating in the tech industry or by inheriting billions, but by making successful stock picks for over half a century.

Despite his immense fortune, Buffett retains the humbleness of his upbringing. Born right at the start of the Great Depression, Warren saw the great poverty of the 1930s firsthand. He was lucky enough to be born to a congressman, Howard Buffett, who could provide for his family despite the crisis. Nevertheless, Buffett learned to value money from an early age.

In school his love of math and thriftiness naturally led to entrepreneurial ambitions. He sold Coca Cola to his fellow students, bought and operated pinball machines and eventually bought an entire farm to rent out. After graduating university he went to work for his favorite teacher, Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing.

Using Graham's teachings, Buffett made many successful stock picks and outperformed the stock market by a factor of 4. Ironically, Warren's only bad investment was purchasing Berkshire Hathaway itself, which at the time was a struggling textile company. Buffett bought Berkshire just to fire its CEO and later regretted the move; indeed, he sold the company's textile business later on and used it purely as an investment vehicle.

Today, Berkshire Hathaway is the world's largest conglomerate and Buffett is one of the richest men alive thanks to it.

Under the kind patronage of Nagabhushanam Peddi, Dan Supernault, Samuel Patterson, James Gallagher, Brett Gmoser & Roman Badalyan.
 

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Kenneth Ameduri: Trumps Economy & Next Generation AI
The Daily Coin.org


Published on Jul 7, 2018
Thanks for watching/listening - Subscribe, share, like

Visit https://thedailycoin.org for more original articles and news from some of the worlds best journalist.
 

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The Next Disrupter - Decentralized Health
The Daily Coin.org


Published on Jul 7, 2018
Thanks for watching/listening - Subscribe, share, like

One of the most important interviews I have ever conducted - please share far and wide.
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 07/08
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/links-7-8-18.html

TBP - 10 Sunday Reads 07/08
http://ritholtz.com/2018/07/sunday-reads-145/

SA - Market News Live Feed 07/08
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

AR - Sunday links: filtering out noise 07/08
https://abnormalreturns.com/2018/07/08/sunday-links-filtering-out-noise-2/

MtM - Macro Considerations for the Capital Markets 07/08
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/07/macro-considerations-for-capital-markets.html

SA - Weighing The Week Ahead: Inflation On The Horizon? 07/08
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4185891-weighing-week-ahead-inflation-horizon
 

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farm talk sunday July 8
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Jul 8, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
 

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Global Stocks Jump As Trade Fears Set Aside; China Soars, Dollar Slides


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/09/2018 - 06:50


Global markets are a sea of green this morning, with US index futures sharply higher to start the new week which sees the official start of Q2 earnings season on Friday the 13th, following solid gains in Europe and Asia in the aftermath of Friday's "goldilocks" jobs report whose strong payroll gains but weaker than expected wage growth further pressured the dollar and boosting Emerging Markets, while analysts said that traders took comfort in the lack of escalation in the trade war (although considering it only started on Friday, it is difficult to see just how it could escalate in following 48 hours).



As has often been the case in the past month, the market tone was set by China, whose Shanghai Composite index posted solid gains, led by insurers and banks, after Caixin reported that regulators may implement tighter regulations on wealth management products later than the market expected due to recent volatility. China's regulator had imposed stricter rules on asset management industry in April, and new regulations on wealth management products - including on investment targets, leverage - were expected to follow. "The delay of new bank wealth management rule can be slightly positive for sentiment amid market panic, as economic growth becomes the top priority for regulators,” Huatai Securities analyst Shujin Chen writes in note.

As a result of the delay, and following a note from local investment bank CICC which said that "A-share valuations and sentiment have hit the bottom after the market’s recent rout, offering medium- to long-term opportunity", the Shanghai Composite surged by 2.5%, its biggest one day jump since February 22.



Doubling down on the all-clear signal, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a strange statement which said that Shanghai-listed companies’ valuation is "at relatively low level, compared to that of stock markets in other major economies" and that valuation is becoming attractive after the latest round of sell- off. It added that the Shanghai exchange will continue to support qualified listed companies to buy back shares, as that can help boost investor confidence and stabilize market expectation. In short, the jawboning brigade was unleashed and the result may have helped Chinese stocks set a bottom for now, which was hit on July 6 when the SHCOMP dipped briefly below 2,700. In addition to verbal intervention, the lack of new trade war actions by either the US and China was seen by some as a reprieve to the recent tit-for-tat escalation, also helping boost sentiment.

The solid Chinese performance lifted the MSCI Asia Pacific Index which was up 1.2%, and on course for the biggest jump in a month.

Positive sentiment from Asia flowed through into the European session, if amid reduced liquidity and market activity, with the Euronext suffering a trading pause for some stocks after two market orders got stuck in the order book.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index was up 0.6%, headed for a fifth consecutive advance - the longest winning streak since March - led by miners and energy companies - as investors set aside concern about escalating trade tensions to focus instead on the upcoming earnings season. Citi strategists said European bank stocks offer a good buying opportunity as the sector is set to benefit from macro data stabilizing in 2H, political risk remaining at current levels and interest-rate expectations holding.



Commenting on Monday's equity bounce the head of Asia research at ANZ Banking Group, Khoon Goh, said that "despite tariffs on China imports into the U.S. now being officially implemented, markets have started the week on a better footing thanks to the absence of further escalation for the time being," and added that "the U.S. payrolls report on Friday, while strong, did not see any significant rise in wage growth, which was a relief to a market that was worried about the potential for a more aggressive Fed hiking path."

In the US, futures on the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all pointed higher and commodities and emerging-market equities found support from the weakening dollar, which dropped for the fifth day, the longest losing streak in nearly five months, following key technical breaks versus major peers.



Adding to the positive sentiment, the Chinese yuan which had been battered in recent days, jumped after the PBOC reported that China’s foreign currency reserves rose $1.51 billion to $3.112 trillion in June, rising by more than the highest Wall Street estimate, and easing fears that China has been selling reserves to stem the recent slide in the Yuan, and that there has been less intervention than expected as the yuan slid last month.



"So for now, no new U.S.-Sino trade news is good news for ... EM in general," said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, however adding that "our base case remains for trade tensions to get worse before they get better."

Elsewhere, after diving in early trading following news of the dramatic resignation of Brexit minister David Davis, the British pound climbed as on optimism Theresa May can contain the latest government crisis over Brexit. "David Davis resigned as Brexit secretary and the pound is holding up relatively well on the back of it,” CMC market analyst David Madden wrote in note. “This will put severe pressure on Prime Minister May, and there are questions being asked about how long she will last in the top job."

The the euro climbed to its strongest level since June 14 after German industrial production beat all estimates for May while the ECB’s Coeure said existing trade risks don’t have the potential to derail euro-zone recovery.

Further helping sentiment, the start of earnings season this week may prove a helpful distraction and divert attention from the trade war that’s kept global stocks under pressure.

US Treasuries slipped in the absence of a fresh escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict, with the 10Y yield rising 3bps to 2.85%; Germany’s 10Y bunds also climbed 2 bps to 0.32%, the highest in more than a week on the biggest surge in four weeks, while 10-year gilts rose 4 bps points to 1.267%, the largest climb in more than two weeks.

In Brexit news, following David Davis' resignation,Brexiteer MP Jacob Rees-Mogg was said to vote against UK PM May's Brexit plan, while there were also reports that Brexiteer MPs threaten to topple PM May and replace her with Jacob Rees-Mogg in anger at the PM’s Chequers deal.

Furthermore, Jacob Rees-Mogg more recently commented that UK PM May's Brexit plan must be bad if Davis cannot support it and that a serious mistake by PM May led to Davis quitting.

Oil traded mixed and WTI/Brent spreads widening, with Brent +0.75% and WTI -0.25%. WTI has broken through the USD
74/BBL & 200 DMA levels to the downside, with investors eyeing the 50 and 100DMA levels as key supports at USD 73.52/BBL and USD 73.49 respectively in the wake of increased supply form the US, as Baker Hughes noted an increased rig count for the first time in several weeks. Gold prices are up and being lifted to two week highs at USD 1,260/Oz by a softer dollar and short covering. London copper has rebounded from a close to 1 year low in the previous session, and is up 1.8% on the day as a weaker dollar has also forced short covering for the construction material.

Looking ahead, highlights include, ECB’s Praet, Draghi and Fed’s Kashkari, and consumer credit data. Helen of Troy and Couche-Tard are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,772.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 384.53
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 165.95
  • MXAPJ up 1.3% to 540.29
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 22,052.18
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,711.79
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 28,688.50
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.5% to 2,815.11
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,951.89
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,286.04
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,285.80
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $77.65/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,260.92
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.79
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.311%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1773
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 2.447%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.311%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was plunged into a crisis after Brexit Secretary David Davis and his deputy resigned over her plans to keep close ties to the European Union after the divorce. Dominic Raab, who campaigned for Brexit, will replace Davis, according to the government
  • Britain’s financial-services industry is battling a drop in foreign investment while some of its European counterparts enjoy big gains, according to a new study. Investment in Britain’s financial-services firms from abroad fell 26% last year, EY said in a report Monday
  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan will cap his years-long drive to transform Turkey’s government on Monday as he’s sworn in as an executive president with vastly expanded powers
  • Benoit Coeure said the ECB is alert to risks from trade tensions that are rapidly escalating, but its current monetary-policy stance is working well
  • U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo summed up his 27 hours in the North Korean capital Pyongyang as “productive,” but no sooner had he left than local media published a statement saying the U.S.’s “unilateral and gangster-like demand for denuclearization” risked upending ties
  • Bank of England policy makers are adjusting to an upheaval at the statistical office at the very point when they need as much clarity as possible to help decide whether to raise rates next month
  • If a U.S. or global recession is looming, it’s time to own the Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, U.S. dollar and Japanese yen -- and ditch emerging market currencies, according to analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • China’s foreign-currency holdings increased last month for the first time since March as the yuan slumped and trade tensions with the U.S. worsened
  • Japanese investors pared holdings of German sovereign bonds in May by the most since June 2015, while selling the most Italian debt in a year amid the political crisis that gripped Rome during the month
Asian stocks began the week higher across the board as the region followed suit to Wall St’s performance on Friday after a Goldilocks US jobs report. The broad appetite for risk saw all majors gains from the open with the ASX 200 (+0.2%) led higher by mining stocks including BHP amid reports BP is front running the bidding for its US shale assets and with Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) supported by a predominantly weaker currency. Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.5%) conformed to the upside with broad gains across the sectors in both indices and which followed the PBoC snapping its recent streak of liquidity drains, while focus in Hong Kong also turned to Xiaomi which declined over 4% in early trade on its debut due to valuation concerns. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as focus was centred around stocks and amid a lack of Rinban announcement, although downside was also stemmed as prices sat near their best levels since May and at close proximity to retest resistance around 151.00. China's Cabinet has issued a statement on expanding agricultural and resource related imports, promoting trade balance.

Top Asian News
  • HSBC Is Said to Poach BofA’s Top Asia Power, Utilities Dealmaker
  • Goldman Sachs Hires Bank of America’s Naraghi for Asia ECM Role
  • Bankers Quit Goldman, Citigroup for Biotech Riches in Hong Kong
  • China Stocks Rebound With Biggest Gain Since 2016, Yuan Climbs
European equities are higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%), with the FTSE (+0.1%) underperforming due to a higher GBP, as investors monitor developments in the UK following the resignation of UK Brexit Secretary David Davis. The current outperformer is the AEX (+0.8%), which is being lifted by a broker upgrade for index heavyweight Altice (+3.3%) at RBC as well as Orange being open to a potential alliance within their home market. Air France (+4.0%) reported improved passenger numbers for June vs. May, easing investors’ concerns about strike action that has been hitting the company. Renault (-2.3%) are currently struggling on the back of emission measurement concerns at their partner co. Nissan.

