• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Business News & Views - Metals, Markets, Shipping, Energy, More

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Foxconn May Bring Chinese Workers To Its New Wisconsin Facility


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/06/2018 - 07:57


Back in the summer of 2017, to much fanfare President Donald Trump announced that Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn, best known for making the iPhone, would build a new plant producing LCD panels in Wisconsin that will bring thousands of jobs to the state.

On the surface it was great deal: in what's being called the "largest economic development project in state history", Foxconn said it would build a $10 billion plant that will eventually employ as many as 13,000 people, according to the White House and Gov. Scott Walker. To be sure, it was a quid pro quo: to help lure the manufacturer, the state pledged $3 billion in tax and other “performance-based” incentives and local authorities added $764 million. Foxconn must meet hiring, wage and investment targets by various dates to receive most of those benefits.

And while many - including this site - accused the project of being a giant taxpayer-funded boondoggle, calculating that every job created would cost some $230,000 in incentives, a little over a year later and even more disturbing "glitch" in the plan has emerged: according to the WSJ, instead of hiring local talent, Foxconn is considering bringing in personnel from China "to help staff the large facility under construction in southern Wisconsin as it struggles to find engineers and other workers in one of the tightest labor markets in the U.S."

According to the report, the company has been quietly trying to tap Chinese engineers through internal transfers to supplement staffing for the Wisconsin plant.

And while Foxconn did promise that it would invest $10 billion to build a 22-million-square-foot liquid-crystal display panel plant, hiring 13,000 employees - primarily factory workers along with some engineers and business support positions - it apparently never specified if the workers hired would be American... or Chinese.

Responding to WSJ questions about its hiring plans, the company said its “Wisconsin first commitment remains unchanged,” adding that it still plans to ultimately hire 13,000, and the majority "will work on high-value production and engineering assignments and in the research and development field."

And while "ultimately" Foxconn intends to hire Americans, it appears to be resorting to Chinese workers in the interim.

Why? It appears that the key hurdle is the tight labor market which is making recruiting a challenge. Unemployment in the state reached a record low earlier this year. At 3.0% in September, Wisconsin’s jobless rate is well below the national average, which hit 3.7% that month—itself a 49-year low.

“It’s very difficult to find skilled labor in our market,” said Loretta Olson, who owns an Express Employment Professionals staffing office in Racine, Wis., near the planned plant. She also serves on the board of the Racine County Economic Development Corp., which worked to attract Foxconn to the area.​
In response, area employers are improving benefits and offering more perks to avoid having Foxconn poach their workers, Olson said. She said Foxconn is actively engaged with high schools and local colleges to produce the workers it will need at the plant when it is completed.
"All the technical schools and local universities are gearing up their programs, but I still think Foxconn is going to fall short in terms of finding the people they need,” she said. “They’re going to have to recruit from outside the area.”

And "outside the area" apparently also means China: Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou is looking to company engineers in China to transfer, according to people familiar with the matter.

Here the company has run into yet another hurdle, as some Chinese engineers have expressed reluctance to relocate to Wisconsin, which is less well-known to Chinese workers than U.S. tech hubs in California or New York.

One engineer who declined to give his name said he wouldn’t want to move to a place he worried could be as cold as Harbin, a northern Chinese city known as “Ice City.”​
As a result, Chairman Gou is upset that few Chinese workers have volunteered to move to Wisconsin if called upon, the WSJ sources said.
The bizarre twist is hardly good news for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, who is in a tight race for re-election, and has been accused by his Democratic challenger, Tony Evers, of making a bad deal with Foxconn. Evers and other state Democrats have said the incentive package given to Foxconn was too large and have highlighted concerns over the company’s changing plans.

In June, Trump, Gou and Walker celebrated Foxconn’s planned investment at a groundbreaking in Mount Pleasant in June. President Trump thanked Mr. Gou for investing in the U.S. and said the plant, about 25 miles south of Milwaukee, “will provide jobs for much more than 13,000 Wisconsin workers.”

While Foxconn may ultimately hit its hiring target, it now appears that a substantial portion of those "Wisconsin workers" will come from China. Which means that despite the spin and posturing, the end results is that US taxpayers will have given Foxconn millions in tax incentives so the company can build a plant in Wisconsin where it hires... Chinese workers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ng-chinese-workers-its-new-wisconsin-facility
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
NAMED: The 51 'underperforming' Lowe's stores that will close across the US and Canada by February 2019

  • Lowe's announced Monday it would close 20 stores in the US and 31 in Canada
  • Some states and provinces will see the closure of multiple stores
  • Select stores would close immediately and others will shutter by February 2019
  • Lowe's will also close or consolidate four 'non-store facilities,' too
  • The move is part of the company's 'ongoing strategic reassessment'
  • Lowe's is trying to compete with long-time section leader Home Depot
  • Lowe's currently operates about 1,800 US stores and 300 in Canada
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...hut-51-underperforming-stores-U-S-Canada.html
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 6 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 6, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 6 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 6, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Sunken Sanchi Tanker Among Ships Hit by Iran Sanctions
November 6, 2018 by Bloomberg

Rescue ships work to extinguish the fire on the Panama-registered Sanchi tanker carrying Iranian oil, which went ablaze after a collision with a Chinese freight ship in the East China Sea, in this January 10, 2018. China Daily via REUTERS

By Nick Wadhams and Javier Blas (Bloomberg) — Among the hundreds of Iranian-linked banks, companies and vessels that the U.S. slapped sanctions against on Monday was an Iranian crude oil tanker called the Sanchi. There’s one problem: The ship sank after a collision and fiery explosion in January.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions list distributed Monday leaves no doubt about the identity of the vessel targeted with sanctions. It’s the Sanchi, otherwise known as the Gardenia, the Seahorse and the Sepid, that’s flown under flags including those of Tanzania, Malta and Tuvalu. Its International Maritime Organization number is 9356608, and it’s linked to the National Iranian Tanker Company.

Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows that’s the same ship that sank in the East China Sea — with all 32 people aboard — after colliding with another vessel on Jan. 6. The tanker was laden with more than 1 million barrels of light crude oil and burned for several days, creating a large oil spill, before an explosion destroyed what was left of it and sent the vessel to the bottom of the sea.

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P

https://gcaptain.com/sunken-sanchi-tanker-among-ships-hit-by-iran-sanctions/
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Iran Oil Waivers: How Buyers Are Lining Up After U.S. Exemptions
November 6, 2018 by Bloomberg

Anatoly Menzhiliy / Shutterstock

By Heesu Lee and Debjit Chakraborty (Bloomberg) — Armed with waivers to keep importing Iranian oil without running afoul of U.S. sanctions, some of the Islamic Republic’s top customers are preparing to buy.

The exemptions mean at least some supplies from OPEC’s third-biggest producer will keep flowing into international markets, after Iran’s exports plunged by almost 40 percent since April — the month before Washington announced the curbs.

Almost all major buyers of Iran’s oil had negotiated with the U.S. for the waivers, arguing that cutting purchases to zero would affect their energy industries and boost fuel costs. U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has defended the exemptions and said the Trump administration’s campaign to pressure Iran has already reduced exports by over 1 million barrels a day and they’ll continue to shrink.

A summary of plans by some of Iran’s biggest oil customers and what they may buy under the waivers is set out below. This story will be updated as new information becomes available. The exemptions have been granted for 180 days, and will be reviewed toward the end of the period.

South Korea
Waiver: Up to 200,000 barrels a day of condensate Purchases before sanctions: 300,000 barrels a day (condensate) in 2017
While the Asian country was the third-biggest importer of Iranian oil, it was the first major buyer to cut purchases to zero as the U.S. prepared to impose sanctions. It’s now allowed to buy as much as 200,000 barrels a day, though actual imports may not be that high.

Purchases must be limited to cargoes of condensate, a type of ultra-light oil that’s critical for South Korea because many of the nation’s plants are geared to process it. The country bought about 300,000 barrels a day of South Pars condensate from Iran in 2017.

The government is said to be in discussion with companies to decide how to split the import volume. They’ll maintain a won-based payment system with Iran, making deposits into local escrow accounts in Industrial Bank of Korea and Woori Bank. The money won’t directly go to Iran, which can only use it to buy food, medicine or other non-sanctioned goods from its customers.

India
Waiver: Up to 300,000 b/d Purchases before sanctions: 560,000 b/d in Jan.-Oct. 2018
The South Asian nation was one of the most vocal negotiators for an exemption from the U.S., as the government faced protests over rising fuel costs before national elections next year.Under the exemptions, it will be allowed to import as much as 300,000 barrels a day. That’s under Iran’s average daily exports to the nation of about 560,000 barrels this year, and almost 450,000 barrels in 2017, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Indian refiners are expected to buy about 9 million barrels of oil for loading in November from Iran. They too will make payments into a local escrow account for the crude supply.

China
Waiver: 360,000 b/d Purchases before sanctions: 658,000 b/d in Jan.-Sept. 2018
The biggest buyer of Iran’s crude is allowed to import 360,000 barrels a day under the exemptions, according to people with knowledge of the matter. That doesn’t include oil produced by projects in the Islamic Republic in which Chinese companies have equity.

While China had bought about 658,000 barrels a day over the first nine months of this year, the government was said to have told at least two state oil companies to avoid purchasing the producer’s oil before the sanctions went into effect. That decision preceded an upcoming meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump and coincided with flaring trade tensions between the countries. Chinese ship owners had also stopped hauling Iranian oil.

Japan
Waiver: TBC Purchases before sanctions: About 160,000 b/d in Jan.-Sept. 2018
The nation’s refiners are likely to restart imports of Iranian oil now that it’s one of the eight recipients of exemptions, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko told reporters on Tuesday.

JXTG Holdings Inc., the country’s biggest refiner, echoed that view, saying it may resume purchases from the Persian Gulf state. However, the company didn’t elaborate on how much it could buy. Japanese processors halted purchases of Iranian crude in October under U.S. pressure.
Japan cut shipments in order to get the waiver, Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday.

Taiwan
Waiver: TBC Purchases before sanctions: About 16,000 b/d in Jan.-Aug. 2018
The chairman of Formosa Petrochemical Corp., Taiwan’s only publicly traded oil refiner, didn’t seem in too much of a rush to buy Iranian oil even though the island got a waiver.

“We don’t dare to sign any more contracts to buy Iranian crude oil after President Trump’s threat,” Chen Bao-lang said on Tuesday. “But it’s not an issue for us, whether Taiwan got an exemption or not. It’s very easy to find alternatives.”

