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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

dpong

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dpong

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SPX gap up this morning on news is rather tepid. May be time to go short.
 

louky

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I guess fake news did it, not 1278 posted for years....bottom of inner box. Upside possibilities if 1296 support

All I know for sure is 1278 in focus, 1305 historical pivot above and 1318ish-1322ish is big fib zone of current moves


1318 Close = 76.4% of 1360 to 1184 on a closing basis.

1318 = 76.4% of 2016 High at 1377 to December 2016 low of 1124.

1322 = 76.4% of 1369 to 1167 on an intraday bas
 

Zed

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The strong action in the mining shares is suggesting to me that this correction in gold is over. Won't be for sure until we surpass the previous highs set earlier this month.
Hopefully we see follow through down here on Monday.
 

Goldhedge

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somethings afoot... the 'connected' folks know it....


Big banks expected to testify before House Financial Services Committee in March


  • J.P Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon and Wells Fargo's Tim Sloan are among the bank executives expected to testify, the sources said.
  • Bank of America's Brian Moynihan and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman are also expected to testify.
  • The CEOs would be testifying in front of Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who became the committee's chair earlier this month. One source told CNBC the testimony would likely be confrontational.
Ylan Mui| Fred Imbert

The chief executives from some of the biggest U.S. banks are expected to testify before the House Financial Services committee in March, two sources told CNBC.

J.P Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon and Wells Fargo's Tim Sloan are among the bank executives expected to testify, the sources said. Bank of America's Brian Moynihan and Morgan Stanley's James Gorman are also expected to testify.

The CEOs would be testifying in front of Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who became the committee's chair earlier this month. Waters recently met with Solomon and Dimon in private, people with direct knowledge of the matter have told CNBC.

One of the bank executives expected at the hearing told CNBC that Waters said "she wanted to get all the CEOs in to talk about how they could better support the economy."

One source told CNBC the testimony would likely be confrontational.

Waters has been a critic of the big banks throughout her career. Last year, she pledged to roll back deregulation efforts on the financial industry that were pushed through by the Trump administration and the Republican party.


[never mind that it was Clinton who signed the Dodd Fwank 1999 banking act that started this mess...]
 

Goldhedge

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That's a pop. 1300 like water,.son. 1305 pivot.
Meaning it's going to do a bounce off the ceiling....?


Only problem is as of right now, it's just talk.
Talking the markets up...

Something was afoot on Thursday.... or Wednesday perhaps...???

Interesting how 'poppy' TRX is with just a slight bump in the POG/S....

Screen Shot 2019-01-25 at 2.46.28 PM.png



These guys didn't get 'the news' until this morning...

Screen Shot 2019-01-25 at 2.48.34 PM.png



And these guys ... covering the gap?

Screen Shot 2019-01-25 at 2.49.25 PM.png
 

louky

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Meaning it's going to do a bounce off the ceiling....?
Meaning flawless pop off 1278 like i said would happen if it held...and boom fake news on que.

I didn't think it was going to hold, truthfully. Rare price action with moving up after hours too. Possible character change and new cycle birth. We'll see.
 

savvydon

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Hopefully we see follow through down here on Monday.
The late afternoon power through 1300 here was a Fuk Yoo to the pseudo/psych resistance at 1300, imo. Interested to see how we come out of the gate early next week - if there is any momentum whatsoever then $1350s easily on the table. 2c...
 
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louky

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straight down backtest from 1296 is normal and expected always. i'm not full bearish unless 1251 fails with a sustained move. 1278 or even 1269 testing around and hold would be very bullish.
1300 irrelevant, straight to 1305, like water
 
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louky

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crash leg nowish (by H2), fed complete policy reversal back to QE on roids. Then real blow off in stocks
Theyre already chirping telling everyone it's coming. Question is do they act now, full reversal or it's fake news to get stocks higher so they can raise rates - load more ammo
 

louky

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right now, i'd have to guess watch for divergent new high, get everyone even more bullish, then a crash in the fall. armstrong can still be right as stock market goes up forever and always. example, 87 and 98 were 20-35% drops, then kept going straight up. crash doesn't have to turn into a bear market. people might forget that after 00-03 and 07-09?


not a new thought for me of course, interesting the fed policy has become the main driver of the stock market. just in time....almost like it was planned years in advance?
Divergent high into sept and crashed it 20%. Now tell everyone youre gonna turn the spigots back on as needed. Action or talk?
 

louky

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Fed tells market they may stop rates and reduction of their balance sheet (qe)

Market loves it, gonna go parabolic

Now take 30 seconds and ask yourself, if economy is GOAT and fully recovered from 08.....why can't fed normalize rates and balance sheet?
 

Zed

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Meaning flawless pop off 1278 like i said would happen if it held...and boom fake news on que.

I didn't think it was going to hold, truthfully. Rare price action with moving up after hours too. Possible character change and new cycle birth. We'll see.
The late afternoon power through 1300 here was a Fuk Yoo to the pseudo/psych resistance at 1300, imo. Interested to see how we come out of the gate early next week - if there is any momentum whatsoever then $1350s easily on the table. 2c...
I have to say it's stronger than I hoped/expected... Gold stocks here seem to have discounted lower than we appear to be getting. Given that the snap back should be strong.
 

louky

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louky

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/\ big potential up there on that goldies chart for disappointment again (with well timed fed news pop off 1278)

...or it could always finally be real.....

Just sayin'...
 

Zed

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/\ big potential up there on that goldies chart for disappointment again (with well timed fed news pop off 1278)

...or it could always finally be real.....

Just sayin'...
Sitch normal... we are very used to that one! LOL.
 

Zed

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Stocks, longest bull market ever to be followed by shortest bear market ever?
Algo fever. Who knows what the new normal is going to be. They must have AI by now, AI cheats, throws the rules out and looks for any loophole it can find. Basically 5000 years of human financial history played out with the human mind driving markets. The last 15 years has seen a progression to computing power driving markets and soon it will all be AI, no doubt. I can't guess where this leads, I'm sure there is a "flaw in the slaw" and it will be realized at a point that its too late to correct but when, what, why and how?!

I see this as a fundamental shift, the question is will it really make a difference in the end or will it just change the curve. Maybe long ups and crashes will be the new norm. Crashes are hard to pick, especially if one is trying to understand what makes an algo 'run'.

Really not sure what to expect.

Anywhooooo... local business seems to be slowing down here. Not a great season so far.