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FWIW...………..dyodd.

Can the Gold Standard Fix Our Financial Crisis?
Silver Slayer


Published on Nov 11, 2018
This video explains the Gold Standard & if i think it could work in todays economy. I also show a 1 minute video about the Gold Standard to break it down easier for people just learning about it. If you found this video helpful or entertaining make sure to give it a thumbs up and subscribe for more content like this!
 

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Legal Plunder Is Par for the Course for the Bank of England.
maneco64


Published on Nov 12, 2018
 

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Futures Slide Amid Euro, Cable Rout; Dollar Soars To 2018 High


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/12/2018 - 07:07


Stocks reversed earlier gains, turning lower in Europe as U.S. futures pared as many as 20 points of upside in overnight trading before turning lower on Monday, following a mixed session across most of Asia as investors weighed the outlook for equities after a roller coaster few weeks. Volumes were subdued with many banks closed for Veteran's Day in the US. Futures on the Nasdaq were flat after large-cap tech shares on Friday dragged the gauge down 1.7%.



Europe saw a sharp selloff in both the EUR and GBP this morning, with the EURUSD breaching 1.1300 to the downside, the lowest print since July 2017 as Brexit deal momentum once again faded, while the Italian budget negotiation failed to make progress ahead of another looming deadline.



For the euro, Italy was the main focus, with Rome facing a Tuesday deadline to submit a revised budget to the EU, though it has so far refused to cut the draft budget deficit, setting the stage for a collision with Brussels. Bernd Berg, strategist at Woodman Asset Management, predicted the euro would tumble below $1.10 from the current $1.126 “as renewed eurozone and Brexit angst and a diverging economic outlook with a strong U.S. economy versus a weakening eurozone economy will trigger further euro selling pressure.”

The drop in Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was led by household goods and real estate shares. Major European indices were mixed, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperformed thanks to the weaker pound and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil.

Italian bonds fell ahead of supply and the government’s deadline to resubmit its 2019 budget on Tuesday where there appeared to be no progress, while Bunds follow gilts higher on a lack of progress in the Brexit talks; The 10y spread to Germany widened 4bps to 303bps while Bund gains were spurred by gilts, which outperform by 3bps as the latest Brexit impasse lowers the chances of a BOE rate hike before November 2019, even as the next 25bps BOE hike remains fully priced in for November 2019.

Markets were also spooked by reports that Banca Carige would need around 400 million euros ($451 million) to plug a hole in its capital base and Italy’s deposit protection fund could fill only part of it. CRG.IM was halted, limit down as a result.



That raises the specter of a banking crisis in the euro zone’s third-biggest economy, keeping Italy’s bond yield spread over Germany - the risk premium attached to Italian assets - around the psychologically key 300 basis-point mark. Italian bank shares fell 0.6 percent

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia equities index also dropped, though shares in Japan and Hong Kong finished in a tight range, while Chinese stocks - for once - bucked the trend closing 1.2% higher. While Shanghai was lifted over one percent by regulators’ promise to simplify share buybacks, MSCI’s world equity index was down 0.3% and Asian markets broadly weakened following Friday’s weak Wall Street close.

China closed in the green even as investors fretted about signs of slowing growth in China where e-commerce giant Alibaba was the latest to raise alarm bells, with the slowest ever annual sales growth during its Singles Day shopping event.

Australia's ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. As noted earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales (if slowing, as noted above).

With Asia mixed and European risk assets sliding, the Bloomberg dollar index printed fresh YTD highs: “King dollar has staged a return,” Credit Agricole's FX strategist Valentin Marinov said, adding that investors had piled back into the dollar after last week’s Fed meeting confirmed a rate-tightening path. "Euro and pound are both hurt by political risk and that is aggravating underperformance versus the dollar,” Marinov added.



Speculators’ net long dollar positions rose last week to the highest since January 2016, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

The pound slumped, dropping below $1.29 for the first time in more than a week following a report that four more U.K. government ministers are on the brink of resigning over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans, and that May was forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit agreement, the Independent news website reported, stoking fears that the government might not be able to secure a deal that satisfied both the European Union and members of the ruling party.

The opposition Labour Party said that if May’s Brexit deal was voted down in parliament, it would push for a national election and possibly also another referendum. The latest futures data showed net short sterling positions registered their biggest weekly rise in 1-1/2 months. Deutsche Bank analysts, however, predicted more pain, telling clients: “not enough risk is priced into sterling given the parliamentary problems ahead”.

The other big move was in commodities, where Saudi Arabia’s energy minister took some pressure off last week’s oil price drop, saying on Sunday that Riyadh could reduce supply to world markets by 500,000 barrels per day in December, a global reduction of about 0.5 percent. That jolted Brent crude futures up more than 2% to a high of $71.88 per barrel. However, the supply cut may prove to be a temporary solution to falling prices as global growth slows, with two of the world’s biggest economies - Germany and Japan - expected to report a contraction in output in coming days. “Supply-side surprises appear to be the main culprit, but concern that global demand is slowing may also be creeping into markets and weighing on risk appetite,” the ANZ analysts said.

Looking ahead, Treasuries aren’t trading due to Veterans’ Day holiday. UGI Corp. and AXA Equitable are among scheduled earnings

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,778.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 364.86
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 151.66
  • MXAPJ down 0.5% to 481.78
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 22,269.88
  • Topix down 0.06% to 1,671.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 25,633.18
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 2,630.52
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 34,867.39
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,941.30
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,080.44
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.387%
  • Euro down 0.7% to $1.1256
  • Brent Futures up 1.2% to $71.05/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.033%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.586%
  • Brent Futures up 1.3% to $71.06/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,207.13
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 97.47
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • As well as increasing domestic pressure on May to ditch her Brexit plan or face defeat in Parliament, EU ministers in Brussels on Monday didn’t fix a specific date for an extraordinary summit. There’s still a need for more clarity from the U.K. before the bloc’s leaders convene to sign off a deal, an EU official said
  • Saudi Arabia expressed the need for oil producers to cut 1 million barrels a day from October levels and announced fewer shipments from next month, as OPEC and its allies began laying the groundwork to reduce oil supply in 2019, reversing an almost year-long expansion
  • China signaled tougher management of the yuan, dropping a phrase underlining the importance of market forces from a key policy report for the first time in five years
  • The most destructive series of wildfires in California history have killed at least 31 people and forced tens of thousands more to evacuate, officials said, as firefighters struggled to gain control in swirling winds
  • President Donald Trump left World War I commemorations in France after a weekend that exposed tensions with U.S. allies in Europe over his decision to pull out of the 1987 Intermediate- range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. By the time he flew home on Sunday he appeared isolated and, by some, scorned
Asian equity markets eventually traded mixed but with gains limited as some cautiousness lingered from the uninspiring performance on Wall St last Friday, where ongoing global growth concerns and continued declines in commodities weighed on sentiment. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with price action contained as pressure from the improvement in regional sentiment was counterbalanced by the BoJ presence in the market.

Top Asia News
  • SoftBank to Raise $21 Billion in Wireless IPO to Invest More
  • Pilot Grounded Before Delhi-London Flight for Failing Booze Test
  • China’s LVMH Wannabe to Slow M&A After $4 Billion Spree
Major European indices have turned lower, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) is outperforming amid currency effects and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil. In terms of individual equities, Telecom Italia (+4.6%) are leading the Stoxx 600 after reports in Italian press that the Italian government are pushing a fibre deal with the Co. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (+3.4%) rose to the top of the UK benchmark following the completion of a share-buyback programme.

Top European News
  • Merkel Bid to Make Germany Inc. World Champion Hits EU Snags
  • Italy’s Industry Output Drop Makes It Harder to Convince EU
  • Hedge Fund Wins as European Luxury Goods Hit a Wall in China
  • Cerberus Plans to Buy Spain’s Altamira, Solvia: Expansion
In FX, the Dollar is firmly back in the ascendency, albeit partly due to underperformance in major counterparts due to specific bearish factors. However, the DXY has extended recovery gains beyond 97.000 and through its previous ytd peak to top out just shy of 97.600 at 97.583, with bulls now eyeing relatively strong Fib resistance around 97.871 ahead of 98.000.

  • GBP - More Brexit-related weakness in Sterling has tipped Cable through another big figure, and just under 1.2850 at one stage, while Eur/Gbp has rebounded further from recent sub-0.8700 lows towards 0.8775 on latest threats of revolt within the UK Government and time running out fast to reach a withdrawal deal with the EU. From a technical perspective, nearest support in Cable comes in around 1.2810, which coincides with a Fib and decent option expiry interest.
  • EUR - The single currency is also under considerable pressure, and after triggering stops at 1.1300 vs the Greenback, losses accumulated quickly to 1.1250 where hefty bids stalled further downside for a while. The catalyst, ongoing Italian-EU budget angst ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for the Government to resubmit a fiscal plan, and another meeting between key Roman officials later today. Note also, 1.1 bn option expiries roll off at the 1.1250 strike, with the same size capping any rebounds to 1.1300.
  • CHF/AUD - Both around 0.4-0.45% weaker vs a generally bid Usd, with the France testing 1.1000 and Aud back below 0.7200 amidst renewed weakness in the Yuan.
  • NZD - The Kiwi is holding up moderately better than its antipodean peer, as Nzd/Usd maintains 0.6700+ status (just) and the Aud/Nzd cross retests support/bids around 1.0700.
  • CAD/JPY - Relative outperformers, or at least keeping pace with the Usd as the Loonie pivots 1.3200 and derives underlying support from a rebound in oil prices, while the latter pares losses from circa 114.20 to just above 114.00 due to its greater safe-haven allure.
  • EM - Broad declines in regional currencies vs the resurgent Dollar, but with Usd/Try slipping back from 5.5000+ levels in wake of Turkish current account data revealing another y/y improvement.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+1.0%) bounced back with a vengeance as markets had the first opportunity to digest developments from the JMMC meeting during the weekend. The complex was on track for the longest losing streak since 1984, before Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih said the kingdom plans to reduce oil supply by 500K BPD in December due to a seasonal demand decline. Meanwhile, the JMMC decided not to take decisions on market adjustments on Sunday, with UAE’s Energy Minister noting that 2019 will require a change in OPEC strategy, adding that the new strategy is definitely not going to involve hiking output. Furthermore, in early European trade, the Kuwaiti Oil Minister stated that oil exporters discussed some kind of supply cut for next year but no volume was mentioned. Note: weekly API and DoE inventory data have been pushed back by a day due to US Veterans’ day. Elsewhere, gold (-0.1%) fell to levels last seen in mid-October as the yellow metal tracked USD moves with the DXY reaching new YTD highs in early European trade. Meanwhile, copper is taking a breather from the recent sell-off and nickel extended losses to hit 11-month lows, pressured by concerns of slowing Chinese demand for steel. At the weekend JMMC meeting, the committee decided not to take decisions on market adjustment, while Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih said it is too premature for OPEC to discuss production cuts but stated that Saudi will reduce oil supply by 500k bpd in December amid seasonal decline in demand.