Top European News
  • Coeure Says Trade-War Challenge Isn’t Shaking ECB’s Path to Exit
  • U.K.’s Aging Nuclear Fleet Offers Target for China’s Atomic Tech
  • Daimler’s Emissions Issues Mount With Truck Engine Sale Stop
  • PAI Partners Boosts Ontex Offer and Will Start Due Diligence
In FX, AUD was the top G10 performer on a mixture of better risk sentiment overall, short covering and stops on a break of technical resistance, with Aud/Usd up through 0.7440-50 to just over 0.7475 and bulls now eyeing a Fib level just shy of 0.7500. GBP: Cable has recovered well from a wobble and brief retreat through 1.3300 in wake of David Davis’ resignation due to what he perceives to be a too soft EU withdrawal White Paper from the UK Government, with market contacts noting stops on a break of 1.3330 on the way to a 1.3360 high, and also noting stops vs the EUR at 0.8800 in the cross that is currently towards the bottom of a 0.8850-15 range. However, the single currency is fairing much better vs a generally soft USD following the weaker than forecast elements of last Friday’s US jobs report, with a Fib breached around 1.1720 and peak around 1.1780, opening up scope to 1.1800, while the DXY has extended losses to just below 93.800. TRY: The Lira is firmer and back over 4.5500 vs. Usd as traders await an announcement at 18.00 from the Erdogan Government on their cabinet line-up.

In commodities, oil is mixed and WTI/Brent spreads widening, with Brent +0.75% and WTI -0.25%. WTI has broken through the USD 74/BBL & 200 DMA levels to the downside, with investors eyeing the 50 and 100DMA levels as key supports at USD 73.52/BBL and USD 73.49 respectively in the wake of increased supply form the US, as Baker Hughes noted an increased rig count for the first time in several weeks. Gold prices are up and being lifted to two week highs at USD 1,260/Oz by a softer dollar and short covering. London copper has rebounded from a close to 1 year low in the previous session, and is up 1.8% on the day as a weaker dollar has also forced short covering for the construction material. BP is in the lead to acquire the U.S. onshore shale oil and gas assets of BHP submitting an offer worth over USD 10bln; according to sources.

Looking at today's calendar, we'll get May consumer credit data in the evening. Away from that, ECB President Draghi speaks to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels, BoJ Governor Kuroda will speak overnight at a Branch Manager's meeting, while the BoE's Broadbent will speak at a conference in London and the ECB's Nowotny will speak in Zurich. German Chancellor Merkel and Chinese PM Li Keqiang are also due to chair a meeting of cabinet ministers from both countries.

US event calendar:
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $12.0b, prior $9.26b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The most common 3 words heard in England over the last few days have been “It’s coming home” as people who previously thought the team would get knocked out around the quarter-final stage now suddenly think we’re world beaters. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle (and nearer to the former) but England’s remarkable World Cup adventure continues into the semi-final this week. England’s only two major semi-finals in my lifetime occurred at the World Cup of 1990 and the Euros in 1996. The former occurred the day before my last GCSE exam at school and I remember sitting in the exam hall devastated. I went to the latter game and enjoyed the pre-match entertainment too much to remember much about England’s early opening goal but had a sore head by the time of the German win on penalties. This time I think England will win the semi and lose in the final to France this coming Sunday where ironically I’ll be on holiday at the time! It could be unbearable.

So a busy finale to the World Cup but a fairly quiet week ahead for data. Indeed, the week following payrolls is normally quiet for data but US PPI (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday) will ensure that attention on markets is kept elevated ahead of the summer holiday season commencing. For CPI, the consensus for the core reading is for yet another +0.2% mom reading – the 33rd month in a row that we’ve had such a consensus (of which 18 have proven to be correct). The annual rate is also expected to rise one-tenth to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. Headline CPI is expected to come in at +0.2% mom and +2.9% yoy. Outside of this its mostly second tier US data this week.

Staying with inflation, China’s CPI (1.9% expected - up 0.1%) and PPI (4.4% expected - up 0.3%) are due tomorrow and will be a focus. On Friday China’s trade number will be worth a second glance as well given all the focus on trade at the moment

The Fed will also get a bit of attention this week too with the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress due out on Friday afternoon. It’s worth noting however that Fed Chair Powell won’t testify until the following week. Elsewhere US Q2 reporting season kicks into life on Friday with bank earnings from Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup. The S&P banks index has fallen -4.7% in the past month and -12.6% from its January highs, partly due to yields stalling and the yield curve flattening so it’ll be interesting to see if this has impacted the hard numbers. Prior to that there is only a small smattering of other earnings releases this week including PepsiCo on Tuesday and Delta Airlines on Wednesday.
As for politics, President Trump has a busy week ahead, starting with his participation at the NATO summit on Wednesday and Thursday, before travelling to the UK to meet PM May on Friday. The full day by day week ahead is at the end.

Turning to the weekend news, after securing cabinet approval for her proposal for a softer Brexit on Friday, PM May is expected to address Parliament today to reaffirm that “this is the right Brexit” plan. In terms of initial reactions, Trade Secretary Fox has publicly supported the plans and Foreign Secretary Johnson indicated he will stay on the Cabinet. However overnight, the Brexit Secretary Davis, his deputy Brexit Department Minister Baker and Junior Brexit Minister Ms Bravermann have all resigned, with the former indicating he could not be a “reluctant conscript” to PM May’s plans. Later on, PM May said she was “sorry” Mr Davis decided to quit while noting that “Parliament will decide whether or not to back the (Brexit) deal the government negotiates…”. This is an important couple of days for Mrs May as there is a chance that she will face a leadership battle which could throw the Brexit negotiations into further turmoil.

Elsewhere on the European side, the Irish PM Varadkar noted the proposal marked “real progress” but cautioned there are still many difficulties while the Austrian Chancellor Kurz noted the UK made an “important, positive step” forward”. This morning, Sterling pared back early gains on Davis’s resignation to be up c0.1%.

Now moving to some weekend trade rhetoric. On Saturday, China’s Premier Li has reiterated the country’s pledge to open up its markets, as he noted “opening up has been a key driver of China’s reform agenda, so we’ll continue to open wider to the world…” He added that “for foreign products which meet Chinese consumer needs, we would open the door wider…we would lower overall import tariffs to the Chinese market”.

Back in Europe, French Finance Minister Le Maire warned that “if tomorrow there is an increase in (car) tariffs (by the US)… our reaction should be united and strong…” and that “let it be known that if we’re attacked, we’ll react collectively and…firmly”. Meanwhile, the FT reported Mexico’s incoming Economy Minister Marquez “sees a possibility (for a NAFTA deal to be signed) maybe late September, early October”. Although she noted the deal would probably be a slimmed down deal where it would lock in changes already agreed but leave much of the original NAFTA agreement unchanged.

This morning in Asia, markets are rebounding strongly following a positive US lead from Friday, with the Nikkei (+1.39%), Kospi (+0.61%), Hang Seng (+1.52%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.65%) all up. Chinese bourses may have also been boosted by China’s securities regulator saying on Sunday that it plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges to attract more foreign capital. Datawise, China's June foreign reserves was slightly higher mom and above expectations at $3.11trn (vs. $3.10 trn expected) while Japan’s May trade deficit was narrower than expected at -304bn Yen (vs. -483bn Yen).

As for markets performance back on Friday. Risk assets were relatively calm and edged higher despite the formal implementation of higher US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese goods. European equities were modestly higher, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.20%), DAX (+0.26%) and FTSE (+0.19%) all up. The S&P rose +0.85% with all sectors up with gains led by the health care and tech sector (Nasdaq +1.34%). Meanwhile government bonds firmed slightly, with 10y bonds yields on treasuries and Bunds -0.7bp lower while Gilts underperformed following the Brexit uncertainties (+0.9bp). In FX, the US dollar index weakened for the fourth straight day (-0.46%) while the Euro and Sterling both gained c0.5%.

Quickly back onto trade, DB’s China economist Zhiwei Zhang noted China’s response to the US tariffs thus far signals a positive gesture. The statement released on Friday reiterated China’s commitment to reform and open up its market, improve protection of intellectual properties.

Most importantly, it promised to develop a good business environment for foreign firms and signalled that China may not retaliate beyond trade and target US firms doing business in China. The team noted the next thing to watch is whether and how soon the US administration will initiate a second round of trade war.

Following on with geopolitics in North Korea, there seems to be a difference in perspectives on how the latest US / NK talks have gone.

Bloomberg reported that North Korea released a statement describing the US demands as “gangsterlike” and “cancerous” while the US Secretary of State Pompeo noted “I was there for the event…..when we spoke to them about the scope of (nuclear) denuclearisation, they did not push back”.

We wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the June change in non-farm payrolls was above market (213k vs. 195k expected) with upward revisions to the prior month. In the details, growth in payrolls was broad-based, with the 365-industry diffusion index sitting at a solid 65.5 in June, while the average growth for total payrolls over the past six-months (215k) is modestly above last year (198k). Meanwhile the average earnings growth was below expectations at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.3%), leading to a steady annual growth of 2.7% (vs. 2.8% expected).

Elsewhere, the June unemployment rate rose 0.2ppt mom to a still low level of 4% (vs. 3.8% expected) as participation increased. The May trade deficit was slightly narrower than expected (-$43.1bn vs. -$43.6bn) and was the smallest nominal deficit since October 2016. Factoring in the above, the Atlanta Fed estimate of Q2 GDP growth is now at 3.8% saar while the NY Fed estimate closed unchanged at 2.8% saar. In Europe, Germany’s May IP was well above market at 2.6% mom (vs. 0.3% expected), leading to an annual growth of 3.1% yoy. Italy’s May retail sales rebounded to 0.8% mom (vs. 0.5% expected) while France’s May trade deficit was wider than expected at -€6.0bn (vs. -€5.1bn) as exports fell -2% mom while imports were little changed. Over in the UK, the June Halifax House prices index was above expectations at 1.8% yoy (vs. 1.6%) while the 1Q unit labour costs rose 3.1% yoy (vs. 2.9 previous), which was the largest increase since 4Q 2013.

Looking at today's calendar, we'll get May consumer credit data in the evening. Away from that, ECB President Draghi speaks to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels, BoJ Governor Kuroda will speak overnight at a Branch Manager's meeting, while the BoE's Broadbent will speak at a conference in London and the ECB's Nowotny will speak in Zurich. German Chancellor Merkel and Chinese PM Li Keqiang are also due to chair a meeting of cabinet ministers from both countries.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ade-fears-set-aside-china-soars-dollar-slides
 

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DB - Opening Bell 7.9.2019
https://dealbreaker.com/2018/07/opening-bell-7-9-2019/

Naked Capitalism Links 07/09
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/links-7-9-18.html

TBP - 10 Monday AM Reads 07/09
http://ritholtz.com/2018/07/10-monday-reads-61/

SA - Market News Live Feed 07/09
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

CWS - Morning News: July 9, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/07/morning-news-july-9-2018.html

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Wrench Thrown Into Brexit Plans 07/09
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4186021-wall-street-breakfast-wrench-thrown-brexit-plans

MtM - Possibility of a Soft Brexit Excites Sterling (too Early?) 07/09
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/07/possibility-of-soft-brexit-excites.html
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 7 9 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Jul 9, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 7 9 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Jul 9, 2018
 

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TVR [#524] 07-09-2018 END OF DAY REPORT: CRYPTO'S
ALGO CAPITALIST


Published on Jul 9, 2018
Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: July 10 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Political developments in the UK and the NATO summit will affect currencies as well as metals and energies. If gold and silver fall today, then physical buyers will be absent as they will be waiting for more correction. Today and tomorrow are crucial days for gold, silver and copper. They need to float over current prices to rise further. Sharp short-term corrections (if any) in gold and silver should be used to invest for the long term.
 