Taiwan has been weaning itself off the Islamic Republic’s crude for the past 10 years. In 2003, Iran’s share of imports peaked at around 18 percent. So far this year, the Persian Gulf state made up just under 2 percent.

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P

https://gcaptain.com/iran-oil-waivers-how-buyers-are-lining-up-after-u-s-exemptions/
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
LNG Shipping Rates Hit All-Time High Ahead of Winter Traffic
November 6, 2018 by Reuters

Photo: Igor Grochev / Shutterstock



LONDON, Nov 6

(Reuters) – The cost of shipping liquefied natural gas (LNG) has hit $200,000 a day, exceeding a 2012 peak of $180,000 a day

The headline average is $170,000 for Asia Pacific, according to analysts at Jefferies, up around 20 percent from two weeks ago.

The headline average for the Atlantic Basin remains around $140,000 a day.

This compares to an average of around $80,000 to $85,000 a day in both basins at the end of last year, at the height of winter, according to the IGU.

LNG shipping rates tend to go up during the Northern Hemisphere winter and summer when gas is used for heating or cooling.

But rates have also jumped due to supply from new plants, longer distances travelled and anticipation of higher prices prompting shippers to lock in longer-duration contracts.

A recovery in the shipping rates from about three years of depressed levels has begun to boost earnings of LNG shipping companies such as Gaslog, Golar and Hoegh .

(Reporting by Sabina Zawadzki; Editing by Adrian Croft)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

https://gcaptain.com/lng-shipping-rates-hit-all-time-high-ahead-of-winter-traffic/
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
The Morning After: S&P Futures Surge On Gridlock, Dollar Slides


by Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/07/2018 - 07:00


So much for the consensus midterm election outcome being priced in: one look at global markets this morning shows a sea of green, and confirms that markets clearly like gridlock more than many had expected.



After what was initially a muted reaction from financial investors in the United States and globally, European stock markets turned higher ignoring a mixed Asian Session with S&P futures following, gaining as much as 1% percent.



A quick look at global markets saw Asian equities mixed, Europe solidly in the green, while in FX, the Indonesian rupiah, which soared the most since June 2016, led gains as the dollar weakened for the third day. South Africa’s rand jumped to the strongest in three months. Egyptian shares rose 1.5% and Turkish stocks gained 1.1%.

US politicians will now be looking to the 2020 elections, so "Republicans should now push the Trump Administration to pursue more cautious economic policies, particularly with respect to trade," said Jan Dehn, the head of research at Ashmore Group. With Democrats keen on constraining Trump, there may be a moderation in policies, he added. And finally, “the likelihood of very large stimulus measures has now declined,” Dehn said. “All in all, these factors will weigh on the dollar and support EM currencies.”

Recapping last night's results, Democrats regained a majority in the House of Representatives while Republicans not only clinched control of the Senate but also gained 3 extra seats. And while the results will hamper Trump’s business-friendly agenda and could lead to uncertainty about his administration at a time when investors are already worried that a decade-old bull market may be ending, dimming chances for any major fiscal initiative from the administration that might have pushed yields higher and strengthened the greenback, so far stocks are enjoying a relief rally that the outcome wasn't worse.

Indeed, the results for the GOP were no worse than investors had feared and point to a protracted political gridlock that had largely been expected by investors. That left investors free to buy back into a market that had its worst month in seven years in October.

"Given what futures are pointing to right now, I think it’s probably a sign that on balance Republicans have marginally outperformed," said UBS global wealth management CIO Geoffrey Yu. "The big question from here is do we add risk. Given how weak markets were in October, there is a slightly stronger case for us to outperform in the short-term."

As Reuters notes this morning, gridlock in Washington will all but eliminate the potential for more tax cuts, which Trump has called for and which many on Wall Street would like. The sweeping corporate tax cuts passed by the Republicans last year have supercharged earnings growth. It also means a lower debt deficit on net, lower yields and a lower dollar. And indeed, the greenback tumbled overnight even as risk assets jumped, with the Bloomberg dollar index sliding to a two weeks low after peaking at the start of the month. The BBDXY fell as much as 0.6% following the results of U.S. midterm elections, with the move gaining traction after the London open as short-term names added fresh shorts; the 10-year Treasury yield fell almost 5bps below 3.18%.



The euro rose a third day to set a fresh two-week high against the dollar in early London hours, supported by data showing that German industrial output picked up steam in September, supporting the view that a third-quarter stagnation will prove temporary. Sterling advanced as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing to ask the Cabinet to approve a draft Brexit deal potentially within days; option traders are less bearish on the pound, especially in the front end

The Democrats’ victory in the House could also benefit the market, some investors suggested, by tempering Trump’s aims such as on international trade. Indeed, the Democrats’ ability to prevent Trump from passing new laws may push him to focus more on resolving U.S. disputes with China, although that wasn't obvious to Chinese stocks, with the Shanghai Composite one of the few indexes closing in the red, and near session lows overnight.



Some investors were hopeful that Republicans and Democrats could agree on spending to improve infrastructure, which could boost many companies’ profits and drive more economic expansion.

In any case, investors will be happy just to move on from the elections: "It’s one less thing that’s in front of you that you have to worry about,” said Greenwood Capital CIO Walter Todd.

And with the elections now in the rearview mirror, the biggest macro themes remain the Fed's ongoing interest rate hikes and the trade war after recent warnings from major names including Christine Lagarde and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Meanwhile, the Italian government is holding a confidence vote on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is set to decide interest rates on Thursday, and Theresa May is pushing on with efforts to agree a Brexit deal.

“Now that the elections are behind us, earnings and the Fed will be back in focus,” said Mohannad Aama, managing director at Beam Capital Management in New York. “Neither of those factors support expanding multiples for stocks.”

Elsewhere shares of Spanish banks surged after the local Supreme Court ruled they don't have to pay back billions of euros in back taxes. The euro rallied as data showed German industrial output picked up steam in September.

Mortgage applications data is due, as well as earnings from Qualcomm, Prudential and Rockwell Automation, among others

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 1% to 2,786.00
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,234.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 95.79
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 366.76
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 153.15
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 490.65
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,085.80
  • Topix down 0.4% to 1,652.43
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 26,147.69
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,641.34
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 34,991.91
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,896.87
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,078.69
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.427%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.1486
  • Brent Futures down 0.01% to $72.12/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 7.0 bps to 3.026%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.552%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • Republicans won Senate seats from Democrats in states where Trump repeatedly journeyed for raucous, red-meat-filled rallies, including Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Trump allies won governors’ mansions in Florida, Iowa and Ohio. Trump’s party lost control of the House of Representatives. Democrats took at least 26 seats held by Republicans and one of the most high- profile races, in Georgia, was too close to call early Wednesday
  • The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives cripples Trump’s conservative agenda and opens the way for unfettered investigations into his scandal-plagued administration, his presidential campaign and his family’s business empire
  • Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson warned of an “Economic Iron Curtain” dividing the world if the U.S. and China fail to resolve strategic differences; former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned the U.S. might struggle to cope with lending risks that have spread beyond banks
  • The People’s Bank of China sold 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) of bills in its first issuance in Hong Kong Wednesday, a move that could reduce the offshore yuan’s liquidity and support the Chinese currency
  • CME Group Inc. is moving its European market for short-term financing, the largest in the region, out of London because the exchange operator wants to guarantee continental firms can continue to use it if there is a no-deal Brexit
Asian equity markets traded cautious as all focus centred on the US mid-term election results. A strong start for the Democrats weighed on US equity futures in early trade, although stock futures then recovered after further results and projections trickled in which suggested the unlikelihood of a Blue Tsunami (Democrat-controlled House and Senate) as the Republicans won in key Senate battlegrounds such as Indiana and tightly-contested Texas. As such, there was a non-committal tone in most Asia bourses with ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) choppy, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was initially bolstered by recent favourable currency moves before dipping into the red. Hang Seng (+0.1%) briefly outperformed amid a tech-led surge, before slipping into the red. Finally, price action in 10yr JGBs reflected the non-committal risk tone as participants second-guessed the election results and amid jittery trade in T-notes.

Top Asian News
  • China’s Foreign Reserves Post Third Decline Amid Outflow Signs
  • China’s Car Market May Contract This Year, Official Warns
  • China’s Datang, Huadian Said to Await Final Merger Approval
  • Vietnam’s Growth at Risk as Banks Face Capital Squeeze
European equities are positive across the board as investors digest the consequences of a split Congress, with US equity futures edging higher as some traders see the Democratic House majority as a prospect for trade policies to be reeled in slightly, albeit a lot of powers will still be retained by Trump. It is also worth noting the split Congress may translate to less fiscal stimuli as US tax reforms would face greater obstacles when passing through Congress. Going back to Europe, sectors are largely experiencing broad-based gains, while IT names lag. Spain's IBEX outperforms as banking names (Caixabank +3.8%, Sabadell +2.9%, Santander +2.8%, BBVA +2.4%) benefit from reports the Supreme court ruled that banks are not required to pay mortgage stamp duty, which saves the banks from potentially having to reimburse billions of EUR to borrowers, although source reports noted that the Spanish government is to propose a law change so banks pay mortgage stamp duties, which contradicts the ruling. In terms of individual movers, Adidas (-1.9%) is the laggard in the German benchmark after revenues missed expectations, while Fresenius Medical (+9.0%) and Mediclinic (+5.0%) rose to the top of their respective indices after voters in California rejected a proposal to cap profits on dialysis companies.

Top European News
  • Ukraine May Join Euro-Bond Rush in Bid to Deepen Investor Pool
  • SNB’s Foreign Currency Reserves Rise to Near-Record Level
  • Salvini Says Italian Government ’Absolutely Not at Risk’
  • Why May Closing In on a Brexit Deal Can’t Stem a Business Exodus
In currencies, the DXY saw a relatively marked retreat in the index amidst broad Greenback losses in wake of the US mid-term elections, as currency markets factor in the prospect of policy protraction and a more difficult passage for President Trump’s fiscal agenda through a divided Congress. The DXY has lost grip of the 96.000 handle and also breached pre-NFP lows to test support/underlying bids around 95.700.

