I want to see how the stock market and the dollar play out first. I'm also watching base metals, global growth and silver very closely. My thinking at this stage is as long as there's a resumption of global growth and stock market increases then 1250-1270 area is it. If there's a serious correction but not a crash, then 1220. I'm not placing any bets on those numbers yet though, again I want to see more information.
A quick look at the previous 2 stock market tops in 2000 and 2007 shows that the markets like to put in double tops, or make 2 attempts before breaking down. Perhaps this is what we should expect when the top comes in the current stock market?
Technical analysis typically gets re-written after the fact, jelly.
You can find plenty of false double tops along the way to the final double top. Not sure if we're actually in a parabolic move, but if we are, for the stock market those typically last for about a year or so.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say by that. Are you saying we are at the top right now? What are you really trying to say? Because those mantras were ingrained into us since we were 12 years old when we took trading 101.
There are dozens of these sound bites. Here's another one for you: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." But just by saying that obvious mantra doesn't provide any actionable intelligence.
Here's another: "The trend is your friend."
But I'll now give you something you can use to go along with the mantra: I believe the up trend is still intact and last week was not the top, JMHO, DYODD.
The only asset which seems to hold up completely to past performance is gold and silver. Looking at a 5000 year chart, it's very clear that over the very long run those forms of money retain purchasing power where paper money never has.
I think Tesla is a great company, but beware the stock. JMHO, DYODD.
Was listening to Sinclair and Bill Holter talking about GE... He said the new guy running the place got exposed to derivatives in the worst way... chances are pretty good that GE might never come back....
The VIX doubled during regular market hours Monday, causing obvious havoc for a product seeking to track its inverse return. Though, the XIV dropped just 14 percent during regular trading.
But then after hours trading began and the security, popular with hedge funds betting on an ever-placid market, was off by 80 percent in extended trading.
The move after hours sparked fear among traders that violent declines in exchange-traded notes like this one would cause market volatility measures to spike further and weigh on the broader market. The drop also raised fears of big losses from hedge funds and other investors unfortunate enough to be holding this security and unable to unwind it after hours.
Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report, warned that such a huge spike in volatility could have a cascading effect.
"Positioning in all sorts of VIX ETFs has increased 5-fold in recent years," McDonald said in an email. "Even a spike in volatility similar to August 2015, would force VIX ETFs to buy an incredulous $37 billion exposure in short-term VIX futures. Such a spike can even get more exacerbated in case liquidity dries up as the market realizes certain structures need to rush in and cover their shorts at whatever the cost."
McDonald told CNBC that the August 2015 VIX move was roughly 45 percent, while today's move was double that.
The XIV was last seen at 20.88 in postmarket trading, down 80 percent from its close at 99.
VelocityShares declined to comment on Monday's move. Credit Suisse did not immediately offer comment.
"The ETNs, and in particular the 2x Long ETNs, are intended to be trading tools for sophisticated investors to manage daily trading risks...The ETNs are riskier than securities that have intermediate or long-term investment objectives, and may not be suitable for investors who plan to hold them for longer than one day."
It is hard to tell who is exactly holding this short-term oriented security at this time. Filings from back in September show Credit Suisse, Deutsche Asset Management, Citadel Advisors, Flow Traders, and Two Sigma as the top holders.
My Gold stock portfolios are green @ lunch after the expected sell off in the AM... that is in the face of a -3% ASX @ 2:00 PM---> ATM I have 4 of the top 5 gainers on the market for the day. Gold in favour today... for sure!
Get ready BOYYEEEZ !
Predictability has been tossed out the window and is fallin', well(deep one) maybe.
I can not wait to see metals truly be effected, rather than norm, prepped and positioned preemptively.
Do not forget the 3% "safety" margin banks were operating; it was bulldozed, hallelujah !
Got Dollahs ?
Just installing Mint Linux and setting Windoze 10 up in a VirtualBox for those apps I just have to have, looking for a Linux equivalent for most of what I need but some things will be undoable.... anywhooo... the new Windows install is fucking creepy... its like Hal, I don't want an OS buddying up to me... I just don't trust any of the feckers that much!
Dow ends wild day down 1,175 points, largest point drop in history
In a wild day on Wall Street, the Dow suddenly spiraled down almost 1,600 points at one moment — in what some analysts said was a computer- and machine-generated drop similar to the Dow's "Flash Crash" back in 2010.
Author: Adam Shell, USA TODAY
Published: 10:00 PM EST February 5, 2018
The Dow Jones industrial average suffered its biggest one-day point drop in history, plunging 1,175 points on Monday and giving back all its 2018 gains as a flash-crash-style drop intensified a free fall in stocks that began last week.
Fears of spiking inflation and borrowing costs caused investors to rethink their bullish views on stocks, which until just last week had fueled huge gains in the blue-chip Dow.
"Corrections are a normal part of the investing process and not a reason to sell quality investments," said Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management in Des Peres, Missouri.
"My best advice for investors with long-term goals like saving for retirement is to turn off the TV and go walk the dog."