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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Friday nerves in play this AM on the ASX Goldie scene. -0.75%
... got over the nerves by the close. +0.75%
 

Zed

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Gold Hourly... taking a swing up. Need to convincingly cross that fat red one!

AU-1H-20190607-2.png
 

Zed

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You may have noticed, for the first time in quite a long time gold has my full attention. That is normally reserved for my bread and butter trading activity, anyway something about golds action is drawing me in this time. I can't say it means anything reliable but the old ears pricked up on this move.

Oh do shut up you silly old bugger!
 

Strawboss

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Goldhedge

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Gold Hourly... taking a swing up. Need to convincingly cross that fat red one!
"Convincingly" would be good. I might even hop on the junior train...
 

savvydon

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Silver is blowing through $15 this morning. Seeing silver wake up would be a confirming signal that this gold rally is the real deal.
 

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Sitting right on top of it this morning on the heels of a piss poor job report and the market getting all hot to trot out a rate cut.

The rest of the day should be very illuminating.
Heard on the radio news of the air that the reason for the 75K jobs instead of 175K was that employers are leery of the future.

Said something about the FED lowering rates because the economy is softening....

I'm thinking that just maybe folks aren't applying because they have jobs already....??
 

savvydon

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Heard on the radio news of the air that the reason for the 75K jobs instead of 175K was that employers are leery of the future.

Said something about the FED lowering rates because the economy is softening....

I'm thinking that just maybe folks aren't applying because they have jobs already....??
I'm no economist and don't have access to lots of numbers. I think there are a lot of lower paying jobs out there that barely add up to a living wage. I'm sure a lot of people have dropped out of the job market on the heels of what their investments/nest egg has been able to do for them so far this century. I do feel like there is this rapidly rising mass hysteria that the economy is softening and it is time to cut rates. As to the softening, I have been watching that coming down the pike for years. As to rate cuts, I think that will be the last gasp of the dying patient clinging to life on the respirator. Surely this is just entering the next phase of what we have to go through to get to where we are going to end up - whatever that is...

I obviously can't get this thing into clear focus. It feels, though, like the chickens are coming home to roost.
 

Strawboss

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So far miners not confirming the strong metals move this morning. This makes me sad.:(
They are skeered...

Several years of constant and unrelenting abuse takes its toll.

If its the real deal this 6th time...it will all work out...as louky says - we need to see 1359 act as support...
 

savvydon

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They are skeered...

Several years of constant and unrelenting abuse takes its toll.

If its the real deal this 6th time...it will all work out...as louky says - we need to see 1359 act as support...
I know this is true.

I do have a couple of long shot June GDX calls that are very close to being in the money. Next time I promise not to be so greedy and impatient. Maybe this time, though, I could catch a break... just a little one?;)
 

Goldhedge

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They are skeered...

Several years of constant and unrelenting abuse takes its toll.

If its the real deal this 6th time...it will all work out...as louky says - we need to see 1359 act as support...
Fool me once, shame on you....
 

Strawboss

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Fool me once, shame on you....
Yeah - thats a common mindset for sure...but it cant be applied universally either...

For example - if you had a kid you were teaching to ride a bike and told them that soon they would be riding like a pro...and then they subsequently fall and skin their knee, or chip a tooth or something - and they adopt the mindset of "fool me once shame on you..." - they will never master the skill...

Sometimes you gotta blow up an account or 3 before getting the hang of how these manipulative banking frauds operate...
 

jelly

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I'm holding out for a pullback to enter long positions, but i'm not sure if we're going to get one! It's been a while since gold has been in the non-stop rally mode. 2016?
 

Strawboss

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I'm holding out for a pullback to enter long positions, but i'm not sure if we're going to get one! It's been a while since gold has been in the non-stop rally mode. 2016?
In that situation its best to move down to a smaller timeframe chart for an entry...maybe a 30 minute or hour chart. Wait for the pullback on that timescale for entry but use a fairly tight stop. You might have to take a couple/few small losses before you get an entry you can stick with and then adjust your stop accordingly.
 

Zed

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Visit wolfstreet.com daily, he is normally worth the effort.
 

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Zed

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Gold 4H is the cleanest view... smack, right into that wall!

AU-4H-20190608-1.png
 

Zed

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Gold Daily is looking overbought, my best guess here is that we need to catch our breath and correct or consolidate. Staying over the 132x mark on a daily closing basis would be desirable. 1300 test not out of the question. 1340 break negates if momentum is still with us. Watch this space.
 

Zed

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PS> The 1380-1400 target is still on the table for now, the daily pattern can still resolve that way after a consolidation.
 

Zed

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Gold Monthly (last bar incomplete.. obviously!)

.... anywhooooo note the red line on the RSI. When we start to operate above that we are back in bull mode for a good while. Note we are knocking on the door of a critical level on both price and RSI at the same time. Third time is the charm?

AU-M-20190608-1.png
 
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Gold Monthly (last bar incomplete.. obviously!)

.... anywhooooo note the red line on the RSI. When we start to operate above that we are back in bull mode for a good while. Note we are knocking on the door of a critical level on both price and RSI at the same time. Third time is the charm?

View attachment 133276
I may want to wait until next week to see what gold brings. Just learned that Mexican tariffs is resolved so no 5% hike. That means bad news for gold because the Fed Reserve now have reduced the chances of a reduction in the rates but again it may also be bad for the markets because everything is priced so high.
 

Zed

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I may want to wait until next week to see what gold brings. Just learned that Mexican tariffs is resolved so no 5% hike. That means bad news for gold because the Fed Reserve now have reduced the chances of a reduction in the rates but again it may also be bad for the markets because everything is priced so high.
I don't really believe that gold is reacting to the current news stream. I think gold buyers are looking forward a few years here, IMO money doesn't run to gold if it thinks a short term glitch is on the horizon. In that case, they run to short-dated T Bills. This just looks to me like it has been a long term wind up and it is getting ready to step up the gradient.
 

louky

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Gold CoT

Funds increased their net longs by the largest amount ever (speed of increase) . Overall position is modest, but higher than the peak in February

Banks doubled their short position, also at the fastest pace ever and the highest level since November 2016.

Producers loaded short as well, back to feb levels

Combined, commercials have their highest net short position since april 2018.

Also, igoldadvisor switched his videos to huge green lines, pointing straight up to 1500+ with no pull back :p
 
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louky

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I'm holding out for a pullback to enter long positions, but i'm not sure if we're going to get one! It's been a while since gold has been in the non-stop rally mode. 2016?
It ran straight from 1251 within pennies to 1359 within pennies during summer 2017 with no pullbacks on fake NORK news.
 

louky

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louky

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Theyre still painting "no go" on the chart, yet it keeps marching higher.

After 1296 support...sounds familiar? Kept marching higher


CoT doesnt look favorable either, if that's your thing. Another red flag for a top here

Sound familiar? Unfavorable CoT, then..........

To be honest, right now it looks like gold is gonna spring board above 1296. At least for a pop
Then it happened almost instantly, 1359 top
 
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