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South Korea Leads The World In Robo-Workers


by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/01/2018 - 01:00

The rise of the machines has well and truly started.

Data from the International Federation of Robotics reveals that the pace of industrial automation is accelerating across much of the developed world with 66 installed industrial robots per 10,000 employees globally in 2015. A year later, as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, that increased to 74. Europe has a robot density of 99 units per 10,000 workers and that number is 84 and 63 in the Americas and Asia respectively.

China is one of the countries recording the highest growth levels in industrial automation but nowhere has a robot density like South Korea.


You will find more infographics at Statista


In 2016, South Korea had 631 installed industrial robots per 10,000 employees. That is mainly due to the continued installation of high volume robots in the electronics and manufacturing sectors.

90 percent of Singapore's industrial robots are installed in its electronics industry and it comes second with a density of 488 per 10,000 employees. Germany and Japan are renowned for their automotive industries and they have density levels of just over 300 per 10,000 workers. Interestingly, Japan is one of the main players in industrial robotics, accounting for 52 percent of global supply.

In the United States, the pace of automation is slower with a density rate of 189. China is eager to expand its level of automation in the coming years, targeting a place in the world's top-10 nations for robot density by 2020. It had a density rate of 25 units in 2013 and that grew to 68 by 2016. India is still lagging behind other countries in automation and it has only three industrial robots per 10,000 workers in 2016.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-28/south-korea-leads-world-robo-workers
 

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Turkey, Greece, Cyrpus Conflict Deepens As New Flashpoint In The Med Intensifies


by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/01/2018 - 03:30


Via GEFIRA,

The conflict over gas in the eastern Mediterranean is intensifying. In February, the first case of intervention by the Turkish navy took place in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Cyprus. Last month, two more flashpoints have appeared.



The dispute concerns gas blocks, i.e. areas into which waters around Cyprus have been divided. Turkey does not recognize the government in Nicosia or its agreements regarding EEZ. Ankara thinks that the right to extract gas should also be exercised by the Turkish Cypriots and also by Turkey in the case of Blocks 4, 5, 6, and 7, through which – according to Ankara – passes the Turkish maritime border (the map below).



At the beginning of October, Cyprus put gas extraction in the disputed Block 7 out to tender, which the Gefira Team has informed about. In response to this, in the middle of the same month, Turkey sent an exploration ship assisted by four naval vessels and began exploration in the area of 44 thousand km2, including blocks 4 and 5.

Nicosia and Athens consider it a violation of the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus. On October 18, another event took place.

Greece reported that the Turkish ship had entered the Greek continental shelf, which provoke Athens to send the frigate Nikiforos to drive the Turks out.


[Location of the Turkish research ship Barbaros Hayreddin Pasa in October 2018 in the disputed area in the Eastern Mediterranean. Source: Marine Traffic]

In the vicinity of the disputed waters, exploration is carried out by, among others, Italian Eni, French Total and American ExxonMobil. When the Turkish Navy stopped an Eni research vessel in the EEZ of Cyprus in February, Rome decided to send a frigate. A violation of the interests of any of these companies will translate into the military involvement of other states, which may entail a conflict on a global scale.

Turkish exploration in the disputed area is planned to last until 1 February. Ankara, promising to take steps to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, accused Greece of carrying out an arbitrary demarcation of sea borders, which triggered the whole chain of events.

We expect that the conflict over gas around Cyprus will intensify because Turkey needs its own energy resources to reduce the trade deficit caused by the increase in the costs of the gas and oil imports.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...nflict-deepens-new-flashpoint-med-intensifies
 

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General Motors offers voluntary buyouts to 18,000 workers in a bid to cut costs after posting $2.5billion profit - but warns it will consider layoffs if it doesn't get enough takers

  • General Motors reported a healthy $2.5billion third-quarter profit
  • They are offering buyouts to 18,000 white-collar workers to cut costs
  • The automaker said it need to be smaller to prepare for tough times ahead
  • Workers have until Nov 19 to make a decision and would be out by year end
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6337497/Rising-prices-margins-drive-GMs-quarter.html
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 1 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 1, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 1 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 1, 2018
 

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America's hottest job markets: Mid-sized cities with universities and large employers lead the nation in new employment opportunities

  • While unemployment has fallen to a low 3.7 percent, not every region is adding jobs at the an equal pace
  • A new analysis ranks the top city in each state for job growth, revealing that Lake Charles, Louisiana had the biggest employment expansion in the U.S. at 28.3 percent from 2013-2018, with a median income of $52,314
  • Bend-Redmond, Oregon ranked second, posting employment growth of 26.6 percent during the same period
  • Cheyenne, Wyoming ranked dead last with a negative job growth rate during that period of -3.6 percent

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...loyers-lead-nation-new-job-opportunities.html
 

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US Approves Waivers On Iranian Oil Imports As Supply Panic Fades


by Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/02/2018 - 06:43


With oil prices already extending the drop from their highs as the trader "panic attack" identified by celebrated energy analyst Art Berman abates, and approaching a bear market from recent highs, a Friday morning report from Bloomberg will likely ensure that prices continue to move lower.

According to an anonymous "senior administration official", the US will soon approve waivers for eight countries, including Japan, India and South Korea, that will allow them to continue buying Iranian crude oil even after sanctions are reimposed on Monday. China is also believed to be in talks to secure a waiver, while the other four countries weren't identified. The waivers are part of a bargain for continued import cuts, which the administration hopes will lead to lower oil prices. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to announce the exemptions on Friday.

Speculation that waivers could be forthcoming had been brewing for some time, and has been one of the factors driving oil prices lower in recent weeks. Pompeo has acknowledged that waivers were being considered for countries who insist that they depend on Iranian supplies, while adding that "it is our expectation that the purchases of Iranian crude oil will go to zero from every country or sanctions will be imposed." Assuming the US does follow through with the waivers, it's expected that they would be temporary, and the US would expect that the recipients would continue to wean themselves off Iranian crude. The administration will also reportedly ask that these countries reduce their trade in non-energy goods.

It's believed that Turkey, another major importer of Iranian crude, may be one of the four working on an exemption, according to Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez told reporters in Ankara on Friday. Iran was Ankara’s biggest source of oil last year, accounting for more than 25% of Turkey’s daily average imports of around 830,000 barrels. The identities of the recipients are expected to be released on Monday as sanctions take effect.



Despite the international outcry over Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran deal, the administration believes the sanctions are working. According to internal estimates, exports of Iranian crude have fallen to 1.6 million barrels a month, from 2.7 million barrels. That compares favorably to the 1.2 million barrels a month removed from the market under President Obama and the EU during the negotiations for the deal. Obama also extended waivers to 20 countries.

The administration’s decision to issue waivers to eight countries also marked a significant reduction from the Obama administration, which issued such exemptions to 20 countries over three years. During the previous round of sanctions, nations were expected to cut imports by about 20 percent during each 180-day review period to get another exemption.​
And in order to ensure that oil money isn't used by Iran to finance terrorism, the US is reportedly developing an escrow system that will ensure that Iran can only spend its oil money on food, medicine and other crucial supplies.

Countries that get waivers under the revived sanctions must pay for the oil into escrow accounts in their local currency. That means the money won’t directly go to Iran, which can only use it to buy food, medicine or other non-sanctioned goods from its crude customers. The administration sees those accounts as an important way of limiting Iranian revenue and further constraining its economy.

"It’s a virtual certainty that Western banks are not going to violate the escrow restrictions," said Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies who has advised Pompeo. "The message they’re sending is don’t screw around with these escrow accounts and try to get cute."​
Oil prices were little-changed following reports of the waivers, though it's possible the reaction could be delayed until Pompeo releases more details about the countries that will be granted the waivers, and the details of what the waivers will look like.



It's also possible that, since the killing of Jamal Khashoggi has thrown a wrench in the US's plans to enlist Saudi help to further pressure the Iranian energy industry, that the likelihood of waivers had already been priced in.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...aivers-iranian-oil-imports-supply-panic-fades
 

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Dollar Index Forms Major Double Top as Gold Has Stellar Day.
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Published on Nov 2, 2018
 

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Global Stocks Soar As Trump Doubles-Down On China Trade Deal Hopes


by Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/02/2018 - 07:30


World stock markets are closing out the week on a euphoric note, with Asian and European stocks and S&P futures roaring higher on Friday amid a sea of green on Friday on renewed hopes that the US and China were starting to repair their badly damaged trade relations.



As shown in the table above, stocks extended gains around the world, as Treasuries dropped and the dollar tumbled on Friday on the back of fresh hopes for trade between the world’s two biggest economies. The buying frenzy was unleashed after Bloomberg News reported that Trump was interested in reaching an agreement on trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 nations summit in Argentina this month, and has asked key officials to begin drafting potential terms.

The latest attempt at easing trade tensions (and boosting stocks, incidentally just 5 days before the midterm elections) came less than 24 hours after Trump tweeted that he held a "long and very good conversation" with China's President Xi, in which trade was the key topic and "discussions are moving along nicely."

Whether or not the news was signal or more noise - and we've had a lot of it in the past 6 months - it achieved its goal, resulting in a surge in Asian stocks that included 2.5-4% leaps for most of region’s big bourses, taking gains on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to 5% for the week and put the world’s main emerging market index up 3%, on course for its best day and week since early 2016. Even China was quick to forget about its trade troubles, as the Shanghai Composite jumped 2.7%...



... while the yuan soared 500 pips as the USDCNH tumbled from 6.93 to 6.88



Europe was overjoyed too. Germany's export-heavy DAX jumped 1.5% in its best start since July with Volkswagen +4.5%, pushing the DAX up to best levels this week, while European shares were headed for their best week since late 2016. The Stoxx Europe 600 was over 1% higher taking this week’s gain to 4.1 percent. Even the long-suffering auto and mining sectors edged higher. Luxury and chemicals got a boost, as did technology shares that might otherwise be fretting more over Apple’s disappointing sales forecast.



European earnings have improved lately, though this quarter is still the weakest season in four years as margin pressures build, according to Morgan Stanley. Earnings revisions are at the lowest in 2 1/2 years, while share prices have reacted more strongly to result misses than they have to beats, the U.S. bank said. On the other hand, final Mfg PMIs from around Europe came in slightly on the softer side of prelims while Italian manufacturing shrank the most in nearly four years, but trade news trumped data this morning, however fleeting that may be. BTPs print fresh highs having been knocked on the data, Bund/BTP spread tightens to 289bp.

Meanwhile, even the long-running Brexit drama saw a positive twist this week, with Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab saying he expects a deal by Nov. 21. That’s caused the FTSE 100 to underperform Europe for a third-straight day, as the pound continues to gain.

Dow Jones and S&P futures were also up almost one percent ahead of the monthly non-farm payrolls jobs data, and even the Nasdaq was higher despite the drop in Apple shares pre-market trading after underwhelming sales forecasts.



There was no hiding from today's euphoria: an index of emerging-market equities jumped the most since March 2016, while currencies from South Korea to Australia joined the rally.

As risk aversion faded, the Bloomberg dollar index tumbled back below 1200 and commodity currencies rallied. Risk-sensitive currencies and stocks extended their recent rebound as the onshore yuan headed for biggest two-day gain since January.



