• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
7,778
Likes
4,662
Location
Bluegrass
Yield Curve Inverts For The First Time Since 2007: Recession Countdown Begins

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/22/2019 - 09:46


Update: The most prescient recession indicator the market just inverted for the first time since 2007.

Don't believe us? Here is Larry Kudlow last summer explaining that everyone freaking out about the 2s10s spread is silly, they focus on the 3-month to 10-year spread that has preceded every recession in the last 50 years (with few if any false positives)... (fwd to 4:20)
 

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
12,760
Likes
10,510
Location
Springfield
Yes... Dent is going off about it.
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
868
Likes
641
Oil is starting to look like its rally since december is starting to peter out. might be up for a correction soon...
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
39,325
Likes
59,199
Location
Rocky Mountains
Happy Gold Bank Asset Tier 1 day. Apparently, the central banks of the world have just officially figured out what we all already know around here - Gold is Money.
Just like women... always changing their minds...
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,409
Likes
7,210
Location
Metro Detroit area
With the 3mo./10yr inversion - a recession is pretty likely within the next 12 months...just in time to really tank the economy in advance of the 2020 election. The Fed's work is finished on this...

Of course Trump knows this. The question is...what can he do to counteract? A recession has never before been avoided after said inversion...might this be the first?

This is his biggest challenge to date...how to counter the designed effort to take him down in 2020...
 

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
12,760
Likes
10,510
Location
Springfield
Of course Trump knows this. The question is...what can he do to counteract?
The best thing for him will be if the trigger is an exogenous shock. With the way the world is that is a distinct possibility. Then he will have "a plan" to react to this disaster rather than being 'responsible' for any US based incident. Whatever the fact the spin factor will decide ---> JMO
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
39,325
Likes
59,199
Location
Rocky Mountains
If 'something' happens in the world that effects economies Trump will be able to point to them as the cause.

Otherwise, the FED is on the road to be the blame....
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,409
Likes
7,210
Location
Metro Detroit area
If 'something' happens in the world that effects economies Trump will be able to point to them as the cause.

Otherwise, the FED is on the road to be the blame....
And as soon as Trump puts the FED in his crosshairs...and starts talking about them during his rallies and daily tweets...currencies are gonna be lively...
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
39,325
Likes
59,199
Location
Rocky Mountains
I posted this today. The Big Short

If you haven't seen it yet, do.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
39,325
Likes
59,199
Location
Rocky Mountains

Zed

Size doesn't count!
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
12,760
Likes
10,510
Location
Springfield

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
39,325
Likes
59,199
Location
Rocky Mountains
What do you guys use to do research? Morningstar folded 10K Wizard a few years back.