• Same story, different day...........year ie more of the same fiat floods the world
  • There are no markets
  • "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

stAGgering

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Whole lot of droppings, a pile of 'em.
Would not be remotely surprised by a pile of steamers next week.
Trend hinting for lower, lower everything and anything...
with inherent value.
 

Zed

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Here Hemke writes about why the COT report doesn't necessarily mean a moon shot is imminent. In other words - chop chop

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/what-is-a-bank-and-what-is-a-commercial.html
Yes, it is an indication but the devil lives in the detail.

However, the actual CFTC-reported data does not allow for these blanket conclusions and statements.
It does however give the top 8 and top 4 and you can be fairly certain who is in those groups.
 

louky

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Whole lot of droppings, a pile of 'em.
Would not be remotely surprised by a pile of steamers next week.
Trend hinting for lower, lower everything and anything...
with inherent value.
Been waiting on your target 1.5 years now while we hit every one up and down....maybe it'll finally hit if 1188 goes

Let's see an 1145 or less, as I sold @ 1236 and would enjoy acquisition discount and expect such.
Hit 1296 (top of next box) within a month, 1359 (bottom of upper box) within 6.

Ouch, left a lot on the table to be driving around flipping physical. LOL
 
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louky

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louky

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Also, too the moon targets would be crazy until upper box is box is breached. Already saw what happened at 2017 target 1359 and 2018 target 1368. Puking camel anyone? :D

1359 - bottom of the box
1368
1377
1386
1395 - top of the box

Anything from 1123 to 1395 is just more BS range.

Maybe one day.....too da moon!
 
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louky

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Something lil concernig from a fake news stand point. Whole pop started on US asking for talks with china, seemingly giving ground/weakening stance because trump's sept 5th live date has come and gone with no action. However, whole news is about Mnuchin, not trump. I'm not sure he even has authority, trump has overridden him before.

Just something to be mindful of til gold clears those resistance levels we've mentioned and made support

trump in the news now with real trade info. hit on 1215 rejection, just sayin'




https://in.reuters.com/article/usa-...essure-to-make-china-trade-deal-idINKCN1LT2D6

ECONOMIC NEWS
SEPTEMBER 13, 2018 / 10:50 AM / UPDATED 22 MINUTES AGO
Trump says U.S. 'under no pressure' to make China trade deal
pretty interesting, huh
 

louky

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I bought a pile of silver the other day so expect massive down arrows.
Did the same thing.....now guaranteed to drop!
i never really look at silver, couldn't care less. i buy it to get rid of excess cash, nothing more. thought i was done with it few years ago, but they kept it down low the whole time, so i just piled up more.

what's it going to matter if I bought at 15, 16, 17 after premium when i swap it for gold? it won't.
 
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Varmint Hunter

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i never really look at silver, couldn't care less. i buy it to get rid of excess cash, nothing more. thought i was done with it few years ago, but they kept it down low the whole time, so i just piled up more.

what's it going to matter if I bought at 15, 16, 17 after premium when i swap it for gold? it won't.
You are absolutely correct.....Thanks for the reminder.
Do you mind if I ask at what GSR do you plan to make the swap? .....of course assuming there's no boating accident
 

bemac

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i never really look at silver, couldn't care less. i buy it to get rid of excess cash, nothing more. thought i was done with it few years ago, but they kept it down low the whole time, so i just piled up more.

what's it going to matter if I bought at 15, 16, 17 after premium when i swap it for gold? it won't.
If I buy 100 oz @ 15 instead of @ 17 then I have $200 for clothes. I'm not handsome, I gotta at least dress well.

 

louky

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Dangerous times
Dumb money always assumes a trend will continue indefinitely. They buy at tops and sell at bottoms. I’m going to show you something and caution again that now isn’t the best time to keep chasing the stock market. Yes the Fed will probably manage to keep the market propped up ahead of the rate hike on the 26th but they are sowing the seeds of the next crash by not allowing the market to correct naturally.

ICL’s have to break the intermediate trend line… and they usually move well below the trend line before a final bottom. In the chart you can see where that trend line is and the magnitude of the correction that lies ahead. This is why I say be patient right now. There’s no need to chase the market and risk getting caught when the correction begins. I wouldn’t waste time and money trying to short. Just sit on the sidelines until that trend line gets broken, and sentiment turns bearish. That’s when you will get the next buying opportunity with a lot more potential than trying to pick up a few pennies right now and risk getting steam rolled if you don’t exit in time.


Failed cycle … confirmed

 
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louky

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You are absolutely correct.....Thanks for the reminder.
Do you mind if I ask at what GSR do you plan to make the swap? .....of course assuming there's no boating accident

If youre young enough and goal is to grow your stack as big as possible, then 45/80 seems best. that nets you 7 swaps in the last 30 years. That would be 50oz gold, to 20,000+ oz silver right now, for example. Waiting for the next swap....got storage?

If you just want to buy as much silver as possible, then swap to maximun amount of gold and have no time frame/chance of hardship, then try to wait for below 40, i guess.

Not a spring chicken or just need to swap for space/stability asap, maybe 50's? Seems like it could get there fairly "soon"
 
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louky

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So futures support failed at 1215 and lot of folks thought this time was gonna be different? "Someone" dumping contracts around the 15th of every month since "april 18 is going to be a major top" call from two years ago. Free markets.....

IMG_20180915_074632.jpg


Price tells all....1359/1368 failure = puking camel. 1188 on watch now...
 
