• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,179
Likes
1,636
Just installing Mint Linux and setting Windoze 10 up in a VirtualBox for those apps I just have to have, looking for a Linux equivalent for most of what I need but some things will be undoable.... anywhooo... the new Windows install is fucking creepy... its like Hal, I don't want an OS buddying up to me... I just don't trust any of the feckers that much!

LOL
Don't let the Bass Turds bring you down... and do stay and play in the lunatic fringe for a bit, things are starting to get there...
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
31,076
Likes
38,679
Location
Planet Earth
Next stop 23200...?


Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 7.32.59 AM.png
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
31,076
Likes
38,679
Location
Planet Earth
Derivatives...?


First Victim Announced: A $300M VIX Fund Goes Poof


Bloomberg reports Volatility Jump Has Traders Asking About VIX Note Poison Pill.

"The Cboe Volatility Index’s biggest rally ever is raising thorny questions about the future of exchange-traded products tied to the gauge.

An ETP meant to mirror moves in the front of the VIX’s futures curve plunged more than 75 percent in after-hours trading following an 80 percent spike in contracts that comprise its underlying index during the trading day, potentially putting in play triggers that would enable the fund’s owners to liquidate it to avoid losses.

The surge in volatility has already claimed one victim: Nomura Europe Finance announced the early redemption of its Next Notes S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Inverse Daily Excess Return Index ETN, which had 32.4 billion yen (approximately $300 million) in assets.

Trading was halted in VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN, which trades under XIV, according to a market statement Tuesday.

“If they lose more than 80 percent of their value, the sponsor has the right to liquidate and they should, or they take on the risk. Thus if Bloomberg’s indicative value is correct, they are due to be liquidated,” Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, said.

The fund, the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN, has been wildly popular in the past year as volatility on American equity markets sank to historic lows, delivering an eye-popping return of more than 187 percent last year. It pulled in nearly $1 billion in just the first five weeks of this year, while the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (ticker XIV) has added almost $750 million over the same time frame.
The S&P futures put in a wild ride this evening with multiple swings in both directions. The S&P is up 100 points from the low, in the green by 10 points as I type at 5:00 AM Central. The VIX is near 44.

Expect more announcements soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 

FunnyMoney

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
3,217
Likes
1,779
Updated dollar, one year lag on gold chart
Hey louky, couple of questions... First the dollar...

The dollar , using the USD index, has been moving down ever since you said it would. Lately we've seen a little tiny bit of strength in the USD with this downdraft in stocks. I like following your USD predictions and the charts, but have you noticed the dollar vs. the RMB?

Since China is the last remaining creditor nation on the planet, has the largest economy, by far the most manufacturing, the largest middle class (by numbers, not by %), mines more gold and probably holds more gold than any other CB - shouldn't we be taking a look at the dollar vs. RMB more often than using the USD index? Or at least both in tandem?

It seems to me China's currency was getting stronger also when the USD was sliding and of late it seems it's remaining strong despite the USD's minor strength of late. Shouldn't that tell us something?

Stocks Bear market activated, why wait for 20% to call it for what it is?
Can you tell us what you mean by this? Are you saying that we hit-20% from the high soon?

I'm not sure if that level of pull back is coming. I pulled off my short term shorts this morning. What about the comments you posted to me a few days back about "the risk is being out of the market?" Are you reversing course and that comment no longer applies?
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
4,532
Likes
2,228
Location
Bluegrass
Hey louky, couple of questions... First the dollar...

The dollar , using the USD index, has been moving down ever since you said it would. Lately we've seen a little tiny bit of strength in the USD with this downdraft in stocks. I like following your USD predictions and the charts, but have you noticed the dollar vs. the RMB?

Since China is the last remaining creditor nation on the planet, has the largest economy, by far the most manufacturing, the largest middle class (by numbers, not by %), mines more gold and probably holds more gold than any other CB - shouldn't we be taking a look at the dollar vs. RMB more often than using the USD index? Or at least both in tandem?

It seems to me China's currency was getting stronger also when the USD was sliding and of late it seems it's remaining strong despite the USD's minor strength of late. Shouldn't that tell us something?



Can you tell us what you mean by this? Are you saying that we hit-20% from the high soon?

I'm not sure if that level of pull back is coming. I pulled off my short term shorts this morning. What about the comments you posted to me a few days back about "the risk is being out of the market?" Are you reversing course and that comment no longer applies?
Those were gary's comments, i even posted the video.

Like i posted, "have to give him credit for getting vertical phase 100% correct since last summer"
 
Last edited:

FunnyMoney

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
3,217
Likes
1,779
Those were gary's comments, i even posted the video.

Like i posted, "have to give him credit for getting vertical phase 100% correct since last summer"
Sure, I understand. But since you repeated his video, it made me think you were in agreement. Do you believe he is right and this is the big dip that should be bought?

