Hamilton's 10% correction from $1,348 puts us in the low $1,200 range. The 200 DMA is obviously well within that range. Hamilton's argument tends to support the low now with a big rally following idea. Gold could turn a head of Armstrong's projected date simply because the stock market and other markets don't always turn in sync. It's logical that gold should turn before a stock market high because the diversification selling, that marks the high in the stock market, coming from the more prudent fund managers and subsequent hedging in GLD will generate buying pressure in physical gold. I respect both Hamilton's and Armstrong's opinion, and they both could turn out to be on the money here. If so, it argues against the ABC correction idea and for the low soon major rally idea. Either way to expect the commercials to shoot for the 200 DMA is prudent, should they fall short of that target before a major rally it is a very bullish omen.
Whichever way you turn it, mid to long term, this is a high probability buying window. Drawdowns from this point should be minimal whichever way it plays.
10% is in the 121x area which is the maximum extent of a typical correction. I guess that is possible but to me would indicate weakness and would not argue a strong rally is in the offing. I really think we need that 200 DMA to hold well. However markets don't respect opinions!
Ok but Armstrong is bullish stocks, the vertical move his talking about his up, isn't it? If it happens we're going to go from over valuations to insane valuations, this is going to be more like a Zimbabwe style stock market melt up than it is any normal Bull market rally. I'm not exactly sure what's going to drive it, possibly straight out inflationary forces, possibly demographics with baby boomers moving money out of say real estate into stocks simply because they're going up. I don't know it seems a stretch to me. Personally I think I'd be betting on the inversion, but what the heck is an inversion anyway? Sorry the cycle is wrong? I'd like to understand what drives inversions and why they're not predictable as far in advance as the cycle itself is. I don't get it, at this point to me it looks more like a get out of jail free card for a cycles guy!
Gold very much looking like a trend change is in play on the daily chart... so far. If so the horizontal support line held well, both above trend and above the 200DMA. This is good, better than anticipated. Now will it hold into today's close and if so is it a dead cat? I have ~ 1308/17/34 as resistance on the daily, then the closing high @ ~1349. Over 17 is hopeful, over 34 is looking good, over 48 and I think it might be a 14 handle year end.
.... also, at this point the weekly Parabolic SAR up trend, starting early August, is still up and has not been breached.