Sterling made ground again to $1.30 on hopes London is closing in on transitional deal for when it leaves the EU next year. If it doesn’t slip it will be the second best week of the year for the pound. Thursday was its best day of the year. “Were it not for Brexit uncertainty, the Bank of England would probably have laid the groundwork (at its meeting on Thursday) for its next rate hike,” BNP Paribas analysts said in a note.

Overall, prospects for easing protectionist tensions are helping round out a week that’s seen appetite for risk assets return following the October rout in equities; the question of course is how much of what Trump has said is just an attempt to goose stocks into the midterms.

"Either President Trump is paving the way for a trade deal being agreed at the Buenos Aires G-20 summit later this month, or he’s cynically driving up equity indices ahead of U.S. mid-terms,” said SocGen FX strategist Kit Juckes. “What’s for sure, is that talk of a trade deal has added further juice to the last few day’s risk appetite."

"When Trump wants to bump the market ahead of the mid-terms the market likes it," Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy referring to next week’s mid-term U.S. elections. Hardy said while it might just be “political theater” from Trump for now, the real test would come when he and China’s President Xi Jinping meet at a summit of world leaders later this month in Argentina.

Meanwhile, doubts remain on the capacity of earnings to deliver. Apple’s disappointing forecast for the key holiday period suggested weaker-than-expected demand for the company’s pricier new iPhones. Next up is the U.S. jobs report for October later Friday, while U.S. mid-term elections next week are also weighing on investors’ minds.

As for the renewed euphoria of world trade peace, Bloomberg notes that talks between the U.S. and China may not be straightforward, with intellectual property theft still a stumbling block. A Chinese state-owned company was charged Thursday with conspiring to steal trade secrets from American chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. as the Justice Department steps up actions against the Asian nation in cases of suspected economic espionage.

In rates, Europe’s bond yields rose already on the rise as economists expect a 200,000 rise in U.S. jobs and see hourly earnings increasing 3.1% Y/Y. US 10Y Treasury yields with 3bps higher, at 3.1627%.

In commodity markets, metals led the charge on the hopes a trade deal will prevent China’s resource-hungry economy faltering. Three-month copper on the LME climbed as much as 2.5% to $6,240.50 a ton, its highest in a week. Other base metals were up across the board too, with zinc rising 1.8 percent, nickel climbing 1.7 percent, lead up 1.3 percent and aluminum gaining 0.9 percent.

Meanwhile, WTI was steady as fears over a supply disruption eased after the U.S. was said to agree on giving waivers to eight nations to continue importing Iranian crude. Bloomberg’s gauge of industrial metals extended a rebound from a 15-month low as copper, zinc and nickel led gains in other raw materials.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 2,762.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 367.19
  • MXAP up 2.5% to 154.05
  • MXAPJ up 3.1% to 493.46
  • Nikkei up 2.6% to 22,243.66
  • Topix up 1.6% to 1,658.76
  • Hang Seng Index up 4.2% to 26,486.35
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.7% to 2,676.48
  • Sensex up 2.1% to 35,165.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,849.21
  • Kospi up 3.5% to 2,096.00
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $72.59/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,234.99
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.10
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.5 bps to 0.434%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1438
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $72.58/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.6 bps to 3.01%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 1.578%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • President Donald Trump has asked key U.S. officials to begin drafting possible trade deal with China as the two leaders look to meet at G-20 summit this month in Argentina; said will make the right deal with China, President Xi “wants to do it”
  • Xi says China will cut taxes, give market access to help private firms
  • PBOC: China will speed up opening; sees continued "gray rhino" financial risks; economic and financial risks are controllable overall
  • The U.S. has agreed to let eight countries keep buying Iranian oil after it reimposes sanctions on the OPEC producer on Nov. 5, according to a senior administration official
  • The Financial Times reported that EU Brexit negotiators are exploring a plan for Northern Ireland that would give U.K. stronger guarantees that a customs border won’t be needed
  • Eurozone final Oct. Markit Mfg PMI: 52.0 vs 52.1 flash; fall in order books as exports decline for first time nearly 5.5Y
  • Riksbank’s Ingves: matters little whether hike in Dec. or Feb.
  • U.S. is said to give 8 countries oil waivers under Iran sanctions
Asian equity markets tracked their Wall St counterparts higher after US stocks posted a 3rd consecutive gain with sentiment underpinned by optimism regarding US-China trade after what US President Trump described as a ‘very good’ conversation between him and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Furthermore, reports that Trump asked the cabinet to draft a potential China trade deal added fuel to the rally and helped US equity futures recover from the after-market pressure triggered by declines in Apple shares after the tech giant missed on iPhone and iPad sales, provided soft Q1 revenue guidance and announced to halt product unit sales data. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) were mixed throughout most the session with Australia dampened by energy names after WTI crude futures slipped 2.7% to below USD 64.00/bbl on higher OPEC production in October, while the Japanese benchmark surged on a weaker currency and the encouraging trade related news. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+4.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.7%) also rose aggressively on the positive developments between US and China, with gains led by strength in tech names as well as casino stocks post-Macau gaming revenue numbers. Finally, 10yr JGBs were eventually flat as the initial upside was wiped out as US-China trade hopes were kindled by overnight reports, while the BoJ were also in the market today and increased its purchase amounts in the 1-5yr JGBs which was unsurprising given the reduction in the number of occasions it had planned for those purchases this month.

Top Asian News
  • Chinese Property Dollar Bond Demand Wanes Amid Heavy Supply
  • Fraud-Hit PNB’s Losses Mount as Provisions Surge to $1.3 Billion
  • $2.8 Million to Switch Sides? Bribe Allegation Rattles Sri Lanka
  • ’Wrath of Markets?’ New Delhi Pokes at India’s Central Bank
  • Donmez: Turkey May Be Among Nations Exempted From Iran Sanctions
Main European indices are in the green, continuing the trend from Asia. The FSTE MIB (+1.5%) is leading after reports in Il Sole that Banca Carige are the only Italian bank seen as fragile; while the SMI is lagging (+0.1%) after the US FDA announced that Roche’s (-1.5%) recall is Class 1. Indices are mixed with materials (+2.3%) outperforming due to trade progression between the US and China, notably President Trump said to have asked his cabinet to draft a potential trade deal. In terms of individual equities Kering (+5%) are higher after being upgraded at RBC, which has had a knock-on impact on other luxury names such as Burberry (4.5%), Moncler (+5.5%) and LVMH (+3.8%) who are up in sympathy. Separately, BMW (+2.5%) are up as they state they are expanding their car share service into 5 more London boroughs.

Top European News
  • Russian Missile Tests Ground Helicopters to Norway Oil Platforms
  • It’s Crunch Time for Trump Versus the World on Iran Sanctions
  • Macquarie Lures Prop Traders to London After Rivals Retreated
  • British Airways Owner Lifts Long Term Profit Goals: IAG Update
  • Italy Considers Amending Rules on Strategic Industry M&A: Sole
In currencies, there was no respite for the Dollar, as its retracement from midweek peaks continues, albeit at a more measured pace. The latest downturn comes amidst reports that US President Trump has commissioned a draft trade accord with China following his encouraging chat with Xi and plans for a dinner+ date between the 2 at the upcoming G20 summit in Argentina. The Greenback is weaker vs all G10 counterparts, bar the JPY, which is still bucking the trend as an even safer currency haven, although the headline pair has topped out just above 113.00+ again and is back below its 30 DMA at 112.85, which could be pivotal on a closing basis.

On that note, the DXY looks precarious just a fraction ahead of 96.000 in advance of NFP that could determine whether the index stabilises, recoils further or rebounds.

AUD - The major outperformer and main beneficiary of constructive dialogue between China and the US, with Aud/Usd extending its marked recovery to 0.7250 before fading and essentially tracking Yuan moves after a considerably lower Usd/Cny fix overnight.

EUR/CHF/NZD/GBP/CAD - All firmer vs the Buck, with the single currency not deterred by some downbeat Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and breaching a key Fib at 1.1426 to expose 1.1450 before 1.1460. However, a cluster of hefty option expiries, and 3.1 bn at the 1.1400 strike may stall Eur/Usd, ahead of 1.6 bn between 1.1450-60. The Franc is back above parity, and perhaps belatedly taking some note of SNB commentary yesterday about the inevitability of tighter policy, while the Kiwi continues to piggy-back its Antipodean peer with gains up towards 0.6700 before waning. Elsewhere, Cable has sustained 1.3000+ status after a knee-jerk visit post-BoE super Thursday, and cleared its 10 DMA circa 1.3005-10 with the aid of more positive-sounding Brexit reports (on paper), but respecting the 100 DMA from 1.3045-50. The Loonie is holding near the upper end of 1.3050-1.3100 parameters and also has jobs data looming to provide some independent direction.

EM - Broad gains vs the Usd, with the Try through 5.5000 and Cnh breaking 6.9000, but Rub lagging against the backdrop of still soggy oil prices.

In commodities, WTI (-0.1%) and Brent (+0.3%) began the session lower following increased oil supply from Russia, OPEC and the US for October, notably the highest OPEC level since December 2016; an increase which has thrust the oil market into an oversupply dragging down prices. However, this has since reverted as Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister commented that he is unsure if waivers are permanent; comments which follow reports that 8 countries have received waivers allowing them to continue to purchase Iranian oil. Gold (+0.1%) is continuing the steady trade seen in Asia overnight, although off of yesterday’s highs of USD 1237.39/oz as market sentiment improves following Presidents Trump and Xi expressing optimism over the trade dispute. Separately, Trump has initiated an executive order preventing anyone within the US from dealing with anyone associated with gold sales from Venezuela. US is to give 8 countries waivers on new Iran oil sanctions, according to sources; updates to follow on the breakdown but India and South Korea have been touted as two of the nations.

Looking ahead to today, the highlight is almost certain to be the October employment report in the US this afternoon however prior to that this morning we’ll get the final manufacturing PMI revisions in Europe including those for the Euro Area, France and Germany, as well as a first look at the data for the periphery. Also out this morning is the September import price index reading in Germany, while in the US we’ll also get the September trade balance, September factory orders and final September durable and capital goods orders data. Away from that, the BoE’s Tenreyro is due to take part on the panel of an IMF conference while the big earnings releases include Berkshire Hathaway, Alibaba, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and AbbVie.

US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $53.6b deficit, prior $53.2b deficit
  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 200,000, prior 134,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 2.8%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 2.3%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, prior 0.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.1%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.0%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Early in the session yesterday it had looked like US equity markets might have had their legs taken away from them after this week’s rally. This followed a softer than expected ISM reading (more below) but a more upbeat comment from President Trump on Twitter about potential upcoming trade talks with China seemed to kick start a steadily climbing market for most of the rest of day. The S&P 500 rallied +1.06% which means it is now up +3.75% in the last three sessions. So it’s recouped about a third of the loss the index took into October 29th from the end of September. That three-day gain is the biggest since immediately following the US elections in November 2016 now for the S&P. The DOW (+1.06% yesterday) has also had its strongest three-day run since November 2016 while the NASDAQ (+1.75% yesterday) and NYSE FANG index (+2.56% yesterday) have had the strongest runs since June and February 2016 respectively.

