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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

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Strange day, down 600 then up 260 on the Dow. I have never seen swings like this. Is this a relief rally or just a continuation of the bear? I can't seem to make of this rally. In 2008, we had days like this that lead to new lows.
 

louky

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Strange day, down 600 then up 260 on the Dow. I have never seen swings like this. Is this a relief rally or just a continuation of the bear? I can't seem to make of this rally. In 2008, we had days like this that lead to new lows.
Here's every day in SPX history (since 1923) that was down at least as much as today midday, and then closed up at least as much as today (at the close).

20181227_163956.jpg


The Great Depression, British Invasion Crash of '62, Black Monday, Global Financial Meltdown, aaaaand today.
 

nowon

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savvydon

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Strange day, down 600 then up 260 on the Dow. I have never seen swings like this. Is this a relief rally or just a continuation of the bear? I can't seem to make of this rally. In 2008, we had days like this that lead to new lows.
Feels like the bear clawing at the door. Lots of scratching and pawing going on. The play is starting to get rough.
 

louky

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We knew it was gonna rally hard from 2400 area - 2350 (200 ma) area and that's what's happening. Lets see once s&p over 2520ish how it goes
 

louky

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As of now, this is not a crash. Too controlled and predictable.
PPT announced their meeting next day after this post, not coincidence


Top Trump official calls bankers, will convene 'Plunge Protection Team'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary called top U.S. bankers on Sunday amid an ongoing rout on Wall Street and made plans to convene a group of officials known as the “Plunge Protection Team.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-convene-plunge-protection-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ
 

louky

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SPX lost -4.7% over two days, only to gain it all back, and then some, on the third day. Since the Depression ended, that's happened two other times:
Oct 9-13, 2008
Oct 24-28, 2008
 

stAGgering

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SPX lost -4.7% over two days, only to gain it all back, and then some, on the third day. Since the Depression ended, that's happened two other times:
Oct 9-13, 2008
Oct 24-28, 2008
Plunge Condoms on sale each of the days, bulk sales, lots of protection.
Didntchano ?
 

Zed

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Strange day, down 600 then up 260 on the Dow. I have never seen swings like this. Is this a relief rally or just a continuation of the bear? I can't seem to make of this rally. In 2008, we had days like this that lead to new lows.
Seems to be faltering quickly, normally the shorts cover for a longer period. Are they feeling brave or are they thin on the ground?

Anyone got a current short interest chart? Is this trade crowded yet?
 

savvydon

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PMs looking pretty strong at the moment. Looks like we have come a way climbing Zed's 'wall of worry'. If we can close for the week in the 1270/1280 range I guess that gets the bottom of Louky's box firmly underneath us...
 

louky

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Would be better off backtesting 1269 bottom of full box successfully....leads you to believe theyre putting a floor in.
didn't get much so i favor it still being more like a jenga puzzle at the moment.

Screenshot_20181228-055603_NetDania.jpg
 
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louky

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You think we are set up to visit sub $1100 gold again?
I think the setup is if you short gold it will be profitable with the right time frame. Fibs are marked for reference


We knew it was gonna rally hard from 2400 area - 2350 (200 ma) area and that's what's happening. Lets see once s&p over 2520ish how it goes
Peak today = 2520, 38.2 fib

Screenshot_20181228-170024_Google.jpg
 
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Best guess at the moment

Something fishy about this action, the volatility index had something like a quad bottom. I think next Mon will be the top if there is any remaining equity inflows from rebalancing. Then Jan 3rd could be "IF or BIG IF SCENARIO FOR A HISTORIC CRASH" Not talking about a 5% decline, maybe a 1987 style crash in a single day. It's just an observation and I rather be wrong than right. So many people piled on in the last few days thinking that "THIS IS IT" BOTTOM.
 

louky

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Something fishy about this action, the volatility index had something like a quad bottom. I think next Mon will be the top if there is any remaining equity inflows from rebalancing. Then Jan 3rd could be "IF or BIG IF SCENARIO FOR A HISTORIC CRASH" Not talking about a 5% decline, maybe a 1987 style crash in a single day. It's just an observation and I rather be wrong than right. So many people piled on in the last few days thinking that "THIS IS IT" BOTTOM.
IMG_20181227_185207.jpg
 

Zed

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Does the market really repeat as suggested??
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” as Mark Twain is often reputed to have said. (I’ve found no compelling evidence that he ever uttered that nifty aphorism. No matter — the line is too good to resist.)

