• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Varmint Hunter

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Midas Supporter
Joined
Apr 10, 2010
Messages
462
Likes
872
Are we having a fake Gold rally with Silver not coming along?
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,862
Likes
2,404
Are we having a fake Gold rally with Silver not coming along?
I don't think so. I will steal a thought from brother Irons, who opined some time ago that when the rally at last ignites gold will start the fireworks out. This makes sense to me. Gold is the grand daddy of PMs, and the only one whose role is almost exclusively monetary. I say the smart money starts to ease into gold and once the cat is out of the bag, silver (poor man's gold) comes along for the ride - ultimately catching and then passing gold's move up proportionally. 2c
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
Way over my pay grade. Someone knows, but it for damn sure ain’t me.

I have middle aged bulge in the middle. I fight like heck against it to prevent further sag, but gravity, she is a fierce mistress.
Could be giving us a time horizon, money seeking security until the worst is over. So the 3 year stuff is getting the biggest bid. If they thought a short sharp crash was coming then they'd be in shorter paper and risk rolling it at a worse price if they were early. 3 year paper is telling us that big money is looking out to ~2022 to get back into the market. I think that 2022 is one of Armstrongs turning points.

I dunno... but?!
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
Gary Savage Update: Did Gold just complete the handle?

The handle completion is defined by breaking the resistance that defines the cup. The line across the top, I don't see how we are there.
 
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
184
Likes
94
A market crash and hyper rally on gold to the moon in October, 2019?

comments in “Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019,” it added. “Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/tru...riff-on-all-mexican-imports-from-june-10.html

I bet Trump won't listen to Mexican musical birds anytime soon.

What could happen is that it sets up a lasting rally into 2020 elections and gives Trump the edge. What dadda' think?
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,862
Likes
2,404
Could be giving us a time horizon, money seeking security until the worst is over. So the 3 year stuff is getting the biggest bid. If they thought a short sharp crash was coming then they'd be in shorter paper and risk rolling it at a worse price if they were early. 3 year paper is telling us that big money is looking out to ~2022 to get back into the market. I think that 2022 is one of Armstrongs turning points.

I dunno... but?!
That is a straightforward and elegant explanation for this peculiar phenomena we are currently looking at in the market.

Certainly feels like winds are whipping up and there is some stormy weather ahead.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
A market crash and hyper rally on gold to the moon in October, 2019?

comments in “Tariffs will be increased to 15 percent on August 1, 2019, to 20 percent on September 1, 2019, and to 25 percent on October 1, 2019,” it added. “Tariffs will permanently remain at the 25 percent level unless and until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/tru...riff-on-all-mexican-imports-from-june-10.html

I bet Trump won't listen to Mexican musical birds anytime soon.

What could happen is that it sets up a lasting rally into 2020 elections and gives Trump the edge. What dadda' think?
Don't a good number of your cars get built down there?

Top 10 Meh-hick-hen exports!
  1. Vehicles: US$115.5 billion (25.6% of total exports)
  2. Electrical machinery, equipment: $81.9 billion (18.2%)
  3. Machinery including computers: $75.4 billion (16.7%)
  4. Mineral fuels including oil: $29.7 billion (6.6%)
  5. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $19 billion (4.2%)
  6. Furniture, bedding, lighting, signs, prefab buildings: $10.6 billion (2.4%)
  7. Plastics, plastic articles: $9.5 billion (2.1%)
  8. Vegetables: $7.2 billion (1.6%)
  9. Articles of iron or steel: $6.7 billion (1.5%)
  10. Gems, precious metals: $6.7 billion (1.5%)
This isn't going to be fun for anyone.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
2,862
Likes
2,404
I suspect this is only going to shine the light a little brighter and help reveal what we have already become. Of course, shouldn’t have much effect on the top .1%, so who cares anyway, right?

PS - dig the new avatar! Looks like we are gearing up for a new day.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
Hmmmmmmmmm... Russians are coming?

 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
40,017
Likes
60,917
Location
Rocky Mountains
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
184
Likes
94
How accurate is Armstrong's predictions? I have heard of him but I haven't followed him in the past. 2022 is pretty far out, a lot can happen between now and then. Earth may be flat by then.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
40,017
Likes
60,917
Location
Rocky Mountains
How accurate is Armstrong's predictions? I have heard of him but I haven't followed him in the past. 2022 is pretty far out, a lot can happen between now and then. Earth may be flat by then.
More accurate than Cramer's
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
BTW Gold Weekly has broken out, we should see another go @ that 1340/50 area in good time, say by end July. 1312 & 1328 are probably going to be sticky on a weekly basis but we have a shot.

AU-W-20190531.png
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
How accurate is Armstrong's predictions? I have heard of him but I haven't followed him in the past. 2022 is pretty far out, a lot can happen between now and then. Earth may be flat by then.
This is huge, to resolve the issues existing in the system by 2022 will be hard and painful. In terms of the size of this thing, 2022 isn't long as we are hopefully resolving the accumulative excesses of 7 to 8 decades. This will most probably see another reconstruction of the international monetary system, aka Bretton Woods etc. If done well that will give us a base to grow from, but until then the potential damage is big. 2022 might end up feeling like a "one point landing".





