• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,987
Likes
10,614
If the stock market breaks badly I think we get sucked down until traders can draw breath. This may take balls to trade. JMO
Thats what happened last time. THEY want us to think that is what will happen next time as well...

Except it wont. It will be different. Or not...
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Thats what happened last time. THEY want us to think that is what will happen next time as well...

Except it wont. It will be different. Or not...
Last time almost all assets were priced for perfection so even though gold made sense the good trades went out with the bad on margin calls. This time gold stocks are unloved so that dynamic will be mostly neutralized. Any selling here will just be nerves, step back and wait and see who wins sort of attitude. I can't see that it will be huge but I can see that it will be emotionally testing for the goldbugs. They have been trained to pavlovian perfection over the years. These guys expect a beating so to some degree the prophecy will be self-fulfilling.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Now ~+1.5% so regained yesterdays loss + some.
In the end +1.9% across the board today. Steady gains across the day.
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
921
Likes
730
It's basically gold & miners VS. the stock market right now. Stock market investors think the trade war correction is over and are jumping back in. No reason to own gold.
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
921
Likes
730
Sooo...1240 next? things are just looking plain fugly in the gold/miners right now. I see nothing positive. Heck, even many of the "pro's" have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. Miners are working on a seriously ugly head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.
 
Last edited:

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
Sooo...1240 next? things are just looking plain fugly in the gold/miners right now. I see nothing positive. Heck, even many of the "pro's" have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. Miners are working on a seriously ugly head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.
IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
 

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,987
Likes
10,614
IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
If you play it right - the gains from the one that hits big will more than pay for the 5 or 6 you miss...

Or not...lol
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
Go with the odds...

GDX Seasonal.png


Sep calls @ the end of July close to the money. 80% favorable?!
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Down ~ %1 ...

Slightly forboding feeling.

Oh well, there is always red wine!
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,597
Likes
5,412
Location
Bluegrass
Full price action, within pennies, posted years in advance

Full Box
1269
1278
1287
1296

Above that would be 1305, but lets not get ahead of ourselves

1300 irrelevant
But 1300 is irrelevant of course, just like 1200 was (hot butter). 1305 is the number to watch.....9
1305 is pivot between the boxes, 1296 top of lower box, 1359 bottom of upper box. Can't look at any higher targets until 05 is support
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,597
Likes
5,412
Location
Bluegrass
Hey Louky - did you ever figure out where this thing is gonna go once it gets out of this 1251-1296 box thing? Are we heading up...or smashing and crashing?

Asking for a friend...
Next significant bottom isnt suppose to be until summer, maybe julyish timeframe. Top was suppose to be may 2019, but they never even let it get above feb high


Based off old long term work, showed major top april/may ish again.
I posted the medium term outlook for major top during feb peak
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,597
Likes
5,412
Location
Bluegrass
Needs support 1296, top of the box. Then probably confirmation at 1305 pivot to be certain. Until then 1251 is still on the table
1251 is major historical pivot between 1269 bottom of current box and top of lower box at 1197. Beware below 1251 pivot, typically 1188 comes once that fails, although there is a small pivot at 1215.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
42,846
Likes
69,126
Location
Rocky Mountains
I mean, does it get any more straight forward than a completely manipulated sector where it's always their same numbers and never changes forever and always? :D
The day I hop on that train is the day it goes opposite....
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
The pressure is building in the gold/PM market. Huge COT OI numbers the last few days. Seems like the 1300 area is being defended pretty desperately. On the other hand, softer dollar, and markets slipping is putting some tailwind into the metal. Look at unencumbered bitcoin moving now. Should be an interesting remainder of the week.:popcorn:
Well the rest of the week was an unmitigated metals drubbing. Brutal! The dollar reversed up and the COT numbers show the commercials went way short on gold. You gotta give the big boys credit for tenacity. Me, I feel like I have earned yet another weekend safely ensconced in the abusive relationship I have with the PM world. Another beating, another pair of black eyes... Cue up the music - 'Stand by your man'! Ahh, it's good to be home!
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
921
Likes
730
The metals look ugly, but the miners had an intriguing bounce on friday despite the dump in the metals. Possibly the sign of atleast a dead-cat bounce starting?
Regardless, Options expiration is over now that we are heading into a new week. Should allow things to trade more freely.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Well the rest of the week was an unmitigated metals drubbing. Brutal! The dollar reversed up and the COT numbers show the commercials went way short on gold. You gotta give the big boys credit for tenacity. Me, I feel like I have earned yet another weekend safely ensconced in the abusive relationship I have with the PM world. Another beating, another pair of black eyes... Cue up the music - 'Stand by your man'! Ahh, it's good to be home!
A bit of a yawn here, off ~0.7% or so in my goldies.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Millennials are communists! Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh! They are gonna go there. Holy crap, god shave me!
 

Attachments

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Wolfey is howling...

 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
8,597
Likes
5,412
Location
Bluegrass
I'm just talking about the narrative being laid out, clearly. Fed will stop hiking soon, means theyre admitting the business cycle has ended, stocks crash bigly, policy reversal back to QE to save it, probably by 2100 s&p. Then best guess, i would start looking at 2020/21 maybe for something even bigger/worse.
Wait for it....
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Regained yesterdays losses... see-saw sores appearing!
 

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,987
Likes
10,614
Regained yesterdays losses... see-saw sores appearing!
Looks like good news in the elections down under...hope some good results for you and yours!!
 

Zed

Intergalactic Chart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
14,949
Likes
13,653
Location
Just behind you.
Looks like good news in the elections down under...hope some good results for you and yours!!
Shocked the hell out of the left much in the same way Trump did. It says more about how disconnected and left bias our media and pollsters are, they were only seeing what they wanted to see not what the Australian people are currently concerned with.

They were also playing to the millennials by targeting boomers wealth with tax and talking climate change. They seemed to forget that millennials have a firm eye on their inheritance as a midlife leg up. They scared the crap out everyone, none of the changes would have made anyone's life any cheaper... but they care... LOL!

Unfortunately, it is a poison chalice... much like Trump the Libs will have to deal with whatever train wreck is about to occur and no doubt will be blamed for it. Watch this space for a hard swing left in the next cycle or at best the one after.

JMO
 

Strawboss

Home Improvement Sales Trainee...
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
5,987
Likes
10,614
Shocked the hell out of the left much in the same way Trump did. It says more about how disconnected and left bias our media and pollsters are, they were only seeing what they wanted to see not what the Australian people are currently concerned with.

They were also playing to the millennials by targeting boomers wealth with tax and talking climate change. They seemed to forget that millennials have a firm eye on their inheritance as a midlife leg up. They scared the crap out everyone, none of the changes would have made anyone's life any cheaper... but they care... LOL!

Unfortunately, it is a poison chalice... much like Trump the Libs will have to deal with whatever train wreck is about to occur and no doubt will be blamed for it. Watch this space for a hard swing left in the next cycle or at best the one after.

JMO
Its funny how in Australia the conservatives are called "liberals"...

Probably from eating too much roo meat...