• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
368
Likes
194
Well I just started buying silver a couple weeks ago, take that for what it's worth.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,137
Likes
12,540
Location
Just behind you.
This is update to the $ theme i've posted for two years. I know Zed had 100+ targets too. Doesn't "feel" like it would play out at the moment, but still valid....until proven otherwise



This is "feel"
Yes... this next move up should yield mid to high 100's in historical relationships hold. The start seems to have been delayed a bit so I'm guessing that will mean we move either faster or farther than most expect.
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Does everyone here concur that we're in for a correction?
I know what you meant (crash), but the correction phase already happened.

fake news trump in office pump is technically gone after a few more points, call it ~ 2300

fake news.JPG



Average market correction is like 3% historically

Most general market corrections start thursday, end on tuesday fwiw
This.

Typical correction = 2-3%

s&p corrected basically 20% already (bounced from 200 ma which was 20%)

bear market typically defined as > 20%
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
the wild card is fed reversion to QE4. when (or will) they revert? very possible stocks, nor gold will, "give confirmation of take off", until then



Been posting this vertical recession timing band for a year or more, also posted sept 2018 top in sept 2016 here. Starting to look ominous?


crash scenario by the math? here's some calculations from sept 2018 at 2871 when it started looking toppy

S&P 500 Today: 2019E EPS = $174 (~12% Margin)
S&P = 2,871 = 16.5x 2019E EPS


Normal contraction: @ 9% Margin 2019 EPS = $131
S&P @ 13x PE = 1,697 (down 41%)


Market collapse scenario: @ 6% Margin 2019 EPS = $87
S&P @ 10x PE = 870 (down 70%)
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
what started it all.....wick went to 2940 maybe if i recall, but i know "everyone" was bullish as hell on those two "breakouts" from the wedge

Still suggesting bearish overthrow, but we'll see


Last night I mapped out roughly what the pattern appears to be on the monthly chart. Even if it corrects, say 20% early next year. The monthly candles still add up to around this time 2018. That's where it points currently as far as the massive, nothing to hold it up, plunge.

Granted anything can happen. This is not investment advice. Etc, yada yada
expectation was more than 20% drop starting sept 2018; thereabouts, "around this time"
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
SINCE WW2:
14 bear markets
7 in recessions
7 in expansions

Average bear market in recession -37%
Average bear market in expansion -24%

Considering US has been in the second longest expansion in history, as well as the rampant financialization of the economy....lets just go ahead and assume we're entering a recession.

What do you think the drawdown will be?
 
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
238
Likes
135
Hi louky, I added two thick lines for interest. One problem with my lines it doesn't agree with the long term Value Line Geometric Index going back into the early '70s. I think it is safe to say it will come back down to 2000-2100 with the Fed's QT and interest rate rise.


1546184225964.png
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
I know what you meant (crash), but the correction phase already happened.

fake news trump in office pump is technically gone after a few more points, call it ~ 2300

View attachment 120704



Average market correction is like 3% historically




s&p corrected basically 20% already (bounced from 200 ma which was 20%)

bear market typically defined as > 20%
Since 1945 there’ve been 6 instances of markets that fell more than 19%, but less than 20% bear requirement. The longest: 531 days. The shortest: 45, w/average of 161 days. This 2018, weekend at bernie's market: 99 days.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,758
Likes
65,838
Location
Rocky Mountains
Is this stock margin lending here? I guess.

Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,758
Likes
65,838
Location
Rocky Mountains
No new data due to .gov shutdown whistle:
What a perfect way to “hide” what’s going down, or up as the case may be....
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,758
Likes
65,838
Location
Rocky Mountains

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,145
Likes
8,960
I contend that it has the overall shape of a pretty massive H&S bottom pattern. Also your BB analysis doesnt include the Feb/Mar of 16 piercing of the BB. I would also argue that the setup is almost identical to the 2015 low where it rose from the bottom band and then pierced the upper band - only to continue in a strong upwards move. Only time will tell - but this is often how strong trending moves begin...
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
I contend that it has the overall shape of a pretty massive H&S bottom pattern. Also your BB analysis doesnt include the Feb/Mar of 16 piercing of the BB. I would also argue that the setup is almost identical to the 2015 low where it rose from the bottom band and then pierced the upper band - only to continue in a strong upwards move. Only time will tell - but this is often how strong trending moves begin...
I've started to see everyone and their dog drawing that scenario now, where it consolidates like 2015/16 instead of dropping. so like you said, "we shall see"....if this time is different than the majority, but trading is about probabilities.

