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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Is this what s considered “margin” borrowing... as in going out on a limb in ones account borrowing on margin to buy stocks??
Not what Louky's chart was about. Not something I'm familiar with, basically our market is smaller and simpler.
 

louky

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Went and checked in on GG. He's all over that potential cup and handle within the larger inverse h&s pattern, knew he would be

12-19 Gold.jpg
 

Strawboss

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I miss Got Goldies...he used to keep things lively around this joint...
 

Goldhedge

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FWIW

Gold Mining Stocks Are Going Up Faster Than Gold
BY JOHN RUBINO ◆ DECEMBER 30, 2018

The past couple of years have been brutal for precious metals mining stocks. Gold and silver went down a little while the miners went down a lot – four times as much to be exact. That’s painful but not surprising. The miners, being in effect options on the underlying metals, tend to be a lot more volatile.

But volatility works both ways, and starting in November gold began to rise while the miners began to rise more.

See chart at link
gold vs gold mining stocks last two months 2018

With January normally being a great month for precious metals, it’s possible that the miners will be among the best performing sectors for a while. It’s also possible that the outperformance will have legs, as recent financial asset volatility sends capital pouring into safe haven assets.

On a related note, gold’s performance hasn’t been nearly as bad as it’s seemed. Even in US dollar terms, it’s up over the past three years and has returned an average of over 9% a year since 2003.

gold performance gold mining stocks


https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-miners-outperforming-gold/
 

louky

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Here's a prediction. A gold short from here, 1296, 1305, or even if the divergent high goes even a bit further, will all be profitable ;)
 

louky

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FWIW

Gold Mining Stocks Are Going Up Faster Than Gold
BY JOHN RUBINO ◆ DECEMBER 30, 2018

The past couple of years have been brutal for precious metals mining stocks. Gold and silver went down a little while the miners went down a lot – four times as much to be exact. That’s painful but not surprising. The miners, being in effect options on the underlying metals, tend to be a lot more volatile.

But volatility works both ways, and starting in November gold began to rise while the miners began to rise more.

See chart at link
gold vs gold mining stocks last two months 2018

With January normally being a great month for precious metals, it’s possible that the miners will be among the best performing sectors for a while. It’s also possible that the outperformance will have legs, as recent financial asset volatility sends capital pouring into safe haven assets.

On a related note, gold’s performance hasn’t been nearly as bad as it’s seemed. Even in US dollar terms, it’s up over the past three years and has returned an average of over 9% a year since 2003.

gold performance gold mining stocks


https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-miners-outperforming-gold/
Interesting, i haven't really paid attention lately as it's been way more profitable elsewhere, but my feeling has been the miners were underperforming
 
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I'm going to stay on the sidelines into New Years and beyond. I still think gold might go to the stratosphere.
I wouldn't want to be short because the markets may start to decline forcing the dollar to drop hard. This is the place where I would rather be on the sidelines and see what the markets are determined to do.


.
 

ErrosionOfAccord

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This was my first year of trading. My meager account of $3500 was up $1000 at one point to $4500. In the end, I sold nearly everything last week at a breakeven state in order to save myself the taxes on the $1000 gain. I'm A Loser keeps playing as my ear worm. Kept my CCTC so I have about $3100 in dry powder I can piss away at some point.
 

louky

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This was my first year of trading. My meager account of $3500 was up $1000 at one point to $4500. In the end, I sold nearly everything last week at a breakeven state in order to save myself the taxes on the $1000 gain. I'm A Loser keeps playing as my ear worm. Kept my CCTC so I have about $3100 in dry powder I can piss away at some point.
Nice. Most people blow up multiple accounts. Preserving capital while you learn is success.
 