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Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Dollar Jumps, German ZEW Tumbles


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/10/2018 - 06:47


There is a tension to markets this morning: while yesterday's violent global rally prompted by a short-covering wave as trade tensions did not escalate over the weekend, has moderated, most markets are still firmly in the green this morning, with S&P futs approaching the 2800 level in Asian trading ...



... there is less conviction to bullish sentiment, perhaps as a result of a sharp upward reversal in the dollar, which after touching overnight lows early in the session, has since rebounded and is now trading at session highs, extending a recovery from a four-week lows hit Monday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, gaining for a second day as positioning took over as the prime market driver amid a lack of fresh catalysts.



And, looking at China first as so many do these days, the dollar strength was mirrored by nearly equivalent Yuan weakness, as the Chinese currency gave up gains after nearing 6.6 vs dollar in early trade, and was heading for its biggest loss in a week as the onshore yuan declined 0.26% to 6.6290 per dollar, earlier reached as high as 6.6008, after the PBOC strengthened its reference rate by 0.2% to 6.6259. The offshore CNH meanwhile, slipped 0.24% to 6.6393 after touching 6.600 at the start of trading.



In other key FX pairs, the pound faltered after Industrial Output missed but losses were limited as PM May looked likely to survive after cabinet resignations. The yen declined for a second day, falling to a seven-week low against the dollar and weakens against most G-10 peers, as gains in global equity prices fuel risk-taking appetite, pushing the USDJPY to 111.243.

Meanwhile, the euro dropped for the first time in four days versus the dollar, sliding to 1.17242 after nearly breaching 1.18 yesterday, pressured by data that showed German investor confidence slipped to its lowest level since 2012.



“We have seen a fair amount of short-covering in risk proxies as the dust settled over the latest blows in the trade war,” Said RBC's Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy. "The rally over the last few days is fragile as the market waits for fresh developments."

A basket of emerging market currencies also fell, while Turkey’s lira recovered some of yesterday’s end-of-day tumble as traders came to terms with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan latest power grab.

The dollar strength failed to reverse the "trade war rally", with European stocks climbing on Tuesday and U.S. equity futures pointing to another green open amid what the narrative has decided to define as a lull in the trade war, and focus on the start of what is expected to be another strong earnings season.

Europe's Stoxx 600 index advanced led by energy companies which outweighed a drop in telecommunications firms, leaving the firmer on lower-than-average volume, and crossing back over the 200DMA for the first time in a month.



Despite the return of Yuan weakness, Chinese shares closed higher for a third session, the longest stretch in a month, with tech and materials companies leading the advance after indexes fluctuated through most of the day. Eventually, the Shanghai Composite Index closes up 0.4%, after swinging between 0.5% gain and 0.5% loss, following Monday’s biggest rally in more than two years. Gains followed solid Chinese May inflation data, with China's CPI inflation rising to 1.9% yoy in June, in line with consensus, while PPI inflation increased further to 4.7% yoy from 4.1% yoy in May, modestly above consensus.



The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared earlier gains, closing fractionally in the red.

After freaking out over trade war last week, traders have now shifted their attention to Trump's Supreme Court choice and his planned trip to Europe, as well as the big banks which kick off earnings season later this week.

“Strong U.S. growth is leading the global expansion and powering corporate earnings, but uncertainty around the outlook is rising and financial conditions are tightening,” said Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc.

U.S. 10-year yield climbs 1bp to 2.86%. Treasuries slipped together with the yen and most euro-area bonds. Emerging-market currencies stayed under pressure and stocks traded mixed. Germany’s 10-year yields rose 2bps to 0.32%, the highest in two weeks while Britain’s 10-year yield jumped 4bps to 1.252 percent, the biggest surge in almost five weeks.

Elsewhere, crude rose above $74 a barrel in New York as U.S. stockpiles were seen declining for the fourth time in five weeks. The rise comes as supply concerns remain in the middle east, with the UAE energy minister saying it is time for extra supply to come into the market and that OPEC has enough capacity to offset output shortfalls. Most metals are softer this morning with gold slightly down on a rising dollar, that is recovering from near 3 week lows. Silver, Copper, Platinum and Palladium are all also negative on a higher dollar, with steel the only metal bucking the trend on unconfirmed reports of Tangshan production to be cut by 50%.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,789.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 385.06
  • MXAP down 0.04% to 165.76
  • MXAPJ down 0.07% to 540.04
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,196.89
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,716.13
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.02% to 28,682.25
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,827.63
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 36,204.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 6,258.10
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,294.16
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to 0.326%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1738
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.7 bps to 2.4%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.298%
  • Brent futures up 1.5% to $79.20/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,253.01
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 94.29
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • British Prime Minister Theresa May looked likely to survive any attempt to oust her over the government’s Brexit strategy for now, and is leaning on the biggest opposition party to help get the plan through parliament and counter a mutiny by a group of her own lawmakers
  • President Donald Trump moved to reshape the U.S. Supreme Court, filling the second vacancy of his presidency with Judge Brett Kavanaugh and potentially creating the most conservative court in generations
  • Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to cement his control over the economy, claiming the exclusive power to name central bank rate setters a day after naming his son-in-law to oversee economic policy
  • The world’s largest derivatives broker, TP ICAP Plc fired its CEO and warned returns will be lower than expected this year. The shares fell more than 30 percent in early trading
  • Mario Draghi said the improvement in euro-area inflation is on a self-sustained path as he struck a confident tone that the ECB can withdraw its stimulus despite the threat of a global trade war
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised China for opening up to foreign investment, drawing a contrast with trade conflicts burdening both countries’ relations with the U.S.
  • Russia’s Finance Ministry laid out its most ambitious borrowing program yet with a plan to raise almost 5 trillion rubles domestically over the next three years
  • The sharpest decline of China’s yuan since a devaluation in 2015 hasn’t fazed international bond funds, suggesting their diversification flows will be a useful stabilizing force for the nation’s policy makers
  • One gauge of recession risk with a “pretty good” track record over the last half century has just raised a cautionary signal, according to the Leuthold Group. For the first time since just prior to the 2007-2009 recession, premiums on the lowest-rated tranche of investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds have risen to 2 percent after being below that level, according to data compiled by the Minneapolis-based research group
Asian equity markets traded mostly higher on the momentum from the US where the DJIA notched its best performance in a month, and financials outperformed on optimism heading into earnings season. ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) initially took impetus from US and both opened higher although the Australia index later pared gains amid losses in its largest weighted financials sector, while Tokyo stocks remained firm on a weaker currency. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) conformed to the overall positive tone. The Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was choppy but ended positive despite continued inaction by the PBoC resulted to a CNY 30bln liquidity drain, while participants also digested CPI and PPI figures which either printed inline or firmer than expected. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued with demand weighed by the overall positive risk appetite and after the 5yr auction failed to support prices despite showing stronger interest with both b/c and accepted prices firmer than prior.

Top Asian News
  • MUFG Considers Job Cuts at Its Brokerage Business Overseas
  • Double-Digit Profit Growth Seen Yet Again for India Equities
  • China Bulls Keep Faith in Soaring Earnings After Stock Rout
  • Foreign Funds Keep Pouring Into China Despite Yuan’s Jitters
  • Ping An Is Said to Weigh Rival Takeover Offer for China Biologic
European equities are largely positive (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%), with the IBEX (-0.1%) currently the underperforming bourse, pressured by losses in BBVA (-2.5%), whom are being hit by falling Turkish fixed income prices in the wake of Erdogan’s seating, as a result of their exposure to this market. The CAC (+0.3%) is outperforming bourse, led by index heavyweight Airbus (+2.3%) on the back of a positive note by Bank of America. TP ICAP (-32.2%) shares are crashing after they announced their CEO is to leave his post, and reduced their synergy targets. 21st Century Fox (FOXA) is preparing a new bid for Sky (SKY LN) (+2.2%) that would value it at GBP 25bln, and top the offer made by Comcast (CMCSA), as according to sources. PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Q2 EPS USD 1.61 vs. Exp. USD 1.51, revenue USD 16.1bln vs. Exp. USD 16.05bln

Top European news:
  • U.K. Services Lift Growth in May in Rebound from Bleak Winter
In FX, there has been some calm after Monday’s UK political storm for the Pound as PM May resisted growing pressure and heightened prospects of a no confidence vote after the resignations of Brexit Minister Davis and Foreign Minister Johnson. Cable rebounded pretty firmly from just under 1.3200 to retest 1.3300 in the run up to a raft of data, while Eur/Gbp pulled back from 0.8875 before Sterling sold off again on much weaker than forecast IP and manufacturing output readings that ultimately stole the limelight from much hyped new monthly ONS GDP figures that were broadly in line with consensus anyway. Cable back near 1.3250 and the cross just shy of 0.8850. EUR - The single currency was also undermined by negative macro factors as the latest ZEW survey deteriorated much more than anticipated, albeit on heightened political uncertainty in July, some of which has dissipated, alongside rising concerns about global trade wars and in particular the tariff spat with the US. Eur/Usd has subsequently retreated from around 1.1760 to test layered bids ahead of 1.1700. TRY - The Lira has been trashed again as fears about changes in key cabinet roles by President Erdogan were realised with the appointment of his son-in-law to the newly formed and combined office of Economy and Treasury Minister, replacing two tried and trusted people – Simsek and Agbal. Usd/Try has been up over 4.7500, but currently around 4.7000.

In commodities, oil is currently up on the day, with WTI +0.5% and Brent +0.8%. Some traders are eyeing developments in the Knarr oilfield in Norway with Shell confirming it is to stop production due to strike action. This comes as supply concerns remain in the middle east, with the UAE energy minister saying it is time for extra supply to come into the market and that OPEC has enough capacity to offset output shortfalls.

Most metals are softer this morning with Gold slightly down on a rising dollar, that is recovering from near 3 week lows. Silver, Copper, Platinum and Palladium are all also negative on a higher dollar, with steel the only metal bucking the trend on unconfirmed reports of Tangshan production to be cut by 50%.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US we get the June NFIB small business optimism print followed by May JOLTS job openings data. Elsewhere US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will participate in the US-EU Energy Council. Finally, the ECB’s Visco, Lautenschlaeger and Angeloni as well as the BOE’s Kafetz will speak at separate events.

US Event Calendar
  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 106.9, prior 107.8
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,620, prior 6,698
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The best line I saw in doing the work for the EMR this morning was a joke on Twitter that suggested that Britain was turning into a "banana republic" in so far as it was seeing constant hot sunshine, a government in turmoil and a good football team. Indeed a month ago you would have probably got fairly decent odds on England still being in the World Cup longer than the current UK government and PM being in place, but it’s fair to say that this is now a crucial week for both. Indeed on an otherwise fairly quiet day in markets, the resignations of David Davis late on Sunday night followed by Boris Johnson yesterday afternoon have rocked the administration after what was a material change in emphasis from the UK government on negotiations towards continued EU single market integration following last Friday’s Chequers agreement. As a result it was an unsurprisingly busy day for Sterling traders. By mid-morning the Pound had touched an intraday high of $1.336 (+0.60%) which was the strongest since mid- June. However those gains were quickly wiped out after the Johnson resignation headlines hit as the market moved to the position that it could spark a confidence vote in May’s leadership. By the European close the Pound was trading below $1.32 before recovering in the US session as appetite for a leadership bid didn’t immediately seem high. This morning the Pound is slightly weaker at $1.3238 as we type, which represents a fall of c0.8% since Johnson’s resignation.

Staying with the story, DB’s Brexit specialist Oliver Harvey highlighted in a report yesterday that the path to a soft Brexit is now materialising faster than expected. He notes that while on paper a government crisis could be treated as a negative by the market, if this leads to a marginalisation of the hard Brexit wing of the Tory Party in negotiations, this would represent a meaningful positive. Indeed, at this stage it seems likely May will survive the crisis, leaving her in a stronger position to seek compromise with the EU27. Assuming May continues in office, markets should price a higher likelihood of a soft Brexit, and this should in turn be bullish for sterling. That said there are still risks. In particular, if May loses the support of the hard Brexit wing of the Conservative Party, legislation implementing Brexit could become problematic to get through parliament. Moreover, when the final deal is put before the UK parliament later this year, May would have to rely on the support of moderate Labour MPs should the Labour Party leadership choose to vote against. Reports yesterday morning suggest that the government is seeking to canvass support from Labour MPs for the plan.