The difference is always in the details, it changes just enough to fuck up the smart asses that think they know what is going on!

Flea bitten cynic? Me? Never!
 

Zed

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Something fishy about this action
I have this suspicion that the algos are acting as a virtual pack in that their programming is so similar that they are trading an "echo chamber" that spends a lot of time second guessing itself. Sitting over this I suspect that .gov or the ppt has algos designed to trigger the algos into action. Leverage on the leverage if you like. Under it all I suspect that the human traders are very thin on the ground these days, after all, can't beat them so join them or leave the game. Now that is all well and good while it works BUT, you hit the unforeseen, as in the flash crash, and you will see liquidity vapourise in comparison to past routs. Now the flash crash seemed to be more a technical condition, what if the condition is fundamental? What makes the algos rush back in if we appear to have hit a wall?

All I am saying is that these new market mechanisms may make the plunge more aggressive than we have seen in the past.
 
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ErrosionOfAccord

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No, at least not by 0hedge charts. They kept posting charts like that for years while the market kept going to the moon. They finally gave up after the readership started bitching about missing the best market of their lifetime due to following the Zeros.
 

louky

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No, at least not by 0hedge charts. They kept posting charts like that for years while the market kept going to the moon. They finally gave up after the readership started bitching about missing the best market of their lifetime due to following the Zeros.
I don't disagree, but that's not a zero hedge chart just for the record. I was just posting a visual for perry's words, wasn't meant as a prediction. Unless you mean that kind of theme.
 
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louky

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I see zero hedge one here in 2017, lol while market was roaring

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-15/1987-versus-2017-will-history-repeat-or-just-echo

I posted sept 2018 top since sept 2016 btw. I did rebalance 401k to 60/40 in 2016 before the correction, from 100% stocks for meat of the whole bull market. "Missed" the 20% pump on 40% of my account from 2016 to 2018 even tho it's right back to where I rebal'd...... and will go lower. imo trump pump will he erased at minimum.
 
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louky

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I have a bachelor's finance degree and masters so my primary view by nature is that market always goes up. In terms of long term account, there's no chance i ever miss a bull market.

Same with gold/silver, they're ingrained from my family since birth. So I might get bearish when everyone and their dog is bullish, but no chance I miss a move because bottom of the lake is lined with shiny.

Anything I post here is entertainment, trading funds. I don't really comment on investment advice/long term funds hardly at all, if ever because average joe can't expect to maneuver the wiggles in those. History says they always just go up and stats say just HODL. So best strategy is to manage your %'s of risk as you age. See paragraph one.
 
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louky

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Of course the big kick in the nuts to anyone that thinks their account went to the moon by fading zero hedge the last 9 years, is that their index fund hasnt performed when priced in real money

Screenshot_20181229-081010_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
 

louky

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Middle class

I guess when the stock market gained no value since 1970, that's why you produce lifestlyes like this, in "the greatest economy ever"?

6/10 US Jobs do not pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle

6/10 US citizens do not have even $1,000 in savings

51.7% children in the US live in homes receiving Federal Government Assistance

Oil
I guess in the greatest economy all times
there is a large demand for oil, and oil prices are rising?

Housing
I guess the economy is hitting on all cylinders when only 13% of Americans plan to buy homes next year. -50% less than a year ago. Single family home inventories are up 86%, Condo inventory up 188% and homebuilders and lumber are already in bear markets?

Retail
I guess in the booming economy, retailers (particularly malls) are walking away from leases even before they are up (Sears); with many defaults in the pipeline, which will leave investors in mortgage bonds and mortgage backed securities on the hook again?
 
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