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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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Louky - everything you suggest is correct. By every objective measure - gold should correct here - at least a few %...

But - wouldnt it be just like gold to act in a manner that no one saw coming (until afterwards)? Surely there are enough fundamental/technical drivers to really propel gold upwards.
 

louky

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Louky - everything you suggest is correct. By every objective measure - gold should correct here - at least a few %...

But - wouldnt it be just like gold to act in a manner that no one saw coming (until afterwards)? Surely there are enough fundamental/technical drivers to really propel gold upwards.
Yeah, like i said plenty of times. Charts lie, but the numbers posted don't. All we have to do is watch for support on 1269, 1251 pivot if it corrects.
 

Goldhedge

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Trump took credit for it.
Greasing the midterm elections

during his campaign, Trump warned the stock markets were “a big bubble” created artificially by the Fed’s low interest rate manipulation.

now, people actually fall for this whole script/playwright of him attacking the Fed as crazy for raising interest rates and deflating that same bubble he called? Pure comedy.

False narrative, "theater with a purpose".
Kabuki theater in the round... Can't hardly wait for Act II
 

louky

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I'm super bullish long term obviously, but looking too far out is a fool's game. It's best to keep things in perspective short term. Just watching the significant numbers ensures that because they never change, ever.

It's really straight forward here. If 1269 breaks, then becomes support after retesting, higher targets open up. Not until then.

If this was an impulsive move, 1269 (bottom of the box) wouldn't stop it dead. That's my opinion based off history, but of course I can be wrong. So we watch and see.
 

Zed

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Zed

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DJI is over sold like July 2008, the dead cat should bounce if we don't hit a contagion. It won't take much to see short profit covering here... the bounce will be an interesting signal. July 2008 was muted, it hit a lot of selling until it became too much and the rest is history.
 

jelly

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NOVO has been poppin' lately. It had been tossed to the side for so long and forgotten about, I think investors are finally starting to realize the good deal.
I hold a small position, but haven't been staying on top of the story. Anyone know the latest intel on NOVO?
 

Strawboss

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NOVO has been poppin' lately. It had been tossed to the side for so long and forgotten about, I think investors are finally starting to realize the good deal.
I hold a small position, but haven't been staying on top of the story. Anyone know the latest intel on NOVO?
Bob Moriarty at 321gold talks about NOVO frequently. Says the typical way to do core samples wont work with NOVO because its a different animal. Says they just need to mine/process it and they will be happy with the results. Kirkland Lake tends to agree because they are a significant shareholder in NOVO.

And I REALLY LIKE Kirkland Lake...
 

louky

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That closing # on the chart (it's below bottom of the box) isn't what you want to see

Open 1269
High 1278

Posted for years

Close 1266. Noted.
 
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louky

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Futures close

Screenshot_20181226-173959_Samsung Internet.jpg



~1272 is 50% fib resistance so it's bearish to close back below it, even though on bottom of the box. One more negatively divergent high coming maybe.
 
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jelly

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I have mixed thoughts. Silver broke out on strength. Very good sign.
However, gold hit resistance at $1280, is overbought, and put in a bearish candlestick today. Bad sign. In addition, miners (GDX) are struggling the past few days to follow gold higher. If gold were to continue immediately past 1280, I would expect the miners to be busting higher in advance. But instead, it's getting sold off.
Where do we go from here? I think a pullback, but who knows? The stock market is in crazy mode, and is making speculating difficult. This might be a time to just sit on long term holds until we break above $1280 gold.
DYODD
gold.png
silver.png
 

dpong

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@jelly In addition to the great points you made, gold is trading in synch with broad stock market, though in opposite direction. They are not always so closely correlated, but they are right now. A relief rally in the broad market, something that I would anticipate soon, could further dampen enthusiasm for PM's, short to medium term (defined in terms of weeks).
 

dpong

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Bought $1000 worth of put options on S&P VERY early December. Regretted, thinking I bought too much, wish I had only bought $500, so looked for reason to lighten up. Dec 4th the market tanked and I was up big. Unloaded about half. On the 5th I unloaded 100%. Made a tidy profit, as I had purchased $1000 and sold for $3500 in about 4 days. I'm a genius right?

Today I checked the worth of the puts had I kept them. By my calculations: $50,000.

I am a wiser man due to this lesson. I hope.
 

Strawboss

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Bought $1000 worth of put options on S&P VERY early December. Regretted, thinking I bought too much, wish I had only bought $500, so looked for reason to lighten up. Dec 4th the market tanked and I was up big. Unloaded about half. On the 5th I unloaded 100%. Made a tidy profit, as I had purchased $1000 and sold for $3500 in about 4 days. I'm a genius right?

Today I checked the worth of the puts had I kept them. By my calculations: $50,000.

I am a wiser man due to this lesson. I hope.
9 times out of 10 your profits would have been a job well done...and likely to have been smaller had you stuck around longer.

I like to do 1/3s with options. Sell a 1/3 on a double...another 1/3 on another double and then ride the remaining 1/3 like a rented mule.
 

dpong

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I like to do 1/3s with options. Sell a 1/3 on a double...another 1/3 on another double and then ride the remaining 1/3 like a rented mule.
I agree with your strategy. Will implement something like that. Taleb told me I have to be in to win on "that day." I think we have some more opportunities coming up.
 

stAGgering

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Double check, Double check.
My psychological view of the oligarchs strategy, crush the metals before currency/debt demise.
Essentially a variation of history from 3000+ years ago, to Venezuela 3 years ago; same same same.
All I see is in todays price... bait, from USD point of view.


 

Zed

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It took the Dow 76 years to close above 1,000 (from 1896 to 1972). today it gained 1,000 points for the day (6.5 hours), first time in history.
Spot the relief rally.

Now lets see how much they can goose this. It could be telling.
 

louky

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Now we watch, ~1368 was the futures high

1359 bottom of box
1368
1377
1395 top of box

All you need, put away the charts. Need support on 1359
Remember back to april, bottom of the box 1359 pierced. Everyone and their dog thought 1368 high was a breakout. Just sayin'.
 
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Strange day, down 600 then up 260 on the Dow. I have never seen swings like this. Is this a relief rally or just a continuation of the bear? I can't seem to make of this rally. In 2008, we had days like this that lead to new lows.