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Amazon Workers To Coordinate Black Friday Protests Over "Robot" Conditions, Serious Injuries


by Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/23/2018 - 08:00

Amazon warehouse workers across Europe are planning to stage a coordinated Black Friday demonstrations in protest of "inhuman" and "robot" working conditions.



Hundreds of members of the British trade union GMB will stage demonstrations outside five Amazon fulfillment centers Friday, while warehouse employees in Spain and Italy are planning a 24-hour strike,

"The conditions our members at Amazon are working under are frankly inhuman," said GMB general secretary Tim Roache, who said that Amazon factory workers are "not robots," and noted that they have been breaking bones and being knocked unconscious, requiring ambulance rides to the hospital, according to BuzzFeed.



"Jeff Bezos is the richest bloke on the planet; he can afford to sort this out. You'd think making the workplace safer so people aren't carted out of the warehouse in an ambulance is in everyone’s interest, but Amazon seemingly have no will to get round the table with us as the union representing hundreds of their staff." said Roache. "We're standing up and saying enough is enough, these are people making Amazon its money. People with kids, homes, bills to pay — they're not robots."

The strikes may affect Amazon's nine days of Black Friday sale as GMB members protest in Rugley, Milton Keynes, Warrington, Peterborough and Swansea.

Amazon responded in a statement, saying "Our European Fulfillment Network is fully operational and we continue to focus on delivering for our customers. Any reports to the contrary are simply wrong."

The statement continues: "We are a fair and responsible employer. We believe in continuous improvement across our network and maintain an open and direct dialogue with our associates.



"These are good jobs with highly competitive pay, full benefits, and innovative training programs like Career Choice that pre-pays 95% of tuition for associates. In the UK, as an example, we recently increased the Amazon wage to start from £9.50 an hour and in the London are from £10.50 an hour."

In April of this year, however, journalist and author James Bloodworth reported what he saw after going undercover at an Amazon warehouse in Staffordshire, UK, where he found horrendous conditions in which some workers are forced to pee in bottles.

The warehouse measures 700,000 sq ft and some of the 1,200 workers face a ten minute, quarter-of-a-mile walk to two toilets on the ground floor of the four-storey building.
Undercover investigator James Bloodworth said: "For those of us who worked on the top floor, the closest toilets were down four flights of stairs."
Mr Bloodworth, who worked ten-hour shifts as a picker selecting goods for despatch, walked ten miles a day in the job to research for a book on low-wage Britain.​
He claimed workers were continually monitored for time wasting by supervisors.​
It meant workers operated a “toilet bottle” system.​
Mr Bloodworth said: "People just peed in bottles because they lived in fear of being disciplined over ‘idle time’ and losing their jobs just because they needed the loo." -The Sun

“I’ve worked in warehouses before, but this was nothing like I had experienced. You don’t have proper breaks — by the time you get to the canteen, you only have 15 or 20 minutes for lunch, in a 10-1/2-hour working day. You don’t have time to eat properly to get a drink,” Bloodworth told Business Insider.

Conditions aren't much better in the United States, as we have reported on several occasions.

In 2011, the brutal work environment at an Amazon warehouse in Breinigsville, Pennsylvania were reported in the Morning Call.

Working conditions at Amazon's Lehigh Valley shipping hub gained national attention and a public response from the company after a Sept. 18 article in The Morning Call revealed employee complaints about heat in the warehouse complex and rapid production requirements many could not sustain. Amazon hired ambulance crews to park outside the complex on hot summer days in case workers experienced heat-related problems. A local emergency room doctor who treated Amazon workers for heat stress reported an "unsafe environment" to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which inspected and recommended corrective steps. -Morning Call.​

In 2012, the Seattle Times published a blockbuster report about overworked, underpaid staff who were encouraged to lie about workplace injuries to avoid having to file reports.

Three former workers at Amazon’s warehouse in Campbellsville told The Seattle Times there was pressure to manage injuries so they would not have to be reported to OSHA, such as attributing workplace injuries to pre-existing conditions or treating wounds in a way that did not trigger federal reports.​
“We had doctors who refused to work with us because they would have managers call and argue with them,” he said.​

In 2015, the New York Times revealed that conditions at Amazon headquarters are cutthroat. -Seattle Times

“Nearly every person I worked with, I saw cry at their desk.” -Bo Olson
This seems to diverge from Amazon's claim to being a "fair and responsible employer."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...friday-protests-over-robot-conditions-serious
 

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Sears Bankruptcy Engineered to Benefit Executives and Stiff Workers

Posted on November 22, 2018 by Yves Smith

Yves here. In this Real News Network segment, Bill Black describes the executive “heads I win, tails you lose” formula in the Sears bankruptcy.


GREG WILPERT: It’s The Real News Network and I’m Greg Wilpert, coming to you from Baltimore.

The department store, Sears, is in the process of seeking approval for bankruptcy restructuring that would allow it to pay its top three executives one million dollars in bonuses each if the company goes out of business. Also, the agreement would give other executives as much as 25 million dollars in bonuses. Meanwhile, Sears is closing hundreds of stores and laying off tens of thousands of employees who are receiving no severance pay.

Joining me now to discuss the Sears bankruptcy process is Bill Black. Bill is a white collar criminologist, former financial regulator and Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri – Kansas City. He’s also the author of the book, The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One. Thanks for joining us again, Bill.

BILL BLACK: Thank you.

GREG WILPERT: So according to the bankruptcy court filing, apparently top Sears executives would receive only 50,000 dollars if Sears remains in business, but if it goes out of business, they would receive one million dollars each. Doesn’t this amount to a reward for going out of business? What is the logic behind such compensation decisions, and why would a bankruptcy court even approve of such a thing?

BILL BLACK: So this is called a strategic bankruptcy. And an Ayn Rand devotee, Edward Lampert, through a hedge fund, bought Sears over a decade ago and has absolutely destroyed its value in pursuit of short run gains for himself. And this is, one hopes, the final stage of the looting, but God only knows, it may only be the penultimate stage of it. The whole idea of this kind of strategic bankruptcy is to avoid your debts to workers in particular. You want to reduce your pension fund and, as you say, get out of contracts that would normally require you to pay severance and such. But you have to keep the senior executives loyal to you, in particular, because Lampert was forced out as CEO. So he now is dependent on his former lieutenants to keep him in the game. And it’s a complicated thing that I won’t describe, but Lampert’s entities are involved in this supposed bankruptcy reorganization as what’s called a stalking horse. So he’s playing yet another role and the creditors believe he’s probably trying to loot the place one more time.

Now, Congress, in 2005, changed the bankruptcy laws to try to reduce these abuses. So these are the end stage looting where the senior managers yank a big chunk of the remaining cash out, and as you say, they are taking it straight out of the mouths of the workers’ kids. And Congress said you can’t pay people just for staying with a company in circumstances where there is a bankruptcy filing, you have to pay them for extraordinary performance that is way off the charts difficult to do. Except that this bonus pool that you talked about, the first tranche, the first group of this, pays off basically in two months. So there’s no conceivable way that these executives are doing anything extraordinary, and if they did, that would probably be worse news because what they would be doing is another short-term scam. Because these are the same managers that have been absolutely destroying Sears for a decade.

GREG WILPERT: Now, presumably, bankrupt companies are not required to pay severance, but clearly the executives are receiving a form of severance pay in the form of bonuses that they’re about to receive. So what does this say about the labor and bankruptcy laws of the United States? I mean, how does this even make any sense?

BILL BLACK: Well, it’s been a rigged system for decades. And Congress keeps coming back and making it more rigged. So anyone’s who’s got a college degree and has had these terrible debts pile up knows that they pretty much can’t discharge in bankruptcy anymore any of their student loans, and the only exception was Obama was finally forced into dealing with some of these fraudulent colleges, these for-profit colleges, and Betsy DeVos has gutted that as well. So it’s rigged against students, it’s rigged against workers and it’s rigged in favor of the executives. As I said, in fairness, Congress tried in 2005 to restrict this ability to pay something, as you say, akin to severance to the top executives. So they shouldn’t, in fact, be eligible at Sears. Indeed, all of them should have been fired and a trustee in bankruptcy should have been appointed.

Now, a trustee in bankruptcy can be appointed by the bankruptcy court where they don’t trust the management. This was done, for example, at Enron. And then you can have real investigations, as they did at Enron, that discovered and documented all the massive frauds, including the frauds by the top executives and the bankers. The unwillingness to do that, even in a place like Sears that has a terrible track record for over a decade by this management team of destroying value, shows you the complete outrage, that they’re willing to leave in control precisely the people who have looted and destroyed what once was one America’s great corporations, and even though they have a track record, as I say, of over a decade of just absolute dissolution, destruction of value.

GREG WILPERT: Now, why is a trusteeship in bankruptcy not being considered in this case? I mean, what is going on with it in terms of the bankruptcy courts?

BILL BLACK: So the strong presumption is against the appointment of the trustees. In bankruptcy jargon, the typical thing in a corporation when it’s called a reorganization, that’s Chapter 11 as opposed to Chapter 7, which is liquidation under the Bankruptcy Code, the strong presumption is that the debtor in possession, the DIP, as they’re appropriately called – in other words, the CEO ran the place into the ground gets to continue running it under the theory that they know the place best. In a place that’s simply mildly incompetent and had tough economic times, you can see the logic. But in a situation where much of this time has been in the strongest economic expansion, the Obama-Trump expansion is one of the largest and longest in U.S. history, and Sears has completely collapsed in it, the presumption should be the opposite in that kind of institution, especially when there are many serious allegations of insider abuse, as they’re most assuredly are at Sears, the strong presumption should be, A, that we appoint a trustee, and B, that that trustee investigates prior senior management.

GREG WILPERT: So now, the labor campaign group, Rise Up Retail, has pointed out that this is actually something also that happened with Toys R Us when they went out of business, that the top executive received millions and millions of dollars on this pay-in, the workers, the employees, didn’t even get severance. How common is this practice of providing these kinds of severance bonuses while paying not severance to laid off workers?

