right now, i'd have to guess watch for divergent new high, get everyone even more bullish, then a crash in the fall. armstrong can still be right as stock market goes up forever and always. example, 87 and 98 were 20-35% drops, then kept going straight up. crash doesn't have to turn into a bear market. people might forget that after 00-03 and 07-09?
not a new thought for me of course, interesting the fed policy has become the main driver of the stock market. just in time....almost like it was planned years in advance?
The late afternoon power through 1300 here was a Fuk Yoo to the pseudo/psych resistance at 1300, imo. Interested to see how we come out of the gate early next week - if there is any momentum whatsoever then $1350s easily on the table. 2c...
Algo fever. Who knows what the new normal is going to be. They must have AI by now, AI cheats, throws the rules out and looks for any loophole it can find. Basically 5000 years of human financial history played out with the human mind driving markets. The last 15 years has seen a progression to computing power driving markets and soon it will all be AI, no doubt. I can't guess where this leads, I'm sure there is a "flaw in the slaw" and it will be realized at a point that its too late to correct but when, what, why and how?!
I see this as a fundamental shift, the question is will it really make a difference in the end or will it just change the curve. Maybe long ups and crashes will be the new norm. Crashes are hard to pick, especially if one is trying to understand what makes an algo 'run'.
Really not sure what to expect.
Anywhooooo... local business seems to be slowing down here. Not a great season so far.