US Event Calendar
  • Nothing major scheduled due to Veterans' Day holiday
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to a new week and one where Brexit seems likely to grab a disproportional amount of the headlines. As I was scouring the weekend papers for news on this bewildering subject I stumbled across an article that innocently said that the British and the Irish are the top two countries in the EU for the percentage of the population that drink alcohol least once a week. It felt quite apt given the current situation. Also in the same Eurostat survey it suggested that the Dutch are the least likely to eat fruit and veg every day which given how tall they are perhaps dispels the myth that you need them! The Italians are one of the worst for amounts of exercise (Scandis generally the best) but they have the skinniest population. If anyone in Italy can give me the secret of that equation I’d be delighted to hear it. It must be the Mediterranean diet!

Talking of Brexit and Italy, two of the main highlights for this week are likely to be the increasingly cul-de-sac Brexit scenarios being wrestled and the deadline for Italy to respond to the EU’s budget deficit demands tomorrow. Data-wise we have CPI reports in the US and Europe as well as Q3 GDP in the latter. Also worth watching is Oil which is in the midst of what is currently a record (daily data to 1983) 10-day successive slump in price. After an OPEC get together yesterday Saudi Arabia signaled that it will reduce oil exports by as much as half a million barrels a day in December as producers increasingly worry about oversupply in 2019. It’ll be interesting if they can persuade others to join them ahead of next month’s semi-annual full gathering. Oil prices (Brent +1.68% and WTI +1.21%) are up this morning on the back of this news. Can it finally close higher today and buck the two week trend?

Brexit feels like its entering a crucial stretch and Friday was a bad day for the UK government with the weekend headlines not offering much additional joy. Pro-remain Tory MP Jo Johnson resigned and suggested he wouldn’t support the deal in its current form. The arithmetic around any deal passing through Parliament was already challenging enough without losing pro-remain Conservatives. The weekend media suggests there could be others refusing to vote in favor along those lines with the Sunday Times suggesting four such proremain Government resignations are possible. Basically the deal as it stands is being criticized by both remain and leave Conservatives and also by the DUP.

Meanwhile the Labour Party opposition is highly unlikely to vote for it. So a deal being reached with the EU still seems the easy part of the equation. Sterling is down -0.5% in Asia this morning after falling -0.67% on Friday with virtually all of it after the resignation. As a reminder the DB house view is that not enough risk is priced into sterling given the Parliamentary problems ahead.

Cabinet ministers have apparently been seeing the proposed text of the deal with the EU over the last few days (seemingly without the Irish section not yet available) and if PM May can win their approval we could see a formal cabinet meeting early this week to formalize the deal before May makes a statement to the House of Commons. The situation is extremely fluid however especially with the increased backlash internally within the government and with the Irish border issue still outstanding. So these dates could easily (and seem likely to us to) be pushed back. How we get out of this cul-de-sac is very unclear.

Moving onto Italy, the government is due to present its new 2019 budget to the EU by tomorrow after being ask to resubmit. That said, Italy has reiterated that it won’t change its 2.4% deficit target for 2019 so it’s not clear what will change.

As for US CPI on Wednesday the consensus is for yet another +0.2% mom core reading - the 37th month in a row with such a forecast. The annual rate should however hold at +2.2% yoy – a level that the Fed should feel comfortable with and not change path. In Europe we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany (Tuesday), France, Spain and UK (Wednesday), and the broader Euro Area (Friday). A first look at Q3 GDP in Europe and Germany (Wednesday) will also be worth a close watch. The rest of the week ahead is at the end.

This morning in Asia, markets have started the week with a mixed note with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both trading flat, Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) is up while the Kospi (-0.3%) is down. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (+0.4%) are pointing towards a positive start. It is worth noting that today is Veterans Day in the US. The US equity market will remain open but there is a recommended full market close for the Treasury market.

Global equities were mixed last week, with US indexes mostly advancing after the US elections but emerging markets underperforming. The DOW led gains and had its best week since March, rallying +2.84% (-0.77% on Friday though), while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained +2.11% and +1.06% (-0.94% and -1.67% Friday) respectively. The NYFANG index fell -1.35% (-1.77% Friday) as tech continues to underperform. In Europe, the STOXX 600 advanced +0.46% (-0.37% Friday), though sectors exposed to China lagged with autos and basic resources down -4.38% and -2.21% (-1.89% and -3.41% Friday) respectively. EM equities fell -2.50% overall (-1.85% Friday) while indices in China underperformed with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite retreating -3.34% and -2.90% (-2.39% and -1.39% Friday) respectively. In fixed income, 10-year Treasuries touched a new 8-year high of 3.237% before retracing slightly, ending the week -2.7bps lower (-5.2bps Friday) at 3.182% while Bunds remained in their recent range and fell -2.1bps on the week (-5.0bps Friday).

The US granting of Iran sanctions waivers to eight countries was a big development last week. They will be able to continue importing limited quantities of oil from Iran without running afoul of US laws, boosting the global supply of oil. WTI crude oil prices slid -5.21% (-1.35% Friday), for their tenth consecutive daily loss, the longest such streak on record with daily data going back to 1983. Brent fell -4.30% in unison (-1.34% Friday) though the spread between the two contracts remains near recent wides around $9.85 per barrel.

With it being Veterans Day in the US (US stock market open but bond market is closed), it's a quiet start to the week. In Europe, we get France's October Bank of France industry sentiment index. There is no data of note in the US. Away from this, the Fed's Daly is due to speak on the economic outlook while the ECB's Lautenschlaeger, de Guindos and Nouy are also scheduled to speak. EU general-affairs ministers will discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations followed by a press briefing from the EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier. The EC President Juncker will give opening remarks at an economic conference on “Where is Europe headed?”

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-12/futures-slide-amid-euro-cable-rout-dollar-soars-2018-high
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: Nov 12 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Gold needs to trade over $1205 to prevent a crash. Silver needs to trade over $1402 to prevent a crash. Direction of the US dollar will be the key. Crude oil should rise as oil producing nations prepare for oil production cuts. It seems crude oil producing nations want the average nymex crude oil price to be over $66.
 

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Amazon chooses New York City and Northern Virginia for its second headquarters which will be split over two locations

  • Amazon has chosen two locations for its second headquarters which will be based in New York City and Northern Virginia
  • The online retail giant will announce a significant investment in another city
  • A site in Queens and one in Crystal City are thought to be the preferred locations
  • A major announcement is expected to be made by the company later today
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rk-Northern-Virginia-second-headquarters.html
 

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Nuisance robocalls have reached 'epidemic levels' says spam blocking expert - as some admit it's got so bad they don't answer their phone anymore

  • 'Robocalls' offering health care plans have surged as enrollment period begins
  • A company blocked more than 850,000 health-related robocalls in October
  • A robocall uses a computerized autodialer to deliver a pre-recorded message
  • Advocates warn that many offer health plans that do not provide adequate cover
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rded-messages-people-surged-recent-weeks.html
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 12 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 12, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 12 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 12, 2018
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: Nov 13 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Collapse of global stock markets can result in all metals and energies falling. Reason: Liquidity. Nervous investors will prefer to sit on cash. The continuous zoom up and nosedive pattern of global stock markets and currency markets will prevent retail investors from investing as well as trading. They will just use sharp rises to exit their investment and nothing else.
 

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Will the BIS Save Goldman Sachs?
maneco64


Published on Nov 13, 2018
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Tuesday, 13th November 2018
Share Talk


Published on Nov 13, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

Clontarf (CLON)
JKX Oil & Gas (JKX)
Oilex (OEX)
President Enrgy (PPC)
Powerhouse Ener (PHE)
Techfinancials (TECH)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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Global Markets Rebound On Renewed Trade Hopes, Oil Slides For Record 12th Day


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/13/2018 - 07:12


After Monday's vicious Veteran's Day selloff, which took place with the cash bond market closed, world markets have regained their footing as European stocks and S&P 500 futures are higher, recovering some of the previous session’s losses on renewed hopes (how many times have we heard this) for progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute following a report that China's vice premier Liu He will meet with Steven Mnuchin in Washington, even as Asian shares dropped overall, led by Japan's 2.1% slide as tech stocks were hit on iPhone demand fears.



Europe's Stoxx 600 Index rose for the first time in three days, with telecoms leading the way after Vodafone announced better than expected quarterly results, although the index was off its earlier highs. Contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all firmer, and after sliding as low as 2,720 on Monday, S&P futures were 0.6% higher.



Focusing on Europe, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. No material changes are expected. According to Deutsche Bank, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now any grand bargain is far away.

Earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.



Other Asian indexes fared less well, and slid with Apple suppliers under pressure after the iPhone maker fell on signs of a deteriorating sales outlook. Meanwhile, underwhelming Chinese new loan data, ongoing Brexit concerns and Italian jitters have tempered enthusiasm. Germany's DAX outperforms peers this morning, while Italy's FTSE MIB traded mixed ahead of today's budget proposal deadline while local Italian banks are managing small gains.

Even as risk assets enjoyed a modest rebound, the commodity rout continued as WTI fell for a twelfth day, the longest losing streak on record after Trump criticized top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut output, and was headed for its lowest close of 2018.



Treasuries climbed while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from an 18-month high as traders took profit on the greenback. The yen reversed to a loss as risk appetite slowly grew. The Britain’s pound pared some losses from the past three days after Prime Minister Theresa May said talks with the European Union were in the “endgame” and data showing U.K. wage growth accelerated.

Elsewhere, the euro recovered from its weakest against the dollar since June 2017, with Italy due to resubmit its budget. The country’s bonds pared some losses after a debt auction. Emerging market equities and currencies were steady.

In a curious development overnight, major state-owned Chinese banks were seen selling dollars at around 6.97 per dollar in the onshore spot foreign exchange market in early trade on Tuesday, traders told newswires in the latest attempt by Beijing to arrest sharp losses in the local currency. The onshore spot market opened at 6.9681 per dollar, weakening to a low of 6.9703 at one point in early deals. “Big banks were selling (dollars) to defend the yuan,” said one of the traders. Traders suspect the authorities are keen to prevent the yuan from weakening too sharply before U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping’s meeting later this month.