Apple earnings poured a bit of cold water on things after the bell though. Earnings per share and revenue both beat the consensus forecasts at $2.91 versus $2.78 and $62.9bn versus $61.4bn, but the company’s guidance was disappointing. In addition, Apple sold fewer iPads, Macs, and iPhones than expected, and the stock traded around -6% lower in after hours trading.

In Asia S&P futures were initially down around 0.5% on the back of Apple but more positive China/US trade headlines have reversed this as we type. They are now up 0.6%. Looking at the trade headlines chronologically, the tweet from President Trump which helped markets to bounce in the morning US session was a vote of confidence from the President that conversations with Chinese President Xi Jingping on trade and also North Korea ahead of the G20 meeting later this month are “moving along nicely." Reuters followed with a headline quoting Xi as saying that the President hopes China and the US can promote a steady and healthy relationship. The reporting by Chinese state-run television was similarly rosy, saying that Trump "cherishes the good relationship with the Chinse president" and that Xi "wishes to keep the Sino-US relationship healthy and stable."

Overnight, following yesterday’s call between the US President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping, Trump has asked his key cabinet secretaries to have their staff draw up a potential deal to signal a ceasefire in an escalating trade conflict. This was reported by Bloomberg citing unidentified sources. In the meantime, China’s daily South China Morning Post reported, quoting unidentified sources, that Mr Trump has offered to host a dinner for Chinese President Xi Jinping on December 1 in Buenos Aires after the G20 leaders summit, an invitation China has tentatively accepted.

The possible thaw in the trade war has helped risk gain momentum in Asia this morning. The Nikkei (+2.36%), Hang Seng (+3.58%), Shanghai Comp (+2.14%) and Kospi (+3.46%) are all up along with most Asian markets. Asia FX is largely up on the pause in trade war escalations with export oriented countries leading the gains - the Taiwan dollar (+0.85%), South Korean Won (+1.43%), China’s onshore yuan (+0.23%) and Australian dollar (+0.51%) are all up.

In spite of the rebound this week, October won’t be forgotten in a hurry, given the extent of the sell-off across markets. This is a good time to remind readers that we published our usual monthly performance review yesterday for October as a supplement to the usual EMR. You can find the link here .In it, we show an interesting chart that highlights how 2018 is shaping up to be the worst year on record in terms of breadth of negative assets returns in dollar terms, with data going back to 1901. In our sample, 89% of assets have now seen negative total returns in dollar terms this year. That is after 2017 saw the ‘best’ performance on this measure with just 1% (or 1 asset) with a negative dollar return. Hardly a coincidence in our view that this occurred as we moved from peak global QE to global QT over the past 2 years.

With markets faring well into the end of the week, there’s still one more test with today’s payrolls report in the US due up. The market consensus is for a 200k reading following that softer-than-expected 134k last month. Our US economists expect a 185k print, but believe that risks are to the downside due to the hurricane disruptions. Our colleagues expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.7% (with risks it rounds down to 3.6%) while they expect average hourly earnings to rise +0.2% mom and to a new post-crisis high of 3.1% yoy - the highest since early 2009. This represents a jump of almost 40bps from the September reading which is largely due to base effects from October 2017, when earnings plunged after Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria boosted September 2017’s print.

Staying with economics, our German economics yesterday downgraded their near-term growth forecasts in light of recent data and also published the first big DB 2019 Outlook piece. In it they revised down their third quarter GDP forecast from 0.4% for 0.0.%, and their 2019 projection to 1.3% from 1.7%. This partially reflects the disruptions from new emissions standards, but it is also attributable to softer external demand as net exports drag on growth. On the political front, snap elections look more likely after Chancellor Merkel’s decision to not seek another term as party leader. The continuity replacement candidate would be Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, while a slightly more conservative and market-friendly option would be Friedrich Merz. Regardless, the SPD will reconsider its membership in the grand coalition and snap elections could come sooner than many currently expect.

Back to yesterday and European markets lagged behind the US with the STOXX 600 closing +0.41% and the DAX +0.18% - the former hindered by a struggling energy sector after oil tumbled around -2.5% following the latest supply numbers from OPEC which showed crude production had climbed to the highest level since 2016. European Banks did, however, finish up +1.47% - the third >1% rise for the index in the last six sessions – while bonds were slightly weaker at the margin (Bunds +1.4bps) with the exception of BTPs which ended -4.8bps lower in yield. Treasury yields turned lower after the ISM manufacturing print which declined 2.1pts from September to a below market 57.7 (vs. 59.0 expected). New orders tumbled 4.4pts to 57.4 and employment 2pts to 56.8. While these headline moves looked a lot softer than expected its worth putting the overall level in the context of what is still a number firmly in growth territory. Plus, the prices paid subindex rose to 71.6 versus the expected 69.0. It’s therefore unlikely to deter the Fed from the current path with respect to the growth outlook.

Here in the UK, we had the double act of a BoE meeting and more Brexit headlines. Gilt yields faded from early highs to close just +1.8bps higher, however Sterling rallied +1.93% for its biggest gain since April 2017 and in the process edged above $1.300 again after trading as low as 1.2696 just three days ago. The BoE meeting wasn’t much of game changer with policy left unchanged as expected, but with minor tweaks to the Inflation Report (mostly in line with our expectations) tilting the outlook slightly towards the hawkish side.

As for Brexit, well the Times “financial services deal” article that was out early yesterday morning was quickly downplayed from all sides, however a more material story was the MNI article which said that the EU is moving toward a semi-temporary customs union arrangement for the whole of the UK. Such a setup would apparently include strong regulatory alignment and would have no fixed end-date. This would likely be sufficient to prevent the imposition of border checks in Northern Ireland (between NI and either Ireland or the rest of the UK), which should keep the DUP onside. We have long viewed this outcome as the most likely, though it is likely to enrage the hard Brexit wing of the Conservative government, potentially raising the odds of a political crisis if the story is confirmed. Later in the session, the FT reported a similar story about the proposed deal, and the pound held its gains. The chatter of late points to a deal being in sight but then the domestic political fun and games will start.

Apart from the ISM print, covered above, US data showed that productivity rose +2.2% qoq in the third quarter while unit labour costs increased +1.2%. This indicates that the supply side of economy may be improving, while inflationary pressures simultaneously continue to build.

September construction spending printed at 0.0% as expected, but August was revised up to +0.8% from +0.1%. This presents upside risks to the second print of third quarter GDP. The only notable data releases in Europe were the UK’s nationwide house price index (which rose +1.6% versus expectations for +1.9%) and the October manufacturing PMI, which fell to 51.1 compared to consensus forecasts for 53.0. That’s its lowest level since July 2016 immediately following the Brexit referendum

Looking ahead to today, the highlight is almost certain to be the October employment report in the US this afternoon however prior to that this morning we’ll get the final manufacturing PMI revisions in Europe including those for the Euro Area, France and Germany, as well as a first look at the data for the periphery. Also out this morning is the September import price index reading in Germany, while in the US we’ll also get the September trade balance, September factory orders and final September durable and capital goods orders data. Away from that, the BoE’s Tenreyro is due to take part on the panel of an IMF conference while the big earnings releases include Berkshire Hathaway, Alibaba, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and AbbVie.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...oar-trump-doubles-down-china-trade-deal-hopes
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 2 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 2, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 2 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 2, 2018
 

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Economic Collapse Scenario
Silver Fortune


Published on Nov 2, 2018
Hope you enjoy!

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. Silver Bar at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

Support Silver Fortune through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/silverfortune

Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: 5-9, November 2018: Gold, Silver & Crude Oil Price Forecast
TheGoldAndSilverClub


Published on Nov 3, 2018
JOIN THE LIVE TRADING ROOM HERE ▶ http://www.jointhelivetradingroom.com/
▶ To Receive LIVE Trade Alerts, Mentorship & Expert Insights For Profitable Commodity Trading.

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The Gold & Silver Club is an international Commodities Trading, Research and Advisory Group specializing in the Metals, Energy and Agriculture markets.
Learn More ▶ https://www.thegoldandsilverclub.com/
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© 2018 The Gold & Silver Club Limited
 

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Dollar's Supremacy Continues to Wane as Russia and India Deal in Rubles.
maneco64


Published on Nov 3, 2018
 

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Saturday Scrap - What Prices Were Reported This Week - 11/3/18
iScrap App


Published on Nov 3, 2018
Check Scrap Prices Today: https://iScrapApp.com/ - Tom read through some of the reported scrap prices this week to see where prices have been. Every week we will post scrap prices on our blog and also we are LIVE every Wednesday on Facebook.

Download the iScrap App:
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If you have video requests for us, comment below or email us at: info@iscrapapp.com. Happy iScrapping!
 

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LBMA Gold Transparency Chart | Louis Cammarosano of Smaulgld
SilverDoctors


Published on Nov 2, 2018
Bullion deals https://SDBullion.com/deals
Gold Silver Podcast http://www.SilverDoctors.com/precious...

In this episode, we'll blow some mathematical holes into the LBMA's ongoing transparency push. As well, into the general western world silver and gold price containment machinations which judging by the price data have often been in effect from the 1980s up to today.

And too, we'll cover a gold related Executive Order signed by President Trump this week as the US Treasury continues sanctioning the Venezuelan regime headed by dictator Nicolas Maduro.

Additional show notes, price CHARTS, and backlinks with further information - https://sdbullion.com/blog/lbma-gold-...

SUBSCRIBE for more precious metal related content.
 

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Weekly Market Update 11-3-2018
boubin2


Published on Nov 3, 2018
This week I review the Cameco Q3 report. Based on what I am seeing it is obvious we are in the beginning stages of a uranium bull market. I also review the G&R Q3 letter which is heavy on oil and why it is in a long term bull market.

Cameco Q3 Earnings Call Transcript:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4217...
 

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Opinion: Trump’s Iran Sanctions Won’t Squeeze Oil Markets
November 2, 2018 by Bloomberg


Photo: Anatoly Menzhiliy / Shutterstock

By Ellen R. Wald (Bloomberg Opinion) — New U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, set to begin on Sunday, were supposed to exert maximum pressure on Iran’s economy. Since the pullout from the Iran nuclear deal was announced in May, the Trump administration has claimed a goal of cutting Iran’s oil exports to zero. Officials have repeatedly said that they expected customers to halt all Iranian oil imports and that no waivers or exceptions would be forthcoming. Markets took this rhetoric very seriously. Oil prices shot up by $11 per barrel between July and October on news that as much as 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day could be eliminated from the global supply.

But today came a bombshell: Bloomberg News reports that the State Department will be offering “temporary” exemptions to up to eight countries and jurisdictions to import Iranian oil. Japan, India and South Korea are apparently among that group, while the unnamed jurisdiction is probably Taiwan. While the exemptions allow these nations to continue to buy Iranian oil, they must gradually cut those imports in the months ahead or possibly face U.S. punishments.

The number of exemptions — which differ from the Obama administration’s sanctions both in being called temporary and in mandating far more significant reductions in imports over time — came as a shock to many experts in both national security and the oil industry. But in fact, anybody paying close attention should have come to the realization that the inflexible and unwavering stance from the Trump administration was likely a negotiating tactic — that extreme bluster followed by a calmer acceptance of some exports was always the president’s plan. Call it the Art of the Iran Deal.