It’s worth noting that last night May met with backbench MPs where she delved into a one hour Q&A session. For now the threat of an immediate leadership challenge seems to have eased with the Solicitor General Buckland indicating that “I think that meeting put to bed any idea of a leadership challenge….” while the head of Conservative Party Committee Mr Brady who handles the procedures for leadership challenges noted that he has not received enough signatures to trigger a confidence vote (48 needed), but added that “if the threshold were to be reached….people would know fairly quickly”.

Gilts also did a bit of a u-turn through yesterday’s session. 10y yields traded as high as 1.313% prior to the Johnson news but rallied about 6bps after the headlines hit, eventually finishing the day a more modest 1.5bps lower at 1.251%. It was a similar story at the short end where 2y yields actually finished 3.9bps lower, marking a 6.1bp rally from the intraday yield highs. The odds of an August hike also eased to 67% from c80% on Friday. Meanwhile the FTSE 100 finished +0.92% aided by weaker Sterling. Elsewhere the Stoxx 600 was up for the fifth straight day (+0.58%). US bourses also continued to ratchet higher.

The S&P 500 finished last night up +0.88% meaning it’s now jumped 2.6% in the three sessions since Independence Day last Wednesday. Financials led the charge with the Banks index closing up +2.73% for its best day since late March. That came as Treasuries sold off and the curve steepened slightly (a rare event of late). 10y yields ended 3.4bps higher and 2y yields 2.1bps higher with the 2s10s curve 1.3bps steeper as a result. In FX, the US dollar index firmed for the first time in five days (+0.12%) while the Euro was marginally higher.

This morning in Asia, markets are extending gains with the Nikkei (+1.03%), Kospi (+0.40%) and Hang Seng (+0.39%) all up, while Chinese bourses have reversed earlier losses to trade marginally higher. Datawise, China’s June CPI was in line at 1.9% yoy while the PPI was above market and rose to the highest in six months (4.7% yoy vs. 4.5% expected), with the pickup mainly due to higher energy prices.

Turning to central bankers speak. The ECB’s Draghi seemed relatively upbeat yesterday, indicating that “we’re confident that basically thanks to our monetary policy the inflation rate will converge to our objectives” and that despite heightened global uncertainties, “the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain broadly balanced”. Elsewhere, he reiterated the need to be patient and persistent in the ECB’s policy while warning that the risk now “mainly relate to the threat of increased protectionism”. Meanwhile re the issue of reinvestments of maturing debt that the ECB holds as part of QE, the ECB’s Coeure said that neither the Governing Council nor committees have discussed any details of an “operation twist” as he “sees it as a technical discussion, not as a major aspect of monetary policy when it comes to the maturities”. Finally, the ECB’s Nowotny said negative rates can’t be a permanent feature of monetary policy, as it should be applied only as needed.

Staying in Europe, German companies have signed a raft of agreements with Chinese partners at a meeting between Chancellor Merkel and China’s Premier Li. Mrs Merkel pointed to BASF’s $10bn investment on a second chemical complex in China and said it “shows that China’s market opening in these areas isn’t just talk, but action”. Meanwhile on the trade tensions with the US, she reiterated that “we should try to reach a deal, otherwise we’ll be forced to take action”.

Over in the US and ahead of this week’s reporting season, DB’s Binky Chadha expect a modest deceleration in S&P EPS growth, but rising consensus estimates point to a still solid EPS growth of 24% for Q2 vs. 26.6% for Q1. The team noted the bottom-up consensus EPS growth has moved up by 0.7% since early June. This marks the second quarter in a row of upgrades going into earnings season which is very unusual and only the 2nd time in 7 years. Meanwhile the upgrades have been broad based across sectors with the utilities sector the only exception. Refer to their note for details.

Finally in credit, Michal in our team has published the monthly report "Issuance and Fund Flows" which provides a one-page commentary followed by a detailed chartbook covering the EUR, GBP and USD IG corporate bond market structure, issuance and fund flows across DM and EM. Additionally, the report puts both issuance and fund flows in the IG space into a broader context of other asset classes, incl. the active/passive trends in fund management. You can download the report here.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the May consumer credit was above market and the highest in six months ($24.6bn vs. $12bn expected), supported by a rise in credit card and non-revolving loans. In Europe, the Euro area’s July Sentix investor confidence index was also above expectations and rose for the first time in six months at 12.1 (vs. 9.3 expected) while the June Bank of France industrial sentiment index edged up +1pt mom to 101 (vs. 100 expected). Meanwhile Germany’s May trade surplus was slightly less than expected at €19.7bn (vs. €20.2bn) as imports unexpectedly rose +0.7% for the month.

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe, we're due to get May IP and manufacturing production prints in France followed by May IP in Italy and May’s trade balance, IP, manufacturing production and construction output data all in the UK. Also worth noting is the U.K. Statistics Office publishing their first monthly estimate of GDP. Also out in the morning is Germany's July ZEW survey. In the afternoon in the US we get the June NFIB small business optimism print followed by May JOLTS job openings data. Elsewhere US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will participate in the US-EU Energy Council. Finally, the ECB’s Visco, Lautenschlaeger and Angeloni as well as the BOE’s Kafetz will speak at separate events.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-10/global-stock-rally-fizzles-dollar-jumps-german-zew-tumbles
 

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DB - Opening Bell 7.10.18
https://dealbreaker.com/2018/07/opening-bell-7-10-18/

Naked Capitalism Links 07/10
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/links-7-10-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 07/10
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TBP - 10 Tuesday AM Reads 07/10
http://ritholtz.com/2018/07/10-tuesday-reads-62/

CWS - Morning News: July 10, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/07/morning-news-july-10-2018.html

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Supreme Court Business 07/10
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4186281-wall-street-breakfast-supreme-court-business

MtM - May Survives to Fight Another Day, but Sterling's Recovery Falters 07/10
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/07/may-survives-to-fight-another-day-but.html
 

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Beyond Nord Stream 2: A Look at Russia’s Turk Stream project

Posted on July 9, 2018 by Lambert Strether

By Simone Tagliapietra, Research Fellow at Bruegel, Adjunct Professor of Global Energy at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe and Senior Researcher at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. Originally published at Breugel.

Since 2015, Nord Stream 2 has been at the centre of all European discussions concerning the EU-Russia relations. But as endless political discussions in Europe are being held on this pipeline project, the pipes of another similar Russian pipeline project – Turk Stream – are already being laid by Gazprom at the bottom of the Black Sea. This piece looks at these developments, analysing their strategic impacts on Europe.

For Europe, thinking about energy security means thinking about Russia. First in January 2006 and then in January 2009, gas pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine led to the halt of Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine – its primary transit route. This generated economic damages for Europe, notably in South-Eastern European countries heavily dependent on Russian gas for both electricity generation and residential heating.

Europe responded to these gas crises by adopting an energy security strategy mainly focused on reducing its dependency on Russian gas supply. The high priority given to Russian gas supplies arose because: (1) gas represents about one quarter of the European energy mix; (2) about one third of this gas is imported from Russia; and (3) in contrast to oil or coal, it is not possible to bring large amounts of gas to where it is needed if the corresponding infrastructure is not in place.



In the midst of the 2014 Ukraine crisis, concerns about a potential politically motivated disruption of all European gas supplies from Russia lifted again energy issues to the top of the European agenda and led to the creation of the EU Energy Union.

While Europe developed its energy security strategy, Russia also developed its own strategy, primarily aimed at maintaining its share in the European gas market in the future. To do this, Russia primarily intends to secure its supplies by diverting all its gas transit to Europe away from Ukraine by 2020.

In view of achieving this target, in 2015 Gazprom signed an agreement with major European energy companies to construct Nord Stream 2, a pipeline aimed at diverting away from Ukraine 55 billion cubic metres per year (Bcm/y) of gas transit, by expanding the existing direct link – Nord Stream 1 – between Russia and Germany.

Since 2015, Nord Stream 2 has been at the centre of all European discussions concerning the EU-Russia relations in general, and the European energy security in particular. But as endless political discussions in Europe are being held on this pipeline project, the pipes of another similar Russian pipeline project – Turk Stream – are already being laid by Gazprom at the bottom of the Black Sea.

Launched by Russia president Vladimir Putin in December 2014 during a state visit to Turkey, Turk Stream is a pipeline projected to deliver 31.5 Bcm/y of gas to Turkey and Europe. As in the case of Nord Stream 2, also this project is not aimed at carrying additional volumes of gas, but just to partially replace flows that currently reach Turkey and Europe through Ukraine.

Turk Stream comprises two lines, each with a capacity of 15.75 Bcm/y. Line 1 is designed solely to supply Turkey, while Line 2 is intended to deliver gas to Europe.

After a year of works, construction of the offshore part of Line 1 was completed on April 30th 2018; the onshore parts remain under works. With the construction of Line 2 also progressing, both lines of Turk Stream are expected to be finalised by the end of 2019.

However, due to EU anti-monopoly rules Gazprom, as a supplier, is prohibited from operating gas pipelines inside the EU. The Russian company is thus currently exploring potential alternative options with European gas grid operators for bringing the 15.75 Bcm/y capacity of Turk Stream’s Line 2 to European markets.

The first option would be to link Turkey and Austria with a pipeline running through Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary. This pipeline has been dubbed ‘South Stream Lite’, as it would roughly follow the path of the proposed South Stream pipeline, which was scrapped by Russia in 2014 following opposition from the European Commission.

Not by coincidence, elements of the original South Stream project are recently being revived by Bulgaria and Serbia. Bulgarian gas grid operator Bulgartransgaz recently acquired a series of assets with the aim of creating a Balkan gas trading and transport hub. Bulgartransgaz and Serbia’s Gastrans have also started to explore gas companies’ interest in utilising potential pipelines connecting Bulgaria to Hungary. From Hungary, pipes could run to Austria via planned or existing routes.

The second option would be to link Turkey and Italy with a pipeline running through Greece. The feasibility study for such a pipeline was conducted in 2003 by Greece’s public gas supply company DEPA and Italy’s energy company Edison. The development of the project – named Poseidon – was then covered by an intergovernmental agreement signed in 2005 between Greece and Italy.

When, in 2013, the group of companies operating Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II gas field – which constitutes the main source of the Southern Gas Corridor – chose the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to link the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) to Italy, the Poseidon project was eclipsed. It has only recently been revived, based on the potential opportunities of linking Turk Stream to Italy, as well as a potential pipeline running from Israel to Greece – the East Mediterranean pipeline – to Italy.

The third option would be to make use of the spare capacity of the TAP. The 800km-long pipeline – currently under construction – will serve to deliver 10 Bcm/y of Azeri gas to Italy, starting in 2020. However, the TAP’s capacity can be expanded to 20 Bcm/y with the addition of new compressing stations. The pipeline also has a physical reverse-flow feature, allowing gas from Italy to be diverted to South East Europe if energy supplies are disrupted or more pipeline capacity is required to bring additional gas into the region.

This flexibility could make the TAP a very attractive option for Turk Stream. However, considering that Turk Stream’s Line 2 is not intended to deliver an additional supply to Europe, but just to divert part of the existing supply that currently enters Europe via Ukraine, existing contracts between Gazprom and European partners – such as Italy – should also be taken into account.

In this regard, South Stream Lite could offer the most viable option for Gazprom, as it would not require the change of existing contracts with European partners, on which the delivery point for contracted supplies is set at Austria’s Baumgarten. Gazprom will certainly announce a decision on the preferred route very soon, as it targets first gas flows to Europe via Turk Stream as soon as early-2020.