So is the selling over for now? With trade worries hanging over markets for months and clouding the economic outlook, the Liu He came at an appropriate time, while comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Singapore Tuesday hinted at a more optimistic outlook; even so sentiment remains fragile as the Fed prepares to hike rates in just over a month.

“We always talk about that proverbial wall of worry and that wall right now is pretty high,” David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We have the issues in China with the growth concerns there, we have the issues in Europe with the battle between Italy and the EU, the U.K. getting ready for Brexit. There is some guidance lower on earnings, and a Federal Reserve that is going to raise rates.”

In other news, Bloomberg reported that the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House which are undergoing interagency review and are sign of US administration's increasing frustration at EU and Japan over lack of progress on auto trade issues, while the Section 232 recommendations will be discussed at White House trade meeting on Tuesday.

In the latest Brexit news, PM May said Brexit talks are now reaching their "endgame" and that both sides working hard to reach an agreement but added that significant issues still remain and that the government will not accept a deal at any cost. Furthermore, there were reports that UK PM May had rejected the latest draft Brexit deal with the EU as it didn’t provide a clear exit from the customs union if the EU began acting in bad faith in discussions regarding a future trade agreement.

Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism and monthly budget statement. Home Depot and Tyson are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,737.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.03
  • MXAP down 1% to 150.18
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 480.47
  • Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,810.52
  • Topix down 2% to 1,638.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 25,792.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,654.88
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 35,083.73
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 5,834.23
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 2,071.23
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.395%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $69.21/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 3.066%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.607%
  • Brent futures down 2.2% to $68.57/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,197.54
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.63
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He have resumed talks on trade, and a potential Washington visit by Liu is being considered before the nations’ top leaders meet later this month
  • Goldman Sachs downward slide on a multibillion-dollar Malaysian fraud culminated Monday with Goldman’s shares having their biggest drop since 2011
  • President Donald Trump’s hardening line on immigration sets him on a collision course with House Democrats that is likely to shape the next presidential campaign.
  • Brexit negotiators are working through the night in an effort to reach a deal, but the final stage of the talks is proving “immensely difficult,” U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said
  • Italy’s government may offer the European Commission a minor concession when it resubmits its budget after an unprecedented rejection last month
  • Major suppliers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone fell Tuesday as investors fretted that one of the most important product lines in the technology sector was seeing weak demand
Major Asian equity markets mostly followed suit to the sell-off on Wall Street where tech led the declines after Apple shares dropped 5% following an outlook cut by supplier Lumentum Holdings and with energy names hit again after oil posted an 11th consecutive decline. ASX 200 (-1.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) weakened from the open with the tech sector the underperformer in the region as another Apple supplier Japan Display reported a loss for H1 and downgraded its outlook. Furthermore, Japanese exporters suffered from recent flows into the JPY and large automakers were pressured after the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially supported as the broad risk averse tone spurred a flight to safety, but then failed to hold on to the marginal gains as prices mirrored a pullback in T-notes despite stronger 30yr auction results.

Top Asian News
  • Semen Indonesia Buys LafargeHolcim Arm in $1.75 Billion Deal
  • MUFG Chief Warns on Outlook Even After Raising Profit Target
  • Hong Kong’s World-Beating IPO Market Starts to Show Cracks
  • China’s Credit Growth Slumped in October as Debt Sales Slowed
All major European indices are in the green, with the DAX (+0.6%) out in front, led by the likes of Lufthansa (+2.4%) who are benefiting from lower oil prices and Bayer (+0.3%) who presented an increase in earnings and confirmed their outlook. FTSE MIB (-0.3%) is lagging its peers weighed on by Telecom Italia (-1.4%) who removed their CEO to the dismay of Vivendi (23.9% shareholder). Italian financial names are also softer ahead of today’s budget re-submission deadline. Sectors are predominantly higher with outperformance in Telecoms post-earnings from Vodafone (+9.0%). Energy names lag, in-fitting with price action in the complex. Regarding individual equities, BTG (+9.2%) are leading the Euro Stoxx 600 after presenting an increase in half year revenue and operating profit. Elior Group (+8.0%) are off best levels but remain supported by news that they have hired advisors to initiate the sale of their catering business. Babcock (-2.5%) are under scrutiny from the Ministry of Defence over their handling of a contract relating to the UK’s Trident Submarines.

Top European News
  • U.K. Wages Rise Most Since 2008 Amid Tight Labor Market
  • Nyrstar Plunges on Growing Speculation of Debt Restructuring
  • Italy’s Carige Thrown $360 Million Lifeline by Other Banks
In FX, An almost clear and defining line between the ‘so called’ risk or high beta/yield currencies vs safer-havens, as US-China trade tensions ease somewhat amidst reports of constructive discussions between key officials, while the YUAN also pares some losses with the aid of intervention via local banks overnight (said to have been defending 6.9700 vs the Usd).

Hence, the DXY and broad Dollar are off Monday’s peaks, with the latter only maintaining gains/positive momentum vs the JPY above 114.00 and CHF (to a lesser degree) over 1.0100. However, the index remains underpinned around the 97.500 mark and still poised to build on yesterday’s new ytd high at 97.704 given high levels of ongoing uncertainty and global risks, with only one major chart hurdle seen ahead of 98.000 (97.871 Fib resistance).

NZD/AUD - Outperforming on the aforementioned US-China ‘understanding’, with the Kiwi staying within striking distance of 0.6750 and the latter not far from 0.7200, but perhaps capped by mega option expiry interest at the strike (1.6 bn), while still feeling the adverse effects of bearish cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd inches further below 1.0700.

GBP/EUR/CAD - All holding up relatively well, or at least consolidating off worst levels, with the Pound retesting 1.2900 vs the Greenback and 0.8700 vs the single currency on hopes if not high expectations of a Brexit breakthrough in time before tomorrow’s deadline. Note, some independent support from Sterling via firm UK wage data, but limited. The Eur is just keeping its head above 1.1200 vs the Usd awaiting Italy’s budget resubmission to the EU that is widely expected to reveal a concession or compromise, but no white flag. Option barriers at the big figure are underpinning the headline pair, though by the same token 1 bn expiry interest at 1.1250 are also keeping upside attempts in check. Looking at the Loonie, only fleeting intraday recoveries in oil prices are keeping the commodity unit pressured and it is struggling to stem losses beyond 1.3250.

In commodities, WTI (-2.2%) and Brent (-2.1%) are in the red after a failed intervention by US President Trump who tweeted that oil prices should be lower, and he hopes Saudi and OPEC do not cut oil production. Note, the monthly OPEC report to be published today at 1115GMT. Gold (+0.1%) is marginally up after reaching 16-month highs yesterday. Of note, traders are gathering in Shanghai for Asia Copper Week, as copper prices have fallen by approximately 17% this year, on track for their worst year since 2015. Intra-day, copper and other metals have moved higher following reports that Liu He, China’s top trade negotiator, may visit Washington in preparation for Trump Xi talks.

OPEC monthly report: OPEC crude production rose 127k bpd in October to average 32.9mln bpd, according to secondary sources. Crude oil output increased mostly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola, while production declined in IR Iran, Venezuela, Kuwait and Nigeria. In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.5mln bpd, a downward revision of 40k bpd from last month’s projection. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.29mln bpd, a minor downward adjustment of 70k bpd from the previous month’s assessment.

In terms of the day ahead, the November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. Today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.

US Event Calendar
  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 108, prior 107.9
  • 10am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Conference on Immigration
  • 10am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on AI and the New Financial Landscape
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $100.0b deficit, prior $63.2b deficit
  • 2:20pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Fintech Conference
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
In this morning’s FT, DB’s Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau has penned a hard hitting op-ed on Italy. The crux of the argument is that Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy and that another costly sovereign debt crisis is inevitable unless the confrontational approach of the EC gives way to greater co-operation. Italy has actually been a frugal member of the single currency with a cumulative primary surplus every year outside of the GFC. However, these surpluses have simply helped finance the interest on the legacy debt and debt/GDP has still climbed. Meanwhile, the associated spending cuts and austerity required to run a primary surplus have lowered the standard of living for the population and led us to the political situation we find ourselves at today.

To cut a long story short the grand bargain is in effect the ESM firepower helping to substantially lower Italy’s funding costs, allow for more public expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) in return for Italy undergoing structural reforms. A copy of the unabridged op-ed can be found here or in today’s FT.

Interestingly, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. We expect no material changes. Our economists yesterday published a piece ( link ) looking at the next steps and conclude that, as contagion has been limited for now, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now we’re far away from the grand bargain our Chief Economist thinks will eventually be needed.

As well as Italy it feels like there’s a lot to report today, which is not usually the case after a US holiday. Indeed those handful of Monday US holidays each year are usually an excuse for us to have an extra 10-15 minutes lie in the morning safe in the knowledge that not much will have happened the day before. However, the alarm clock was actually set a bit earlier this morning after a difficult start to the week, including a further slump for the once biggest company in the world, and a continuation of the recent under-performance in many of the current largest companies in the world within the tech sector.

To recap, Veteran’s Day thin equity trading saw the NASDAQ (-2.78%) and NYSE FANG (-4.11%) indices leading the declines followed closely by the S&P 500 (-1.97%), DOW (-2.32%) and Russell 2000 (-1.98%). Amazingly that is the 9th time this year the big 3 bourses (NASDAQ, S&P 500 and DOW) have fallen at least -1.90% on the same day. It didn’t happen in 2017, and only happened 11 times in 2015 and 2016 combined. The VIX also climbed just over 3pts yesterday to edge back above 20. The tech sector was clearly at the heart of yesterday’s selloff with a -5.04% decline for Apple, sparked by big falls for the company’s suppliers on the back of demand concerns. Apple’s share price is now back below $200 after spending 72 consecutive trading days above that level.

That move for Apple resulted in the small matter of $49bn of value being wiped from the company. By comparison General Electric lost just over $5bn yesterday but it was arguably the bigger headline grabber. Indeed the shares slumped -6.88% (-10.02% at the lows) after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage. Shares hit levels first seen in 1995 yesterday and have only been lower since, very briefly, during the financial crisis.

For a bit of perspective, the market cap of GE now is $69.5bn and it’s the 80th largest company in the S&P 500. Go back to August 2003 and it was the largest company in the index (and regularly the world between 1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn, with $12bn of daylight to Microsoft in second place. The tech giant has since grown to be a $826bn company well over 10 times the size. GE’s market cap actually peaked in August 2000 at $594bn before tumbling first in the tech crash and then the GFC.

In credit GE is a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices. It’s recently been downgraded into the BBB bucket but as recently as September was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG. This problem for GE has come at an interesting time as much discussion in recent months has been about BBBs as a % of the size of the HY market. According to Nick Burns in my team, post the downgrades of the automakers in 2005, US BBBs fell to 99% of the size of the HY market from a peak of 170% in 2001.

Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. It’s more difficult to compare EU BBBs to HY given the infancy of the EUR HY market pre-2004. But from a low of 219% BBBs have grown to 340% of EUR HY. So large BBB companies with a deteriorating credit story are prone to additional widening pressure as investors fear the risks of an eventual downgrade to HY and a swamping of paper into that market. This isn’t helping GE at the moment and may be a dress rehearsal for what happens for weaker and large BBB issuers in the next recession.

Brexit headlines were slightly overshadowed but make no mistake, we are getting to the point when binary outcomes are coming closer. Up until the end of last week I thought we’d get a deal agreed this week and then Parliament would be 50/50 as to whether they’d vote in favour of it. However, since last Friday if you've read all the relevant UK press articles its been hard to find much enthusiasm for the expected deal from anyone on any side of the debate within Parliament. At this stage I’m not sure I know what plan B is? Will this be a repeat of TARP back in 2008 and Parliament requires two goes at it? Problem with this is that it’s not clear that the EU is going to offer anything different on a second run at it. In terms of trading, the pound originally pared losses in the early afternoon yesterday as the EU’s Barnier confirmed yesterday that although an agreement had still not been reached the main elements of an exit treaty are ready to present to the UK cabinet according to the FT. Sterling gave up the Barnier related gains on the below Buzzfeed news and fell -0.93% on the day.

This news was that Brexit secretary Raab is leading some cabinet ministers towards telling Mrs May that the EU offer on the table is unacceptable. Mrs May herself last night said talks were “in the endgame”. The general view is that unless we have a deal by the end of tomorrow, the November EU summit is unlikely. As we know a deal is pretty much on the table however the issue remains whether or not the UK can run with it first based on whether the cabinet will accept it and secondly whether Parliament can. At the moment we are struggling to get past the first hurdle let alone the second. There was supposed to be a cabinet meeting on Brexit today but its status has been played down.


This morning in Asia, markets outside of China/HK are weak but off the lows of the session. The Nikkei (-2.19%), and Kospi (-0.46%) are all down along with most Asian markets but after opening equally weak the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) are rallying hard from the lows. More positive trade noises from US VP Pence and Chinese officials in the last hour have helped. Sentiment didn’t start well though as last night Bloomberg reported that the White House is circulating a draft report by the US Commerce Department over whether to impose tariffs on automobile imports to protect national security while adding that the President Trump is scheduled to meet with senior members of his trade team today to discuss how to proceed on potential tariffs.

Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.44%) are pointing towards a more positive start and as an interesting aside the BoJ’s asset holding are now (JPY 553.6 tn) greater than Japan’s nominal GDP (JPY 552.8tn as of end June). To put this in perspective the Fed’s assets are about 20% of US GDP, while the ECB’s holdings are equal to around 40% of the euro-zone economy.

This US and Asian weakness follows on from earlier yesterday where Europe also struggled. The STOXX 600 ended the day down -1.01% with the tech sector sinking -3.66%. The DAX (-1.77%) fell even more and it’s amazing that it’s ahead of the FTSE MIB for one of the biggest total return declines in Europe this year of the main bourses (-12.33% vs. -10.37% respectively). Remarkable given that they are probably at the extreme ends economically within Europe. Even oil couldn’t eke out a gain after being up after Asia closed post the Saudi production cut story from Sunday. President Trump’s tweet criticising Saudi Arabia’s planned production cut weighed on prices late in the US session. By the close a near -3% fall had added to what is now an 11-day successive slump, extending the record run we discussed yesterday with data back to 1983.

Elsewhere bond markets in Europe (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day) were quiet with Bunds -0.9bps lower in yield and BTPs +3.5bps higher.

In terms of the day ahead, shortly after this hits your emails we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany. Soon after that we’ll get the preliminary Q3 wages data in France before the focus turns to here in the UK with the September and October employment stats. The November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. As noted above, today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...enewed-trade-hopes-oil-slides-record-12th-day
 

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Here Is How Walmart Plans To Seize Further Control Of Your Community


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/13/2018 - 05:25

At the most recent International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) conference in Atlanta, Walmart announced new plans to repurpose twelve of its locations into Town Centers -- an outdoor gathering area with seating, community activities, entertainment, dining facilities, jogging paths, fountains, green spaces, playgrounds, and even space for live music.

The idea behind Walmart's seismic shift is that it wants to recreate the downtown of small communities that it was instrumental in destroying.

“We want to provide community space, areas for the community to dwell,” said L.B. Johnson, vice president of realty operations for Walmart in his ICSC keynote speech.​


According to Forbes, the mega-retailer has already started transforming its stores in Loveland, CO., as well as in Washington, Texas, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas, California and Oregon, into new Town Centers.

“We want to provide pedestrian connectivity from our box to the experiential zones that are planned on our footprint,” Johnson continued on the podium.​

“We want to augment these experiences and activities with more food and beverage, with health and fitness, essential services and entertainment.”​
This new strategy provides the lower class with a reason to come to Walmart besides purchasing electronics or groceries.

“Give people something to do, then they will shop,” Ken Nisch, chairman of retail design firm JGA, told Forbes.​

“But shopping can’t be the thing to do.”

It seems the Town Center concept is the final piece of the puzzle where corporate America has spent decades destroying rural communities across the country through deindustrialization and a prescription opioid crisis. Now, this overreaching strategy could take the more than 5,000 Walmart stores and turn them into Town Centers where the corporate takeover of communities would be complete.



According to the Walmart website, some Town Centers will have a "mobility hub" where people can ride public transportation, rent bicycles or scooters, or use ride-share - much like at an actual town center.

"A transformation is underway," Johnson said in his speech.​

"We are working with the local community to really master plan a vision, not only for Walmart, but shared with the municipality. We are using terms like collaboration space." And, he added, "We are going to hold ourselves accountable to the community for improving well-being."​

So, it all makes sense, corporations have spent decades deindustrializing regions of America. Now, Walmart wants to rebuild these communities under corporate control. It is also becoming increasingly clear that the system of government under which we live today is a government of the elites, by the bureaucrats and for the corporations. Through Town Centers, Walmart has accelerated the corporate takeover of America.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...rt-plans-seize-further-control-your-community
 

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US Farmers Are Stashing Soybeans In Toolsheds And Caves As They Wait Out Trade War


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/12/2018 - 22:00


Amid China's worsening trade-war fueled economic slide, the Communist country's April decision to slap a 25% tariff on imports of US soybeans has remained one of its most rewarding retaliatory maneuvers. So far, at least, the food-price inflation that many feared would follow hasn't materialized - while the plunge in soybean purchases (imports to China fell 94% between the beginning of September and mid-October) has helped maximize the pressure on Trump-supporting farmers in North Dakota, Iowa and across the US farm belt.

Still, for China, targeting soybeans was essential if it wanted the agricultural tariffs to have any real impact, as the chart below clearly illustrates.



Analysts had worried that Chinese pork farmers would struggle to find another source of soybeans, causing prices to skyrocket. That hasn't happened, as other soybean producers (who process the oilseed into food for their hogs) like Brazil, Argentina and now Russia have helped pick up the slack. What's more, the transition has been relatively fluid. Meanwhile, in the US, soybean prices have fallen $2 per bushel over the past two months. For US farmers, the timing on China's tariffs couldn't have been worse, as Chinese demand started to level off just as US production reached record highs.

And even as the trade war shows no signs of letting up (though markets are perhaps naively optimistic about Trump's upcoming meeting with President Xi on the sidelines of the G-20 later this month), futures traders are hoping that demand will have rebounded (or that farmers will have the good sense to cut production) by this time next year, when a rebound has already been priced in. Many are hoping that prices will rise if the Trump-Xi trade talks yield even the slightest sign of progress. But seeing as they have few good options, American farmers are choosing to try and wait it out.



According to Bloomberg, American farmers are storing more soybeans than ever before. Storing soybeans isn't easy, as farmers in North Dakota are quickly learning: The slightest exposure to moisture can cause the crops to quickly rot, transforming the beans into a slick blackish mush with the consistency of mashed potatoes and the stench of roadkill.



Still, with farm profits down in four of the last five years, many farmers have no good options.

For some farmers, there is little choice but to keep their harvest. Millions of bushels have nowhere to go. Terminals in Portland, a key outlet in the Pacific Northwest to ship to China, are rarely offering bids. Supplies are backed up at terminals and elevators, even as cold, wet weather in North Dakota has left many acres unharvested. The country’s soybean inventories are expected to more than double to about 955 million bushels by the end of this crop year, according to the USDA.​

Iowa grower Robb Ewoldt, who’s been farming since 1996, is storing most of his soy for the first time in about 15 years. His crop usually floats down the Mississippi River, about a half mile from his fields, on barges for export through the Gulf of Mexico to China and other countries. This year he’s stashing beans in his silos, making room for them by selling or storing his corn in commercial storage, to await higher prices.​

"It’s probably more advantageous to store this year than any year in the past," he said.​
Given that silo capacity is tight, some farmers are experimenting with new methods for storing their beans, like piling them on the ground or stuffing them into large bags. Others are stuffing their beans virtually anywhere they can find space, including tool sheds and caves.

Space for all the extra soy is tight. That’s leading to some rarely taken measures, such as piling beans on the ground - risking their exposure to bad weather. More farmers also are stuffing them into sausage-shaped bags that can stretch the length of a football field.​

"I’ve heard farmers and commercial companies putting corn and soybeans into tool sheds and caves," Soren Schroder, chief executive officer of Bunge Ltd., the world’s largest soybean processor, said in an interview last month.​

The tariffs have particularly hit exports from North Dakota, where the expansion of oilseed acreage was a direct result of the growth of Chinese demand. The state plants the fourth-highest number of soybeans in the U.S. and about 70 percent go to Asia, largely because of its geographic accessibility to western ports.​

In North Dakota, which has been the hardest hit by the tariffs given the massive expansion of production capacity in recent years to feed the Asian market, some farmers are planning to store their entire crop. One cooperative in North Dakota expects to store more than 2 million bushels of soybeans this year.

North Dakota farmer Mike Clemens is so in need of space that he’s breaking out a dozen and a half bins built in the 1960s to store about 45,000 bushels of soybeans, which is half his farm’s production this year. He expects to fill up his five new silos with 300,000 bushels of corn.​

Sarah Lovas, a grower in Hillsboro, North Dakota, has drawn several diagrams to map out storage for her entire crop. Her current plan is to fill up her 400,000 bushels of on-farm storage with 50,000 bushels of soybeans and the rest with corn. She’s renting grain bins for soybeans from a neighbor for the first time, to store about 68,000 bushels.​

"I wish I had more bins," Lovas said.​

One family owned farm that pioneered the bagging technique for storing corn says it has been inundated with pleas for help by other farms.