The question now is whether the administration can or will change its mind and turn its original tough talk into actual policy if need be.
In May, when Trump announced his plan to reinstate sanctions, Iran was exporting a record 2.8 million barrels per day at market prices. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. foreign policy goal was to force Iran to “behave like a normal nation.” This means forcing it to withdraw from its adventurism in Syria, Iraq and Yemen; to stop supporting Hezbollah and global terrorism; and to end its nuclear ambitions. U.S. leverage was increased by Iran’s economic collapse and ensuing popular protests.

Specifically, the Trump administration insisted that countries that purchased oil from Iran and financial institutions that facilitated the transfer of funds for Iranian oil would be subject to fines and other penalties. Washington said it might also enforce so-called secondary sanctions on institutions that do business with Iran, meaning it would restrict U.S. businesses from interacting with institutions that, for example, process payments from Chinese refineries to the Iranian central bank. These secondary sanctions work because the U.S. economy is large enough that countries and global businesses fear losing access to the American market more than they need cheap Iranian oil. This threat even had one immediate effect: the French oil giant Total pulled out of its partnership to develop an Iranian gas field almost immediately.

Then, as the sanctions date grew near, everything changed: it became clear the administration was willing to negotiate for the best deal it could get with Iran’s customers. Even though refineries in India, China, Turkey, Japan and South Korea had indicated that they planned to stop importing Iranian oil, the numbers told a different story. According to TankerTrackers.com, China, India, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey each still imported more than 100,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, while China and India each bought at least 700,000 daily.

This was a reduction from previous highs, but still a significant amount of oil. One reason for it was that Iran made things more enticing to customers to buck U.S. sanctions by discounting its oil prices and offering to pay the shipping costs. This cuts into the Iranian government’s profit, but still brings in much-needed money. And it was a clear indication that the world suspected the Trump administration was wavering in its no-exports stance.

Another tipoff came on Wednesday, when National Security Adviser John Bolton acknowledged that the zero imports goal would not be achieved immediately. And today’s news that eight of Iran’s present and past customers will be getting exemptions is the ultimate proof that talking tough and going soft was the Trump administration’s plan from the outset.

This is a tactic Trump has used in trade negotiations with North Korea, Canada, Mexico and even the EU. The administration employs a harsh and unwavering initial stance that later gives way to a negotiated settlement in which the U.S. achieves some of its stated aims, but not all. In this case, the goal is to drastically decrease Iran’s revenue, and the harsh stance was a tool to ensure much lower exports at heavily discounted prices, resulting in significantly decreased profits for Iran.

Not only will the exemptions keep some important U.S. allies happy, but by keeping more Iranian oil on the market than previously expected, the administration helps prevent oil prices from rising too high, so American consumers do not suffer from price shock. The exemptions will bring additional volatility to oil markets, because how much Iranian oil stays of the market will depend on word from the Trump administration. Exemptions could be revoked or changed with little signaling to the market.

To some extent, this approach makes sense: It is not clear whether even the toughest economic sanctions possible could cause Iran “behave normally.” But, unlike cutting a deal with Canada, the repercussions are more severe. If Iran continues to make money from its oil exports, it can continue to export terrorism, build up its military, and perhaps re-start its nuclear program.

If the Trump administration wants to cut off Iran’s revenue to the point where the Iranian government cannot afford to fund military and terrorist activity abroad, it will have to keep up the pressure on Iran’s customers. Exemptions will need to be re-evaluated monthly, with accurate data on Iran’s crude oil and condensates exports.

But the Trump administration still has a fine line to walk between squeezing Iran’s oil and pushing up global oil prices too quickly. For example, it needs a breakthrough with the fraught negotiations between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to put their shared oil fields back into production, and with the Iraqi government to allow more northern Iraqi oil to be exported through the Kurdistan Regional Government’s pipeline to Turkey. The Trump administration has bought itself several months of reprieve. But it has to keep a close eye on the effect of the exemptions on both Iran and its customers and, if called for, actually take the hard line it promised for so long.

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P

https://gcaptain.com/opinion-trumps-iran-sanctions-wont-squeeze-oil-markets/
 

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Amazon is reportedly in the advanced stages of naming Crystal City, Virginia as the location for its second headquarters

  • The internet retail giant is in the advanced stages of opening its second headquarters in Northern Virginia
  • Amazon held discussions about opening its second outpost in Crystal City
  • The company is assessing 20 locations on its shortlist for the new facility
  • Company CEO Jeff Bezos said the decision is ultimately one 'you make with your heart' earlier this week but gave no indication of locations he favored
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ng-second-headquarters-Northern-Virginia.html
 

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farm talk november 4 18
Ag Talk In The Raw


Streamed live 3 hours ago
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
 

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Sunday Night Market Watch LIVE!! Gold & Silver
SalivateMetal


Streamed live 2 hours ago
 

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Global Stock Rally Fizzles As Trade Hopes Fade, Rate Worries Return


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/05/2018 - 06:54


Last week's four-day rally, which was driven by hopes of easing in trade tensions between the US and China, fizzled with US equity futures mixed, stocks in Europe struggling for direction and Asian shares declining on Monday as concerns over another poor Caixin Service PMI report out of China and rising US interest rates dampened risk appetite while optimism over a potential America-China trade deal receded as investors shifted focus on the US midterm elections Tuesday and the Fed's rate decision later this week.



Asian stocks dropped as skepticism over the outcome of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China persists. While Chinese President Xi Jinping hit back against President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies, he didn’t outline any new proposals that would suggest he was prepared to meet Trump’s demands in his much-anticipated speech today. Meanwhile Berkshire Hathaway rose in pre-market trading after operating profit doubled in the third-quarter and the company bought back almost $1 billion in stock in a rare repurchase.

European telecom and utilities companies were among the biggest advancers as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index eventually edged up, though futures on the Dow and S&P 500 were slightly weaker. Major European indices are mixed, with Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.5%) leading the gains, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.4%) lagging as the index is weighed on by local banking names such as Banco BPM (-2.5%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.0%) following the release of stress test results, which showed the former as the worst performing Italian lender following a slump in the nation’s bonds amid political turmoil, while Goldman Sachs analysts predicted more cuts to earnings forecasts for Italian lenders, cutting BPER Banca and Intesa Sanpaolo to “sell”. Furthermore, Barclays (-0.1%) and Lloyds Banking Group (-0.8%) were amongst the worst performers due to weak growth, credit losses and Brexit uncertainty.

Earlier shares in Asia slid following Friday’s rally and after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow downplayed the potential for a quick deal with China and denied Washington has drafted a trade agreement with Beijing. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan lost 1.2% percent, slipping back toward last week’s 18-month trough. Also overnight, President Xi Jinping acknowledged conditions abroad had created some challenges for the Chinese economy, but promised to lower import tariffs and continue to broaden market access. The Shanghai Composite dropped as much as 2% before recouping most losses by the close.



U.S. stock futures were down as much as 0.3% in early trading amid concerns a trade deal between the United States and China may not be struck soon, before recovering much of their losses. "After a four-day rally people tend to become a bit exhausted - and just generally I feel like everyone’s on hold until the (end-November) G20 and also the Fed coming up,” said Gregory Perdon, chief investment officer at Arbuthnot Latham. At the same time, the S&P's critical 200DMA support level has now become resistance.



Politics and central banks loom large in a busy week for global markets. U.S. congressional elections, seen as a referendum on the policies of President Donald Trump, take place Tuesday. On the Brexit front, Prime Minister Theresa May is due to discuss the latest proposals with her cabinet the same day. Investors then turn their eyes to the Fed’s policy meeting. Though officials are expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at their penultimate 2018 meeting Thursday, clues will be sought for moves into 2019.

With the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and Thursday, the prospect of even tighter U.S. monetary policy after strong economic data is also on investors’ minds, pushing emerging market lower by 0.9%. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a December rate hike with further tightening to 2.75-3.00% seen through 2019. Tighter monetary policy, a stronger dollar, and trade tariffs have created what Citi strategists call “Trump’s triple tightening” this year. “This ...has slowed growth and raised risks around the world,” they wrote.

Investors were also cautious ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Opinion polls show a strong chance the Democratic Party could win control of the House of Representatives after two years of wielding no practical political power in Washington, with Trump’s Republican Party likely to hold the Senate. “What’s spooking the market is not Congress or Senate - what’s spooking the market is the volatility of Trump,” said Perdon. “I’m not convinced if there’s a change of control that would be able to temper that.”

The British pound briefly jumped to a two-week high on hopes of a Brexit deal, before paring gains to trade up 0.2% at $1.2990. Over the weekend, A Sunday Times report that an all-UK customs deal will be written into the agreement governing Britain's withdrawal from the European Union drove the pound its highest since Oct. 22. Enthusiasm fizzled, however, after May’s office said the report was speculative, even as it noted that 95% of the withdrawal agreement was settled and negotiations were ongoing.

Elsewhere, the yen barely moved after BOJ Governor Kuroda hinted Monday that he wants to normalize monetary policy once the central bank gets closer to its price goal.

The dollar consolidated at the start of an event-packed week in the U.S. that features midterm elections, a Federal Reserve meeting and $83BN auctions on 3- to 30-year maturities.

Treasury yields eased back ever so slightly after rising on Friday. Italian bond yields rose, driving bank stocks down 1.8%.

Crude was on track for a sixth day of declines even as sanctions on Iran oil snapped back into place Monday although softened by waivers that will allow some countries to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily.

Markit Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index are expected on the macro side. Earnings include Marriott International, Avis Budget and Ferrari among others.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures unch 0.3% to 2,724
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.03% to 363.96
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 151.73
  • MXAPJ down 1.2% to 485.92
  • Nikkei down 1.6% to 21,898.99
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,640.39
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 25,934.39
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 2,665.43
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 34,912.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,818.14
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,076.92
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.427%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1379
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to 2.951%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.577%
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $72.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.09% to $1,231.77
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 96.54
Top Overnight News
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping hit back against protectionist trade practices advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump in a speech in which he also pledged to further open his country’s markets
  • May has secured concessions from Brussels that will let her keep all of Britain in a customs union with the European Union to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, the Sunday Times reported
  • While the Bank of Japan still needs to stick persistently with its stimulus program to achieve its 2 percent inflation target, the country is no longer in a situation where it’s best to be "decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation," Governor Kuroda said in a speech. Minutes of BOJ September policy meeting showed that most members thought it appropriate to continue monetary stimulus persistently
  • Denmark is concerned that the EU still doesn’t have a tenable plan to ensure banks maintain access to vital financial infrastructure in the form of London-based clearing services, according to Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen
  • Euro-zone companies are increasingly running into capacity constraints that will boost inflation, the European Central Bank said in a report
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said the nation will cut import taxes further, and buy more than $30 trillion of goods in the next 15 years
  • Contenders to succeed German Chancellor Angela Merkel as party chief will criss-cross the country to campaign ahead of a convention in December, with Friedrich Merz, head of BlackRock Inc’s German asset management unit and a one-time party antagonist of Merkel, seen as the front-runner
  • The speaker of Sweden’s parliament said he will nominate opposition leader Ulf Kristersson as the prime minister candidate next week to break the gridlock in place since an inconclusive election
Asian equity markets began the week with a negative tone after last Friday’s losses on Wall St where the Nasdaq underperformed after tech giant Apple dropped nearly 7%, while sentiment was also dampened by soft Chinese Caixin PMI data and after US-China trade hopes were tempered by pessimism from NEC’s Kudlow. ASX 200 (-0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) were both pressured from the open although stocks in Australia briefly recovered in tandem with the price swings in its largest weighted financial sector as participants mulled over Westpac’s flat FY profits, while focus in Japan remained on corporate updates including index heavyweight Fast Retailing which slumped following a 10% decline in same-store sales. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) were negative after US administration officials downplayed prospects of an imminent resolution to the US-China trade dispute and with Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI at the weakest since September 2017 and June 2016 respectively, while the PBoC Medium-term Lending Facility announcement and President Xi’s pledge to further open up China’s economy only helped plug losses momentarily. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher as the risk averse tone spurred demand for safety. This helped prices recover from Friday’s declines which coincided with a sell-off in T-notes and a surge in US yields by the most in the month following the NFP-beat.