CHF/EUR/AUD/GBP - Also firmly ahead vs the Usd, with the Franc back above parity and almost testing 0.9950 resistance despite latest SNB assurances that an accommodative and proactive stance is necessary due to fragile FX moves. The single currency has put aside persistent Italian budget concerns to clear some key upside technical levels, including 21 and 30 DMAs (1.1453 and 1.1479 respectively) to test a Fib just a fraction below 1.1500 where a whole host of orders are anticipated ranging from stops, option expiry and barrier hedging. The Aud is partially piggy-backing its antipodean counterpart, as the cross holds above 1.0700, but also extending post-RBA gains after upgrades to the 2018 and 2019 growth outlooks to probe offers/resistance ahead of 0.7300. Meanwhile, Cable continues to climb on Brexit hopes as well as the indirect bid via Buck weakness, and has now advanced above 1.3150 to circa 1.3175.

JPY/CAD - Both lagging other majors amidst the post-midterm Dollar demise, but still well ahead and rebounding from recent lows around 113.00 and 1.3075 respectively, with the Loonie also benefiting from a recovery in oil prices amidst reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia may discuss crude output cuts in 2019.

EM - Everyone’s a winner vs the increasingly down-trodded Usd, and even the Rouble that could yet face more US sanctions – Usd/Rub sub-66.0000.

In commodities, Brent (+1.0%) and WTI (+0.9%) are both higher on the day due to dollar weakness and general market sentiment, with a recent uptick in prices attribute to sources noting that Russia and Saudi Arabia are to begin discussing production cuts in 2019. In regards to Iran, the Nigerian oil minister stated that OPEC needs data on Iranian oil production ahead of the 6th December meeting, while adding that Iranian sanctions may not lead to a "nose dive" in Iranian oil output. Last night’s API crude inventories showed a build of 7.8mln barrels, which was more than three times the expected 2.4mln barrels. Traders will be mindful of the weekly DoE crude inventories for any signs of rising US crude production. Gold (+0.7%) hovering near session highs of USD 1235.4/oz as a weaker dollar boosts the yellow metal. Elsewhere, copper prices have increased on the back of dollar action and risk sentiment as market fears were alleviated by the GOP’s retention of the senate

Looking at the day ahead, much of the focus will likely be spent digesting the midterm results especially with the data on the light side. This morning in Europe it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the September industrial production print in Germany while UK house price data for October and September retail sales for the Euro Area are also due. In the US the only release of note is September consumer credit this evening. Away from that, EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom is due to make a speech in Brussels today while Russian PM Medvedev is due to meet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing.

US Event Calendar
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.5%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $20.1b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Straight to the main event this morning where the US midterm election results have mostly fallen in line with results indicated by polls, with the Democrats looking set to gain control of the House of Representatives but the Republicans retaining control of the Senate (and even potentially gaining 3 seats) according to all the major media outlets. It seems at the moment that the results have been broadly in line with what you’d expect given the President’s approval rating. There wasn’t a big blue wave but we will have a split Congress. A couple of hours before we went to print it was actually looking close in the House before the Democrats pulled away.

As for what markets have done, on net, moves have been orderly, though there were some sharper moves overnight when it looked like the Republicans might in fact retain control of both chambers. S&P 500 futures rallied as much as +0.56% around 3am GMT, but are back to +0.25% now. Similarly, the dollar swung from a +0.15% gain to -0.37% as we go to print. 10y Treasury yields are also now down 3.9bps to 3.186% however that was after touching a high of 3.2501% which in fact is higher than the closing high made back in October – which is also a seven year high. So a decent swing. In Asia we’ve also seen bourses advance including the likes of the Shanghai Comp (+0.26%), Hang Seng (+1.17%), Nikkei (+0.55%) and Kospi (+0.22%).

Yesterday’s session is a bit of an afterthought now but for completeness we did see Wall Street finish on a strong note, albeit on lighter-than-usual volumes. The NASDAQ fully reversed Monday’s loss to close +0.64% while the S&P (+0.63%) and DOW (+0.68%) also advanced into yesterday’s close with healthy gains. Mixed comments from China’s Vice President Wang Qishan about China reaffirming a desire to “work for a solution on trade acceptable to both sides” but also not to be “bullied and oppressed by imperialist powers” seemingly had little impact on sentiment. The same cannot be said for oil, where WTI and Brent slumped -1.41% and -1.42% respectively after the US issued temporary waivers to eight countries on purchases of Iranian crude. Treasuries (10-year +2.7bps) edged higher and to within half a basis point of that seven year high - which is impressive given the recent risk off – although as we’ve seen above they’ve rallied back overnight.

Prior to that, European markets just failed to clamber back onside having spent the majority of the session in the red. The STOXX 600 (-0.26%) notched up a second consecutive modest decline while the DAX and FTSE MIB ended -0.09% and -0.07% respectively. Bunds sold off +0.8bps, while BTPs underperformed (+7.2bps). The final October services PMI revisions were the highlight of the morning session, with the big headline being the outsized miss for Italy (49.2 vs. 52.0 expected). That represented a drop of 4.1pts from September and was also the first sub-50 reading since May 2016. That sent the composite down to 49.3 and a 59-month low, however the wider Eurozone composite print was revised up 0.4pts to 53.1 after Germany’s services print was revised up 1.1pts to 54.7. Italy was really the only real negative in October, as European growth looks much less synchronized than it did last year. On the positive side, however, Italy’s idiosyncratic weakness has not been contagious as yet.

Away from that, German factory orders rose +0.3% mom in September, with the August figures revised higher as well. That’s consistent with our economists’ expectations for 0.0% German growth in Q3 but a bounce to 0.3-0.4% qoq in Q4. The only data in the US yesterday was the September JOLTS report. Job openings declined slightly (to 7.01m from 7.29m in August) however the overall quits rate and the private quits rate held at 2.4% and 2.7%, respectively, matching their highest levels since 2001. Our US economists note that this data leads ECI wage growth and points to the ECI rising to 3.4% yoy by mid-2019 which, if realised, would be the highest level of the cycle.

The British Pound bounced between gains and losses yesterday but ultimately rose +0.44% amid a slew of Brexit-related headlines. The CME group announced that it is moving its eur-dominated bond and repo trading hub to Amsterdam to address potential “hard Brexit” uncertainties, while Prime Minister May is reportedly preparing to seek cabinet approval to a new draft Brexit deal. Press reports (like Bloomberg) suggested that a full Parliamentary vote could come as soon as 19 November. Ultimately, these headlines do not change the fundamental situation, where a solution to the Northern Ireland border remains the key sticking point. The DUP leader was quoted as saying that if the rhetoric goes in the current direction we’re heading for a no-deal. That’s a worry for PM May as it indicated the DUP aren’t best pleased with the current shape of the deal and without their support that chances of getting a deal through Parliament are more limited. It would also raise the prospect of an early general election if relations between the Conservatives and the DUP broke down completely as a result. Having said that cable is back above $1.31 having traded at $1.27 only a week ago.

As far the day ahead, much of the focus will likely be spent digesting the midterm results especially with the data on the light side. This morning in Europe it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the September industrial production print in Germany while UK house price data for October and September retail sales for the Euro Area are also due. In the US the only release of note is September consumer credit this evening. Away from that, EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom is due to make a speech in Brussels today while Russian PM Medvedev is due to meet Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-07/morning-after-sp-futures-surge-gridlock-dollar-slides
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Naked Capitalism Links 11/07
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/11/links-11-7-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 11/07
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TBP - 10 Wednesday AM Reads 11/07
https://ritholtz.com/2018/11/10-wednesday-am-reads-119/

CWS - Morning News: November 7, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/11/morning-news-november-7-2018.html

AR - Personal finance links: the easy inclination 11/07
https://abnormalreturns.com/2018/11/07/personal-finance-links-the-easy-inclination/

MtM - Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps 11/07
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/11/equities-and-bonds-jump-while-dollar.html

TCS - US Growth Slowdown Expected To Continue In Q4 11/07
http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-growth-slowdown-expected-to-continue-in-q4/

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Traders Cheer Midterm Results 11/07
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4219214-wall-street-breakfast-traders-cheer-midterm-results
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
The Bankers Were Treated Like Spoiled Brats After the Crisis of 2008.
maneco64


Published on Nov 7, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Elon Exposed: How Tesla & SpaceX Thrive off Taxpayer Dollars
RT America


Published on Nov 6, 2018
Anya Parampil reports on billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s recent comments that he supports President Trump’s decision to create a “Space Force” branch of the military. Anya explains that while many of us associate the Space Force with military expansion, Musk likely sees the initiative as an opportunity to win government contracts, breaking down how his SpaceX, Tesla, and SolarCity companies thrive off taxpayer money. Kevin Gustafson, organizer with Democracy at Work DC, joins In Question to trace the source of Musk’s wealth and discuss the poor working conditions faced by many of his employees.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
The Day After Elections & What It Means for Scrap - 11/7/18
iScrap App


Published on Nov 7, 2018
Check Scrap Prices Today: https://iScrapApp.com/ - Copper took some nice gains late last week, but with the elections taking place yesterday we started to see a lot of sell-offs, probably because of the uncertainty- but here we are with a better idea of what is going to be going on. With the Senate staying Republican and the House going Democrat, we are going to see some political stalemating going forward and that will affect metals prices. Read more: https://iscrapapp.com/?p=1200628

Download the iScrap App:
Free iPhone App: https://iscrapapp.com/iOS
Free Android App: https://iscrapapp.com/Android

- Visit our blog for prices & news: https://iscrapapp.com/blog/
- US State Scrap Metal Laws: https://iscrapapp.com/scrap-laws/
- Get news delivered to your inbox: http://eepurl.com/DNJJH
- Buy an iScrap App T-Shirt: https://iscrapapp.com/shop

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/iScrapApp
Twitter: https://twitter.com/iScrapApp
Instagram: http://instagram.com/iscrapapp/

If you have video requests for us, comment below or email us at: info@iscrapapp.com. Happy iScrapping!
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
U.S. Midterms: Does it Change Anything for the Economy?
Silver Fortune


Published on Nov 7, 2018
With the 2018 U.S. midterms (for the most part) decided, does this really change anything for the future of the economy?

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. Silver Bar at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

Support Silver Fortune through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/silverfortune

Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 7 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 7, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 7 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 7, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Industry Questions New Box Ship Blockchain Network
November 7, 2018 by The Loadstar


Photo: Mr. Amarin Jitnathum / Shutterstock

By Alex Lennane (The Loadstar) – Tuesday’s announcement that five shipping lines and four terminal operators are to form a consortium to develop a Global Shipping Business Network (GSBN) has raised more questions than it answered.

GSBN will be a blockchain-enabled platform that will help digitise the industry, set standards and transform documentation flows, the companies said.

