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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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DJI - 15min

Screenshot from 2018-12-20 12-21-28.png


At around the mid point of today's trade we have about a 50% give back of yesterdays gold stock gains here in Oz. The lunch period usually sees "white collar" trade as they get it together to panic into or out of the trade of the day. Knee jerk stuff, the rest of the afternoon will give a clue as to whether the patient money is buying into the panic.
 

Goldhedge

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Stocks Are Crashing - Dow Dumps 900 Points, Banks Battered

by Tyler Durden
Wed, 12/19/2018 - 15:07


Not only "not dovish enough" but Powell confirmed that the balance sheet normalization will continue on auto-pilot (also tightening financial conditions)...

“The balance sheet is on auto pilot, we don't see balance sheet runoff as creating problems"
Stocks don't like it... Dow future are down 900 points from their post-fed spike.



The entire equity market is being taken down...



And banks are dumping..

 

Zed

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DJI monthly (2000 to 2018) with obvious support levels. The 200 month MA looks about right (14K odd) if the current major trend fails @ around the 19/20K mark. JMO.

Screenshot from 2018-12-20 22-12-46.png
 

Zed

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At around the mid point of today's trade we have about a 50% give back of yesterdays gold stock gains here in Oz. The lunch period usually sees "white collar" trade as they get it together to panic into or out of the trade of the day. Knee jerk stuff, the rest of the afternoon will give a clue as to whether the patient money is buying into the panic.
A bit weak into the close, gave back almost all of yesterdays gain. More weakness expected it would seem.
 

savvydon

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Gold leading the precious metals up this morning on the tailwinds of a dollar dump. It will be interesting to see if we can make it to Louky’s 1269 pivot and also how the miners react after yesterday’s drubbing. My last few GDX options expire tomorrow - it would be nice to see a push back up today.
 

jelly

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Silver is knocking on the door, wanting to breakout. If it's going to do it, I think we'll know very soon.
 

Goldhedge

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The 'problem' with that bet is one would have to trust the numbers.

How many iterations have been created over the years to get the desired result? Do they have it right 'this' time, or will the next version be 'the one'?

Do they even keep track the 'old way' to compare then and now? Are Dr John Williams Shadowstat's numbers more accurate than today's manipulated numbers?

Would Mises approve?
 

louky

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Trust fed data or the housing market, oil market, stock market (small caps, tech, financials, materials, energy, transports, homebuilders), auto market, lumber market, etc....?

Easy choice lol
 

stAGgering

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Silver is knocking on the door, wanting to breakout. If it's going to do it, I think we'll know very soon.


Yeah, I feel the same, looking at available info.
So... I prepare for a dive, as dive is as dive does Forest.
Silver breakout, what in the hell is that ?
 
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It's nice to be in all cash and gold for the time being. I kind of regret of not getting out sooner in October though but at no loss.
 

louky

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Just watching the numbers posted, you can know/predict easily what's next. When 1251 went, that's the pivot between boxes, so you know 1197 top of the box was coming. Same now, if 1251 becomes support, then you start looking for 1269 bottom of the box
1269, easy peasy
 

louky

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I dont really have an upward target at the moment.

That's why 1251 area is a pivot. To frustrate both the bull and bear traders.

Could stay range bound for all of april and I wouldn't be surprised
Note about the pivot. Doesn't mean it has to happen or takea month, but historical norm is to have a period of frustration before ultimate decision is made.

That's why you have 1269 in your memory. You don't get excited unless it cuts straight through bottom of the box. If that happened it's an impulsive move with some juicy fake news coming.
 
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louky

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Range 1251-69 now

Below and most likely it gets ugly, down to 1188 at least i'm guessing

All that matters is stock market, inverse pure
Always make notes if you're serious about a particular asset. Happens the same, each time. Even the same fake news. Lil stock market turmoil. ;)

Based off history, you dont want to see a sustained pivot back below 1251. Odds/past say it won't be pretty.
 
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louky

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1251 last year was trigger on fake north korea news, then straight to 1359 by september, for example. there was a pole spiker chart i posted that looked exactly like the 1215 one i posted this week. Just need good memory and fake news articles/kitco tracker


1251 is the major historical pivot between upper and lower boxes (1197-1269). last year august, spring board off it. this year failed and 1215 is next bounce that gets everyone excited. that's because 1215 is small pivot to lower box, so it will be defended whether by algos, aliens, or what, idk


all about the numbers though

1+2+5+1=9
1+3+0+5=9
1+2+1+5=9

so on and so forth

the longer it stays in a range, the more precise it will become. for example, first testing, it will bounce around the area. ie, no one believed 1305 when i've posted it for years, but by end of 6 months defending that area 1309ish etc then by May everyone and their mother was saying 1305.
This is how Louky called fake NORK news move, 1251 straight up to 1359 in 2017.
 
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louky

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Funds long again for the first time since june. Commercials increase their short position to its highest level since july