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Goldhedge

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Everybody's prob seen this by now

View attachment 111072
Screen Shot 2018-09-15 at 9.36.26 PM.png


Great idea, but how does one avoid the vig?

At today's prices if you had 20 oz of gold it would be $23,860, or about 1700 oz of silver.

Would you prefer junk silver or rounds?
 

louky

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https://m.investing.com/analysis/th...s-screaming-short-squeeze-200344027?ampMode=1

The Paper Gold Market Is Screaming 'Short Squeeze'
John Rubino | Sep 16, 2018 12:02AM ET

Every once in a while the trading action in a given market breaks through its historically normal boundaries and starts exploring new territory. This can mean one of two things: Either something fundamental has changed, creating a “new normal” to which participants will have to adapt. Or the extreme move is a temporary aberration that will eventually be corrected by an equally extreme snap-back into the previous range.
The gold and silver futures markets are posing this kind of question right now, with speculators – who are usually net long – going net short, and commercial traders – who are usually net short – going net long. The following table shows how each group traveled even further into this unfamiliar territory in the past week.



The following chart illustrates how unusual this new market structure is. During most of the past year the speculators (gray bars) have been extremely long and the commercials (red bars) extremely short. Now they’ve swapped attitudes, with speculators betting that gold is going to fall and the commercials taking the other side of that bet.



The same process is at work in silver, where the departure from the norm is even more extreme. In other words, the speculators are very short and the commercials very long.



Presented graphically, the far right of the chart illustrates just how unusual the current action is. It’s possible that these two groups of traders have never been in this relative position before.



What does this mean? Either something has happened to realign speculator and commercial trader incentives and objectives, putting them permanently on the other side of their traditional positions, or the past few weeks’ action is an anomaly that will be corrected with an extreme move in the other direction.
Which is more likely? The latter almost certainly, because the commercials’ traditional net short position exists for business reasons. Gold and silver miners frequently sell their production forward using futures contracts to lock in a predictable price, and they place their orders through the banks that make up the bulk of commercial traders. As long as the miners continue to hedge, commercial traders will necessarily tend to be net short. Speculators, meanwhile, traditionally take the other side of this trade (because every trade has to have two sides), which means they have to be net long to make the market work. So at some point the balance has to be restored.
The timing is anyone’s guess, since the current market structure is virtually unprecedented. But when it happens it’s likely to be via a “short squeeze” in which the speculators begin to close out their short positions and find that they have to pay way up in order to do so.
 

savvydon

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View attachment 111135

Great idea, but how does one avoid the vig?

At today's prices if you had 20 oz of gold it would be $23,860, or about 1700 oz of silver.

Would you prefer junk silver or rounds?
No way to avoid the vig that is the price of admission. Premiums vary across the board and with time as well, so I don't think there is one right or wrong answer. Certainly with Eagles you avoid any chance of a reportable transaction but some people have issues with their premiums.

The main thing is to try to make trades at the extremes of the ratios, that way if you have to pay a little in vig and/or premiums it is still a worthwhile endeavor. 2c
 

louky

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in the example above, the gold would of grown from 120k to 650 k in value. that's real, maintained purchasing power, not stock market flat since 1971 value. even if you assume 1/oz premium on silver and 15/oz on gold for every single ounce traded. that's like 100k in "vig" total. however, that's not how it works. you have no further monetary outlay. the "premiums" are worked out in the swap (at least they are between my dad and his dealer). so the only premiums you have to consider are the initial entry ones. after that, there's going to be a trade off in value (ie, you don't get pure 1 for 1 ratio swap). the big picture mentality with this strategy should be about growing ounces, nothing else.

for me, it's generic primarily. reportable or not doesn't really factor in. generics are only reportable if you sell over 1,000 oz per transaction. in fact, no PM's are reportable if you follow the guidelines. you owe gains taxes either way, no matter if it's eagles or generics sold and no matter what quantity of each is sold.
 
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louky

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reading now that trump is going to implement 10% tariffs, rather than original 25% or additional 40% threats from last week or so. gotta test out how the market reacts, I guess

WSJ: The administration plans to start with tariffs of around 10% on as much as $200 billion of goods, below the 25% level announced in early August.
 

louky

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Total market value of the stock market, as measured by Wilshire 5000, was 26.1 trillion. U.S. real GDP for the third quarter was recorded as $17.2 trillion. The market cap to GDP ratio is, therefore: ($26.1 trillion / $17.2 trillion) x 100 = 151.7%. In this case, 151.7% of GDP represents the overall stock market value.
stock market means more to the US economy than it's counterparts world wide
 
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Goldhedge

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reading now that trump is going to implement 10% tariffs, rather than original 25% or additional 40% threats from last week or so. gotta test out how the market reacts, I guess
Better to slap them just a little instead of a knock out punch... death by a thousand cuts...
 

louky

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louky

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jelly

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The gold/silver miner ETF's have bullish candlesticks on the weekly chart. This doesn't mean we start heading higher immediately, but SHOULD be a good sign. After all, something like this is what you want to see at the low, to mark a turnaround.
SILs.png
 

stAGgering

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Jelly, charts look like a rip snorter to da moon !
Maybe after McMACD, STOLower, and deathcrossapocolysps beneficially drift after quarter closes.
Maybe.
So much paper and so much time to spend stealing from the poor.
It never stops.
 

louky

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CNBC
LATEST: Trump’s new tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods is a done deal as of today, and could be announced Monday or Tuesday, a senior administration official tells
will be interesting to see the initial reaction versus the ultimate move, both markets and gold