Top Asian News
  • Kuroda Hints at Normalization as Economy Improves
  • Xi Says China to Cut Import Taxes Further, Import $30 Trillion
  • Indonesia’s Economy Shrugs Off Rate Hikes as Growth Exceeds 5%
  • Runaway BHP Iron Ore Train Deliberately Derailed, ATSB Says
  • Thai Union Surges After Earnings Beat Estimates on Tuna Prices
Major European indices are mixed, with Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.5%) leading the gains, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.4%) lagging as the index is weighed on by local banking names such as Banco BPM (-2.5%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.0%) following the release of stress test results, which showed the former as the worst performing Italian lender following a slump in the nation’s bonds amid political turmoil. Furthermore, Barclays (-0.1%) and Lloyds Banking Group (-0.8%) were amongst the worst performers due to weak growth, credit losses and Brexit uncertainty. Moving on, major sectors are mixed with utilities (+0.6%) and consumer staples (+0.6%) outperforming, while industrials are lag (-0.5%). In terms of individual equities, GAM (+2%) shares are in the green after being approached by Schroders (-1.6%) regarding a potential acquisition; which sources say GAM rejected. On the flip side, Hiscox (-7.3%) are lagging in the Stoxx 600, after their earnings showed a substantial increase in written premiums.

Top European News
  • Big Short’s Eisman Is Shorting Two U.K. Banks on Brexit
  • EU Faces a Risk in 2019 That Has Nothing to Do With Populists
  • U.K. Services Growth Slumps as Brexit Hurts Business Optimism
  • Merkel’s Party Turns Inward With All-Out Leadership Contest
  • With Italy Deadline Looming, Dombrovskis Says EU Talking to Rome
In FX, the broad Dollar has lost some of Friday’s post-NFP recovery momentum ahead of the US mid-term elections and FOMC, but the index is holding relatively firm around 96.500 as major pairings trade somewhat mixed.

GBP/NZD - Vying for top spot amongst G10 rivals, and perhaps surprisingly or unexpectedly as the Pound recovers from another UK PMI miss, and from the major services sector. However, Cable is back above 1.3000 from a knee-jerk dip to circa 1.2970 and still benefiting from latest press reports suggesting the EU has made concessions on the Irish border and customs front, albeit someway off high just over 1.3060 at one stage. Similarly, the Kiwi has rebounded firmly from overnight lows on the back of a pretty downbeat NZ Treasury business survey revealing a further deterioration in sentiment over Q3 and risks to the growth outlook for 2018 and next year due to global trade spats. Nzd/Usd back up around 0.6665 vs 0.6635 at worst, with cross-winds also helping as AUD/Nzd remains anchored near 1.0800 and Aud/Usd struggles to climb through 0.7200.

EUR/CAD/JPY/CHF - All underperforming vs the Greenback, with the single currency capped around 1.1400 and still wary about another Italy vs EU face-off on the budget, while the Loonie straddles 1.3100 after last Friday’s NA jobs data (Canadian not as upbeat as US, largely on soft wages) and ahead of a speech by BoC Governor Poloz. Usd/Jpy has nudged further beyond 113.00 and soaked up offers/hedges vs a modest 113.25 option expiry and the Franc is back under parity within a 1.0020-55 range.

EM - Regional currencies are broadly weaker vs the Usd with the Yuans undermined by less encouraging US-China trade vibes and weak Chinese PMIs, while the Try is pivoting 5.4500 in wake of Turkish inflation data showing a further rise in CPI.

In commodities, WTI (-0.3%) and Brent (-0.1%) are just off session lows with choppy trade experienced in the complex following the implementation of oil-related sanctions on Iran by the US. Iranian President emerged stating that Iran will sell oil and break sanctions, while he added that Iran is open to talks with the US once President Trump respects commitments. Temporary exemptions are being granted to eight countries making the sanctions less severe than anticipated, additionally removing the risk of a supply shortage according to FXTM strategist Hussein Sayed. Furthermore, Iranian press noted that the terms of the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) with the EU will be announced soon. The SPV is the European effort to process Iran’s import and export payments. Diplomates said the details are being discussed by finance ministers, with EU Finance Ministers due to meet in Brussels on Tuesday, although the SPV was not on the agenda as of Sunday. Gold (+0.1%) is flat and off of session highs as the yellow metal mirrors USD moves. Elsewhere, copper prices pulled back on profit taking and amid the averse risk tone.

US Event Calendar
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.6, prior 54.7; Composite PMI, prior 54.8
  • 10am: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, est. 59.1, prior 61.6
  • Nov. 5-Nov. 9: Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.36%; MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.05%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Tomorrow’s US mid-term elections are the focal point for the week. My EMR colleague Quinn Brody wrote a preview note last week highlighting that polls and betting markets indicate that the Democrats are likely to take control of the House, while the Republicans are likely to retain Senate control. The major issues for voters are healthcare, immigration, and trade policy. For markets, the key issues are whether to expect further fiscal stimulus, and what the implications are for trade policy. On the former, unified Republican control is likely more bullish, while on the latter, a divided government could de-escalate the current trade conflict.

Either way, our US strategists are unlikely to be swayed from their bullish equities and bearish rates view. Our US equity strategists have written extensively on how markets have historically rallied around midterm elections, though this is equally due to historic coincidence (growth has tended to be strong around elections) as the actual elections. That said they expect this scenario to repeat.

Staying with politics Mr Trump is meeting Presidents Macron and Putin on Friday which could generate headlines while in Germany the CDU party retreat at the weekend could provide headlines today and an update from the party on future leadership directions. Away from that we've also got a Fed meeting with no press conference (Thursday), more global PMI data (today and tomorrow), US PPI (Friday), China trade (Thursday) and inflation data (Friday), and more corporate earnings scheduled.

The weekend news of most note was the UK Sunday Times claiming that PM May has secured concessions from Brussels to allow all of Britain to stay in a customs union with the EU and thus avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland. There have been a lot of Brexit stories in the press of late that have had limited substance but to be fair this potential breakthrough was starting to appear on the wires at the back end of last week.

Indeed DB’s Oliver Harvey published a note on Friday looking at the scenarios around a deal that kept a UK wide customs union before a permanent trade deal could be agreed. He has dubbed this 'Brexiternity'. See his note here for more details. We could hear of progress this week as the UK formally responds to the latest EU proposals on the UK-wise backstop. Indeed there is a UK cabinet meeting tomorrow to discuss the latest developments. Before we relax and think Brexit is running more smoothly we should add that overnight the UK Telegraph has slightly confused the message from the Times article suggesting that the UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has privately demanded in a letter to Mrs May that Britain reserve the right to pull out of the future EU’s Irish backstop after just three months. So uncertainty over where we are will linger. Sterling is up +0.12% in early trade this morning but was up around 0.7% before the Telegraph story filter through.

The week has kicked off with a risk off note in Asia with the Nikkei (-1.32%), Hang Seng (-2.65%), Shanghai Comp (-1.00%) and Kospi (-1.40%) all down along with most Asian markets. This is likely as a result of comments from US President Trump’s economic aide Larry Kudlow who cautioned against thinking there was the prospect of an immediate trade deal with China and that the White House wasn’t asked to draft a deal with China. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.39%) are pointing towards a softer open.

Overnight, China’s October Caixin composite PMI came in at 50.5 (vs. 52.1 in last month) as the services PMI decelerated to 50.8 (vs. 52.8 expected) while Japan’s final October composite PMI came at 52.5 (vs. 50.7 in last month) and services PMI stood at 52.4 (vs. 50.2 last month). Elsewhere, the BoJ Governor Kuroda said that Japan is no longer in a situation where it’s best to be "decisively implementing a large-scale policy to overcome deflation," even as he added that the BoJ still needs to stick persistently with its stimulus program to achieve its 2% inflation target. He reiterated that the BOJ is aware of the downward pressure on commercial banks profitability and the risks to financial stability in the event of a large negative shock, owing to the BoJ’s stimulus program.

Risk assets staged an impressive rally last week, with many of the recent underperformers reversing their trend to finish the week strongly. After a slow October, the S&P 500’s worst month since 2011, the US benchmark rallied +2.42% (-0.63% on Friday though with Apple -6.6%). Other US benchmarks also snapped their recent losing streaks with the NYFANG index up +2.79% (-1.87% Friday), the DOW up +2.36% (-0.43% Friday), and the NASDAQ up +2.65%, (-1.04% Friday). The Russell 2000 of small-cap US firms rose +4.32% (+0.19% Friday), for its best week since February. Equities outside the US also had a strong week, with the STOXX 600 up +3.33% (+0.28% Friday) for its best week since December 2016. The MSCI EM index gained 5.56% (+0.64% Friday), with the Hong Kong Hang Seng leading the way up +7.16% (+4.21% Friday), as news reports suggested that the US and China are approaching a trade détente. In fixed income, 10-year Treasury yields rose +13.7bps (+8.2bps Friday), as the strong nonfarm payrolls report (250k vs 200k expected) boosted sentiment on the US economy. Notably, 10-year real yields are now at their highest levels since February 2011 at 1.15% (+14.4bps last week and +5.0bps Friday), while breakevens were steadier at 2.06% (-0.7bps last week and +3.2bps on Friday).

The dollar touched a fresh year-to-date high during the week, but retraced a bit to close only +0.19% stronger (+0.28% Friday), with its weakness in the latter half of the week partly driven by Chinese yuan strength amid the news of the potential trade reconciliation. The yuan gained +0.79% (+0.28% Friday) for its best week since March. Brent crude oil prices retreated -6.17% (-0.08% Friday) for their worst week since February, as the US granted sanctions waivers for eight countries, signaling that the administration will tolerate some degree of Iranian oil exports, consistent with the prior sanctions episode.

Corporate earnings remain in focus, with 75% of S&P 500 having reported their results so far. Eighty-two percent of companies have beaten consensus expectations on profits, while 61.0% have beaten on revenue. Earnings growth is running at a +26.5% yoy pace in aggregate, quite a robust pace, while sales are growing at a +8.79% yoy pace. Some of the outlooks have been more negative than from recent quarters which has taken the shine of the good headline numbers. In Europe, 57% of STOXX 600 companies have reported, and 50.9% have beaten on earnings expectations, while 53.4% have exceeded revenue forecasts. In aggregate, STOXX 600 profits are up 13.1% yoy, on track for the best reporting season of the year but still a bit off the S&P 500’s blistering pace.