The participants comprise Ocean Alliance members CMA CGM, Cosco/ OOCL and Evergreen – but also, interestingly THE alliance partner Yang Ming, as well as DP World, Hutchison Ports, PSA and Shanghai International Port. The tech company is CargoSmart.

The announcement immediately drew comparison with the Maersk/IBM effort, TradeLens, which has been criticised for alienating much-needed potential partners because of Maersk’s heavy involvement.

One port source on Twitter noted yesterday: “Can’t help thinking that any line’s proprietary blockchain solution is going to struggle with universal, or even widespread, acceptance.”

Stefan Kukman, CEO of blockchain specialist CargoX, said: “Of course we are glad to see distributed ledger technology gather interest in the market, and for companies to rely on it. But seeing such initiatives, numerous questions arise. This obviously is not an independent platform, as it is created by the consortium of powerful runner-ups to the Maersk/IBM duo.

“How will private data be handled? What processes will be covered in the platform? Will it be open to other services, such as the CargoX Smart B/L(TM), for example? Will it have vendor lock-in by default, or will it enable companies to take out their private data and process it in their own way?”

He added: “If they are going to develop from scratch, such processes can take a long time, especially if specific private interests of the consortium members will need to be catered to.”

While CargoSmart failed to respond to The Loadstar, the press release confirmed that the platform would connect to other consortium networks.

It also said it would develop a “digital baseline for standards – an industry-wide common, trusted and expansive digital model provides a foundation for highly collaborative initiatives and market intelligence”.

However, further details are as yet unclear. One fear is that with various consortia looking to develop industry standards, they may not end up being industry-wide.

At the Global Liner Shipping Conference in March, Peter Wolf, general manager Germany for CMA CGM, a member of the new platform, said the only realistic way forward was a digital solution in which five to seven of the biggest lines jointly developed a platform.

And Hapag-Lloyd chief Rolf Habben Jansen, which as part of THE Alliance has yet to join a digital platform, said at the conference that although the Maersk/ IBM platform could be good, it had to be industry-wide.

“This is the weakness we’re currently seeing in many of these initiatives, as each individual project claims to offer an industry platform that they themselves control. This is self-contradictory.”

Mr Kukman warned: “This is about the digitalisation of the industry as a whole. Service and solution providers who do not open their data models, processes, and data transaction technology to other participants in the market, might do more damage than good for the whole industry, and blockchain technology specifically.

“We hope the consortium will develop in the right direction, as everybody can benefit from that. Just imagine, big systems, such as CargoSmart, TradeLens and CargoX being interconnectable, to offer smooth collaboration.”

With THE Alliance member Yang Ming involved in the new platform, one shipping observer noted: “This will add to chatter on the pressure for Evergreen to take Yang Ming under its wing.”

The Loadstar is fast becoming known at the highest levels of logistics and supply chain management as one of the best sources of influential analysis and commentary.

Check them out at TheLoadstar.co.uk, or find them on Facebook and Twitter.

https://gcaptain.com/industry-questions-new-box-ship-blockchain-network/
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Us Stock Futures Slide, Dollar Rises As Fed Looms


by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/08/2018 - 06:50

Yesterday's torrid US market "melt-up", which was the strongest post-midterm rally since 1982 after an election whose outcome was supposedly "priced in", has faded with futures dipping 0.4% as traders shift their attention to today's FOMC decision.



Even with the US taking a breather, world stocks enjoyed the eighth straight session of gains in their longest winning streak of the year on Thursday, as strong trade data from China kept the momentum from the previous day’s U.S. rally rolling.



European shares initially jumped to a one-month high, though they have since pared most of their earlier gains despite solid results from Siemens, SocGen and Commerzbank and Sodexho which eased concerns about slowing corporate earnings in Europe. Asia and Wall Street had set similar milestones overnight. Japan’s Topix jumped 1.7% and shares in Hong Kong and South Korea also posted solid gains.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 0.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.2 percent, unable to hold on to gains from stronger-than-expected October Chinese exports data. Australian stocks rose 0.5 percent too, South Korea's KOSPI added 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei surged 1.8 percent, which was almost as much as Wall Street's 2 percent leap.



Earlier in the day, China reported that exports growth picked up modestly to 15.6% yoy in October, and imports growth also accelerated to 21.4% yoy in October. Both readings are above consensus. However, in sequential terms, exports slowed to 1.2% mom sa non-annualized, from a strong gain of 3.4% in September.



The dollar rebounded from two and a half week lows after three days of declines, while Italian bond yields jumped after the European Union warned the nation’s budget deficit will move dangerously close to the economic bloc’s limit of 3%.

Donald Trump’s loss of the House of Representatives in the midterms reduced the chance of another tax cut. That in turn had analysts and money managers breathing a sigh of relief that the U.S. economy wouldn’t ultimately overheat and force the Fed to keep jacking up borrowing costs.

“We think we are close to the end of the appreciation of the dollar,” said fund manager Amundi’s Didier Borowski, who expects the Fed to pause its hiking cycle next year as the economy starts to slow. “Usually we see a year-end rally (in stocks)” he added.

The bond market there was plenty of activity too, with the 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 3.24%, its highest since Oct. 9, before dipping a couple of basis points lower. Italian government bond yields were up to five basis points higher in early trade following key economic projections from the European Commission which warned the country’s 2019 deficit will be much higher than suggested by Rome.

It pushed Italy’s bond spread over higher-rated Germany out to 290 basis points and Mizuho rates strategist Peter Chatwell warned of a possible further sell-off if Rome’s populist coalition government thumbs its nose at Brussels again. “In our model, it doesn’t move fair value much from 300 bps (over Germany) but scary headlines are likely to cause a widening,” he added.



While the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions prompted much media attention on Wednesday, it had no impact on markets, where the attention now shifts to Thursday’s Federal Reserve decision. Investors will be looking for any signals on the pace of policy tightening into 2019.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index whipsawed amid thin volumes ahead of the Fed rate decision. The euro swung between gains and losses as it traded in a narrow range; Sweden’s krona rallied to a three-month high against the euro after the Riksbank reasserted its tightening plans in a parliament hearing, while also benefiting from a continued strong demand for global equities. Norway’s krone and Canadian dollar were also supported by equities and by stabilizing oil prices. The Aussie got a boost from stronger-than-forecast Chinese trade data; the kiwi reversed gains as the greenback gained traction after the London open; it earlier rose as the central bank held rates and removed an explicit reference to a rate cut in its policy statement. The yen weakened as a rally in Japanese stocks damped haven demand.

In commodities, WTI inched up 0.6 percent to $62.03 a barrel after falling to an eight-month low of $61.20 on Wednesday. Oil prices struggled after surging U.S. crude output hit another record and domestic inventories rose more than expected.

Expected economic events include U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision and jobless-claims data. Bombardier, Hydro One, and Disney are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,805.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 368.09
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 154.46
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 493.73
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 22,486.92
  • Topix up 1.7% to 1,681.25
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,227.72
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,635.63
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 35,237.68
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,928.24
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,092.63
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.46%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1417
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.9 bps to 2.967%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.621%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $72.67/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,223.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 96.25
Top Overnight News
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has begun briefing her Cabinet on the text of the almost-complete Brexit deal, as her negotiators seek to finalize the last outstanding issue in Brussels
  • U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller could challenge the appointment of Matt Whitaker as acting attorney general by saying that his predecessor, Jeff Sessions, didn’t leave voluntarily but was forced out by the president, a former federal prosecutor said
  • After weeks of accusing Rome of too- optimistic assumptions about the effect of its spending plans, the EU said Thursday that economic growth next year will be weaker than the government targets, and the nation’s budget will move dangerously close to the EU limit of 3 percent
  • The $20 billion that Japanese funds pumped into American sovereign debt in September, the most in more than two years, signals that the debate many of them have been having about currency hedging may be over. Even with 10-year Treasuries offering yields of more than 3 percent, hedging would have eliminated the gains, according to calculations by Bloomberg
  • European central banks are putting their dollar reserves to work in Japan, lured by attractive premiums paid by currency hedgers; U.K. and French investors have been the top two buyers of Japanese short-term debt in the first three quarters of the year, according to data from the Ministry of Finance
  • The ECB will review how its 2.6 trillion-euro ($3 trillion) bond-buying program is divided among euro-zone nations. Bloomberg Economics calculates that the changes could mean purchases of Italian bonds drop by 750 million euros next year, with those of Germany climbing by 1 billion euros
Major European indices are mixed (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) after beginning the session in the green, the SMI (+0.4%) is leading the gains, while Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.5%) lags its peers. Similarly, after starting the session in the green major sectors are now somewhat mixed.

Underperformance is being seen in the consumer discretionary sector while financial names are outperforming as the sector is buoyed by SocGen (+2.8%) and Commerzbank (+6.0%) post-earnings. In terms of individual movers, Prosiebensat (-16.0%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after a miss on their earnings, while UniCredit (-2.0%) are also lower following pessimistic earnings due to write-downs for Turkey not being factored into estimates.

Top European News
  • Commerzbank Gets Boost From Retail Unit as Zielke Adds Clients
  • Siemens Raises Dividend as Health, Software Mask Power Loss
  • U.K. May Revive Belgian Truck Ferry Route to Ease Brexit Snags
  • Two Years of Pound Pain May Be Over With $1.50 On Brexit Deal
Asian stocks were mostly higher as they took impetus from the post-election rally seen on Wall St where all majors gained at least 2% and the DJIA notched more than a 500-point gain as investors ploughed back into stocks after the US mid-terms results conformed to the broad consensus. ASX 200 (+0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) were both firmer from the get-go with tech the outperformer in Australia after a similar strong showing of the sector in US, while the Japanese benchmark ignored the largest drop on record for Machine Orders and was boosted by a weaker currency. Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) initially benefitted from the heightened global risk appetite with the latter underpinned by a decline in money market rates after the PBoC’s bill sale in Hong Kong the prior day, while participants also digested the latest trade data from China in which Trade Balance slightly missed but Exports and Imports both topped estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially tracked the downside in USTs as the rampant tone in equities weighed on safe-havens but with losses stemmed following firmer demand at today’s enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News
  • Nike, LVMH Back Up China’s Piracy Efforts in Contrast to Trump
  • Takeda Offers Euro Denominated Bonds to Help Fund Shire Deal
  • APA Plunges Most Since 2008 as Australia Blocks CK Pipeline Bid
  • Treasuries Above 3% May Be Altering Japan Funds’ Math on Hedging
In currencies, the DXY index is holding relatively firm above the 96.000 handle within a fairly confined range awaiting the Fed and confirmation that it remains on course to deliver a 4th and final 25 bp hike in December. However, the Dollar is not ahead across the board vs G10 counterparts as it continues to struggle in wake of the mid-term/midweek wobble, and certain currency rivals glean support from independent factors.