BILL BLACK: Oh, this is absolutely the norm. And again, strategic bankruptcies where you don’t necessarily have to go into bankruptcy, but you do so to screw the workers and benefit the executives, are extremely common among the wealthy. And that’s being done in this case, and Toys R Us is a good example. What kind of bonuses – remember, in 2005, Congress changes the law to say you’re only supposed to be able to get a bonus for really extraordinary efforts. Well, Toys R Us just died. It wasn’t brought back to life as some wonderful, efficient entity through brilliance of the management team under bankruptcy. So under the very logic of the 2005 Reform Act, they should have gotten zero in the way of bonuses. So you can see that’s yet another area where, in practice, the bankruptcy judges tend to be extremely generous to the senior management that have looted and destroyed the place, and extremely hostile to the workers. It’s an outrageous, utterly stacked system, and it’s getting worse, and it should be a major area where the House of Representatives, under the new majority, should be acting to reform the law.

GREG WILPERT: Okay. Well we’re going to have to leave it there for now. I was speaking to Bill Black, Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. Thanks again, Bill, for having joined us today.

BILL BLACK: Thank you.

GREG WILPERT: So if you like Real News Network stories like this one, please keep in mind that we have started our winter fundraiser and need your help to reach our goal of raising 400,000 dollars. Every dollar that you donate will be matched. And unlike practically all other news outlets, we do not accept support from governments or corporations. Please do what you can today.


This entry was posted in Free markets and their discontents, Hedge funds, Income disparity, Legal, Private equity, The destruction of the middle class on November 22, 2018 by Yves Smith.
 

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Fanta: How One Man In Nazi Germany Created a Global Soda
Business Casual


Published on Nov 23, 2018
 

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farm talk November 22 18
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Nov 22, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and al that goes with it.
 

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Recession Soon? Nonsense, Says Top Trump Adviser
Silver Fortune


Published on Nov 23, 2018
Insightful, or words that history will not treat kindly?

Help support the Silver Fortune Channel through my sponsor, SD Bullion - 10 oz. of Silver at Spot! https://sdbullion.com/sf

Support Silver Fortune through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/silverfortune


Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
 

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Bookstream and Q & A.
maneco64


Streamed live 5 hours ago
I will be going over some of the books that I have read and recommend. I will be also taking questions from the viewers and looking at what the markets are doing on this Friday after Thanksgiving.

"The Templars: The Rise and fall of God's Holy Warriors." by Dan Jones: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0...
Use promo code maneco64 to get 0.5% discount at https://www.goldinvestments.co.uk/

Support the channel:

maneco64 store: https://teespring.com/en-GB/stores/ma...

https://www.paypal.me/maneco64
https://www.patreon.com/user?u=3730528
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 23 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 23, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 23 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 23, 2018
 

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Counterparty Risk Will Wipe Out Many Investors in the Next Crisis.
maneco64


Published on Nov 24, 2018
 

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WEEK AHEAD COMMODITY REPORT: 26-30, November 2018: Gold & Crude Oil Price Forecast
TheGoldAndSilverClub


Published on Nov 24, 2018
JOIN THE LIVE TRADING ROOM HERE ▶ http://www.jointhelivetradingroom.com/
▶ To Receive LIVE Trade Alerts, Mentorship & Expert Insights For Profitable Commodity Trading.

-------------------
The Gold & Silver Club is an international Commodities Trading, Research and Advisory Group specializing in the Metals, Energy and Agriculture markets.
Learn More ▶ https://www.thegoldandsilverclub.com/
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© 2018 The Gold & Silver Club Limited
 

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Saturday Scrap - You won't believe ONE price...
iScrap App


Published on Nov 24, 2018
Check Scrap Prices Today: https://iScrapApp.com/ - Tune in every Saturday for a rundown of some of the recent prices we have seen reported on the iScrap App. Be sure to report your own prices: https://iscrapapp.com/

Download the iScrap App:
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If you have video requests for us, comment below or email us at: info@iscrapapp.com. Happy iScrapping!
 

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USA and China at Loggerheads - How will it end?
Illuminati Silver


Published on Nov 19, 2018
https://www.illuminatisilver.com

USA and China at Loggerheads - How will it end?

Today is Sunday 18th November 2018 and we are briefly reporting on the USA and China Dispute at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

US stocks rose at the end of last week, partly on renewed hopes that trade tensions between the US and China may be thawing ahead of the upcoming G-20 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, President Trump told reporters on Friday he may not impose more tariffs after China sent the United States a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions.

However, this was thwarted and cast into the dustbin when Vice President Mike Pence traded sharp barbs with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in back-to-back speeches at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in Papua New Guinea, which confirmed yet again that neither country is willing to compromise in the escalating trade war.

China gained some applause on Saturday when President Xi said that implementing tariffs and breaking up supply chains was “short-sighted” and “doomed to failure.” He also called for a stronger World Trade Organization.

After Xi’s speech was Vice President Pence’s - who in recent weeks has been pushing an aggressive anti-China agenda – and he practically threw down the gauntlet to China on trade and security by saying the US will not back down from its trade dispute with China, and might even double its tariffs, unless Beijing bows to U.S. demands: “we have taken decisive action to address our imbalance with China,” …. we put tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, and we could more than double that number."

He added to a questioner;

“We’re in a very strong position……The American people know that we have to do something to reset this relationship with China economically.”

Pence told delegates the U.S. offers countries in the region “a better option’’ for economic and diplomatic relations than Beijing’s heavy-handed approach.

The Summit ended today/Sunday in unprecedented chaos and disarray, without agreement on a joint communique for the first time in its history.

It is clear that the US and China are now locked horn in a bitter dispute. China is already purchasing as much gold as it can and selling as many dollar-denominated debt instruments as it dares. It is clear to us that China is beginning to flex its muscles or perhaps using a different analogy shedding its pupillage skin’.

President Trump seems at least to want the pupil to learn more lessons while the pupil believes its time it becomes the teacher.
During this intervening period, we can expect some turmoil and our assessment short term is that when markets open tomorrow it will not be positive. This will also have some impact on the US dollar too perhaps causing some weakness but will be positive for gold and silver prices.

How will all of this pan out? Our view is that both nations will resolve this issue relatively soon, as both have too much at stake not to. However, Trump’s reputation as a tough negotiator is on the line and the Chinese do not like to ‘lose face’ so both have much to lose if they give away too many concessions.

We have produced quite a few videos on China in recent weeks and months because this is an unfolding story with severe consequences both short term and long term. Dollar hegemony is being challenged by the No2 world economic Power House China which intends to become No 1 in the foreseeable future.
 

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Ten Years After Crisis the Bankers Still Have Total Disdain for the Public.
maneco64


Published on Nov 25, 2018
 

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Goldman Sachs, Enron and the Chart of Bankruptcy.
maneco64


Published on Nov 26, 2018
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Monday 26th November 2018
Share Talk


Published on Nov 26, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

Amerisur (AMER)
Anglesey Mining (AYM)
Erris Resources (ERIS)
Kodal Minerals (KOD)
Kore Potash (KP2)
Mobile Streams (MOS)
Powerhouse Ener (PHE)
Rockrose Energy (RRE)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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Futures, Global Stocks Surge As Italy, Fed Optimism Halts Rout


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/26/2018 - 07:13

After last week's market woes, stocks have started the new week in a sea of green, with equity markets rising around the globe, buoyed by renewed optimism over trade and easier financial conditions ahead of this week's Feed speeches and key G-20 summit between Trump and Xi, while European shares surged as Italian officials adopted a more conciliatory tone resulting in hopes Italy's populist government is willing to concede in the long-running standoff with Brussels.



S&P futures rose 1.2%, erasing losses from the latter part of last week, after decent Black Friday retail sales data, boosted by strong Asian and European risk sentiment.



In Europe, banking and automaker shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index higher, with all sectors in the green, after stocks rose in most of Asia except for China and Australia. Italy’s sovereign bond yields tumbled after the Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini signaled a new openness to alter the country’s budget deficit target for next year; BTPs rally through the 100-DMA and short-dated futures push above September highs ahead of this evening’s "decisive" budget talks as the Bund/BTP spread tightened ~19bps to 286bps.



Europe's Stoxx 600 Banks Index surged on Monday as news on Brexit and Italian developments lifted the broader market: banks advance 2.6%, topping the European benchmark’s 1.3% gain after Italy's populist cabinet suggested he is willing to change the nation’s budget deficit target for next year. Greek markets also rallied as Eurobank revealed a plan to deal with troubled loans.

Italy's FTSE MIB surged up as much as 3.2%, its biggest one-day gain since June, and outperforms its peers as Italian Banks benefited from the positive BTP price action amid reports that the country’s coalition government is discussing reducing the 2019 deficit target to 2.0%-2.1% from 2.4%. In turn hinting that Italy are willing to be flexible on the budget after the European Commission rejected it earlier this month. Italian PM Conte and Deputy PM Salvini have since declined to comment on specific numbers. As such, Italian banks UBI +6.1%, UniCredit +6%, BPM +5.3%, Intesa Sanpaolo +5.3%, were among the top performers in the index, while



The Italian Government is to meet Monday evening to discuss a potential reduction of the deficit goal; Il Messaggero also reported that Italian Finance Minister Tria will bring various simulations on budget changes to top-level Italian government this evening in Rome. Additionally, are discussing reducing the 2019 deficit target to 2.0-2.1% from the current 2.4% target.

Elsehwhere, Italian Deputy PM Di Maio says budget deficit target reduction is not a problem as long as budget measures remain the same. Adding that the government remains committed to reform, and there can be a dialogue with the EU on the deficit target; also seeking to talk to the EU regarding more investments. Says there can be dialogue with the EU on the deficit target; also wants to talk to the EU regarding more investments.Additionally, Salvini said they've had "positive feedback" form Brussels when asked about lowering their 2019 deficit target, but refuses to talk about numbers. Italy's PM Conte has declined to comment about the specific numbers on the budget.

Elsewhere, UK banks have also received a lift after the European Council endorsed UK PM May’s Brexit deal, which still has to pass through parliament, with Dec 12th touted as the possible date for a vote, hence RBS (+2.6%) and HSBC (+2.6%) and Barclays (+2.6%) shares are higher. Gilts will be focused on PM May’s speech to Parliament at 3:30pm London time.