Gingerich Farms in Lovington, Illinois, has used 300-foot plastic white bags for the last seven to eight years to store corn and soybeans. This year, the family operation has gotten as many as 10 calls from neighboring producers asking about how to use the bags, compared with one or two inquiries last year, said Darrel Gingerich, vice president of the farm.​

"Corn is kind of a given," he said. "They were calling us about bagging beans."

The Illinois Department of Agriculture has been overwhelmed by requests for more storage capacity, as the state, which is the largest US producer of soybeans.



As of early October, farmers had requested storage capacity for 11.4 million bushels of soybeans, triple the level from last year.

Illinois, the largest US soybean producer, may have the biggest storage shortfall, needing as much as 100 million bushels for storing crops, said Tim Brusnahan, an analyst with agriculture brokerage and consulting firm Brock Associates.​

As of the start of this month, the Illinois Department of Agriculture had received requests for 11.6 million bushels of emergency storage capacity, such as bags, nearly triple the amount from a year earlier. Requests for temporary storage such as structures with waterproof covers increased 4 percent.​

While Illinois’s crops are less dependent on China demand, today’s low prices make storing the soy a better choice, Gingerich said.​

"The markets tell us to store it," Gingerich said. "It’s tight, very tight."

To try to alleviate the economic pain, the Trump administration has ordered billions of dollars of subsidies for soybean farmers. It has also earmarked $200 million to help cultivate (no pun intended) new overseas markets for US soybeans. But given the rush for foreign producers to gobble up market share previously belonging to US farmers, anxieties are mounting that the US soybean industry will never recover from the tariffs. And although soybean farmers in Iowa and North Dakota stood by the Republican Party during the midterms, if the pain persists, will they look to punish "the president's folly"?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...s-toolsheds-and-caves-they-wait-out-trade-war
 

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Trouble Brewing In Hong Kong


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/12/2018 - 23:00


Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Hong Kong has for decades been one of the most stable places in the world.



When the British took Hong Kong over in the late 1800s, it was nothing more than an irrelevant backwater made up of fishing villages and illiterate fishermen.

But after a few decades, it became one of the most prosperous places in the world.

And that wasn’t an accident. Hong Kong allowed unbridled capitalism to dominate and it worked extraordinarily well.

Sure, a handful of people got super wealthy. But, in general, there’s been bountiful prosperity across the board.

As a result of the prosperity and bent toward capitalism, Hong Kong has become one of the most important financial centers in the world. And for decades, it’s had a very well capitalized banking system.

And one of the key reasons for that is the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been pegged to the US dollar (USD) since the early 1980’s.
The peg is a double-edged sword for Hong Kong.

The key advantage is international stability. As long as the USD remains the global reserve currency, the fact that it’s interchangeable with HKD means economic stability.

The disadvantage is that the peg doesn’t give Hong Kong any independence. They have to follow US interest rate policy regardless of whether or not it’s good for them.

And that’s definitely caused problems, which are accelerating this year.

The US is just coming off a decade of ultra-low interest rates meant to boost domestic growth. But HK, which wasn’t in a dire, economic situation to begin with, has also had a decade of low rates.

One of the results of that is that Hong Kong has become one of the most expensive property markets in the world. It makes London look cheap.

And the property market in Hong Kong is highly leveraged. People typically get bank loans to buy property without putting much money down.

And a lot of those loans are like what we saw in the US in 2008 – no money down, low teaser rates, variable rate loans, etc… the type of lax lending that rocked the entire financial system.

I expect we’ll see a similar, financial crisis in Hong Kong down the road as a result of this lax lending against property.

And now that interest rates are rising in the US, they’re rising in Hong Kong…

So the local mortgages will reset at higher rates that people can’t afford. I expect we’ll see a wave of defaults that will slam the banks big time.

If that were the only problem in Hong Kong, I wouldn’t be terribly concerned because the banks there are so well capitalized.

However, the ongoing dispute between the US and China adds another risk.

The US-imposed sanctions against China are problematic and will force the Chinese to scramble for the dollars they need to engage in international commerce. Even though the dollar isn’t the local currency, China still needs dollars to buy oil, copper and pretty much everything else on the global stage.

And that takes a steady supply of dollars.

Right now, China gets a lot of USD from the US, because China runs a big surplus with the US. And those dollars fund China’s deficit with its other trading partners.

If that dollar supply gets cut off because of a trade dispute, China will need another supply.

And where is there a giant supply of dollar’s available for the Chinese?

Hong Kong is sitting on around half a trillion USD.

In a crisis, China could take those dollars and repeg the HKD to the renminbi.

I’m not saying that’s likely. But it’s more of a possibility now than it has been in the past. And things change.

Still, I felt compelled to raise this with you as a potential risk – albeit a somewhat minor one.

I’ve often discussed holding HKD as a risk-free way to hold USD. If the USD ever tanked, Hong Kong could remove the peg and allow the HKD to float freely.

But this new risk changes the situation…

Enough so that I’m taking my money out of HKD and reducing my exposure to Hong Kong banks.

I don’t think this will become a major catastrophe or that this HKD scenario is even that likely. But it is riskier than it was.

It’s sensible to take some money off the table. The HKD trades in a tight band with the USD and it costs very little to switch in and out.

And you can put that money into 28-day T-bills, which are yielding over 2%.

If I had to choose between making 2%+ in T-bills and the potential threat of the HKD being repegged to renminbi, I’m taking T-bills.

This week I’m telling Sovereign Man: Confidential readers more about what’s happening with the Hong Kong dollar and what they can do about.
But for now, I think it makes sense to take some money out of HKD. It makes sense regardless of what may or may not happen in the future.
And like many things we discuss regarding a Plan B, there’s no downside.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-12/trouble-brewing-hong-kong
 

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Saturday Scrap - After The Elections & Reported Prices - 11/10/18
iScrap App


Published on Nov 13, 2018
Check Scrap Prices Today: https://iScrapApp.com/ - A few days late we have out Saturday update for you from last week. Tom reads out some of the reported prices we saw across North America through the iScrap App and gives some updates on the scrap market.

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Silver, Gold, and Generational Wealth
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What is your take on generational wealth, as it relates to precious metals?

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. Silver Bar at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

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Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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Going Offshore: Red Pill vs. Blue Pill
Nomad Capitalist


Published on Nov 13, 2018
http://www.nomadcapitalist.com

There are two types of people in the world: those who are nostalgic about the past and cling to what no longer works, and those who are honest about what's happening and take action.

Call it "red pill" vs. "blue pill".

Most people stay in a country and in an environment that doesn't serve them, all because of emotional reasons and - in all honesty - lying to themselves.

Which type of person are you? Why? COMMENT below.
 

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Newly minted Democratic socialist congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez says New Yorkers are 'outraged' over Amazon tax break that could total $1.5 BILLION for hiring tens of thousands at new headquarters

  • Amazon has chosen two locations for its second headquarters, New York City and Northern Virginia
  • Retail giant is also making Nashville a new operations hub
  • Future congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez blasted Amazon.com and the New York City government on Tuesday
  • She 's angry about a tax-relief agreement that lured the giant e-tailer to the Big Apple
  • Ocasio-Cortez describes herself as a Democratic socialist
  • She said on Twitter that she's skeptical Amazon won't let its new New York staff unionize, and wants the company to hire people in the neighborhood
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ays-New-Yorkers-outrage-Amazon-tax-break.html
 

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Japan Takes South Korea to WTO Over Financial Support for Shipbuilders
November 13, 2018 by Reuters


A worker near a ship which is currently under construction at Hyundai Heavy Industries’ Shipyard in Ulsan, South Korea, May 13, 2015. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji/File Photo



By Tom Miles GENEVA, Nov 13 (Reuters) – Japan has launched a complaint at the World Trade Organization to contest what it says is illegal financial support given by South Korea to commercial shipbuilders, according to a WTO filing published on Tuesday.

“The measures in question relate to the development, production, marketing, and/or sale or purchase of commercial vessels, including vessels designed to carry crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and shipping containers,” Japan’s complaint said.

Japan said South Korea had implemented a range of measures to help its shipbuilders, including “producer support” such as direct financing that enabled shipbuilders to remain afloat in prolonged periods of otherwise unsustainable low pricing.

It also provided “sales support” to the shipbuilders and their customers, which helped to stimulate sales, including during periods of relatively low demand.

The complaint detailed Japanese concerns such as the restructuring of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering from 2015 onwards, including loans from the Korea Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, and restructuring of other shipbuilders since 2007.

Other disputed measures included pre-shipment loans, subsidies to replace old ships with new “eco-ships,” and guarantees and other insurance.

South Korea’s shipbuilding and shipping companies have undergone massive restructuring in recent years amid a slowdown in global demand and rising competition from China.

These heavy industries, which helped propel South Korea’s growth in past decades, have cut tens of thousands of jobs, hurting local economies and households.

South Korea now has 60 days to settle the dispute, after which Japan could ask the WTO to adjudicate.

(Reporting by Tom Miles; editing by Stephanie Nebehay)

(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.

https://gcaptain.com/japan-takes-south-korea-to-wto-over-financial-support-for-shipbuilders/
 

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BIMCO Adopts 2020 Bunker Clauses
November 13, 2018 by gCaptain


Photo: By E.G.Pors / Shutterstock

International shipping association BIMCO has developed two new bunker clauses dealing with general compliance and the transitional period for the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 MARPOL requirements for the maximum sulphur content in marine fuel.

In addition to its other duties, BIMCO is leading provider of maritime clauses and contracts covering the full lifecycle of ship-related operation and activity.

The Global Marine Fuel Sulphur Clause for Time Charter Parties was approved by BIMCO’s Documentary Committee at its meeting in Copenhagen on Tuesday. The clauses are set for an early December.

“It is very important that the new sulphur clauses are ready well in advance to allow the parties to prepare ahead of 1 January 2020,” when the IMO requirements enter into force, says Peter Eckhardt, chairperson of the drafting committee and Head of Chartering and Operations at Reederei F. Laeisz.

“The Global Marine Fuel Sulphur Clause for Time Charter Parties will help them do exactly that, as it sets out the obligations and responsibilities of owners and charterers to comply with MARPOL Annex VI sulphur content requirements.” Eckhardt says.

The clause states that charterers are obliged to provide fuel that complies with MARPOL requirements, grades and specifications set out in the charter party, and it is a general compliance clause. It also states that charterers must use suppliers and bunker barge operators who comply with MARPOL and that shipowners will remain responsible for the fuel management.