The speed of these developments should not surprise anyone. Russia seeks to cut its current 90 Bcm/y of gas transit via Ukraine down to 10-15 Bcm/y after 2019. With Nord Stream 2 under fire from European policy makers, Turk Stream clearly becomes an essential bargaining chip for Russia in the ‘great-game’ of Ukrainian gas transit.

This entry was posted in Energy markets, Europe, Guest Post, Russia on July 9, 2018 by Lambert Strether.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/beyond-nord-stream-2-look-russias-turk-stream-project.html
 

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The Nine Essential Conditions to Commit Massive Fraud
Posted July 9, 2018 by Joshua M Brown



On October 28th, the day before Black Tuesday, the crescendo moment of the Crash of 1929, Time Magazine had a financier on its cover. At that time, virtually everyone in the international community had known his name all too well, although investors today probably wouldn’t recognize it. He was a confidant of kings and princes, dictators and captains of industry, a noted companion to the international movie star Greta Garbo and the close personal friend of President Herbert Hoover.

Little did anyone suspect that he was also destined to be be revealed as the biggest fraud in the history of Wall Street.

The more you read about financial history (and the more of it you live through), the more you start picking up on repeating patterns. This is not because the markets never change. They absolutely do. But people…people don’t change.

The dueling twin instincts of fear and greed are as old as the species itself and perhaps even older. We possess these instincts because they’re the reason we’ve made it as far as we have from an evolutionary standpoint. The woman who didn’t run from a sabretooth tiger with the rest of her clan did not pass on her genes. The man who never attempted to rise above the circumstances into which he was born through the pursuit of more resources probably wasn’t the most popular mate in the available gene pool.

So we’ve got these two inalienable parts of our personalities and biochemical makeup. They make us do things. We have some self-control, but not fully. As William aka the Man in Black from Westworld asks rhetorically this season, “What is a person but a collection of choices? Where do those choices come from? Do I have a choice? Were any of these choices ever truly mine to begin with?”

The greed side of this equation is worth discussing today because we’re in what could be the tenth straight year of positive gains for the US stock market and a lot of what’s happening now will look horrendously foolish when the cycle turns. There will be all sorts of revelations to come when the proverbial tide goes out (and, as Warren Buffett says, we find out who has been swimming naked).

Not all of the investment losses to come will be a result of fraud or cheating; good assets decline in value too. But undoubtedly, the most memorable debacles will involve fraud and cheating, to go along with the customary lack of attention being paid to details and the general sense of risk-free delusion. Almost everyone saw losses during the post-tech bubble period of the early 2000’s, but Worldcom and Enron are the touchstone moments we recall with the most ease. There were plenty of losses to go around in the wake of the financial crisis, but the reckless confidence games being played by Lehman Brothers and Bernie Madoff stand head and shoulders above the rest of the disaster in our collective consciousness.

When it comes to the massive frauds – the kind that wipe out tens of billions of dollars and result in career-ending, corporation-killing infernos, there are some necessary conditions that seem to appear with great regularity accompanying them. These are the conditions that allow the seed of a fraud to take root and germinate, they provide the fertile ground and atmosphere letting the sprout become something larger, thornier and more interconnected with the flora around it.

Ivar Krueger aka The Match King was one of the most notorious purveyors of investment fraud who ever lived. His story is relatively unknown in modern times despite the fact that the global scale of what he did was ten times more intricate and ultimately destructive than anything Madoff attempted. When you read about the details of the Krueger saga, you realize that everything that’s happened since (and will happen hence) is merely an echo of an old story.

Using his tale as a backdrop, we can look at the conditions that allowed him to thrive and rope in almost the entirety of the investing public.

One: It begins with an enigmatic figure with an aura of success and brilliance

Ivar Kreuger is obsessed with the cultivation of his image from the very beginning. Almost everything he does in the public eye from his first arrival in America is calculated and carried out deliberately. He projects a supernatural air of confidence about himself and many of the affectations he adopts in both business meetings as well as in social settings end up making the newspapers. He finesses a conversation with one group so as to ensure a future meeting with a second group, and so on. The manipulation of people’s feelings about the person eventually allow for even greater manipulation down the road.

Two: The markets are booming

When people are making a lot of money and haven’t recently taken significant losses, lots of details are overlooked and difficult questions go unasked and unanswered. Oversight is seen as a trifling interference and people lose patience with long, drawn out due diligence. The money burns a hole in their pockets – every delay in putting it to work feels like a costly waste of time, a mere formality at best and an intolerable impediment to opportunity at worst. Besides, if you don’t buy in, someone else will take your spot.

Frank Partnoy, the author of The Match King, describes the environment into which Ivar hatches his scheme…

The hottest two emerging industries were cars and radio. Annual car sales had doubled from two years earlier, and there were now more than 15 million cars on the road. Manufacturers introduced faster, safer, cheaper models every year, and the only asset people wanted more than cars were securities issued by car companies. Anyone who bought shares of General Motors or Fisher Body or Yellow Cab expected to double or triple their money after just a few years.​
Shareholders of Radio Corporation of America, known as RCA, did even better…​
As recently as 1920, only 5,000 families had owned in-home radio sets, and RCA’s share price was around a dollar then. Then, WBAY, a pioneering New York radio station, sold the first-ever radio spot, a pitch for apartments in Jackson Heights – and the world changed overnight. Radio stations popped up in every major city, and radio sales soared, to $60 million in 1922. RCA’s share price flew even higher than its sales. Anyone who held RCA shares during the 1920’s earned an average annual return of 60 percent. All of that gain was from share price appreciation, not any periodic payments from the company. RCA did not even pay a dividend.​
If this sounds familiar, it’s because the market is currently engaged in exactly this debate over the Netflixes, the Amazons and the Teslas of the world as we speak. It’s almost identical…

A few naysayers argued that shares of General Motors and RCA were overvalued, because actual profits were slim. Shares represented a claim to future dividend payments, so share prices should reflect the value of expected future dividends. The pessimists noted that RCA didn’t pay a dividend, and claimed it never would, because it didn’t make any money. Their point was simple: no profits, no dividend, no value…​
Here’s the kill shot (bold is mine):

But these shares were a bet on tomorrow, not today. If people thought the share price of General Motors would rise in the future, no one could prove them wrong now. And even though RCA didn’t pay a dividend or earn much actual profit, the people who bet on the company were winners, year after year. RCA’s share price rose because investors believed RCA eventually would make money and pay dividends. The skeptics who bet against RCA were stepping in front of a speeding train.
This is how hundreds of internet and telecom startups with large cash-burns were taken public in the late 1990’s. It’s how billions of dollars for housing projects and lending scams were financed in the mid-2000’s.

You can sell anything to investors in this environment, and it’s exactly the sort of condition necessary for a massive fraud to flourish.

Three: Many massive frauds start out as legitimate businesses

Once upon a time, before the world was completely electrified, matches were among the most important consumer staples in the world, second only to perhaps food, clothing and shelter. You couldn’t do anything without a box of matches. The trouble was that matches were highly combustible, making their storage and transport a major challenge. This was the case until the Swedes invented something called the safety match, which could only be ignited by a deliberate strike against the side of the box. An industry of global necessity was born.

In the early 1920’s, European countries were starving for cash as they rebuilt themselves. They were already massively indebted and had strained the resources of their own central banks and private lenders. Ivar Kreuger emerges into this environment with an answer to their troubles, in the form of a simple business proposition. Kreuger’s match manufacturing capabilities are real. His business interests are legitimate. This legitimacy is what gets him in the door to make his pitch.

Enron was once a legitimate business – an electric utility. Worldcom was a telephone company. Madoff Securities began as a broker-dealer. When things begin to go wrong, the principals cannot admit it to the shareholders and the community that sees them as geniuses. So they hide losses, which leads to an escalating series of more and more illegitimate business behind the scenes.

Four: Massive frauds frequently involve an innovative approach to an old industry

Ivar’s got a brand new way to help sovereign nations fund themselves, retire old debts and raise new capital away from traditional bank loans or new taxes. It’s a loan for monopoly scheme involving his company, Swedish Match. In many countries around the world, the match making industry is either nationalized and run by the government or fragmented and run by various mom & pop enterprises. Ivar convinces the governments of Europe, Latin America and the Middle East to allow him to make enormous loans to them at competitive interest rates in exchange for Swedish Match being granted a monopoly in the manufacture and sale of matches within their borders. This means that all domestic means of production are turned over to his company and all foreign imports of matches are punished with tariffs and levies until they stop coming.

Germany, among the more desperate countries given the terms imposed upon it by the Versailles Treaty after the war, is among the first to say yes. France follows, as do Turkey and Poland. Ivar has reinvented sovereign lending, treading upon the territory previously controlled almost exclusively by investment banks like J.P. Morgan. At first, the incumbent competitors are shocked by Ivar Kreuger’s ability to lend tens of millions of dollars at rates as low as five and six percent to these governments.

In the 1700’s, the South Sea bubble was financed through a similar conceit – England converted her debts from fighting endless wars throughout Europe into an equity. That equity, the South Seas joint-stock company, was granted a monopoly on trade with the colonies of the Western Hemisphere. The Dutch East India Company had become the world’s first publicly traded “corporation” a century earlier with an almost identical pitch. Trade monopolies gave way to industrial monopolies in the 20th century and Ivar Kreuger was building the ultimate version of one.

Five: Fraud is enabled by the greed of people who desperately want to believe

Kreuger’s match factory, of course, does not have tens of millions of dollars to secure these monopolies, which requires the use of outside capital in huge amounts. Specifically, it requires the sort of daring and adventurous capital from investors that only really exists in one place: America. Ivar begins his charm offensive with a dashing display of sophistication and worldliness, first on a transatlantic voyage and then in front of an audience of willing suckers at the nation’s second most prosperous investment bank, Lee Higginson & Co. Lee Higg, based in Boston but with a growing presence in New York City, is perennially playing second fiddle to J.P. Morgan but is far ahead of it’s competitors at Lehman or Goldman Sachs. The New York office is desperate to make a splash at the outset of the roaring 20’s and Ivar’s scheme presents them with the perfect opportunity at the perfectly opportune moment.

Madoff’s hard-to-get act made allocators to his fund feel fortunate just to have the chance to invest and that to even question his consistent returns would possibly cut off their access to his genius. Elizabeth Holmes had the unabashed support of Silicon Valley and most of the media as so many wanted to believe that the heir to Steve Jobs was a confident young lady who was on her way to changing the world.

Six: The financing of these schemes requires innovation as well

The investment bank agrees to create a series of different securities to fund the loans being made by Swedish Match (now International Match) and its expansion plans. The format of these securities – ranging from a gold-backed debenture to a mixture of tracking stocks and preferred equity instruments – are all innovations in and of themselves. Ivar Krueger and his partners at Lee Higg continue to create brand new instruments as investor demand for the combination of large dividends and unheard of growth opportunities skyrockets. The louder the ducks are quacking, the larger the quantities of securities the brokers can sell them. The more the earlier investors earn in yields, the more outrageous the terms that future investors will agree to. Eventually clients of almost every major brokerage house will start flooding International Match with capital. The press plays its role, anointing Ivar as an unparalleled genius. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times breathlessly report on his every move and on rumors of the various international deals he is said to be working on. Time Magazine would eventually put him on the cover.

The funding of real estate and mortgage loans in the aught’s decade was highly dependent on new and increasingly obtuse methods of packaging and repackaging debt in the form of wilder and less understandable securities. Anytime the terms “innovative” and “lending” are used in the same breath, something bad is usually about to happen.