Credit-default swap indexes for both European high-grade and high-yield debt fell in tandem amid the general risk-on mood, with the cost of insuring against default retreating from a two-year high

Earlier, Asian stocks began the week broadly positive as stock markets picked themselves up from the Thanksgiving holiday lull, but with upside capped amid ongoing commodity weakness. ASX 200 (-0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were mixed with Australia dampened by losses in miners after the broad weakness across energy and metals in which crude slipped nearly 8% on Friday, while the Japanese benchmark was propped up by favorable currency moves. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) conformed to the broad rebound in sentiment, but with the mainland less decisive as Chinese commodity prices followed suit to their global peers in which Dalian iron ore futures dropped around 6% at the open and China oil futures hit limit down. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw mild gains amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end and which coincided with a decline in the Japanese 10yr and 20yr yields to their lowest in 3 months.

The yen and dollar were broadly weaker, Treasuries edged lower with the 10Y TSY at 3.05%, while high-beta currencies gained as global equities advanced. The euro followed Italy’s stocks and bonds higher as the nation’s government signaled it was looking to lower its 2019 budget deficit target. Sterling advanced after EU leaders agreed to the Brexit deal and as Theresa May prepared to sell her Brexit deal to U.K. lawmakers Monday, while oil attempted to form a short-term base.

In geopolitical news, Ukraine accused Russia of an act of war after the latter fired at Ukrainian ships and seized 3 vessels off Crimea, while Russia said the Ukrainian ships entered its territorial waters near Crimea. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Poroshenko has reportedly asked Parliament to meet on Monday to discuss martial law. On Monday, Russia reopened the Kerch Strait near Crimea for shipping according to sources.

In overnight central bank speak, ECB's Praet said that recent developments indicate some loss of growth momentum, with factors related to protectionism, financial market volatility and vulnerabilities in emerging markets are creating headwinds that are becoming increasingly noticeable. And the underlying strength of the euro area economy continues to support our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed. Also says that they will need to clarify, possibly in the December meeting, what the ECB means by reinvesting for an extended period of time. Adds that they need big changes in scenarios to not follow rate guidance, it is clear that risks to the downside have increased noticeably.

Looking ahead, investors will turn their focus this week to Federal Reserve speeches and policy-meeting minutes that may give clues on the 2019 rates outlook, and a key sit-down between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump ahead of the next scheduled escalation in tariff hikes. With bond traders having reduced expectations for the pace of U.S. monetary policy tightening, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has the opportunity of shedding light on prospects for a pause in a speech Wednesday.

“The market will be looking for potentially some signs of dovish overtures coming through” from the Fed this week, John Lockton, head of investment strategy in Sydney at Wilsons Advisory & Stockbroking, told Bloomberg TV. On trade, investors “are looking for a pathway. I am not sure we are going to see a detailed agreement. A pathway to success, a pathway to an outcome will be highly supportive of equities globally,” he said.

WTI (+1.1%) and Brent (+1.8%) have retraced recent losses as the USD eases from highs and market risk-sentiment improves after the complex plummeted almost 8% on Friday amid concerns of a supply glut and lower January oil demand. This comes as Saudi Arabia reported that crude production stands at an all time high at 11.1-11.3mln BPD. WTI flirts with the USD 51.00/bbl handle while Brent hovers around USD 60.00/bbl in early European trade, with traders keeping an eye on any hints to next year’s oil production from OPEC+ countries, with the Dec 6th meeting looming. However, we may get some sort of direction just before December with the Saudi Crown Prince and Russian president meeting on the side lines of the G20 summit this coming weekend. Furthermore, some traders are noting that hedge funds haven’t been this pessimistic in regard to global oil prices for almost three years. Finally, Shanghai International energy Exchange said they will raise the margin requirement for crude oil futures to 10% from 7%, effective Nov 28th.

In metals, gold (+0.2%) is higher as the yellow metal moves conversely to USD actions, while silver (+1.0%) outperforms with markets gearing up for the FOMC minutes release later this week. Elsewhere, base metals hover near last-week’s lows with the global growth slowdown weighing on investors’ minds.

Expected data include Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. StoneCo is among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 2,663.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 358.30
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 151.35
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 485.39
  • Nikkei up 0.8% to 21,812.00
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,632.20
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 26,376.18
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 2,575.81
  • Sensex up 1% to 35,332.84
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,671.57
  • Kospi up 1.2% to 2,083.02
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.359%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1380
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.6 bps to 3.036%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to 1.602%
  • Brent futures up 1.8% to $59.85/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,227.10
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 96.68
Top Overnight News
  • Theresa May will begin selling her Brexit agreement to skeptical politicians in Britain on Monday with a warning that “there is not a better deal available.” Macron’s fish fight offers May a glimpse of Brexit battles ahead
  • The British Parliament will probably reject May’s Brexit deal, but then approve it on a second attempt amid market pressure, according to UBS Wealth Management’s chief economist Paul Donovan. He reckons that prediction is now the consensus view in financial markets
  • Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini signaled a new openness to change Italy’s budget deficit target for next year. Asked whether a 2.4 percent target is set in stone, Salvini told newswire AdnKronos: “I think nobody is fixated on this, if there is a budget which makes the country grow, it could be 2.2 percent or 2.6 percent”
  • Switzerland overwhelmingly rejected a plan that could have caused a worsening of relations with the European Union by forcing the government in Bern to renegotiate international treaties
  • Oil traded below $51 a barrel on concerns record output by Saudi Arabia may exacerbate a supply glut, and as President Donald Trump continues to call for lower prices
  • Russia fired on Ukrainian warships and injured some of their crew members, marking a dramatic renewal of tensions between the ex-Soviet neighbors near the peninsula of Crimea that President Vladimir Putin annexed four years ago
  • ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet said the end of the institution’s bond-buying program this year doesn’t mean policy is being tightened, as he pointed to “increasingly noticeable” headwinds for the economy
Asian equities began the week mostly positive as stock markets picked themselves up from the Thanksgiving holiday lull, but with upside capped amid the ongoing commodity rout. ASX 200 (-0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) were mixed with Australia dampened by losses in miners after the broad weakness across energy and metals in which crude slipped nearly 8% on Friday, while the Japanese benchmark was propped up by favourable currency moves. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) conformed to the broad rebound in sentiment, but with the mainland less decisive as Chinese commodity prices followed suit to their global peers in which Dalian iron ore futures dropped around 6% at the open and China oil futures hit limit down. Finally, 10yr JGBs saw mild gains amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 680bln of JGBs in the belly to super-long end and which coincided with a decline in the Japanese 10yr and 20yr yields to their lowest in 3 months.

Top Asian News
  • Kuroda: BOJ Can Shrink Balance Sheet at Suitable Pace at Exit
  • Hong Kong’s Hottest IPOs Bring Worst Returns to Investors
  • Asia-Based Macro Hedge Funds Stumble in October Amid Sell-Off
  • Hong Kong Stocks Rise on Expectations Fed May Slow Rate Hikes
  • Japan Life Insurers Cut Dollar Hedges Below 50%: Deutsche Bank
European equities started the week on the front foot (Eurostoxx 50 +1.1%) following the upbeat performance experienced over in Asia, with moves exacerbated as US participants re-enter the market following the long Thanksgiving weekend. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.8%) largely outperforms its peers as Italian Banks benefit from the positive BTP price action amid reports via government sources that the country’s coalition government are discussing reducing the 2019 deficit target to 2.0%-2.1% from 2.4%. In turn hinting that Italy are willing to be flexible on the budget after the European Commission rejected it earlier this month. Italian PM Conte and Deputy PM Salvini have since declined to comment on specific numbers. As such, Ubi Banca (+5.9%), Unicredit (+5.9%), Bper Banca (+5.7%), Banco BPM (+5.1%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (+5.1%) all rest at the top of the Italian benchmark. Elsewhere, UK banks have also received a lift after the European Council endorsed UK PM May’s Brexit deal, which still has to pass through parliament, with Dec 10th, 11th, or 12th touted as the possible dates for a meaningful vote, hence RBS (+2.6%) and HSBC (+2.6%) and Barclays (+2.6%) shares are higher. In terms of sectors financials are largely outperforming amid Brexit and Italian budget developments, whilst consumer staples underperform. Looking at stock specifics, Melrose (-5.0%) shares dropped after Sky News reported that the company is weighing options for GKN Powder Metallurgy division with a “low-ball” offer valuing the business at GBP 1.6bln, below analyst expectations. On the flip side Eurofins Scientific rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 after the company confirmed their guidance.

Top European News
  • Russian Assets Retreat as Ukraine Tension Adds to Sanctions Risk
  • Greece’s Eurobank Plots Revival in $8 Billion Bad-Loan Sale
  • Vectura Plunges After Asthma-Device Failure Raises Concern
  • Saint-Gobain to Sell German Building Unit in Post-Sika Overhaul
In FX, the Usd and DXY have drifted down from highs amidst the all the above (Yen aside of course), with the DXY holding just above 96.500 vs a whisker over 97.00 at one stage and nearest tech support and resistance coming in at 96.318 and 97.055 respectively.
  • AUD/NZD/CAD - A broad risk revival and commodity comeback of sorts has lifted the Antipodean Dollars alongside their Canadian counterpart that is benefiting from the recovery in oil prices especially. Aud/Usd is firmly back above 0.7250, while the Kiwi has managed to climb over 0.6800, albeit only just after a knee-jerk downturn in wake of weaker than forecast NZ Q3 retail sales overnight and ahead of trade data later today. Meanwhile, the Loonie has pared losses from 1.3200+ to circa 1.3190-85, but may struggle to get beyond 1.3180 where heavy supply is reported. Note also, a major US bank has entered a long Usd/Cad position at 1.3192, targeting 1.3450 with a 1.3075 stop.
  • EUR - Also encouraged by the aforementioned upturn in risk appetite, but the single currency has appreciated independently on the latest Italian budget headlines indicating that the coalition Government may be ready to revise the 2019 deficit target, and significantly from 2.4% to 2.1% ore even 2%. This, ahead of a meeting in Rome tonight where Finance Minister Tria is expected to lay out several compromises for top officials to consider. Eur/Usd has bounced towards 1.1400 vs the low 1.1300 area, but not quite as far as its 30 DMA at 1.1394.
  • GBP - The Pound has derived some support from official EU approval for the Brexit withdrawal agreement, with Cable back above 1.2800 and trying to clear 1.2850, but not convincingly as UK PM May begins the arduous task of selling the deal to her party and parliament before a meaningful vote on December 12 (or perhaps 1-2 days earlier if the roadshow goes well).
  • JPY - The G10 loser and underperformer as safe-haven demand/flows wane and Usd/Jpy clears 113.00 with a bit more vigour to a 113.35 peak and fleetingly, but not sustainably thus far, a 50% Fib at 113.25.
In commodities, WTI (+1.1%) and Brent (+1.8%) are retracing recent losses as the USD eases from highs and market risk- sentiment improves after the complex plummeted almost 8% on Friday amid concerns of a supply glut and lower January oil demand. This comes as Saudi Arabia reported that crude production stands at an all time high at 11.1-11.3mln BPD. WTI flirts with the USD 51.00/bbl handle while Brent hovers around USD 60.00/bbl in early European trade, with traders keeping an eye on any hints to next year’s oil production from OPEC+ countries, with the Dec 6th meeting looming. However, we may get some sort of direction just before December with the Saudi Crown Prince and Russian president meeting on the side lines of the G20 summit this coming weekend. Furthermore, some traders are noting that hedge funds haven’t been this pessimistic in regard to global oil prices for almost three years. Finally, Shanghai International energy Exchange said they will raise the margin requirement for crude oil futures to 10% from 7%, effective Nov 28th. In the metals complex, gold (+0.2%) is higher as the yellow metal moves conversely to USD actions, while silver (+1.0%) outperforms with markets gearing up for the FOMC minutes release later this week. Elsewhere, base metals hover near last-week’s lows with the global growth slowdown weighing on investors’ minds.