We start the European session with the November Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro Area and October ISM non-manufacturing print in the US. The ECB's Guindos is due to speak while Euro Area finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels with Italy high on the agenda. EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is also due to deliver a Brexit speech in Brussels, while China President Xi Jingping is due to address the country's first International Import Expo. Monday also marks the day that US sanctions on Iranian oil flows go back into effect.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...-fizzles-trade-hopes-fade-rate-worries-return
 

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Key Events This Week: Politics, Europe, Inflation And The Fed


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/05/2018 - 08:51


Politics will be the primary focus for markets next week with the US midterm elections at the forefront. President Trump is also due to meet with France's Macron and Russia's Putin, while in Germany the CDU party retreat may provide an update on future leadership. We've also got a Fed meeting, global PMI data, US PPI, China trade and inflation data, and more corporate earnings scheduled.

As DB's Craig Nicol writes, "there's little doubt that the big event next week for markets is the US midterm elections on Tuesday." As Deutsche Bank previews, polls and betting markets indicate that the Democrats are likely to take control of the House, while the Republicans are likely to retain Senate control. The major issues for voters are healthcare, immigration, and trade policy. For markets, the key issues are whether to expect further fiscal stimulus, and what the implications are for trade policy. On the former, unified Republican control is likely more bullish, while on the latter, a divided government could de-escalate the current trade conflict.

A busy week for the President will also see him travel to Paris on Friday along with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, where they will meet French President Macron and Russian President Putin. Away from that it's worth noting that the German CDU party begins a retreat this weekend ahead of a convention in December to elect Merkel's successor. A news conference is scheduled following the completion of the retreat on Monday. Other potentially interesting political events next week include Chinese President Xi Jinping addressing China's first International Import Expo on Monday, Euro Area Finance Ministers meeting on Monday in Brussels with Michel Barnier also due to deliver a Brexit speech on the same day, Russian PM Medvedev meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday and EU Foreign Affairs Ministers meeting on Friday to discuss the WTO and trade in Brussels.

For the Fed on Thursday, no change in policy is expected and with this also being a meeting which doesn't include a press conference from Fed Chair Powell, it's hard to envisage there being much in the way of new information for the market, especially with recent data still supportive.

That being said the recent market selloff and subsequent impact on financial conditions is something which could perhaps be addressed. As a reminder, DB expects a 25bp hike at the December meeting.

As far as data releases are concerned, with it being a FOMC meeting week it's fairly quiet in the US however we will get the October PPI report on Friday which should be a focus. Prior to that we'll also get the final October services and composite PMIs on Monday along with the October ISM non-manufacturing print, JOLTS job openings for September on Tuesday, September consumer credit on Wednesday and the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.

In Europe the final October services and composite PMIs on Tuesday will be closely watched as will September industrial production prints for Germany and France on Wednesday and Friday respectively. In the UK the preliminary Q3 and September GDP prints on Friday should be the main focus.



Finally in Asia we've got the PMIs on Monday for Japan and China along with China trade data for October on Thursday and then the October CPI and PPI prints on Friday. In EM land it'll be worth keeping an eye on Turkey's latest CPI report on Monday which is expected to stay elevated at just below 25%.

Meanwhile it's a fairly quiet week for Fedspeak next week. The only scheduled speakers at present are those on Friday when Quarles, Williams and Harker are due to speak. Over at the ECB we're due to hear from Guindos on Monday, and Praet, Coeure and Lautenschlaeger on Tuesday.

The BoJ's Kuroda is also due to speak on Monday.

Last but by no means least, next week we've got 76 S&P 500 companies due to report as we edge closer to the end of earnings season. Some of the highlights include Walt Disney, Qualcomm and CVS Health. Some of the global earnings releases next week include SoftBank, Credit Agricole, Unicredit, BMW, Toyota and Petrobras.

Courtesy of DB, here is a summary of key events in the week ahead:
  • Monday: The final services and composite PMIs for October in Japan, China, UK and the US should be the main focus datawise on Monday. Away from that we'll also get the November Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro Area and October ISM non-manufacturing print in the US. The BoJ's Kuroda, and ECB's Guindos are also due to speak while Euro Area finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels. EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is also due to deliver a Brexit speech in Brussels, while China President Xi Jingping is due to address the country's first International Import Expo. Monday also marks the day that US sanctions on Iranian oil flows go back into effect.
  • Tuesday: The big focus on Tuesday will be the US midterm elections. Away from that, data releases include the final PMIs in Europe (services and composite readings), German factory orders for September, Euro Area PPI for September and JOLTS job openings in the US for September. The ECB's Praet, Coeure and Lautenschlaeger are all due to speak.
  • Wednesday: It's a quieter day for data Wednesday. In Japan we'll get September cash earnings, in China we'll get October foreign reserves, in Europe we'll get September industrial production in Germany and September retail sales for the Euro Area, while in the US we'll get September consumer credit. Away from that the BoJ's Funo is due to speak, while Russian PM Medvedev is due to meet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.
  • Thursday: The main focus on Thursday will be the Fed with the FOMC meeting. Away from that we're due to get October trade data in China, September trade data in Germany and France and the latest weekly initial jobless claims print in the US. The European Commission will also update its economic forecasts, while the ECB's Coeure is due to speak.
  • Friday: It's a busy end to the week for data on Friday. In China we get October CPI and PPI. In Europe we'll get September industrial production in France and the September and Q3 GDP prints in the UK. In the US the highlight is the October PPI reading, while the preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading and September wholesale inventories are also due. The Fed's Quarles is also due to speak along with the Fed's Williams and Harker, while President Trump travels to France to meet French President Macron and Russian President Putin. European Foreign Affairs Ministers will also meet to discuss the WTO and trade.
Finally focusing only on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic releases this week are the ISM non-manufacturing report on Monday and the PPI report on Friday. In addition, the November FOMC statement will be released on Thursday at 2:00 PM ET. New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles will speak on Friday

Monday, November 5
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, October final (last 54.8)
  • 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, October final (consensus 54.6, last 54.7)
  • 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, October (GS 58.6, consensus 59.1, last 61.6): Given softer service-sector surveys and stock market weakness, we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to decline by 3.0pt to 58.6 in the October report, after reaching a cycle-high in September. On net, our nonmanufacturing survey tracker – which is scaled to the ISM non-manufacturing index – fell by 2.7pt to 56.6.
Tuesday, November 6
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS Job Openings, September (consensus 7,125k, last 7,136k); The August JOLTS report showed that both job openings and the quits rate are at cycle highs.
Wednesday, November 7
  • There are no major data releases.
Thursday, November 8
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 3 (GS 205k, consensus 214k, last 214k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 27 (consensus 1,635k, last 1,631k); We estimate jobless claims declined by 9k to 205k in the week ended November 3, following a 2k decrease in the prior week. Claims still appear somewhat elevated in states affected by Hurricane Michael, and claims typically increase in the weeks following the week of the hurricane but subsequently decline.
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, November 7-8 meeting: As we discuss in our FOMC preview, we do not expect any change in the funds rate. In the post-meeting statement, we think the committee is likely to retain the upbeat tone of recent meetings, with small changes to the overall language. Despite recent financial conditions tightening due to recent stock price declines, we do not expect any changes to the language on financial developments, which the statement already lists as one of the factors the committee assesses in the policy outlook. The recent tightening of financial conditions has increased the risk that growth slows to a trend pace earlier than the end of 2019. We now therefore see the risks around our Fed call of five more hikes through the end of 2019 as symmetric. There is still a significant risk of a longer or steeper hiking cycle, but this is now balanced by a risk of a shorter cycle or an extended pause.
Friday, November 9
  • 08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate a 0.2% increase in headline PPI in October, reflecting relatively firmer core prices and higher energy prices as well. We expect a 0.2% increase in both core measures of PPI, reflecting a continuation of the average recent trend in producer prices.
  • 08:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver welcome remarks at the Investing in America’s Workforce Book Launch Event.
  • 09:00 AM Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will speak on stress testing at an event at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Moderated Q&A is expected.
  • 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, September final (consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (GS 99.0, consensus 97.9, last 98.6): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.4pt to 99.0, potentially reflecting a pre-election boost. Other indicators of consumer confidence, such as the Conference Board measure, also suggest an increase for the index from its October level. The report’s measure of 5- to 10-year inflation expectations stood at 2.4% in October.
Source: GS, ING, Deutsche Bank

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-05/key-events-week-politics-europe-inflation-and-fed
 

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Blockchain in the Marine Bunker Market
November 5, 2018 by Don Martin


VladSV / Shutterstock

What is Blockchain? What are Blockchain Bunkers? Why Blockchain Bunkers?
All good questions around the astonishing new technology transforming how business will be done across the marine industry.

So, What is Blockchain?
Blockchain is a network of users that collectively create a shared system of transparent transaction records or ledgers among the network users.
Each transaction is an exchange of value (good, service, money, data, etc.) that is encoded in a unique “block” of digital data. The users agree about the quality of the data and each user confirms that the data in any block is true and accurate. Each block of data (or component of the transaction) is connected to the block behind it and to the block next in front of it. Each block is uniquely coded and cannot change its identity and therefore the data in each block cannot change. Every set of data in each block is totally transparent to all the users, and as the blocks are chained together, other blocks cannot be inserted between blocks and the data altered. As the chain grows through the shared user system the need for individual ledgers that captures individual user data is no longer needed as all the information and data is captured in each block and the chain represents all the transactional history and each data component.

There are many benefits that Blockchain can bring to the marketplace such as reducing paperwork delay, eliminating fraud, reducing errors, improving issue identification, improving inventory management and, increasing partner confidence in the process and their confidence in you. As all the members in a blockchain, each share the same view of the data and all the transactions, mistakes, fraud, manipulation, deceit and deception are greatly reduced.

What are Blockchain Bunkers?
The use of Blockchain in the bunker market provides soup to nuts transparency in the entire bunker process. From terminal tank quality to the quality and quantity on the barge, to the delivery quality and quantity on the vessel. In addition to physical delivery and attendant data, the financial data is also captured and made transparent to all the many players in a bunker delivery.

The traditional bunker market depends on the Bunker Delivery Note (BDN) for documentation of the delivery and transaction. BDNs were/are the weakest point in the bunker delivery process as the potential for deliberate manipulation of quality and quantity is rife as is the risk for pure error because of an exhausted Chief Engineer and worn out tankerman exchanging the BDN between the rail of a ship to the deck of a barge in the middle of the night and pouring rain.

Why Blockchain Bunkers?
Bunker markets worldwide provide huge volumes of fuel and with those huge volumes – big money. And, where there is big money, there is deception and fraud. Bunker markets are no strangers to fraudulent claims and falsified BDNs. Blockchain drastically reduces the potential for fraud as it removes the ability for the bad actor to insert fraudulent or deceptive data at any point in the process.