Sure the alternative is possible:

Ok, so enough quotes. NCN....

Just noticed this when i zoomed out to weekly. Use your imagination on this chart for potential pattern





See the bowl forming? Picture like 1320ish by February maybe, where a handle would form. Just sayin'
 
Last edited:

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,137
Likes
12,540
Location
Just behind you.
Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
Yes, broker provided credit secured against the stock purchased. Basically it's a guaranteed selling if the market moves past/to the margin posted (deposit).
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,137
Likes
12,540
Location
Just behind you.
Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
Not what Louky's chart was about. Not something I'm familiar with, basically our market is smaller and simpler.
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Went and checked in on GG. He's all over that potential cup and handle within the larger inverse h&s pattern, knew he would be

12-19 Gold.jpg
 

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,145
Likes
8,960
I miss Got Goldies...he used to keep things lively around this joint...
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,758
Likes
65,838
Location
Rocky Mountains
FWIW

Gold Mining Stocks Are Going Up Faster Than Gold
BY JOHN RUBINO ◆ DECEMBER 30, 2018

The past couple of years have been brutal for precious metals mining stocks. Gold and silver went down a little while the miners went down a lot – four times as much to be exact. That’s painful but not surprising. The miners, being in effect options on the underlying metals, tend to be a lot more volatile.

But volatility works both ways, and starting in November gold began to rise while the miners began to rise more.

See chart at link
gold vs gold mining stocks last two months 2018

With January normally being a great month for precious metals, it’s possible that the miners will be among the best performing sectors for a while. It’s also possible that the outperformance will have legs, as recent financial asset volatility sends capital pouring into safe haven assets.

On a related note, gold’s performance hasn’t been nearly as bad as it’s seemed. Even in US dollar terms, it’s up over the past three years and has returned an average of over 9% a year since 2003.

gold performance gold mining stocks


https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-miners-outperforming-gold/
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Here's a prediction. A gold short from here, 1296, 1305, or even if the divergent high goes even a bit further, will all be profitable ;)
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
FWIW

Gold Mining Stocks Are Going Up Faster Than Gold
BY JOHN RUBINO ◆ DECEMBER 30, 2018

The past couple of years have been brutal for precious metals mining stocks. Gold and silver went down a little while the miners went down a lot – four times as much to be exact. That’s painful but not surprising. The miners, being in effect options on the underlying metals, tend to be a lot more volatile.

But volatility works both ways, and starting in November gold began to rise while the miners began to rise more.

See chart at link
gold vs gold mining stocks last two months 2018

With January normally being a great month for precious metals, it’s possible that the miners will be among the best performing sectors for a while. It’s also possible that the outperformance will have legs, as recent financial asset volatility sends capital pouring into safe haven assets.

On a related note, gold’s performance hasn’t been nearly as bad as it’s seemed. Even in US dollar terms, it’s up over the past three years and has returned an average of over 9% a year since 2003.

gold performance gold mining stocks


https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-miners-outperforming-gold/
Interesting, i haven't really paid attention lately as it's been way more profitable elsewhere, but my feeling has been the miners were underperforming
 
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
238
Likes
135
I'm going to stay on the sidelines into New Years and beyond. I still think gold might go to the stratosphere.
I wouldn't want to be short because the markets may start to decline forcing the dollar to drop hard. This is the place where I would rather be on the sidelines and see what the markets are determined to do.


.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

#1 Global Warmer
Gold Chaser
Midas Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
3,796
Likes
4,430
Location
Coal Country
This was my first year of trading. My meager account of $3500 was up $1000 at one point to $4500. In the end, I sold nearly everything last week at a breakeven state in order to save myself the taxes on the $1000 gain. I'm A Loser keeps playing as my ear worm. Kept my CCTC so I have about $3100 in dry powder I can piss away at some point.