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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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LOA (look out above) if all those natural buyers coming in at the lows push it over 2520
I'm really unsure what to expect here.
 

louky

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I'm really unsure what to expect here.
I agree.

Lower ultimately, but wont be surprised if there's a sharp "wiggle" first.

only thing we don't know for sure is how soon full QE4 gets unleashed to send it flying again to the real blow off top. S&p 3500? 4000? o_O

IMG_20190104_053352.jpg
 
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louky

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Definitely going to dump hard at some point, 1296 (long term trend line), 1305, 1309 , 1320?????

Probably fall straight back to 1251 pivot area with this lack of back testing
Sounds familiar? I think eventually we'll see what happens at 1251 pivot or if lucky 1269 bottom of the box holds
 
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louky

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Rules tell us top of the box (1296) is the place to manage risk, for trading purposes.

Looks like $ might cream everything
Why you memorize it



Then when it's time to go up high with targets, you know it immediately

To be honest, right now it looks like gold is gonna spring board above 1296. At least for a pop
Looks like we have no choice but to set a target of 1359 now, we'll see.....
 
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What happened today? The markets went up a straight line. Is this start of a continuation bull market or what?
 

louky

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https://northmantrader.com/2019/01/04/the-ugly-truth/

The Ugly Truth
BY SVEN HENRICH ON JANUARY 4, 2019• ( 8 COMMENTS )
For years critics of central bank policy have been dismissed as negative nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us all in the face: Market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central bank jawboning and not organic growth and now the jig is up. As I’ve been saying for a long time: There is zero evidence that markets can make or sustain new highs without some sort of intervention on the side of central banks. None. Zero. Zilch.

And don’t think this is hyperbole on my part, I will present the evidence of course.

In March 2009 markets bottomed on the expansion of QE1 which was introduced following the initial QE1 announcement in November 2008. Every major correction since then has been met with major central bank intervention. QE2, Twist, QE3 and so on.

When market tumbled in 2015 and 2016 global central banks embarked on the largest combined intervention effort in history to the tune of over $5 trillion between 2016 and 2017 giving us a grand total of over $15 trillion in central bank balance sheet courtesy FOMC, ECB and BOJ:



When did global central bank balance sheets peak? Early 2018. When did global markets peak? January 2018.

And don’t think the Fed was not still active in the jawboning business despite QE3 ending. After all their official language remained “accommodative” and their hike schedule was the slowest in history, cautious and tinkering not to upset markets.



With tax cuts coming into the US economy in early 2018 along with record buybacks markets at first ignored the beginning of QT (quantitative tightening), but then it all changed.

And guess what changed? 2 things.

In September 2018, for the first time in 10 years, the FOMC removed one little word from its policy stance: “accommodative” and The Fed increased its QT program. When did US markets peak? September 2018.

And with the sugar high of the tax cuts fading it was too much. Add trade wars and global growth slowing it was more than markets could handle.

And so yes, the timing was perfect and you can see it in the chart:



Who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?

Global central banks did the dirty work for the Fed between 2016 and 2017 adding ever more artificial liquidity. But then the ECB slowed their QE program and finally ended it in late 2018.

How did the $DAX handle all that removal in artificial liquidity? Not well.



DAX peaked in January 2018 as the ECB started reducing its QE program.

The Fed likes to claim it is managing policy based on the economy, not on markets. But here’s the ugly truth on that: The economy these days is very much tied to market performance. Big drops in markets have an adverse impact on the economy full stop. Hence it is a fallacy to argue that one looks at one but not the other.

After all, tell me when the Fed ever hikes during a massive market correction? The answer: Never. It’s always the other way around.

As soon as markets drop all plans for rate hikes and/or balance sheet reductions come to a sudden halt:



Recognizing the market’s sudden found sensitivity to QT the Fed was sure to react. After all markets were sensitive to slowing growth in China, $AAPL’s warning this week and the renewed sell-off in markets as a result.

And what did we get this very morning? The predictable jawbone:

Powell says Fed ‘wouldn’t hesitate’ to tweak balance sheet reduction

We don’t believe that our issuance is an important part of the story of the market turbulence that began in the fourth quarter of last year. But, I’ll say again, if we reached a different conclusion, we wouldn’t hesitate to make a change,” he said. “If we came to the view that the balance sheet normalization plan — or any other aspect of normalization — was part of the problem, we wouldn’t hesitate to make a change.”

Bullshit. Of course it is and he knows that and he dangled the carrot and that’s all that mattered.

Who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?



This move came on the heels of China’s overnight intervention announcing a coming cut in its bank reverse ratios by 1%.

So don’t mistake this rally for anything but for what it really is: Central banks again coming to the rescue of stressed markets and their action and words matter in heavy oversold markets.