In addition to its transparency, Blockchain increases the efficiency around paying for bunkers and getting paid for bunkers – as shippers go bankrupt, go out of business with no notice, underpay, make meritless challenges to quality and/or quality to delay payment or make underpayments. Shippers are often paid on delivery of freight, and will often take bunkers before sailing for the next port. Blockchain can capture the amount of freight payments and provide bunker suppliers confidence that the shipper and/or its agent has the money to pay for the delivered bunkers.

https://gcaptain.com/blockchain-in-the-marine-bunker-market/
 

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U.S. Snaps Back Iran Sanctions with Waivers to Top Oil Buyers
November 5, 2018 by Reuters


Photo: Igor Grochev / Shutterstock



By Humeyra Pamuk and Jane Chung WASHINGTON/SEOUL, Nov 5 (Reuters) – The United States snapped sanctions back in place on Monday to choke off Iran’s oil and shipping industry, while temporarily allowing top customers such as China and India to keep buying crude from the Islamic Republic.

Having abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to cripple Iran’s oil-dependent economy and force Tehran to quash not only its nuclear ambitions and its ballistic missile program but its support for militant proxies in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East.

Washington has pledged to completely stop purchases of crude oil from Iran eventually, but for now it said eight countries – China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan and Turkey – can continue imports for now without penalty. Crude exports contribute one-third of Iran’s government revenues.

“More than 20 importing nations have zeroed out their imports of crude oil already, taking more than 1 million barrels crude per day off the market,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters in a briefing. “The regime to date since May has lost over $2.5 billions in oil revenue.”

“We have decided to issue temporary allotments to a handful countries responsive to the specific circumstances and to ensure a well supplied oil market,” Pompeo said. “Each of those countries have already demonstrated significant reduction of the purchase of Iranian crude over the past six months.”

The exemptions are designed to last up to 180 days.

U.S. officials have said the countries given temporary exemptions from the sanctions will deposit Iran’s revenue in escrow accounts and Tehran will be able to use the funds for humanitarian purposes.

Iran’s exports peaked at 2.8 million barrels per day in April, including 300,000 barrels per day of condensate, a lighter form of oil that when underground tends to exists as gas. Overall exports have fallen to 1.8 million bpd since then, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which expects volumes to drop further to 1 million bpd.

Oil prices rallied above $85 per barrel in October on fears of a steep decline in Iranian exports. Prices have fallen off since then on expectations that some buyers would receive exemptions and as supply from the world’s largest producers has increased.

On Monday, international benchmark Brent crude was up by more than $1 to a session high of $73.92 a barrel. U.S. crude futures were up about 1 percent at $63.85 a barrel.

The sanctions cover 50 Iranian banks and subsidiaries, more than 200 people and vessels in its shipping sector, and targets Tehran’s national airline, Iran Air, and more than 65 of its aircraft, a U.S. Treasury statement said.

Iran’s biggest oil buyers in recent years have been China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Japan.

Casting the U.S. sanctions as “economic war,” Tehran vowed to defy them while Iranian clerical rulers have dismissed concerns about the impact on the economy.

“It will be difficult for Iran to maximize exports when virtually all trade in oil is cleared in U.S. dollars, putting international oil companies, many national oil companies, traders and banks off limits,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

(Reporting By Jane Chung in SEOUL, Kaori Kaneko and Osamu Tsukimori in TOKYO, and Ben Blanchard in BEIJING; Additional Reporting by Nidhi Verma in NEW DELHI and Lesley Wroughton in WASHINGTON; Writing by Humeyra Pamuk and Henning Gloystein and Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by David Gaffen and Bill Trott)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

https://gcaptain.com/u-s-snaps-back-iran-sanctions-with-waivers-to-top-oil-buyers/
 

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TVR [#553] 11-05-2018 OPTIONS TRADING LIVE TRAINING SESSION
ALGO CAPITALIST


Published on Nov 5, 2018
Please remember to RATE, SHARE, FAVORITE, COMMENT AND SUBSCRIBE.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 5 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 5, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 5 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 5, 2018
 

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Stocks are Running Out of Reasons to Rise
Silver Fortune


Published on Nov 5, 2018
Tailwinds are turning into headwinds, and the market may have already topped out for the year, and the cycle.

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. Silver Bar at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

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Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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Our True Enemies are at the Marriner Eccles Building and at 33 Liberty Street.
maneco64


Published on Nov 5, 2018
In this report, I talk about how we need to ignore the establishment strategy of divide and conquer and focus on our fraudulent and corrupt Central Banking fiat money system.
 

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Here Come The Political Fireworks: Traders Hunker Down Ahead Of "Shock" Outcome


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/06/2018 - 07:01

Ahead of the most important day for US politics in years, global markets have hunkered down, coiling in anticipation or dipping cautiously into the red, as traders braced for midterm elections in the United States while anticipating a "shock outcome" with 2016 still fresh in everyone's head.



European markets turned lower alongside American futures while Asian shares were fractionally in the green. The pound fluctuated amid Brexit hopes and despair, while Treasury yields dipped and the dollar rose.

Asian trading started off well thanks to the momentum from Monday's strong US session (excluding Apple) with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rising 0.4%. Japan and Hong Kong helped Asia overcome another Chinese wobble, where the Shanghai initially slumped but managed to recover most losses, although Europe slipped into the red early on as investors punished several corporate earnings misses and pre-U.S. midterms nerves took hold.



Apple suppliers such as Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry were hit by a report that Apple had told its smartphone assemblers to halt plans for additional production lines dedicated to the iPhone XR. The report had also driven Apple shares 2.8% lower in U.S. trade.

Europe's Stoxx Europe 600 lost traction after a positive start and technology, retail and automakers were among the sectors dragging the index lower. That said, nobody was making any big statements and volumes were more than a third below the 30-day average. “European stock markets are a little in the red as political uncertainty hangs over investor sentiment,” CMC Market analyst David Madden wrote pointing to tensions between Italy and the EU over the country’s budget, China-U.S. trade spat.

S&P futures were rangebound, drifting in a 15 point range from session highs shortly before the European open to session lows as US traders walked in.



For once traders will forget interest rates, earnings and trade war, and will focus entirely on the looming US midterm elections which are seen as the first major referendum on the policies of President Donald Trump, including his sweeping tax cuts and hostile trade policies. Polls point to his Republican party losing control of the House of Representatives which could curb some of his policymaking power. The GOP is expected to retain control of the Senate. Meanwhile, investors have one eye on the U.K., where Theresa May is redoubling efforts to reach a Brexit deal.

For today's session, it will be all about polling and the results to come over the next 24 hours, so be on the look out for headline risks as exit poll results start to trickle in later in the day. Polls over in the East Coast are now open and that will be followed by the rest of the states in the coming hours.

Having been burned by the outcome of the 2016 presidential election, traders are especially wary: "It is definitely not the time to buy the dip,” said London & Capital’s CIO Pau Morilla-Giner. "Everything that could go well for U.S. consumers in the last couple of years has gone well, but now the tide is turning... At the moment you are running out of drivers of growth in the U.S."

But while volumes were muted, nerves were distinctly absent from market indicators: the Cboe Skew index - also known as the “black swan” index - hovered near its 2.5 year low hit on Friday, indicating demand for OTM options remains tepid.

“Unlike the U.S. Presidential election or the U.K.’s Brexit referendum, the upcoming U.S. (midterm) elections are not a binary event,” said Yasuo Sakuma, chief investment officer at Libra Investments. “So it’s unlikely to send stocks significantly in one direction, apart from initial quick reactions.”

Back to markets, Italian and Spanish stocks weakened as updated PMI figures confirmed euro zone business growth fell to a two-year low last month due to rising trade tensions. The future output index caused even more concern as it fell to a near four-year low of 60.5 from 62.1.

“Euro zone companies reported a disappointing start to the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit which compiles the data.

Most European government bonds were mixed and range-bound, with Bunds grinding higher, eventually breaching yesterday’s best levels to test 160. In Italy, BTPs reversed early gains after eurozone finance ministers called on Rome to change its budget at a meeting on Monday. The Bund/BTP sprad widened 8bp as Italian officials hold their ground but signal an willingness for "constructive dialogue."

Political risks also dominated the currency market, with the Bloomberg dollar index confined to 1 point of 1,200 while the pound erased gains before another key Brexit meeting for Theresa May’s administration. The euro hovered around the $1.14 handle as German macro data lent support. Treasuries were little changed in rather thin trading volumes before a 10-year note auction.

The Aussie led gains among G-10 peers in delayed response to RBA’s painting of a slightly more upbeat picture of the economy in the statement accompanying its decision to leave rates unchanged Tuesday. The yen was little changed after earlier falling to its weakest level in a month as advancing Japanese stocks damped demand for haven assets. Emerging-market currencies consolidated.

Gold was little changed but in oil markets crude prices were near multi-month lows after the United States allowed eight countries to continue buying oil from Iran temporarily, easing the likelihood of a sharp supply drop. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.3% to $62.89 a barrel, after hitting a seven-month low of $62.52 on Monday.

Elsewhere, a flurry of earnings are expected, including from Lilly and Ralph Lauren.

US Event Calendar
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,735.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 363.10
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 152.88
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 487.96
  • Nikkei up 1.1% to 22,147.75
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,659.35
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 26,120.96
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,659.36
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 35,025.03
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,875.18
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,089.62
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.424%
  • Euro up 0.07% to $1.1415
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $72.93/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 2.956%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 1.578%
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,234.90
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 96.29
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • U.K. Cabinet ministers expect to be locked in a room to study the latest options for a Brexit deal in strict secrecy on Tuesday as Theresa May redoubles efforts to get a deal this month, according to people familiar with the matter
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel took aim at populist rhetoric that portrays the media as enemies, saying it’s unacceptable to attack critical journalism in a democracy
  • China’s vice president said Beijing remained ready to discuss a trade solution with the U.S., and urged changes in global governance to address a surge in populism and rapid technological advances
  • President Donald Trump said he is “probably not” meeting Vladimir Putin in Paris this weekend but does expect to meet the Russian president at a summit in Argentina at the end of November
  • U.S. gave a stark warning to companies around the world: Evading sanctions on Iran will hurt
  • German factory orders unexpectedly rose for a second month in September in a sign that Europe’s largest economy is poised to regain growth momentum toward the end of the year; orders gained 0.3% from the previous month, compared with economists’ predictions for a 0.5% decline
  • Italy signaled it’s not ready to budge on its controversial budget even as euro-area finance ministers called on it to prepare revised spending plans that comply with the bloc’s rules, in a sign that the standoff between Brussels and Rome is set to escalate in the coming weeks
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co. has been piling into Treasuries on expectations that the U.S. yield curve will flatten as the economy gradually slows. It has done so by selling bonds in euro-zone nations, with the exception of Spain
Asian equity markets were mixed as weakness in China clouded over the mostly positive lead from US where the DJIA and S&P 500 closed higher with the latter led by strength in energy names, although the Nasdaq declined amid continued Apple woes after reports the tech giant cancelled a production boost for the budget iPhone XR due to slowing demand. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) traded higher with Australia led also by the energy sector leading as it mirrored the outperformance seen stateside, while the Japanese benchmark benefitted from recent currency weakness and rose back above the 22000 level. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were subdued amid ongoing trade uncertainty and after the PBoC skipped open market operations again, while notable weakness was seen in casino stocks which pulled back from recent gains. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre after weakness seen in T-notes and with demand subdued by the strength in Japanese stocks.

