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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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This years 2nd trading day was the 2nd largest drop in market history behind the 2000 NASDAQ bubble.

This years 3rd trading day was the 2nd largest rise in market history behind the Great Depression in 1932.

Years that saw both a Top 10 Best AND Top 10 Worst day in each of the first-five-trading-days of a year: 1932 2001 1988 2009 2019
 

louky

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Vix, normally bounces from this macd level
December 21 and 24 saw put/call ratio for VIX super low (sub 20) means folks betting heavily on higher. VIX went from 35 to 21.

Friday p/c ratio for VIX 96%. So now they are betting heavily on lower VIX.

S&P DSI/sentiment lowest since jan 2016 at 5, VIX highest since then


View attachment 119818
As of now, this is not a crash. Too controlled and predictable.
Screenshot_20190105-134711_Google.jpg
 
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Strawboss

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Louky - your work is very impressive. I have been interested in quite a while - but I mostly lurk here...

Not sure if you have talked about this before - but how do you determine the boxes (top and bottom) along with pivots and whatnot?

Or is that like asking for the recipe for the secret sauce?

Asking for a friend...
 

louky

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Posted a little about it before

On the charts, boxes (not really same thing as gold boxes/same idea), you can use probable fib retraces/targets. Works well most of the time once you get good at direction, ie divergences, trend buying, etc.

As far as gold. The boxes are based off price history/action, forever. There are no tools. Just time and study. Like how thursday night, i posted they walked gold up, 1287 backtest, 1296 back test, etc. Then today, 1278 hits because it didnt last time and 1305 fail means pivot below 1296. For whatever reason, price is attracted to certain numbers, in certain areas. It never changes and trend lines, fibs, ma's, bb's etc don't define them.
Basically with gold, the same thing I marked on that chart today, showing 1197 up to 1296 and the price action. I did that on historical charts for the same price levels and began to notice it was the same, time after time, year after year. Even the same "fake news", stock market turmoil, etc would be happening. I just don't think the average person notices it because they're too caught up in the news/distractions looking for a reason other than price action. I use to be the same way. A lot of times, i post, "kitco tracker stuck on this number all day". Well it's always the same ones, which is just what I started to notice, then look at individual candles/time frames to see why or what normally happened next.

So applying the same theory to individual stocks or indexes, you can create boxes with fib targets primarily. Markets mostly trade off those nowadays anyway. Study about PRZ's, "price reversal zones" or "potential reversal zones", how to recognize institutional demand/supply zones, divergences, and I personally like abcd patterns. All this will help make good "boxes" and anticipate direction.
 

savvydon

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Posted a little about it before



Basically with gold, the same thing I marked on that chart today, showing 1197 up to 1296 and the price action. I did that on historical charts for the same price levels and began to notice it was the same, time after time, year after year. Even the same "fake news", stock market turmoil, etc would be happening. I just don't think the average person notices it because they're too caught up in the news/distractions looking for a reason other than price action. I use to be the same way. A lot of times, i post, "kitco tracker stuck on this number all day". Well it's always the same ones, which is just what I started to notice, then look at individual candles/time frames to see why or what normally happened next.

So applying the same theory to individual stocks or indexes, you can create boxes with fib targets primarily. Markets mostly trade off those nowadays anyway. Study about PRZ's, "price reversal zones" or "potential reversal zones", how to recognize institutional demand/supply zones, divergences, and I personally like abcd patterns. All this will help make good "boxes" and anticipate direction.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t all of your NCN numbers’ digits add up to 9 or a multiple of 9?
 
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nice charts thrown by famous passer Louky!

As the gov't shutdown continues on forever, I have a friend who works in the gov't is fretting about the struggles to pay his house mortgage and other bills. I don't know if the gov't is going to delay this shutdown for three months, if so we could see spx sliced by 1/3 of its value by this mid March; although the stock market pe's are just not justified.

My social security "disability" benefits are safe, just don't tell anyone, lol
 
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The algos control the markets. They constantly reprogram it to stabilize the markets and rally to new highs. If the algos want to tear up these markets, then they have my vote.
 

Goldhedge

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I have a friend who works in the gov't is fretting about the struggles to pay his house mortgage and other bills.
Lives from check to check I'll bet...

You'd think working for the govt one would know the history and what happens when govt shuts down...
 

Zed

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Gave up ~3% today, a bit bloody.
 

savvydon

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Gave up ~3% today, a bit bloody.
Looks like we are in for some bump and grind. Metals modestly higher with a weakening dollar thus far. Lets see what the miners bring on this side of the marble this morning...
 

louky

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Looks like we are in for some bump and grind. Metals modestly higher with a weakening dollar thus far.
Two successful touchdowns on bottom of the box today, 1278. Should be one more maybe, then theoretically the ping pong ball bounces back to top of the box 1296
1978 bottom of inner box incoming, never changes



View attachment 121309
Read 2017 quote, then look at the price action, 1296 top of box this morning. :D
 
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louky

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Dollar and nothing else matters whatsoever, two taps on 1278 with wicks and go. 1296. Posted 2 years ago. Box did it :p

Screenshot_20190107-083221_NetDania.jpg
 
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louky

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Shutdown gov so you dont have to post data that shows economy is slowing and you can pump stock market deceptively with fake trade news. Classic.

IMG_20190107_084357.jpg
 

louky

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As of now, this is not a crash. Too controlled and predictable.
Top Trump official calls bankers, will convene 'Plunge Protection Team'
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary called top U.S. bankers on Sunday amid an ongoing rout on Wall Street and made plans to convene a group of officials known as the “Plunge Protection Team.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-convene-plunge-protection-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ
Up 10% since ppt called in
 

Zed

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Looks like we are in for some bump and grind. Metals modestly higher with a weakening dollar thus far. Lets see what the miners bring on this side of the marble this morning...
That Monkey has the hammer out again today. Gold stocks coping it here! More grind than bump.
 

Strawboss

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Yup - recessions follow periods of full employment (boom times) fed by unsustainable debt loads. Recessions clear out the bad debts and the cycle repeats anew...albeit from a higher level of debt than the previous expansion.

Rinse and repeat until the debts become so massive - they implode the system...
 

louky

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Fake news ended, "both sides not ready to agree" on trade.

Looking for break 2440 ish s&p to comfirm top in