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Love this chart....SPX, with 10 year and unemployment at the bottom

View attachment 120828
I have to admit that the unemployment thing is a bit complex. Back in the 80's part time and full time pay were reasonable and people could save $. Today people with that part time and full time can either save or live by paycheck to paycheck. I'm not sure if there are people that work two jobs and more jobs to meet ends that would kind of skew the job stats. There are a lot of unknowns that that report which I call it a "gray area". Cool to show that stuff. Who's the next Minions to lose their jobs in 2019, not counting me (2 yrs)?
 

louky

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I have to admit that the unemployment thing is a bit complex. Back in the 80's part time and full time pay were reasonable and people could save $. Today people with that part time and full time can either save or live by paycheck to paycheck. I'm not sure if there are people that work two jobs and more jobs to meet ends that would kind of skew the job stats. There are a lot of unknowns that that report which I call it a "gray area". Cool to show that stuff. Who's the next Minions to lose their jobs in 2019, not counting me (2 yrs)?
Sears still has 90,000 employees, more employees than the entire coal industry at ~70,000
 

Goldhedge

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Sears still has 90,000 employees, more employees than the entire coal industry at ~70,000
And if you ever go to sears they're standing around for the most part...
 

louky

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The December Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey "unexpectedly" collapsed to minus 5.1. This is the lowest level in more than two years, and the biggest monthly drop since The Great Recession of 2008.
 

louky

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Books:


Market Data



Economic Data



Sentiment



COT Reports



Gold Informational Sites



ETF’s



Charting Sites (Free)



Charting Educational



Technical Indicators



Sites of Interest



Trading Educational:



Informative Trading Videos



Divergences



Options



Miscellaneous

 
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Uglytruth

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How do you have a recession with low unemployment?
 

louky

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62% of all Januarys are positive
67% of all years in general are positive
69% of all Januarys and years are the same direction
 

louky

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Since 1923 (start of spx)

Whatever the direction was on May 9 predicted the entire year 82.2% of the time.

Thru July 11 predicted the entire year 86.3% of the time.

By Sept 13, predicted to about 90% accuracy.

and Oct 24, 95.9% accuracy.
 

louky

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I've posted this blog a couple of times before over the last year or two, but he's a very good forcaster. I thought some people might like his most recent post.

Posted on January 1, 2019by Venkat Pulakkad
A very happy New Year to all!
Our market forecast for Q4/2018 was a great success and we met most goals for the indices as well as many individual stocks (some of these forecasts can be found in the Oct/Nov/Dec archives). In fact, SPY and QQQ exceeded our (bearish) forecast targets.
Here is my macro view on the S&P 500 for the first two quarters of 2019:
  1. On Dec 31, 2018, SPX and DOW closed below the 2018 Feb lows. This is uber bearish purely from a technical stand point.
  2. Markets might attempt multiple bounces but a sustained rally might be hard to come by, unless there is a satisfactory conclusion to the trade tariff battle with China.
  3. Over the next 2 quarters, despite bounces that are very likely, I expect the market trend to remain mostly bearish (I attach 80% probability to this). I do expect the GDP growth to start declining from Q2 of 2019 due to trade barriers and political upheavals, leading to more stock market upsets in 2019. While the numbers on the economy & jobs have been good so far, one should start paying close attention to the housing sector & the declining home prices besides the burgeoning trade deficits & Govt debt.
  4. For the bulls to gain back control and take the markets to new highs, they would need to push SPX above 2710 at the least. And that scenario right now is not looking pretty. So I would put the chances of a bull market for 2019 at only 20%.
Here is a chart representation of this macro-view:

More thoughts for 2019 as a whole (these are just some possibilities, NOT predictions):
1. Fed might raise rates once more or may not raise at all in 2019
2. Fed might start cutting rates in late 2019 and we might see at least 1 rate cut before the year ends.
3. GDP growth might start slowing down from Q2.
4. After some initial weakness, Dollar might gain some strength over all the currencies except the Yen. Yen to gain even more strength.
5. An extreme possibility is SPX and Gold reaching a “meeting point” as detailed below.

Gold and SPX:
Given below is my baseline thought for SPX and Gold in the event my fears about Q1 and Q2 come true and signs of a recession start appearing by Q2. I will need more inputs over the next 8-12 weeks to validate this thought and convert it into a “forecast”.
According to this baseline theory, there is a possibility that SPX (currently at 2485) and Gold (currently at 1278) could find a meeting point somewhere in the 1725 – 1925 zone.