The second clause discussed at the Committee meeting in Copenhagen deals with the transitional period from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020. The two clauses will be published as one package.

The clause focuses on cooperation between owners and charterers to minimise quantities of non-compliant fuel on board by 31 December 2019.

It states that any remaining non-compliant fuel on board after 1 January 2020 has to be removed no later than re-delivery or 1 March 2020 – whichever comes first. It also states that removal of non-compliant fuel must be done at the charterers’ cost, while tank cleaning must be done at the cost of the shipowners.

https://gcaptain.com/bimco-adopts-2020-bunker-clauses/
 

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Pirates Fire On LNG Carrier Off Bonny, Nigeria
November 12, 2018 by Mike Schuler


A ship berths at an LNG terminal in Bonny, Nigeria. File Photo: REUTERS/Akintunde Akinleye

Pirates in a speed boat chased and fired on an LNG tanker last week off the coast of Bonny, Nigeria, the IMB Piracy Reporting Center has confirmed.

The incident took place last Tuesday, November 26, approximately 30 nautical miles southwest of Bonny.

The Piracy Reporting Centre report said the LNG tanker was chased and fired upon by nine pirates in a speed boat. The vessel’s emergency alarm was raised, all crew mustered in citadel and SSAS alert activated.

The pirates approached the vessel several times but were unsuccessful and later aborted the attack due to the the vessel increasing speed and evasive maneuvers, the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre said. Both the vessel and crew reported safe.

The identity of the vessel was not disclosed in the report.

Last week, the Piracy Reporting Centre reported that there has been a record-low number of hijackings in the Gulf of Guinea so far in 2018, but the piracy threat in the region persists. The IMB report noted that 37 of the 39 crew kidnappings for ransom taking place around the world in the first nine months of 2018 occurred in the Gulf of Guinea region, in seven separate incidents.

https://gcaptain.com/pirates-fire-on-lng-carrier-off-bonny-nigeria/
 

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America's deadliest jobs, revealed – with construction, agriculture and cattle ranching among the most risky

  • A total of 5,190 people died of injuries in American workplaces in 2016, the most recent year for which data is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • It's a 7 percent increase compared to the 4,836 deaths at work sites in 2015
  • Construction was one of the deadliest industries, with 991 deaths in 2016, including 384 due to falls and slips and 246 due to transportation incidents
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-revealed-construction-agriculture-risky.html
 

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Starbucks to lay off about five percent of its global corporate employees in a restructuring shake up

  • Starbucks is planning to lay off about 350 global corporate employees
  • CEO Kevin Johnson revealed the news in a memo to staff on Tuesday
  • Those impacted work in marketing, creative, product, technology and store development
  • The elimination of the non-store employees is part of a restructuring plan that Johnson unveiled in September
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6385767/Starbucks-lay-350-global-corporate-employees.html
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 13 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 13, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 13 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 13, 2018
 

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Nord Stream 2 Could Still Be Derailed By U.S. Sanctions


by Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/14/2018 - 05:00


Authored by Tim Daiss via Oilprice.com,

The potential for more tensions in relations between the U.S. and Russia continue to mount. Late last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said that Washington could still impose sanctions related to the building of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would bring Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea. Perry made his comments in Warsaw as the Trump administration tries to convince EU members to sign LNG deals with U.S. producers to offset over reliance on Russian pipeline gas.



On Thursday, Polish state-run gas firm PGNiG signed a long-term LNG deal with U.S.-based Cheniere Marketing International. Poland has been fervent in its resistance to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as well as working to reduce its reliance on geopolitically charged Russian gas. Moscow, for its part, has cut gas supply to Europe in the past during cold winter months to exert its influence in the region.

Warsaw and Washington also signed on Thursday a joint declaration on enhanced energy security cooperation.

“This is also a clear signal that the U.S. strongly supports a pro-Poland and pro-Europe energy security policy,” Perry said.​

“Energy security in turn requires energy diversity. That is the reason we oppose the Nord Stream 2 project which would further increase the dangerous energy dependence many European nations have on the Russian federation,” he added.​
Poland consumes around 17 billion cubic meters of gas annually, more than half of which comes from Russian energy giant Gazprom under a long-term deal that expires in 2022. However, Poland has said that it would not renew the gas supply deal, making the country race against time to replace the contract with new gas volumes.

When asked at a news conference whether Washington could impose sanctions on companies working on the project, Perry replied:

“I saw no signals where we would ever get to the point where we can support Nord Stream 2.”

He added that “sanctions were an option that the president maintained.”

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has also been a point of contention between Trump and Germany as well. In a televised meeting with reporters and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before a NATO summit in Brussels earlier this year, Trump said it was “very inappropriate” that the U.S. was paying for European defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals with Moscow.

However, since then, Germany has indicated that it wanted to buy more LNG from the U.S., with plans to build three LNG receiving terminals. Germany also remains firm in its support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The $11 billion gas pipeline will stretch some 759 miles (1,222 km), running on the bed of the Baltic Sea from Russian gas fields to Germany, bypassing existing land routes over Ukraine, Poland and Belarus. It would double the existing Nord Stream pipeline’s current annual capacity of 55 bcm and is expected to become operational by the end of next year.

Russia’s Gazprom is the sole shareholder in Nord Stream 2, shouldering 50 percent of the 9.5 billion-euro ($11 billion) bill. Gazprom’s Western partners are Austrian OMV along with Uniper, Wintershall, Shell and Engie.

Russia, for its part, claims that security concerns over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline are unfounded and that it is a purely economic venture. It also accuses the Trump administration of trying to erode Russian gas supply market share in Europe in favor of more expensive U.S.-produced LNG.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in September that the pipeline would go forward even if sanctions were put in place. "We hope that there will be no sanctions. If U.S. restrictions are imposed, the project will be implemented anyway, the pipe laying has already started," Novak told reporters, adding that the plan envisions the project to be completed by the end of 2019.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-13/nord-stream-2-could-still-be-derailed-us-sanctions
 

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Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Oil Rebound Fizzles, Pound Tumbles


by Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/14/2018 - 07:15

European stocks pared a decline of as much as 1.2% on Wednesday but remained in the red, as the FTSE 100 erased losses after the pound resumed its drop ahead of today's key cabinet meeting, and as oil rebounded after a Reuters report OPEC+ may cut 1.4MM barrels of output, following the latest mixed data out of China...



... while Asian shares slumped and US equity futures slid in the red fading earlier gains.



Overall sentiment was negative, with stocks around the globe in the red, if not suffering major losses.



Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was dragged lower by mining and energy shares following the latest round of disappointing Chinese retail sales data, as good news for the auto sector - following a Bloomberg report that the White House would hold off imposing auto tariffs for now - wasn’t enough tip the broad European market into the green.



European stocks were also pressured by the worst German GDP print since 2015, after Europe's strongest economy contracted in the 3rd quarter as a result of collapsing auto production.



Not helping was continued political gridlock in Italy, whose cabinet defied Europe overnight and resubmitted its budget proposal, predicting a 2.4% budget deficit, a number that had previously been rejected by Brussels. European energy stocks were down 0.9%; they pared losses at one point as oil recovered after a OPEC’s President said the group and its allies will cut production, and Reuters reported up to 1.4MM barrels in production would be cut. West Texas crude attempted a rebound after posting its longest losing streak on record, however the spike has been short-lived for now and at this pace, oil's record 12-day decline appears set to continue.



The UK's FTSE 100 was flat with the pound falling as much as 0.5% vs USD after a sharp jump on Tuesday, with the success of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal still in question, given the need to win over her Cabinet members and later Parliament.

Energy producers also weighed in Australia, where equities slumped. Japanese stocks came off their highs of the day, while shares declined in Hong Kong, China and South Korea. The Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a contraction to GDP data with the benchmark index kept afloat for most the session by JPY weakness and as automakers cheered reports the US was said to be planning to hold off on implementing auto tariffs for now. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were also downbeat as participants digested mostly uninspiring releases from China including softer than expected New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing and Retail Sales, although Industrial Production and Fixed Assets Investment data topped estimates



In currencies, all eyes were on the pound, which swung between gains and losses as traders wait to see if Theresa May could persuade her cabinet to back her Brexit deal. The dollar reversed a decline during Asian hours, while the Norwegian krone hit its lowest level since June 2017 following a rout in oil prices. The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1270 as euro-area economic growth slowed in the third quarter, held back by a contraction in Germany. The Swedish krona fell as inflation missed estimates for October, weakening the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month.

Treasury yields were flat and the dollar remained near an 18-month high, rising from earlier session lows. Italy’s sovereign bonds climbed despite the government submitting a defiant budget to the European Commission on Tuesday.

Traders also fretted over the next move in oil, which has suffered a historic rout at an already challenging time for global equities, which have been digesting a downturn in the tech sector, the ongoing trade spat between the two biggest economies as well as a higher-rate regime.



And as we reported earlier that the Trump administration is holding off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobiles, there is ground for some optimism, but Brexit and Italian risks linger, American inflation data is out Wednesday and key reports on the crude market are also imminent.

The key event in the US will be the October CPI report where the consensus is for another +0.2% mom reading for the core – the 37th successive month with such a forecast.

In addition to today's key CPI report, attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who speaks Wednesday at a conference on national and global economic issues; some expect the Chair to expound on topics and recent events in markets that did not make their way into last week’s sparse FOMC statement, with some analysts expecting him to calm worries about the central bank pushing its interest rate-hike cycle too far.

Elsewhere, India’s rupee rallied to an almost two-month high and its sovereign bonds advanced as the slump in oil prices deepened, easing investor concerns over the oil-importing nation’s current-account deficit. Emerging-market equities slipped. Gold fell.