Hopefully, there is no real issue and I am Chicken Little... but... hmmmmmmmm... nope, I'm just not buying that.
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,567
Likes
7,585
Location
Metro Detroit area
How accurate is Armstrong's predictions? I have heard of him but I haven't followed him in the past. 2022 is pretty far out, a lot can happen between now and then. Earth may be flat by then.
He is worthy of your consideration...and I dont say that about very many people...
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
40,017
Likes
60,917
Location
Rocky Mountains
The first page is interesting...

“Put not your trust in money, but put your money in trust.” Oliver Wendell Holmes​

Key Takeaways

• Trust is the basic value of interpersonal cooperation and the cement of our social order. The erosion of our “trust capital” can be observed in many areas of society.
• The breakdown of trust in the international monetary order is manifesting itself in the highest gold purchases by central banks since 1971 and the ongoing trend to repatriate gold reserves.
• Gold reaffirmed its portfolio position as a good diversifier as trust in the “Everything Bubble” was tested in Q4/2018. While equity markets suffered double digit percentage losses, gold gained 8.1% and gold mining stocks 13.7%.
• The normalization of monetary policy was abruptly halted by the stock market slump in Q4/2018. The “monetary U-turn” that we already forecasted last year has begun.
• Recession risks are significantly higher than discounted by the market. In the event of a downturn, negative interest rates, a new round of QE, and the implementation of even more extreme monetary policy ideas (e.g. MMT) are to be expected.
• When it comes to trust in investments, our vote is clear. Trust looks to the future, forms itself in the present, and feeds itself from the past. Gold can look back on a successful five-thousand-year history as sound money


“Gold is ‘clotted’ trust or, if you like, clotted mistrust against all other promises of value. That leads us to the trail of its strange price movements: Its price rises wherever mistrust arises (mistrust of the future, politics, rulers), and it falls or stagnates where trust prevails." Roland Baader​
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
Everything was "over owned" going into 2008. Everything was "priced for perfection"... the net result was that good trades got sold to cover margin calls on bad ones. We have not got the same setup so it will probably not play the same way. People may go short expecting the same but long liquidation should not be as much of a factor. That should translate to any weakness being quite short lived.

JMO

etc...
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
quick question for anyone, what was the lowest interest rates back in 2008? today's rates?
Now we are around the 2008 crisis lows in the Ten Year... the lows came post crash.
 

Goldhedge

Moderator
Site Mgr
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
40,017
Likes
60,917
Location
Rocky Mountains
quick question for anyone, what was the lowest interest rates back in 2008? today's rates?
For home loans? Around 3.25%??

May have been 2.x% subprime as well...?
 

Strawboss

America...Love it...or GTFO
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
4,567
Likes
7,585
Location
Metro Detroit area
Do you think gold and silver are going to temporarily crash along with the market like happened in 2008? (assuming we get another stock market crash)
I dont see that happening. It has been my contention for years that $14 silver is bedrock and I havent seen anything yet to change that opinion. So there is that. Also - things never repeat the same as last time. If it did - everyone would be rich. So there is that too...

I see the Yuan down this evening and gold up... thats different... granted its only a couple hours of habbening...but it is different.
 
Joined
Oct 16, 2010
Messages
184
Likes
94
Do you think gold and silver are going to temporarily crash along with the market like happened in 2008? (assuming we get another stock market crash)
I doubt so, the mechanics are a lot different today. today we have an unique situation out there that says that mining is lagging and having a hard time catching up with demand. Not many new big discoveries and that's alarming. Now we have countries that are now buying gold and then the Swift system. So many catalysts going forward. This ain't 2008 by any stretch but it propelled gold to new highs in 2011. We will have a magnified glorious run that will outrun the fox.
 

Zed

Intergalactic Smart Arse
Midas Member
Site Supporter
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
13,151
Likes
10,955
Location
Just behind you.
Gold 30 min Chart. Current move trendline. Running into that 1312 level of resistance level. Support @ ~ 1309/07 needs to hold for the short term picture to stay positive. Lower will probably break trend.

AU-30-20190603.png
 

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
7,904
Likes
4,758
Location
Bluegrass



Leveraged loan indexes tracks institutional loans, for buy outs and such. Market is larger than the high yield bond market and has weak regulation. In recent fed notes, LL's have been flagged as "a risk worth monitoring" (ie admission the economy is slowing).

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/21/the-booming-leveraged-loan-market-is-getting-riskier.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrar...shavebeenignoredforoveriveyears/#1b7adc7e3df3

View attachment 120710


https://www.thestreet.com/amp/markets/as-recession-warnings-flash-top-officials-meet-in-secret-over-junk-loan-frenzy-14977371

U.S. Officials Meet in Secret Over Junk-Loan Frenzy as Recession Alarms Flash
Bradley Keoun
Updated Jun 1, 2019 11:21 AM EDT Original: May 31, 2019

No details were provided on the gist of the discussion, though according to the statement the panel heard an "update" from Craig Phillips, a counselor to Mnuchin, on recent market developments involving "corporate credit and leveraged lending."
 
Last edited:

louky

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Jun 8, 2014
Messages
7,904
Likes
4,758
Location
Bluegrass
Bottom of upper box, 1359. That's where it needs support for way up high targets. Until then there's risk of as low as 1251 still
From February top, "risk" was to 1251 historical pivot. 1269 bottom of the box held so far. Needless to say, that's very bullish if it's the final bottom.
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
872
Likes
643
Snapback moves like this in the miners always make me nervous. Do you jump in or wait for a pullback?
There's a couple big gaps already. Do we just keep chugging higher, or do they fill?