SEK/NOK/AUD/CAD - All outperforming, albeit to varying degrees and not necessarily for obvious or intuitive reasons. The Scandi crowns have hawkish Central Bank vibes and mainly strong economic/fiscal fundamentals, as Eur/Sek tests 10.2600 bids/support having breached a key tech level above 10.3000 and Eur/Nok revisits 9.5000 with added fuel from a rebound in oil prices, albeit from fairly deep lows. Meanwhile, the drew some encouragement from upbeat Chinese imports and exports overnight to edge a fraction closer to 0.7300 and the Loonie heads into Canadian housing data back above 1.3100, also with the aid of recovering crude.

GBP/CHF/EUR - Yet more conflicting Brexit reports for the Pound to contend with and keeping Cable choppy within 1.3090-1.3150 parameters, but Eur/Gbp softer around 0.8700 in wake of news that UK PM May is heading back to Brussels for more talks and suggestions via the Austrian press citing EC sources that a deal could be reached as early as Monday. The Franc is back below parity and single currency also whippy amidst latest EU-Italian divergence on Rome’s 2019 budget projections and assumptions about deficit developments – Eur/Usd between 1.1410-45, and also eyeing decent option expiry related interest from 1.1415-25 (1.3 BN).

In commodities, WTI (+0.5%) and Brent (+0.6%) are both higher following yesterday’s sell-off as China’s October crude imports reached a record high of 9.61mln BPD, a 32% Y/Y increase, hence watering down concerns that a slowdown in their economy may lead to a glut in the oil market. Upside in oil prices are capped amid yesterday’s EIA data which showed a record production of 11.6mln barrels of US crude. Gold (-0.2%) prices have eased as the dollar rebounded from post-midterms lows ahead of the FOMC meeting later today. Elsewhere, Chinese aluminium exports fell 3.6% from September’s level, as sliding domestic production meant there was less available metal for overseas markets. Furthermore, copper underperforms today after China’s imports of the red metal falling by 18.7%, signalling lower demand.

Looking at the day ahead, highlight is the Fed meeting. Prior to that the data releases this morning include September trade balance readings in Germany and France and also the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts update. In the US we’re only due to get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. Also worth flagging today are scheduled comments from ECB President Draghi in Dublin at 3.20pm GMT.

US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 213,000, prior 214,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.63m, prior 1.63m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 60.3
  • 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
On the year-end rally, markets perfectly adhered to the usual post-midterms playbook yesterday as equities soared on Election Day +1. The NASDAQ (+2.64%) led the way with the NYSE FANG index also soaring +2.92% (Amazon +6.87%), closely followed by the S&P 500 (+2.12%) and DOW (+2.13%). The S&P 500 also went above its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 19th and has now retraced over 50% of the -9.88% decline the index took from the end of September into October 29th – the recent lows for the index. It’s also seen four >+1% moves in the last seven sessions. Volatility has certainly also fallen in recent weeks with the VIX yesterday falling -3.55pts (the biggest % fall since February) to 16.36 and its lowest since October 9th. That intraday high of 28.84 back on October 11th feels a while back now.

After a wide-ranging press conference where he dangled the prospect of bipartisan deals, President Trump accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. His chief of staff Matthew Whitaker, who has called the Mueller investigation a “witch hunt,” will now take over oversight of the probe. This is a potential source of volatility moving forward, but vol and equity markets ignored the news amid yesterday’s euphoric rally.

Elsewhere, Europe also had a decent day yesterday too with the STOXX 600 rising +1.06% and European Banks +1.52% with Spanish lenders leading the way following a reversal of the mortgage tax verdict where banks were at risk of billions of euros of costs. Spanish banks were off the early highs of +5.81% to close +2.43%, as the Spanish PM suggested he regretted the reversal and would publish a decree to make the banks pay the tax going forward. Separately, the ECB nominated Andrea Enria (from Italy) to succeed Daniele Nouy as head of the central bank’s supervisory operations. The pick should clear the way for Bank of Ireland Governor Philip Lane to be appointed as successor to Peter Praet on the ECB’s Executive Board as Chief Economist. Lane is a pragmatist, so there should not be a major change to policy, though at the margin he may favour more macroprudential policies to limit financial excesses rather than interest rates, making him slightly more dovish on rates than otherwise.

Less one-way traffic was the move for oil yesterday. Following headlines out of Bloomberg suggesting that OPEC and allies were discussing production cuts for next year, Brent and WTI jumped as much as +2.40% and +2.45% from the early day lows before bearish supply data saw the oil complex give up all of those gains before closing -0.08% and -0.87% Brent and WTI respectively. On the potential cuts, remember that it was only back in June that we had the agreement among OPEC and major producers to boost output. Bloomberg quoted delegates as saying that the OPEC and allies coalition are likely to discuss the possibility of a cut this Sunday in Abu Dhabi.

As for other markets yesterday, well the other side of the midterm result was a weaker greenback (USD index -0.33%), and a flatter US curve. Ten-year yields closed +0.8bps higher after testing those seven-year highs just over 24 hours ago while 30-year yields fell -0.6bps. Two-year yields on the other hand were +2.9bps higher meaning the 2s10s curve flattened 2.1bps and the most in a month. The midterm results also helped the MSCI EM index to rise +0.57% while in FX the South African rand paced gains (+1.48%), however the Mexican peso fell -0.73%, possibly due to renewed concerns that the incoming Democratic House majority could delay or defeat the new USMCA deal, which has been negotiated to replace NAFTA.

Markets overnight have taken their cue from Wall Street with broad based gains across much of Asia. Leading the way is Japan where the Nikkei and Topix are +1.92% and +1.81% respectively, while the Kospi (+1.64%), Hang Seng (+0.96%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.61%) are also higher. The most notable overnight release has come in China where the October trade stats are out. Exports in both USD (+15.6% yoy vs. +11.7% expected) and CNY terms (+20.1% yoy vs. +14.2% expected) have risen faster than expected, resulting in a small widening of the trade surplus. One suggestion might be a front loading of shipments ahead of the implementation of higher tariffs in January.

So, with another political hurdle successfully dealt with its back to the more routine for markets with a Fed meeting to look forward to this evening. As a reminder this meeting doesn’t include a post-meeting press conference and is therefore unlikely to be a hugely exciting affair. Indeed the overriding consensus, both amongst economists and also in markets, is for no hike.

Our economists believe that the only “drama” about the statement will be around alterations to the Committee’s description of recent economic developments. They note that the statement can continue to see the pace of economic growth and job gains as strong, and can acknowledge that the unemployment rate has declined further. Household spending has continued to grow strongly as noted previously, but business investment has softened in recent months. The statement may make note of this, perhaps by using a phrase along the lines of: "Recent data suggest that growth of business fixed investment moderated from its strong first half pace." Inflation will still be seen as remaining near 2%, with inflation expectations little changed on average despite recent declines in market-based measures. An acknowledgement of recent tightening in financial conditions is unlikely. Outside of the statement, there will be some focus on whether or not the Fed make another “technical adjustment” by reducing the IOER by 5bps, to ensure that the fed funds rate continues to trade within its target range. Our team think this will be deferred until December when they can again raise the IOER by 20bps, though the exact timing is not especially significant in terms of monetary policy. As such we’d expect a strong signal in today’s minutes.

Staying with politics and the daily Brexit update, there was a lot more noise yesterday but still little substance on the key question: the Northern Ireland border. According to Bloomberg, Prime Minister May has shared the draft text of the UK’s withdrawal package, though has not included the section of the deal covering the Irish border. Officials from the EU, including Commission President Tusk and Irish PM Varadkar signalled that a deal may near, but the details are still being negotiated and are accordingly unclear. Despite the lack of true news, the pound continued its recent grind higher, gaining +0.21% to $1.313 (which is where its hovering around this morning), and our strategists expect a full deal to be announced next week, at which point the UK political reaction will be key.

To the day ahead now, where the highlight is almost certain to be the aforementioned Fed meeting this evening. Prior to that the data releases this morning include September trade balance readings in Germany and France and also the European Commission’s latest economic forecasts update. In the US we’re only due to get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. Also worth flagging today are scheduled comments from ECB President Draghi in Dublin at 3.20pm GMT.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-08/us-stock-futures-slide-dollar-rises-fed-looms
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
FOMC Preview: On Track For A December Hike


by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/08/2018 - 07:34

Today at 2PM, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest rate decision, in which the FOMC will likely hold the fed funds rate target between 2.00 – 2.25%, and since this is the last meeting with with no economic projections or post-meeting press conference (this changes in 2019, when every meeting will be "live" with a presser) the market's attention will focus on the statement. Some banks, such as Goldman, will be on the lookout for any Fed references to the 8% October sell-off; should these be present it would be seen as a dovish sign of concern about risk assets.

As RanSquawk summarizes, the FOMC is not expected to tweak the federal funds rate target at its November meeting, with markets seeing this week’s gathering as a pause before the Fed delivers a fourth 2018 hike in December. A hike at the next meeting is almost fully priced in, with a markets-implied probability of around 80%. Looking ahead, the Fed now expects three rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020, with the 2021 dot plot looking for rates to be between 3.25-3.50%, matching its 2020 projection, hinting that the FOMC will put an end date to its hiking cycle some time in 2020.

ECONOMY: The incoming data supports the Fed's conviction that the US economy is in good shape; in last week’s jobs report, unemployment held steady at 3.7% and average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% YY - the highest wage growth seen in this cycle (mostly due to calendar affects). On the growth front, Q3 GDP came in at a strong 3.5%. Goldman Sachs believes economic activity will likely continue in this direction, although it highlights that the FOMC may acknowledge the moderation in business fixed investment. In sum, while growth has likely peaked, it remains well above the pace required to stabilize the labor market and the Fed will likely deliver a relatively upbeat statement that sets the table for a December hike.

Downside risks remain related to trade war uncertainty as Oxford Economics warns that ‘increasing trade-related supply-chain disruptions are boosting cost-pressures’ with some worried this could cause a ‘late-cycle breakout in wage growth and inflation’, and now forecasting a slowdown in economic growth this year to 2.5% from 3.0%.



