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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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Gold in the box. Magnet to 1188 at open, now back testing 1179.

1179-1188-1197
Always works the same, just need good memory. Make notes in a binder if youre going to be serious about trading something

1188 magnet last night

Now retest 1179

you see it? Same story 2016 quote. Read it, what's happening now?

How i knew to post the fake news meme when 1179 broke last night. It's not even a prediction, more like science
 
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Zed

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Damn, Z, RSI is at 14 right now. How low can it go?
Basically most all metrics are pinned low as they typically go! This thing needs to rally soon even if it's a dead cat bounce. I'm looking at 3 years of weekly GLD at the mo. Volume seems to dry up into the GLD lows, not so much in GDX... it tends towards the the typical stock capitulation with higher liquidity. As of today GDX is looking more like its done, volume spiking a little and maybe more if Friday is a blood bath. Getting nailed down here on Fridays action, FWIW. GDX has pushed outside its weekly Bolly Bands, not so common. Next support @ 16 then 14... so I guess the answer is maybe a little lower but its looking like a buy even if its a short trade.
 

Zed

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Martin Armstrong said:
The real issue is not whether gold is money, silver, copper, bronze, seashells, sheepskins or cattle. The real question is will money be COMMODITY based (Tangible) with its roots in barter or will it be simply a representative of economic output that can be electronic? That is the real question. Are we headed into a future as in Star Trek where physical money is obsolete?
Source: Gold & the Changing Fundamentals <--- That is a link!

Hmmmmmmmm....
 
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Zed

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Keep in mind that a huge amount of wealth is currently controlled by people who do remember golds glory days.
 

Cigarlover

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jelly

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I'll be keeping an eye on the miners during the coming rally. If the miners go nowhere, then this is a bear move. If the miners go off like a rocket, then its the start of a bull move higher.
 

Zed

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Mr T. Butler agitating again.

He must be sick of his own voice by now.
 

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jelly

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Look at today's candlestick in gold. Lookin' like a potential reversal was formed today. I took a small position in some short term GLD calls to play a rally. mental stop if we break below 1180. The risk:reward ratio is very favorable right now.
A confirmation in the miners would be helpful tomorrow.
golds.png
 
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Zed

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Looking at the economic confidence model in this 2nd link, it looks like Nov of this year we begin a major downturn that lasts until Jan 2020.
Yes. + it fits this ~10 year cycle we seem to have been on since WWII. It's due this year or next...

Despite that he often says by 2022... hedging maybe?

The algos will certainly be working over time to manage market outcomes IMO. Maybe it is forestalled this time, who can be certain?
 

Zed

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Look at today's candlestick in gold. Lookin' like a potential reversal was formed today. I took a small position in some short term GLD calls to play a rally. mental stop if we break below 1180. The risk:reward ratio is very favorable right now. View attachment 108659
Yes... Friday needs to confirm it but there is certainly potential there.
 

Zed

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I'll be keeping an eye on the miners during the coming rally. If the miners go nowhere, then this is a bear move. If the miners go off like a rocket, then its the start of a bull move higher.
This is partly why I want to see capitulation volume in the gold stocks. We need to ring the lightweights out and let the strong hands move right in. JMO
 

Goldhedge

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Zed

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savvydon

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Source: Gold & the Changing Fundamentals <--- That is a link!

Hmmmmmmmm....
Nice to hear at least a contrarian argument to the old saw that has been bashed into my brains of the past number of years... Gold is Money! Armstrong seems to be good for that sort of thing. Methinks that is why many love to hate him.
 

Zed

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Methinks that is why many love to hate him.
Yeah... well we have to consider these ideas.

I have this nutty thought that floats around in my mind when it comes to Martin. He was far more pro gold when he was inside, the change around the time he was released seemed notable to me. Maybe he was released with conditions and has a threat hanging over him such that he always pulls his punches when it comes to gold. I dunno... but he seemed far more in alignment with old JS back in the days of his typed & scanned releases. Maybe his internet following made him useful.

Thoughts for food... LOL.
 
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Cigarlover

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I did link it in the post?! Maybe it is not obvious...?
My bad.. either I didn't notice or my CPU didn't recognize it right away. It happens with charts too. Sometimes it doesn't load until I come back into the thread later.
Anyway, Carry on. :)
 

Zed

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My bad.. either I didn't notice or my CPU didn't recognize it right away. It happens with charts too. Sometimes it doesn't load until I come back into the thread later.
Anyway, Carry on. :)
I think it is the way GIM styles links, I went back and underlined it but I think they may need to stand out a little more.
 

Cigarlover

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Nice to hear at least a contrarian argument to the old saw that has been bashed into my brains of the past number of years... Gold is Money! Armstrong seems to be good for that sort of thing. Methinks that is why many love to hate him.
How many gold mining companies are there and how many gold mines are open and producing gold right now?
All of them doing this just so some central bank can store it away in vaults?
Is there any other commodity that expends so many resources just to be put in storage?
How much is all the gold in the world worth? Why don't central banks and governments just sell it?
The west is moving away from gold and paper money as well.
The east is accumulating and hoarding gold.
China is poised to take the lead and probably become the world currency by 2032.

I'm thinking as long as central banks and big money players want to hold gold, so do I. When the thought of a currency or banking crisis hits, thats when gold shines. Silver has a nice luster to it as well.
 

Cigarlover

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Yes. + it fits this ~10 year cycle we seem to have been on since WWII. It's due this year or next...

