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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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With no COT reports - they could be selling GC like crazy...or building positions like crazy...no way to know...

The miners dont seem too enthused though...maybe thats a function of not having visibility??? No freaking idea whats going on...

Trillion dollar deficits
Govt shutdown with no end in sight
Trade war
Fed pausing further rate hikes
Economic activity decelerating

Next big move...up or down...

Our resident guru is still contemplating...

Come on louky...this is what we pay you the big bucks for...
 

louky

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Last CoT was dec 18th and funds were going crazy adding longs, commercials and especially banks getting short. It's reasonable to assume this has continued with goldies $40 higher.

Techs and pattern are very bearish, imo

Hence, I would have to think the next significant short term move is down, with 1330 or so still on the table, but 1296 top of the box.


That said, my orginal thesis was summer july low (came two weeks late august) with april/may 19 being the next significant top before the next big sell off. So it could take a while to play out. Hence why i was still debating.
 
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Strawboss

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Last CoT was dec 18th and funds were going crazy adding longs, commercials and especially banks getting short. It's reasonable to assume this has continued with goldies $40 higher.

Techs and pattern are very bearish, imo

Hence, I would have to think the next significant short term move is down, with 1330 or so still on the table, but 1296 top of the box.


That said, my orginal thesis was summer july low (came two weeks late august) with april/may 19 being the next significant top before the next big crash. So it could take a while to play out. Hence why i was still debating.
I dont want to rush you in your analysis...take your time. Thats why we pay you the big bucks...
 

Strawboss

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ABX just curious if this is a new trend here? Is my resistance line correct??

View attachment 122131
Looks like a backtest to me...

Confirmation is needed by price rising above $14 on a weekly close.

For the record - I am up to my gills in GOLD call options (formerly ABX).
 

louky

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The risk/reward just isnt there on gold at this level, if not already long. I would look to buy at the next significant sell off and bigly. Million dollar question is, "how low does she go?". No one knows....
 
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louky

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That said, my orginal thesis was summer july low (came two weeks late august) with april/may 19 being the next significant top before the next big sell off. So it could take a while to play out. Hence why i was still debating.
This should test 2016 highs again, if I was correct.
 
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louky

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US has had three cyclical growth slowdowns since 2009, avoiding a recession. This one may be no different. All I've said is "slowdown", "not a crash", thus far and said it was coming since june. The retail, auto, homes, etc are all confirmation of that in my mind. That it's here. Could go either way, delayed again or snowball. No one knows.

That said, we're on month 39, the longest streak in history, tied for, without an acknowledged recession by the Fed.


Dec 2018 is the 38th consecutive month without a recession (according to the fed).

Care to guess the longest streak ever, since the great depression? (Hint it's thirty nine) :p
 

louky

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Regarding cot data . They were progressively building shorts. Total reversal of trend and positioning with gold ~40 higher? I doubt it, but no one knows with hidden data.

Gold COT

Funds long again for the first time since june. Commercials increase their short position to its highest level since july
CoT report summary, smart money added shorts at 1251, dumb money longs.
 

louky

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I hate to even post the gold chart again. It's not a prediction, but like any chart i post, what I see.

For example, in feb-april, i had no problem posting over and over puking camel. Even up to the very day in april gold topped. That it was going to crash hard. Despite paid experts like the gold advisor guy, posting videos that 2016 breakout was guaranteed happening then, "forgone conclusion", they said.

My long term thesis and the chart techs matched. So I knew gold was crashing and it did, to the level i posted orginally, puking camel 1160. "Done deal ".

Now, i'm not so clear, hence the pause on making a prediction for strawboss.

My original thesis was generally up, til mayish 2019, from July 2018 bottom. It seems we're on pace for that with the nice, huge, rounded bottom.

However, the chart, i can only post what I see and there's echos of camel's hooves in the background.

 
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louky

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Here....see below.

Once this bottom finally gets carved out. Think it's going to be a big rally where people sell too early and it keeps going up generally into may or so maybe before the next crash into summer. Not saying there wont be pull backs of course.
We're at or near that uncertainty moment (next immediate direction down), where potentially everyone sells too early and it keeps surprising to the upside after that.

All I know for sure is 1278 in focus, 1305 historical pivot above and 1318ish-1322ish is big fib zone of current moves

1318 Close = 76.4% of 1360 to 1184 on a closing basis.

1318 = 76.4% of 2016 High at 1377 to December 2016 low of 1124.

1322 = 76.4% of 1369 to 1167 on an intraday bas
 
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louky

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For some perspective, i'm potential bearish here, til i'm not. Just have to see a certain thing first.


Same tone as now

Nice, triple top at 1296 still possible of course. Thought gold needed 1240ish last week and we only got 1251. Next flush may be the time to buy, i wouldnt be chasing here

Starting to flip
To be honest, right now it looks like gold is gonna spring board above 1296. At least for a pop

Full bullish
Looks like we have no choice but to set a target of 1359 now, we'll see.....
Gold hits 1359 from 1296, almost immediately. Called in real time before fake news came.
 
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louky

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louky

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before it's fake news

Economy was strong enough for hike's, it's not strong enough for increased hike schedule AND relentless liquidity reduction the next 12 months, equal to size of Swedens GDP. Market is/will send powell a message if he doesn't adjust, only question is does he bend/break or let it crumble.
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message.JPG
 

louky

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before it's news

global growth has crashed
yield curve crashed
rates crashed

all good here, keep plan to increase hike schedule, Powell :oops:


https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/...st-interest-rates-st-louis-fed-president.html




Keep talking about market drop on tariffs news media. Nothing to see here lol


Step 1 - devalue yuan
Step 2 - crash spx
Step 3 - end trade issues
Step 4 - allow yuan to increase
Step 5 - watch fed end hike campaign
Step 6 - watch gold go up 150
Step 7 - watch spx rally 150 off lows
1 check
2 check
3 semi check - fake news by trump saying it will end, but nope, far far from it i assume
4 check
5 semi check - fake dovish news while they pump stock market so they can continue
6 check
7 check - up even MOAR
 

louky

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Slow down here. They finally told us in the news.

China attacking US.
Industrials warning of slow down as many slip into bear market.

banks continued getting crushed
banks are toast. so much for that trump pump, higher rates good for banks BS fake news narritive that's been fleecing everyone for months now
 

louky

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Uglytruth

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Over 2 years of media Trump bashing & talking down the economy except when berry sortos took credit.
I was always told that an interest rate high took 6 months to filter through the system. So a 1.5% increase from the pathetic 1% in 2015 is a 150% increase!

Hard to understand how paper and wall street control and manipulate the reality of life in the world.

https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135
 

louky

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I think my worst call the last 6 months was probably gold. Though it even bottomed and is up 150 and well profitable from where I started looking to scale in. Only thing bad about the call was I got totally caught up on timing chart from 2 year old musing that didn't miss for 2 straight years with exact precision. Stuck on July bottom while it continued lower. Like I posted before, correct primary direction next, 90% of the time, even if "wrong" on timing. That's why you scale in and plan your buys, 1/3rd, 1/6th, 1/10th, whatever it may be. Nobody can hit bottom perfect every time, if ever.
 
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louky

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Well, dollar call has been bad/slow to develop too, as it just continues to churn with no meaningful movement. Ultimate levels are coming, no doubt, but timing is always tricky.
 

louky

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Over 2 years of media Trump bashing & talking down the economy
I'm not political, have never voted and not even sure it matters who's in office. So this has nothing to do with bashing trump, but 2016 was largest central bank intervention in history, 5.5 trillion over two years. Trump pump is the fakest news of all time.
 

Goldhedge

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