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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Goldhedge

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If one offered investors a fat tail put option that never decays or expires, costs about -1% pa to carry, has no counter party risk & no chance of ever becoming worthless, there would be a line out the door. But when one explains that this option is physical gold… no interest.

– S. Mikhailovich
 

louky

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louky

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Dollar setup suggests a pop. It's headed to 88 "soon", no doubt, but only question is whether it makes a negatively divergent higher high to 98/99 or even 101ish first

 

savvydon

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GDX just blasted through its 200-DMA.
I sold half of my GDX dec 20 calls today. I am locked in for a profit but going for broke that the fed will help us with a pop and the other half that I hung onto will take a moonshot. We c...
 

Zed

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Meanwhile down here in Oz I put on a healthy ~5% across all bases. It seems that we are getting excited at the prospect of 1250 being acquired?!

Willy Makeit?!

Hmmmmmmmmm....

Yawn.
 

Zed

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1260ish looks like the next sticky patch. FWIW. Of course I'm just saying that so gold can prove me wrong and blast straight through to ~1280ish. What can I say, she is a bitch.

Screenshot from 2018-12-19 16-27-46.png
 

louky

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So i posted for months to just watch 1251, since the crash happened. Showed 1251 on spot last night is where it stopped. Right now kitco app is stuck below 1251. It's their pivot number.

Now, see here on futures, look how it's trying for support on the pivot #1251. All that matters for higher targets like i've been saying. You can see it clear on 5 hours chart, lead in to fomc (coincidence i'm sure). 1269 bottom of the box is next significant #.

Look specifically at the two full green body candles at each spike up, dec 8thish and now. The base of them is 1251. Example why i say you don't need charts, just memorize and watch those numbers posted for years now is enough. Never changes. Even if it's not exact, which it normally is, the decisions always end up happening on them, ie fomc day.
Screenshot_20181219-012806_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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louky

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Rules say below 1251, top of lower box is opened up.
Just watching the numbers posted, you can know/predict easily what's next. When 1251 went, that's the pivot between boxes, so you know 1197 top of the box was coming. Same now, if 1251 becomes support, then you start looking for 1269 bottom of the box
 

louky

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1215 is small pivot to low box

1197 top of lower box.

1251 is pivot to upper box

1269 is bottom of upper box

All that matters forever and always


1215 on watch for now, here for years
View attachment 107917

Now here we are, fomc lead in and 1197 to 1251 in full focus. See me now? I've shown example after example for years, but people just get too caught up in fake news and such to realize how it's the same every time

1197 top of the box, 1251 pivot. NCN.... Hahahaha


 

louky

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Should be getting close with this action, all that will matter tho is 1251 pivot and 1269 bottom of the box on any upside move
Why now on first upside attempt in many months, is 1251 on full display for fomc day? Because # all that matters, not the news. It's primary pivot between the boxes. 1197 top of lower box, 1269 bottom of upper box. Never changes.
 

louky

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Need 1233 support, then 1251 pivot on the table. 1269 bottom of the box.
1251, 1233, 1251

Screenshot_20181219-022106_NetDania.jpg



1251=9
1233=9

1269=18



All that matters in near view is

1269 bottom of upper box
1251 primary pivot between boxes, opens up higher targets
1233 small pivot
1215 small pivot on the way down
1206 small pivot on the way up
1197 top of lower box
1188 mid point, magnet. This is where they primarily defend against the medium to longer term bear case
1179 bottom of the lower box

Not news, trend lines, ma's or anything else.
Yep. Nothing to get excited about under 1251. Plus no support even at 1233 yet.
You see that precision backtest????

eyes on 1233, then 1251.
 
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louky

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Simply put, just watch 1251. Pivot to upper box, posted for years. Also is 38.2 fib of the entire drop on a closing basis, 1360-1184. So i would watch for close above that before declaring gold is no longer at risk of being dragged down by yuan devalue
Sorry, but now i need to see 1269 support for a few days (bottom of the upper box)
 

louky

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barring some fluke black swan that is gold positive and known about by no one on the planet (not stock crash), it's going no where meaningful until 1233 is support. after that, 1251 pivot. IMO of course. don't care about news, CoTs, trend lines, MA's...... notta.
This. 1251 in full focus now, 1269 next important #
 

louky

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Ok, so enough quotes. NCN....

Just noticed this when i zoomed out to weekly. Use your imagination on this chart for potential pattern

Screenshot_20181219-024124_Samsung Internet.jpg


Screenshot_20181219-024621_Google.jpg



See the bowl forming? Picture like 1320ish by February maybe, where a handle would form. Just sayin'
 
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Zed

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Gold Weekly AUD --> This is more the cause of the excitement in the Aussie Gold Stocks. The all time high for us was in 2016 and since then we've been consolidating below 1750AUD. Weve got a shot @ breaking that soonish... then its a short 50 bucks and a bit to new highs. Of course this may be in the AUD falling out of bed in a USD "go home" event... but hey... I will take it.



Screenshot from 2018-12-19 19-23-19.png
 
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jelly

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I can’t remember the last time we had a run up in gold miners heading into a Fed meeting like we are having right now. I think we get a correction post Fed, but I’m not taking any trading positions yet. I want to see how the market reacts after the meeting.
 

savvydon

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I can’t remember the last time we had a run up in gold miners heading into a Fed meeting like we are having right now. I think we get a correction post Fed, but I’m not taking any trading positions yet. I want to see how the market reacts after the meeting.
I'm kind of like you in that I look for the possibility of a short term trend reversal on Fed announcements. GDX is looking strong so far this morning. I have split my remaining contracts between a higher limit order in case there is a quick pop and a lower stop in case we reverse direction. Now it is time to just buckle up and enjoy the ride.
 

louky

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Near the zero line is around summerish when louky was on and on about the economy tank job coming. Now the experts are getting on board



View attachment 119456
IMG_20181219_101021.jpg


The pros are always late. Then cnbc even later. Just wait til the news flips bearish and gets baby boomers panicking. I'm guessing they wont want to ride 50% loss this time around, like they did the previous 3 (or 4?) times
 

Goldhedge

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Federal Reserve raises interest rates THE FOURTH TIME since Trump was elected.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate as had been widely anticipated but signaled fewer rate hikes in 2019 than it had forecast.

Ahead of the announcement, the Fed was expected to set the tone for how it would handle an expected slowdown in economic growth next year, unprecedented political pressure from President Donald Trump, and investors who are nervous about the gradual removal of easy monetary policy.

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. This will lift the benchmark interest rate to its highest level since early 2008, when the Fed was cutting rates amid the Great Recession. Wednesday's decision was the ninth since the Fed started raising rates in December 2015.

Americans with credit cards and other short-term loans will soon notice the increase, but banks typically take longer to raise interest rates for savers.