Expected data include mortgage applications and inflation. Canopy Growth, Macy’s and Cisco are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,723.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 361.31
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 150.12
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 478.54
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,846.48
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,641.26
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 25,654.43
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,632.24
  • Sensex up 0.09% to 35,177.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 5,732.77
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,068.05
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.39%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1274
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.074%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 1.618%
  • Brent futures up 0.5% to $65.77/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,200.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.30
Top Overnight News
  • Prime Minister Theresa May has clinched a Brexit deal with the European Union after months of deadlock. She now has to convince a skeptical Cabinet that it’s not a sellout and overcome near impossible odds to get it through Parliament
  • The U.S. and China have resumed contact “at all levels” over trade ahead of a planned meeting between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said
  • China’s industrial production and business investment gained pace, while retail sales growth slowed, signaling some stabilization for policy makers grappling with the slowest economic growth in nearly a decade
  • Japan’s economy contracted in the third quarter for the second time this year after an earthquake, typhoons and torrential rain battered production at home and exports declined amid softer demand overseas
  • The Trump administration will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports as top officials weigh revisions to a report on the national security implications, according to two people familiar with the matter
  • Oil was showing little sign of recovering from its unprecedented decline as investors flee a market hammered by swelling supplies and a darkening demand outlook
  • Euro-area GDP grew 0.2%, matching an initial estimate, but half the pace recorded in the previous period, Eurostat said Wednesday. The German economy shrank for the first time since early 2015 after the auto industry took a hit
  • U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “unstable and unreliable” and said he and other lawmakers were discussing sanctions against the longtime U.S. ally in the wake of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s killing
  • OPEC and allied oil producers will cut or adjust production as needed to balance the market, the group’s president, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said Wednesday
Asian equities traded lacklustre following a similar performance on Wall Street where the energy sector was hit by a further
aggressive slide in oil prices but with losses in the broader market stemmed amid resilience in financials and tech. ASX 200 (-
1.7%) was led lower by weakness in energy names after WTI crude fell nearly 8% on its record 12th consecutive decline, while
Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a contraction to GDP data with the benchmark index kept afloat for most the session by JPY
weakness and as automakers cheered reports the US was said to be planning to hold off on implementing auto tariffs for now.

Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.9%) were also downbeat as participants digested mostly uninspiring
releases from China including softer than expected New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing and Retail Sales, although Industrial
Production and Fixed Assets Investment data topped estimates. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as the lacklustre risk tone across
the region underpinned demand and in which upside gained traction as the Japanese benchmark stock index momentarily gave up
all its gains.

Top Asian News
  • China’s Economy Hints at Improvement Ahead Amid Consumer Gloom
  • Sumitomo Mitsui Profit Jumps on Trading, Loans and Fee Business
  • Samsung Arm Faces Criminal Probe After Breaking Accounting Rules
  • Iran Executes Gold Coin ’Sultan’ as U.S. Sanctions Bite
  • Weber Sees Takeda Getting More Than 66% Vote on Shire: Nikkei
Major European indices, excluding FTSE 100 (+0.1%), are in the red (albeit off of worst levels, amid a mild uptick in crude prices
and positive earnings from Tencent), with the FTSE MIB (-1.2%) lagging its peers amid political jitters and negativity from Mediaset
(-8.1%) post earnings and Telecom Italia (-4.0%) following a negative broker move amid board unrest; of note, reports suggest that Alfredo Altavia is the lead candidate for CEO. Sectors are mixed with energy names and materials lagging whilst utilities lead.

Elsewhere, Smiths Group (+6.3%) are in the green after confirming their full year management expectations and spinning-off their
Healthcare unit. E.ON (+2.5%) are firmer after reporting a beat on earnings, Wirecard (-4.0%) are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600
post-earnings, whilst Rio Tinto (-3.0%) shares have been hampered after a downgrade at Liberum

Top European News
  • Macquarie Being Investigated by Denmark for Role in Tax Scandal
  • EON Reports Profit Gain, Eyes Synergies From Innogy Takeover
  • Maersk Raises Lower End of Forecast Range as Sales Pick Up
  • U.K. Inflation Unexpectedly Stays at 2.4% as Food Costs Decline
  • Convicted Balkan Ex-Leader’s Asylum Plea Puts Orban in a Jam
In FX, it’s Brexit day for the Pound, or at least another pivotal moment in the process towards reaching a deal before the UK officially leaves the EU as the Cabinet decides whether to back or reject the withdrawal agreement. The session kicks off at 14GMT and the outcome remains uncertain even though PM May appears to have persuaded key Ministers to vote in favour, as the minority DUP coalition partner has already indicated its strong opposition. Hence, some retracement in Sterling from the highs seen when news broke that UK and EU negotiators had finally agreed resolved the outstanding issues, with Cable back below 1.3000 and almost retesting 1.2900 on negative legal observations on the terms of the backstop, while Eur/Gbp is firmly back above 0.8700. Note, benign inflation data has also kept the Pound in consolidative/defensive mode.

EUR - The single currency remains partly in lock-step with the Gbp on Brexit-related moves, but also depressed by the ongoing Italian-EU budget stand-off and further evidence of slowing momentum in the Eurozone economy, with German GDP weaker than forecast in Q3. Eur/Usd has lost grip of 1.1300 as a result, and from a technical perspective is back below the 100 HMA at 1.1312.

SEK/NOK - Another weak Scandi macro release has seen the Sek underperform and Nok decline in sympathy, as Swedish CPI missed consensus and raised more doubt over a Riksbank hike in December rather than February 2019. Moreover, the domestic political backdrop remains clouded as PM candidate Kristersson did not get Parliament consent to try and form a new Government. Eur/Sek up to 10.2980 and toughing strong chart resistance vs circa 10.2135 at one stage, Eur/Nok just shy of 9.6400 from 9.585 at the low.

In commodities, Brent (+0.3%) and WTI (+0.1%) break their downward streak, following sources reporting that OPEC+ are debating a 1.4mln BPD oil supply reduction. This followed today’s IEA monthly stating that OPEC crude output rose by 200kbpd in October, which is up 240k compared to last year; and Q3 stocks posting their largest gain since 2015. At the time, this added to the recent downward pressure on prices before the aforementioned sources suggesting an OPEC+ supply reduction. Of note, we APIs will be released today due to Monday's Veterans Day Holiday. Gold (-0.1%) is marginally softer amidst a firmer dollar with Gold breaching USD 1200/oz to the downside and unable to benefit from the current risk environment. Separately, shanghai rebar prices have recovered from recent lows, as expectations of economic stimulus from Beijing offsets record October steel output.

Looking at the day ahead, all eyes will of course be on the October CPI report. Away from the data, over at the Fed, Vice Chair of Supervision (Quarles) will give his semi-annual testimony on banking supervision to the House Financial Services Panel. Late this evening and after the close, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a conference with the Fed’s Kaplan. Oh and don’t forget Brexit will be in the news!

US Event Calendar
  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.7%
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • US CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
    • Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.06%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.5%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We look like we now have a draft Brexit withdrawal deal. Now this easy part is out of the way along comes the hard part of selling it to a divided Parliament full of vested interests and factions. Theresa May briefed cabinet members one by one last night and will hold a full special cabinet meeting at 2pm today to approve (or not) the deal. The agreement document will then be published over the next two days and the next 10 days will be spent on selling the deal to MPs and to the wider public. November 24/25th could then mark an EU summit to agree the deal, followed by the UK Parliamentary vote, with some press reports suggesting December 10th is earmarked but it could be earlier. Oliver Harvey put out a piece last night highlighting 10 key questions ( link ) for the market in light of the draft deal. For me the key ones surround whether there are any UK government resignations, whether the DUP are comfortable with the deal, and the reaction of the press.

The initial political reaction wasn’t brilliant, with attacks coming from all directions. Nigel Dodds, the Deputy Leader of the DUP said that if the deal subjects Northern Ireland to “rules and laws set in Brussels, not in Westminster or Belfast, then that’s unacceptable.” The leader Arlene Foster later echoed these comments. The hard Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg described the mooted deal as “a failure to deliver on Brexit,” while Labor Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn warned that his party would vote against the proposal if it does not “work for the whole country.” The sharpest rhetoric unsurprisingly came from Boris Johnson, who called the deal “utterly unacceptable” and recommended Parliament to “chuck it out,” though he has not yet seen the details. However, the UK PM May’s most important pro-Brexit ministers, like Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Michael Gove, are reported by the Sun to be standing by her side.

Consistent with the cacophony of noise from Westminster, sterling traded somewhat erratically yesterday. It initially gained as much as +1.54% when headlines broke about a deal being reached, as the market continues to interpret any Brexit progress as a positive. The currency later retraced a bit as the slew of negative reactions trickled through. Nevertheless, the pound still ultimately closed +1.0% stronger and is stable (+0.08%) in early trading this morning. Maybe I’m reading too much into all the initial comments from MPs from all sides who haven’t seen the full deal text but at this stage I can’t see how the deal passes through Parliament. Time will tell and maybe views will soften.

As an aside at home we got an email from EuroTunnel last week as we are travelling to France with Bronte the dog just a few days after the UK leaves the EU at the end of March. Holiday not emigration by the way! The email urged us to go to see a vet ASAP to find out exactly what the arrangements will be for dogs in case of a no-deal Brexit. My wife coincidentally had to take Bronte for some jabs the next day and thus asked the vet. The vet said she had absolutely no idea what it would mean. So vets can be added to the list of those of us utterly confused about the potential scenarios and what the consequences will be going forward. Outside of Brexit, oil was the big story yesterday with WTI and Brent falling a stunning -7.07% and -6.63% respectively, yesterday, which puts it in the 99.4th percentile for worst daily moves over the last 35 years. That means that oil prices are now down for 12 consecutive sessions. We’ve been lazy over the last couple of days and highlighted that oil was on its worst successive losing streak since 1983 based on when Bloomberg’s data starts. However we went through our archives yesterday and found a bit more daily data back to 1977 and we still we cant find a losing run of this magnitude. It now stretches to 12 days.

Prices started to crash lower midway through the afternoon, with WTI dropping through $59, $58, $57, $56 and $55 at one point before settling back above $55 as the US equity market closed. Overnight oil prices are still finding it difficult to find base in Asia this morning with WTI down another -0.41% and Brent -0.29%. The move came about after OPEC’s monthly report, which showed that Saudi Arabia pumped a record volume of oil in October, eclipsing its 2016 level which was the basis of the prior deal to cap production for the first time. The report also forecast a surprising build in global excess supply in 2019, as forecasts for non-OPEC supply were increased by 120,000bpd and global demand was reduced by 70,000bpd. A series of other headwinds contributed to the move, including President Trump’s tweet earlier this week calling for lower oil prices, the apparent reluctance by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak to support production cuts, and forced selling by vol-targeting and CTA funds.

Having held the title as one of the best performing assets in 2018, and one of only 8 assets out of 70 to have a positive total return in USD terms this year up until the end of October, WTI is now down -8.52% for the year (Brent -2.50%). So another asset now down in dollar terms for the year.

The move for oil weighed on US equities, as the energy sector (-2.39%) derailed an otherwise healthy session. The S&P 500 and DOW retreated -0.15% and -0.40% respectively, while the NASDAQ traded flat and the NYFANG index advanced +1.21%. Cyclical sectors (apart from oil) performed well, with financials and industrials leading gains, up +0.59% and +0.45% respectively. The NEC Director Larry Kudlow extended the positive sentiment around the latest round of US-China trade headlines, saying that talks between the two governments are happening at “all levels.” Treasury yields nudged a bit lower especially at the front end where 2-year yields ended down -3.3bps, while 10-year yields finished -3.9bps lower, as the move in oil continued to weigh on inflation expectations, with 10-year breakevens down -1.9bps yesterday and -13.9bps from their early October peak.

