• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
straight down backtest from 1296 is normal and expected always. i'm not full bearish unless 1251 fails with a sustained move. 1278 or even 1269 testing around and hold would be very bullish.
1300 irrelevant, straight to 1305, like water
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
crash leg nowish (by H2), fed complete policy reversal back to QE on roids. Then real blow off in stocks
Theyre already chirping telling everyone it's coming. Question is do they act now, full reversal or it's fake news to get stocks higher so they can raise rates - load more ammo
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
right now, i'd have to guess watch for divergent new high, get everyone even more bullish, then a crash in the fall. armstrong can still be right as stock market goes up forever and always. example, 87 and 98 were 20-35% drops, then kept going straight up. crash doesn't have to turn into a bear market. people might forget that after 00-03 and 07-09?


not a new thought for me of course, interesting the fed policy has become the main driver of the stock market. just in time....almost like it was planned years in advance?
Divergent high into sept and crashed it 20%. Now tell everyone youre gonna turn the spigots back on as needed. Action or talk?
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Fed tells market they may stop rates and reduction of their balance sheet (qe)

Market loves it, gonna go parabolic

Now take 30 seconds and ask yourself, if economy is GOAT and fully recovered from 08.....why can't fed normalize rates and balance sheet?
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,131
Likes
12,535
Location
Just behind you.
Meaning flawless pop off 1278 like i said would happen if it held...and boom fake news on que.

I didn't think it was going to hold, truthfully. Rare price action with moving up after hours too. Possible character change and new cycle birth. We'll see.
The late afternoon power through 1300 here was a Fuk Yoo to the pseudo/psych resistance at 1300, imo. Interested to see how we come out of the gate early next week - if there is any momentum whatsoever then $1350s easily on the table. 2c...
I have to say it's stronger than I hoped/expected... Gold stocks here seem to have discounted lower than we appear to be getting. Given that the snap back should be strong.
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
/\ big potential up there on that goldies chart for disappointment again (with well timed fed news pop off 1278)

...or it could always finally be real.....

Just sayin'...
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,131
Likes
12,535
Location
Just behind you.
/\ big potential up there on that goldies chart for disappointment again (with well timed fed news pop off 1278)

...or it could always finally be real.....

Just sayin'...
Sitch normal... we are very used to that one! LOL.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,131
Likes
12,535
Location
Just behind you.
Stocks, longest bull market ever to be followed by shortest bear market ever?
Algo fever. Who knows what the new normal is going to be. They must have AI by now, AI cheats, throws the rules out and looks for any loophole it can find. Basically 5000 years of human financial history played out with the human mind driving markets. The last 15 years has seen a progression to computing power driving markets and soon it will all be AI, no doubt. I can't guess where this leads, I'm sure there is a "flaw in the slaw" and it will be realized at a point that its too late to correct but when, what, why and how?!

I see this as a fundamental shift, the question is will it really make a difference in the end or will it just change the curve. Maybe long ups and crashes will be the new norm. Crashes are hard to pick, especially if one is trying to understand what makes an algo 'run'.

Really not sure what to expect.

Anywhooooo... local business seems to be slowing down here. Not a great season so far.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,757
Likes
65,817
Location
Rocky Mountains
Need to drink more beer to get that AL output back up!
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Fed tells market they may stop rates and reduction of their balance sheet (qe)

Market loves it, gonna go parabolic

Now take 30 seconds and ask yourself, if economy is GOAT and fully recovered from 08.....why can't fed normalize rates and balance sheet?
Fed pause has proven bearish in the past

IMG_20190127_001100.jpg
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,026
Likes
4,923
Location
Bluegrass
Just talk so far, still 50 bil in liquidity coming out in jan (38 bil left to go) and another 43 billion scheduled by feb 15th. That's potentially 81 bil between now and then

IMG_20190127_084234.jpg


IMG_20190127_084831.jpg


Why should you care?

Well, look at chart above showing fed balance sheet reduction since jan 2018. Now realize that NYSE has made no new highs for 1 year.

NYSE is 1900+ stocks, not 30 like the dow. It topped out in jan 18 with global growth.

IMG_20190127_085204.jpg
 
Last edited:

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,757
Likes
65,817
Location
Rocky Mountains

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
41,757
Likes
65,817
Location
Rocky Mountains
TRX - rumor is the dollar has tanked,

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 2.19.47 PM.png



but the DXY chart is a yawn...

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 2.22.42 PM.png



5 yr with R line. Accurate? or should I have included 2014 ?

Screen Shot 2019-01-28 at 2.25.25 PM.png