STATEMENT: There will be no post-meeting press conference, nor will the central bank update its economic projections; attention, therefore, will be on the statement. Goldman Sachs’ analysts will be watching for three main factors: will the Fed allude to the recent market sell-off, after stocks have skidded by around 8% since the September meeting. The bank will also be monitoring what the Fed makes of economic activity, after some metrics recently hinted that momentum was slowing.

FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: Goldman will also be monitoring for any comments around financial conditions but doesn’t expect changes on the language around financial developments, which the FOMC has listed as one of the factors it assesses in its policy outlook. “While the Fed has often been sensitive to substantial tightening in financial conditions, we think additional emphasis is on financial conditions in the short statement would send too dovish a policy signal, especially because growth is currently still very strong.” Accordingly, GS expects an upbeat statement.



HIKING PATH: Looking ahead, the bank writes that the increased estimated growth drag in 2019 from its financial conditions index tightening has increased the risk that growth slows to a trend pace earlier than the end of 2019; “we now therefore see the risks around our Fed call of five more hikes through the end of 2019 as symmetric,” Goldman says, “there is still a significant risk of a longer or steeper hiking cycle, but this is now balanced by a risk of a shorter cycle or an extended pause.”

Finally, this is what Goldman believes the Fed's November statement will look like, redlined for changes with the September meeting:




https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-07/fomc-preview-track-december-hike
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Thursday, 8th November 2018
Share Talk


Published on Nov 8, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

N4 Pharma Plc (N4P)
Orosur Mining (OMI)
Prairie Min (PDZ)
Predator Oil (PRD)
UK Oil & Gas (UKOG)
Versarien (VRS)
Vectura (VEC)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
COMMODITY PRICE FORECAST: November 7, 2018: Crude Oil & Gold Price Forecast
TheGoldAndSilverClub


Published on Nov 7, 2018
JOIN THE LIVE TRADING ROOM HERE ▶ http://www.jointhelivetradingroom.com/
▶ To Receive LIVE Trade Alerts, Mentorship & Expert Insights For Profitable Commodity Trading.

-------------------
The Gold & Silver Club is an international Commodities Trading, Research and Advisory Group specializing in the Metals, Energy and Agriculture markets.
Learn More ▶ https://www.thegoldandsilverclub.com/
--------------------

© 2018 The Gold & Silver Club Limited
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
FWIW...………..dyodd.

American Elections Farce as Politicians Ignore the Looming $121.7 Trillion Debt Crisis
GoldCore


Published on Nov 8, 2018
AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE – IN TODAY'S VIDEO UPDATE WE LOOK AT YET ANOTHER ‘PUNCH & JUDY’ ELECTION WHICH ONCE AGAIN IGNORED THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM - THE INEVITABLE U.S. $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS AND THE GLOBAL $250 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS

We briefly look at the outcome of the elections, how markets have reacted in the short term and more importantly the long term outlook for markets and the dollar

We examine the “Punch and Judy” farce that were the American elections this week in which both the politicians, the media and the people again managed to completely ignore one of the greatest financial, economic and societal challenges facing the U.S. and indeed the world – the coming U.S. and global debt crisis.

Trump said he would erase America's debt in 8 years. It's now bigger than ever. When this promise was made, the national debt stood at $19 trillion. When Trump became President the US National debt was just below $20 trillion; it has since risen to $21.7 trillion.

During Obama’s presidency, the total national debt has risen from $10.6 trillion to nearly $20 trillion.

This debt is just the nominal national debt and there is also the not insignificant matter of the between $100 trillion and $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities – for medicare, medicaid and social security. As the Baby Boomers retire, these liabilities are coming due in the coming years.

The U.S., like the EU and most western nations, is “kicking the can down the road.” Consequently, a U.S. and global debt crisis looks likely in the coming months and years.

Trump was elected on a promise to reduce the debt and government spending including that on the military and the Deep State. Not only has he failed miserably in this goal - he had done the opposite. He has not been a man of his word and like a lot of politicians – both Republican and Democrat, left and right - he talks the talk but completely fails to walk the walk!

Politics in the U.S. and globally has been reduced to a modern ‘Punch and Judy’ show. It is akin to a kids puppet show in which the competitors beat each other up and it is a distraction for the child like electorate. The politicians resemble mere puppets to corporate and Wall Street vested interests who are 'pulling the strings' and enriching themselves from behind the political stage.

This is happening at the expense of individuals, families, farmers, entrepreneurs, small and medium size enterprises, less politically connected corporations and banks and ultimately society itself.

Massive military expenditures are justified - nearly half of U.S. government expenditure now goes to the arms industry - by scaring the people with the latest bogeyman du jour. There are evil villains every where as the Deep State and their corrupt and idiotic politicians and a compliant media who do the fear mongering of the Deep State. Constant political and media fear mongering and “cat calls” of "look behind you" at the latest enemy of the day.

The lists grows longer by the day:
Evil Russia in Soviet era to evil Saddam Hussein and Iraq (once an ally) to Gadafi in Libya (once an ally) to North Korea (who were an existential threat and evil one week and then became allies more recently and "Little Rocket Man" may become an enemy again if necessary) to evil Muslims everywhere (except fundamentalist Saudi Arabia who West sells arms to) to evil Russians again in recent years, and now we appear set for an even bigger enemy – those evil Chinese who are now hacking our devices and trying to monitor us. Western governments would never do such a thing!

Tweedle Dum Tweedle Dee: During the 2000 United States presidential election, candidate Ralph Nader claimed that George W. Bush and Al Gore were not very different in their policies and how they had become captured by corporate and Wall Street interests. He rightly called them the parties and candidates - Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

Trajectory towards empire is inexorable and now has a momentum and life of its own alas. Ralph Nader, Ron Paul were opportunities to change the trajectory which were not embraced alas.

Ultimately all of this bodes badly for the US, its economy and the US dollar.

The threats posed to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency of the world and the coming dollar and fiat currency devaluations as currency wars intensify make owning physical gold in the safest ways possible essential to all who wish to preserve wealth in the coming years.

Direct Access Gold Podcast Special - The Safest Way To Own Gold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5wmq...
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Beware: The New "Exit Tax" Trend
Nomad Capitalist


Published on Nov 8, 2018
http://nomadcapitalist.com/tax-reduct...

There's a new "exit tax" trend that is potentially of concern to anyone who wants to reduce their taxes and reclaim their freedom.

Poland has a law that will impose an "exit tax" on anyone leaving the country if they have a business they're moving overseas, and/or if they have more than about $500,000 in assets. That means that wealthy people leaving Poland may be hit with a big bill before they move to a tax-free lifestyle overseas.

This is part of a growing trend where countries, including the United States, want one last "bite at the apple" before allowing their taxpayers to leave.

If you're a high-earning entrepreneur or investor and would like to enjoy lower tax rates somewhere else, chances are now is the best time to start the relocation process - or at least spending some time overseas - before laws like this get more strict.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's Morning Flash Video for 11 8 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 8, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 8 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 8, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 8 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 8, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Global Stocks, Oil Tumble As Dollar Surges And Familiar Fears Return


by Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/09/2018 - 07:33


Was the Wednesday post-election rally a one-hit wonder? Was the FOMC, despite its surprisingly sparse statement, superhawkish? Was nothing actually fixed this week (narrator: "it wasn't") and are all the "same old" fears - trade wars, interest rates, China, tighter financial conditions, peak earnings, slowing global economy - haunting the market making a comeback?

Those are questions on traders' minds this morning as global markets were headed for their biggest drop in two weeks, awash in a sea of red, as the MSCI World index fell half a percent, its biggest drop since Oct. 26 ...



... as Brent tumbles below $70/barrel to a 6 month low, while WTI is now 21% below its recent high and has entered a bear market, now down for a record 10th consecutive day in a row...



... and as the dollar surge brings it just shy of the 2018 highs as the yuan resumed weakening on growing concerns about a slowdown in China, despite inflation data out of Beijing overnight that came in as expected.



While the Fed's decision to hold rates was expected, some traders had expected an even more dovish approach and a mention of the October rout; its absence led to an overly hawkish take with the Fed confirming a December increase is a distinct possibility for the robust US economy. That contrasts sharply with China, where cooling producer price inflation and falling car sales suggested an economy struggling to gain traction.

“Worries about trade wars and how the slowdown in China will impact the rest of the world mean stocks appear to be more risky, so there’s a typical risk-off move in markets today,” said DZ Bank rates strategist Pascal Segesser.

And as "plain vanilla" growth risks return now that the election is gone, stocks in Hong Kong and China were the main losers in Asia, where a financial sector sub-index fell more than 2 percent after China’s banking watchdog told lenders to allocate at least a third of new loans to private companies, raising the prospects of a jump in bad assets. Additionally, a decline in Chinese PPI, weak car sales and a disappointing outlook from a top online travel company combined to reignite lingering concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy as BBG notes. As as result, the Shanghai Composite, a barometer for overall risk sentiment outside the US, continued to slide, and was down 1.4%, closing just below 2,600, its lowest level since the end of September.



European stocks followed Asia lower, with Europe's Stoxx 600 Index down 0.7%, dragged lower by mining and energy shares after crude oil entered a bear market and most industrial metals fell, while disappointing forecasts from Richemont and Thyssenkrup AG also weighed on the index.

US equity futures contracts pointed to second day of declines for U.S. stocks.

Losses in equities pressured bond yields lower, with debt in Germany and the United States rising across the board, pressured by world trade frictions and a budget standoff between Italy and Brussels.

Meanwhile, in FX, the confident Fed boosted the dollar, which had weakened sharply after mid-term elections this week raised the prospects of U.S. political gridlock. The greenback gained a quarter of a percent against the euro and half a percent against the British pound, and is back to just shy of its 2018 highs. The DXY dollar index gained 0.25 percent to 96.86. The Aussie swung to a loss as the central bank’s economic forecasts disappointed traders. The pound erased some of this week’s gains as the Irish border continued to be the biggest hurdle to a Brexit divorce deal; U.K. data was mixed, with the trade deficit shrinking while industrial production and services figures were underwhelming.

In commodities, oil prices fell to multi-month lows as global supply increased and investors worried about the impact from soaring US output, set to hit a record 12mmbpd, and concerns about fuel demand from of lower economic growth and trade disputes. Benchmark Brent crude oil fell to its lowest since early April, down more than 18 percent since reaching four-year highs at the beginning of October. Also overnight, the sturdy dollar tarnished the appetite for safe-haven gold with the price down 0.2% at $1221.42 an ounce.


Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,796.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 365.14
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 152.39
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 485.31
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 22,250.25
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,672.98
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.4% to 25,601.92
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 2,598.87
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 35,156.02
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,921.85
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,086.09
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.8 bps to 0.429%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1338
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.49/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.7 bps to 3.025%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.602%
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.50/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,220.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.85
Top Overnight News
  • Labor Secretary Alex Acosta, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and U.S. Appeals Court Judge Edith Jones are among the people White House aides and outside advisers are considering to replace Jeff Sessions as the nation’s top law enforcement officer
  • The White House is unprepared to defend itself against a coming wave of investigations by newly empowered House Democrats, who have vowed to probe everything from cabinet members’ ethics scandals to conflicts of interest involving the president’s business empire
  • UBS risks billions in fines as its two biggest legal cases in years are hitting the final stretch, in a test of Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti’s strategy of taking on French and U.S. authorities
  • China laid out banks’ lending targets for private companies, as it aims to boost large banks’ loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending
  • India’s government is asking the central bank to hand over a part of its surplus reserves to put that to more productive use, an official told reporters
  • Amid optimism a Brexit deal could be reached soon, the Irish border issue continues to be the biggest hurdle while crunching the numbers suggests any deal faces a difficult journey through Parliament
Asian equity markets traded lower following a lacklustre lead from Wall St where the mid-term stock rally stalled as focus shifted to the FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were lower with energy stocks pressured after a continued slump in oil prices and as soft earnings results also clouded over Tokyo sentiment. Hang Seng (-2.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.4%) were the worst hit in the region as tech and energy stocks lagged, while continued PBoC liquidity inaction and inline inflation data proved to be inconclusive for sentiment. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with prices uneventful as the pressure from the recent losses in T-notes was counterbalanced by the risk averse tone and BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 980bln of JGBs across the curve.

Top Asian News
  • A Fifth of China’s Housing Is Empty. That’s 50 Million Homes
  • PBOC’s Yi Warns of Uncertainties in Fed’s Policy, Trade Tensions
  • Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks
  • China Banks Fall on Concern Loan Targets Are a Step Too Far
Major European equities are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%) as the sentiment seen in Asia spills over onto the region. Material names lag amid the slump in base metal prices, while consumer staples outperform. The finance sector is also experiencing weakness with the likes of Spanish banks exposed to Mexico (BBVA -6.7%, Sabadell -2.8%, Santander -2.4%) pressured after Mexican banks fell overnight amid a surprise proposal from the incoming President AMLO to scrap bank fees. (Note: BBVA made 28% of its revenues and 34% of its operating income from Mexico last year.) Meanwhile, UBS (-4.3%) shares declines after the US Justice Department filed a lawsuit against the bank for defrauding investors in its sales of mortgage-backed securities leading up to the global financial crisis. Over in Germany, steel-maker Thyssenkrupp (-11.0%) shares slumped after the company announced a profit warning due to provisions for an ongoing cartel probe and quality problems at its auto business. Elsewhere, Richemont (-6.7%) shares declines amid disappointing earnings, hitting the likes of European Luxury names (LVMH -2.0%, Kering -3.6%) in sympathy.

Top European News
  • Turkey Cancels 3 Bond Auctions on Reduced Financing Needs
  • Pound Skeptics Turn Believers as Brexit Divorce Deal Looks Near
  • France Seizes Ryanair Plane to Force State Aid Repayment
  • Telecom Italia Scraps Debt Plan, Sees $2.3 Billion Writedown
In FX, the dollar appears to have stopped for the Greenback on Wednesday, and its resurgence from mid-term election lows has been fuelled to a degree by the latest FOMC policy statement that effectively underpins market expectations for a December hike. Amidst almost universal gains vs currency counterparts, the index is now nudging 97.000 from just shy of 95.700 at one stage and the 2018 peak of 97.201 is back within striking distance.

GBP - Brexit impulses continue to ebb and flow between positive vibes on deal prospects and the proverbial cliff edge withdrawal, but the bottom line is that Irish border and back-stop differences remain unresolved to leave the UK at risk of failing to agree terms at home and/or with the EU. Hence, Sterling has lost momentum and is underperforming alongside the NOK (undermined by much softer than expected Norwegian inflation data to trade down around 9.5700 vs the Eur) within the G10 ranks, as Cable teeters above 1.3000, and largely shrugged off a barrage of UK data (GDP firm and trade above consensus, but other elements less encouraging).

CAD/EUR - The next worst majors, with Loonie hit by collapsing oil prices and sliding towards 1.3200 vs its US peer, while the single currency continues its relatively sharp and abrupt pull-back from 1.1500 to retest support ahead of the 1.1300 ytd low. Ongoing Italian-EU budget differences are weighing along with more signs of a slowdown, or even weakness in the Eurozone economy, while hefty option expiries are also eyed (1.1300 in 1.1 bn, 1.1340-50 in 2.0 bn and 1.1375 in 1.3 bn for example).

AUD/NZD - Also falling prey to their US rival’s revival and hardly helped by neutral or wait-and-see policy guidance from the RBA or RBNZ, as Aud/Usd recoils to sub-0.7250 and Nzd/Usd backs off further from almost 0.6800 to under 0.6750.

In commodities, WTI (-1.6%) and Brent (-1.4%) lost the USD 60/bbl and USD 70/bbl handles respectively, after the complex entered into bear market territory amid rising supply and concerns of a slowdown in global economic growth. Both benchmarks declined around 20% from the four-year highs reached at the front end of October and are set for a fifth straight week of declines, while North Sea Brent Crude hit seven-month lows. The slide has been exacerbated by US’ decision to permit eight countries to continue importing Iranian oil after the imposition of sanctions on the OPEC member, as well as record production of crude oil over in the States. Looking ahead, investors and traders will be focusing on this weekend’s meeting of OPEC and its allies where they are set to discuss output strategies in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. During the week, there were source reports that Russia and Saudi are to start discussing oil production cuts in 2019. This comes after OPEC’s October production reached the highest level since 2016, while Russia hiked its output in the prior month to recent highs of 11.4mln BPD. Producers on Sunday will have to discuss the threat of a glut alongside the prospect of lower demand from faltering EM economies and repercussions from US-Sino trade disputes.

Elsewhere, metals trade lower across the board with copper underperforming amid post-FOMC dollar strength and concerns regarding slowing global economic growth. Among precious metals, spot gold (-0.3%) tracks USD action, with the yellow metal dropping to the lowest level this month, while spot silver (-0.4%) is set for its largest weekly percentage decline in nine weeks. US Federal judge blocked Keystone XL Pipeline stating that US administration's justification for the approval was incomplete, while the judge added that the State Department failed to evaluate climate impact, oil spills and cultural resources.

US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.5%; Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 2.9%
  • 8:45am: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98, prior 98.6; Expectations, est. 87.2, prior 89.3; Current Conditions, est. 114.9, prior 113.1
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...umble-dollar-surges-and-familiar-fears-return
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
In Major Defeat For Trump, Judge Blocks Construction Of Keystone XL Pipeline


by Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/09/2018 - 07:46


In a setback for the Trump administration, a federal judge in Montana temporarily halted construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline late on Thursday on the grounds that the U.S. government did not complete a full analysis of the environmental impact of the TransCanada Corp project and failed to justify its decision granting a permit for the 1,200-mile long project designed to connect Canada’s tar sands crude oil with refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast. The ruling came in a lawsuit that several environmental groups filed against the U.S. government in 2017, soon after President Donald Trump announced a presidential permit for the project.



The judge, Brian Morris of the U.S. District Court in Montana, said President Trump’s State Department ignored crucial issues of climate change in order to further the president’s goal of letting the pipeline be built. In doing so, the administration ran afoul of the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires “reasoned” explanations for government decisions, particularly when they represent reversals of well-studied actions.

Morris wrote that a U.S. State Department environmental analysis “fell short of a ‘hard look’” at the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on Native American land resources. He also ruled the analysis failed to fully review the effects of the current oil price on the pipeline’s viability and did not fully model potential oil spills and offer mitigations measures.

However, the decision does not permanently block a pipeline permit. It requires the administration to conduct a more thorough review of potential adverse impacts related to climate change, cultural resources and endangered species. The court essentially ordered a do-over.

Morris, a former clerk to the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist, was appointed to the bench by President Obama.

* * *

The ruling is a victory for environmentalists, tribal groups and ranchers who have spent more than a decade fighting against construction of the pipeline that will carry heavy crude to Steele City, Nebraska, from Canada’s oilsands in Alberta.

“The Trump administration tried to force this dirty pipeline project on the American people, but they can’t ignore the threats it would pose to our clean water, our climate, and our communities,” said the Sierra Club, one of the environmental groups involved in the lawsuit, adding that “today’s ruling makes it clear once and for all that it’s time for TransCanada to give up on their Keystone XL pipe dream." The lawsuit prompting Thursday’s order was brought by a collection of opponents, including the indigenous Environmental Network and the Northern Plains Resource Council, a conservation coalition based in Montana.

On the other hand, the ruling was a major defeat for Trump, who attacked the Obama administration for stopping the project in the face of protests and an environmental impact study. Trump signed an executive order two days into his presidency setting in motion a course reversal on the Keystone XL pipeline as well as the Dakota Access pipeline.

In addition to the president, the ruling deals a major setback for TransCanada and could possibly delay the construction of the $8 billion, 1,180 mile (1,900 km) pipeline. It’s intended to be an extension of TransCanada’s existing Keystone pipeline, which was completed in 2013. Keystone XL (the initials stand for “export limited”) would transport up to 830,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta, Canada, and Montana to Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. In the U.S., the pipeline would stretch 875 miles through Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, with the rest continuing into Canada.

Trump supported building the pipeline, which was rejected by former President Barack Obama in 2015 on environmental concerns relating to emissions that cause climate change. Trump said the project would lower consumer fuel prices, create jobs and reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...udge-blocks-construction-keystone-xl-pipeline
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
North Korean Worker Accuses Dutch Shipbuilder of ‘Slave-Like Conditions’
November 8, 2018 by Reuters


Credit: Crist Shipyard



By Kieran Guilbert and Magdalena Mis LONDON, Nov 8 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – A North Korean labourer has filed a landmark criminal complaint against a Dutch shipbuilding company that allegedly profited from the abuse of workers in its supply chain in Poland and was aware of the “slave-like conditions”, lawyers said on Thursday.

