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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

savvydon

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Zed's view?
Bullish argument. Take your pick given the setup posted below and the one posted above: Bullish or bearish?
View attachment 130605
We are ripe for a move tomorrow what with fedspeak to blame it on. I am going to cast my lot with the bullish/falling wedge view. (this means all hands should immediately prepare for a deep and sustained plunge.);)
 

Zed

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Zed

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We are ripe for a move tomorrow what with fedspeak to blame it on. I am going to cast my lot with the bullish/falling wedge view. (this means all hands should immediately prepare for a deep and sustained plunge.);)
Yeah mebe.

However, it might already be baked in this cake.

My gold stocks are calm, rightly or wrong.
 

savvydon

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PMs all down somewhat this am despite weaker dollar. Silver:gold ratio up to a high for the move this morning...
 

the_shootist

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I can't embed this here because it's a webm file but it shows the changes over the years of the treasuries yield curve since the early 1980's. Just click on the link below!

Ignore the yield curve at your own peril!
 

Goldhedge

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Understanding the Yield Curve

The yield curve allows fixed-income investors to compare similar Treasury investments with different maturity dates as a means to balance risk and return. Learn how to calculate the yield curve, identify its different shapes, and explain what these shapes mean.

 

Pyramid

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Sell in May and go away. Summer doldrums right around the corner. :(
I concur with Cigarlover and others. I know nothing, but a cursory review of the charts with the summer doldrums in mind, we very likely could see sub-$14 silbur and sub-$1190 gold in the coming few months as there isn't much chart support between current and ~$14/~$1190 price points. Those percieved lows may me brief, and good buying opportunities, but look pretty likely IMHO. Not trading advice, but patience is a virtue in an apparently falling market. Good luck out there folks.
 

Zed

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Gold Seasonals

Post 2011 high.

AU Seasonal Bear.png


2000 - 2011 bull move.

AU Seasonal Bull.png


2000 to date...

AU Seasonal 2000-2019.png
 

Zed

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I think that the weak dollar strong gold crowd may get a surprise.
.... add to that it appears that the rate cut = stock rally crowd may also get a shock. We may be in rate cut = bad territory as it signals loss of control and policy failure at this point in the cycle.
 

Zed

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Yes we are drunker than the 2008 party, we are just a little less excitable. Not a good sign all in all.
 

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savvydon

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Gold Seasonals

Post 2011 high.

View attachment 130679

2000 - 2011 bull move.

View attachment 130677

2000 to date...

View attachment 130678
Interesting... May looking pretty robust for PMs on avaerge. At the risk of giving yet another reason for TPTB to trash the market even more, I’ll say it again. I feel like we are being lulled into complacecy so that we are looking away when the fireworks come. PMs and miners are close to oversold on a technical level, COT appears to be washed out and the Fed is fighting tooth and nail not to cut rates now never mind raise them further. It is setting up to be a perfect storm. I bought a few Uber cheap GDX 23 June calls on a whim this morning. A little piece of me is hearing the market say ‘Sell in May and go away (so no one else is left to play)’.
 

Zed

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Looking in the corners for signals.....

Hmmmmmmmm?!
 

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Zed

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Interesting... May looking pretty robust for PMs on avaerge. At the risk of giving yet another reason for TPTB to trash the market even more, I’ll say it again. I feel like we are being lulled into complacecy so that we are looking away when the fireworks come. PMs and miners are close to oversold on a technical level, COT appears to be washed out and the Fed is fighting tooth and nail not to cut rates now never mind raise them further. It is setting up to be a perfect storm. I bought a few Uber cheap GDX 23 June calls on a whim this morning. A little piece of me is hearing the market say ‘Sell in May and go away (so no one else is left to play)’.
If I were a bullion bank going long the gold sector I'd be buying into seasonal weakness, that I'd helped along with a damn good thumping, would be the sort of evil skull fuckery I'd do. Just sayin....

When they turn for real, assuming they will, they will use the market to greatest effect.

2c FWIW
 

Zed

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Tesla just has to hit the wall, crony capitalism its best. Elon should be screwed when the big brands get into this market.
 

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Strawboss

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Tesla just has to hit the wall, crony capitalism its best. Elon should be screwed when the big brands get into this market.
I have been burned 2x shorting Tesla in the past. There is not gonna be a 3rd for me.

I totally agree with your assessment by the way. I have believed for years that Tesla is a fraud...but still managed to figure out a way to lose money on it...lol
 

Zed

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I have been burned 2x shorting Tesla in the past. There is not gonna be a 3rd for me.

I totally agree with your assessment by the way. I have believed for years that Tesla is a fraud...but still managed to figure out a way to lose money on it...lol
Yeah, the short is a wealth hazard... but when she goes there is an army waiting to ride that fucker to zero.

GM style rescue anyone?
 

Zed

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MOVE Index ..... anyone got a chart source?

It's bond market volatility, many consider it to be the canary in the coal mine for 2019.
 

Zed

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savvydon

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Even though they are both at five year lows the gold chart looks especially comatose. Move along... nothing to see here.
 
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Zed

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MOVE Index ..... anyone got a chart source?

It's bond market volatility, many consider it to be the canary in the coal mine for 2019.
Seems to be a Merrill Lynch proprietary thing.
 

savvydon

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The long view... Gold Monthly. The "get excited" lines are clear.

View attachment 130700
When you step back and look it becomes really hard not to see a several thousand $ POG sometime in the next several years. Just sayin'...

What is that light red line below all the action, the 'Harry Dent you are an oracle' moving average?
 

jelly

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I think the bull potential has been negated by the miners. Though gold hasn't fallen out of the wedge quite yet (though its sitting on the bottom of the wedge) Mining shares have completely broken down. Likely to take gold with it. I'd put money on 1251 coming soon...
The only hope left is to have a clear bullish reversal in the mining shares today.

Zed's view?
Bullish argument. Take your pick given the setup posted below and the one posted above: Bullish or bearish?
View attachment 130605
 
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jelly

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Noone is talking oil right now. Precursor to a stock market correction?
Anyway, playing around with tradingview, potential Fib retracements. I'd target $57.5 for the initial lows on the pullback.
oil.png
 

savvydon

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I think the bull potential has been negated by the miners. Though gold hasn't fallen out of the wedge quite yet (though its sitting on the bottom of the wedge) Mining shares have completely broken down. Likely to take gold with it. I'd put money on 1251 coming soon...
The only hope left is to have a clear bullish reversal in the mining shares today.
I'll take it one more day out and say that if we don't see a strong close for the week with the miners then it feels like we are in the weeds for a bit. Won't be the first time I find myself on the wrong side of an options bet.
 

Goldhedge

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Martin's a dollar bull...
He's always been a $ bull. When the world economies implode they will seek safe haven...
 

Zed

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What is that light red line below all the action, the 'Harry Dent you are an oracle' moving average?
Yeah, when I flick from daily to monthly the chart keeps the MA so they are crazy long MA's
 

Zed

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He's always been a $ bull. When the world economies implode they will seek safe haven...
Yeah, he just gives some historical examples there.