On today's calendar, it's a fairly quiet start to the week for data on Monday with the Chicago Fed's October National activity index and the Dallas Fed's November manufacturing activity index. Away from the data, it's a busy day for central bank speak, with the ECB's Draghi, Praet, Nowotny and Coeure all speaking at different times along with the BoE's Carney and former Fed Governor Greenspan.

US Event Calendar
  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.2
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 24.5, prior 29.4
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap.
Yesterday marked a month until Christmas and there’s a lot to resolve before we can overeat, drink too much, watch bad TV and argue with our families.

In terms of major events, in reverse order we have a FOMC meeting on December 19th (will we be debating an imminent pause by then?), the ECB equivalent on the 13th (surely QE to end... but the recent data...), the House of Commons vote on the Brexit WA likely earlier that week (and all the associated consequences), a big OPEC meeting on December 6th (after a 31% slump in 7 weeks since the peak), and a crucial G20 meeting in Buenos Aires this weekend where US/China trade stands at a major fork in the road with the ramifications likely to be significant for years to come. We will also learn more about the future relationship between the EC and Italy over the next month so plenty of opportunity for the financial world to look very different over Turkey and Xmas pudding than it does today - for better or for worse.

As for this week the G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday looms over us and headlines will start as leaders start to gather in Buenos Aires from today onwards. To be honest the G20 overall is a sideshow to the sideline meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping to discuss trade. Recent comments (per Bloomberg) from White House economic advisor Kudlow have been mixed, however Kudlow has said that Trump is trying to “inject a note of optimism into trade talks with China” while Trump himself has been reported as saying that “China wants to have a deal”, suggesting that the President has been siding with the more pro-free trade advisers in the White House recently.

Since then, the news that China hawk Navarro will not be attending the meeting also lends some support to the view of possible progress at the meeting. That being said, it’s still extremely difficult to predict the outcome but expect plenty of headlines and hints through this week.

Elsewhere Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday evening which will likely be closely watched in light of what has been greater discussion in recent weeks from officials on downside risks to the outlook and softer inflation. In addition to that, Vice-Chair Clarida speaks tomorrow and will be closely watched in light of his dovish remarks 10 days which seemed to signal a notable repricing of Fed expectations. The FOMC minutes on Thursday may be a touch backward looking but are always interesting. The data highlights are US PCE (Thursday) and European flash inflation (Thursday/Friday). Watch out for Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales data as well for a barometer on the consumer.

In terms of weekend news, seeing a Sunday EU leaders summit brought back memories of the crisis years and fraught midnight statements. However yesterday’s Brexit summit saw EU leaders sign off the Withdrawal Agreement in 38 minutes and before lunch! Many quipped on social media that for EU leaders to sign it off that quickly it must be a bad deal for the UK. Joking aside we are at a crossroads as European leaders yesterday warned that there was no better deal on offer. However the Parliamentary arithmetic still points to this deal being firmly rejected in the House of Commons. Interestingly PM May refused to answer a question on ruling out resigning if her deal failed to pass.

It seems all outcomes are possible here. Personally I can’t help thinking that a second referendum is getting closer and closer to being the most likely of 3 or 4 outcomes. However whether that’s a good or bad idea I cant help worry that the unintended consequence of this if “remain” win is that British politics will be thrown into chaos for many years. Interestingly the Brexit referendum in 2016 led to the general election in 2017 seeing the two mainstream parties (Conservatives and Labour) with their largest combined support for several decades as UKIP saw their vote collapse. This is in sharp contrast to the other big three EU countries. France saw both established parties fail to make it into the second round of the election last year for their first time in 60 years of the current set-up. Germany has seen the ruling CDU and CSU at their lowest levels of support over a similar period and in Italy as we know we now have two populist parties in Government.

If the UK votes a second time to stay in the EU then we could see a renewed surge in support for UKIP or maybe even more extremist parties. So whatever the outcome it does feel a bit like “whack-a-mole” with unintended consequences from all sides.

Asian markets have started the week on a positive footing with the Nikkei (+0.57%), Hang Seng (+1.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.29%) and Kospi (+1.16%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.45%) are pointing towards a positive start and oil prices are showing signs of stabilizing (WTI prices up +1.03% and Brent +1.62%) this morning. In terms of data releases, Japan’s preliminary November manufacturing PMI softened to 51.8 from 52.9 in the previous month. Elsewhere in a sign of escalating geo-political tensions Ukraine’s Navy said that Russian warships opened fire on Sunday on a group of its military vessels in neutral waters near the peninsula of Crimea while adding that three of its ships were captured by the Russian military. The UN Security Council is all set to hold an emergency meeting at 11 a.m. today in New York to discuss the situation. The Russian ruble is down -0.57% in early trade this morning.

In other news, Italy’s Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini has showed willingness to change next year’s budget deficit target in an interview with newswire AndKronos where he said nobody is fixated on 2.4% deficit target. He said “if there is a budget which makes the country grow, it could be 2.2 percent or 2.6 percent.” In the meantime, Repubblica reported over the weekend that the EC President Juncker has told Italian Premier Conte that spending cuts of €6bn-7bn may be sufficient to trim Italy’s planned 2019 deficit. This indicates that both the sides are now showing some openness to find some common ground. Italian Deputy Premiers Salvini and Di Maio are due to meet Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to discuss the budget this evening. Elsewhere, the PBoC’s Deputy Govenor Zhu Hexin said over the weekend that the PBoC will increase the oversight of financial holding companies due to an increasing number of risks to their operations with potential measures likely to include implementing stricter controls on market access and closer supervision of sources of funding and capital-adequacy ratios, amongst others.

Focus on Friday centered on preliminary November PMI data from Europe, which continued to point to softening macro momentum. The composite euro area PMI printed down -0.7pts at 52.4, compared to consensus expectations for 53.0. The German figure was 52.2, as the manufacturing index fell -0.6pts to 51.6 and services declined -1.4pts to 53.3. Somewhat worryingly, the readings indicated softening external demand (new export orders down -1pt to 46.6) and internal demand (services dropping faster than manufacturing). French figures came in slightly stronger, with the composite index at 54.0, actually +0.1pts higher than expected. We won’t get the Italian readings until December 3 and 5, but our economists estimate that the non-core countries must be down around -0.5pts on average, indicating that the slowdown from October is not completely transitory.

Given the US Thanksgiving holiday (US markets were open on Friday but trading volumes were thin and exchanges closed early), the European data drove price action. An MNI article said that the ECB may change its assessment of the balance of risks to its economic outlook, raising the potential spectre of an extension to QE beyond December. The euro shed -0.58% to trade -0.68% lower on the week, and German Bunds rallied -3.0bps (-2.7bps on the week). European equities ended the week lower with the Stoxx 600 down -1.04% (though it rallied +0.40% on Friday, boosted by the weaker euro).

Other risk markets ended the weak lower, as oil continued to slide, with Brent crude oil down -11.92% (-6.07% Friday) to $58.80 on the combination of the strong supply outlook and the softer demand data. Credit continued to be pressured, with HY CDX indexes widening +17.2bps and +17.0bps in the US and Europe, respectively on the week. Emerging market equities shed -2.84% (-1.17% Friday), with Chinese bourses underperforming as the Shanghai Composite retreated -3.72% (-2.49% Friday). As mentioned, US markets lacked major drivers, but the S&P 500 still ended the week -2.54% (-0.66% Friday) and the FANG index underperformed -6.67% (-1.47% Friday). The dollar rallied +0.47% (+0.21% Friday) as Treasuries rallied -2.4bps on the week (all of which came on Friday)

It's a fairly quiet start to the week for data on Monday. In Europe, we get Germany's November IFO survey, while in the US, we get the Chicago Fed's October National activity index and the Dallas Fed's November manufacturing activity index. Away from the data, it's a busy day for central bank speak, with the ECB's Draghi, Praet, Nowotny and Coeure all speaking at different times along with the BoE's Carney and former Fed Governor Greenspan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-26/futures-global-stocks-surge-italy-fed-optimism-halts-rout
 

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Key Events In A Tumultuous Week: The Fed Tips Its Hand, Trump And Xi Meet At G-20


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/26/2018 - 08:50


It's a busy week for Fed watchers many of whom are expecting more details on whether the US central bank will pull back on its plan for 3 rate hikes in the coming year. Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday evening will likely be closely watched in light of what has been greater discussion in recent weeks from officials on downside risks to the outlook and softer inflation. In addition to that, Vice-Chair Clarida speaks tomorrow and will also be closely watched in light of his dovish remarks 10 days which seemed to signal a notable repricing of Fed expectations.