A law firm representing the worker – who has not been named for his safety – has asked the Netherlands’ public prosecutor to file a case against a shipbuilder it says knowingly benefited by buying items that were cheaper due to the use of forced labour.

The legal action – revealed exclusively by the Thomson Reuters Foundation – could pile pressure on other companies in the Netherlands and beyond that profit from modern slavery in their global operations, according to lawyers and activists.

“Dutch law offers a unique provision which criminalizes the act of profiting from exploitation,” said Barbara van Straaten, a lawyer with Prakken d’Oliveira, a law firm in the Netherlands that specializes in human rights cases and filed the complaint.

“This opens the possibility to hold companies accountable which are not direct perpetrators in the labour exploitation, but which nonetheless knowingly profit,” van Straaten said.

The Dutch shipbuilder, which is not being named to avoid undermining a possible prosecution, employed Polish shipyard Crist SA despite knowing it subjected workers to “inhumane, slave-like conditions” to lower costs, the complaint alleged.

The worker behind the complaint said he endured 12-hour working days in unsafe conditions and had much of his earnings seized by the North Korean government, according to his lawyers.

Crist SA said it has never employed North Korean workers directly, but referred to a Polish staffing agency, Armex, which it said had “done some work” for the shipyard prior to 2016.

“We learned there was a possibility of irregularities in regards with employment of Armex workers (some of them were from North Korea) but we do not know the details,” a spokesman said.

“Without the time frame, the name of the ship building firm (the subject of the complaint), or the project name, we cannot give you specific information on the issue,” he said by email.

The North Korean embassy in Warsaw could not be reached for comment but has previously denied workers are deprived of pay.

LANDMARK COMPLAINT
The complaint marks the first time a case has been sought in the Netherlands over worker exploitation involving a Dutch firm committed outside the country, van Straaten said.

Under the country’s anti-trafficking law, offenders can be jailed for up to 18 years and fined 83,000 euros ($95,400).

The Netherlands’ prosecutor’s office said it had received the criminal complaint but did not disclose any further details.

Poland’s national labour inspectorate told the Thomson Reuters Foundation it found 29 North Koreans working at a Crist shipyard illegally in 2013 who were supplied by Armex yet had initially been employed by a company registered in North Korea.

The inspectorate did not say whether it took any action.

A search by the Thomson Reuters Foundation on Poland’s online National Court Register found that Armex went into liquidation last year, although the exact date is unclear.

“We allege this is a sham construction (the relationship between Crist and Armex) and that in fact the North Koreans were directly employed and instructed by Crist,” van Straaten said, adding that the complaint has evidence to support the claim.

Crist rejected the accusation as “false”, and said the shipyard has at least 1,000 workers from various subcontractors.

“To say that years ago we had the knowledge and possibility of controlling the way that Armex was handling its employees is absurd,” the spokesman said. “However … we as a company are obliged to comply with Polish and European employee law.”

‘STRONG MESSAGE’
Activists say North Korea sends tens of thousands of workers worldwide and takes their pay to earn foreign currency to offset the impact of U.N. sanctions over its nuclear weapons program.

Many work in Polish shipyards, construction sites and farms, but face widespread exploitation and send up to 90 percent of their salaries back to the hermit state, according to the European Alliance for Human Rights in North Korea (EAHRNK).

Poland issued nearly 3,000 work permits for North Korean workers between 2008 and 2016, according to the LeidenAsiaCentre, a research institution in the Netherlands which has linked dozens of Polish companies to their employment.

As the world strives to meet a U.N. global goal of ending modern slavery by 2030, businesses face growing regulatory and consumer pressure to ensure their supply chains are slave-free yet campaigners say companies are rarely penalized for abuses.

About 25 million people are estimated to be trapped in forced labour, from farms to factories, the United Nations says.

The severity of this case highlights significant gaps in labour protections within the European Union, and the lack of remedies available to exploited workers, the lawyers said.

“This legal action, targeting labour exploitation in supply chains, will send a strong message to multinational corporations,” said Gearoid O Cuinn, head of the Global Legal Action Network, a Britain-based charity backing the complaint.

“Profiting from forced labour entails serious legal risk.”

(Reporting by Kieran Guilbert and Magdalena Mis, Editing by Claire Cozens. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women’s and LGBT+ rights, human trafficking, property rights, and climate change. Visit http://news.trust.org)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

https://gcaptain.com/north-korean-worker-accuses-dutch-shipbuilder-of-slave-like-conditions/
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Asian Metals Market Update: Nov 9 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
A December interest rate hike is more or less a done deal. Chances of an interest rate hike in March next year will be high. All in all this is US dollar positive news. Gold and silver new investors will be waiting for more correction. Indian gold demand will be dependent on price trend. Right now the trend for gold price in India is down. The trend of the Indian rupee against the US dollar effects price more than anything else.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 9 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 9, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 9 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 9, 2018
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: 12-16, November 2018: Gold & Crude Oil Price Forecast
TheGoldAndSilverClub


Published on Nov 10, 2018
JOIN THE LIVE TRADING ROOM HERE ▶ http://www.jointhelivetradingroom.com/
▶ To Receive LIVE Trade Alerts, Mentorship & Expert Insights For Profitable Commodity Trading.

-------------------
The Gold & Silver Club is an international Commodities Trading, Research and Advisory Group specializing in the Metals, Energy and Agriculture markets.
Learn More ▶ https://www.thegoldandsilverclub.com/
--------------------

© 2018 The Gold & Silver Club Limited
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Weekly Market Update 11-10-2018
boubin2


Published on Nov 10, 2018
Uranium spot price now up 43% since May 2018 low. Don't discount just buying physical uranium. I also discuss the carnage in the oil markets and the reasons why the oil price has been in a recent waterfall collapse. What really happened?

Aviation Boom In India, Increae oil demand:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/airpo...
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Two Huge Events For The Pot Industry Happened Last Week: Here's What They Mean For Pot Stocks


by Tyler Durden
Sat, 11/10/2018 - 20:15


Two huge bullish events for the marijuana industry happened in just the last several days: 3 out of 4 US states passed marijuana legalization & cannabis opponent Jeff Sessions resigned as AG.

What does this mean for the marijuana market and stocks ahead? DataTrek's Jessica Rabe explains:

Three out of four ballot initiatives to legalize marijuana in some form passed in the US midterms this week. Michigan approved recreational marijuana, while Utah and Missouri voted in favor of medical marijuana; each proposal received +53-66% of voter support.

Sixty percent of residents in North Dakota voted against legalizing retail cannabis use, however. Here’s where they all stand:
  • Recreational marijuana: Michigan residents voted in favor of legalizing retail cannabis use and sales, making it the first Midwestern state and tenth US state to do so. Now one in five states allow recreational marijuana use, and a quarter of Americans (nearly 80 million people) live in a state where they can smoke or consume the drug if they’re of age.
    • How this will work: Recreational marijuana will be legal in Michigan ten days after the election results are certified, which could take a few weeks. That said, adults aged 21 and older living in Michigan will eventually be able buy, possess and use marijuana for recreational purposes. They will also be allowed to grow up to 12 plants in their home for personal use.
    • Sales won’t likely happen for a year as the state government needs to establish regulations and issue recreational licenses, although it has a head start since medical cannabis is already legal there. Once all that happens, retail sales of marijuana and edibles will be subject to a 10% excise tax that will go towards implementation costs, clinical trials, roads, schools, and general municipal expenses where marijuana businesses are located.
    • Lastly, although North Dakota rejected recreational use of marijuana, it still allows medical cannabis.
  • Medical marijuana: 33 states now allow medical cannabis after Utah and Missouri approved their measures to do so yesterday. Utah will let patients with certain conditions, such as multiple sclerosis, cancer and HIV get medical marijuana cards.
    • Out of 3 ballot initiatives that would legalize medical marijuana use in Missouri, voters chose Amendment 2. This measure will impose a 4% tax on sales of medical marijuana, which will pay for the program as well as help fund the state’s veterans commission.
  • Other election progress for marijuana: Chairman of the House Rules Committee Pete Sessions (Republican congressman from Texas) was defeated by Democrat Colin Allred. Sessions has blocked many federal amendments to protect legal marijuana at the state level, even those meant to allow VA doctors to recommend medical marijuana to veterans in states where it is legal. Allred, by contrast, criticized Sessions for this stance over the summer.
    • In addition, earlier this year Vermont’s legislature passed recreational use and residents in Oklahoma approved medical use. There are also other states going forward that could pass recreational use through the legislature, such as New Jersey and New York.
    • In New Jersey, the State Senate President and State Assembly Speaker said the legislature will vote on legalizing recreational marijuana by the end of this year. In New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo put together a workgroup to draft legislation for a regulated adult-use marijuana program in August. Given that the state legislature would need to pass the proposal, it should help that Democrats just won a majority in the New York State Senate. Especially since Governor Cuomo was re-elected and Democrats also have a majority in the state Assembly.
Arguably the biggest news of all on the marijuana front actually came with Attorney General Jeff Sessions submitting his resignation. He is a staunch opponent of marijuana and rescinded important memos put in place under the Obama administration to not interfere with legal states so that marijuana businesses could have banking access if they followed certain rules. This move caused a lot of concern and uncertainty for an already cautious industry. While pot stocks gave up their early gains from the election results, they rallied right after this news into the close on the Sessions news: Canopy Growth (+8.17%), Tilray (+30.64%), Cronos Group (+8.40%), Aurora Cannabis (+9.19%) and Aphria (+3.93%). Who knows who will permanently replace Jeff Sessions, but few are more against the drug than him.

Bottom line, momentum on marijuana legalization continues to strengthen, especially with support from two-thirds of Americans which is the highest ever recorded according to Gallup. Every state that legalizes adult use of marijuana is one more step towards national legalization, something many investors have been waiting for given their caution as the drug is still illegal federally. Jeff Sessions out is another cherry on top of the sundae.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...d-last-week-what-they-mean-marijuana-industry
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
Bacon Tax: Oxford researchers call to increase meat price to save thousands of lives annually
RT


Published on Nov 11, 2018
The beloved English breakfast could be facing a price hike if researchers from Oxford University get their way. They're suggesting to almost double the taxes on bacon and sausages to combat people eating too much meat.
 

searcher

Mother Lode Found
Sr Site Supporter
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
180,490
Likes
43,595
farm talk november 11 2018
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Nov 11, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.