Seven: Fraud always has unwitting accomplices and useful idiots

Now that Ivar Kreuger has an investor base and listings for his various securities on legitimate exchanges like the NYSE and the Curb (Amex), his businesses must report numbers to them. His Swedish auditors issue reports and Ivar massages the numbers before passing them along to his US auditors. Kreuger makes frequent use of the time delays in getting information from around the world in order to cook his books. He uses discrepancies between terminology and the vagaries of international accounting rules to his advantage. He takes “lost in translation” to a whole new level in his dealings with the firm’s US auditors. He turns his business relationships into friendships so as to ensure that even the most basic questions are never asked or can be dismissed casually during weddings and cocktail parties.

As Kreuger creates an endless series of subsidiaries and subsidiaries of hit companies, the truth becomes impossible to determine. No stakeholder is possession of all the information to understand the entity so they content themselves with understanding the pieces that have been explained to them. Enron had so many off-balance sheet subsidiaries and debts that even the CFO who’d created them lost track. Madoff had a floor in the building that most employees had not even known about where fake account statements were coming off the printing press night and day.

Eight: The point of no return

Not all hucksters go about their hucksterism deliberately. In many cases, the crossing of the line takes place incrementally, in stages. The point of no return is reached toward the end, frequently without the person carrying it out even being aware of the exact moment it occurs. Ivar’s promises of up to 24% income distributions to shareholders and the constant shuffling around of assets from one jurisdiction to another represents one of the most audacious “spinning plates” routines the world has ever seen. Every time a deal falls through or a payment is missed, he announces an even bolder and more lucrative potential deal to take its place. Ivar begins to publicly mention a gold mine in Sweden with supposedly massive deposits of precious metals in response to bankers and investors questioning his ability to make good on International Match’s commitments. By constantly hinting at new securities to be offered or new loan agreements to be signed in new locales, Kreuger keeps the plates spinning for years and years before anyone loses confidence in him.

But in the wake of the crash, investor appetites for new and exotic deals vanish virtually overnight. People start demanding their money or, at least, some actual answers to their questions. Rather than admitting to having bit off more than he could chew, the entrepreneur crosses the line from fudging numbers to outright forgery of documents and theft of investor assets. He begins pledging the same assets twice to obtain loans from multiple banks, ordering the printing of fake Italian sovereign bonds and copying the signatures of various finance ministers.

Nine: The unraveling is always the same

The perpetrator of the fraud, as the curtain begins to come down, grows increasingly desperate. The tactics become increasingly erratic and inexplicable. Deals that appear to have no economic purpose are announced. Hail Mary style passes are thrown. Investors are asked to believe in more outlandish projections and are made even bigger promises just as the old promises fail to play out.

And then the con artist goes on the offensive, against both the media as well as a supposed conspiracy of short-sellers who are unfairly targeting the company. This takes place near the very end. Think of Theranos employees creating a video game where they could shoot at the Wall Street Journal reporter who first unearthed the truth about their company. Think of threats of litigation, the incitement of loyal fans to rush to a company’s defense and other forms of intimidation used when it becomes clear that the time is almost up.

Here’s how Ivar Kreuger explained what was happening as his company’s securities began declining in value…

The decline weighed on Ivar. He complained to Durant that he and his companies “have been the subject of a deceitful press campaign from…some twenty black-mailing papers who continually attack our securities.” Ivar became increasingly paranoid about short-sellers, and he personally bought large volumes of his companies’ securities, in an effort to prop up the price. As the short selling of Ivar’s companies increased during late 1931, he became increasingly frustrated and ultimately published the following statement: “This situation has been utilized by an internationally organized short selling syndicate, which has not hesitated to spread unfounded rumours about the group.”​
In reality, what was actually happening was that the once-buoyant economy and stock market euphoria had been replaced with a post-crash environment of skepticism. The priority had become preservation of capital rather than the pursuit of lavish dividends and grand schemes. Simultaneously, banks were losing faith in the Match King’s ability to finance and pay for all of the elaborate promises he’d made and the immense obligations he’d assumed in the boom times.

The Match King is an important book to read because of how amazingly similar the rise and fall of his fraudulent enterprise had been to all the frauds that have come after it – and the frauds still to be revealed. People don’t change and so the enterprises built by people to deceive and to be deceived by do not substantially change either. There is always the enigmatic leader, the battles with the press and invisible “short seller” cabals, the use of unsuspecting third parties who convey legitimacy, the convoluted corporate structure and accounting liberalism, the replacement of dashed promises with even greater promises of what’s to come in the future…

As speculator Jesse Livermore said, a hundred years ago, “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”

***

The Match King is the second book on my summer reading list. The next book in the series is here.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/07/09/the-nine-essential-conditions-to-commit-massive-fraud/
 

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Panama and China Kick Off Free Trade Talks With Eye Regional Hub
July 9, 2018 by Reuters



The MV Cosco Shipping Panama makes the inaugural transit through the expanded Panama Canal, June 26, 2016. Photo: Panama Canal Authority



PANAMA CITY, July 9 (Reuters) – Panama and China opened free trade talks on Monday with the aim of crafting an agreement that could turn the Central American country into a hub for Chinese goods across Latin America.

Panama’s Minister for Trade and Industry Augusto Arosemena said the first round of talks would last until Friday, July 13, and establish the basis for the rest of the negotiation.

Traditionally close to Washington because the U.S. had controlled its famous shipping canal for decades, Panama has set its sights on attracting more inward investment from China.

More Chinese investment, Arosemena told reporters, would enable Panama “to position ourselves as the port of entry of these products and investment for the whole region.”

China’s ambassador to Panama, Wei Qiang, said Panama could become a hub for Chinese firms, notably in manufacturing.

Panama’s chief negotiator, Alberto Aleman, said the trade agreement aimed to include some 20 chapters in total.

The trade talks follow Panama’s establishment of diplomatic ties with China in 2017.

Since then, the Isthmian nation and the world’s second-largest economy have signed around 20 agreements and established direct flights between them.

A second round of trade talks is expected to take place in August, though no precise date has been set yet.

(Reporting by Elida Moreno Editing by Phil Berlowitz)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

http://gcaptain.com/panama-and-china-kick-off-free-trade-talks-with-eye-regional-hub/
 

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Wage Talks With Norway Offshore Workers Go Into Overtime as Strike Threat Looms
July 9, 2018 by Reuters



Teekay’s Petrojarl Knarr FPSO at the Knarr field in the Norwegian North Sea. File Photo: BG Group




OSLO, July 10 (Reuters) – Wage talks between hundreds of workers on Norwegian oil and gas offshore rigs and their employers went into overtime on Tuesday, and could lead to a strike if they fail.

A state-appointed mediation between trade unions Safe and YS and employers’ organisation the Shipowners’ Association passed a midnight deadline.

Some 669 workers could walk out from Tuesday and could potentially increase to 2,250 workers if the conflict is not resolved.

Trade union Safe said it would initially take out 106 workers from the Teekay Petrojarl production ship operating at Shell’s Knarr field, which had a daily production of 63,000 barrels of oil, according to Teekay’s website.

Safe would also take out workers on drilling rigs that conduct exploration or production drilling for oil firms, including 117 workers from the Transocean Spitsbergen; 80 workers from the Songa Offshore Enabler; 71 workers from Odfjell Drilling’s Deepsea Stavanger and 60 workers from North Atlantic Drilling’s West Elara, among others.

(Reporting by Gwladys Fouche Editing by James Dalgleish)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

http://gcaptain.com/wage-talks-with-norway-offshore-workers-go-into-overtime-as-strike-threat-looms/
 

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Rogue Mornings - Staged Outrage, The Wall & Record Deficit (07/10/2018)
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Hapag-Lloyd CEO Says Company is Cutting Costs as Fuel Prices Rise
July 10, 2018 by Reuters


FILE PHOTO: A Hapag-Lloyd container is loaded from a container ship at the terminal Altenwerder in the harbour in Hamburg, Germany October 25, 2011. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo



By Vera Eckert FRANKFURT, July 10 (Reuters) – German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd is cutting costs to cope with a rise in fuel prices that led it to slash full year earnings forecasts last month, its chief executive told shareholders on Tuesday.

“Major cost positions have risen more than initially expected and are pressuring operating margins,” CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said in Hamburg.

“We are responding short-term to this development through forceful cost management and will keep Hapag-Lloyd competitive this way,” he added.

Among the measures being taken are accepting more valuable cargo, trying to reduce terminal contract costs and stripping out economically inefficient ship systems, he said.

The effects of recent industry mergers have yet to be felt as the integration process is only just starting, he added, referring to a merger in April of three Japanese rivals and Chinese approval for COSCO Shipping Holdings’ takeover of Hong Kong peer Orient Overseas International.

Habben Jansen made no mention, however, of a Reuters report on Monday that bigger French rival CAM CGM had made a merger approach, which sent Hapag-Lloyd shares up to 10 percent higher.

Hapag-Lloyd in June cut its full-year profit forecast, saying freight rates had recovered more slowly than expected, while fuel costs had ballooned as global oil prices respond to supply disruptions and tightness.

The news led to several banks cutting their price targets on the stock, while the company stressed it hoped to reap substantial synergies from its 2017 merger with Arab peer UASC.

Habben Jansen also said the global ship orderbook had shrunk to just 11 percent of the total fleet. That should help bring supply and demand into a better balance over the next 2 1/2 to three years, he said.

At the same time, world shipping demand could rise 5.2 percent per year, which should result in freight rate increases from the second half of 2018 onwards.

But the CEO also said increased geopolitical uncertainty – as the world’s leading economies head for a full-blown trade war – was acutely felt by container liners and their customers.

Hapag-Lloyd last month said it has stopped one of two feeder services to Iran and would decide on the remaining one before a Nov. 4 deadline imposed by the United States.

The company’s shares were down 0.9 percent at 1035 GMT.

(Reporting by Vera Eckert; Editing by Maria Sheahan and Mark Potter)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

http://gcaptain.com/hapag-lloyd-ceo-says-company-is-cutting-costs-as-fuel-prices-rise/
 

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"Godfather Of Payday Lending" Stripped Of $64 Million, Sentenced To 14 Years


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/10/2018 - 14:55

“In this industry, to build a big book, you have to run afoul of the regulators” -Charles M. Hallinan​
A former Main Line investment banker known as the "Godfather of payday lending" for preying on low-income borrowers was sentenced Friday to 14 years in federal prison and stripped of over $64 million in assets, reports philly.com.



Lawyers for 77-year-old Charles M. Hallinan argued that the prison term might as well be a "death sentence" given his age and declining health, however District Judge Eduardo Robreno gave no quarter as he rendered his verdict after a jury convicted him of 17 counts, including racketeering, international money laundering and fraud.

“It would be a miscarriage of justice to impose a sentence that would not reflect the seriousness of this case,” Robreno said. “The sentence here should send a message that criminal conduct like [this] will not pay.”

In all, government lawyers estimate, Hallinan’s dozens of companies made $492 million off an estimated 1.4 million low-income borrowers between 2007 and 2013, the period covered by the indictment.​

Robreno’s forfeiture order will strip Hallinan of many of the fruits of that business, including his $1.8 million Villanova mansion, multiple bank accounts, and a small fleet of luxury cars, including a $142,000 2014 Bentley Flying Spur. In addition, the judge ordered Hallinan to pay a separate $2.5 million fine. -philly.com


When given the opportunity to address the court before his sentence was handed down, Hallinan remained silent.

Hallinan's case calls into question the legality of business tactics engaged in by predatory lenders across the country - such as Mariner Finance, a subsidiary of former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's private equity firm Warburg Pincus.

Many of the loans Hallinan made had exorbitant interest rates which greatly exceeded rate caps mandated by the states in which the borrowers live, such as Pennsylvania's 6% annual cap.

In court Friday, Assistant U.S. Attorney Mark Dubnoff argued that there was little difference between the exorbitant fees charged by money-lending mobsters and the annual interest rates approaching 800 percent that were standard on many of Hallinan’s loans. -philly.com

“The only difference between Mr. Hallinan and other loan sharks is that he doesn’t break the kneecaps of people who don’t pay his debts,” Dubnoff said. “He was charging more interest than the Mafia.”