Oon Thursday we’ll also get the FOMC minutes from the November 7th-8th meeting . The meeting failed to throw up any surprises and only included minimal changes to the FOMC statement, however we should learn more about the Committee’s discussion of its operating framework, potential for another technical adjustment to the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER), views about recent market volatility and the potential effects of changes in trade policy.

Meanwhile, the G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday looms over us and headlines will start as leaders start to gather in Buenos Aires from today onwards. The G20 overall is a sideshow to the sideline meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping to discuss trade.

Recent comments (per Bloomberg) from White House economic advisor Kudlow have been mixed, however Kudlow has said that Trump is trying to “inject a note of optimism into trade talks with China” while Trump himself has been reported as saying that “China wants to have a deal”, suggesting that the President has been siding with the more pro-free trade advisers in the White House recently. Since then, the news that China hawk Navarro will not be attending the meeting also lends some support to the view of possible progress at the meeting. That being said, it’s still extremely difficult to predict the outcome but expect plenty of headlines and hints through this week.

As Deutsche Bank notes, the data highlights in the US next week include the October PCE inflation report and second reading of Q3 GDP. For the former, the consensus is for a +0.2% mom core reading, however base effects are expected to push the annual reading down one-tenth to +1.9% yoy and therefore below the Fed’s target again. Sellside economists have noted that the healthcare component of the PPI, which fell in October and which helps determine the corresponding component in the PCE price index, has been revised up meaningfully in October during the past two years. This finding suggests there may not be as much downside to core PCE inflation. For Q3 GDP, the market is expecting a small upward revision of one-tenth to +3.6% qoq saar with downward revisions to retail sales offset by a modest upward revision to construction activity

As for other data due in the US next week, we’ll get more housing data on Tuesday which has started to come under the spotlight again, with the FHFA house price, Q3 house price purchase and S&P CoreLogic house price indices all due. We’ll also get October new home sales on Wednesday and October pending home sales on Thursday. The November consumer confidence print on Tuesday, October advance goods trade balance on Wednesday, and various regional manufacturing reports during the week are the other highlights.

In Europe, the highlights are likely to be the preliminary November CPI reports with data due in Germany and Spain on Thursday, and France, Italy and the broader Euro Area on Friday. In China we’ll get the official November PMIs on Friday while in Japan we get the manufacturing PMI on Monday.

Over at the ECB, President Draghi is scheduled to make comments on Monday when he addresses the European Parliament’s committee for economic and monetary affairs, and then at an event in Frankfurt on Thursday. ECB officials Praet, Coeure and Nowotny will also speak on Monday, before Nouy and Costa speak on Wednesday. Over at the BoE, Governor Carney speaks at an event on Monday. The BoJ’s Masai will also speak on Thursday.

Other potentially interesting events worth noting next week include Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He addressing a Germany-China investment and trade forum on Monday, the BoE’s Financial Stability Report and stress test results on Wednesday, BoE presenting its independent assessment of Brexit's impact on the financial system and UK economy to the Treasury Committee on Thursday, and a 5 and 10-year BTP auction on Thursday which is likely to face renewed pressure in light of disappointing retail investor demand at recent auctions. Finally the G-20 Summit may also include the US, Mexico and Canada signing their new trade agreement.




Below is a breakdown of key events by day courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
  • Monday: It's a fairly quiet start to the week for data on Monday. Overnight, we'll get Japan's preliminary November manufacturing PMI. In Europe, we get Germany's November IFO survey, while in the US, we get the Chicago Fed's October National activity index and the Dallas Fed's November manufacturing activity index. Away from the data, it's a busy day for central bank speak, with the ECB's Draghi, Praet, Nowotny and Coeure all speaking at different times along with the BoE's Carney and former Fed Governor Greenspan.
  • Tuesday: Overnight on Tuesday, we get China's October industrial profits data. In Europe, we get France's November consumer confidence reading and the UK's November CBI retail sales release. In the US, we get the September FHFA house price index, Q3 house price purchase index and September S&P CoreLogic index in addition to the November consumer confidence print. There's also more central bank speak with the Fed's Clardia, Bostic, Evans and George all due to speak along with the ECB's Nouy and Costa. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is also due to address a Germany-China investment and trade forum.
  • Wednesday: The main highlights on Wednesday are Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Economic Club of New York, and the second reading of Q3 GDP in the US. Prior to this we get the UK's November BRC shop price index reading followed by the BoE's financial stability report and stress test results. Following that, we get Euro Area October M3 money supply and Germany's December GfK consumer confidence release. In the US, we get the latest weekly MBA mortgage applications, October advance goods trade balance, preliminary October wholesale inventories, October retail inventories, October new home sales and Richmond Fed's November manufacturing index.
  • Thursday: It's a busy day for data on Thursday with the key highlights being the release of the October PCE report and latest FOMC minutes in the US, and preliminary November CPI releases for Germany and Spain. Elsewhere, we'll get France's preliminary Q3 GDP report, November unemployment in Germany, UK's November money and credit aggregates data, and Euro Area's November confidence indicators. In the US, we get October personal income and real personal spending data along with the latest weekly initial jobless and continuing claims data, and October pending home sales. Away from that, ECB President Draghi and the Fed's Evans and Mester are due to speak. The Bank of England will also make its independent assessment of Brexit's impact on the financial system and broader UK economy to the Treasury Committee.
  • Friday: All eyes will be on the G-20 Summit on Friday which continues into the weekend. Away from this, the main data highlight is the preliminary November CPI report for the Euro Area. Prior to this, overnight we get China's November official PMIs and UK's November GfK consumer confidence data. We'll also get France's October PPI and preliminary November CPI along with Italy's preliminary November CPI and final Q3 GDP, and Euro Area's October unemployment report. In the US, the only data due is the November Chicago PMI. The Fed's Williams is also due to speak.
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth on Wednesday and core PCE on Thursday. In addition, minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including one by Chairman Powell on Wednesday.

Monday, November 26
  • 10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manufacturing index, November (consensus +24.5, last +29.4)
Tuesday, November 27
  • 07:45 AM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks; Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will speak at the Clearing House 2018 annual conference in New York.
  • 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, September (consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%); 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 0.3% in September, following a 0.1% increase in August. Our forecast of a relatively stronger increase mostly reflects modest appreciation in other home prices indices such as the CoreLogic house price index.
  • 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, November (GS 134.9, consensus 135.8, last 137.9): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index moved down to 134.9 from 137.9, partially reflecting weakness in the stock market.
  • 2:30 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter), Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter), and Chicago Fed President Fed Evans (FOMC non-voter) speak: Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will discuss the economy, regulation, and the future of payments on a panel at the Clearing House 2018 conference in New York.
Wednesday, November 28
  • 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advance goods trade balance, October (GS -$77.0bn, consensus -$77.0bn, last -$76.3bn); Wholesale inventories, October preliminary (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): We estimate that the trade deficit increased to $77.0bn in October, reflecting a jump in inbound container traffic ahead of the holiday shopping season.
  • 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q3 (GS +3.6%, consensus +3.6%, last +3.5%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +3.9%, consensus +3.7%, last +4.0%): We look for Q3 GDP to be revised up by one tenth to +3.6% in the second vintage of Q3 GDP, reflecting potential upward revisions to inventory and fixed investment, with a potential offset by downward revisions to personal consumption growth.
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, October (GS +4.4%, consensus +4.0%, last -5.5%): We estimate new home sales to rebound by 4.4% in October, following a 5.5% decline in the prior month. We expect the effects of Hurricane Michael to potentially weigh on new home sales. Single family starts increased slightly in October, while mortgage applications declined.
  • 10:00 AM Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, November (consensus +16, last +15)12:00 PM Fed Chairman Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the Fed’s framework for monitoring financial stability to the Economic Club of New York.
Thursday, November 29
  • 08:30 AM Personal income, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Personal spending, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, October (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.12%); Core PCE price index, October (GS +0.12%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.15%); PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +2.04%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.99%); Core PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +1.82%, consensus +1.9%, last +1.97%): Based on details in the PPI, CPI and import price reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose 0.12% month-over-month in October, or 1.82% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.22% in October, or 2.04% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% increase in October personal income and a 0.5% gain in personal spending.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 24 (GS 220k, consensus 220k, last 224k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 17 (last 1,668k): We estimate jobless claims edged down by 4k to 220k in the week ended November 24, following a 3k increase in the prior week.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); We estimate that pending home sales increased by 0.3% in October, following a 0.5% increase in September, due to weaker regional home sales data so far in October. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.
  • 2:00 PM Minutes from the November 7–8 FOMC meeting: At its November meeting, the FOMC left the funds rate target unchanged, as widely expected. The changes to the post-meeting statement were minimal, with the statement continuing to describe economic activity and job gains as “strong” but acknowledging the moderation in business fixed investment from its “rapid” pace earlier in the year. In the minutes, we will look for further discussion of financial markets and the stock market selloff, which were not directly mentioned in the statement.
Friday, November 30
  • 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, November (GS 58.4, consensus 58.5, last 58.4): We estimate that the Chicago PMI remained unchanged at 58.4 in November. The continued slowdown in global manufacturing may weigh on business sentiment in this report.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Goldman

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-26/key-events-week-fed-tips-its-hand-trump-and-xi-meet-g-20
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 11/26
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/11/links-11-26-18.html

TBP - 10 Monday AM Reads 11/26
https://ritholtz.com/2018/11/10-monday-am-reads-193/

SA - Market News Live Feed 11/26
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

CWS - Morning News: November 26, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/11/morning-news-november-26-2018.html

TCS - Nearly All The Major Asset Classes Lost Ground Last Week 11/26
http://www.capitalspectator.com/nearly-all-the-major-asset-classes-lost-ground-last-week/

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Futures Rebound After Black Friday Losses 11/26
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224418-wall-street-breakfast-futures-rebound-black-friday-losses

MtM - Greenback is Softer but the Market may be Getting Ahead of Itself 11/26
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/11/greenback-is-softer-but-market-may-be.html
 

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Oil (Energy) Is More Important Than You Think
The Morgan Report


Published on Nov 23, 2018
Market Analysis/Investing/Trading Methods At TheMorganReport.com For Only $50 Per Month. | http://www.themorganreport.com/join

Oil (Energy) Is More Important Than You Think | The Morgan Report's Weekly Perspective | http://www.themorganreport.com

Oil is the lifeblood of the industrialized nations and it has become the world's most important source of energy. Its products underpin modern society, mainly supplying energy to power industry, heat homes and provide fuel for vehicles and airplanes to carry goods and people all over the world.
 