Despite that he often says by 2022... hedging maybe?

The algos will certainly be working over time to manage market outcomes IMO. Maybe it is forestalled this time, who can be certain?
I was reading another one of his blog posts last night about the and it sounded more like the rest of the world would be heading into this downturn in Nov but they would be flocking to US based assets so the US would be doing ok. I know I have read or listened to interviews with him before where he talks about the stock market could double from that time period and go to 34-40k. Not because its under valued but because there is no place else for the world to park money.
 

louky

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louky

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If/when $ kicks in gear, beware, That's all I can say

Took so long to develop, timing what's hard.

All my jan/feb notes call for 1200 or lower gold and say "buy 19 and lower gdx"

Charts were all here, but expired

Gdx
Suspect it will break below the range

Gold

Gold will play catch down.




Only question is how low does she go. Answer? Who knows for sure, but when does gold not drop further than "everyone" expects?
Gdx is going lower, see chart i posted
All these chart showed 19 and lower gdx coming and 1200 or lower gold
 
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Zed

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I was reading another one of his blog posts last night about the and it sounded more like the rest of the world would be heading into this downturn in Nov but they would be flocking to US based assets so the US would be doing ok. I know I have read or listened to interviews with him before where he talks about the stock market could double from that time period and go to 34-40k. Not because its under valued but because there is no place else for the world to park money.
Yeah, that is the theme he has held for a long time. Empire collapses toward the centre, (we) the periphery fall first aka strong dollar and its not such a good thing in the end. The gold bull may well be more real for us than you, at least at first. When all that money comes home it has to go somewhere! US blue chips, sounds plausible and insane all at the same time, like buying stocks in Zimbabwe as the gov destroys the economy. But hey, you are growing @ 4% sooooooooo!

This is going to get crazy.
 

Zed

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I'm thinking as long as central banks and big money players want to hold gold, so do I.
Tangible has to count for something if the system starts shaking. BTC, crypto etc is still an unproven instrument in a crisis. Peeps get very conservative when it gets real.
 

Strawboss

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When Italy cracks - which it will....all hell is gonna break loose. There will be a rush to get out of the Euro and buy dollars. Then - the question will be - who's next...and all eyes will look to Japan...and that money will then flow to the US...and then after all the money has rushed in...and the dollar cannot go higher...then the US will implode. China will be last man standing.

That's my take on Armstrong.

I have always mistrusted him ever since he got out of jail. Always thought he was given a deal he couldn't refuse. Dissing gold was part of that deal.

In hindsight - I would have done much better if I had listened to him over the years since...

But - I still don't trust him. I guess I am stubborn like that.
 

louky

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most important chart out there right now. forward looking. global slowdown will start being reflected in US numbers next 4-6 weeks. show's you trump pump from election. now it's gone. fake trump economy numbers are done unless fed changes course.

Been saying it two months, will be hitting US data soon. June 15th global growth died.
 

louky

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So yesterday trump was pumping strong dollar on Twitter. Now today, fake news wire is all about trump asking china for strong yuan. That's right, he's just pretending to like strong dollar. You know what's really coming.....louky already told ya.

Time is hard part, not the prediction.
 

Strawboss

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So yesterday trump was pumping strong dollar on Twitter. Now today, fake news wire is all about trump asking china for strong yuan. That's right, he's just pretending to like strong dollar. You know what's really coming.....louky already told ya.

Time is hard part, not the prediction.
I have no doubt in my mind that Trump will weaponize the Fed. He is in fact already laying the groundwork for it. What I am curious about is how a market crash would effect him personally - i.e. emotionally. How would he handle a crisis like that? What impact would it have on his ego? How would he handle the stress of his detractors being "right"?
 

Cigarlover

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When Italy cracks - which it will....all hell is gonna break loose. There will be a rush to get out of the Euro and buy dollars. Then - the question will be - who's next...and all eyes will look to Japan...and that money will then flow to the US...and then after all the money has rushed in...and the dollar cannot go higher...then the US will implode. China will be last man standing.

That's my take on Armstrong.

I have always mistrusted him ever since he got out of jail. Always thought he was given a deal he couldn't refuse. Dissing gold was part of that deal.

In hindsight - I would have done much better if I had listened to him over the years since...

But - I still don't trust him. I guess I am stubborn like that.
I don't blame you.. I do think he's pretty good with world events and how the economy and cycles work.. I've always wondered about his views on gold as well. Doesn't seem to fit the rest of the narrative but are we the older generation that wont let go? Personally I don't think so but since I am older I am biased. LOL. The younger generation may not recognize and understand real money but they have no money to speak of anyway and a boatload of debt. Those who will be buying real money have stacks of paper already and are typically older.

I thought I read somewhere that he mentioned going electronic with our currency. I don't see how that solves the problem of to much debt. Also have a problem with hackers, identity theft, and 25% of the US population doesn't have or want a bank account. What happens in a natural disaster or power outage? I think there always has to be some form of physical currency.
 

Goldhedge

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I think it is the way GIM styles links, I went back and underlined it but I think they may need to stand out a little more.
What I do is copy the link and embed it into the bolded title.

have to copy link, select/highlight title, then click on this doohicky

Screen Shot 2018-08-17 at 10.04.55 AM.png


in there select URL and paste.

Sometimes I even increase the font size if it's small. It shows up purty good then... viola:

Lunatic Fringe

You could even change the color to red or something, blue is automatic and works.