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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Why is DBank so important?
Derivatives, counterparty risk, contagion etc... I read somewhere that there were no more than 1 to 6 steps between DB and every financial entity on the planet. Think Lehman on steroids. So if they cannot perform bank A and B are in trouble, if bank A and B fail company C,D,E and F are technically insolvent. etc, etc, until JPM blows up over many multiple defaults.

We know this...

https://www.investopedia.com/articl...sche-bank-most-systemically-important-dbk.asp

... everyone knows this.

Ergo there is a plan to stabilize the situation, should she blow.

Maybe it becomes the crisis on which they force greater financial integration across Europe. The Euro needs a central debt market if it is to work long term, maybe this is where they will go. i.e. If we "Europe" don't get our stuff together and "save" (nationalize) DB then the global financial system is @ risk and we are doomed to a depression. How can "Europe" say no... just another step on the road to the USE vision... then they will want armed forces. What could go wrong with that?

I dunno, but they know it is coming so there must be a plan.
 

Goldhedge

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“I met with a Swiss life insurance guy and he said (with regards to zero interest rates): ‘It’s really depressing because we understand as executives of this company that our definition of success is to extend the time to bankruptcy… Bankruptcy is certain. We are trying to get there as slowly as possible.'
 
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The whole political thing is a mess. It's too easy for Trump to put blame on the people he worked with when he was a presidential candidate and so many people were caught. I know Trump didn't do anything wrong BUT he may end up as bad as Calvin Coolidge who has failed to use the country’s economic boom to help struggling farmers. Why Trump didn't admit that the actions of the things that they were doing was wrong is beyond logic. Rest assured, he will never be the worst president if someone had studied deep in American History! :)


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Goldhedge

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"We look at the latest IMF Financial Stability Report. Where will the systemic risks end up?"

I get that they think the world economy is supposed to run like a well oiled machine... when have they ever been right?

How do we know they can keep the motor running when we've never not had them diddling the machine controls?
 

Goldhedge

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'credit' sounds so much better than 'debt'....


Financial Markets To Federal Reserve: Time To Start Cutting Rates
BY JOHN RUBINO ◆ MAY 27, 2019 0 COMMENTS

In late 2018 the US stock market tanked, in effect holding a gun to its own head and threatening to pull the trigger unless the Fed stopped raising interest rates. The Fed, painfully aware that an equities bull market is an existential threat in today’s hyper-leveraged world, quickly caved, promising no more rate increases if the market would just put down the gun.

This worked for a little while. Stocks jumped to new record highs and unicorn tech IPOs started pouring out of Silicon Valley. Normal, which is to say booming, markets were back.

But of course it couldn’t last. An overleveraged economy is not just addicted to new credit, but to ever-increasing levels of new credit. So stable interest rates won’t stave off withdrawal. From here on out only steadily (or steeply) falling interest rates will delay the inevitable crisis.

That’s the signal the financial markets are now sending the Fed, as stocks begin to roll back over …
 

Zed

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Credit is what the bank extends to you when you take on new debt. Expansion of the money supply with a key stroke.
Kinda... it feeds velocity, which is oddly low, which says a lot. But really it is only if you count deposits as money, which the bigger Ms do but in fact, they are just contractual obligations. The base M's are the supply, which is multiplied by the system... it's kinda like "market cap", it cannot be a real number, it is impossible to realize and only remains lofty while everyone stays in the stock. It can go pop and quickly. This whole thing is like a shark, if it slows too much it can't breathe and it drowns. It must always grow or it must die.

I dunno.

Low mood today, mebe I am just bored with it all.
 

savvydon

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Kinda... it feeds velocity, which is oddly low, which says a lot. But really it is only if you count deposits as money, which the bigger Ms do but in fact, they are just contractual obligations. The base M's are the supply, which is multiplied by the system... it's kinda like "market cap", it cannot be a real number, it is impossible to realize and only remains lofty while everyone stays in the stock. It can go pop and quickly. This whole thing is like a shark, if it slows too much it can't breathe and it drowns. It must always grow or it must die.

I dunno.

Low mood today, mebe I am just bored with it all.
It is starting to get long in the tooth, that’s for sure.
 

Zed

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Hemke asks, 'What is the bond market telling you?'
It's telling me that Bubba wants his ugly way with us. We are .................ed!
 

Zed

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Hmmmmm.... I wonder if the fuse is burning?

China's interbank funding market is starting to freeze.
In 2007 it was US commercial paper that froze indicating the coming issues.

One thing that is certain: Baoshang is just the tip of the iceberg. According to UBS analyst Jason Bedford, who in 2017 was the first to highlight Baoshang’s troubles, there are several other banks that have “identical leading risk indicators” to Baoshang. Hengfeng Bank, Jinzhou Bank Co. and Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank all failed to publish their latest financial statements, have a large portion of their balance sheets invested in “loan-like investment assets” and are subject to negative local media coverage, he said in a note to clients published Tuesday.
 

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Goldhedge

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from pdf: "One thing that is certain: Baoshang is just the tip of the iceberg."
 

Zed

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Is it me or is the smoke coming from all corners of the room?
 

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stAGgering

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"...and the thingsss they are ah changing."

Platinum and Palladium, industrial metals, showing... industry for a change. Wow.

 

Goldhedge

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Zed

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So... is this a junior partner floating a trial balloon for the guy's that have the gold and grunt to make it meaningful? You know, the China, gold, crypto theory.
 

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Zed

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Gold Daily... on the edge but over the 50DMA. A solid break of 1300 would be a good way to finish the week. Maybe Louky's 1305 +. For now the fence is hurting my ass.

AU-D-31052019.png
 

savvydon

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So... is this a junior partner floating a trial balloon for the guy's that have the gold and grunt to make it meaningful? You know, the China, gold, crypto theory.
Makes sense to me. Sun’s gonna rise in the east.
 

savvydon

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More of the hmmmmmmm factor!
Wow... certainly feels like we are getting closer. At least, that is what I keep running into. Unless it is just my own little room full of mirrors - but I don’t think so...
 

Zed

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Makes sense to me. Sun’s gonna rise in the east.
A prolonged trade war could see a currency bloc as a defensive response. If you remove the incentive to make nice they have a bunch of things on the economic shopping list that might get up Uncle Sam's nose.
 

Zed

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Wow... certainly feels like we are getting closer. At least, that is what I keep running into. Unless it is just my own little room full of mirrors - but I don’t think so...
Eerie creaking sounds coming from this old ship. A few small leaks etc. We are afloat but somehow I don't feel secure.
 

savvydon

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A prolonged trade war could see a currency bloc as a defensive response. If you remove the incentive to make nice they have a bunch of things on the economic shopping list that might get up Uncle Sam's nose.
Columbia did lots of that in the 70s, 80s, and 90s...;)
 

Zed

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My ASX goldies +3.7% on avg today. 2 hours to trade. Feeling good for a Friday, what was once THE day nerves set it almost EVERY week.
 

Zed

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Columbia did lots of that in the 70s, 80s, and 90s...;)
Getting up Sam's nose for fun and profit!

LOL... too old for that shit now, I'd blow a gasket.