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CORN talk November 26 2018
Ag Talk In The Raw


Published on Nov 26, 2018
i am here to talk about farming and all that goes with it. this episode is about what type of corn i will be planting.
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Financial Video 11 26 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 26, 2018
 

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Ira Epstein's End of the Day Agriculture Video 11 26 2018
Ira Epstein


Published on Nov 26, 2018
 

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Should You Prep for a No-Deal Brexit?
maneco64


Published on Nov 27, 2018
 

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Share Talk Bulletin Board Heroes, Tuesday 27th November 2018


Share Talk
Published on Nov 27, 2018
A charting look at some of the most followed stocks on the London market, Zak Mir covers.

GCM Resources (GCM)
Haydale (HAYD)
Mporium Grp (MPM)
OptiBiotix Health (OPTI)
Simec Atlantis (SAE)
Tern (TERN)

@ZaksTradersCafe deductive reasoning as to what should happen next in terms of the newsflow regarding the companies listed in this video.

Zakmir.com is a purely journalistic website – Zak Mir is a member of the National Union of Journalists. There is no intention here of providing financial advice. It is recommended you seek an independent professional opinion before deciding whether or not to take any action with regard to anything written here.
 

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US Futures, Global Markets Slide, Spooked By Trump Trade Comments


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/27/2018 - 07:19


US index futures and European shares slumped on Tuesday in a volatile, illiquid session punctuated by some headline confusion, while gains in Asian equities were limited after President Donald Trump said he still intends to go ahead with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and that it was highly unlikely he would accept China’s request to refrain from the increase, just days before meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping.



While ES losses were modest, it is worth noting that earlier in the session, S&P futures swung sharply, gaining as much as 0.5%, then falling back into negative territory, after algos misinterpreted comments from China foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang. As we reported earlier, during a media briefing Geng first said that Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to reach mutually beneficial agreements, sparking a vicious rally in futures. Just moments later, however, futures erased gains when Geng later said he was referring to a phone call on Nov. 1. The result was the following:



Following these fireworks, contracts on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq pointed to a drop at the opening, while Treasuries and the dollar held steady before the Fed’s top two officials were set to speak in the next 48 hours.

European equities gave up initial gains and posted small losses as basic resources and travel names underperformed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edging modestly lower (-0.1%), led by raw materials producers, while bonds rose across Europe and the euro currency edged lower. The pound weakened as traders mulled prospects for parliamentary approval of the Brexit deal, which Trump said could jeopardize Britain’s ability to strike a trade pact with the U.S.

Earlier in the session, Asian markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets.

In addition to today's 8:30am ET comments from Fed vice chair Clarida, trade remains firmly in investors’ minds before leaders of the two biggest economies meet in Buenos Aires at the end of the week. Trump's comments that it is likely the US will slap tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports and raise tariffs on existing tariffed products have weighed on optimism for U.S. stocks, which climbed on Monday amid hopes a strong start to the holiday season thanks to record online sales will keep growth on track.

Meanwhile, Fed speakers will be closely watched for any indications of a change in Fed thinking over continued rate hikes. Today Fed vice chair's New York speech at 8:30am will be the main attraction, while Chair Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be parsed for any hints on prospects for a pause in rate increases next year after traders reduced expectations for the pace of monetary policy tightening.

Elsewhere, emerging market currencies weakened and their shares traded little changed. Bitcoin steadied near $3,700 after plunging 14 percent Monday.

In overnight political news, US Special Counsel Mueller's office said former Trump campaign manager Manafort lied to FBI and Special Counsel in violation of plea agreement.

In commodities, Brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels.

Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand.

Expected data include Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Bank of Nova Scotia, Couche-Tard, and Salesforce are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot
  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% at 2,663.0
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 358.59
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 151.86
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 486.89
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,952.40
  • Topix up 0.7% to 1,644.16
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,331.96
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.04% to 2,574.68
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 35,524.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,728.28
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,099.42
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.349%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1323
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 13.6 bps to 2.9%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.536%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $60.83/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,223.10
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.15
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
  • President Donald Trump said he’ll likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, indicating he would also slap duties on all remaining imports from the Asian nation if negotiations with China’s leader Xi Jinping fail to produce a trade deal
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to Parliament for a decisive vote on Dec. 11, but after her plan was savaged from all sides, the signs are she’s on course to lose. President Trump Says Brexit deal could hurt plans for trade pact with U.S.
  • The Brexit deal negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May will lower economic output over the coming decade compared with staying in the European Union, researchers said. The deal would lower gross domestic product per capita by between 1.9 percent and 5.5 percent versus EU membership, according to a joint paper. Leaving without a deal could lower output per head as much as 8.7 percent.
  • Italy’s populist government failed to thrash out a new deficit target for the European Union in late night talks but cracks are starting to show in its battle with the bloc over spending
  • Donald Trump plans to keep Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross amid speculation of a broader shakeup in the president’s Cabinet, according to three people familiar with his thinking
  • European Union Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom sounds an upbeat note about EU talks with the U.S. on revamping global commercial rules while saying the verdict is out on whether President Donald Trump’s administration will stay engaged
  • The Turkish lira - - on track for its best November since 2002 -- is once again turning into a favorite for fast-money investors and hedge funds. Short-term carry positions have increased by an estimated $5.4 billion since the end of August, according to QNB Finansbank, an Istanbul-based lender
  • The Brevan Howard Asia Fund bucked a difficult October for macro funds, and is posting its best return in five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter
Asian equity markets were mostly positive as the region took impetus from the performance on Wall St, where all majors finished with firm gains on return from the Thanksgiving weekend and with retailers buoyed on the back of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. ASX 200 (+1.0%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were lifted from the open with Australia led higher by tech and financials, while a pullback in USD/JPY limited the upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed with China somewhat dampened by Trump’s hardball tactics ahead of the meeting with Chinese President Xi at this week’s G20, in which he suggested an intention to proceed with raising tariffs on China imports from 10% to 25% and also warned to place tariffs on the remaining USD 267bln of Chinese imports if they fail to reach a favourable outcome for the US. Furthermore, a slowdown of Chinese Industrial Profit growth and concerns in the Hong Kong property sector also contributed the cautiousness in Chinese markets. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful as prices took a breather from its extended but gradual uptrend and with today’s 40yr auction largely ignored despite increases in the b/c and accepted prices.

Top Asian News
  • Hong Kong’s Home Market Suffering Worst Declines Since 2016
  • Day Two Rebound in Asia Stocks Closes an Eye on Trade Rhetoric
  • Genting Malaysia Says Fox World Lawsuit Won’t Impact Operations
European cash indices gave up initial gains (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) following a relatively flat open after pre-market gains in index futures were short-lived. Equity futures staged a pre-cash open rally after it was reported that a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as stating that US President Xi and US President Trump had agreed to mutually beneficial agreements. However gains in futures markets were pared after it was later reported that this was in reference to a November 1st phone call and thus was viewed as stale by the market, particularly considering the hardball interview by Trump in the WSJ yesterday ahead of this week’s G20 summit. On an index basis, the SMI lags its peers (-0.5%) with Credit Suisse (-1.7%) lower following a broker downgrade at Credit Suisse. In terms of sector specifics, performance is relatively mixed with slight underperformance in material names in-fitting with recent price action in the complex. To the upside, utility names modestly outperform, albeit the moves thus far across the board are relatively small in terms of magnitude. Individual movers this morning include Dialog Semiconductor (-1.4%) amid Apple-inspired losses (post-Trump threat of potential tariffs on iPhones and laptops), Apple share are down 1.7% pre-market. Elsewhere, Rexel (+1.9%) are firmer following a broker upgrade at Credit Suisse, Thomas Cook (-24.5%) shares are notably underperforming following a disappointing trading update, dragging Tui (-4.2%) lower in sympathy.

Top European News
  • StanChart Is Said to Weigh a Simpler Structure to Control Costs
  • Bain Is Said to Explore Takeover Bid for Germany’s Osram Licht
  • UBS Takes Profit on Italy Two-Year Bonds as Budget Tensions Cool
  • Thomas Cook’s Dismal Year Gets Worse With Latest Profit Warning
  • Italy Compromise Has Convinced One Fund to Add European Banks
In FX, the DXY was overall bid vs G10 counterparts with the aid of the GBP weakness due to the latest Brexit developments. Moreover, Citi’s rebalancing model points to modest USD buying vs. peers going into month end, while Nordea also notes tomorrow’s HIA which is the cut-off date if companies wish to convert foreign currency into USD along with SOMA that happens to fall on Friday as well. The index is currently hovering above 97.000 within a narrow range around the big figure.
  • GBP – The standout underperformer vs. peers amid comments from UK Remain loyalist Fallon who said it may be possible to delay the date UK leaves the EU to renegotiate a better deal, inflicting a blow to UK PM May’s so-called “best deal”. As such Cable fell to a low print of 1.2734 ahead of the mid-November base at 1.2724, having already given up the 1.2800 handle following comments from US President Trump who noted that UK may not be able to trade with the US, in an interview last night. If the mid-November low (or Raab trough) is breached, the next levels to note are 1.2696 (October low) and 1.2662 (YTD low). However, looking further ahead Credit Suisse is more optimistic on the outlook for Sterling, with their Cable forecast at 1.4000 by end-2019
  • EUR – Holding up well vs. the pound above 0.8850 but not quite challenging the 100DMA 0.8884, though the single currency is lower vs. the buck, with the pair tripping some stops at 1.1310. Obviously, 1.1300 is nearest support and if breached more stops are reported at 1.1290.
  • NZD,AUD – Notable, albeit marginal G10 outperformers vs. the buck, with the Kiwi staging another recovery following the weak data (trade overnight), and now looking ahead to the RBNZ semi-annual FSR tonight. NZD/USD hovering just below 0.6800 and AUD/USD near the middle of a 0.7270-15 band.
In commodities, brent (+0.2%) and WTI (Unch) are nursing initial losses as focus starts turning to the G20 summit over the weekend where markets may get initial hints of what to expect at the Dec 6th OPEC meeting in Vienna. The Saudi Crown Prince, Russian President and US President are to meet, possibly on the side-lines to decide the future of the global oil market. Talk around the market notes that Prince Mohammed Bin Salman may not able to defy US President Trump’s aim for lower oil prices after the White House stood behind the prince in regard to the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Nonetheless, traders will be watching the summit closely, while in the nearer-term, today will see the release of the weekly API where forecasts see headline crude stockpiles printing a drawdown of 0.6mln barrels. Gold is trading relatively flat as the dollar holds steady following comments from Trump that overnight that he still intends to raise Chinese import tariffs to 25%; these comments come ahead of this week’s G20 summit. Additionally, US-China trade pessimism has caused copper prices to fall for the 3rd consecutive session due to demand concerns. Iron ore futures have dropped to their lowest level in over 4 months, dropping by 5% over concerns that steel prices are to remain pressured by slower demand.

Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market. That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 8.30am ET, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates.

US Event Calendar
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.2%, prior 0.09%; CS 20- City YoY NSA, est. 5.2%, prior 5.49%
  • 8:30am: Fed Vice Chairman Clarida Speaks in New York
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20- City NSA Index, prior 213.7; CS US HPI NSA Index, prior 205.8
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 135.9, prior 137.9; Present Situation, prior 172.8; Expectations, prior 114.6
  • 2:30pm: Fed’s Bostic, Evan and George Speak on Panel
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We took our three year old Maisie to the building site that is our new house over the weekend and this may have been a mistake as over the last two days she keeps on asking us why our new house is broken. She was particularly upset that a lot of windows and walls were missing and said she doesn’t want to live there as it would be too cold. Meanwhile Daddy’s bank account feels broken this morning as there was talk yesterday that one of our big suppliers might be about to call in the administrators. They have a healthy deposit of ours so it’s very annoying. It’s fair to say that costs are escalating from all angles and the EMR may need to still be running from an old people’s home in 50 years time to fund this.

From broken houses to slightly less broken markets. Given that the two Mondays prior to yesterday had seen moves of -1.66% and -1.97% for the S&P 500, yesterday reversed the trend as better news percolated through on some of the negative stories that have dominated of late. The S&P 500 closed last night +1.56% with the DOW and NASDAQ also up +1.46% and +2.06% respectively. The NYFANG index advanced +3.72%, despite Apple’s underperformance (initially down -1.18% before rebounding to close +1.35%) as the US Supreme Court signalled its willingness to hear a class action lawsuit over its app store pricing. Financials really led the way with the S&P Banks index rallying +2.30% for its best day since July. They had their European counterparts to thank for that, with the STOXX Banks index (+2.91%) seeing its best single day performance since July 2017. The broader STOXX 600 closed +1.23% and DAX +1.45%.

Italy was the main catalyst as sentiment improved on the potential for more positive negotiations with the European Commission. As we reported yesterday, the weekend saw less confrontational remarks from Salvini and Juncker. In addition, Salvini said yesterday that the government is “not getting stuck” over the decimals in the deficit target while fellow Deputy Premier Di Maio confirmed that “if, as part of the negotiation, we need to reduce the forecast deficit slightly, that’s not important to us.” Di Maio went on to say that “the issue is not the conflict with the EU on a deficit of 2.4%, what’s important is that not even a single person is kept out of the core measures.” Prior to this, we also had headlines on Bloomberg suggesting that an official for the League had said that the Government was looking at a new deficit target of 2.2% to 2.3%. Late in the evening, political leaders Conte, Salvini, and Di Maio released a joint statement after their meeting, confirming their less confrontational tone and again deemphasising the decimal place of the deficit number.

As we go to print headline are coming through from Italian finance minister Castelli that the deficit target is “almost certain” to be 2.2%. The question on everyone’s lips is what is the compromise number that the European Commission could realistically accept? A deficit in the 2.2% area is still unlikely to satisfy the EC, however a willingness to negotiate might be seen as the Italian government being aware of the implications of its actions. The Commission could even accept a somewhat vague framework as a rationale to defer a formal decision on Italy until into 2019, potentially alleviating some of the near-term event risk for Italy-linked assets.

Before all this news the FTSE MIB closed yesterday up +2.77% while Italian Banks (+4.83%) had their best day since June. Two- and ten-year BTPs rallied -11.2bps and -13.8bps respectively – albeit off their yield lows for the session. Speaking of Italy, the ECB’s Peter Praet said yesterday that there has been very limited spill-over from a tightening of financial conditions in Italy to the broader Euro Area, but that conditions in Italy are “unsustainable” and “so something will have to give.” Praet’s general tone outside of this was constructive. His comments suggested that QE will finish in December as widely expected, but also that the ECB will have to clarify was it meant by “reinvesting for an extended period of time.”

Praet also confirmed that guidance is “a very strong expectation” but also noted that “downside risks have increased noticeably.” This was notable as the Council has previously said that risks are “balanced.” Praet’s speech raised the anticipation levels for Draghi, who spoke in the afternoon. While his speech was virtually a copy and paste from his last on November 16th, he was later quoted as saying that “world growth momentum has slowed considerably” which is much stronger language compared to that used in the past. The December 13 ECB meeting will be key, and our economists still expect the Governing Council to announce the end of QE. Incoming data will dictate the evolution of policy, but we still expect growth and inflation to progress sufficiently to allow for an interest rate hike in September 2019.

Praet and Draghi are scheduled to speak again this week, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. We’ll also get several consequential communications from Federal Reserve officials, with speeches scheduled today for Vice Chair Clarida, tomorrow for Chair Powell, and Friday for NY Fed President Williams. The bottom line so far is that he doesn’t think there is sufficient evidence to ratify the market’s dovish interpretation of recent Fed communications, though that could change depending on what the Fed leadership says about the neutral rate, financial conditions, and global growth. So an important couple of speeches today and tomorrow from Clarida and Powell.

This morning in Asia markets are largely higher with the Nikkei (+0.88%), Shanghai Comp (+0.42%) and Kospi (+0.84%) all up while the Hang Seng (+0.01%) is trading flat after erasing earlier losses. Sentiment seems to have been impacted by US President Trump’s rhetoric, after an interview with the WSJ, that he will likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. He also suggested that the US would likely impose tariffs on the remainder of Chinese imports ($267bn) if the trade talks on the sidelines of the G20 fail. So the pressure builds ahead of the summit. Futures on S&P 500 (-0.18%) are pointing towards a softer start.

Back to yesterday, Bund yields edged up +2.1bps yesterday with the Italy news more important than any ECB slowdown worries. That move for BTPs and Bunds means the spread between the two yesterday was -15.9bps tighter and now at the tightest level in nearly three weeks.

Meanwhile Treasury yields also backed up +2.0bps and are now sitting at 3.06%. Oil had a part to play in that with Brent and Crude bouncing +3.13% and +2.54% respectively – despite the news that Saudi Arabia had again raised its oil output – perhaps with hopes that the oversupply condition will be addressed at the G20 this week or the OPEC meeting next week. Tensions between Russia and the Ukraine over the weekend seemed to have less of an impact.

Not hurting the decent day for equities yesterday was news of a merger in the Greek Banking sector, however a sub-index of Greek banks did give up an early morning surge of as much as +11.57% to finish flat. A pretty substantial move and retracement! In the US, the auto sector advanced +3.98% for its sixth best day of the year, after General Motors announced a broad new restructuring plan. It plans to cut over 14,000 jobs and close five North American manufacturing plants next year, barring an agreement with its unions. GM’s share price rose +4.79% to a four-month high.

Elsewhere on Brexit, Donald Trump has suggested PM May's Brexit agreement could threaten a US-UK trade deal. He told reporters the withdrawal agreement "sounds like a great deal for the EU" and meant the UK might not be able to trade with the US. The PM’s office insisted the deal is "very clear" the UK would be able to sign trade deals with countries around the world.

To the day ahead now, where this morning in Europe we’ll get November confidence indicators in France and Italy followed by the CBI’s retailing reported sales data in the UK for November. In the US this afternoon we’ll get various house price data points including the September FHFA house price index reading, Q3 house price purchase index reading and September S&P CoreLogic house price data. On top of that we’ll get the November consumer confidence survey which is expected to slip nearly 2pts to 135.8 in light of the recent wobbles in the equity market.

That is, however, in the context of the 18-year high that the index reached last month. Away from the data, there will be plenty of focus on Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s speech in New York today at 1.30pm GMT, especially around the topics of how he characterizes recent volatility in markets and the prospects for domestic and global growth. Fellow Fed officials Bostic, Evans and George will also speak this evening at 7.30pm GMT while the ECB’s Nouy, Costa and Mersch also speak at various stages. It’s worth also noting that starting today and continuing until Thursday, the three top candidates to take over from Merkel as head of the CDU will hold panel debates.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...al-markets-slide-spooked-trump-trade-comments
 

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Naked Capitalism Links 11/27
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/11/links-11-27-18.html

SA - Market News Live Feed 11/27
https://seekingalpha.com/market-news

TBP - 10 Tuesday AM Reads 11/27
https://ritholtz.com/2018/11/10-tuesday-am-reads-219/

CWS - Morning News: November 27, 2018
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2018/11/morning-news-november-27-2018.html

FC - 3 scenarios for the Trump-Xi Summit on trade 11/27
https://www.forexcrunch.com/3-scena...utm_campaign=Feed:+ForexCrunch+(Forex+Crunch)

MtM - Market Shrugs Off Latest US Tariff Provocation 11/27
http://www.marctomarket.com/#!/2018/11/market-shrugs-off-latest-us-tariff.html

TCS - Another Downshift Expected For US GDP Growth In Q4 11/27
http://www.capitalspectator.com/another-downshift-expected-for-us-gdp-growth-in-q4/

SA - Wall Street Breakfast: Stakes Raised In U.S.-China Trade War 11/27
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4224684-wall-street-breakfast-stakes-raised-u-s-china-trade-war
 

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Asian Metals Market Update: Nov 27 2018
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Most investors are cautious. Nothing is rising, be it stocks, commodities or bonds. Sitting on cash is the favorite pastime of traders and investors. There will be short term certain direction after the G20 meeting and US November nonfarm payrolls on 7th December. It is just keeping a hawk eye and making the right investment. Do invest with the herd. Herd trading can result in more losses than profit in the current global investment scenario.
 