Sounds impossible? Sounds unreal? Sounds ridiculous? Yes to all. That is why I call it as an “extreme possibility”.
But let me ask: in April 2008 when SPX was at 1400, how many of us expected it to tank to 660 by March 2009? And more recently, how many of us thought that SPX would crash below 2400 in December?
As far as Gold is concerned, it had lost its sheen over the last few years thanks to the ZIRP + low interest rate policy, continued bullishness in stocks and the crypto boom. With the crypto boom fizzling out and stocks losing heavily, I feel the time has come for Gold to re-acquire its lost sheen. And if and when market fear turns into panic, Gold could sprint at double the pace. My target for Gold in 2019 is 1500 – 1550 (with a lack-luster GDP but no recession) and in the event we get a confirmation of recessionary signals, then another $200 shouldn’t be a stretch for Gold.
Nobody gets it right all the time, but definitely worth bookmarking his site for later review
https://flourishrm.com/



Sunday Musings (it is all about parabola)

Posted on July 29, 2018
by Venkat Pulakkad

I am thinking August & September months are going to be all about major tech stocks and how the parabolic arc pattern plays out for FANG (not FAANG as I am leaving out AAPL for now). While I do think this pattern is going to push NFLX and FB considerably down, I am not so sure about GOOG and AMZN. They also certainly fit the pattern but might not have topped yet in my opinion.

What goes up must come down:
Parabolic arc is a reliable reversal pattern but when a stock has gone parabolically bullish, it is extremely hard for any one to predict its top and bid on a reversal. However, once the price breaks below the arc, the stock can typically retrace 50 to 80% of the gains it made on its parabolic run. This pattern is generally rare but currently, especially after the 9 year bull run in the markets, we may be seeing many instances / stocks where this pattern may be playing out.

Before we get into FANG, let us see how this interesting pattern has played out in the past in respect of a few stocks & cryptos.
Bitcoin (BTC) – a recent break of the parabolic run after hitting close to 20,000. It dropped 70% from the highs


Ethereum (ETH) – a recent break of the arc and a very big reversal. In just under a month, it lost 83% of the gains it made between Dec 2017 & Jan 2018

And here is the parabola break forecast I posted on Jan 10, 2018 before that fall in ETH:

Nectar Therapeutics (NKTR) – another great example of parabola arc reversal. Retraced 77% of the bullish wave

Qualcomm (QCOM) – the 1999-2000 classic parabolic run and bust

That explains it. Parabolic arc patterns are rare but can certainly lead to major reversals, after exhaustion of the run. Now let us see where we are with FANG stocks currently:

NFLX – this is a Forecast chart that I posted before the recent fall in NFLX (on Twitter & StockTwits on 7/13). My forecast was for the price to break below the arc after topping in the 400 – 450 zone. Now that the arc is definitively broken, I am expecting a further drop (retracement of at least 50% of the gains from the parabolic wave).


FB – here, the arc is most certainly going to break. A drop below 170 would confirm it. Looking now to test that support at 115 (minimum target) if 168-170 breaks this time.

AMZN – this is the toughest one and I am always scared to short AMZN but certainly this fits into the parabolic pattern. It could break the arc around 1775 (OR) it could run a little more, may be to 2100-2200 and then drop to break the arc. At this time, I am not sure if last week’s ER was a good enough catalyst for the break. Gutsy bears are going to win eventually, sooner or later. (I posted this chart on Twitter & StockTwits on 7/27)

GOOG – another one, but I think it is not yet ripe for a break. Some more steam may be left before it becomes a victim of the pattern.

SPY – And finally, I have for you, the SPY chart. Tough one again – the reversal might happen right now or after a jump to the 310-320 zone but when it happens, 180 might very well come into the picture.

Let me not say all these reversals are bound to happen but based on the past, I would say these reversals are “very likely”.


 
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