Hallinan “collect[ed] hundreds of millions of dollars in unlawful debt … knowing that these businesses were unlawful, and all the while devising schemes to evade the law,” wrote Assistant U.S. Attorneys Sara L. Grieb and Maria M. Carrillo.

Hallinan's attorneys argued that Hallinan should receive house arrest after a recent diagnosis of two forms of aggressive cancer.

“What is just, under the circumstances?” Jacobs asked. “If there is going to be a period of incarceration, one that makes it so that Mr. Hallinan doesn’t survive is not just.”

Judge Robreno largely ignored the plea, though he did give Hallinan 11 days to get his medical affairs in order before he has to report to prison.



Hallinan's orbit
Many of those whose careers Hallinan helped to launch are now headed to prison alongside the "godfather" of payday lending, "a list that includes professional race car driver Scott Tucker, who was sentenced to more than 16 years in prison in January and ordered to forfeit $3.5 billion in assets," reports Philly.

Hallinan’s codefendant and longtime lawyer, Wheeler K. Neff, was sentenced in May to eight years behind bars.​

Hallinan got into the predatory lending business in the 1990s with $120 million after selling his landfill company to begin making payday loans over phone and fax. He rapidly grew his empire of dozens of companies which offered quick cash under such names as Instant Cash USA, Your First Payday and Tele-Ca$h.

As more than a dozen states, including Pennsylvania, effectively outlawed payday lending with laws attempting to cap the exorbitant fee rates that are standard across the industry, Hallinan continued to target low-income borrowers over the internet.​

He tried to hide his involvement by instituting sham partnerships with licensed banks and American Indian tribes so he could take advantage of looser restrictions on their abilities to lend. But in practice he limited the involvement of those partners and continued to service all the loans from his offices in Bala Cynwyd. -philly.com

He bet his lifestyle on the fact that we would not catch him. He lost that bet,” said U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, William M. McSwain. “Now, it’s time for Hallinan to repay his debt with the only currency we will accept: his freedom and his fortune, amassed at his victims’ expense.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ending-stripped-64-million-sentenced-14-years
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 7 10 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Jul 10, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 7 10 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Jul 10, 2018
 

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The Life Onboard Gjøa
Atle Hovstad


Published on Sep 27, 2012
Documentary of the life onboard Gjoa Oil & Gas Platform
 

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North Sea Offshore Head to Sea Heart at Home
Space Cowbhoy


Published on Jun 23, 2016
An ex colleague of mine made this very professional video of life offshore working and living on an oil rig, it is really worth a watch if you have ever been interested in what it is like..All credit to Orchard media solutions who can be found here http://www.orchardmediasolutions.co.uk/
 

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"Past Point Of No Return": World Markets Tumble Amid Global Trade War Shockwaves


by Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/11/2018 - 06:53


In almost every way, the overnight trading action has been a mirror image of the ramp observed on Monday morning, when trade tensions - inexplicably, one trading day after trade war started - were said to have "gone away" leading to a furious global rally.

Not so much today, when hours after Trump unveiled the second round of trade war - at the worst possible time according to bulls, just ahead of earnings season, once again spoiling the positive effect of what is set to be another 20%+ EPS rise for the S&P - by pushing ahead with plans to impose tariffs of 10% on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods by releasing a list of targeted products that includes consumer items such as clothing, television components and refrigerators, global stocks are a sea of red amid a worldwide market selloff as traders realized that not only is trade war not hibernating, but it is set to keep getting worse as Steven Englander explained last night, as escalation has now crossed past "the point of no return."



While the duties have some time before taking effect, and the soonest they could be implemented would be after public consultations end on Aug. 30, Beijing has described the move as “totally unacceptable” bullying and vowed it will be forced to retaliate, without however giving details.

However, the biggest risk is that, as Bloomberg wrote, Trump has pushing his China trade conflict beyond "a point of no return", where neither side can back down. China now has seven weeks to make a deal or dig in and try to outlast the U.S. leader. However, president Xi Jinping, facing his own political pressures to look tough, has vowed to respond blow-for-blow. He’s already imposed retaliatory duties targeting Trump’s base including Iowa soybeans and Kentucky bourbon.

Yet matching the latest U.S. barrage would force China to either levy much higher tariffs or take more disruptive steps like canceling purchase orders, encouraging consumer boycotts and putting up regulatory hurdles. Not only does that risk provoking Trump to follow through on threats to tax virtually all Chinese products, it could unleash nationalist sentiment on both sides that fuels a deeper struggle for geopolitical dominance.

“It’s already past the point of no return,” said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-Analytica in Hong Kong. “What’s next is not so much a trade war or even a cold war as the dawn of an ice age in relations between China and the United States.”

As noted above, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Wednesday that it would be forced to retaliate against what it called “totally unacceptable” U.S. tariffs, with China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen saying in comments to Bloomberg that Beijing “never yields to threat or blackmail” and will retaliate against the “groundless” tariffs."

"The U.S. side ignored the progress, adopted unilateral and protectionist measures, and started the trade war.”

In the aftermath of the latest development, OCBC analysts told clients to “expect a risk-off tone to prevail over Asian markets today as investors prepare for the next escalation of U.S.-Sino trade tensions and China’s response."

They were right, and sure enough the two key markets that everyone looks at first in the morning, US equity futures, which are down over 20 points and set for the biggest drop in 2 weeks, wiping out the gains from the past two days...



... and the Shanghai Composite, which closed -1.8% lower after sliding even more earlier in the session...



... have been hammered, dragging down the rest of global assets. Here one reason why Trump may be willing to keep pressing China is that a pattern observed so far in the escalating battle between the world’s top two economies is that the tensions hit Chinese shares harder than American ones - they are now in a bear market, while the S&P 500 is within about 3 percent of a record high.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended its best run since March, led lower by tariff-related sectors such as miners and autos and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell. Stoxx 600 basic resources index SXPP dropped as much as 3.4%, most in 2-1/2 weeks, with technical charts showing index testing key support levels amid new escalation in global trade war. After rising back over the 200DMA, Stoxx 600 is back under this key moving average.



Commenting on the latest escalation, Nomura FX strategist Dushyant Padmanabhan said that "this escalation, and the timing of it, seems to have caught the market a bit by surprise," adding that "the $34 billion and $16 billion tariffs were well flagged and, as such, had little impact on markets,” but while this $200 billion has been mentioned before there’s no clear sense of timing around it.

Meanwhile, China's currency - that other global risk on/off catalyst - tumbled, with the offshore yuan falling as much as 0.74%, the most in a week, and dropping 1000 pips in 2 days...



... while the onshore yuan slid 0.46% to 6.6710 and was headed for the weakest close in 11 months, since August 2017. The Yuan may fall closer toward multi-year low of just below 7 per dollar, with 6.7 the next key level to watch, Nomura strategists wrote in note Wednesday
At the same time, the dollar rallied strongly against G-10 and all other currencies too as the latest escalation in the U.S.-China trade war caught the market off guard, increasingly shorted the greenback and long-risk.



Elsewhere in FX, the euro predictably weakened the most in more than a week to re-test the 1.17 level, while the pound dropped ahead of the publication of the Brexit white paper Thursday. That said, there was one silver lining in overnight trading: volatility in G-4 currencies saw a rather muted response with traders in no rush to add exposure as the new list of tariffs won’t be implemented till end-August. The loonie fell toward a one-week low before the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and amid lower oil prices. Meanwhile, the Australia and New Zealand dollars led losses among G-10 currencies on renewed trade war.

"In the short run it’s very difficult to see what’s going to bring an end to this escalation of tit-for-tat," Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist for BlackRock told Bloomberg TV. “It’s those increasing concerns that are going to weigh on market returns and force investors increasingly to look for more resilience in their portfolios.”

In rates, US Treasuries were trading close to overnight highs, with the curve unchanged. The yield on the 10Y dropped 4 bps to 2.83%: the lower yields slide, the greater the threat a sharp short squeeze takes them even lower as a result of another record shorts in the US rates complex.



In commodities, oil dropped below $74 a barrel in New York, even as the latest API report showed shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent is falling faster than WTI as a result of Libya's NOC resuming control of Eastern oil ports, with operations set to resume to normal levels “in a few hours." This is undoing the support offered on Tuesday by a larger than expected draw in API crude inventories. The metals sector is also seeing broad based losses, with Gold down 0.2%, copper falling over 3% during Asia-Pac trade to its lowest in around a year, Shanghai zinc fell limit down shortly after the Chinese open and lead is languishing around near 1 year lows. Platinum is also in negative territory with the market set for its 4th consecutive surplus this year, on the back of falling demand in the auto sector, as according to the CPM Group.

What to watch today: NATO summit in Brussels; U.S. sells 10-year notes; producer prices, wholesale inventories; BOC rate decision, press conference to follow; New York Fed President John Williams, ECB’s Mersch and Nouy speak.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 2,775.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 381.85
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 164.27
  • MXAPJ down 1% to 534.79
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 21,932.21
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,701.88
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 28,311.69
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.8% to 2,777.77
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 36,316.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,215.60
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,280.62
  • Brent futures down 2.1% to $77.19/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,250.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 94.42
  • German 10Y yield rose 4.4 bps to 0.364%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1726
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 2.405%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.275%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • U.S. releases $200bn list of Chinese goods for additional possible tariffs, would take effect Aug. 30
  • China confirms it will take countermeasures, describes latest U.S. move as totally unacceptable and urges other countries to join China to protect free trade
  • Brexit: Euroskeptic Tories that failed to stop PM May’s soft Brexit plan are considering a radical last ditch move that could bring down her minority government later this year, according to people familiar
  • Libya: force majeure lifted at eastern oil ports, exports to return to normal levels
  • President Donald Trump opened up another front in his tussle with allies on his arrival at NATO’s annual summit, targeting Germany over its support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia
  • Euroskeptic Tories have failed to stop U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for a soft Brexit and are considering a radical last ditch move that could bring down her minority government later this year
  • Deutsche Bank AG is deploying top executives, as well as billions of dollars, as it seeks to win more business with Wall Street’s most active dealmakers
  • Malaysia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the first policy meeting under a new governor, providing support to an economy that Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is trying to revamp
Asian stocks slumped across the board with sentiment spooked on increased trade concerns after the US announced a new tariff list on an additional USD 200bln worth of Chinese goods. The renewed US trade offensive picks up from Trump’s threats made last month and in turn weighed heavily on US equity futures as well as Asia-Pac bourses, while some commodities in Shanghai went into free fall alongside the broad risk-averse tone. ASX 200 (-0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.2%) were lower with commodity-related sectors in Australia suffering after declines in the complex in which Shanghai Zinc fell 6% to hit limit down and copper fell to its lowest in about a year, while losses in Tokyo were exacerbated by safe haven flows into the JPY. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.8%) took the brunt of the increased trade tensions, although both were off the day’s lows after an initial composed response from China which stated it was vital to send a positive signal of cooperation and suggested that if the US will go low, it will go high. Finally, T-note futures traded higher overnight with prices spurred by the tariff list announcement, while 10yr JGBs were flat after they failed to benefit from the broad risk-averse tone, as well as the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 960bln in 1yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News
  • China Selloff Regains Momentum as Tariff List Hits Stocks, Yuan
  • Turkey Faces Ticking Bomb With Energy Loans of $51 Billion
European equities (Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%) are following in step with Asian stocks and falling sharply on the back of trade concerns as the US begun the process of imposing new 10% tariffs on a further USD 200bln of Chinese imports. This new list was said to include several metals and as such material names are underperforming alongside energy names (on softer oil prices), but losses are broad based and being seen across all sectors. 21st Century Fox have increased their bid for Sky (-0.6%) to GBP 14.00/share, an independent committee from Sky has said they have reached an agreement on this increased recommended pre-conditional cash offer

Top European News
  • Hedge Fund Said to Sell Playtech Stake Before Profit Warning
  • Indivior Plunges as U.S. Generic Setback Hurts Drug Orders
  • European Stocks Extend Early Losses as Miners, Autos Hammered
  • Danske Fine May Be $670 Million as Analysts Look at New Evidence
In FX, AUD Extending recent losses vs its US counterpart and underperformance within the G10 bloc, with a further retreat from near 0.7500 peaks to breach support just ahead of the big figure below (0.7401 was the 10 DMA and support from there not seen until the 61.8% fib around 0.7377). The Aud continues to track US-China import tariff developments as a barometer for wider global trade contagion and repercussions given closest links and relations with China, while its NZD antipodean peer is less sensitive and has held up better as a result – cross back below 1.0900 but Kiwi losing 0.6800 vs the Usd. CNH/CNY - Taking a direct hit from threats to raise the bar on imports to $250 bn in total by Beijing in response to a further $200 bn Chinese goods and services listed by the White House, but also weaker via the latest PBoC Cny fix amidst ongoing speculation that depreciation could be deployed as another trade war weapon. Usd/Cny closed around 6.6667, with resistance for Usd/Cnh just above 6.7000 subsequently tested. EM/SCANDI : Weaker across the board on general risk-off position and more independent bearish factors as the Lira lurches again on more fall-out from President Erdogan’s cabinet appointments and Usd/Try rallies to circa 4.7600+ again.