I'm asking your opinion, and doing that because I think you're actually better at this than he is.
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
4,532
Likes
2,228
Location
Bluegrass
"Most" start weak thursdays, drop fri, crash monday. "Turnaround tuesday"


Average corretion is 2-3%
Green market...Turn around Tuesday ;)

Based on bear market weekly pattern, i say they trapped some more folks. Should get flat to slightly green open and then more bleeding. My guess
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,179
Likes
1,636
Green market...Turn around Tuesday ;)

Based on bear market weekly pattern, i say they trapped some more folks. Should get flat to slightly green open and then more bleeding. My guess
Lots of shake outs, every which way but loose. Tough market to play at the moment methinks.
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
4,532
Likes
2,228
Location
Bluegrass
Sure, I understand. But since you repeated his video, it made me think you were in agreement. Do you believe he is right and this is the big dip that should be bought?

I'm asking your opinion, and doing that because I think you're actually better at this than he is.
I'm not a buyer here. I think they are holding the tape, while selling to "you" :)
 

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
11,545
Likes
8,918
Location
Springfield
Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.
T\A signals potential and probability, it always needs confirming price action. It's detractors get hung up on prediction which is not possible, but what is possible is the shortening of the odds such that you win more than enough to make it work.

The other thing that most people don't get is the discounting mechanism of the market. Meaning the more popular any market analysis becomes, be it FA or TA or even HFT the less it works as the "knowledge" gets discounted by price. If we all believe at top is coming it will fail to materialize as we collectively negate it by selling early drawing in more buyers. Fading general net chatter seems to be one of the more reliable methods, seems to be a little too much crash talk ATM FWIW!

In the end risk control and money management is king, analysis is down to your time frame and temperament... nothing is absolutely correct or completely wrong. Dart board selection with good risk control has beaten gurus of all stripes.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,179
Likes
1,636
T\A signals potential and probability, it always needs confirming price action. It's detractors get hung up on prediction which is not possible, but what is possible is the shortening of the odds such that you win more than enough to make it work.

The other thing that most people don't get is the discounting mechanism of the market. Meaning the more popular any market analysis becomes, be it FA or TA or even HFT the less it works as the "knowledge" gets discounted by price. If we all believe at top is coming it will fail to materialize as we collectively negate it by selling early drawing in more buyers. Fading general net chatter seems to be one of the more reliable methods, seems to be a little too much crash talk ATM FWIW!

In the end risk control and money management is king, analysis is down to your time frame and temperament... nothing is absolutely correct or completely wrong. Dart board selection with good risk control has beaten gurus of all stripes.
That is some profound chit, Z.

It's almost like you have to find a tree that stands outside the thicket. If it bears fruit and multiplies you have to move on to another wilderness to sow, before becoming strangled anew. I guess it is all about the search for fresh, fertile ground.
 

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
11,545
Likes
8,918
Location
Springfield
That is some profound chit, Z.

It's almost like you have to find a tree that stands outside the thicket. If it bears fruit and multiplies you have to move on to another wilderness to sow, before becoming strangled anew. I guess it is all about the search for fresh, fertile ground.
Chinese whispers, the act of passing the message corrupts it?! Classic T/A became complete mess with the advent of the internet, cheap charting software and discount brokers. In the late 90's TA's popularity ensured every classic signal was messed up in some fashion, you had to trade where only the pros traded or you had to develop new approaches (I did) either that or you had to dig up some arcane long abandoned methods... like Gann. Anyway.. yes, it is a mobile feast and sometimes things stop working as market conditions and participants change in some form or fashion.

Its good to know what you are doing and be lonely with it... that is where the money is.
 
Last edited:

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
31,076
Likes
38,679
Location
Planet Earth
louky, how does that A,B,C,D a,b,c,d pattern program fit with the above chart?
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
504
Likes
305
Many miners are currently on support levels. If we get a rally, I would expect it starting soon
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
504
Likes
305
Quick comparison of gold and GDX. Gold has barely moved, and hasn't even reached firm support at 1300. The miners are taking it on the chin, as if gold has already broken 1300.
 

Attachments

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
504
Likes
305
AUY has almost reached its 50 DMA. Potential bounce?
FCX has hit its 50DMA and is oversold. But will it rally?
 

Attachments

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
4,532
Likes
2,228
Location
Bluegrass
Usually when miners stop breaking down ahead of gold, it's a temporary bottom. So i agree, bounce likely.

Additionally, we're at a point where gold and $ can move up together since 1305/1296 are incoming and cows should defend the area .
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
4,532
Likes
2,228
Location
Bluegrass
Trump upset about manipulation, he's really gonna be butt hurt soon when it's below the level he was elected at