Top Asian News
  • PBOC Adviser: Capital Outflow Pressure Smaller Than 2 Years Ago
  • Goldman Names Binnion, Wang as Asia ex-Japan ECM Co-heads: Memo
  • Camera Maker Mulls Taking a Note From Taylor Swift on Trade War
  • Malaysia Probes More Deals by Ex-Goldman Partner Leissner
Major European indices are mostly in the red (Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%) with underperformance in Spain’s IBEX as the index is dragged lower by heavyweight financial and telecom names. Meanwhile the SMI (Unch) outperforms with the index lifted by Adecco (+3.7%) post-earnings. In terms of sectors, industrials are benefitting from the lower base metal prices, while telecom names lag. Moving onto individual equities, Zalando (-6.0%) is the worst performing stock following their earnings, with Morrisons (-5.0%) also lower on the back of their number. IWG (+7.0%) are out in front following optimistic earnings and conformation of their guidance, while FTSE heavyweight Associated British Food (+2.5%) in the green after the company said they expect an increase in retail profit after reporting their earnings.

Top European News
  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise as Domestic Demand Gains
  • Rosneft Uses Record Cash Flow to Pay Off Debt in Volatile Market
  • Tria Says Italy Still Has Disagreements With the Commission
  • Brexit Endgame Lifts Pound’s Volatility as Euro Stays Subdued
  • France Flexible on Date of Digital Tax Implementation: Le Maire
In FX, it is a different day, but familiar feel or trend in G10 land, as Sterling rivals the Antipodean Dollars for major honours. Cable continues ride high on a wave of Brexit deal optimism amidst more reports of an EU offer on the Irish border, and the latest proposal under the guise of an ‘Independent Mechanism’ that would allow the UK options to terminate the temporary customs arrangement. Cable has extended gains to test and briefly eclipse resistance around 1.3080, while Eur/Gbp has slipped further below 0.8750 to just a handful of pips from reported stops at 0.8720 and Gbp/Jpy breached its 200 DMA and 148.00 before losing some momentum. Meanwhile, the Aud has been boosted by relatively upbeat RBA commentary overnight following its monetary policy meeting with 2018 and 2019 growth seen stronger than previously and a tighter labour market expected to lift wages. Hence, Aud/Usd appears firmer above the 0.7200 handle that has been tough to overcome, and eyeing 0.7250 next, while Aud/Nzd has bounced from near 1.0800 to touch 1.0850, as Nzd/Usd remains capped ahead of 0.6700.

EUR/CHF/JPY/CAD - All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, which is trading cautiously ahead of today’s US mid-term elections, with the DXY hovering just above 96.200, as the single currency runs into offers around 1.1425 and ongoing Italian-EU budget issues that are preventing a more concerted attempt on technical resistance around 1.1456-60. Meanwhile, the traditional currency safe-havens, Chf and Jpy remain rangebound between 1.0055-35 and 113.20-45 with the latter looking at a key Fib (circa 113.34) on a closing basis for technical direction. Elsewhere, the Loonie has lost some of its BoC impetus as oil prices sag again, but could derive more independent pointers from Canadian building permits later. Usd/Cad now back above 1.3100 and climbing.

EM - Some loss of momentum after Monday’s broad outperformance vs the Usd, but the Try did derive more support earlier to trade within a whisker of 5.3000 on hawkish rhetoric from the CBRT that sounded confident about hitting its inflation target via tight monetary policy, even though Turkish CPI accelerated further above in October.

In commodities, WTI (-0.4%) and Brent (-0.5%) are both lower as details of the US waivers on Iranian oil emerge. So far, China is allowed to buy around 360K BPD of Iranian oil for 180 days, with source reports noting that conditions require the disclosures of counter-parties and settlement methods. Elsewhere, India is allowed to purchase of up 300k BPD of oil, while South Korea was granted a 200k BPD oil waiver.

Additionally, comments from US President Trump that he wants to impose the sanctions gradually to prevent shocks to the market, may have contributed to the price decrease. Traders will be eyeing the weekly API crude inventories released later today as a fresh catalyst for prices.

Gold (+0.2%) has been gradually rising throughout the session as the yellow metal detaches itself from USD influence to act as a safe haven, meanwhile copper is lower and moving in tandem to the risk tone. Separately, aluminium associations from the US, Canada and Mexico have urged their governments to agree a deal which eliminates US aluminium tariffs from Canada and Mexico without the imposition of import quotas.

US Event Calendar
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7,085, prior 7,136
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The main focus today will of course centre on the US midterm elections. According to the betting website predictit.org, the base case of the Democrats taking the House but the Republicans retaining the Senate is around 60% likely. The odds that the Republicans hold both chambers is around 30%, and the odds that the Democrats take both chambers is around 10%. We should know tonight, with the first polls closing at 6pm EST/11pm GMT, though the first major bellwether states to close will be Virginia and Florida at 7pm EST/midnight GMT. The former has some marginal House races in the outskirts of Washington, DC, while the latter has a close Senate race. As the night progresses, we could know the final results by 10pm EST/3am GMT when the last marginal Senate races finish and enough House races are in the books that we should have a firm idea.

If things are still close, it could come down to California and its seven competitive House races, which could, in a worst-case scenario, take days or weeks to finalize as mail-in ballots are counted.

Ahead of the US going to the polls, the most impressive part of the last 24 hours was how well the S&P 500 held up given the renewed weakness in tech. Whilst the S&P closed +0.56%, the NYSE FANG index was down -1.35 % (but off intraday lows of -2.77%). The NASDAQ also fell -0.38% with Apple at that forefront following a drop of -2.84% (-9.28% over 2 days and -13.13% from peak on October 3) after Japan’s Nikkei media outlet reported that the tech behemoth had told assemblers to halt new production capacity of the new iPhone XR until there is more assurance on demand. That move for the NASDAQ was the first move of less than +/-1% since October 23rd (eight business days) and breaks the longest such stretch since December 2008. That came after the STOXX 600 had closed -0.16% in Europe following an intraday range of just 0.53% which was the smallest since the end of September.

This morning in Asia, markets are largely flat to down with the exception of Japan. The Shanghai Comp (-1.05%) and Hang Seng (-0.23%) are lower while the Kospi (+0.02%) is flat and the Nikkei (+1.14%) is up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (-0.05%) are flat. In overnight news, the US and China are set to hold diplomatic and security talks in Washington this coming Friday, ahead of the upcoming meeting between their respective presidents on the side lines of the G20 meeting. Elsewhere, the PBoC’s adviser Jun Ma has said that the Chinese yuan hitting the key psychological level of 7 or not “isn’t that crucial” while adding that the capital outflow pressure in China is smaller compared to two years ago. As a reminder DB expect 7.40 next year.

Bond markets were similarly unexciting yesterday. 10y Treasuries ended the session -1.3bps lower at 3.199% and Bunds -0.1bps lower at 0.426%. BTPs ended more or less flat but did pare an early move higher in yield of around +7bps with the rally supported by a downplaying of a Politico report by the EU Commission about the Commission proposing financial sanctions on Italy as soon as November 21st. Finance Minister Tria was quoted as saying in yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting of the Euro-area Finance Ministers that Italy remains committed to reducing its debt ratio and hopes to reach a compromise with the EC while adding that Italy is currently not in the process of changing its budget, but that it was still committed to pursuing a dialogue with the EC.

Meanwhile the data in the US was actually a marginal positive with the ISM non-manufacturing coming in ahead of expectations at 60.3 (vs. 59.0 expected) – albeit down -1.3pts from September’s record reading but still the second-highest since 2005. New orders held relatively steady at 61.5 although employment did nudge down to 59.7 from 62.4 the month prior. That is however more or less in line with the three-month average. The prices subcomponent actually fell nearly 10pts to 61.7 but still remains at elevated levels. The associated text did however, highlight that “tariffs are beginning to impact business” and that construction firms in particular had asked suppliers to hold pricing for six months. Shortly before this the final services PMI in the US was revised up +0.2pts to 54.8.

Staying with the US, it was interesting to see the chart in our US economists’ “Fed Watcher” note yesterday which suggested that wages (in this case total private average hourly earnings) started accelerating as unemployment approached and breached 4% earlier this year. A tipping point of sorts and this fits in with the trend observed in the 1960s when wages also accelerated when the unemployment rate dropped below 4%. This 1960s comparison was something DB research has highlighted in numerous publications over the last year or so.

In other news, where there were no shortage of headlines yesterday was here in the UK with Brexit newsflow once again peaking in the morning after the weekend noise. Reuters broke with the news quoting ITV political editor Robert Peston as saying that the UK government had settled on a no deal Brexit outcome as the most probable in the event of no deal within the next week. As DB’s Oliver Harvey noted, a December agreement is still possible as is an option of extending the Article 50 timeframe (granted by a short duration) so it’s worth taking this headline with a pinch of salt. Further headlines on Brexit included the Sun as saying that no deal is likely this week and that dates for a possible EU summit had been pushed to the 27th and 28th of November – making a parliamentary vote in the first week of December more likely. There were also reports that Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab might resign but this was later downplayed. Meanwhile, late yesterday night, The Times reported that the EU is preparing to offer the UK PM May an independent mechanism by which Britain could end a temporary customs arrangement with the EU. If true, this could help overcome the key sticking point in Brexit talks. However The Times has been a source of numerous headlines of late and it’s not clear that they all have substance. Sterling closed up +0.56 at $1.304 last night and traded at $1.305 this morning. There is a UK cabinet meeting today to discuss Brexit but it doesn’t feel we’re quite ready yet for a breakthrough. Nevertheless it looks like we are inching towards a deal and then the UK parliamentary fun and games will begin.

On the data front, the UK’s services and composite PMIs both softened, following last week’s drop in the manufacturing PMI. The services metric printed at 52.2 versus expectations for 53.3 and down from 53.9 in September, while the composite index came in at 52.1 versus expected 53.4 and down from 54.1. The composite index is now at its lowest level since the Brexit referendum. Separately, Turkish CPI printed at 25.2% yoy, its highest level since 2003, though the monthon- month figure softened to 2.67% from 6.30% in September. The Turkish lira rallied +2.22% to 5.314, its strongest level since early August.

The US’s sanctions on Iran took effect today, though they issued waivers to eight countries (China, India, Italy, South Korea, Turkey, Taiwan, Greece, and Japan) which will allow them to continue importing Iranian crude oil. The waivers will cover around 1.3 million barrels per day, which would equate to small additional cuts from current export levels and would be consistent with the 2012-2015 experience. There was no indication of how long the waivers would remain in effect, and Brent crude oil traded somewhat listlessly to close -0.11%.

As far as the day ahead is concerned, needless to say the US midterms will dominate. Before that, this morning in Europe the early data release is September factory orders numbers out of Germany. Shortly after that the focus turns to the remaining October services and composite PMIs. No change in the composite reading of 52.7 for the Euro Area is expected. Later this morning we’ll get September PPI for the Euro Area before we get the September JOLTS job openings data in the US. Away from that we’re due to hear from the ECB’s Praet, Coeure and Lautenschlaeger at various stages this morning.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/traders-hunker-down-ahead-us-political-fireworks