In commodities, oil is currently being hit by the risk-off mood, with both Brent and WTI in the red. Brent is falling faster than WTI as a result of Libya's NOC resuming control of Eastern oil ports, with operations set to resume to normal levels “in a few hours” as of 08:45 BST. This is undoing the support offered on Tuesday by a larger than expected draw in API crude inventories. The metals sector is also seeing broad based losses, with Gold down 0.2%, copper fell over 3% during Asia-Pac trade to its lowest in around a year, Shanghai zinc fell limit down shortly after the Chinese open and lead is languishing around near 1 year lows. Platinum is also in negative territory with the market set for its 4th consecutive surplus this year, on the back of falling demand in the auto sector, as according to the CPM Group.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US the most significant release is the June PPI report (core PPI of 2.6% yoy expected), while May wholesale trades sales and final May wholesale inventories are also due. Away from the data, BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak late in the afternoon on the global financial crisis at a conference in Boston while New York Fed President John Williams will speak to business and community leaders at an event in Brooklyn. Meanwhile the NATO meeting begins, continuing into Thursday, while Japan PM Abe meets European Council President Tusk and EC President Juncker. Meanwhile the ECB’s Draghi, Praet, Mersch and Nouy will speak at Frankfurt. England will meet Croatia for a place in the World Cup final.

US Event Calendar
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.5%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%; PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.6%
  • 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s a sign of how good England have been at this World Cup that even without playing last night they made it through to the last 3. Happy days. Congratulations to readers in France and commiserations to those in Belgium this morning. Whoever gets through tonight will have a tough game against a very skilful French team. Ahead of the biggest game in this country for 28 years tonight I’m a little fragile this morning.

Last night I finished packing away the last of nearly 2000 CDs I’ve had in my garages since streaming came along and made them largely redundant. They are to be collected by a charity shop today although given some of my peculiar album purchases over the years some of them might remain on the shelf longer than England’s football team have been away from a World Cup final. In skimming through them as I packed, it really did feel like I was saying goodbye to the soundtrack to my adolescence and young adult life. I hope I’ve done the right thing. If you think I’m going to regret this please let me know ASAP before they get picked up today and are gone forever. This moving house thing is very stressful and we haven’t even moved yet.

As a contrast, this week has been noticeable for the lack of stress mostly due to no further escalation of the trade dispute. However things have taken a different turn after the US markets closed overnight. The US Trade Representative office has released a list of an additional $200bn worth of Chinese imports to be hit with higher tariffs of 10%, although a final decision on the tariffs is not expected until after the public consultations period which ends on 30th August. The affected product list includes consumer goods such as clothing, refrigerators but excludes items such as mobile phones. In terms of initial reactions, China’s Commerce Ministry noted it is “shocked” by the US actions which “were hurting China… the entire world and the US itself” and that it will have no choice but to respond to the US move. Back in the US, the Senate Finance Chair Hatch called the proposal “reckless”.

This morning in Asia, markets have pared back deeper losses at the open to trade c1.5% lower with the Nikkei (-0.96%), Kospi (-0.53%), Hang Seng (-1.42%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.87%) all down as we type. Meanwhile the Chinese Yuan is down c0.4% and futures on the S&P are also down c0.6%. Datawise, Japan’s June PPI edged up 0.1ppt mom to an in line print of 2.8% yoy.

As a reminder, DB’s Peter Hooper and team have recently published a note looking at the impact of trade frictions on the US macro economy. They noted that higher tariffs on $250bn worth of Chinese goods and $350bn worth of automotive products could reduce imports and lift the US GDP by c0.5ppt. However, this gain is likely to be swamped by various negative effects if the tariffs are actually implemented. These include: i) -0.4ppt hit to US GDP from higher prices and lower consumer spending, ii) -0.6ppt on US GDP from retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU as it depresses exports and iii) -0.5ppt hit to GDP from the confidence hit to businesses and households, particularly the flow on drags on investments and consumption spending. Refer to their note for details.

As for markets yesterday, risk assets edged up in the absence of further trade tensions (before the peace was shattered overnight) and investors turning their focus to the US results season. The S&P was up for the fourth straight day (+0.35%) as PepsiCo’s share price jumped the most in c9 year (+4.8%) following an above market result and guidance that Q4 earnings will be "substantially higher”. Elsewhere financials was the only sector in the red after rallying the prior day. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 advanced for the sixth straight day (+0.4%), marking the longest winning streak since March. As a quick stock take, the S&P is now the highest in c5 months and +8.2% higher than its February lows, albeit still down -2.8% from its record high in January. In comparison the Stoxx 600 and Shanghai Comp. are down -4.1% and -20.6% respectively from their January high, although the former has partly recovered to a c1 month high. The overnight news will likely put a dent in these recoveries though.

In government bonds, yields on 10y treasuries reversed earlier gains of c2bp to close -0.6bp lower at 2.851% following the aforementioned threat of higher tariffs on Chinese goods. We’re another 1bps lower in the Asian session. Back in Europe, core bonds broadly weakened (Bunds +2bp; OATs +1.3bp) while Gilts rose +4.9bp as Brexit uncertainties somewhat stabilised and GDP data pointed to a healthy return in economic growth.

In FX, Sterling reversed losses to be up +0.12% as concerns for a potential leadership challenge to PM May eased and German Chancellor Merkel also seems to be backing PM May’s softer Brexit proposal, calling it a “solid step forward”, although she also added that “we’ll continue to have lively discussions (on the proposals)”. Meanwhile the US dollar index (+0.09%) and Euro (-0.06%) were both little changed, while Brent oil rose for the second straight day (+1.01%).

Following on with some more specific Brexit headlines. After PM May’s latest proposal for a softer Brexit approach, the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator seems to be pushing back on the plans, indicating that “we’ll protect this single market, which is based on the indivisibility of…..the four freedoms…of people, goods, services and capital”. Notably, Bloomberg cited sources that noted EU diplomats have not fully started going through the UK plans yet while the Irish PM Varadkar was relatively upbeat as he noted the EU may be “entering into a space” where it can show flexibility in Brexit talks. So lots bubbling along.

Moving onto Italy, the Bank of Italy Governor and the ECB’s Visco noted that Italy’s economic growth has slowed this year and could face follow on risks linked to the US tariffs decisions, but he still expects growth to be above 1%, in part given the supportive financial policy conditions in the EU bloc. He also added that a relaunch of investments and pro-growth policies are as important as cautious management of public finances for the country.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the May JOLTS report reported a 0.1ppt mom rise in the quits rate to 2.4% - the highest since February 2001, which should bode well for expectations of future wage gains.

Meanwhile the June NFIB small business optimism index moderated 0.6pts from last month’s 34 year high to an above market print of 107.2 (vs. 106.9 expected).

In Europe, the macro data were broadly weaker than expectations. In Germany, the July ZEW survey on the current situation was 72.4 (vs. 78.1 expected) while the expectations index fell for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since 2012 (-24.7 vs. -18.9 expected). Meanwhile the Euro area’s ZEW expectations reading also fell to the lowest since August 2012 (-18.7 vs. -12.6 previous). For May industrial productions, the UK, France and Italy’s readings were all weaker than expectations at 0.8% yoy (vs. 1.9% expected), -0.9% (vs. 0.4% expected) and 2.1% (vs. 2.8% expected) respectively. Back in the UK, the May trade deficit was narrower than expected at -£2.8bn (vs. -£3.4bn expected) with upward revisions to the prior month’s reading. Elsewhere, the inaugural ONS estimate of monthly GDP growth indicated that the economy grew at an in line rate of 0.3% mom in May and based on the first two months of the quarter, Q2 appears on track for growth of about 0.4% qoq (vs. 0.2% previous). Following the above and no escalation in the political risk, the implied Bloomberg odds of an August rate hike rose 7ppt to 74%.

Looking at the day ahead, there are no releases of note in Europe while in the US the most significant release is the June PPI report (core PPI of 2.6% yoy expected), while May wholesale trades sales and final May wholesale inventories are also due. Away from the data, BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak late in the afternoon on the global financial crisis at a conference in Boston while New York Fed President John Williams will speak to business and community leaders at an event in Brooklyn. Meanwhile the NATO meeting begins, continuing into Thursday, while Japan PM Abe meets European Council President Tusk and EC President Juncker. Meanwhile the ECB’s Draghi, Praet, Mersch and Nouy will speak at Frankfurt. Oh and England will meet Croatia for a place in the World Cup final!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...rkets-tumble-amid-global-trade-war-shockwaves
 

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What To Do When The Insurance Company Totals Your Car - Lehto's Law Ep. 4.41
Steve Lehto


Published on Jul 11, 2018
People often ask me what they should do when the insurance company is going to total their car. What steps should they take? And what can you do to avoid being ripped off.

http://www.lehtoslaw.com
 

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DB - Opening Bell 7.11.18
https://dealbreaker.com/2018/07/opening-bell-7-11-18/

Naked Capitalism Links 07/11
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/07/links-7-11-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 07/11
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

CWS - Morning News: July 11, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/07/morning-news-july-11-2018.html

TBP - 10 Wednesday AM Reads 07/11
http://ritholtz.com/2018/07/10-wednesday-reads-43/

MtM - Odds and Ends: NATO, Treasuries, SPX, and China 07/11
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/07/odds-and-ends-nato-treasuries-spx-and.html

MtM - Escalating Trade Tensions Set Tone for Capital Markets 07/11
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/07/escalating-trade-tensions-set-tone-for.html

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Markets Skid On Heavy Trade Anxiety 07/11
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4186531-wall-street-breakfast-markets-skid-heavy-trade-anxiety
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: July 11 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Gold can fall first and then rise. Investors will prefer to sit on cash or invest in a safer bond market till a clear picture on the impact of the USA induced trade war is there. Anyways equities offer a much better return than gold in the short term. Risk is much higher in stocks than gold but returns outweigh risk. I again repeat that gold investment is not for a few weeks to a quarter. Gold has to be invested for a period of six months and more to get some really good returns. Gold offers good day trading opportunity as well.
 

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Doug Casey Talks Cryptocurrencies, Precious Metals and Novels
By: Maurice Jackson
Today, we have a very special guest joining us to discuss the natural resource space and your portfolio, the legendary investor, philosopher, bestselling author and serially successful Doug Casey. A number of speculators are confused and frustrated with the current state of the natural resource space. I hear comments that it just seems to be dragging along. In my experience, strong hands love the current value propositions and the weak hands fold.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 7 11 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Jul 11, 2018