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US National Debt, Part 2: Accumulation
CaspianReport


Published on Nov 12, 2018
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BAKU - America's national debt is the largest binding obligation of the federal government. At an outstanding sum of 21,4 trillion USD, it’s also the largest sovereign debt in the world and greater than what the country produces in a whole year. No single event facilitated this amount, and even though debt has been a part of American history since its foundation, nearly the entire net sum was only accumulated in the last three decades.

Soundtrack:
Crypto by Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0
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US National Debt, Part 3: Consequences
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Published on Nov 25, 2018
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BAKU - The US budget deficit for the fiscal year 2018 hit 779 billion USD, which is 17 percent more than the year before. Much of the increase is pegged to Trump’s recent legislations. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office expects the federal deficit to eclipse 1 trillion USD in 2020, which would generate about 9,5 trillion USD in debt over the coming decade. Yet, as substantial as this sounds, the United States is neither at risk of default nor can it continue to spend with impunity.

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Do I Need an Offshore Bank Account if I Have Few Assets?
Nomad Capitalist


Published on Nov 27, 2018
http://www.nomadcapitalist.com/offsho...

A reader wrote in to ask: "Do I need an offshore bank account if I don't have a lot of money?"

The answer, as it often is, depends on the circumstance. For many people who want to become Nomad Capitalists, opening an offshore bank account is a first legal step to "dip your toe in" and get started with this lifestyle.

That's because you don't need to relocate or even do much of anything to open an offshore bank account.

In addition to the mental benefits of banking offshore, you may be "future proofing" your life by starting now, even if you don't have many assets.
 

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Why GM CEO Mary Barra killed Chevrolet cars, approved likely plant closures

USA Today
Nathan Bomey
5 hrs ago

Mary Barra has methodically reshaped General Motors.

As Barra nears her five-year anniversary as GM CEO, the full scope of her imprint on the nation's largest automaker is becoming clearer.

She's made GM sharper, lighter and more focused on the future.

But understanding Barra's strategy for the future requires a grasp of her past.

This is a leader who lived through the dark days of GM. Her bosses made mistake after mistake after mistake in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s as GM toppled toward Chapter 11 bankruptcy and a federal bailout in 2009.

She saw what happens when a major, bloated corporation fails to take decisive action, admit its mistakes and pivot toward the future.

No longer. Barra has distanced GM from its old ways in a bid to propel the company into the future of self-driving cars, electric vehicles and ride-sharing networks.

It hasn't all worked or been popular. Despite delivering strong profits, sales and innovation, GM's stock remains about 5 percent less than the day Barra took over as CEO in January 2014, despite rising about 6 percent on Monday to about $38.

More: GM to kill Chevrolet Volt, Cruze, Impala as Americans ditch passenger cars

More: GM poised to close plants in Michigan, Ohio, Maryland, will cut 15% of salaried workers

And criticism was intense after Monday's announcement that the automaker would likely shutter several plants — including factories in southeast Michigan, northeast Ohio and the Baltimore area — and cut 15 percent of its salaried workforce.

The United Auto Workers union called the closures "callous" and vowed to fight them. And President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure and said he told Barra personally to reinvest in Ohio, in particular.

"This country has done a lot for General Motors," Trump said as he departed the White House for a series of campaign events in Mississippi. "They better get back to Ohio and soon. So we have a lot of pressure on them."

Despite the political pressure, financial analysts said GM is heading in the right direction to avoid future trouble and stay nimble. The company's bold moves have enabled it to outrun archrival Ford Motor Co., whose stock has fallen nearly 44 percent during the same period Barra has been in charge at GM.

Here are 5 key ways Barra has reshaped GM:

Ditched money-losing operations
For years, GM clung to its money-losing European business, which failed to turn a full-year profit in the 21st Century. Her predecessors kept it alive despite perpetual difficulties.

Barra sold it in 2017 to the parent company of French automaker Peugeot, preserving the bottom line and allowing GM to focus on its stronger regions.

She also authorized GM's essential exit from other areas, including India and Russia.

Killed cars that weren't selling
GM announced Monday that it would kill several passenger cars that simply weren't performing well. Among them: the Chevrolet Volt and Cruze — two vehicles that, before her tenure, were trumpeted as signs of GM's resurgence.

Barra did not allow GM's past bets on those nameplates to sway her plans. She authorized their demise.

Instead, GM is developing new SUVs, like the Chevy Blazer, and fully battery-powered vehicles.

Invested in self-driving vehicles
GM bought San Francisco-based self-driving car startup Cruise Automation for $1 billion in 2016, helping the company catapult past key competitors in the race to deliver autonomous vehicles.

It may prove to be one of Barra's finest moments.

GM's self-driving car unit was valued at $14.6 billion earlier this year after attracting a $2.25 billion investment from Japanese investment fund SoftBank.

Refused to heavily discount
Under many of her predecessors, it was common for GM to heavily discount vehicles to keep sales humming.

No more. From the beginning, Barra has placed GM's emphasis squarely on maintaining and boosting profitability. That meant the company could no longer rely on steep incentives.

"They just don’t do that anymore," said Autotrader analyst Michelle Krebs. "They have shown a lot more discipline since the Great Recession."

It has cost the company sales volume, as its market share has contracted. But GM is solidly profitable and better poised to weather an inevitable downturn.

Cut thousands of jobs despite profits
With GM making good money and the North American auto industry zipping along at a healthy pace, it might seem like a strange time for GM to close several plants and cut thousands of jobs.

But that's exactly what Barra announced Monday. She's transforming GM into a more efficient company that can survive the industry's long-expected shift toward autonomous vehicles.

In the short term, however, she'll face considerable resistance. U.S. politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Trump, as well as Canadian political leaders and union officials criticized GM's plan.

"In Michigan and Ohio this is going to hurt," said Mike Ramsey, a transportation analyst at Gartner.

If Barra's track record is any guide, however, she won't back down now.

Contributing: John Fritze

Follow USA TODAY reporter Nathan Bomey on Twitter @NathanBomey.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why GM CEO Mary Barra killed Chevrolet cars, approved likely plant closures
 

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Heart-wrenching photos show General Motors workers wiping away tears after company laid off more than 14,000 people without warning, just before the holidays

  • Employees were shocked when GM announced 14,000 job layoffs on Monday
  • Auto giant said it will cut 15 per cent of its workforce to save $6billion by 2020
  • Photos show workers sobbing as move is announced before the holiday season
  • GM will shutter seven plants globally as it focuses on increasing electric models
  • Workers at Ontario plant staged a wildcat strike to protest the closure Tuesday
  • Move drew criticism from US & Canadian labor union representing GM workers

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tears-away-thousands-laid-ahead-holidays.html
 

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Farm Bankruptcies Soar In The Midwest


by Tyler Durden
Tue, 11/27/2018 - 18:10


Eighty-four farms in the US Midwest region covered by the Minneapolis Fed’s Ninth District states (Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan) filed for chapter 12 bankruptcy in the 12 months that ended in June - more than twice the level observed in June 2014, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve, surpassing the prior peak hit just after the GFC.



"Current numbers are not unprecedented, even in the recent past, having reached 70 bankruptcies in 2010. However, current price levels and the trajectory of the current trends suggest that this trend has not yet seen a peak," Ron Wirtz, an analyst at the Minneapolis Fed, wrote.

Bankruptcy numbers inversely correlate with the rise and fall of soft commodity prices. After an abrupt spike in chapter 12 filings during the GFC - which peaked in 2010 - soft commodity prices started to rise across the board and bankruptcies declined. Farm bankruptcies bottomed out in 2014, but that was at the point when prices peaked then began to drop.



As shown in the chart above, some of the problems predate President Trump's trade war with China.

One culprit is that demand for corn and soybeans has not kept pace with increasing supply from industrialized farms over the current economic expansion.

Some chapter 12 filings reflect low price levels for corn, soybeans, milk and even beef, but the situation had dramatically worsened since the trade war started earlier this year, and accelerated when China began slapping retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans.

Meanwhile, as the Fed notes, not all Ninth District states are feeling the same effects.

Wisconsin, for example, is seeing about 60% of all bankruptcies. It appears that bankruptcy filings have been unusually high among dairy farms.

Mark Miedtke, the president of Citizens State Bank in Hayfield, Minn., said bankruptcy had not reared its head for borrowers in his region of southeast Minnesota, but farmers are certainly feeling the pinch.

"Dairy farmers are having the most problems right now," Miedtke said quoted by AP. “Grain farmers have had low prices for the past three years but high yields have helped them through. We’re just waiting for a turnaround. We’re waiting for the tariff problem to go away.”

"The underlying problem, which existed before the trade war, was overproduction. Farmers are almost too efficient for their own financial good," Miedtke added.

The bankruptcy wave of farms is also spilling into the ag loans market as the Ninth District’s 531 banks have reported an alarming rise in nonperforming ag loans.

"Asset quality of ag loans at these banks in the bottom quarter of the performance distribution worsened significantly after the recession. They improved markedly by 2012 and saw a couple of years of very healthy rates (Chart 3). But by 2014, asset quality in this cohort of banks was worsening again. By the second quarter of this year, asset quality would fall below levels seen in the aftermath of the recession—a trend not seen in any other standard loan category, like residential and commercial real estate, or construction and industrial, or even consumer loans," said Minneapolis Fed.​


The farm bust is not isolated to Ninth District states but also is showing up in other parts of the Midwest.

A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and portions of Missouri and New Mexico, shows how farms in its district reported much lower income than a year ago.

Kansas City Fed said farm incomes were expected to weaken into early 2019. The worst ag banking conditions were in states with the heaviest concentrations of corn and soybeans.


Trade War Impact: China soybean imports from the USA by month have collapsed for the second half of 2018

The report also notes how farmers have started to deleverage, taking a page out of the GE playbook, with firesales of land or equipment to make loan payments.

In short, it appears that America's farm bust has arrived; while it has been festering for years starting under the Obama administration, with President Trump's trade war and China shutting out US farmers to its market the perfect storm has arrived.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-26/fed-warns-farm-bust-about-get-worse