But the reality remains, artificial liquidity is coming out of these markets:



Although the Fed, as indicated by Powell may slow or even halt their projected path. On a dime. And that’s what markets are reacting to today.

Central banks keep claiming all this is done to support growth. What growth? What has actually been accomplished?

All this intervention has not produced sustained accelerating growth, certainly not compared to previous cycles.



Tax cut sugar high aside all growth projections for 2019 are pointing to marked slowing with recession risk rising.

The only thing that has really grown as a result of all this cheap money and intervention is debt:



Corporate debt has doubled since 2007. Government debt is expanding with no end in sight having risen by another $2 trillion in the first 2 years of the Trump administration.

And so here we go again:



And central banks have already begun to react.

What’s the larger message here? Free market price discovery would require a full accounting of market bubbles and the realities of structural problems which remain unresolved. Central banks exist to prevent the consequences of excess to come to fruition and give license to politicians to avoid addressing structural problems. And by preventing these market forces from playing out at each sign of trouble the can gets kicked further and further down the road. Each successive recovery keeps the illusion alive but the jingle is getting tighter and tighter each time around and requires ever lower rates before the monsters return. In the meantime debt keeps expanding while each recovery produces less and less organically driven growth, but ever higher wealth inequality. This is what this system produces.

And that’s the ugly truth. But you won’t hear it from the Fed.
 
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Zed

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AUD gold got monkey hammered!
 

louky

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NCN isn't about exact precision, even though it usually is. gives you mental notes about price action and where main decisions are normally made. no confusing indicators, imaginary lines, etc required. never changes either.

backtesting = healthy btw, and that's all i'll say about that



ncn.JPG


posted l iterally for 2 years, several jan 2017 quotes here

1200 hot butter, nothing there. 1197 key, then 1206
Invisible lines to watch now, same as before. Nothing at 1200 hot butter, so 1206 and 1215. Pretty clear from 1216 to 1233
1098

1179-1188-1197

1215 small pivot

1251 pivot

1269-78-87-1296

As long as we're in this range, everything else is noise
Bounced to the penny 1197.00 on first test. That's houdini esque.

Know the box, it's all you need

Above 1197 we're bullish

Below 1188 bear territory

Below 1179 bear market resumes



My guess is we'll spend some time at 1197-1215

 
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louky

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well i will say a little more about the back testing comment.

just look at all the numbers posted for years and wicks

now take note of pure backtests on 1179, 1188, 1197, 1206, 1215, 1233.....mostly to the penny

above that? whistle:whistle:whistle:whistle:
 
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louky

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auy acted right, almost up 20% "cash machine" NCN

when it doesn't "act right" at 2, then it's going lower. next attempt at 1.70 area maybe, down to 1.50. otherwise, if it takes back 2 it can be a cash machine. not advice to buy, just showing what i would look at with price only.

View attachment 115075
went to 2 but google doesn't capture intraday

auy.JPG
 
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dpong

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@louky Would you mind stating what is NCN? Long thread: TLDR; Thanks!
 

dpong

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Nice job. I'll continue to follow along. BTW, S&P and Gold -both- trading up recently. Gotta think that doesn't last long.
 

louky

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The market could have a juice left. If you look at the size of this rise verses the last two, you can see the "V" still has potential to form higher. As always DYOD.

Wouldn't it be something if this is what they have planned or bigger?




Or more is it more like this?

Ok, so i did some deep diving and found the chart on one of my drives. See the "V" sharks mouth top? Just like I drew it lol. I drew two versions as you can see by the dead link pics above, one showing a potential to go way up higher. Here it is:

sandp4.JPG


Here's file details, can be compared to the date of the original quoted post
sept 18 top.JPG



I'll be honest, it seems too obvious now that it's happened. I see everyone talking about head and shoulders now and drawing the same pattern I drew 2.5 years ago. So becomming increasingly doubtful it plays out. Watch the QE spigots get turned on to kill the pattern.
 
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louky

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two days later after that chart was drawn, i mapped the monthly candles and came to the conclusion "around this time 2018", ie septemberish 2018.

Last night I mapped out roughly what the pattern appears to be on the monthly chart. Even if it corrects, say 20% early next year. The monthly candles still add up to around this time 2018. That's where it points currently as far as the massive, nothing to hold it up, plunge.
 

louky

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Now here'a a guru/blogger chart posted jan 2019.
See what i mean about too obvious and unbelievable? Everyone and their dog drawing it....

....and the "V" shark's mouth top completed btw, right on schedule, "around two years" from sept 14th 2016 original post



 
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louky

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1800-2000 area could be a guess as to where the spigots get turned on, policy reversal, QE

fake news trump was elected at 2,000 s&p

trump pump himself called s&p a yuge massive bubble during his campaign at 2000, so that gives perspective that there's potential for much lower even

bare minimum the whole move he aligned himself with and based his entire presidential success on for the last two years gets erased, imo.....
 
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