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Zed

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In gold it's rarely this easy, so I wouldn't be surprised if they make it drop to negate the breakout.
Yeah... well, you get to expect it, don't you?
 

louky

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savvydon

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Giving up about ~1% after yesterdays gains, 1.5hrs left to trade. Not bad all things considered.
The pressure is building in the gold/PM market. Huge COT OI numbers the last few days. Seems like the 1300 area is being defended pretty desperately. On the other hand, softer dollar, and markets slipping is putting some tailwind into the metal. Look at unencumbered bitcoin moving now. Should be an interesting remainder of the week.:popcorn:
 

Goldhedge

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What Can Go Wrong When Everything is so Wonderfully Controlled?

webbotreader (47) in investing • yesterday
Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

Gold is under British pressure this morning with the trade below the Maginot Line at $1,299.60, down $2.20 with the low at $1,296.60 and the high to beat at $1,304.20. Silver, however, is trading higher and at $14.80, close to the high at $14.825 with a low at $14.745. The US Dollar is still seeing some rather large support from all overseas trades with the value pegged at 97.125, up .005 after reaching 97.20 with the low at 97.075. All of this was done way before 5 am pst and the Comex open.

more at link
 

Goldhedge

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This Savage guy is a 'savage' when it comes to analysis!
 

Zed

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Apparently the point at which the US can't borrow quickly enough to pay the outstanding interest is approaching. Personally I doubt it, Fed owned paper simply recyles interest back to the Treasury. All they have to do is print and buy, surplanting genuine buyers... but of course the market will see the desperation and try to price accordingly. The Fed will be fighting that... This could be the point at which inflation really hits main street. So, is the math really driving the Fed into a corner?
 

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Zed

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Zed

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Flat but green down here ~+0.5% on the open.
 

Strawboss

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If the stock market breaks badly I think we get sucked down until traders can draw breath. This may take balls to trade. JMO
Thats what happened last time. THEY want us to think that is what will happen next time as well...

Except it wont. It will be different. Or not...
 

Zed

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Thats what happened last time. THEY want us to think that is what will happen next time as well...

Except it wont. It will be different. Or not...
Last time almost all assets were priced for perfection so even though gold made sense the good trades went out with the bad on margin calls. This time gold stocks are unloved so that dynamic will be mostly neutralized. Any selling here will just be nerves, step back and wait and see who wins sort of attitude. I can't see that it will be huge but I can see that it will be emotionally testing for the goldbugs. They have been trained to pavlovian perfection over the years. These guys expect a beating so to some degree the prophecy will be self-fulfilling.
 

jelly

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Sooo...1240 next? things are just looking plain fugly in the gold/miners right now. I see nothing positive. Heck, even many of the "pro's" have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. Miners are working on a seriously ugly head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.
 
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savvydon

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Sooo...1240 next? things are just looking plain fugly in the gold/miners right now. I see nothing positive. Heck, even many of the "pro's" have been pretty quiet the past few weeks. Miners are working on a seriously ugly head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart.
IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
 

Strawboss

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IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
If you play it right - the gains from the one that hits big will more than pay for the 5 or 6 you miss...

Or not...lol
 

Zed

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IDK but I obviously can't get out of my own way. It is looking bad for my June GDX calls so what do I do? Buy some cheap Sept calls. Some folks just can't seem to learn...
Go with the odds...

GDX Seasonal.png


Sep calls @ the end of July close to the money. 80% favorable?!
 

louky

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Full price action, within pennies, posted years in advance

Full Box
1269
1278
1287
1296

Above that would be 1305, but lets not get ahead of ourselves

1300 irrelevant
But 1300 is irrelevant of course, just like 1200 was (hot butter). 1305 is the number to watch.....9
1305 is pivot between the boxes, 1296 top of lower box, 1359 bottom of upper box. Can't look at any higher targets until 05 is support
 
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louky

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Hey Louky - did you ever figure out where this thing is gonna go once it gets out of this 1251-1296 box thing? Are we heading up...or smashing and crashing?

Asking for a friend...
Next significant bottom isnt suppose to be until summer, maybe julyish timeframe. Top was suppose to be may 2019, but they never even let it get above feb high


Based off old long term work, showed major top april/may ish again.
I posted the medium term outlook for major top during feb peak
 

louky

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Needs support 1296, top of the box. Then probably confirmation at 1305 pivot to be certain. Until then 1251 is still on the table
1251 is major historical pivot between 1269 bottom of current box and top of lower box at 1197. Beware below 1251 pivot, typically 1188 comes once that fails, although there is a small pivot at 1215.
 

Goldhedge

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I mean, does it get any more straight forward than a completely manipulated sector where it's always their same numbers and never changes forever and always? :D
The day I hop on that train is the day it goes opposite....