On Italy, the government opted yesterday to stick with its budget deficit and growth projections, of 2.4% and 1.5% respectively, despite pushback from the European Commission. This raises the odds that the Commission institutes the Excessive Deficit Procedure imminently. 10-year BTPs rose +0.8bps yesterday and the FTSEMIB advanced +0.90%, as the news broke after European markets had closed. So something to watch at the open today but it’s hardly a surprise.

In the meantime, in a letter published on the Italian Treasury’s website this morning Finance Minister Tria has said that Italy will raise the privatisation goal to 1% of GDP for 2019 from the earlier planned target of 0.3% annually for the 2019-2021 period which it is hoped will help the government to reduce the debt to GDP ratio faster to 126% in 2021. However, it seems unlikely that this will assuage the EC concerns. Italy also asked for the EU to be flexible for extraordinary events such as floods and infrastructure work after the Genoa bridge collapse and has pencilled in €1bn for infrastructure maintenance in 2019. Elsewhere, the IMF in its annual review of the Italian economy said that “the planned stimulus carries substantial downside risks as it would leave Italy very vulnerable,” and the IMF projects Italian GDP growth to be c.1% in the 2018-20 period with the deficit standing at 2.7% of GDP in 2019 and public debt to remain around 130% of GDP over the next three years.

This morning in Asia, markets are off to a mixed start with Nikkei (+0.17%) up while the Hang Seng (-0.13%), Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) and Kospi (-0.22%) are down. Overnight data releases in China showed some signs of economic stabilisation as October industrial production (at +5.9% yoy vs. +5.8% yoy expected) and YtD October fixed asset investment (at 5.7% yoy vs. +5.5% yoy expected) surpassed expectations even as October retail sales (at +8.6% yoy vs. +9.2% yoy expected) disappointed. The data in China follows softer than expected October credit growth data yesterday which was a bit of a surprise in light of recent tax cuts and easing measures. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.08%) are pointing towards a largely flat open and Japan’s preliminary Q3 annualised GDP came in at -1.2% qoq (vs. -1.0% qoq expected).

In other overnight news, Bloomberg has reported that the US will hold off for now on imposing new tariffs on automobile imports as the White House weighs revisions to the Commerce Department report into the impact of car imports on national security.It’s worth noting that this morning’s data in China kick starts what is actually a fairly packed day ahead. Along with the UK Cabinet meeting, a couple of the other highlights – namely US CPI this afternoon and a speech by Fed Chair Powell this evening warrant a bit more of a preview. For US CPI, the consensus is for another +0.2% mom reading for the core – the 37th successive month with such a forecast – however our US economists do expect a slightly above market +0.3% print, which if so, would round up the annual rate to +2.23%. As for Powell, he’s due to speak after the close at 11pm GMT at a conference on national and global economic issues, and our colleagues think that this will be important since it will allow the Chair to expound on topics and recent events in markets that did not make their way into last week’s sparse FOMC statement.

Indeed, the event may preview some issues that will likely turn up in the minutes (released November 29th). Given the broad scope of the event, Powell's and Kaplan's discussion could range anywhere from how recent events such as the soft Q3 capex data or October’s market volatility may have affected the Fed’s economic outlook to longer-run issues such as the ultimate size of the balance sheet or the uncertainty around estimates of the neutral level of interest rates.

Back to yesterday, Greece – remember that? – also had a rare moment back in the spotlight after Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Greece was mulling a plan to free Greek lenders from €42bn of bad debts. The idea being mooted included transferring around half of deferred tax claims sitting at Greek banks to a SPV which in turn would sell bonds and use the proceeds to buy bad loans from lenders. Most of the capital at Greek banks is made up of tax claims against the state. Greek banks rallied +5.35% yesterday for the sub-index’s 6th best day this year – however that’s in the context of a -40.52% decline this year. The broader Athex was up +1.39% although is still also one of worst-performing markets this year with a -19.74% YTD return. Greek 10y yields actually rose +3.0bps post the news however at 4.40% are a long way from the heady days of 2015 when we talking about yields closer to 20%.

That Greece news did at least appear to help European markets more broadly rise in conjunction with some positive earnings reports and the trade headlines. The STOXX 600 finished +0.97% and DAX +1.30%. Bond markets were little changed with the exception of Gilts which rose 6.8bps amid the positive initial Brexit headlines that a deal was in the arrivals lounge.

As for the data yesterday, in Germany the final October CPI print was confirmed at +0.1% mom and +2.4% yoy – unchanged relative to the estimate. In the UK the main story was the soft employment data. The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly by one-tenth to 4.1% while the claimant count rose for the sixth consecutive month to 2.7%. The flip side was stronger than expected earnings with ex-bonus earnings coming in at +3.2% yoy in the three months to September, a tenth above consensus. The soft employment data is one to watch going forward with our UK economists noting that recent survey data also notes further weakness in the labour market ahead. The other data in Europe yesterday was the November ZEW survey in Germany where the current situations index tumbled nearly 12pts and far more than expected to 58.2 (vs. 65.0 expected). However that was somewhat offset by a tick up in the expectations component.

In the US, the October NFIB small business optimism index fell slightly to 107.4 from 107.9, but remains close to its all-time high. The US Treasury’s monthly budget statement showed a deficit of $100.5bn, roughly in line with expectations. The Fed’s senior loan officer survey showed little change to lending standards to large firms and will therefore have a limited impact on the economic outlook.

To the day ahead now where this morning we’ve got preliminary Q3 GDP data in Germany, where the consensus is for a -0.1% qoq reading. Shortly following that we get final October CPI revisions in France and a first look at the data for the UK. That then leads us into the advance Q3 GDP print for the Euro Area (no change from the preliminary +0.2% qoq reading expected), before September industrial production data for the Euro Area rounds out a busy morning. In the US all eyes will of course be on that aforementioned October CPI report. Away from the data, over at the Fed, Vice Chair of Supervision (Quarles) will give his semi-annual testimony on banking supervision to the House Financial Services Panel. Late this evening and after the close, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a conference with the Fed’s Kaplan. Oh and don’t forget Brexit will be in the news!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...tures-slide-oil-rebound-fizzles-pound-tumbles
 

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farm talk november 14 2018
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Nov 14, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and all that goes with it.
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Wednesday 14th November 2018
Share Talk


Published on Nov 14, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

Anglo Asian (AAZ)
Bushveld Minerals (BMN)
Itaconix Plc (ITX)
Kibo Energy (KIBO)
Immupharma (IMM)
Kore Potash (KP2)
W Resources (WRES)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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Fighting the Bankers and Their Fiat Money Tyranny.
maneco64


Published on Nov 14, 2018
 

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The Networked Farms Are New Tools for Digitizing Agriculture

by globalintelhub

Wed, 11/14/2018 - 11:08

High-tech production is the newest trend in the dynamically developing agribusiness and digital revolution is changing its face. Agriculture is an important part of any society: it is the origin of the vast majority of food, which compose the essentials of human existence. Having analyzed the most noticeable technological trends in agrarian industry, experts have concluded that IT technologies will be its main driver in the near future.

Recently, The Wall Street Journal reported that more and more startups are attempting to grow vegetables in warehouses and cargo containers, where automatic sensors can monitor the light, humidity and temperature of the soil. These innovators hope to change the entire vegetable-growing industry and enter the market with better, fresher and cheaper products that would overtake traditional agricultural products, which are very dependent on outdoor conditions.

It is no surprise that businessmen and global agricultural companies invest in such projects. To reduce costs, more and more global food manufacturers are paying attention to monitoring and optimizing processes. For example, Masayoshi Son, the richest businessman in Japan, has already invested $200 million in the creation of the Plenty smart-farm complex, which is capable of increasing yields 530 times over conventional fields. He was joined by Eric Schmidt, chairman of the board of directors of Alphabet, and CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos, who also invested in the project.

There are also interesting developments in Russia. For example, Russian scientists have recently presented a unique technology for growing plants which will make it possible to fully replace import by local product. One of these smart strawberry farms has been built in Novosibirsk where, according to Siberian climatologists, the sun shines 70 days a year at most. The state-of-the art portobello mushrooms growing and packing facility Mushroom Rainbow in Kursk region built by developer Alexander Udodov is practically unique in Russia.

Since Russia introduced embargo of agricultural goods against the EU, mushroom cultivation has become one of the most promising domestic food markets as the share of imports had reached 85%. In addition, Russia consumed less portobellos than, for example, Western Europe.

Although in recent years the industry has shown steady growth—in 2016 the market capacity was 44,000 t of mushrooms per year, in 2017 it was 46,200 t, and the share of Russian production increased from 30 to 52%—demand still exceeds supply. According to Alexander Udodov, owner of Mushroom Rainbow, Russia’s leading producer of fresh portobellos, one reason for this is that mushroom cultivation is one of the most high-tech productions in agriculture. The uniqueness of Mushroom Rainbow is that the complex production of organic compost and mushrooms on the same Dutch technology used by leading world producers is concentrated in one place. Such integration is rare for Russia.

Modern technologies offer a lot of attractive opportunities to optimize resources and increase the productivity of agricultural land. However, the introduction of smart technologies requires significant investments, and few are willing to take the leap. For example, New York–based BrightFarms postponed plans to build their farms due to high costs. Even Alphabet abandoned its own project for growing crops indoors in 2015 because it did not reach the planned energy-efficiency target.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-14/networked-farms-are-new-tools-digitizing-agriculture
 

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Fury at Amazon over deal for New York taxpayers to PAY company $74,000 per job and build billionaire Bezos a helipad - as even Fox News' Tucker Carlson agrees with socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's criticism

  • Protesters took to the streets of Queens on Wednesday to decry a new deal to bring Amazon to the area
  • Amazon announced plans to split its 'second headquarters' between Queens and Northern Virginia
  • Critics decry the search as a 'giant ruse' after Amazon picked two wealthiest power centers of the east
  • Local residents decry the plan saying it will drive up rents and overwhelm struggling transit system
  • Democrat New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio tout deal for bringing jobs
  • Amazon has promised 25,000 jobs for Queens, but will get state tax breaks and cash worth $1.85 billion
  • Additional standard city tax credits bring total to $3 billion, plus guarantee Amazon rights to helipad
  • Local officials and Congresswoman-elect Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez blast massive tax incentives offered
  • 'Hate to admit it, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a very good point,' says Fox News host Tucker Carlson
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ew-York-taxpayers-PAY-company-61-200-job.html