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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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Louky - you dig up some of the coolest charts...

That leveraged loan chart with the ascending wedge should scare the beejeezus out of just about anyone... That monster is huge...
 

louky

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1269 bottom of the box, 1296 top of the box (historical NCN).

Current chart using retrace fib targets (ie, you dont really need a chart, just memory):

 
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louky

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No guarantees the pattern plays out, but just what price action implies



Just being honest. Right now feels like when i kept posting the puking camel all feb to april. Gold continued to make divergent highs from like 1330-40 when i was posting. Eventually hit bottom of the moon (up high box 1359-68), but crash still ultimately came like i posted originally, to 1160's.

Beware if 1251 fails, it's historical pivot between boxes 1197- 1269. All i can say for sure.
 
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louky

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This is update to the $ theme i've posted for two years. I know Zed had 100+ targets too. Doesn't "feel" like it would play out at the moment, but still valid....until proven otherwise



This is "feel"

Dollar setup suggests a pop. It's headed to 88 "soon", no doubt, but only question is whether it makes a negatively divergent higher high to 98/99 or even 101ish first
 
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louky

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Currently on trendline support and mid BB support, with room to upside....and at macd zero line. Wouldn't bet on it breaking down now without at least 98 or so.

 
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This shows that capitulation hasn't even started yet and everything is trending down. I think the bond to stock rotation and end of month 401k investments by their employers is stalling the decline on an overpriced market. It would be up to the Feds to be more accommodating such as reduce interest rates.
 

louky

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Also, from looking at their balance sheet as of 12/26, there was an additional 8 billion or so that needed to be removed to reach the 50 scheduled by 12/31 as well. whistle:
 
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Goldhedge

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This shows that capitulation hasn't even started yet and everything is trending down.
Folks I know (investors) tell me that June/2018 was when the 'getting out of the market' was good. One is my sister in law who, besides being an RN, also has a masters in financial planning. You could say she's a bit of an overachiever...

I asked her about investing and she said she's sitting on the sidelines in cash.

Does everyone here concur that we're in for a correction?

I can see it coming, but with computer algos trading one never can be too sure. Fed is reversing QE and interest rates are rising.

I'm waiting for confirmation that AuAg are getting ready to take off in response to a meltdown.
 
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Well I just started buying silver a couple weeks ago, take that for what it's worth.
 

Zed

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This is update to the $ theme i've posted for two years. I know Zed had 100+ targets too. Doesn't "feel" like it would play out at the moment, but still valid....until proven otherwise



This is "feel"
Yes... this next move up should yield mid to high 100's in historical relationships hold. The start seems to have been delayed a bit so I'm guessing that will mean we move either faster or farther than most expect.
 

louky

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louky

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Does everyone here concur that we're in for a correction?
I know what you meant (crash), but the correction phase already happened.

fake news trump in office pump is technically gone after a few more points, call it ~ 2300

fake news.JPG



Average market correction is like 3% historically

Most general market corrections start thursday, end on tuesday fwiw
This.

Typical correction = 2-3%

s&p corrected basically 20% already (bounced from 200 ma which was 20%)

bear market typically defined as > 20%
 
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louky

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the wild card is fed reversion to QE4. when (or will) they revert? very possible stocks, nor gold will, "give confirmation of take off", until then



Been posting this vertical recession timing band for a year or more, also posted sept 2018 top in sept 2016 here. Starting to look ominous?


crash scenario by the math? here's some calculations from sept 2018 at 2871 when it started looking toppy

S&P 500 Today: 2019E EPS = $174 (~12% Margin)
S&P = 2,871 = 16.5x 2019E EPS


Normal contraction: @ 9% Margin 2019 EPS = $131
S&P @ 13x PE = 1,697 (down 41%)


Market collapse scenario: @ 6% Margin 2019 EPS = $87
S&P @ 10x PE = 870 (down 70%)
 
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louky

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what started it all.....wick went to 2940 maybe if i recall, but i know "everyone" was bullish as hell on those two "breakouts" from the wedge

Still suggesting bearish overthrow, but we'll see


Last night I mapped out roughly what the pattern appears to be on the monthly chart. Even if it corrects, say 20% early next year. The monthly candles still add up to around this time 2018. That's where it points currently as far as the massive, nothing to hold it up, plunge.

Granted anything can happen. This is not investment advice. Etc, yada yada
expectation was more than 20% drop starting sept 2018; thereabouts, "around this time"
 
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louky

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SINCE WW2:
14 bear markets
7 in recessions
7 in expansions

Average bear market in recession -37%
Average bear market in expansion -24%

Considering US has been in the second longest expansion in history, as well as the rampant financialization of the economy....lets just go ahead and assume we're entering a recession.

What do you think the drawdown will be?
 
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Hi louky, I added two thick lines for interest. One problem with my lines it doesn't agree with the long term Value Line Geometric Index going back into the early '70s. I think it is safe to say it will come back down to 2000-2100 with the Fed's QT and interest rate rise.


1546184225964.png
 

louky

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I know what you meant (crash), but the correction phase already happened.

fake news trump in office pump is technically gone after a few more points, call it ~ 2300

View attachment 120704



Average market correction is like 3% historically




s&p corrected basically 20% already (bounced from 200 ma which was 20%)

bear market typically defined as > 20%
Since 1945 there’ve been 6 instances of markets that fell more than 19%, but less than 20% bear requirement. The longest: 531 days. The shortest: 45, w/average of 161 days. This 2018, weekend at bernie's market: 99 days.
 

Goldhedge

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Is this stock margin lending here? I guess.

Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
 

Goldhedge

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No new data due to .gov shutdown whistle:
What a perfect way to “hide” what’s going down, or up as the case may be....
 

Strawboss

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I contend that it has the overall shape of a pretty massive H&S bottom pattern. Also your BB analysis doesnt include the Feb/Mar of 16 piercing of the BB. I would also argue that the setup is almost identical to the 2015 low where it rose from the bottom band and then pierced the upper band - only to continue in a strong upwards move. Only time will tell - but this is often how strong trending moves begin...
 

louky

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I contend that it has the overall shape of a pretty massive H&S bottom pattern. Also your BB analysis doesnt include the Feb/Mar of 16 piercing of the BB. I would also argue that the setup is almost identical to the 2015 low where it rose from the bottom band and then pierced the upper band - only to continue in a strong upwards move. Only time will tell - but this is often how strong trending moves begin...
I've started to see everyone and their dog drawing that scenario now, where it consolidates like 2015/16 instead of dropping. so like you said, "we shall see"....if this time is different than the majority, but trading is about probabilities.

Sure the alternative is possible:

Ok, so enough quotes. NCN....

Just noticed this when i zoomed out to weekly. Use your imagination on this chart for potential pattern





See the bowl forming? Picture like 1320ish by February maybe, where a handle would form. Just sayin'
 
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Zed

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Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
Yes, broker provided credit secured against the stock purchased. Basically it's a guaranteed selling if the market moves past/to the margin posted (deposit).